Billboard Hot 100: 08/01/2020

[kimberly]

Jul 23, 2020 8:37:01 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:28:48 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Depending on what the song ("Cardigan") sounds like, whether it's sent to radio, and whether the album gets love from the critics, I don't see a point in counting her out completely. You do realize folk is a very broad genre, and she's still working with Jack Antonoff for example, the one she made "Out of the Woods," "Getaway Car," "Death by a Thousand Cuts," and "The Archer" with. Taylor's career has been built off of folk, and there is definitely a market for it. 

"Ho Hey" by the Lumineers, "Riptide" by Vance Joy, "Let Her Go" by Mumford & Sons, "Budapest" by George Ezra, "The A Team" and "Castle on the Hill" by Ed Sheeran, "Slow Hands" by Niall Horran, and "Shallow" by Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper are among decent sized folk hits, and Taylor is a way more established artist than they were when they released these songs. It isn't a common genre at the top of the charts, but it's not never done like you claim it to be.

What I actually meant was that I don't believe she's aiming for hits with this album (I hope the songs do well enough on streaming to all debut on the Hot 100). That's the vibe I'm getting with the way she's releasing the album. I think it would be great if something from the album sticks, but for some reason, I just don't believe that will happen. Not that it matters either way. I love acoustic Taylor so I'm really excited about the hearing the album. I can't wait to hear what the song with Bon Iver sounds like.

yes! bring this energy into these threads more often, please.

from watching her documentary earlier this year, I can tell she just wants to do whatever makes her happy, and she's self-conscious about her recent output not getting the critical acclaim she's normally used to. "Death by a Thousand Cuts" is my favorite from her and songs like "State of Grace" and "Begin Again" (the whole of RED, really) are up there so I'm excited. 

11 of the 16 tracks were also done with one of The National members I believe.

also, I guessed the name of the album in a now-iconic exchange on June 5th. gagged! little did I know!

[starlord]

Jul 23, 2020 8:22:18 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

cardigan will probably debut in the top 10 with one or two songs in the top 40.

no disrespect, but this is UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR. Watch all her songs dominating Top 40 on AM/Spotify/Itunes. No matter the quality, genre or any other parameters, her stans gonna eat this for first week atleast.

[GP]

Jul 23, 2020 8:45:56 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:37:01 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

What I actually meant was that I don't believe she's aiming for hits with this album (I hope the songs do well enough on streaming to all debut on the Hot 100). That's the vibe I'm getting with the way she's releasing the album. I think it would be great if something from the album sticks, but for some reason, I just don't believe that will happen. Not that it matters either way. I love acoustic Taylor so I'm really excited about the hearing the album. I can't wait to hear what the song with Bon Iver sounds like.

yes! bring this energy into these threads more often, please.

from watching her documentary earlier this year, I can tell she just wants to do whatever makes her happy, and she's self-conscious about her recent output not getting the critical acclaim she's normally used to. "Death by a Thousand Cuts" is my favorite from her and songs like "State of Grace" and "Begin Again" (the whole of RED, really) are up there so I'm excited. 

11 of the 16 tracks were also done with one of The National members I believe.

also, I guessed the name of the album in a now-iconic exchange on June 5th. gagged! little did I know!

oh wow the impact...maybe you named the album for her, the impact

[GP]

Jul 23, 2020 8:49:38 GMT -5 starlord said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:22:18 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

cardigan will probably debut in the top 10 with one or two songs in the top 40.

no disrespect, but this is UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR. Watch all her songs dominating Top 40 on AM/Spotify/Itunes. No matter the quality, genre or any other parameters, her stans gonna eat this for first week atleast.

J Cole and possibly Kanye will make it harder imo

[kimberly]

Jul 23, 2020 8:50:31 GMT -5 GP said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:45:56 GMT -5 kimberly said:

also, I guessed the name of the album in a now-iconic exchange on June 5th. gagged! little did I know!

oh wow the impact...maybe you named the album for her, the impact

[billboardtopten]

Jul 23, 2020 8:51:04 GMT -5 GP said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:49:38 GMT -5 starlord said:

no disrespect, but this is UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR. Watch all her songs dominating Top 40 on AM/Spotify/Itunes. No matter the quality, genre or any other parameters, her stans gonna eat this for first week atleast.

