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Post by whales10268 on Nov 5, 2019 8:12:02 GMT -5
He might not flop, but he has no chance at number one or top 3 lol. No chance? Preposterous. If Selena Gomez, Lady Gaga, Billy Ray Cyrus, and the Jonas Brothers can hit #1 in 2019, The Weeknd surely also has some chance of hitting the top 3 as well. There's a chance he will and a chance he won't. It's not like he's completely lost all semblance of commercial viability like Vanilla Ice or something. Honestly the likelihood of The Weeknd getting a top three hit out of his next era is just as good as him not getting one. (But, really, is #4 all that worse than #3?) Those artists all came back after not being nearly as huge as The Weeknd was from 2015-2017. The Weeknd just seems to be on the decline, all those artists seemed to have much more room to grow. And don’t act like Lost in the Fire is not a real flop for him. It had a radio deal and was promoted far more as a Weeknd song than a Gesaffelstein one. I’ll give you that Power is Power didn’t get huge promotion, but it still barely charted
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Nov 5, 2019 8:21:37 GMT -5
No chance? Preposterous. If Selena Gomez, Lady Gaga, Billy Ray Cyrus, and the Jonas Brothers can hit #1 in 2019, The Weeknd surely also has some chance of hitting the top 3 as well. There's a chance he will and a chance he won't. It's not like he's completely lost all semblance of commercial viability like Vanilla Ice or something. Honestly the likelihood of The Weeknd getting a top three hit out of his next era is just as good as him not getting one. (But, really, is #4 all that worse than #3?) Those artists all came back after not being nearly as huge as The Weeknd was from 2015-2017. The Weeknd just seems to be on the decline, all those artists seemed to have much more room to grow. And don’t act like Lost in the Fire is not a real flop for him. It had a radio deal and was promoted far more as a Weeknd song than a Gesaffelstein one. I’ll give you that Power is Power didn’t get huge promotion, but it still barely charted You realize Travis Scott was on Power is Power??? And he literally JUST debuted at #1...like 2 weeks ago lmao. And I dont know when yall gonna realize that producer collabs have no merrit and how well an artists actual lead single will do. Look how poorly those solo Drake/DJ Khaled collabs did relative to Drake’s own singles in 2016/17. Or how that Travis/Post Malone collab with Khaled did earlier this year after both of them having spectacular years... If it’s not an artists own single (even if their the only ones singing on it), you can’t use it’s performance to predict how an actual single of theirs will do.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Nov 5, 2019 8:27:04 GMT -5
No chance? Preposterous. If Selena Gomez, Lady Gaga, Billy Ray Cyrus, and the Jonas Brothers can hit #1 in 2019, The Weeknd surely also has some chance of hitting the top 3 as well. There's a chance he will and a chance he won't. It's not like he's completely lost all semblance of commercial viability like Vanilla Ice or something. Honestly the likelihood of The Weeknd getting a top three hit out of his next era is just as good as him not getting one. (But, really, is #4 all that worse than #3?) Those artists all came back after not being nearly as huge as The Weeknd was from 2015-2017. The Weeknd just seems to be on the decline, all those artists seemed to have much more room to grow. And don’t act like Lost in the Fire is not a real flop for him. It had a radio deal and was promoted far more as a Weeknd song than a Gesaffelstein one. I’ll give you that Power is Power didn’t get huge promotion, but it still barely charted The whole back and forth is silly to me when we all consider no one actually knows. They’re predictions. You have your reasons for why you don’t think he’ll make it, others have their reasons why they think he’ll come back strong, nobody is right because no one actually knows because it’s in the future so we will all find out when it happens. The only thing actually wrong is when someone predicts he will “for sure” debut at number one or “for sure” not debut in the top 3, no chance. It’s like it happens over and over again and they won’t learn - it’s always possible.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Nov 5, 2019 8:37:15 GMT -5
