Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 23, 2019 9:45:31 GMT -5
Will Taylor Swift's 'Lover' Conquer All With Another Million-Selling Debut?
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8/22/2019 by Ed Christman
Music executives say the days of million-selling debut weeks are over -- but they’re still hoping Swift proves them wrong
When Taylor Swift’s Lover album comes out Aug. 23, many in the music business will be watching closely to see if she can once again hit the industry’s iconic benchmark for success: 1 million U.S. sales in the first week.
The last time an artist sold 1 million copies of an album in the United States in a single week was in 2017, when Swift’s Reputation sold 1.2 million in the period ending Nov. 16, according to Nielsen Music. Her three previous releases -- 1989, Red and Speak Now -- also sold over 1 million, making her the only artist in history with four albums to cross the million-sales mark in his or her first week (or any week). In this business climate, the only other act who could probably do so is Adele, whose last set, 25, moved 3.4 million copies in its first week back in 2015.
Since then, the downturn in album sales -- which have dropped 35% since 2017 -- coupled with the rise of streaming, have seemingly made hitting the million-sales mark almost impossible. This year’s biggest seller so far is the Jonas Brothers’ Happiness Begins, which sold 357,000 its opening week.
Lover’s first week will serve as a bellwether for the health of music purchases as a business model, and several label executives and retail merchants think sales could reach 600,000.
While that total is half the 1.216 million copies that Reputation sold in its debut week, that album also had the benefit of coming out in November, during the holiday season, which always boosts sales.
In a new move for Swift, Lover is her first album to be available on streaming services the day it arrives and is expected to generate another 125,000 to 150,000 album-consumption units. That would put her total projected album consumption units around the 750,000 mark, according to industry prognosticators.
For their part, Republic Records and the Universal Music Group are playing their cards close to the vest. Republic didn’t respond to a request for comment. But if Lover turns out to be larger than expected, Republic and UMG -- where she signed last year -- have enough CDs in the marketplace to accommodate a million-selling week, with shipments exceeding 600,000 copies, according to industry sources.
“I don’t think Taylor will get to the million-unit mark in sales alone or with album-consumption units,” says an executive at another label. “But she’ll get a lot closer than many [industry] people believe.”
The majority of sales are expected to come from Target, where Swift has an exclusive packaging deal; the iTunes Store; Amazon, which for weeks has placed promos for Lover on some of its Prime shipment boxes; and Walmart. Industry executives expect her to sell at least 400,000 copies combined at Target and iTunes alone.
In addition, word is that Republic worked hard to ensure that the Swift album won’t have any of the inventory street date problems that have marred other big release since April, as her Lover albums are being shipped directly from the manufacturing plants to stores, instead of from the overwhelmed Direct Shot inventory facility that serves as the physical pipeline for the three majors in getting product to brick and mortar stores and online retailers.
As with all of her other albums, Swift is treating Lover like a box-set release: Her site boasts dozens of merchandise bundles, and Target will sell four deluxe packages for $16.99 apiece, complete with a CD, photos, a lyric book, journal entries and two audio messages Swift recorded of herself while writing Lover. (The only sales-boosting strategy that Swift neglected is announcing an album redemption offer with a ticket purchase to a tour.) She’s also in a Capital One commercial and has scheduled appearances on Good Morning America and at MTV’s Video Music Awards during release week.
Meanwhile, Big Machine, Swift’s former label, is working her catalog big time: the Target website shows all her albums being featured -- and in multiple formats, with prices ranging from $6.99 for her debut album to a $39.99 vinyl version of Reputation. On her website, merch bundles range from $55 for a sweatshirt and a download version of the Lover album to $12 for just the CD.
It’s hard to predict whether all of this will add up to 1 million in sales. But it seems certain that in two weeks, Lover will be floating on a pastel cloud atop the Billboard 200.
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earth
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Post by earth on Aug 23, 2019 12:31:40 GMT -5
This year has been pretty lacking in FW album sales, probably due to the rise of streaming. Even if she doesn't get 1 mil first week, she'll probably have the highest debut of the year. The only competition I see her having to face is the Post Malone new album, which I still doubt could get anything over 500k, and if Adele releases something new.
One question is whether or not she can get a second week at #1 against tool next week
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2019 12:55:34 GMT -5
This year has been pretty lacking in FW album sales, probably due to the rise of streaming. Even if she doesn't get 1 mil first week, she'll probably have the highest debut of the year. The only competition I see her having to face is the Post Malone new album, which I still doubt could get anything over 500k, and if Adele releases something new. One question is whether or not she can get a second week at #1 against tool next week I'm thinking no on a second week on top. I really think were sleeping on Tool to do some damage, not to the extent of Taylor but possibly something like 300k. That's my guess, I think they have hype right now as well. Don't sleep on them. |
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Post by wayneashleymusic on Aug 23, 2019 13:07:44 GMT -5
So here's the thing with Taylor Swift...
She KNOWS her fans so well. And on top of that, she's been very candid with them to let them know just how important buying/ supporting Lover is to her. I think they will pull through with 1 million plus, even in the physical sales. She knows just what to say to get them going.
