2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[kingscouser]

Well is seems like next week drivers license is hitting number one. Its crazy how this song just came out of no where and is doing 3 million on Spotify. Anyone know anything about her?

[nathanalbright]

Jan 10, 2021 18:59:51 GMT -5 inverse said:

Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month

We've got a hot take contender right here.

[Groovy]

This top 10 is alright but it doesn't reflect what's popular, you're telling me people care more about I Hope and Go Crazy than Whoopty, 34+35, Dakiti, Without You, etc?

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Jan 11, 2021 15:05:31 GMT -5 kingscouser said:

Anyone know anything about her?

Jan 11, 2021 22:07:20 GMT -5 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 said:

Jan 11, 2021 21:51:17 GMT -5 irice22 said:

Wait HOW is this blowing up? The song is obviously great, but do people just like the song that much? Or does this girl already have a huge following?

As a Disney alum who previously charted with “All I Want” [#90] and has been on High School Musical & Bizaardvark, she’d already established herself with the 13/14-and-unders. The TikTok success of “All I Want” familiarized high schoolers & young adults with her. At this point, she has an established fanbase but is unknown to older people.

Recently, a tabloid story about her, Joshua Bassett (another new Disney alum) and Sabrina Carpenter began, intriguing fans of all 3 celebrities. The proximity between the announcements of “driver’s license” and ex Bassett’s own next single “Lie Lie Lie” further stoked the fires of drama.

All this buzz resulted in a solid streaming & sales debut fueled by mostly under-18s that shocked those not familiar with Rodrigo or the drama surrounding her. Curious, they then took a listen, boosting the track’s numbers further. More articles come out about Taylor Swift complimenting her & cheering her on and about the older blonde referenced in the lyrics (speculated to be Sabrina Carpenter) which boosted it once more. People read those articles and then checked out the song. It’s a snowball effect. All these factors + the currently weak sales/streaming climate resulted in her dominance.

[atg]

Jan 11, 2021 9:22:17 GMT -5 liam1396 said:

If Blinding Lights were to male the 2021 year end,how high will it be on the list? I only ask because it's been around for over a year now and while it has had an okay run so far, it hasn't been an amazing one either . Even with it returning to the charts at number 3, i can't see it lasting much longer

With the superbowl it has a chance to hit #1. That’s gonna be on the Feb 20 chart since the show happens on Feb 7. That’s the 14th week of the Billboard 2021 chart year. We’re on the 9th week rn meaning BL already got 2 months (8 weeks) worth of chart performance in the top 20. I’m pretty sure it could make it high enough and its bonus points if it could linger around after the big event

[atg]

Jan 11, 2021 22:01:09 GMT -5 Groovy said:

This top 10 is alright but it doesn't reflect what's popular, you're telling me people care more about I Hope and Go Crazy than Whoopty, 34+35, Dakiti, Without You, etc?

Leave the top 3 as it is and include Good Days, Driver’s License, Whoopty, Levitating, and Lemonade. That’s the true reflection of what’s popular right now. I guess LNCL as well and it would be regardless especially of what’s coming soon. The JB songs, Bang, I Hope (especially), and Go Crazy should all be replaced for these other songs and quickly

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jan 11, 2021 23:51:18 GMT -5 atg said:

Jan 11, 2021 22:01:09 GMT -5 Groovy said:

This top 10 is alright but it doesn't reflect what's popular, you're telling me people care more about I Hope and Go Crazy than Whoopty, 34+35, Dakiti, Without You, etc?

Leave the top 3 as it is and include Good Days, Driver’s License, Whoopty, Levitating, and Lemonade. That’s the true reflection of what’s popular right now. I guess LNCL as well and it would be regardless especially of what’s coming soon. The JB songs, Bang, I Hope (especially), and Go Crazy should all be replaced for these other songs and quickly

Why "I Hope" especially? It has more streams than Holy, Bang! and Go Crazy...and almost the same as Laugh Now Cry Later. Yes, it's Drake, but the radio carries the song, not streaming.

[lifeofaguardian]

Week 9 - 16/01/2021

Guess who's back for another year of predictions! Now that the christmas songs have gone, my forecast can stop being overwhelmed by them.

Current Status (all songs over 125.000 points, 185.000 points to be considered locked):

Added this week:
Ava Max - Kings & Queens
Billie Eilish - therefore I Am
Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby - Levitating
AJR - Bang!

Drop-Outs this week:
None

Songs Locked this week:
Ariana Grande - Positions

Songs Crossing the Cut-off this week:
Justin Bieber ft. Chance the Rapper - Holy

Currently lowest Locked song:
Ariana Grande - Positions

Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:
1 week:
Justin Bieber ft. Chance the Rapper - Holy

2 weeks:
Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later
Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth - I Hope
Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy
the Weeknd - Blinding Lights

3 weeks:
BTS - Dynamite
Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don toliver & NAV - Lemonade
Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez - Dakiti
Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby - For the Night
Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby - Levitating

4 weeks:
Ava Max - Kings & Queens
Billie Eilish - therefore I Am
AJR - Bang!