Those artists all came back after not being nearly as huge as The Weeknd was from 2015-2017. The Weeknd just seems to be on the decline, all those artists seemed to have much more room to grow. And don’t act like Lost in the Fire is not a real flop for him. It had a radio deal and was promoted far more as a Weeknd song than a Gesaffelstein one. I’ll give you that Power is Power didn’t get huge promotion, but it still barely charted The whole back and forth is silly to me when we all consider no one actually knows. They’re predictions. You have your reasons for why you don’t think he’ll make it, others have their reasons why they think he’ll come back strong, nobody is right because no one actually knows because it’s in the future so we will all find out when it happens. The only thing actually wrong is when someone predicts he will “for sure” debut at number one or “for sure” not debut in the top 3, no chance. It’s like it happens over and over again and they won’t learn - it’s always possible. Agreed. Look only over the past three years ago, how established stars Justin Timberlake and Katy Perry flopped spectacularly, and yet how someone like Post Malone, who was immediately hailed as a one hit wonder after 'White Iverson', went on to be one of the biggest names of the 2010s.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 5, 2019 9:00:37 GMT -5
Hopefully the chart will be fixed by the end of the 2019 holiday, I really don’t get people cheering for Christmas music to chart but calls the current chart boring, or literally any other chart for that matter Not sure I can agree. The charts should reflect actual public consumption, not some ideal that we'd like the chart to be. Without the Christmas invasion, we'd have a 4-6 week period of complete chart stagnation. Even slower moving than the regular charts are. Nobody puts out non-Christmas music in December, and Xmas music consumes probably about 30% of the radio and streaming bandwidth. So whatever was #1 (probably thru #30) on Dec 1 would stay very close to the same position thru mid-January. Compare the Nov 30 2018 chart to Jan 8 2019. Virtually no movement. Certainly not 6 weeks worth of movement.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 5, 2019 9:05:12 GMT -5
Did "Sunflower" survived the Kanhe bomb? Hopefully he did. I suspect not. [Sunflower] was already at 53 weeks, so if he got nudged out of the top 25, he's out.
And Ye alone had 4 songs debut in the top 25. So even he he stayed still, he'd drop to #26, and therefore out. None are Sunflower. Confirmed: Sunflower and Wow. are both out. We are in a post-Post Malone era of chart domination.
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Nov 5, 2019 9:19:08 GMT -5
Don’t Start Now reaches the top ten in Spotify.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Nov 5, 2019 9:27:42 GMT -5
I suspect not. [Sunflower] was already at 53 weeks, so if he got nudged out of the top 25, he's out.
And Ye alone had 4 songs debut in the top 25. So even he he stayed still, he'd drop to #26, and therefore out. None are Sunflower. Confirmed: Sunflower and Wow. are both out. We are in a post-Post Malone era of chart domination. Technically we're still in a Post Malone era since Circles is predicted to go number one this week.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Nov 5, 2019 9:31:38 GMT -5
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 5, 2019 9:32:47 GMT -5
Amazing success for Dua, who would've thought! She might debut in top 40!
Also Roxanne will do that most likely.
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iggyamo
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Post by iggyamo on Nov 5, 2019 9:45:07 GMT -5
Assembling my year-end lists (hit songs, singles, deep cuts, etc.) and it got me thinking, are there any guilty pleasures you guys would "recommend"? Like 'Lalala' and 'Drip Too Hard' are definitely some of my biggest guilty pleasures this year but I'm curious what other guilty pleasures there are. It doesn't even need to be a song that charted, just a song you found and were ashamed of liking. I Think I’m Ok by Machine Gun Kelly, YUNGBLUD, and Travis Barker, I don’t like a lot from the first 2, but damn I really like this. I mean the lyrics are awful, and Machine Gun Kelly can’t sing for shit, but it’s good to me. Also since anything Travis Barker is on is billboard poison (the only songs that didn’t debut from Lil Nas X’s ep were his songs, the only hits he had I believe were in Blink-182 and one XXX Tentacion deep cut) so I wasn’t surprised when it didn’t debut.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Nov 5, 2019 9:57:21 GMT -5