And a lot of fans will buy multiple copies. Taylor was smart to offer up 4 different physical versions. If she has 250,000 Swifties willing to buy all 4, she's made it.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 23, 2019 13:09:14 GMT -5
How many are you buying?
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Post by wayneashleymusic on Aug 23, 2019 13:17:32 GMT -5
My 2015 Hyundai Elantra still has a CD player, so I'm that rare bird which can listen to CDs. I'll be buying one at some point. |
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earth
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Post by earth on Aug 23, 2019 14:42:47 GMT -5
This year has been pretty lacking in FW album sales, probably due to the rise of streaming. Even if she doesn't get 1 mil first week, she'll probably have the highest debut of the year. The only competition I see her having to face is the Post Malone new album, which I still doubt could get anything over 500k, and if Adele releases something new. One question is whether or not she can get a second week at #1 against tool next week I'm thinking no on a second week on top. I really think were sleeping on Tool to do some damage, not to the extent of Taylor but possibly something like 300k. That's my guess, I think they have hype right now as well. Don't sleep on them. Yeah, especially since they've apparently been making this album for like 15 years or something |
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Aug 23, 2019 14:55:14 GMT -5
FI was still ahead of Lover last night during the pre-sale. There's a lot of pent up demand there. Tool is a lock for #1 the following week.
Lover is going to do extremely well in this climate. It's just tougher for TS from a PR standpoint because the bar is set at an unequaled level with 4 previous open-week million sellers. You know, they'll be all sorts of (uniformed) negative articles if she doesn't cross 1MM.
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David
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Post by David on Aug 24, 2019 8:46:22 GMT -5
I bought all four deluxe versions from Target.... I bought a version on iTunes, and bought three of my friends a digital copy, too.... Streamed all day on Apple Music yesterday (and now), and I'm currently streaming on YouTube from my computer.
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Kris
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Post by Kris on Aug 24, 2019 8:56:16 GMT -5
I bought all four deluxe versions from Target.... I bought a version on iTunes, and bought three of my friends a digital copy, too.... Streamed all day on Apple Music yesterday (and now), and I'm currently streaming on YouTube from my computer. Not trying to sound rude but what do you gain from this while also streaming the album for free? Are there item bundles/ticket bundles with each different version? |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Aug 24, 2019 8:56:29 GMT -5
I bought all four deluxe versions from Target.... I bought a version on iTunes, and bought three of my friends a digital copy, too.... Streamed all day on Apple Music yesterday (and now), and I'm currently streaming on YouTube from my computer. I applaud the dedication. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 24, 2019 8:59:30 GMT -5
I bought the advance singles as they came out over the course of the summer at 1.29 a piece and then paid 6.83 for the rest of the album
In the streaming era where you can get it all for free even this is expensive
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 24, 2019 9:04:09 GMT -5
I bought all four deluxe versions from Target.... I bought a version on iTunes, and bought three of my friends a digital copy, too.... Streamed all day on Apple Music yesterday (and now), and I'm currently streaming on YouTube from my computer. Sounds expensive and time consuming |
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David
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Post by David on Aug 24, 2019 9:12:22 GMT -5
I bought all four deluxe versions from Target.... I bought a version on iTunes, and bought three of my friends a digital copy, too.... Streamed all day on Apple Music yesterday (and now), and I'm currently streaming on YouTube from my computer. Not trying to sound rude but what do you gain from this while also streaming the album for free? Are there item bundles/ticket bundles with each different version? There are different diary entries in each of the deluxe versions of the album - I read them all last night, so I will give them to my niece who's a big fan like myself :) |
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David
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Post by David on Aug 24, 2019 9:17:20 GMT -5
I bought all four deluxe versions from Target.... I bought a version on iTunes, and bought three of my friends a digital copy, too.... Streamed all day on Apple Music yesterday (and now), and I'm currently streaming on YouTube from my computer. Sounds expensive and time consuming You want me to buy you a deluxe version of the album? |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 24, 2019 18:25:29 GMT -5
Taylor Swift's 'Lover' Lands 2019's Biggest Sales Week in U.S. After First Day of Release
8/24/2019 by Keith Caulfield
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Plus: Album set for No. 1 debut on Billboard 200 chart with huge debut week in total units earned.
After just one day on sale, Taylor Swift’s Lover album has already logged the biggest sales week of 2019 in the U.S. for an album.
According to initial sales reports to Nielsen Music, the set sold around 450,000 copies on its first day of release (Aug. 23) — buoyed by strong pre-order sales. Previously, the biggest sales week of the year was notched by the debut frame of Jonas Brothers’ Happiness Begins, with 357,000.
Further, Lover already has the biggest sales week for any album since… you guessed it, Swift’s own reputation bowed at No. 1 with 1.216 million copies sold in its first week (Dec. 2, 2017-dated chart).
Industry forecasters estimate that Lover could finish the week with perhaps over 550,000 copies sold in the U.S. (largely comprised of first-day and pre-order sales, as is the case with many blockbuster albums). Lover’s first-week sales will be aided by the set’s release in four collectible CD editions at Target, as well as dozens of merchandise/album bundles sold through Swift’s official website.
