2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[hobicorewithluv 🌞]

Next week I am not sure if BANG! will made it to Top 10 since if is made it, I will put chopsticks in my ears.

[gikem]

Jan 6, 2021 22:09:56 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

What's the cutoff so far?

TOTC currently has it at around 1600, with Mood, AIWFCIY, Positions, and RATCT all locked under their formula. That could change if points get stronger over the course of the year, but as of now, it's looking to be even lower than 2019's cutoff.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

I'm impressed to see not only "All I Want For Christmas Is You" making it again, but "Rockin Around The Christmas Tree" potentially getting a Year-End slot as well.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^The extra week in the Hot 100 thanks to Christmas day will hopefully make that true for the latter.

[joshtheking]

I really hope billboard changes the rules regarding Christmas songs. Otherwise AIWFCIY is gonna be #1 every year and is gonna make the year end eveyr year.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Jan 7, 2021 11:09:05 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I really hope billboard changes the rules regarding Christmas songs. Otherwise AIWFCIY is gonna be #1 every year and is gonna make the year end eveyr year.

Translation: I really hope billboard intervenes to make the chart less accurate so a song that might deservingly accumulate enough points to make the year end chart each year is kept out.

[PositivityMaster48]

2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 8/52)
(01/09/2021)
Locked This Week: None
Locked Next Week: None
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 23,310
===LOCKED CUTOFF (20,000 POINTS)===
2 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 18,470
3 “Positions” Ariana Grande 17,720
4 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 16,620
5 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 15,210
6 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 15,200
7 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 14,970
8 “Dynamite” BTS 14,240
9 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 13,630
10 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 13,630
11 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 13,430
12 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 13,340
13 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 13,170
14 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 12,880
15 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 12,310
16 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 12,140
17 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 11,610
18 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 11,250
19 “Bang!” AJR 11,010
20 “34+35” Ariana Grande 10,730
21 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 10,220
22 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 10,140
23 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 9,980
24 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 9,610
25 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590
26 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 9,530
27 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 9,390
28 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 9,260
29 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 9,130
30 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 8,880
31 “Last Christmas” Wham! 8,690
32 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 8,520
33 “Better Together” Luke Combs 8,290
34 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 8,050
35 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 7,830
36 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 7,680
37 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 7,530
38 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 7,480
39 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 7,320
40 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 7,230
41 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 7,210
42 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 7,180
43 “Whoopty” CJ 7,160
44 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 7,120
45 “Sleigh Ride” The Ronnettes 7,050
46 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 6,650
47 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 6,520
48 “It’s Beginning To Look A Like Christmas” Perry Como 6,370
49 “Run Rudolph Run” Chuck Berry 6,210
50 “Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season” Andy Williams 6,200
51 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 6,150
52 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 6,150
53 “Willow” Taylor Swift 6,140
54 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 6,130
55 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 6,130
56 “Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer” Gene Autry 6,050
57 “White Christmas” Bing Crosby 5,920
58 “Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)” Darlene Love 5,900
59 “It’s Beginning To Look A Like Christmas” Michael Buble 5,710
60 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,690
61 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 5,680
62 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 5,560
63 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 5,540
64 “(There’s No Place Like) Home For The Holidays” Perry Como 5,520
65 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 5,420
66 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 5,400
67 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400
68 “Good Time” Niko Moon 5,190
69 “Here Comes Santa Claus” Gene Autry 5,160
70 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 5,070
71 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930
72 “Said Sum” Moneybagg Yo 4,860
73 “Champagne Night” Lady A 4,780
74 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 4,690
75 “Santa Tell Me” Ariana Grande 4,630
76 “Took Her To The O” King Von 4,580
77 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 4,500
78 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 4,450
79 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 4,380
80 “On Me” Lil Baby 4,370
81 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 4,260
82 “Golden” Harry Styles 4,250
83 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 4,120
84 “pov” Ariana Grande 3,950
85 “One Of Them Girls” Lee Brice 3,370
86 “One Beer” Hardy ft. Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson 3,330
87 “Don’t Stop” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug 3,290
88 “Without You” The Kid Laroi 3,120
89 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 3,000
90 “Martin & Gina” Polo G 2,940
91 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 2,770
92 “Come & Go” Juice WRLD ft. Marshmello 2,770
93 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 2,600
94 “Champagne Problems” Taylor Swift 2,350
95 “Heather” Conan Gray 2,220
96 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170
97 “Afterglow” Ed Sheeran 2,070
98 “Got What I Got” Jason Aldean 2,060
99 “Tequila Shots” Kid Cudi 1,990
100 “Errbody” Lil Baby 1,890

[mikerivera]

Jan 7, 2021 11:22:55 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Jan 7, 2021 11:09:05 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I really hope billboard changes the rules regarding Christmas songs. Otherwise AIWFCIY is gonna be #1 every year and is gonna make the year end eveyr year.

