Billboard Hot 100 - 8/17/2019

[Deleted]

Aug 3, 2019 2:24:12 GMT -5 noober said:

So OTR is locked for 19th weeks #1?

Yes but not in a row

[spitfire]

Drake has the entire top 13 on Apple Music and 17 of the top 20. All the Care Package songs are in the top 25 Apple Music. I am shocked at how well the Care Package is doing, hopefully some of the songs chart.

[Deleted]

How is this project doing compared to More Life and Scorpion's first day?

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 3, 2019 7:30:18 GMT -5 spitfire said:

Drake has the entire top 13 on Apple Music and 17 of the top 20. All the Care Package songs are in the top 25 Apple Music. I am shocked at how well the Care Package is doing, hopefully some of the songs chart.

At this point, it's not a matter of hoping. The songs off the project are doing better on the second day, at least on Apple Music US. I thought they'd start dipping, but instead, they're rising.

He'll debut AT LEAST 15 new songs on the Hot 100. Doesn't matter if they debut at #86-#100, they'll debut.

Scorpion did much better on Spotify than Care Package will do and only two out of it's 25 songs debuted outside of the top 40. The charts are much weaker now. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if all 17 tracks debuted. Especially with no other big release in sight this week.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 3, 2019 7:35:03 GMT -5 @pete said:

How is this project doing compared to More Life and Scorpion's first day?

It's doing extremely well. Especially for a compilation album filled with old, previously released songs. Only thing is that it'll put up much lower Spotify numbers than both More Life and Scorpion did. There aren't up to 5 albums that have dropped in 2019 that did as well as it's currently doing on Apple Music.

[moonlite]

Aug 3, 2019 8:33:08 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Aug 3, 2019 7:35:03 GMT -5 @pete said:

How is this project doing compared to More Life and Scorpion's first day?

It's doing extremely well. Especially for a compilation album filled with old, previously released songs. Only thing is that it'll put up much lower Spotify numbers than both More Life and Scorpion did. There aren't up to 5 albums that have dropped in 2019 that did as well as it's currently doing on Apple Music.

The only album that dropped this year that did better than Drake right now on AM was thank u next, so yea

Aug 3, 2019 8:30:50 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Scorpion did much better on Spotify than Care Package will do and only two out of it's 25 songs debuted outside of the top 40. The charts are much weaker now. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if all 17 tracks debuted. Especially with no other big release in sight this week.

I think they'll put recurrence on the songs, so they'll have to be top 50. Which is dumb since none of the songs were officially released

[thegreatdivine]

moonlite actually, this might end up doing better than thank u, next did on Apple Music. Songs off Care Package are #1-#5, #7-#13, #16-#18, #21 and #24 on Apple Music. Drake still has two songs in the top 15 with No Guidance at #6 and Money in the Grave at #15.

thank u, next had 12 songs at #1-#12 and she doesn't dominate Apple Music as hard as Drake does. Care Package will definitely pull more streams off Apple Music than thank u, next did, but it'll even out because thank u, next also performed well on Spotify and Care Package won't do that.

I expect at least 150 million US-based streams from this project by the end of the tracking week. Might do more.

Drake will be the most streamed artist of the week in the US.

I doubt Billboard will exact the recurrence rule on any of these songs. They've never been released in any official capacity before now.

*This might sound silly, but Billboard loves Drake. They go out of their way to promote his efforts because him slaying on their charts is good press. They've published 3 articles on Care Package since it got released. I'm sure they'll publish a review. Publish another article when the projected figures come in. They'll keep writing articles about the project till the week it debuts. They want Drake to break the record for most Billboard entries and he will with songs off this project.

Billboard will give sizeable amount of press to any artist that can in turn drive traffic to their site.

[Enigma.]

Boyfriend 2.08m on Spotify, Drake has 4 songs in top 20.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 3, 2019 9:10:24 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Boyfriend 2.08m on Spotify, Drake has 4 songs in top 20.

Now that official Spotify numbers are out, expect HDD's prediction in a couple of hours. Personally, I'm predicting 75-100K for Care Package and a top 5 debut for Ariana's new song.

