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Post by thegreatdivine on Dec 21, 2019 10:39:41 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm gonna have to wait till Cardi B starts pushing singles from her next album era to determine if she's fallen off or not.
2019 was a relatively quiet year for her.
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thabb
Charting
hi
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 330 
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Post by thabb on Dec 21, 2019 10:47:53 GMT -5
God, i am SO excited to see Mimi's streaming #'s for this week and next week. Christmas season is genuinely the most exciting time to watch the charts every year. Especially bc Amazon is a wild card 😩
Shame HDD didn't update their streaming chart yet though. I wanted to get an idea
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Post by thegreatdivine on Dec 21, 2019 10:54:22 GMT -5
OK maybe Cardi didn't fell off completely, but you can't deny the hype around her is on the decline this year. Well, duh. Hype eventually dies down. Ariana's hype didn't even last till the end of this year. The hype around Billie Eilish right now probably won't be the same by this time next year. Same goes for Lizzo and DaBaby. The true test of an artist's commercial potency is their ability to still perform long after the hype dies down. |
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Post by Mayman on Dec 21, 2019 11:02:15 GMT -5
Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/12/21
1(=) Post Malone - Circles 130.17(+1.40)
2(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 128.08(+0.75)
3(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 115.29(+1.53)
4(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 107.70(+1.38)
5(+1) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 106.11(+1.53)
6(-1) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 105.51(+0.30)
7(=) SHAED - Trampoline 84.58(+0.60)
8(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 76.25(+0.12)
9(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 73.90(+0.21)
10(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 68.95(-0.50)
16(+1) The Weeknd - Heartless 56.18(+1.11)
21(+1) Dustin Lynch - Ridin' Roads 52.39(+0.88)
23(+1) Maren Morris - The Bones 51.77(+0.88) 26(=) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 49.58(+1.15) 28(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 48.44(+1.13)
29(+1) Jon Pardi - Heartache Medication 47.86(+0.81)
47(=) blackbear - hot girl bummer 30.60(+0.82) 49(+3) DaBaby - BOP 28.78(+0.73)
53(+4) Harry Styles - Adore You 28.36(+0.97)
58(+3) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 27.01(+1.01)
-(-) Ed Sheeran - South of the Border (feat. Camila Cabello & Cardi B) 14.35(+0.72)
Why is No Guidance gaining on radio? It's still charting on Pop, Rhythmic, Urban and just reached a new peak on Urban AC (#5). It has yet to leave any format it's charted on. |
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Dec 21, 2019 11:03:39 GMT -5
Why is No Guidance gaining on radio? It's still charting on Pop, Rhythmic, Urban and just reached a new peak on Urban AC (#5). It has yet to leave any format it's charted on. Wow at No Guidance's lomgevity. This is definitely hitting 52 weeks |
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Post by Mayman on Dec 21, 2019 11:07:25 GMT -5
It's still charting on Pop, Rhythmic, Urban and just reached a new peak on Urban AC (#5). It has yet to leave any format it's charted on. Wow at No Guidance's lomgevity. This is definitely hitting 52 weeks Yeah it's a radio and streaming monster. It's still #6 and #10 on Rhythmic and Urban radio respectively, and they're some of the more fast-paced formats. |
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Dec 21, 2019 11:10:20 GMT -5
Wow at No Guidance's lomgevity. This is definitely hitting 52 weeks Yeah it's a radio and streaming monster. It's still #6 and #10 on Rhythmic and Urban radio respectively, and they're some of the more fast-paced formats. It really does amaze me that a song that didnt even hit the top 3 is going to almost certainly hit 52 weeks. Any chance it could go 53 weeks? |
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tanooki
Diamond Member
2019 Breakthrough
lucia gta 6
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Posts: 10,118
Pronouns: they/she/fae
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Post by tanooki on Dec 21, 2019 11:22:02 GMT -5
Is cardi b even gonna appear on this weeks chart at all?
