Billboard Hot 100: 08/31/2019

[pcg4]

Aug 17, 2019 3:49:46 GMT -5 rfucom said:

Lover album will be release next weel right?

Yes, it will be released in less than one week. Could she have an album bomb in the Hot100?

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 17, 2019 4:25:18 GMT -5 pcg4 said:

Aug 17, 2019 3:49:46 GMT -5 rfucom said:

Lover album will be release next weel right?

Yes, it will be released in less than one week. Could she have an album bomb in the Hot100?

as long as she release the album on streaming.

[Gary]

Speaking of albums bombing - This one will come out big due to all the ticket & merchandise bundle promotions that have been happening. She will score huge numbers week 1. Then much like the singles so far, will drop big in week 2

[gabe]

Aug 17, 2019 8:27:42 GMT -5 Gary said:

Speaking of albums bombing - This one will come out big due to all the ticket & merchandise bundle promotions that have been happening. She will score huge numbers week 1. Then much like the singles so far, will drop big in week 2

This post is full of such bullshit. Nobody was talking about albums bombing. I'd think that you of all people would know what an album bomb is considering you lurk on the H100 threads at all times of the day. Maybe you could look in your chart archives to see that Taylor's last album, Reputation, stayed on top for three weeks and was the NUMBER ONE ALBUM OF 2018. Finally, Lover has had two singles so far - ME! and You Need To Calm Down (seriously, you do). Not only did ME! debut early based on just a few days of airplay, it broke the record for the largest jump on the chart, 100-2. In its second week, it slipped 2-3 due to a song debuting higher than it. In regards to You Need to Calm Down, the song debuted at #2 and descended to a spot in the upper teens the following week. Since the second week of release, it's show incredible stability. A chart watcher as dedicated as you ought to realize that this is becoming more common. Other songs in the past few months have had similar trajectories (break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored, If I Can't Have You) but I don't see you shit talking them. Your attempt to diminish Taylor's ongoing success was neither cute nor successful. 

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I think he might album bombs in Hot 100 terms of having a bunch of album tracks make the chart due to the album's release.


...I think

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 16, 2019 20:08:42 GMT -5 @pete said:

Young Thug is currently dominating AM - his new songs are #1-3, #5-8, #10-11, #15, #17-18, #20-23, #26 and #32, in addition to The London at #34 and #49. I think they might perform like Care Package songs on the Hot 100.

I'm also expecting Ransom to be at least top 5 this week on the Hot 100 as the remix with Juice Wrld is #39 on AM along with the original at #9.

And the other new songs on the AM top 40 are 2 Quality Control songs at #29 and #37, Lover by Taylor at #31, and Won't Be Late by Swae Lee/Drake at #36.

I hope he does decent numbers on Spotify, too. I also hope songs off So Much Fun hold better than songs off Care Package did. If the songs can hold till Monday/Tuesday, he'll pull at least 100-120K units by the end of the tracking week and that should be enough for a #1 debut, something he's never gotten before. I'm happy for Young Thug!

[thegreatdivine]

gabe you didn't have to attack Gary like that.

Also, Taylor hasn't shown "incredible stability" on the Hot 100. Taylor's singles don't spend a lot of weeks in the top 10 if and when they manage to debut there.

Her singles usually get a ton of support in the first week and then by the second week, that support drops drastically.

The same thing will happen with her album numbers. If she manages to put up good streaming numbers in her first week, the drop will be massive in the second week.

I'm expecting at least a 750-800K debut because of all the lengths she's going to to secure a high debut, but anyone expecting Taylor to still be moving over 100K units of her album by the 5th week will be in for a lot of disappointment.

You need a dedicated streaming fanbase to still pull those numbers 4-6 weeks after your album drops and Taylor just doesn't have that.

If you feel the need to attack me, too, I'll be happy to refer you back to this thread weeks from now when the very thing I'm talking about happens.

As for the songs off Lover having a bomb on the Hot 100, it all depends on if she makes each of them available as singles for purchase on iTunes. Her fans love buying her singles off iTunes (which is why she has the most iTunes #1's amongst all artists [35 if I'm not mistaken]). I could see her debuting all the songs off the album on the Hot 100, even if most of them debut from the top 40 below. Hot 100 bombs don't usually last so the songs falling off the Hot 100 chart in the second week won't be because of anything she did or didn't do. That's just how it goes.

