Billboard Hot 100: 10/19/19

[lights]

I don't see how he can do much with Rodeo. The streams are pretty low now. I don't see it doing well on radio. Hard to build any hype for a remix when Cardi is on the original song. I'm sure if the video features Cardi in not much clothes it will be another big one on YouTube for him but there's not much else going for it. Late album singles don't really work at the best of times these days, and Rodeo is not the best of times.

[Normi]

Monopoly was a jam but I never expected it to do anything, had it on repeat occasionally until late July
Highest In The Room is Travis most instant track for me but also a grower, I like it even more now, I could see it having some longevity (maybe 15 weeks in Top 10)
I am really rooting for Lil Nas X for some reason lol so I'd love Rodeo to smash (low Top 10 seems possible) as it is a really catchy song
Excited to see what's coming next from him! His career is super interesting

[earth]

Oct 8, 2019 12:29:48 GMT -5 king_billboard_100 said:

Maroon 5, Memories Music Video is out..

I highly doubt it'll do that much, literally just Adam Levine singing into the camera for 3 minutes with a blank background

[narp]

Oct 8, 2019 15:30:54 GMT -5 dann said:

Oct 8, 2019 15:12:13 GMT -5 shaz196 said:

Speaking of Rodeo, Lil Nas posted this 2 days ago. Didn't expect him to move on from Panini so soon but I guess a top 5 peak was enough for him.

I saw somewhere here on the pulse that panini would be released for Hot AC this week, I think a discount and more videos would help reach a new peak. ok Lil Nas X, let's see what you can do with Rodeo.

Dude could have more success if he promoted all of his songs from the EP. His songs still have a chance to impact dance and alternative formats if he’d just promote them. Even Post sent one of his songs to alt.

[Au$tin]

Oct 8, 2019 12:25:17 GMT -5 king_billboard_100 said:

If itunes has deleted, does the chart still exsits?

The iTunes Store has not been deleted. It has just moved to a new location on the Apple Music application so a bigger focus can be put on the streaming component and music can be separate from apps and movies/tv shows. Users can still purchase musical downloads from the store. The iTunes chart very much still exists. You can find it on these links.
kworb.net/pop/
www.livepopbars2.com/

[Deleted]

besides kworb and dsd is there a way to see itunes sales figures

[jebsib]

Being rebranded and relegated to a small side-bar link spells the end for iTunes, though. I give it 2 years before Labels stop releasing key albums / tracks as downloads. (Vinyl / physical singles all over again)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 8, 2019 17:50:47 GMT -5 narp said:

Oct 8, 2019 15:30:54 GMT -5 dann said:

Dude could have more success if he promoted all of his songs from the EP. His songs still have a chance to impact dance and alternative formats if he’d just promote them. Even Post sent one of his songs to alt.

I'm still hoping he pushes C7osure to alt-stations or even dance stations.

[iHype.]

Oct 8, 2019 20:41:34 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Being rebranded and relegated to a small side-bar link spells the end for iTunes, though. I give it 2 years before Labels stop releasing key albums / tracks as downloads. (Vinyl / physical singles all over again)

I don't think major labels will stop releasing downloads, as its not like physical product where they lost money if it sat on the shelves. I do think iTunes charts will start to just become overrun with random unknown artists once it only takes a few copies to chart though (we were already starting to see that with the Kris Wu mess last year). 

That's until iTunes inevitably shuts down altogether. 

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Music video for Graveyard was also released.

[Choco]

Technically anyone who buys on iTunes is actively depriving the artist/label from extra streams for chart purposes. A download counts once, even if the person plays that file for hours on loop.

I think the format is growing increasingly irrelevant and the new location won't do it any favors.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oct 8, 2019 23:15:33 GMT -5 Choco said:

Technically anyone who buys on iTunes is actively depriving the artist/label from extra streams for chart purposes. A download counts once, even if the person plays that file for hours on loop.

I think the format is growing increasingly irrelevant and the new location won't do it any favors.

Yet the artist will probably get more money from that iTunes purchase than they will from the number of streams that one customer might give the song(s) over time.

[Choco]

Oct 8, 2019 23:33:35 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Oct 8, 2019 23:15:33 GMT -5 Choco said:

Technically anyone who buys on iTunes is actively depriving the artist/label from extra streams for chart purposes. A download counts once, even if the person plays that file for hours on loop.

I think the format is growing increasingly irrelevant and the new location won't do it any favors.

Yet the artist will probably get more money from that iTunes purchase than they will from the number of streams that one customer might give the song(s) over time.

99% sure you're right! But I don't think anyone wants to make iTunes revenues or streaming royalties their main income source nowadays. It's all petty cash compared to promo deals, touring and merch. And for promotion purposes the extra streams will probably aid higher chart placements more.