Further, those in the know suggest Lover should easily start at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart (dated Sept. 7) with perhaps over 700,000 equivalent album units earned in the week ending Aug. 29. (Equivalent album units comprise traditional album sales, track equivalent album [TEA] units and streaming equivalent album [SEA] units.)
The top 10 of the Sept. 7-dated Billboard 200 chart is scheduled to be revealed on Billboard’s websites on Sunday, Sept. 1.
If Lover launches with 700,000 units, it would secure the biggest week of 2019 for an album, bypassing the current record, held by Jonas Brothers’ Happiness Begins, which began with 414,000 units earned at No. 1 on the June 22 chart.
Lover, which was released on Aug. 23 via Republic Records, is the superstar’s seventh full-length studio album. If Lover bows at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, it will snare Swift her sixth leader on the list.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 24, 2019 18:27:05 GMT -5
Wonder what the actual "first week" numbers would be if you took out the dozens of merchandise bundles and preorders that have been going on all summer and just counted the bundles and purchases that occurred this week?
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deepston
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Post by deepston on Aug 24, 2019 18:31:11 GMT -5
Wonder what the actual "first week" numbers would be if you took out the dozens of merchandise bundles and preorders that have been going on all summer and just counted the bundles and purchases that occurred this week? That's not fair though, everyone has preorders. This does not include merchandise bundles though. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 24, 2019 18:33:43 GMT -5
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Aug 24, 2019 18:36:30 GMT -5
Wonder what the actual "first week" numbers would be if you took out the dozens of merchandise bundles and preorders that have been going on all summer and just counted the bundles and purchases that occurred this week? what exactly would be the point of doing that? |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 24, 2019 18:41:11 GMT -5
Wonder what the actual "first week" numbers would be if you took out the dozens of merchandise bundles and preorders that have been going on all summer and just counted the bundles and purchases that occurred this week? what exactly would be the point of doing that? to get sales in a 7 day period rather than roll several weeks into one? Just curious - Yes I get the current rules allow this. |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 24, 2019 19:28:17 GMT -5
Can't fairly do that calculation, because if "actual release week sales" started to matter ... artists would change their strategies for merch bundles and pre-orders.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Aug 24, 2019 19:53:22 GMT -5
Didn’t say it was fair or not fair. I was just curious
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jodakyellow
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Post by jodakyellow on Aug 24, 2019 21:12:52 GMT -5
Didn’t say it was fair or not fair. I was just curious I’m curious too! A good comparison here is movie box office, where ticket pre-sales and Thursday night previews all get rolled into the opening weekend total, but we do still get some visibility on those granular numbers |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Aug 24, 2019 22:03:53 GMT -5
I bought all four deluxe versions from Target.... I bought a version on iTunes, and bought three of my friends a digital copy, too.... Streamed all day on Apple Music yesterday (and now), and I'm currently streaming on YouTube from my computer. damn gurrl you got money!! and time!!  |
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Anticonformity
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Post by Anticonformity on Aug 25, 2019 2:19:12 GMT -5
Sounds expensive and time consuming You want me to buy you a deluxe version of the album? I'M BROKE *waves* |
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Aug 25, 2019 2:27:22 GMT -5
Y'all getting five copies while I can't afford Spotofy (thanks, socialism).
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willapted33
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Post by willapted33 on Aug 25, 2019 2:35:39 GMT -5
highly doubt that she can beat Tool next week
first album in 13 years
oh yeah and Tool fans got a 10 minute song to chart with like 3 days tracking did they not
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Aug 25, 2019 21:18:38 GMT -5
8/25/2019 by Keith Caulfield
“Lover” has surpassed the “A Star Is Born” soundtrack to become 2019’s top-selling album stateside.
After its first two days out, Taylor Swift’s Lover has already become 2019’s top-selling album in the U.S., according to initial sales reports to Nielsen Music.
Released on Friday (Aug. 23), Lover’s sales approached 500,000 through its second day of release on Saturday. In turn, Lover has now passed the year-to-date sales of what was 2019’s top-seller, Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born soundtrack (444,000 sold through the week ending Aug. 22). Star was released in on Oct. 5, 2018, and has sold 1.148 million in total in the U.S.
In just 48 hours, Lover has the biggest sales week for any album since Swift’s own reputation sold 1.216 million copies in its first week and debuted at No. 1 on the Dec. 2, 2017-dated Billboard 200 chart.
Lover’s first-week sales are aided by the set’s release in four collectible deluxe editions at Target, as well as dozens of merchandise/album bundles sold through Swift’s official website.
Industry forecasters expect that Lover will bow at No. 1 on the Sept. 7-dated Billboard 200 with over 700,000 equivalent album units earned in the week ending Aug. 29. (Equivalent album units comprise traditional album sales, track equivalent album [TEA] units and streaming equivalent album [SEA] units.)
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Post by thegreatdivine on Aug 26, 2019 3:09:59 GMT -5
highly doubt that she can beat Tool next week first album in 13 years oh yeah and Tool fans got a 10 minute song to chart with like 3 days tracking did they not Also, Post Malone drops right after that. Lover might end up getting just one week at #1. |
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