Hopefully the chart will be fixed by the end of the 2019 holiday, I really don’t get people cheering for Christmas music to chart but calls the current chart boring, or literally any other chart for that matter Not sure I can agree. The charts should reflect actual public consumption, not some ideal that we'd like the chart to be. Without the Christmas invasion, we'd have a 4-6 week period of complete chart stagnation. Even slower moving than the regular charts are. Nobody puts out non-Christmas music in December, and Xmas music consumes probably about 30% of the radio and streaming bandwidth. So whatever was #1 (probably thru #30) on Dec 1 would stay very close to the same position thru mid-January. Compare the Nov 30 2018 chart to Jan 8 2019. Virtually no movement. Certainly not 6 weeks worth of movement. People def release new music December. Post Malone, Ariana Grande, Meek Mill, XXXTentacion, 21 Savage, etc released new music last December. And I'm not sure how the Holiday flood helps solve the same songs charting when it is the same exact Holiday songs that re-enter every year. It's not like a flood of new Holiday singles debuts every year. MAYBE 1-2 new Holiday singles debut, while 90%+ will be the same old classics recharting. We had 4 Holiday classics reach top 10 last year, while I'm sure 5+ will this year. Having the same Holiday classics hog the entire top 10 for multiple weeks each year blocking new current hits would be the definition of 'slowing down the chart' imo. The Holiday 100 serves a better purpose for seeing how the same group of classics perform in comparison to each other each year. Especially when Holiday singles receive an overwhelming amount of consumption simply from playlisting compared to current hits. It's the same 20 Holiday classics just put on every Holiday playlist for streaming and radio each year.I'm all for wanting AIWFCIY to go #1 this year, but hopefully Billboard does do some rule down the line.
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Normi
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Post by Normi on Nov 5, 2019 9:57:52 GMT -5
Lol at people compiling ye lists in early November lol We still have some time but I know Don't Call Me Up, 7 rings and Good Thing will be in it (imma do a full thread for my Top songs in late December wink)
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Nov 5, 2019 10:06:02 GMT -5
You realize Travis Scott was on Power is Power??? And he literally JUST debuted at #1...like 2 weeks ago lmao. And I dont know when yall gonna realize that producer collabs have no merrit and how well an artists actual lead single will do. Look how poorly those solo Drake/DJ Khaled collabs did relative to Drake’s own singles in 2016/17. Or how that Travis/Post Malone collab with Khaled did earlier this year after both of them having spectacular years... If it’s not an artists own single (even if their the only ones singing on it), you can’t use it’s performance to predict how an actual single of theirs will do. Power is Power was definitely a single, it was sent to radio, and the main artist was in fact The Weeknd. I just don’t get where “producer collab” came from, looking at the main artists, I don’t see a producer. Travis Scott also tends to be a solo artist, and really only draws attention with his own songs. Where did I say Power is Power wasn't a single? And as for the producer collab, I was referring to Lost in the Fire.....
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iggyamo
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Post by iggyamo on Nov 5, 2019 10:07:29 GMT -5
Power is Power was definitely a single, it was sent to radio, and the main artist was in fact The Weeknd. I just don’t get where “producer collab” came from, looking at the main artists, I don’t see a producer. Travis Scott also tends to be a solo artist, and really only draws attention with his own songs. Where did I say Power is Power wasn't a single? And as for the producer collab, I was referring to Lost in the Fire..... I should definitely read into context a bit more...
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Nov 5, 2019 10:15:55 GMT -5
Someone You Loved already returned to #1 in Radio Songs:
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/11/05
1(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 134.15(-2.87) 2(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 131.80(-0.30) 3(=) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 127.96(-1.95) 4(=) Post Malone - Circles 108.43(+0.80) 5(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 99.99(+0.58) 6(=) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 97.04(-0.19) 7(=) Ed Sheeran - Beautiful People (feat. Khalid) 94.70(-0.24) 8(+1) Lizzo - Good as Hell 90.48(+2.71) 9(-1) SHAED - Trampoline 88.96(+0.84) 10(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 86.96(+0.12)
13(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 70.16(+1.08) 14(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 66.85(+1.31) 21(+1) Brantley Gilbert & Lindsay Ell - What Happens in a Small Town 54.95(+1.06) 24(+1) Old Dominion - One Man Band 52.08(+1.01) 29(=) Chris Brown - Heat (feat. Gunna) 45.94(+0.83) 46(+6) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 33.33(+2.20) 60(+2) Dustin Lynch - Ridin' Roads 29.00(+0.91) -(-) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 8.39(+0.85)
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Nov 5, 2019 11:08:04 GMT -5
Roxanne is such a pain to predict. I have it at #21, but where does everyone else have it?
