kimberly
Diamond Member
act i RENAISSANCE
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 11,930
My Charts
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Post by kimberly on Jun 24, 2019 20:57:53 GMT -5
He's by far the most streamed artist on Earth, if anyone's gonna compete that's not named Adele or Rihanna then it'll be Ed Hell, doesn't it seem more likely that "I Don't Care" would get a streaming and sales boost during album release to add to its much better airplay advantage and challenge for #1 rather than a brand new track? Wouldn't the "complete album" downloads hurt its digital sales sum? |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Jun 24, 2019 21:00:00 GMT -5
I mean, at this point, are we really saying anyone is a sure bet anymore? I can't believe that in the years when Katy went from 100 to 10, Taylor went from #1s to flash-in-the-pan #2s, etc, etc, etc, we're still saying XYZ is sure bet for #1. It's like we'll never learn. Is it possible? Sure. But it's also possible that anyone from Justin Timberlake to Wiz Khalifa could bounce out a new song and, if the circumstances are aligned perfectly, they could be the ones to do it. Adele could release a new song at the perfectly planned time and it could debut as low as #15. Old Town Road will drop low enough sooner than later that a song could just get the right amount of overall points to overtake it. And then OTR could step back into #1 again. All this guaranteed talk after all that's happened the last couple months is just silly. It's like you keep getting smacked in the head over and over again and you think it'll never happen again, until it does.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jun 24, 2019 21:20:30 GMT -5
Why is everyone so sure one of the Ed Sheeran album tracks is going to compete for #1? He's by far the most streamed artist on Earth, if anyone's gonna compete that's not named Adele or Rihanna then it'll be Ed He's not "by far the most streamed artist on Earth." He's not the most streamed artist on Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube or any other streaming platform for that matter, lol. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jun 24, 2019 21:28:18 GMT -5
OTR is really just one of those anomaly songs that come around once or twice in a decade that just dominate beyond all reason. I don't think it's a reflection of the biggest artists being unable to topple it that they're somehow weak or flopping. It's just a testament to how strong a track it is. I always take #2 debuts/peaks as #1(b) songs in my head considering that they'd be #1 if the songs ahead of them weren't there.
I might end up biting my words, but I doubt Lil Nas X scores another hit as huge as OTR ever again so I have no issues with the song dominating for as long as it possibly can.
At this point in time, so much has changed. Rihanna and Adele could drop tomorrow and perform terribly. We don't know. I feel like beyond debating which major artist could potentially dethrone OTR from the #1 spot, we should refrain from insisting that songs/albums from major artists will DOMINATE because things could always go the other way.
I'll say this, though. I've definitely enjoyed watching the Hot 100 chart this year than I did last year and that's saying a lot because my favorite artist dominated last year.
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Jun 24, 2019 22:07:16 GMT -5
Hell, doesn't it seem more likely that "I Don't Care" would get a streaming and sales boost during album release to add to its much better airplay advantage and challenge for #1 rather than a brand new track? Wouldn't the "complete album" downloads hurt its digital sales sum? Yes...on Digital Songs, where for total purposes, CMAs count as negative sales. On the Hot 100, they have no effect, so itβll get a boost from proxy attention. Not that itβs gonna challenge OTR again, its boost wonβt take it higher than 30k which isnβt nearly enough, just correcting the misconception on methodology. |
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Post by Mayman on Jun 24, 2019 22:33:13 GMT -5
Assuming it stays on the chart, if Ocean Eyes hits 20 weeks without entering the top 50, will it stay on the Hot 100 and not go recurrent?
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 24, 2019 22:57:01 GMT -5
^I wouldn't be surprised if they made a El Perdon/Close Friends type of exception for it.
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kacpi
Charting
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 378
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by kacpi on Jun 25, 2019 1:23:14 GMT -5
Wow! Truth Hurts had barely been in Top 20 on iTunes but it jumped to #3! I am so happy for Lizzo, if she continues to kill it, she may be another Top 3 hit and I'm here for it!
