2021 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 9)

[Deleted]

I know I'm a bit late to the party, but I predict that Driver's License will be the Year-End #1.

[gikem]

Jan 17, 2021 9:25:39 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Jan 16, 2021 11:34:06 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Here we go with some more songs that I think will make the year-end list this year

driver's license- It's already projected to have two weeks at 1, it's a streaming monster, the sales are good and the radio is already on board. 

Good Days- Another streaming powerhouse and it could get to 1 but I don't know how far it'll go without a radio run. 

Anyone- Can we please stop with the Bieber hits, I will admit this is his better one so far but still. 

Afterglow- This song underperformed on streaming for Ed's standards but it's still rising on radio. 

I forgot about Better Together which has a good radio run as well as I Should Probably Go To Bed. 

ISPGTB is hitting its peak this week and will be rotated out very soon. I don’t think it’ll make it.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 10, 2021 18:59:51 GMT -5 inverse said:

Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month

Jan 17, 2021 15:13:49 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

I know I'm a bit late to the party, but I predict that Driver's License will be the Year-End #1.

[sirskimask]

Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 9 (January 16, 2021)

Locked
Mood
All I Want For Christmas Is You

Very Likely
Blinding Lights
Go Crazy
Laugh Now Cry Later
I Hope
For The Night

Likely
Dynamite

Possible
Before You Go
ROCKSTAR
More Than My Hometown
Savage Love

Unlikely
WHATS POPPIN
WAP

Very Unlikely
Watermelon Sugar

OUT: None.

DISCUSSION:
Not much to really say this week, no dropouts or significant changes, the only main thing being that "Before You Go" has been bumped up from Unlikely to Possible due to gains on the Hot 100. It does only have another 7 weeks to go before hitting super recurrency though, so its odds will depend mainly on whether or not it can stay around the top 25 or not. In other news, "Laugh Now Cry Later" and "I Hope" are on the verge of locking and will probably secure their spots as repeats next week, if not the week after. Speaking of which, where's the album at Mr. Lover Boy? Only two weeks left of the month in which you said it was due to drop, better hurry up and get on it.

[nathanalbright]

Battle of the opposing hot takes, I see.

[After Minutes]

It is way to early to guess if Driver's license will have any amount of longevity, since it may very well either still be at #1 come march, or out of the top 20 completely at that point. I'll be cautious and while I do think that it should have decent longevity in the top 10, I'm content with saying that it'll end up in the year-end top 20 for now. That may change in the future, but there is absolutely nothing indicating that either extreme scenario will happen - I think that it'll stay on top for 3-4 weeks in total, and then spend something like 10 more weeks in the top ten, which should give it, in my opinion, a position in the 6-15 area, but, as I said, that may all very well change.

[joshtheking]

Jan 18, 2021 11:28:21 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

It is way to early to guess if Driver's license will have any amount of longevity, since it may very well either still be at #1 come march, or out of the top 20 completely at that point. I'll be cautious and while I do think that it should have decent longevity in the top 10, I'm content with saying that it'll end up in the year-end top 20 for now. That may change in the future, but there is absolutely nothing indicating that either extreme scenario will happen - I think that it'll stay on top for 3-4 weeks in total, and then spend something like 10 more weeks in the top ten, which should give it, in my opinion, a position in the 6-15 area, but, as I said, that may all very well change.

yes there's no way of knowing where it'll end up but there's nothing wrong with making early predictions. I think it'll be #1 but it's not like I'm saying that for definite or anything

[inverse]

Jan 17, 2021 22:12:53 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jan 10, 2021 18:59:51 GMT -5 inverse said:

Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month

Jan 17, 2021 15:13:49 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

I know I'm a bit late to the party, but I predict that Driver's License will be the Year-End #1.

@gabingston would you be willing to bet on it being #1 though 

[Deleted]

Jan 18, 2021 21:42:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jan 17, 2021 22:12:53 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

@gabingston would you be willing to bet on it being #1 though 

I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1.

[gikem]

Jan 18, 2021 22:24:50 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Jan 18, 2021 21:42:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

@gabingston would you be willing to bet on it being #1 though 

I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1.

Only thing on the horizon that I think will challenge for that title will be Drake's next single, whenever it drops.

[inverse]

Jan 18, 2021 22:24:50 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

Jan 18, 2021 21:42:03 GMT -5 inverse said:

@gabingston would you be willing to bet on it being #1 though 

I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1.

No not actual money that's lame but willing to bet the prospect of being forced to have a Sam Hunt Body Like A Backroad pfp for a month?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 19, 2021 3:40:25 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jan 18, 2021 22:24:50 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1.

No not actual money that's lame but willing to bet the prospect of being forced to have a Sam Hunt Body Like A Backroad pfp for a month?

I'm ready to see you have a Lil PUMP I Love it pop for a month 

[dremolus - solarpunk]

This actually might be higher considering there was a recalibration favoring streams  

[Deleted]

Jan 19, 2021 3:40:25 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jan 18, 2021 22:24:50 GMT -5 @gabingston said:

I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1.

No not actual money that's lame but willing to bet the prospect of being forced to have a Sam Hunt Body Like A Backroad pfp for a month?

Joke's on you, I don't mind that song. As for the bet, I'll think about it. 
EDIT: Whatever, I'll do the bet. If I lose, my profile picture will become a picture of Sam Hunt for a month.