[Caviar]

Oct 8, 2019 23:33:35 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Oct 8, 2019 23:15:33 GMT -5 Choco said:

Technically anyone who buys on iTunes is actively depriving the artist/label from extra streams for chart purposes. A download counts once, even if the person plays that file for hours on loop.

I think the format is growing increasingly irrelevant and the new location won't do it any favors.

Yet the artist will probably get more money from that iTunes purchase than they will from the number of streams that one customer might give the song(s) over time.

Artists never made money on album sales. Assuming albums are still selling for $11.99, after Apple takes 30%, leaves $8.39 to split between labels, artists, mangers, producers, writers, and whomever else.

[Deleted]

Oct 8, 2019 23:15:33 GMT -5 Choco said:

Technically anyone who buys on iTunes is actively depriving the artist/label from extra streams for chart purposes. A download counts once, even if the person plays that file for hours on loop.

I think the format is growing increasingly irrelevant and the new location won't do it any favors.

Wtf on Hot 100's formula an iTunes sales counts as in the neighborhood of 300 streams.
There are very few songs per year that I would listen to for 300 times within a year, it would make an easy year-end top 15 on my personal chart, probably even top 10.

I don't understand why people use streaming services, it's not cheaper at all. I only need to purchase like, 30 to 50 songs per year and that's about the amount of songs I would actively listen to in a year. That's like, $40 to $65 per year, Spotify subscription is more expensive than that ($120 per year).

[Choco]

I have a main playlist that is always 35 to 50 songs, which I mostly play on a loop. I edit it at least once a week. Plus the occasional use of other playlists or random tracks... it would get expensive on iTunes.

[kingvavis]

Oct 9, 2019 2:23:50 GMT -5 @kanetherockstar said:

Oct 8, 2019 23:15:33 GMT -5 Choco said:

Technically anyone who buys on iTunes is actively depriving the artist/label from extra streams for chart purposes. A download counts once, even if the person plays that file for hours on loop.

I think the format is growing increasingly irrelevant and the new location won't do it any favors.

Wtf on Hot 100's formula an iTunes sales counts as in the neighborhood of 300 streams.
There are very few songs per year that I would listen to for 300 times within a year, it would make an easy year-end top 15 on my personal chart, probably even top 10.

I don't understand why people use streaming services, it's not cheaper at all. I only need to purchase like, 30 to 50 songs per year and that's about the amount of songs I would actively listen to in a year. That's like, $40 to $65 per year, Spotify subscription is more expensive than that ($120 per year).

As someone who listens to 100s of different songs and make playlists, it definitely is cheaper to stream music for myself. You have to remember that not everyone consumes music the same way you do. People like the idea that they can listen or download any song when they want rather than having to purchase a song or a album individually.

[violentdreams]

Oct 8, 2019 15:49:41 GMT -5 lights said:

I don't see how he can do much with Rodeo. The streams are pretty low now. I don't see it doing well on radio. Hard to build any hype for a remix when Cardi is on the original song. I'm sure if the video features Cardi in not much clothes it will be another big one on YouTube for him but there's not much else going for it. Late album singles don't really work at the best of times these days, and Rodeo is not the best of times.

I think replacing Cardi with another artist on a remix would do wonders for the song. A lot of my friends love Rodeo but don't listen to it often because Cardi's verse is so jarring and out of place.

[dann]

Oct 9, 2019 7:39:58 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Oct 8, 2019 15:49:41 GMT -5 lights said:

I don't see how he can do much with Rodeo. The streams are pretty low now. I don't see it doing well on radio. Hard to build any hype for a remix when Cardi is on the original song. I'm sure if the video features Cardi in not much clothes it will be another big one on YouTube for him but there's not much else going for it. Late album singles don't really work at the best of times these days, and Rodeo is not the best of times.

I think replacing Cardi with another artist on a remix would do wonders for the song. A lot of my friends love Rodeo but don't listen to it often because Cardi's verse is so jarring and out of place.

He wanted Travis on the remix, but I don't know if he can.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/10/09

1(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 158.09(-2.21)
2(=) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 154.92(+0.03)
3(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 131.75(+0.92)
4(=) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 120.27(-0.25)
5(=) Khalid - Talk 100.38(-1.77)
6(=) Jonas Brothers - Sucker 97.77(-0.89)
7(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 89.15(+0.48)
8(+1) Post Malone - Goodbyes (feat. Young Thug) 80.99(-0.26)
9(-1) Billie Eilish - bad guy 80.24(-1.39)
10(=) Ed Sheeran - Beautiful People (feat. Khalid) 78.17(+0.27)

11(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 76.61(+0.84)

13(+1) Post Malone - Circles 69.64(+1.90)