Translation: I really hope billboard intervenes to make the chart less accurate so a song that might deservingly accumulate enough points to make the year end chart each year is kept out.

The songs aren’t becoming popular because people are listening to them in the same context as they listen to other songs. Most people just put a Christmas playlist on to have seasonal music in the background. They usually aren’t even paying attention to the songs being played. It comes out of tradition, not the songs actually being popular. In any case, the bigger problem is that many songs are forced into early recurrence, taking away weeks that they might have needed/would have earned.

[nathanalbright]

And all those on-demand streams on Spotify and YouTube for AIWFCIY and RATCT? Seriously.

[gikem]

Jan 7, 2021 18:05:34 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Jan 7, 2021 11:22:55 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Translation: I really hope billboard intervenes to make the chart less accurate so a song that might deservingly accumulate enough points to make the year end chart each year is kept out.

The songs aren’t becoming popular because people are listening to them in the same context as they listen to other songs. Most people just put a Christmas playlist on to have seasonal music in the background. They usually aren’t even paying attention to the songs being played. It comes out of tradition, not the songs actually being popular. In any case, the bigger problem is that many songs are forced into early recurrence, taking away weeks that they might have needed/would have earned.

It's a bit of a double-edged sword, as most songs that end up getting pushed into recurrency by Christmas music are those that have been around for a while and already made the prior YE. I've said it a couple of times before, but if the Christmas music didn't chart in 2019-20, Sucker and I Don't Care would have replaced AIWFCIY and Walk Em Down on the 2020 YE.

However, I can definitely see what you're talking about when it comes to low-charting songs that don't have the longest shelf life, especially in country, where songs that reach their peak at or near the holidays typically get caught between years (e.g. One Beer, Happy Anywhere, and ISPGTB).

[phieaglesfan712]

I'm glad that Sucker and I Don't Care did not make it on the 2020 Year End chart. It would have been so wrong if they got a 2nd year end chart, and Sunflower didn't. Sunflower was still clearly bigger than those two songs in 2020, but got screwed by premature recurrency.

[mikerivera]

I wouldn’t say Sunflower got screwed. It was the second biggest song of 2019, only losing to the longest running #1 song of all time. It was also the 11th biggest song of the decade (by Billboard’s standards). It got what it deserved.

[Deleted]

Jan 7, 2021 11:22:55 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Jan 7, 2021 11:09:05 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I really hope billboard changes the rules regarding Christmas songs. Otherwise AIWFCIY is gonna be #1 every year and is gonna make the year end eveyr year.

Translation: I really hope billboard intervenes to make the chart less accurate so a song that might deservingly accumulate enough points to make the year end chart each year is kept out.

Compromise: Allow the Christmas songs to chart and make Year-End lists, but add an extra slot on the Year-End list for every Christmas song that makes it, so that we get 100 songs on the Year-End list that aren't just recurring songs that return every single year.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Jan 7, 2021 18:05:34 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Jan 7, 2021 11:22:55 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Translation: I really hope billboard intervenes to make the chart less accurate so a song that might deservingly accumulate enough points to make the year end chart each year is kept out.

The songs aren’t becoming popular because people are listening to them in the same context as they listen to other songs. Most people just put a Christmas playlist on to have seasonal music in the background. They usually aren’t even paying attention to the songs being played. It comes out of tradition, not the songs actually being popular. In any case, the bigger problem is that many songs are forced into early recurrence, taking away weeks that they might have needed/would have earned.

I mean, maybe, but the same could be said by most songs played on the radio, or songs people play at parties from whatever streaming service is connected to Alexa or Siri. It’s a reasonable assumption to make at Christmas but to assume it doesn’t happen with general hits playlists is a bit naive.

Charts don’t measure intent.

[gikem]

So is it too early to predict that Drivers License may become the biggest hit of 2021 if the hype holds up beyond this week?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 10, 2021 9:11:23 GMT -5 gikem said:

So is it too early to predict that Drivers License may become the biggest hit of 2021 if the hype holds up beyond this week?