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slw84
7x Platinum Member
I only tolerate legends
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 7,897 
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Post by slw84 on Jun 25, 2019 4:48:26 GMT -5
Long overdue hit for lizzo
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jun 25, 2019 4:51:50 GMT -5
Safe to say IICHY and Senorita will serve as the first two singles off Shawn's next album (due to their success), right?
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jun 25, 2019 4:52:41 GMT -5
Long overdue hit for lizzo I was surprised to find out that Cuz I Love You was her third album. |
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thelegends
2x Platinum Member
Banned
Joe Biden : βYou ainβt blackβ
Joined: September 2017
Posts: 2,588
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Post by thelegends on Jun 25, 2019 5:44:21 GMT -5
I leave for a week and this shit happens. See you in 2 weeks and I hope that y'all have calmed down by then.
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jayhawk1117
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2013
Posts: 2,758
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Jun 25, 2019 8:12:32 GMT -5
Good thing i never said anything was guaranteed.... Lmao
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2019 9:45:36 GMT -5
I wish Juice was the hit Truth Hurts is but I'm happy for Lizzo anyway.
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lazer
2x Platinum Member
Joined: January 2018
Posts: 2,628
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Post by lazer on Jun 25, 2019 9:47:55 GMT -5
Wow, the numbers for Senorita keep on growing, happy for Shawn and Camila.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 25, 2019 9:59:28 GMT -5
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/06/25
1(=) Khalid - Talk 154.86(+0.82)
2(=) Jonas Brothers - Sucker 144.86(-0.04)
3(=) Lil Nas X - Old Town Road (feat. Billy Ray Cyrus) [Remix] 127.93(-1.39)
4(=) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 122.92(+0.98)
5(=) Sam Smith & Normani - Dancing with a Stranger 114.64(-0.71)
6(=) Post Malone - Wow. 103.96(-1.08)
7(=) Shawn Mendes - If I Can't Have You 91.52(+3.19)
8(=) Ava Max - Sweet but Psycho 82.65(-1.22)
9(=) Panic! At the Disco - Hey Look Ma, I Made It 82.38(+1.03)
10(=) Billie Eilish - bad guy 81.40(+2.13)
18(=) Blake Shelton - God's Country 56.03(+1.27) 20(+1) DaBaby - Suge 53.99(+1.16) 47(+9) Taylor Swift - You Need To Calm Down 35.47(+2.23) 49(+4) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 35.37(+1.13) 80(+11) Garth Brooks - Dive Bar f/Blake Shelton 23.44(+1.94) - (-) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - SeΓ±orita 13.82(+3.16)
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kacpi
Charting
Joined: January 2019
Posts: 378
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Post by kacpi on Jun 25, 2019 10:22:27 GMT -5
Woah, Old Town Road doesn't deserve to fall so quickly on the radio... It's been there for less than three months and already losing audience.
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kacpi
Charting
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Posts: 378
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Post by kacpi on Jun 25, 2019 13:54:57 GMT -5
It's a meme/streaming song, through and through. In my opinion, radio is only playing it to appease and attract some of the streaming demo, and because it's become a cultural event record. But, as for the song itself, it's probably not something programmers will hang onto any longer than they have to. I'm also thinking it's potentially the kind of song that won't get much, if any, gold recurrent attention in the years to come. Its star is burning very brightly for the time being, but then it'll probably completely disappear like Macarena, Harlem Shake, etc, that came before it. Just the vibe I'm getting with the massive amounts of consumption it has had for a prolonged period. The mass burnout is coming. Yeah, I know, just got kinda sad about it :( Charts will be more interesting though. OTR decreasing on the radio makes beating it not impossible anymore. If SeΓ±orita has a massive radio support and keeps on having these streaming numbers, it may be the next number one in a few weeks, but I really hope it won't lol. At this point OTR has to break the freaking record, otherwise I'll be upset |
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Choco
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james dean daydream
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Post by Choco on Jun 25, 2019 14:18:50 GMT -5
Assuming it stays on the chart, if Ocean Eyes hits 20 weeks without entering the top 50, will it stay on the Hot 100 and not go recurrent? I believe that as long as it's gaining on two components and the label is technically "pushing" it, it will stay on the chart. But considering it's only there due to strong streaming with very little sales or airplay... it will probably vacate after 20 weeks. Still a great run for it tho! It happened already to "when the party's over", but the album release managed to get it to #29 so it was allowed to re-enter. |
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davidjl123
Charting
Joined: November 2017
Posts: 77
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Post by davidjl123 on Jun 25, 2019 14:26:01 GMT -5
Lil Nas (& Billy Ray) bouta cockblock Post, Taylor (2x), Urie, Mendes (2x?), Sheeran, Bieber, Billie, Camila?