5 weeks:
Ariana Grande - 34+35

Crossing cutoff in 5 weeks:
Megan thee Stallion - Body
Justin Bieber & benny blanco - Lonely

Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:
#90: Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You
#103: Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree


Forecast (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):

[dremolus - solarpunk]

So anyone wanna make bets as to how many weeks 'drivers license' will be on top? I think a safe prediction is 7 weeks

[After Minutes]

Jan 12, 2021 12:09:21 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So anyone wanna make bets as to how many weeks 'drivers license' will be on top? I think a safe prediction is 7 weeks

Depends on the strength of Drake's next single

[whales10268]

What is wrong with Bang and AJR lol?

[inverse]

Jan 12, 2021 12:09:21 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So anyone wanna make bets as to how many weeks 'drivers license' will be on top? I think a safe prediction is 7 weeks

1 week before it pulls a Trollz & we are blessed with 6ix9ine profile pic for a month

[PositivityMaster48]

2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 9/52)
(01/16/2021)
Locked: None
Locked Next Week: Positions
Note: Got rid of all the Christmas songs below the Top 50, as I see no point in having them on the list.
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 26,090
===LOCKED CUTOFF (20,000 POINTS)===
2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 19,940
3 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 18,470
4 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 17,180
5 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 16,950
6 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 16,650
7 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 16,620
8 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 15,560
9 “Dynamite” BTS 15,380
10 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 15,180
11 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 15,150
12 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 14,710
13 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 14,450
14 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 13,640
15 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 13,620
16 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 13,430
17 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 13,380
18 “Bang!” AJR 12,720
19 “34+35” Ariana Grande 12,230
20 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 11,250
21 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 11,130
22 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 11,100
23 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 10,890
24 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 10,540
25 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 10,250
26 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 10,220
27 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 9,980
28 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 9,790
29 “Better Together” Luke Combs 9,610
30 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590
31 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 9,580
32 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 9,390
33 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 9,040
34 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 8,940
35 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 8,750
36 “Last Christmas” Wham! 8,690
37 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 8,480
38 “Whoopty” CJ 8,410
39 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 8,300
40 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 8,090
41 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 8,060
42 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 8,020
43 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 7,950
44 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 7,680
45 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 7,590
46 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 7,480
47 “Willow” Taylor Swift 7,380
48 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 7,260
49 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,160
50 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 7,050
51 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 6,900
52 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 6,590
53 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 6,250
54 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 6,220
55 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 6,140
56 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 6,090
57 “Good Time” Niko Moon 6,040
58 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 5,870
59 “Champagne Night” Lady A 5,790
60 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,690
61 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400
62 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 5,380
63 “On Me” Lil Baby 5,330
64 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 5,140
65 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 5,100
66 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 5,090
67 “Took Her To The O” King Von 5,080
68 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 5,060
69 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930
70 “Golden” Harry Styles 4,900
71 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 4,900
72 “Said Sum” Moneybagg Yo 4,860
73 “pov” Ariana Grande 3,950
74 “Without You” The Kid Laroi 3,900
75 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 3,890
76 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 3,410
77 “Bichota” Karol G 3,410
78 “One Of Them Girls” Lee Brice 3,370
79 “One Beer” Hardy ft. Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson 3,330
80 “Don’t Stop” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug 3,290
81 “Afterglow” Ed Sheeran 3,150
82 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 3,130
83 “Martin & Gina” Polo G 2,940
84 “Happy Does” Kenny Chesney 2,770
85 “Come & Go” Juice WRLD ft. Marshmello 2,770
86 “Take You Dancing” Jason Derulo 2,350
87 “Champagne Problems” Taylor Swift 2,350
88 “Beers And Sunshine” Darius Rucker 2,300
89 “Heather” Conan Gray 2,220
90 “La Noche De Anoche” Bad Bunny and Rosalia 2,210
91 “Good Days” SZA 2,190
92 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170
93 “Got What I Got” Jason Aldean 2,060
94 “Tequila Shots” Kid Cudi 1,990
95 “Errbody” Lil Baby 1,890
96 “Anyone” Justin Bieber 1,880
97 “U 2 Luv” Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 1,880
98 “Drankin N Smokin” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 1,720
99 “Still Goin Down” Morgan Wallen 1,680
100 “Save Your Tears” The Weeknd 1,370

[inverse]

Here's the TOTC predictions for week 8 (last week) just so they're recorded here

/photo/1

[joshtheking]

Ya'll didn't believe me when I said Bang! would have a similar run to Trampoline. And now it's outperforming it

[kcdawg13]

I'm ready for Blinding Lights to get a second year in the Top 10

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

I’ve been wondering about a group of songs -

What are the YE chances for “Diamonds”, “you broke me first”, “Hit Different” and “Kings & Queens”?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 13, 2021 6:20:10 GMT -5 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 said:

I’ve been wondering about a group of songs -

What are the YE chances for “Diamonds”, “you broke me first”, “Hit Different” and “Kings & Queens”?