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thabb
Charting
hi
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 330
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Post by thabb on Dec 21, 2019 11:33:39 GMT -5
they still play the hell out of 'no guidance' on my city's rhythmic, UAC, and urban stations… the "you got it girl you got it" refrain is stuck in my head
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atg
3x Platinum Member
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Posts: 3,004
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Post by atg on Dec 21, 2019 11:40:27 GMT -5
People on this site can't even predict what'll happen in one week (on the charts), but somehow the same ppl are supposed to know who's going to become a legend in the next 10 years? Please, you guys… wait until 2025 for this discussion lol. It's already been established you guys can't even predict for the next week, let's not jump the gun and try to predict for the next 10 years Imagine taking a simple topic seriously 💀 |
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thabb
Charting
hi
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 330
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Post by thabb on Dec 21, 2019 11:43:36 GMT -5
People on this site can't even predict what'll happen in one week (on the charts), but somehow the same ppl are supposed to know who's going to become a legend in the next 10 years? Please, you guys… wait until 2025 for this discussion lol. It's already been established you guys can't even predict for the next week, let's not jump the gun and try to predict for the next 10 years Imagine taking a simple topic seriously 💀 So you're telling me that everybody was being sarcastic/just joking around? for a whole page? Did you ask everybody about this? LMK Like I understand it's for fun but some people are obviously serious about this (*cough cough* YOP forum *cough cough*) and I'm just stating my mind. But again, LMK if everybody on the last page was just f*cking around. Thx |
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Dec 21, 2019 11:45:29 GMT -5
People on this site can't even predict what'll happen in one week (on the charts), but somehow the same ppl are supposed to know who's going to become a legend in the next 10 years? Please, you guys… wait until 2025 for this discussion lol. It's already been established you guys can't even predict for the next week, let's not jump the gun and try to predict for the next 10 years Imagine taking a simple topic seriously 💀 The problem is that this isn't the topic this thread is about, so, like, if y'all can't even get close to a meaningful result with a decade prediction, why bother posting it in a specific Hot 100 week's thread and sparking arguments that aren't pertinent? This is what the General thread or even one of the other Board sections are made for. Like, say what you want about the harsh discourse around Juice's death, at least that was relevant to the Hot 100 the thread was about, seeing as his songs were slated to impact in the wake of it. Talking about Cardi or Drake's future projects and how they'll affect the next decade has diddly to do with the 12/28 chart. |
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Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 14,179
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Post by Enigma. on Dec 21, 2019 12:35:23 GMT -5
No Guidance has spent 27 weeks on Hot 100. A bit premature to talk about a year on chart...
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Post by thegreatdivine on Dec 21, 2019 12:58:48 GMT -5
No Guidance has spent 27 weeks on Hot 100. A bit premature to talk about a year on chart... Yup. I can see it getting to 30-35 weeks, but 52 weeks is a stretch. In the next couple of weeks, there'll be a massive influx of new songs on the Hot 100 with many of them in the top 25. Album bombs might also ensure that it never even charts for 40 weeks. |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2019 13:04:10 GMT -5
People on this site can't even predict what'll happen in one week (on the charts), but somehow the same ppl are supposed to know who's going to become a legend in the next 10 years? Please, you guys… wait until 2025 for this discussion lol. It's already been established you guys can't even predict for the next week, let's not jump the gun and try to predict for the next 10 years Right. cause look back 5 years ago no one would have been able to predict post Malone would be the biggest artist of 2019 |
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anorable
Charting
Blinding Lights for Top 10!
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Post by anorable on Dec 21, 2019 14:39:28 GMT -5
People on this site can't even predict what'll happen in one week (on the charts), but somehow the same ppl are supposed to know who's going to become a legend in the next 10 years? Please, you guys… wait until 2025 for this discussion lol. It's already been established you guys can't even predict for the next week, let's not jump the gun and try to predict for the next 10 years Right. cause look back 5 years ago no one would have been able to predict post Malone would be the biggest artist of 2019 Billie Eilish first dropped in late 2015. The biggest stars of the 2020s might not have even started up yet. |
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spicymapping
Platinum Member
ahoe s2e11 out now
Joined: December 2018
Posts: 1,116
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Post by spicymapping on Dec 21, 2019 16:21:40 GMT -5
Ballin' is #1 on YT!
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candypaint
Charting
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Posts: 183
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Post by candypaint on Dec 21, 2019 17:28:44 GMT -5
Lol now Cardi fell off why do people forget she has a daughter at home she's raising plus aside from please me , press wasn't a single fans begged for that to be released, Wish Wish would've been a hit if DJ Khalid didn't fumble his own bag releasing just us as a single despite wish wish being the highest debut out of all his songs, Writing on the wall had a bad timing barely no promo from french , South of the border had potential but it should've not been the last release off No.6 , and lastly YES did flop. Sorry for the long rant but it must be said. Writing's On the Wall had every marking there for a hit. I mean if you can't score a hit with a Post feature then that's a bad sign. I mean he's a streaming juggernaut and the song made no noise. I think people are just experiencing Cardi fatigue, and I blame that on Girls Like You. If she doesn't switch it up I see her fading in the 20s. Atlantic pushing Lizzo as a rapper, and seeing all the money they put behind her in radio, was the first sign that I felt Cardi was in danger. |
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thabb
Charting
hi
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 330
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Post by thabb on Dec 21, 2019 17:47:11 GMT -5
Is Your Opinion Please closed?