I really hope Taylor does well on Lover's debut week, but more importantly, I hope the album has longevity in the US because that's what the streaming era demands.

reputation didn't have that longevity, despite debuting with over a million units in it's first week.

[rimetm]

Aug 17, 2019 8:46:27 GMT -5 gabe said:

This post is full of such bulls**t. Nobody was talking about albums bombing. I'd think that you of all people would know what an album bomb is

There's this wonderful thing called wordplay that has apparently eluded you in this case. A similar example would be something like "Speaking of dumpster fires, how about that current administration?".

Aug 17, 2019 8:46:27 GMT -5 gabe said:

Not only did ME! debut early based on just a few days of airplay, it broke the record for the largest jump on the chart, 100-2. In its second week, it slipped 2-3 due to a song debuting higher than it.

You're a platinum member, I see you a lot in these chart threads, and yet you're making these sorts of statements that don't hold up to scrutiny of data. The first sentence is superfluous, the jump was only due to the desynch between the metrics' tracking by your own acknowledgement. As to the second, you may not have said it explicitly, but there's definitely an implied "only" in there. The data showed that the song fell more than 50% in actual points that week (from ~67.3k to ~28.1k).

Aug 17, 2019 8:46:27 GMT -5 gabe said:

In regards to You Need to Calm Down, the song debuted at #2 and descended to a spot in the upper teens the following week. Since the second week of release, it's show incredible stability.

As the guy who organizes fhas' data for the year-end, it's my duty to inform you that you might want to be careful with that statement. The initial fall wasn't quite 50% (~37.8k to ~20.7k), but the song's stability was thanks to radio and the points appear to have parabola'd ([37.8-20.7-19.7-]17.3-17.5-18.1-17.8-16.9) and it seems poised to pull a ME! imminently now that radio has peaked.

Aug 17, 2019 8:46:27 GMT -5 gabe said:

Other songs in the past few months have had similar trajectories (break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored, If I Can't Have You) but I don't see you s**t talking them. Your attempt to diminish Taylor's ongoing success was neither cute nor successful. 

Because it's clear that Taylor has peaked and is slowly becoming a fanbase-reliant artist with hype peaks and no longevity ala BTS. For Shawn, this isn't a disappointment but rather a new commercial peak. For Ariana, that was late in the singles run for the era, plus she actually had better longevity in actually spending the full run in the top 50.

[thegreatdivine]

rimetm I don't think I've ever seen a more worthy reply on this site. Teach me your ways, Sensei.

[Gary]

No worries, 

For future reference, Gabe doesn't like anything I post.  I put him on my block list so I don't respond to him unless someone quotes him or tags me.

Best thing to do ignore and move on.

[lazer]

I’m impressed that Taylor Swift has a higher debut than Young Thug on Spotify.

[imbondz]

Taylor Swift’s first two singles sucked that’s why they’re not lasting in the top 10. She has plenty of streaming support when she releases great music.

[moonlite]

Aug 17, 2019 10:20:51 GMT -5 lazer said:

I’m impressed that Taylor Swift has a higher debut than Young Thug on Spotify.

Why do you think it's impressive? She's Taylor Swift and Thug has always flopped before this album. And rappers like him always do "bad" on Spotify relatively compared to how they do on AM

[rfucom]

Aug 17, 2019 10:20:51 GMT -5 lazer said:

I’m impressed that Taylor Swift has a higher debut than Young Thug on Spotify.

Spotify is Pop leaning that's why.

[rfucom]

Aug 17, 2019 10:07:24 GMT -5 Gary said:

No worries, 

For future reference, Gabe doesn't like anything I post.  I put him on my block list so I don't respond to him unless someone quotes him or tags me.

Best thing to do ignore and move on.

I think gabe loves you so much that he replies so long for the single word BOMB.

[jebsib]

Possibly the most negative poster I have come across in 15 years. A real pain.

[Deleted]

Nothing in that statement is false, bad, or unexpected. However I think she could still pull big numbers even if no bundles were involved.

[Deleted]

All Taylor Swift songs this era debuted high on Spotify (except The Archer, which was released in the middle of the day), so I don't really find Lover at #1 surprising. The question is whether or not something finally sticks this era. I hope it does.

[rfucom]

I hope Circles will not be release next week tho.

[Choco]

Aug 17, 2019 10:41:54 GMT -5 rfucom said:

Aug 17, 2019 10:20:51 GMT -5 lazer said:

I’m impressed that Taylor Swift has a higher debut than Young Thug on Spotify.

