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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 17, 2019 10:25:15 GMT -5
Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/12/17
1(=) Lizzo - Good as Hell 128.47(-0.33)
2(=) Post Malone - Circles 126.86(+0.73)
3(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 111.46(+0.97)
4(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 107.23(-0.39)
5(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 102.22(+1.40)
6(=) Dan + Shay & Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 102.10(+1.44)
7(=) SHAED - Trampoline 85.39(-1.09)
8(=) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 75.60(-0.83)
9(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 73.95(+0.51)
10(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 71.83(-1.01)
20(+1) The Weeknd - Heartless 52.39(+1.51) 22(+1) Tones and I - Dance Monkey 50.24(+1.00) 33(+1) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 45.58(+1.27)
40(+3) Young Thug - Hot (feat. Gunna) 35.06(+0.76) 51(+4) blackbear - hot girl bummer 28.52(+0.73)
67(+3) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 23.54(+1.07)
69(+5) Harry Styles - Adore You 23.46(+1.83)
-(-) Tory Lanez & T-Pain - Jerry Sprunger 14.59(+0.70)
-(-) Ed Sheeran - South of the Border (feat. Camila Cabello & Cardi B) 11.48(+0.84)
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 17, 2019 10:31:04 GMT -5
I don't know if anybody else noticed that Pandora now updates their weekly Top Spins chart on Mondays. Circles has been #1 there for the last 5 weeks.
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shayonce
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Post by shayonce on Dec 17, 2019 11:04:48 GMT -5
promo in on fire.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Dec 17, 2019 11:15:07 GMT -5
This is more for the January 4 thread, when it's created. |
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Dec 17, 2019 11:18:50 GMT -5
She's coming for that 500 point number one lol
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Post by Lukas on Dec 17, 2019 12:18:13 GMT -5
She's coming for that 500 point number one lol If AIWFCIY reaches 500 points on Christmas week, it will log the biggest week on the chart since Lil Nas X's "Old Town Road" was at #1. For reference, the song with the biggest week on the chart so far after OTR was at #1 was Travis Scott's "Highest in the Room" with around 450 points, largely in part to its impressive on-demand streams. |
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Dec 17, 2019 12:20:32 GMT -5
Could the Blake/Gwen duet debut? It’s been #1 on iTunes until falling to #2 this week due to The Voice songs.
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Dec 17, 2019 12:55:00 GMT -5
After the Christmas songs drop out, will Adore You have a chance to enter the top ten?
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Post by thegreatdivine on Dec 17, 2019 13:47:52 GMT -5
I'm amazed on how well Harry Styles is doing on Spotify. Can you post his numbers in the Spotify thread? |
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ccchui
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Post by ccchui on Dec 17, 2019 16:47:52 GMT -5
This is more for the January 4 thread, when it's created. Now she secured the no.1 spot in Billboard Hot 100. I feel this is actually not really for US Chart anymore. I feel it is more targeting the UK chart now. I think she has the best chance to get to #1 there the week after their traditional Christmas week chart. She get to #2 there last year on the week after the Christmas chart week there (which beginning, Dec 20 to 26 for this year) |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Dec 17, 2019 16:59:32 GMT -5
^The plan probably was to maximize everything for Christmas week- the singles, the video, etc. as they may not have expected the song to hit the top two charts before then. It's not like she just shot the video this past week. :)
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kierz7
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Post by kierz7 on Dec 17, 2019 18:28:21 GMT -5
I CANT WAIT for Rihanna and/or Mariah Carey to tie and/or surpass The Beatles in number ones.
It needs to happen!
Rihanna needs to hurry up and come out of music retirement and Mariah Carey needs to collaborate with every huge Streaming act there is - no more old age Rappers that no one gives a sh*t about anymore.
💅
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Dec 17, 2019 18:59:53 GMT -5
The Box is definitely going to be a huge hit.
Adore You is a total ripoff of Borderline by Tame Impala but that's not a bad thing and I like the song so
and SLOW DANCING has been taking me on an emotional rollercoaster for the past 4 months but maybe this time it can bust through the top 50
Overall i'm pretty excited for the new stuff in 2020
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Dec 17, 2019 19:10:33 GMT -5
What will be #16 on the next chart?
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 17, 2019 20:36:58 GMT -5
Could the Blake/Gwen duet debut? It’s been #1 on iTunes until falling to #2 this week due to The Voice songs. It's unclear at this point. It's not on radio yet and just under the top 300 on Apple Music. It will probably not even be #2 in Digital Song Sales due to the complete my album losses related to Blake's new album release. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 17, 2019 20:46:11 GMT -5
12/17/2019 by Hilary Hughes
Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas Is You" created yet another major holiday moment Tuesday night (Dec. 17) when the pop star joined forces with a New York City icon to literally light up the city.