I think Kings & Queens is safe for now, given it's been in the Top 40 for a month now, even throughout Christmas.

Hit Different might be safe if they time the album release properly and it recovers - similar to 'when the party's over'

you broke me first I think could also avoid getting caught, radio's picked it up and it's also recovered on streaming.

Diamonds I don't know though since it is Top 20 on Radio but that seems to be the only platform it's relevant on.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I would think Kings & Queens seems very likely, baring a major collapse on radio. All the other songs still have work to do by first avoiding going recurrent and then having enough longevity to pick up the necessary points to make it.

[Groovy]

Jan 12, 2021 18:07:12 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

Ya'll didn't believe me when I said Bang! would have a similar run to Trampoline. And now it's outperforming it

I actually said that this might be a top 10 hit in the future and turns I was right. 

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 12, 2021 15:51:25 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jan 12, 2021 12:09:21 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So anyone wanna make bets as to how many weeks 'drivers license' will be on top? I think a safe prediction is 7 weeks

1 week before it pulls a Trollz & we are blessed with 6ix9ine profile pic for a month

No take backs btw on the bet. If it makes the year-end you will have to change your profile to I Love It

[phieaglesfan712]

I will go with 4 weeks at #1 for drivers license before Blinding Lights takes it back after Super Bowl LV.

[gikem]

TOTC 2021 Year-End Predictions (Week 9/52, 17.3%)

Locked: Holy, Laugh Now Cry Later*, I Hope*
Expected to Lock Next Week: Go Crazy*, Dynamite*, Blinding Lights*, Lemonade

* = song that made the 2020 YE

[spoons]

2021 starting off strong:

3 female artists on top right now, which makes me extremely optimistic, and its all solid songs-
-Drivers License is a decent song, i feel like u guys are overhating because shes a disney star.
-Good Days is good, im rly glad SZA is doing well.
-Arianas Positions singles 34 and Positions are holding up pretty strong

Obligatory rap song from newcomer, but I've always liked the past hits such as Ransom, Roxanne, Thotiana etc. Whoopty is a pretty good song too.

Dua Lipa continuing her superstar streak and giving Dababy another hit, Lemonade and Mood holding up, and Save Your Tears finally released as a single

The only stinkers imo are Morgan cause i dont like country music (completly subjective)
And Mid Laroi hes really the worst. Its like Trevor Daniel but with actual industry backing. I cant with Mid Laroi fuking up Go ft. Juicewrld with his overbearing lisp, making a song about fking addison rae, and making a cheesy ass guitar ballad about hoe shaming.

[nathanalbright]

I think Mid Laroi is going to be my new name for him as well.

[gikem]

Jan 15, 2021 13:57:21 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

I think Mid Laroi is going to be my new name for him as well.

For me, it’s Sh*t Laroi. Let’s hope he gets no YE hits this year.

[Groovy]

Here we go with some more songs that I think will make the year-end list this year

driver's license- It's already projected to have two weeks at 1, it's a streaming monster, the sales are good and the radio is already on board. 

Good Days- Another streaming powerhouse and it could get to 1 but I don't know how far it'll go without a radio run. 

Anyone- Can we please stop with the Bieber hits, I will admit this is his better one so far but still. 

Afterglow- This song underperformed on streaming for Ed's standards but it's still rising on radio. 

[joshtheking]

how are Starting Over's chances looking for year end? I really hope it can make it

[gikem]

Jan 16, 2021 22:34:22 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

how are Starting Over's chances looking for year end? I really hope it can make it

Excluding songs that have peaked, I believe it’s #9 on country radio. Assuming it gets to #1 there and it sticks around in the top 40 through then, that would be at least 18 weeks toward the 2021 YE, so it should be good.

That seems to be an increasingly common trend for country songs that have early hype, as it looks to be the case for 7 Summers and probably Forever After All as well.

[Groovy]

Jan 16, 2021 11:34:06 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Here we go with some more songs that I think will make the year-end list this year

driver's license- It's already projected to have two weeks at 1, it's a streaming monster, the sales are good and the radio is already on board. 

Good Days- Another streaming powerhouse and it could get to 1 but I don't know how far it'll go without a radio run. 

Anyone- Can we please stop with the Bieber hits, I will admit this is his better one so far but still. 

Afterglow- This song underperformed on streaming for Ed's standards but it's still rising on radio. 

I forgot about Better Together which has a good radio run as well as I Should Probably Go To Bed.