Spotify is Pop leaning that's why.

I wouldn't call Spotify pop leaning just because Pop can go #1 there while stalling at #34 or so on Apple Music. It just has a broader reach with 217M monthly users vs 50M for Apple, so there's gonna be a bit more variety. Overall I'm fairly sure rap music would still dominate in terms of overall streams, especially if you count some hits that appeal to multiple genres (like OTR or "Sunflower").

Up until a year ago a Pop song going #1 on Spotify was a rare sight.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 17, 2019 10:26:38 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Taylor Swift’s first two singles sucked that’s why they’re not lasting in the top 10. She has plenty of streaming support when she releases great music.

The lead singles off 1989, reputation and Lover were all wack. She doesn't know how to pick lead singles, especially now that she's gone pop. She didn't used to have that issue when she still made country music.

What disappoints me with her choices in lead singles is that she always has way better songs on her album, which could have served as lead singles.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 17, 2019 11:01:33 GMT -5 Choco said:

Aug 17, 2019 10:41:54 GMT -5 rfucom said:

Spotify is Pop leaning that's why.

I wouldn't call Spotify pop leaning just because Pop can go #1 there while stalling at #34 or so on Apple Music. It just has a broader reach with 217M monthly users vs 50M for Apple, so there's gonna be a bit more variety. Overall I'm fairly sure rap music would still dominate in terms of overall streams, especially if you count some hits that appeal to multiple genres (like OTR or "Sunflower").

Up until a year ago a Pop song going #1 on Spotify was a rare sight.

I find that most pop acts pull in more global streams on Spotify that rap acts. Rappers might dominate Spotify US, but more often than not, it's a pop act dominating Spotify Global.

[Choco]

I wouldn't say that's just on Spotify. Pop music is still the main genre on most international markets. Even then acts like J Cole, Drake and even Post have reached new highs on foreign charts after streaming started to show up on the charts.

(And again, the foreign userbase is around 191M for Spotify vs only 22M for Apple, so there's bound to be some more variety).

For further evidence look at how Taylor Swift performed as a country act vs a pop act on international charts.

[gabe]

Aug 17, 2019 10:00:55 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Aug 17, 2019 8:46:27 GMT -5 gabe said:

This post is full of such bulls**t. Nobody was talking about albums bombing. I'd think that you of all people would know what an album bomb is

There's this wonderful thing called wordplay that has apparently eluded you in this case. A similar example would be something like "Speaking of dumpster fires, how about that current administration?".

Aug 17, 2019 8:46:27 GMT -5 gabe said:

Not only did ME! debut early based on just a few days of airplay, it broke the record for the largest jump on the chart, 100-2. In its second week, it slipped 2-3 due to a song debuting higher than it.

You're a platinum member, I see you a lot in these chart threads, and yet you're making these sorts of statements that don't hold up to scrutiny of data. The first sentence is superfluous, the jump was only due to the desynch between the metrics' tracking by your own acknowledgement. As to the second, you may not have said it explicitly, but there's definitely an implied "only" in there. The data showed that the song fell more than 50% in actual points that week (from ~67.3k to ~28.1k).

Aug 17, 2019 8:46:27 GMT -5 gabe said:

In regards to You Need to Calm Down, the song debuted at #2 and descended to a spot in the upper teens the following week. Since the second week of release, it's show incredible stability.

As the guy who organizes fhas' data for the year-end, it's my duty to inform you that you might want to be careful with that statement. The initial fall wasn't quite 50% (~37.8k to ~20.7k), but the song's stability was thanks to radio and the points appear to have parabola'd ([37.8-20.7-19.7-]17.3-17.5-18.1-17.8-16.9) and it seems poised to pull a ME! imminently now that radio has peaked.

Aug 17, 2019 8:46:27 GMT -5 gabe said:

Other songs in the past few months have had similar trajectories (break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored, If I Can't Have You) but I don't see you s**t talking them. Your attempt to diminish Taylor's ongoing success was neither cute nor successful. 

Because it's clear that Taylor has peaked and is slowly becoming a fanbase-reliant artist with hype peaks and no longevity ala BTS. For Shawn, this isn't a disappointment but rather a new commercial peak. For Ariana, that was late in the singles run for the era, plus she actually had better longevity in actually spending the full run in the top 50.

so to argue my points you bring up data that nobody was talking about? gary was talking about CHART POSITIONS and i provided them in return. stay hating while taylor stays on top (or number 2  :kii: )

[mzumii]

Aug 17, 2019 10:56:06 GMT -5 rfucom said:

I hope Circles will not be release next week tho.