To celebrate the 25th anniversary of her Merry Christmas album and its smash single -- which currently reigns in the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 chart -- Carey, in a sparkling platinum dress that perfectly matched her surroundings, stopped by the Empire State Building to flip the switch to the top of the legendary skyscraper for on a brand new music-to-light show with "All I Want for Christmas Is You" at the heart of it.
Designed by Marc Brickman, the lights of the NYC landmark will correspond with the notes of her holiday hit -- which will play simultaneously on iHeartMedia New York’s Z100, Power 105.1, 103.5 KTU and 106.7 Lite FM starting at 8 p.m. from Thursday through Christmas Day.
"Each year, the Empire State Building partners with iHeartRadio to celebrate the holiday season with a spectacular LED music-to light show," said Jean-Yves Ghazi, the President of the Empire State Building observatory, said by way of Carey's introduction. "This year, we're delighted to be syncing our tower of lights and counting down to Christmas with this holiday classic that's also celebrating reaching No. 1 on Billboard's Hot 100 on its 25th anniversary."
Billboard's Editorial Director Hannah Karp and senior director of charts (Billboard Hot 100, Pop, Adult), Gary Trust were also on hand to celebrate the occasion and present Carey with an award for her most recent Billboard chart accomplishment.
"Topping the Billboard charts is nothing new for Mariah: until this week, she had had 18 songs reach No. 1 on our Hot 100 chart, which is more than any other female solo artist," said Karp. "But it's extremely rare for a Christmas song to top the Hot 100, and it's equally tough to crack the Christmas market with an original tune that can outsell or outstream traditional carols."
"All I Want for Christmas Is You" reached No. 1 on the Hot 100 25 years after its initial release; it had previously broken into the top 10 in 2017 and rose as high as No. 3 in 2018, and Carey is elated to add this particular song to her collection of No. 1s.
"We definitely wanted to kick it into high gear this year with the song to celebrate the 25th anniversary, but I definitely didn’t expect it to hit No. 1 two weeks before Christmas!" she told Billboard shortly after hearing the news on Monday. "I just want to thank everybody. I want the world to have the best holiday ever."
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 17, 2019 20:48:55 GMT -5
Could the Blake/Gwen duet debut? It’s been #1 on iTunes until falling to #2 this week due to The Voice songs. It's unclear at this point. It's not on radio yet and just under the top 300 on Apple Music. It will probably not even be #2 in Digital Song Sales due to the complete my album losses related to Blake's new album release. CMA only effects the Digital Songs chart position and its total sales. It does not effect the weekly sales submitted to the Hot 100. While it may be far lower on the DS chart, it will still be treated as the #2 most sold song of the week for Hot 100 purposes. This change was made back in like 2013/2014 I believe. (Of course it's still not guaranteed to chart based on that because digital sales are so low.) |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Dec 17, 2019 22:05:13 GMT -5
^The thing in parenthesis is the point I was going to make. The Digital Songs Sales I am aware of it as well.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Dec 17, 2019 22:23:54 GMT -5
2020 will be special.
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Ernesto
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Post by Ernesto on Dec 17, 2019 23:14:32 GMT -5
Mariah Carey needs to collaborate with every huge Streaming act there is - no more old age Rappers that no one gives a sh*t about anymore. 💅 I agree with this. It's nice of her to give a shot to new rappers but it would be a brilliant thing for Mariah to come up with a successful collaboration with a current Streaming giant. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Dec 17, 2019 23:23:35 GMT -5
I'm really digging Fine Line. I like it even more than Harry's self-titled debut.
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cking33
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Post by cking33 on Dec 18, 2019 0:11:31 GMT -5
Designed by Marc Brickman, the lights of the NYC landmark will correspond with the notes of her holiday hit -- which will play simultaneously on iHeartMedia New York’s Z100, Power 105.1, 103.5 KTU and 106.7 Lite FM starting at 8 p.m. from Thursday through Christmas Day.
What does this mean exactly? That starting Thursday and going through Christmas if you turn on any one of those stations you'll hear the song playing? That seems, not right? Or that they're all going to play the song at the exact same time? |
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atg
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Post by atg on Dec 18, 2019 8:12:52 GMT -5
Imagine a Mariah ft. Post song. How would that really sound. Or a Mariah ft. The Weeknd
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Post by violentdreams on Dec 18, 2019 8:15:12 GMT -5
I'm actually predicting that Drake will try to give Mariah a #1 in 2020 by featuring her on a single. He already sampled her on Scorpion.