J Cole and possibly Kanye will make it harder imo

taylor is a bigger streaming force than both of them (possibly combined)

[kierz7]

16 versions? ☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️

Isn’t next week the last chart week where BB will be counting such bundles anyhow?

Well, it’s smart of her team to make the most of it until the rule comes into play, even though Lady Gaga got dragged across Twitter for doing the same.

[shaz196]

Taylor gets to block Kanye and get her last bit of bundles out, queen of petty

[wavey.]

kierz7 it's a mess on Twitter lol. "Oh this person did different versions and got shit for it, and this and that...."

It never fails.

[Xander]

Taylor releasing an album a year after her last one underperformed is a bad idea. Especially with this new route she’s taking for this one. She’s kinda over saturating herself.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 23, 2020 9:13:36 GMT -5 Xander said:

Taylor releasing an album a year after her last one underperformed is a bad idea. Especially with this new route she’s taking for this one. She’s kinda over saturating herself.

as thegreatdivine said, it doesn't look like she'll be looking to score mainstream hits with this album so I don't think this will be her overwhelming us with material. and it's not like she's been omnipresent over the past few months: outside of The Man, her documentary, plus a few home concerts, she's been quiet and out of the spotlight for once.

[strongerq]

Jul 22, 2020 22:14:51 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

How is Circles doing on Spotify as of now, 10 months after its release?

Well it is holding pretty solid. Last friday was Circles 46th week. Here are the 46th weeks for other big songs. I included the previous 2 weeks just in case something happened and increased the streams in a certain week, so we can have a clearer picture.

Notes:

1) For songs released midweek (Without Me, Circles, MIDDLE CHILD ...) the partial week isn't counted (only full weeks).

2) The release date used for Old Tow Road is the first tracking week it charted on Billboard (8-14 March 2019)

3) The release date used for Girls Like You & Despacito is the release week of the remixes with Cardi B/Justin Bieber. Also only the Remix versions are displayed because the originals were not in top 200.

4) For XO TOUR Llif3 the release date used is 24-Mar-17 (release date on Spotify), not 26-Feb-17 (original release date on SoundCloud). Same with Lucid Dreams.

5) The 44th week for Lucid Dreams is the release of Juice WRLD's second album DRFL. - That is why i added the next 6 weeks aswell.

6) The 44th week for Bad Guy is 4 days after the Grammys. - That is why i added the next 6 weeks.

Song	week 44	week 45	week 46
Circles	3,789,640	3,638,785	3,532,091
Sunflower	5,708,772	5,423,553	5,651,824
Wow.	2,861,086	2,753,382	2,633,172
God's Plan	2,773,729	2,529,242	2,741,456
Old Town Road - Remix	2,047,952	1,891,781	1,753,537
7 Rings	1,974,058	2,004,164	2,120,182
Bad Guy	5,643,838	4,205,890	3,721,615
Bad Guy next 3	3,664,282	3,406,669	3,123,121
Bad Guy next 3	2,966,916	2,735,642	2,506,543
Rockstar	4,206,779	4,078,513	3,931,801
Psycho	2,996,242	3,285,058	3,239,582
Better Now	4,027,169	3,833,562	3,843,935
SICKO MODE	3,329,718	3,169,061	3,071,186
Without Me	2,135,686	2,084,555	2,053,684
Girls Like You	1,728,168	1,674,551	1,728,411
Shape Of You	2,249,686	2,269,221	2,340,603
Despacito - Remix	1,446,083	1,419,697	1,388,344
Congratulations	4,926,912	4,668,299	4,990,786
XO TOUR Llif3	4,640,030	4,662,661	4,452,291
Lucid Dreams	4,369,897	4,123,357	3,989,390
Lucid Dreams next 3	3,839,642	3,576,569	3,571,881
Lucid Dreams next 3	3,537,774	3,493,972	3,462,087
SAD!	4,982,709	5,044,666	5,055,461
HUMBLE.	4,339,161	4,118,953	3,827,245
MIDDLE CHILD	2,702,975	2,768,173	3,514,521
Closer	2,457,564	2,400,823	2,418,868
One Dance	2,871,909	3,004,718	2,774,429

Sunflower reigns supreme.