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moonlite
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Post by moonlite on Nov 5, 2019 11:12:30 GMT -5
Roxanne is such a pain to predict. I have it at #21, but where does everyone else have it? I have it around 25
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Nov 5, 2019 11:29:10 GMT -5
If Roxanne debuts high on the charts, would it be the highest debut song for an artist's first chart entry?
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spicymapping
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ahoe s2e11 out now
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Post by spicymapping on Nov 5, 2019 11:30:42 GMT -5
If Roxanne debuts high on the charts, would it be the highest debut song for an artist's first chart entry? Harlem Shake sadly exists
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Post by hunterquigley on Nov 5, 2019 11:31:36 GMT -5
If Roxanne debuts high on the charts, would it be the highest debut song for an artist's first chart entry? No I don’t think so, I can think of “PILLOWTALK” by Zayn starting at number one and then all the American Idol songs
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2019 11:56:07 GMT -5
If Roxanne debuts high on the charts, would it be the highest debut song for an artist's first chart entry? without the impact of youtube being implemented into the charts (harlem shake), being on american idol, and being fresh off one of the biggest boy bands of this generation, it still wouldn't be the highest debut for a first entry. you guys remember "we might be dead by tomorrow"? debuted top 10 then fell out the next week in 2014?
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Nov 5, 2019 11:59:36 GMT -5
Holy f**k I just looked at the Spotify charts a week ago and Roxanne was number 49 and 3 days before that it wasn’t even on the chart.. now it’s number 5 💀 this song is gaining fast as hell Feeling like it'll drop pretty fast too thought, just thinking about the run of 223s
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Nov 5, 2019 12:28:42 GMT -5
Feels weird how we live in a world where better now was outpeaked by wow and circles #JusticeForBetterNow
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Normi
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Post by Normi on Nov 5, 2019 12:32:44 GMT -5
By the way, this week we have 4 #1 singles in the Top 5, the last time that happened was when Truth Hurts went to the top for the first time (#1 Truth Hurts, #2 Senorita, #3 bad guy, #5 Old Town Road) Could next week be a Top 5 full of #1s? When did that happen the last time?
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Post by Lukas on Nov 5, 2019 12:37:22 GMT -5
I agree with what rockgolf said about the Christmas songs being allowed to chart each year, since it reflects what people are listening to in a certain time period.
However, I do believe that there should be some form of rule in place for those songs on year-end lists and all-time lists. It would be ridiculous if the all-time top 10 songs 50-70 years from now where simply holiday songs most people in the world would only ever listen to one month in a year.
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 5, 2019 13:43:22 GMT -5
Assembling my year-end lists (hit songs, singles, deep cuts, etc.) and it got me thinking, are there any guilty pleasures you guys would "recommend"? Like 'Lalala' and 'Drip Too Hard' are definitely some of my biggest guilty pleasures this year but I'm curious what other guilty pleasures there are. It doesn't even need to be a song that charted, just a song you found and were ashamed of liking. I like "Lalala" and I'm not ashamed of it....
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 5, 2019 13:45:44 GMT -5
I suspect not. [Sunflower] was already at 53 weeks, so if he got nudged out of the top 25, he's out.
And Ye alone had 4 songs debut in the top 25. So even he he stayed still, he'd drop to #26, and therefore out. None are Sunflower. Confirmed: Sunflower and Wow. are both out. We are in a post-Post Malone era of chart domination. For now.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Nov 5, 2019 14:11:41 GMT -5
Weird that it happened so soon after his album release.
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Post by nathanalbright on Nov 5, 2019 14:18:50 GMT -5
Weird that it happened so soon after his album release. I don't think it's that weird. Releasing new songs helped push his older songs back, and then only a few of those have caught on as hits and haven't had the time to achieve lasting domination. Few artists are able to achieve any sort of domination for more than the few weeks an album bomb lasts unless they have hit songs that last for different reasons, such as the way that Sunflower got successful as a soundtrack song independently of other single releases.
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