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Dec 18, 2019 9:07:25 GMT -5
Blinding Lights has passed Heartless on Spotify.
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anorable
Charting
Blinding Lights for Top 10!
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Post by anorable on Dec 18, 2019 9:08:36 GMT -5
I'm actually predicting that Drake will try to give Mariah a #1 in 2020 by featuring her on a single. He already sampled her on Scorpion. Could see it happening. I sure don’t see Mariah saying no to a potential 20th. |
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Post by violentdreams on Dec 18, 2019 9:09:00 GMT -5
Blinding Lights has passed Heartless on Spotify. As it rightfully should. |
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Post by violentdreams on Dec 18, 2019 9:12:52 GMT -5
Also, The Box is at 1.1 million streams on Spotify now, in addition to being #1 on AM.
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renaboss
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Post by renaboss on Dec 18, 2019 9:19:43 GMT -5
Is it odd that even though Mariah's my favorite I actually don't want her to surpass the Beatles? I'm perfectly content with this being her last #1.
I do believe a 20th #1 would have to be POPULAR ARTIST ft. Mariah Carey, rather than Mariah Carey ft. POPULAR ARTIST. We all know by now collabs between megastars don't necessarily make for mega-hits, so it's best to relegate her to a feature. I wonder how well Mariah Carey & Ariana Grande would do though.
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Post by Lukas on Dec 18, 2019 9:29:33 GMT -5
12/28/2019 Early Predictions:I made some changes to my formula so everything here should be more accurate. Mainly: 1) I changed my running formula a little bit. Basically, radio/7000 + sales/6 + weighted streaming/1500 changed to radio/7500 + sales/5 + weighted streaming/1500, which I found to be slightly more consistent with my formula. 2) I changed how I'm calculating UGC, as well as placing some more of the on-demand streams into the paid tiers (a full point) for Christmas songs (since Amazon music is completely paid), and I was informed that some of the Pandora streams were actually UGC streams, so a fixed percentage of Pandora streams are weighed 2/3rds of a point (they're still listed in the passive tier). Also, I have GAH, ITMWTOTY, and FS2020 not far behind BOP (all are less than 500 points behind it!). FS2020 could make it safely into the top 10 depending on its AM numbers/UGC views. Fun fact: AIWFCIY is at #1 with a comfortable 27.2% lead over RATCT for this week. If this is accurate, this means that this is the biggest ratio in points between the #1 and the #2 song ever since OTR commanded the chart. Before this week, the biggest ratio between points between #1 and #2 after OTR commanded the chart was when "Highest in the Room" beat "Truth Hurts" by about a 25% lead. | Rank | Song | Radio | Sales | On-Demand Streaming | Free Streaming | Passive Streaming | Total Streaming | Weighted Streaming | Total Points | | 1 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | 40,300,000 | 11,500 | 30,900,000 | 13,700,000 | 7,200,000 | 51,800,000 | 43,500,000 | 36,673 | | 2 | Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree | 35,700,000 | 6,000 | 25,000,000 | 4,100,000 | 12,000,000 | 41,100,000 | 34,300,000 | 28,827 | | 3 | Circles | 98,800,000 | 12,000 | 16,200,000 | 3,600,000 | 3,150,000 | 22,950,000 | 19,500,000 | 28,573 | | 4 | Roxanne | 39,500,000 | 6,000 | 17,300,000 | 15,300,000 | 1,900,000 | 34,500,000 | 27,600,000 | 24,867 | | 5 | A Holly Jolly Christmas | 28,900,000 | 2,000 | 22,700,000 | 3,800,000 | 9,500,000 | 36,000,000 | 30,300,000 | 24,453 | | 6 | Memories | 88,200,000 | 12,500 | 9,200,000 | 7,100,000 | 2,550,000 | 18,850,000 | 14,900,000 | 24,193 | | 7 | Someone You Loved | 79,000,000 | 10,000 | 11,200,000 | 6,300,000 | 2,650,000 | 20,150,000 | 16,300,000 | 23,400 | | 8 | Dance Monkey | 41,800,000 | 14,500 | 12,400,000 | 12,200,000 | 1,750,000 | 26,350,000 | 20,900,000 | 22,407 | | 9 | Jingle Bell Rock | 28,100,000 | 2,000 | 22,800,000 | 3,900,000 | 4,100,000 | 30,800,000 | 27,200,000 | 22,280 | | 10 | BOP | 21,300,000 | 4,000 | 16,000,000 | 17,000,000 | 2,100,000 | 35,100,000 | 27,700,000 | 22,107 |
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