I wish Post would say something about it.... he's so silent rn

[kcdawg13]

Sunflower is gonna evade the 52 week rule for sure, the song is #14 on the Hot 100 and still in the Top 10 on Spotify. It refuses to die.

[tanooki]

Aug 17, 2019 11:31:48 GMT -5 gabe said:

Aug 17, 2019 10:00:55 GMT -5 rimetm said:

There's this wonderful thing called wordplay that has apparently eluded you in this case. A similar example would be something like "Speaking of dumpster fires, how about that current administration?".

You're a platinum member, I see you a lot in these chart threads, and yet you're making these sorts of statements that don't hold up to scrutiny of data. The first sentence is superfluous, the jump was only due to the desynch between the metrics' tracking by your own acknowledgement. As to the second, you may not have said it explicitly, but there's definitely an implied "only" in there. The data showed that the song fell more than 50% in actual points that week (from ~67.3k to ~28.1k).

As the guy who organizes fhas' data for the year-end, it's my duty to inform you that you might want to be careful with that statement. The initial fall wasn't quite 50% (~37.8k to ~20.7k), but the song's stability was thanks to radio and the points appear to have parabola'd ([37.8-20.7-19.7-]17.3-17.5-18.1-17.8-16.9) and it seems poised to pull a ME! imminently now that radio has peaked.

Because it's clear that Taylor has peaked and is slowly becoming a fanbase-reliant artist with hype peaks and no longevity ala BTS. For Shawn, this isn't a disappointment but rather a new commercial peak. For Ariana, that was late in the singles run for the era, plus she actually had better longevity in actually spending the full run in the top 50.

so to argue my points you bring up data that nobody was talking about? gary was talking about CHART POSITIONS and i provided them in return. stay hating while taylor stays on top (or number 2  )

The data is important when determining chart position. If she doesn't have enough data to back her up, she won't get the top positions. It's not hating, its just stating facts and I don't understand why you continue to be so pressed over this. 

[kimberly]

Friday streaming:

Spotify
#1 Ransom 2.326 (solo + remix)
#2 Lover 1.854
#3 Senorita 1.211
#4 Truth Hurts 1.204
#5 Goodbyes 1.116
#6 Money in the Grave 1.100
#7 Bad Bad Bad 1.085
#8 No Guidance 1.063
#9 The London 1.035
#10 Boyfriend 0.973

Apple is either hella late or Young Thug had no streams on Friday lol.

[Au$tin]

Aug 17, 2019 11:31:48 GMT -5 gabe said:

Aug 17, 2019 10:00:55 GMT -5 rimetm said:

There's this wonderful thing called wordplay that has apparently eluded you in this case. A similar example would be something like "Speaking of dumpster fires, how about that current administration?".

You're a platinum member, I see you a lot in these chart threads, and yet you're making these sorts of statements that don't hold up to scrutiny of data. The first sentence is superfluous, the jump was only due to the desynch between the metrics' tracking by your own acknowledgement. As to the second, you may not have said it explicitly, but there's definitely an implied "only" in there. The data showed that the song fell more than 50% in actual points that week (from ~67.3k to ~28.1k).

As the guy who organizes fhas' data for the year-end, it's my duty to inform you that you might want to be careful with that statement. The initial fall wasn't quite 50% (~37.8k to ~20.7k), but the song's stability was thanks to radio and the points appear to have parabola'd ([37.8-20.7-19.7-]17.3-17.5-18.1-17.8-16.9) and it seems poised to pull a ME! imminently now that radio has peaked.

Because it's clear that Taylor has peaked and is slowly becoming a fanbase-reliant artist with hype peaks and no longevity ala BTS. For Shawn, this isn't a disappointment but rather a new commercial peak. For Ariana, that was late in the singles run for the era, plus she actually had better longevity in actually spending the full run in the top 50.

so to argue my points you bring up data that nobody was talking about? gary was talking about CHART POSITIONS and i provided them in return. stay hating while taylor stays on top (or number 2  :kii: )

You_need_to_calm_down.mp3

[king_billboard_100]

Aug 17, 2019 10:56:06 GMT -5 rfucom said:

I hope Circles will not be release next week tho.

why not?