It's ten days into January lol. It is the biggest hit of the year so far by virtue of having the most streams in a single day but again, it's only January 10

[g8erboi]

It’s definitely too early to predict that "drivers license" will be the biggest hit of the year, but it wouldn’t be too far-fetched to think it could at least end up somewhere in the top 10 on the year-end list. I know it literally just came out a couple days ago, but I have a REALLY good feeling about this song. I think it’s going to have a run similar to "Someone You Loved" but with a stronger start.

[inverse]

Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 10, 2021 18:59:51 GMT -5 inverse said:

Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month

I hope you're ready to change it then

[atg]

We’re rolling with Driver’s License having a run similar to the box. Good Days could be the DSN or LIG of 2021 and Save Your Tears could end up in the top 10. Maybe What You Know Bout Love could end up in the top 20 and Mood/Positions are probably locked for top 15 already

[inverse]

Jan 10, 2021 22:02:08 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jan 10, 2021 18:59:51 GMT -5 inverse said:

Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month

I hope you're ready to change it then

If it misses will you change to 6ix9ine

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 10, 2021 23:19:13 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jan 10, 2021 22:02:08 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I hope you're ready to change it then

If it misses will you change to 6ix9ine

Sure.

If it miss, I change to 6ix9ine for a month

If it makes it, you just to Lil Pump for a month

[mikerivera]

Jan 10, 2021 18:59:51 GMT -5 inverse said:

Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month

I will literally stream this song on repeat while I sleep every night for the next six months just to make this happen

[Deleted]

I sure hope this boring ass drivers license blows over as fast as the #1 debut hits of last year did cause I don't get the hype

[jthentic]

Jan 11, 2021 1:09:09 GMT -5 @mirza said:

I sure hope this boring ass drivers license blows over as fast as the #1 debut hits of last year did cause I don't get the hype

Agreed, just listened it to see what's the hype abt, man it's boring & not catchy at all. Don't think it'll stick in the charts long

[sirskimask]

Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 8 (January 9, 2021)

Locked
Mood
All I Want For Christmas Is You **LOCKED THIS WEEK**

Very Likely
Blinding Lights*
Go Crazy
Laugh Now Cry Later
I Hope
For The Night

Likely
Dynamite

Possible
ROCKSTAR*
Savage Love*
More Than My Hometown*

Unlikely
Before You Go*
WHATS POPPIN*
WAP

Very Unlikely
Watermelon Sugar*

NOTE:Asterisk indicates returning entry.
OUT:None.



DISCUSSION: (I'll do this later cuz I'm about to sleep, just needed to get this post out before the next chart comes out

[liam1396]

If Blinding Lights were to male the 2021 year end,how high will it be on the list? I only ask because it's been around for over a year now and while it has had an okay run so far, it hasn't been an amazing one either . Even with it returning to the charts at number 3, i can't see it lasting much longer

[jab625246]

Jan 11, 2021 9:22:17 GMT -5 liam1396 said:

If Blinding Lights were to male the 2021 year end,how high will it be on the list? I only ask because it's been around for over a year now and while it has had an okay run so far, it hasn't been an amazing one either . Even with it returning to the charts at number 3, i can't see it lasting much longer

I have a slight feeling that Blinding Lights could land in the top 10 on the Year-End if not the top 20. It's chart run could be similar to How Do I Live by LeAnn Rimes if you know what I mean.

[Groovy]

I hope Driver's License becomes a big hit shuts all of y'all up.

[Groovy]

Jan 6, 2021 9:30:55 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Let me add and remove some songs that I believe will make the year end

Added

Anyone- It had good sales and streaming and it might get a radio run. 

Good Days- It's becoming a streaming powerhouse and can expect it in the top 10. 

willow- The streaming is pretty good and it has radio. 

Cry Baby- It might overtake Body in streaming if it didn't already. 


Possibly

Afterglow- Who's know what this song? It's streaming is not good, the sales are falling off but the radio can possibly keep it alive. 

The Good Ones- There may be a world where Gabby Barrett has two big radio hits. It also has solid sales. 

Removed

Heather- Was expecting it to come back sooner or later but it still hasn't. 

Dicked Down in Dallas- Grossly overestimated its longevity, its entire run collapsed. 

I might remove Heather in the future from the removed list and put it up to possibly since it might make a comeback and it's gaining on streaming.