[GP]

Jul 23, 2020 8:58:26 GMT -5 billboardtopten said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:51:04 GMT -5 GP said:

J Cole and possibly Kanye will make it harder imo

taylor is a bigger streaming force than both of them (possibly combined)

Yeah, but they'll still make it harder for her to have lots of top40s

[starlord]

Jul 23, 2020 9:13:36 GMT -5 Xander said:

Taylor releasing an album a year after her last one underperformed is a bad idea. Especially with this new route she’s taking for this one. She’s kinda over saturating herself.

16 songs a year is not over saturation. What dababy - 3 albums in 18 months /Lil uzi - 32 songs plus mixtape  with future /Drake - 17 songs plus Full feature album on top of that countless features is what you can call over saturation.

I want this though, 440+ Pure debut . I dont care about Talyor/BTS, but kpop stans are beyond annoying on twitter. 

[strongerq]

Jul 23, 2020 8:58:26 GMT -5 billboardtopten said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:51:04 GMT -5 GP said:

J Cole and possibly Kanye will make it harder imo

taylor is a bigger streaming force than both of them (possibly combined)

Lmao. No

She is bigger then Kanye. But on streaming J. Cole is bigger than Taylor. And that is just FACTS.

KOD had 322.7M streams, Lover had 226.1M

Spotify US top 5

Taylor Swift - Look What You Made Me Do 3,828,478
Taylor Swift - ME! 3,578,756
Taylor Swift - Lover 2,639,428
Taylor Swift - You Need To Calm Down 2,459,661
Taylor Swift - The Man 2,405,751

J. Cole - KOD 4,233,070
J. Cole - MIDDLE CHILD 3,800,251
J. Cole - Photograph 3,561,388
J. Cole - ATM 3,408,026
J. Cole - Motiv8 3,357,778

[thegreatdivine]

Jul 23, 2020 8:45:56 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:37:01 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

What I actually meant was that I don't believe she's aiming for hits with this album (I hope the songs do well enough on streaming to all debut on the Hot 100). That's the vibe I'm getting with the way she's releasing the album. I think it would be great if something from the album sticks, but for some reason, I just don't believe that will happen. Not that it matters either way. I love acoustic Taylor so I'm really excited about the hearing the album. I can't wait to hear what the song with Bon Iver sounds like.

yes! bring this energy into these threads more often, please.

from watching her documentary earlier this year, I can tell she just wants to do whatever makes her happy, and she's self-conscious about her recent output not getting the critical acclaim she's normally used to. "Death by a Thousand Cuts" is my favorite from her and songs like "State of Grace" and "Begin Again" (the whole of RED, really) are up there so I'm excited. 

11 of the 16 tracks were also done with one of The National members I believe.

also, I guessed the name of the album in a now-iconic exchange on June 5th. gagged! little did I know!

Back to December & Sad Beautiful Tragic are my all-time favorite Taylor records (forlorn Taylor is my favorite Taylor). I just remembered that I haven't watched her documentary yet. I'll do that tonight before I listen to the new album. I think so, too. Lover really wasn't a bad album. I just think she could have made better choices with the first couple of singles she pushed and that might have ultimately affected how critics received the album. I'm still pissed Cruel Summer was never pushed as a single.

I appreciated how she credited everyone who contributed to the album and the video for the single she'll be pushing. I'd like to see more major artists do that. Everyone deserves public acknowledgement for their work.

[kierz7]

Jul 23, 2020 8:58:26 GMT -5 billboardtopten said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:51:04 GMT -5 GP said:

J Cole and possibly Kanye will make it harder imo

taylor is a bigger streaming force than both of them (possibly combined)

No. 💀☠️💀

One could argue that she is a bigger Streaming force than West (in terms of current releases) however she’s not a bigger Streaming force than J.Cole and it’s not even close.

Overall, the only Female acts that are on the ‘Male’ Streaming artists levels, if we count overall totals, are: Rihanna (even though she’s released one album in the streaming era), Ariana Grande and Billie Eilish.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jul 23, 2020 8:58:26 GMT -5 billboardtopten said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:51:04 GMT -5 GP said:

J Cole and possibly Kanye will make it harder imo

taylor is a bigger streaming force than both of them (possibly combined)

how?

first week (streaming)

Taylor - Lover (226 mil) - 18 songs

J Cole - KODE (323 mil) - 12 songs
J Cole - 4 Your Eyez Only (177 mil) - 10 songs

Kanye - Jesus Is King (197 mil) - 11 songs
Kanye - ye (180 mil) - 7 songs

[lazer]

Jul 23, 2020 8:28:48 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Jul 23, 2020 7:55:55 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

How does me saying I believe there won't be any hit singles from folklore = me "tearing" her apart? It sounds like it'll be a folk-inspired album based on it's name, it's aesthetic and the collaborators she has revealed. How many folk smash hits do you know? I actually think this is a nice idea. Dropping an album without the expectations of trying to score any hits. I don't get the vibe that she's aiming to score any hits with the release of this album. The album will debut at #1 easily and that's a win for her. I'm quite excited to hear it.