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Choco
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james dean daydream
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Post by Choco on Jun 25, 2019 14:54:01 GMT -5
Lil Nas (& Billy Ray) bouta cockblock Post, Taylor (2x), Urie, Mendes (2x?), Sheeran, Bieber, Billie, Camila? Yes... would have loved to see all those songs at #1 :( Maybe not "I Don't Care" or "ME!" though :kii: and "If I Can't Have You" ain't having the best legs either. |
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jodakyellow
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2018
Posts: 1,535
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Post by jodakyellow on Jun 25, 2019 14:56:21 GMT -5
Imagine this scenario: 3 songs in a row were blocked by OTR 05/11 Taylor Swift (ft PATD) 05/18 Shawn Mendes05/25 Ed Sheeran (ft Justin) Another round! 06/29 Taylor Swift07/06 Shawn Mendes (ft Camila) *most likely* 07/13 Ed Sheeran (ft Khalid) [???] this will be the most crazy thing in this year this would be one of the craziest things in Hot 100 history, imo |
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Au$tin
Diamond Member
Pop Culture Guru
Grrrrrrrrrr. Fuckity fuck why don't you watch my film before you judge it? FURY.
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Post by Au$tin on Jun 25, 2019 17:28:32 GMT -5
Good thing i never said anything was guaranteed.... Lmao *insert sure Jan gif here* |
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Post by livelightning on Jun 25, 2019 18:38:19 GMT -5
Why is everyone so sure one of the Ed Sheeran album tracks is going to compete for #1? He's by far the most streamed artist on Earth, if anyone's gonna compete that's not named Adele or Rihanna then it'll be Ed tbh if drake can't do it, you can't be sure anyone can. |
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noober
Charting
Joined: January 2018
Posts: 208
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Post by noober on Jun 26, 2019 10:59:59 GMT -5
He's by far the most streamed artist on Earth, if anyone's gonna compete that's not named Adele or Rihanna then it'll be Ed tbh if drake can't do it, you can't be sure anyone can. Adele? |
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Post by livelightning on Jun 26, 2019 11:06:41 GMT -5
tbh if drake can't do it, you can't be sure anyone can. Adele? idk man i think drake is bigger at this point. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Jun 26, 2019 11:11:05 GMT -5
I canβt believe the guaranteed discussion is still happening... π€¦πΌββοΈπ€¦πΌββοΈπ€¦πΌββοΈπ€¦πΌββοΈπ€¦πΌββοΈπ€¦ββοΈπ€¦ββοΈπ€¦ββοΈπ€¦ββοΈπ€¦ββοΈπ€¦π½ββοΈπ€¦π½ββοΈπ€¦π½ββοΈπ€¦πΎββοΈπ€¦πΎββοΈπ€¦πΎββοΈπ€¦πΎββοΈπ€¦πΎββοΈπ€¦π»ββοΈπ€¦π»ββοΈπ€¦π»ββοΈπ€¦πΏββοΈπ€¦πΌββοΈπ€¦ββοΈ
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Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 14,171
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 26, 2019 11:23:10 GMT -5
No one can dethrone OTR without the gigantic flow of memes, just accept it, I'm trying to after seeing the streaming numbers from last week.
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tanooki
Diamond Member
2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
Joined: August 2017
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Post by tanooki on Jun 26, 2019 13:00:23 GMT -5
I thought Adele wasn't gonna release until later this year?
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Jun 26, 2019 13:05:12 GMT -5
I thought Adele wasn't gonna release until later this year? Yeah, though the "by thanksgiving" is for the whole album, so I'd expect the first single sometime from august to october |
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