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moonlite
Platinum Member
Joined: September 2018
Posts: 1,185
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Post by moonlite on Dec 21, 2019 18:00:56 GMT -5
Lol now Cardi fell off why do people forget she has a daughter at home she's raising plus aside from please me , press wasn't a single fans begged for that to be released, Wish Wish would've been a hit if DJ Khalid didn't fumble his own bag releasing just us as a single despite wish wish being the highest debut out of all his songs, Writing on the wall had a bad timing barely no promo from french , South of the border had potential but it should've not been the last release off No.6 , and lastly YES did flop. Sorry for the long rant but it must be said. Writing's On the Wall had every marking there for a hit. I mean if you can't score a hit with a Post feature then that's a bad sign. I mean he's a streaming juggernaut and the song made no noise. I think people are just experiencing Cardi fatigue, and I blame that on Girls Like You. If she doesn't switch it up I see her fading in the 20s. Atlantic pushing Lizzo as a rapper, and seeing all the money they put behind her in radio, was the first sign that I felt Cardi was in danger. Huh? Writing on the Wall is a French Montana song not a Cardi song... I don't see what it not being a hit has to do with Cardi, when the problem there is clearly French And lets not act like Post has some type of feature stimulus... |
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jenglisbe
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2005
Posts: 35,642
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Post by jenglisbe on Dec 21, 2019 18:06:55 GMT -5
We are in the 20s decade as far as the decade charts go, right? So if Billboard doesn’t make any rule changes, it’s possible “AIWFCIY” gets anywhere from 12-20+ weeks at #1 and 40+ overall weeks on the chart. I wonder how it could do on the decade chart, then.
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thabb
Charting
hi
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 330
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Post by thabb on Dec 21, 2019 18:09:19 GMT -5
We are in the 20s decade as far as the decade charts go, right? So if Billboard doesn’t make any rule changes, it’s possible “AIWFCIY” gets anywhere from 12-20+ weeks at #1 and 40+ overall weeks on the chart. I wonder how it could do on the decade chart, then. imagine the meltdowns in 2029 on this forum if AIWFCIY actually makes the decade-end. lol |
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annoymous1
7x Platinum Member
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 7,192 
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Post by annoymous1 on Dec 21, 2019 18:22:40 GMT -5
Lol now Cardi fell off why do people forget she has a daughter at home she's raising plus aside from please me , press wasn't a single fans begged for that to be released, Wish Wish would've been a hit if DJ Khalid didn't fumble his own bag releasing just us as a single despite wish wish being the highest debut out of all his songs, Writing on the wall had a bad timing barely no promo from french , South of the border had potential but it should've not been the last release off No.6 , and lastly YES did flop. Sorry for the long rant but it must be said. Writing's On the Wall had every marking there for a hit. I mean if you can't score a hit with a Post feature then that's a bad sign. I mean he's a streaming juggernaut and the song made no noise. I think people are just experiencing Cardi fatigue, and I blame that on Girls Like You. If she doesn't switch it up I see her fading in the 20s. Atlantic pushing Lizzo as a rapper, and seeing all the money they put behind her in radio, was the first sign that I felt Cardi was in danger. The only part I disagree with is Writing On The Wall because Cardi did her part in promo and did more than French did and it's his Song. Plus Post yes he is a streaming juggernaut but outside of his own songs when has he been to have his name on a song and boom it's a hit ? I do agree with everything else you said. |
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Post by Lukas on Dec 21, 2019 19:13:02 GMT -5
We are in the 20s decade as far as the decade charts go, right? So if Billboard doesn’t make any rule changes, it’s possible “AIWFCIY” gets anywhere from 12-20+ weeks at #1 and 40+ overall weeks on the chart. I wonder how it could do on the decade chart, then. How high it could go on the decade-end list would largely depend on how many weeks it gets at #1. If it gets 12 weeks at #1, then it could end up as high as #60 on the list. If it gets 20 weeks at #1, then it could be in the top 10 of the decade. This, of course, assumes that the turnover rate for the 2020's is constant and the same as it was in late 2018/entire 2019. |
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Dec 21, 2019 19:29:10 GMT -5