[Mayman]

Yeah I don't think Ariana will debut #1. I think she could get #2 or #3 though.

[xyz]

i'd be surprised if Ariana debuts higher that OTR, Bad Guy, Señorita and Truth Hurts. Those 4 songs are still too strong in all metrics. She needed huge spotify stream numbers, even YNTCD debut higher.

[cassiuscasanova]

Aug 3, 2019 11:32:32 GMT -5 xyz said:

i'd be surprised if Ariana debuts higher that OTR, Bad Guy, Señorita and Truth Hurts. Those 4 songs are still too strong in all metrics. She needed huge spotify stream numbers, even YNTCD debut higher.

The song feels very copy and paste so I’m not surprised 

[Xander]

Boyfriend has a music video, lyric video and audio version, #1 on iTunes and will have a radio deal in the beginning of the radio tracking week. I think if it manages to do around 2M daily streams on Spotify and kind’ve stabilize/grow on Apple Music, it could have a chance to debut at #1

[thegreatdivine]

I wonder when HDD is gonna post their predictions.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 3, 2019 11:56:07 GMT -5 Xander said:

Boyfriend has a music video, lyric video and audio version, #1 on iTunes and will have a radio deal in the beginning of the radio tracking week. I think if it manages to do around 2M daily streams on Spotify and kind’ve stabilize/grow on Apple Music, it could have a chance to debut at #1

The video has already taken a massive dip in views in it's second day. Drake's grip on Apple Music won't be letting up anytime soon. She could either rise or take a dip on Spotify during the weekend, we'll have to see and a #1 on iTunes US doesn't mean much these days. I could see her debuting in the top 5, maybe top 3. A #1 debut is out of the picture.

[Xander]

Aug 3, 2019 12:17:19 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Aug 3, 2019 11:56:07 GMT -5 Xander said:

Boyfriend has a music video, lyric video and audio version, #1 on iTunes and will have a radio deal in the beginning of the radio tracking week. I think if it manages to do around 2M daily streams on Spotify and kind’ve stabilize/grow on Apple Music, it could have a chance to debut at #1

The video has already taken a massive dip in views in it's second day. Drake's grip on Apple Music won't be letting up anytime soon. She could either rise or take a dip on Spotify during the weekend, we'll have to see and a #1 on iTunes US doesn't mean much these days. I could see her debuting in the top 5, maybe top 3. A #1 debut is out of the picture.

yeah but drake is irrelevant to the conversation because he isn’t the ‘competition’ in a sense.. She just has to outdo otr. None of drake’s tracks will outdebut boyfriend.

[thegreatdivine]

Xander I never meant to say Drake was competition for her on the Hot 100. I meant to say, she won't be pulling in nearly as many streams on Apple Music as you think. We also have to wait to see how her song holds on Spotify. She'll score a top 10 debut for sure. I'm just not sure it'll be #1. That's all I was trying to say.

[xyz]

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

OTR, bad guy, Señorita, and Truth Hurts are all strong in metrics, so I won't be surprised if Boyfriend debuts at #5.

[HolidayGuy]

Grande's new single dropped Friday, and it will have a radio promotion on Monday? It got a good amount of pay yesterday0 No. 43 on Mediabase's rolling top 40 chart.

[Choco]

For a huge name like Ariana, #43 on first day is fairly low. Not bad considering there's no deal, but also not #1-debut worthy.

Drake is irrelevant to the "boyfriend" debut . It doesn't need to be #1 on Apple Music, it just needs to outdo "Old Town Road"... but that one's grip on Youtube will probably give it a comfortable lead.

[renfield75]

Aug 2, 2019 14:56:38 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Aug 2, 2019 14:53:35 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

So does that make Garth Brooks the last big digital/streaming hold out?

Aaliyah, albeit for different reasons than her estate/label being *against* digital/streaming.

Her uncle aka her Blackground Records owner has the label as defunct (thus none of the music for sale) to avoid paying lawsuits, which is still a purposeful holdout though. 