14(-1) SHAED - Trampoline 69.14(+0.77)

15(=) Matt Stell - Prayed for You 59.17(+1.67)

34(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 39.84(+0.84)

48(+3) Lizzo - Good as Hell 33.93(+1.01)

58(+2) Chris Brown - Heat (feat. Gunna) 31.55(+0.83)

64(+3) DaBaby - Baby Sitter (feat. Offset) 27.87(+0.77)

76(+6) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 22.35(+2.53)

-(-) Niall Horan - Nice to Meet Ya 15.18(+1.24)

[FindingC7osure]

10/19/19 Early Predictions:

	Song	Points
1.	HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (DEBUT)	37,700
2.	Truth Hurts (-1)	36,500
3.	10,000 Hours (DEBUT)	34,000
4.	Señorita (-2)	31,700
5.	Someone You Loved (-2)	30,400
6.	Ran$om (-2)	27,900
7.	No Guidance (-2)	26,500
8.	Circles (-1)	26,000
9.	Panini (-1)	23,600
10.	Bad Guy (-4)	22,800
11.	Goodbyes (-2)	20,100

NOTE: I'm really not sure about Travis' sales. I tried to keep my estimate on the low side, so they could end up be higher than I predicted!

[whales10268]

Weeks with 2 high debuts are always so exciting. Clearing out top 10 junk like Goodbyes and Old Town Road.

[kierz7]

Two things the 2020’s ‘Hot 100’ will bring us:

1) A 20+ week number one.

2) A 35-40+ week top ten.

Bookmark me.

💅

[lazer]

Oct 9, 2019 11:57:01 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Two things the 2020’s ‘Hot 100’ will bring us:

1) A 20+ week number one.

2) A 35-40+ week top ten.

Bookmark me.

💅

I don’t want that. That makes the charts really boring. Hopefully, there’s a formula change where the charts will have more movement.

[kierz7]

Oct 9, 2019 12:08:32 GMT -5 lazer said:

Oct 9, 2019 11:57:01 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Two things the 2020’s ‘Hot 100’ will bring us:

1) A 20+ week number one.

2) A 35-40+ week top ten.

Bookmark me.

💅

I don’t want that. That makes the charts really boring. Hopefully, there’s a formula change where the charts will have more movement.

It genuinely depends on the song, and how it’s received across various metrics aside from only streaming, but I don’t want it either. Nonetheless, it’s inevitable to be honest.

There may be a new formula change just as the 2020’s begin though.

Billboard will probably weigh airplay a little higher, as well as Digital sales (though not by much) and perhaps even Physical sales to keep the methodology balanced.

It still amazes me how much listener impressions have decreased on radio. The fact that no song has surpassed 150M AI via. BDS in almost two years.

[lazer]

Oct 9, 2019 12:14:17 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Oct 9, 2019 12:08:32 GMT -5 lazer said:

I don’t want that. That makes the charts really boring. Hopefully, there’s a formula change where the charts will have more movement.

It genuinely depends on the song, and how it’s received across various metrics aside from only streaming, but I don’t want it either. Nonetheless, it’s inevitable to be honest.

There may be a new formula change just as the 2020’s begin though.

Billboard will probably weigh airplay a little higher, as well as Digital sales (though not by much) and perhaps even Physical sales to keep the methodology balanced.

It still amazes me how much listener impressions have decreased on radio. The fact that no song has surpassed 150M AI via. BDS in almost two years.

More and more people are switching to streaming. Pop and Country fans have to transition over to streaming if they want their favorite genre to be successful. They just need to accept the fact that sales will be dead in the 2020s. In 2019, there are more non-urban songs in streaming platforms(besides Apple) than in 2018 but the transition is not complete yet.

[tanooki]

Radio is the reason we have all these songs sticking around so much, it really needs to be weighed lower.

[lazer]

Oct 9, 2019 14:09:38 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Radio is the reason we have all these songs sticking around so much, it really needs to be weighed lower.

I agree with this. As much as I still listen to radio when I’m driving, it’ll be better for the charts for streaming to weigh more so there will be more movement. I was wrong when I said that streaming keeps the song stagnant but it’s really the radio that keeps the song in the same position for a long amount of time.

[Golden Bluebird]

[iggyamo]

Oct 9, 2019 14:21:38 GMT -5 lazer said:

Oct 9, 2019 14:09:38 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Radio is the reason we have all these songs sticking around so much, it really needs to be weighed lower.

I agree with this. As much as I still listen to radio when I’m driving, it’ll be better for the charts for streaming to weigh more so there will be more movement. I was wrong when I said that streaming keeps the song stagnant but it’s really the radio that keeps the song in the same position for a long amount of time.

*cough* *cough* Without Me *cough* *cough* really shouldn’t have lasted as long as it has.