And I didn't make that post about her albums to come off as "sensational" or whatever you imagined in your head before writing that.

Depending on what the song ("Cardigan") sounds like, whether it's sent to radio, and whether the album gets love from the critics, I don't see a point in counting her out completely. You do realize folk is a very broad genre, and she's still working with Jack Antonoff for example, the one she made "Out of the Woods," "Getaway Car," "Death by a Thousand Cuts," and "The Archer" with. Taylor's career has been built off of folk, and there is definitely a market for it. 

"Ho Hey" by the Lumineers, "Riptide" by Vance Joy, "Let Her Go" by Mumford & Sons, "Budapest" by George Ezra, "The A Team" and "Castle on the Hill" by Ed Sheeran, "Slow Hands" by Niall Horran, and "Shallow" by Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper are among decent sized folk hits, and Taylor is a way more established artist than they were when they released these songs aside from Gaga, obviously. It isn't a common genre at the top of the charts, but it's not never done like you claim it to be.

Other folk songs that were big hits such as Good Life, A Thousand Years, I’m Yours, and Bubbly.

[shayonce]

Jul 23, 2020 8:58:35 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

16 versions? ☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️

Isn’t next week the last chart week where BB will be counting such bundles anyhow?

that's for single bundle, (current type of) album bundle will end after October first week.

[thegreatdivine]

Jul 23, 2020 9:22:22 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 23, 2020 9:13:36 GMT -5 Xander said:

Taylor releasing an album a year after her last one underperformed is a bad idea. Especially with this new route she’s taking for this one. She’s kinda over saturating herself.

as thegreatdivine said, it doesn't look like she'll be looking to score mainstream hits with this album so I don't think this will be her overwhelming us with material. and it's not like she's been omnipresent over the past few months: outside of The Man, her documentary, plus a few home concerts, she's been quiet and out of the spotlight for once.

I could see her viewing this as a side project of sorts. It's definitely a break from all the ridiculous expectations that plague all her pop albums. It's also a perfect release for the times we're currently living in. I love the idea of musicians finding inspiration during these times. I was very happy when Charli XCX made and released an album during the lockdown. She will be releasing a documentary about making the project soon and I'm looking forward to it.

[kimberly]

Jul 23, 2020 9:33:01 GMT -5 strongerq said:

Jul 23, 2020 8:58:26 GMT -5 billboardtopten said:

taylor is a bigger streaming force than both of them (possibly combined)

Lmao. No

She is bigger then Kanye. But on streaming J. Cole is bigger than Taylor. And that is just FACTS.

KOD had 322.7M streams, Love had 226.1M

Spotify US top 5

Taylor Swift - Look What You Made Me Do 3,828,478
Taylor Swift - ME! 3,578,756
Taylor Swift - Lover 2,639,428
Taylor Swift - You Need To Calm Down 2,459,661
Taylor Swift - The Man 2,405,751

J. Cole - KOD 4,233,070
J. Cole - MIDDLE CHILD 3,800,251
J. Cole - Photograph 3,561,388
J. Cole - ATM 3,408,026
J. Cole - Motiv8 3,357,778

to add:

Spotify US total streams

No Role Models - 393,210,835 
MIDDLE CHILD - 342,557,417
Wet Dreamz - 116,636,602
KOD - 80,773,017
Neighbors - 77,724,247

You Need To Calm Down - 112,829,742
Look What You Made Me Do - 89,718,682
Lover - 65,293,968
Delicate - 62,239,023
ME! - 57,391,669

(important to note Taylor's catalog pre-2017, as well as reputation when it was first released, were not available on Spotify.)

Taylor Swift obviously has much better video streams, though it doesn't make up for the difference here and on Apple I'd guess. 