I think I angrily blocked that from my mind. I have her CDs, so I'm good on Aaliyah's music, but it's infuriating how Barry Hankerson has crapped all over her legacy and forced her into increasing obscurity.

[kingvavis]

I think it's becoming more evident that the song to replace Old Town Road at number one is a song that's already charting. Old Town Road is most likely to have a decent fall in points this week due to no remixes or music videos to sustain or gain it's chart points. So a song like Senorita, Truth Hurts or maybe Ransom if that song blow-oh-whoa-ohs up even more can replace in the next few weeks to come.

[kimberly]

Aug 3, 2019 9:05:35 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

moonlite actually, this might end up doing better than thank u, next did on Apple Music. Songs off Care Package are #1-#5, #7-#13, #16-#18, #21 and #24 on Apple Music. Drake still has two songs in the top 15 with No Guidance at #6 and Money in the Grave at #15.

thank u, next had 12 songs at #1-#12 and she doesn't dominate Apple Music as hard as Drake does. Care Package will definitely pull more streams off Apple Music than thank u, next did, but it'll even out because thank u, next also performed well on Spotify and Care Package won't do that.

Grande's whole album was literally #1-12 she had no more songs to chart like she literally couldn't have done better, so I don't exactly get your point there, but yes, Drake pulls more AM streams due to the urban nature of the platform (same reason why Grande outperforms Swift and other pop girls on there).

"Boyfriend" is already up at #13 on AM, but it is mostly because Drake's songs are falling fast. Grande has been stuck behind "Truth Hurts" for a while now, for comparison.

thank u, next also had vinyls, cassettes, and CDs released with the album, Care Package won't get those sales figures either. It is doing extremely well for a recycled B-side compilation project, though.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 4, 2019 3:08:17 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Aug 3, 2019 9:05:35 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

moonlite actually, this might end up doing better than thank u, next did on Apple Music. Songs off Care Package are #1-#5, #7-#13, #16-#18, #21 and #24 on Apple Music. Drake still has two songs in the top 15 with No Guidance at #6 and Money in the Grave at #15.

thank u, next had 12 songs at #1-#12 and she doesn't dominate Apple Music as hard as Drake does. Care Package will definitely pull more streams off Apple Music than thank u, next did, but it'll even out because thank u, next also performed well on Spotify and Care Package won't do that.

Grande's whole album was literally #1-12 she had no more songs to chart like she literally couldn't have done better, so I don't exactly get your point there, but yes, Drake pulls more AM streams due to the urban nature of the platform (same reason why Grande outperforms Swift and other pop girls on there).

"Boyfriend" is already up at #13 on AM, but it is mostly because Drake's songs are falling fast. Grande has been stuck behind "Truth Hurts" for a while now, for comparison.

thank u, next also had vinyls, cassettes, and CDs released with the album, Care Package won't get those sales figures either. It is doing extremely well for a recycled B-side compilation project, though.

You literally just said everything I said. We're both saying the same thing. We both agree that Drake ultimately pulls more streams from Apple Music than anyone else. We both agree that Ariana Grande dominated both Apple Music and Spotify when thank u, next dropped. We both agree that 100K units for old, previously released B-side songs is impressive.

It's just telling of how the industry has gone to s**t now. The biggest artists have to pull all the stops: vinyls, cassettes, tour/merch/whatever silly bundle and gimmick they can pull just to get solid first week numbers and most of these artists aren't even coming near 500K units.

I feel like if things continue like this, people will develop more of an appreciation for arists that managed to put up solid debut week figures during this 2010's decade. Chance the Rapper/NF both had tour/merch bundles and both didn't reach 150K units. That says a lot.

[spicymapping]

Boyfriend has already dropped from the top spot on spotify - is it even gonna make top 5?

[xyz]

Aug 4, 2019 10:23:28 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Boyfriend has already dropped from the top spot on spotify - is it even gonna make top 5?

Not likely, its about to drop from #1 in iTunes too and the MV views are stuck

[Gary]

With Old Town Road reclaiming #1

[WolfSpear]

We should see a pretty good onslaught of Drake this week. Is it enough for him to take the all-time entry crown from Glee?

[Gary]

Maybe