We are in the 20s decade as far as the decade charts go, right? So if Billboard doesn’t make any rule changes, it’s possible “AIWFCIY” gets anywhere from 12-20+ weeks at #1 and 40+ overall weeks on the chart. I wonder how it could do on the decade chart, then. How high it could go on the decade-end list would largely depend on how many weeks it gets at #1. If it gets 12 weeks at #1, then it could end up as high as #60 on the list. If it gets 20 weeks at #1, then it could be in the top 10 of the decade. This, of course, assumes that the turnover rate for the 2020's is constant and the same as it was in late 2018/entire 2019. I think at some point the turnover rate will probably slow down agaim. Maybe 2021 or later The industry has definitely been in a slump since 2018 but i could see it leaving that slump at some point and that would probably cause a slower turnover rate, like 2011-2017 had |
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Post by Lukas on Dec 21, 2019 20:10:20 GMT -5
How high it could go on the decade-end list would largely depend on how many weeks it gets at #1. If it gets 12 weeks at #1, then it could end up as high as #60 on the list. If it gets 20 weeks at #1, then it could be in the top 10 of the decade. This, of course, assumes that the turnover rate for the 2020's is constant and the same as it was in late 2018/entire 2019. I think at some point the turnover rate will probably slow down agaim. Maybe 2021 or later The industry has definitely been in a slump since 2018 but i could see it leaving that slump at some point and that would probably cause a slower turnover rate, like 2011-2017 had It might slow down more, but it definitely won't be significant enough to change much in terms of decade-end list points or anything like that. The only time a hugely significant turnover change occurred was when Soundscan was introduced to make the numbers more accurate. Before Soundscan, the "multiplier" for each era ranged from 1.6 to 2. Now, it has ranged thus far from 0.8 to 1. In the future, it might drop down to 0.75 or 0.7 or something, but definitely not to something like 0.5. Point is, without any rule changes, expect AIWFCIY to make the decade-end list. |
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weirdo
Gold Member
Joined: November 2019
Posts: 640
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Post by weirdo on Dec 21, 2019 20:43:23 GMT -5
I think at some point the turnover rate will probably slow down agaim. Maybe 2021 or later The industry has definitely been in a slump since 2018 but i could see it leaving that slump at some point and that would probably cause a slower turnover rate, like 2011-2017 had It might slow down more, but it definitely won't be significant enough to change much in terms of decade-end list points or anything like that. The only time a hugely significant turnover change occurred was when Soundscan was introduced to make the numbers more accurate. Before Soundscan, the "multiplier" for each era ranged from 1.6 to 2. Now, it has ranged thus far from 0.8 to 1. In the future, it might drop down to 0.75 or 0.7 or something, but definitely not to something like 0.5. Point is, without any rule changes, expect AIWFCIY to make the decade-end list. I agree. Im just saying that things do change. The turnover rates were higher in the early 2000s, then it slowed down in about 2005 and stayed that way until 2008. In 2008 it rose again (of course there are exceptions to this. Like Thw Black Eyed Peas in 2009, but when they werent #1 it was a high turnoevr rate). Then it got lower again in 2011 and stayes that way until late 2017. Now ots higher again My point is: the turnover rates could have some chamge in the future |
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Post by Lukas on Dec 21, 2019 20:47:18 GMT -5
It might slow down more, but it definitely won't be significant enough to change much in terms of decade-end list points or anything like that. The only time a hugely significant turnover change occurred was when Soundscan was introduced to make the numbers more accurate. Before Soundscan, the "multiplier" for each era ranged from 1.6 to 2. Now, it has ranged thus far from 0.8 to 1. In the future, it might drop down to 0.75 or 0.7 or something, but definitely not to something like 0.5. Point is, without any rule changes, expect AIWFCIY to make the decade-end list. I agree. Im just saying that things do change. The turnover rates were higher in the early 2000s, then it slowed down in about 2005 and stayed that way until 2008. In 2008 it rose again (of course there are exceptions to this. Like Thw Black Eyed Peas in 2009, but when they werent #1 it was a high turnoevr rate). Then it got lower again in 2011 and stayes that way until late 2017. Now ots higher again My point is: the turnover rates could have some chamge in the future That's why my example was based under the assumption that the turnover rate would stay the same. I never said that it was guaranteed to do so. Also, Billboard never considered the 2000's to have any turnover changes. If they think that the turnover rate change is insignificant enough to not change anything, then they won't. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 22, 2019 10:58:40 GMT -5
Could the end-of-year radio freeze have already begun?
Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/12/22
1(=) Post Malone - Circles 130.34(+0.17)
2(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 127.35(-0.73)
3(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 115.81(+0.52)
4(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 108.39(+0.69)
5(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 105.77(-0.35)
6(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 104.63(-0.88)
7(=) SHAED - Trampoline 83.61(-0.96)
8(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 76.02(-0.23)
9(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 73.86(-0.04)
10(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 68.60(-0.36)
15(+1) The Weeknd - Heartless 57.24(+1.06)
19(+3) Tones and I - Dance Monkey 54.14(+1.75) 25(+1) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 50.48(+0.90) 48(+1) DaBaby - BOP 30.11(+1.33)
49(+4) Harry Styles - Adore You 29.82(+1.46)
-(-) Jonas Brothers - Like It's Christmas 9.46(+3.12)
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Soulsista
Diamond Member
Room for one more, honey.
Joined: December 2006
Posts: 11,881
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Post by Soulsista on Dec 22, 2019 12:01:01 GMT -5
The charts from 40 years ago were frozen, so I'll post the year-end Top 10 instead.
December 21, 1959 (For the week ending December 26)
01 01 Heartaches By The Number - Guy Mitchell (2nd and final week at #1)
02 05 Why - Frankie Avalon
03 11 El Paso - Marty Robbins
04 10 The Big Hurt - Miss Toni Fisher
05 13 Way Down Yonder In New Orleans - Freddy Cannon
06 09 It's Time To Cry - Paul Anka
07 03 Mack The Knife - Bobby Darin
08 06 We Got Love - Bobby Rydell
09 21 Among My Souvenirs - Connie Francis
10 16 Hound Dog Man - Fabian
December 26, 1964
01 02 I Feel Fine - The Beatles (1st of 3 weeks at #1)
02 01 Come See About Me - The Supremes
03 03 Mr. Lonely - Bobby Vinton
04 14 She's a Woman - The Beatles
05 04 She's Not There - The Zombie
06 07 Goin' Out Of My Head - Little Anthony & The Imperials
07 05 Ringo - Lorne Greene
08 08 Dance, Dance, Dance - The Beach Boys
09 12 The Jerk - The Larks
10 06 Time Is On My Side - The Rolling Stones
December 27, 1969
01 02 Someday We'll Be Together - Diana Ross & The Supremes (1st and only week at #1)
02 01 Leaving On a Jet Plane - Peter, Paul & Mary
03 05 Raindrops Keep Fallin' On My Head - B.J. Thomas
04 03 Down On The Corner / Fortunate Son - Creedence Clearwater Revival
05 04 Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye - Steam
06 09 Holly Holy - Neil Diamond
07 06 Come Together / Something - The Beatles
08 17 I Want You Back - The Jackson 5
09 12 Whole Lotta Love - Led Zeppelin
10 08 Take a Letter Maria - R.B. Greaves
December 28, 1974
01 03 Angie Baby - Helen Reddy (1st and only week at #1)
02 06 Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds - Elton John
03 05 You're The First, The Last, My Everything - Barry White
04 02 Kung Fu Fighting - Carl Douglas
05 01 Cat's In The Cradle - Harry Chapin
06 08 Junior's Farm - Paul McCartney & Wings
07 04 When Will I See You Again - The Three Degrees
08 12 Laughter In The Rain - Neil Sedaka
09 14 Only You - Ringo Starr
10 13 Boogie On Reggae Woman - Stevie Wonder
24 59 Fire - The Ohio Players
1979 Year-End Top 10
1. My Sharona - The Knack (#1, August)
2. Bad Girls - Donna Summer (#1, July)
3. Le Freak - Chic (#1, December 1978)
4. Da Ya Think I'm Sexy? - Rod Stewart (#1, February)
5. Reunited - Peaches & Herb (#1, May)
6. I Will Survive - Gloria Gaynor (#1, March)
7. Hot Stuff - Donna Summer (#1, June)
8. Y.M.C.A. - The Village People (#2, February)
9. Ring My Bell - Anita Ward (#1, June)
10. Sad Eyes - Robert John (#1, October)
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