[strongerq]

Taylor Swift really shot herself in the knee with removing he music in November 2014. (or technically Scott Borchetta)

X(Multiply) - released 2014 is the 3rd most streamed album on the platform.
Thinking Out Loud, Photograph, Uptown Funk, Stay With Me, Cheerleeder, Sugar & Chandalier are songs released in 2014 that have 1 Billion+ streams (some are north of 1.5B).
The streaming "boom" happened 2014/2015/2016 and Taylor Swift got left behind.

And why am i mentioning this years? Who had the biggest album in 2014? Who had insanely popular singles then?
The streaming average for Shake It Off during the peak was higher than Thinking Out Loud.

Taylor would have been top 3 on streaming guaranteed (maybe even on par with Ed sheeran, who knows).

And why was her music withdrawn from Spotify? - For stupid $$

[thegreatdivine]

😊

[amid]

-Taylor’s album will be huge because duh.
-Logic’s album should some numbers because it’s his last album and the much-awaited sequel to his “Under Pressure” album.
-J. Cole’s new songs will be huge even despite the fact that they’re already out. Releasing midweek isn’t really that bad when releasing right before the start of the next week.
-Idk about Kanye, but I doubt he’ll actually release.

[starlord]

[Mayman]

Jul 23, 2020 7:31:21 GMT -5 fhas said:

Cole, Taylor and maybe Kanye? Oh... there is a mini Logic album bomb too... at this point, declining songs will go ~20-Recurrent next week. 

Gunna, Juice WRLD Deluxe, Pop Smoke Deluxe week 2, etc.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates | 2020/07/23

1(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 142.23(+0.29)
2(=) Harry Styles - Adore You 124.62(-0.66)
3(=) DaBaby - ROCKSTAR (feat. Roddy Ricch) 112.60(+1.46)
4(=) Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 107.84(+1.81)
5(=) Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 100.62(+1.09)
6(=) SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 98.02(+0.23)
7(+1) Post Malone - Circles 94.86(-0.51)
8 (-1) Megan Thee Stallion - Savage Remix (feat. Beyoncé) 94.14(-1.47)
9(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 90.42(-1.08)
10(=) Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 85.49(+0.20)

20(+2) Miranda Lambert - Bluebird 57.81(+0.83)

24(=) Powfu - death bed (feat. beabadoobee) [coffee for your head] 56.44(+0.53)

26(=) Chris Janson - Done 51.05(+0.74)

28(=) Maddie & Tae - Die From A Broken Heart 48.55(+0.61)

54(+2) Lil Baby - Emotionally Scarred 29.27(+0.78)

57(+8) Jawsh 685 X Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed-Siren Beat) 28.91(+2.16) +

65(+2) Trevor Daniel & Selena Gomez - Past Life 26.63(+0.90)

78(+13) DJ Khaled - POPSTAR (feat. Drake) 21.22(+2.86)

-(-) DJ Khaled - GREECE (feat. Drake) 15.54(+0.99)

-(-) Mulatto - B***h From Da Souf 13.38(+0.56)

-(-) Pop Smoke - The Woo (feat. 50 Cent & Roddy Ricch) 12.01(+0.82)

-(-) Kane Brown, Swae Lee, Khalid - Be Like That 10.61(+0.65)

-(-) Kenny Chesney - Happy Does 4.71(+0.83)

-(-) Alex Rose - Jangueo f/Rafa Pabon 1.48(+1.48)

[starlord]

Jul 23, 2020 10:31:58 GMT -5 Mayman said:

Jul 23, 2020 7:31:21 GMT -5 fhas said:

Cole, Taylor and maybe Kanye? Oh... there is a mini Logic album bomb too... at this point, declining songs will go ~20-Recurrent next week. 

Juice WRLD Deluxe

I don't think they gonna drop that this week, Kid Laroi is dropping mixtape, he is also signed by Lil bibby and juice was like his mentor, chances are almost zero.

[Mayman]

Jul 23, 2020 11:08:08 GMT -5 starlord said:

Jul 23, 2020 10:31:58 GMT -5 Mayman said:

Juice WRLD Deluxe

I don't think they gonna drop that this week, Kid Laroi is dropping mixtape, he is also signed by Lil bibby, chances are almost zero.

Oh okay. I just assumed it would be tonight since they're teasing that Juice/Weeknd collab so much.