[nathanalbright]

Jan 19, 2021 4:10:11 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jan 19, 2021 3:40:25 GMT -5 inverse said:

No not actual money that's lame but willing to bet the prospect of being forced to have a Sam Hunt Body Like A Backroad pfp for a month?

I'm ready to see you have a Lil PUMP I Love it pop for a month 

It looks like it would take only 3 or 4 weeks on the chart for DL to clinch a YE spot, so that Lil Pump avatar looks pretty likely at this point.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

It's crazy that with Monster flopping on radio, Shawn really won't have any hits on this album

[PositivityMaster48]

2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 10/52)
(01/23/2021)
Locked This Week: Positions
Locked Next Week: Holy, Laugh Now Cry Later
Notes: Driver’s License debuts at #55 on the YE list due to the strong amount of points it got this week.
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 28,670
2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 22,130
===LOCKED CUTOFF (20,000 POINTS)===
3 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 19,110
4 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 18,540
5 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 18,470
6 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 18,230
7 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 17,560
8 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 17,310
9 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 16,620
10 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 16,590
11 “Dynamite” BTS 16,450
12 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 16,100
13 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 16,020
14 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 15,590
15 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 14,880
16 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 14,860
17 “Bang!” AJR 14,470
18 “34+35” Ariana Grande 13,870
19 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 13,430
20 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 12,510
21 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 12,430
22 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 12,050
23 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 11,860
24 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 11,330
25 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 11,250
26 “Better Together” Luke Combs 10,990
27 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 10,700
28 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 10,530
29 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 10,510
30 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 10,220
31 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 10,010
32 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 9,980
33 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 9,780
34 “Whoopty” CJ 9,770
35 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590
36 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 9,400
37 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 9,390
38 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 9,110
39 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 8,880
40 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 8,830
41 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 8,820
42 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 8,760
43 “Last Christmas” Wham! 8,690
44 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 8,680
45 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 8,650
46 “Willow” Taylor Swift 8,600
47 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 8,470
48 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 8,040
49 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 7,610
50 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 7,480
51 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 7,320
52 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,160
53 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 7,010
54 “Good Time” Niko Moon 6,980
55 “Driver’s License” Olivia Roderigo 6,960
56 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 6,930
57 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 6,830
58 “Champagne Night” Lady A 6,630
59 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 6,590
60 “On Me” Lil Baby 6,370
61 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 6,090
62 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 6,060
63 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 6,050
64 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 5,690
65 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,690
66 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 5,600
67 “Golden” Harry Styles 5,510
68 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400
69 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 5,090
70 “Took Her To The O” King Von 5,080
71 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930
72 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 4,900
73 “Said Sum” Moneybagg Yo 4,860
74 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 4,780
75 “Without You” The Kid Laroi 4,690
76 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 4,480
77 “Afterglow” Ed Sheeran 4,200
78 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 4,060
79 “Bichota” Karol G 4,000
80 “pov” Ariana Grande 3,950
81 “Good Days” SZA 3,840
82 “Happy Does” Kenny Chesney 3,450
83 “One Of Them Girls” Lee Brice 3,370
84 “One Beer” Hardy ft. Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson 3,330
85 “Anyone” Justin Bieber 3,290
86 “Don’t Stop” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug 3,290
87 “Take You Dancing” Jason Derulo 3,030
88 “Beers And Sunshine” Darius Rucker 2,950
89 “Martin & Gina” Polo G 2,940
90 “You’re Mines Still” Yung Bleu ft. Drake 2,850
91 “Save Your Tears” The Weeknd 2,790
92 “Come & Go” Juice WRLD ft. Marshmello 2,770
93 “Still Goin Down” Morgan Wallen 2,610
94 “Champagne Problems” Taylor Swift 2,350
95 “Still Trappin” Lil Durk ft. King Von 2,270
96 “Heather” Conan Gray 2,220
97 “La Noche De Anoche” Bad Bunny and Rosalia 2,210
98 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170
99 “Got What I Got” Jason Aldean 2,060
100 “Tequila Shots” Kid Cudi 1,990

[joshtheking]

Jan 20, 2021 8:10:53 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

It's crazy that with Monster flopping on radio, Shawn really won't have any hits on this album

Why is it always when popular artists start getting good they stop getting hits as well? Sigh

[mikerivera]

2021 Hot 100 Year-End Predictions: Week 10 (credit: TOTC)

•"Go Crazy", "Blinding Lights", "Lemonade", and "Dynamite" pass the projected #100 cutoff.
•"Holy" becomes the 3rd biggest hit of 2021, and "Laugh Now Cry Later" the 4th.
•"Positions" is the 2nd song to cross 2,000 points. 

[rockgolf]

Delayed posting because I spent too much time watching the Inauguration. Some things are more important than the Hot 100. No, really!

Anyhow for the chart dated Jan 23, 2021 here's where I've got songs listed for the year-end top 100. (Based strictly on weekly chart position, not points, so Driver's License isn't as high as it should be. It'll catch up.)

I know people are already projecting Driver's License will be the #1 song of the year. I expect it to battle Mood for that honor, but Mood has a 9 week head start and both songs are likely to be on the chart for most of the year. It certainly is an early candidate to be the #1 song on my "complete" list, where songs are only listed in the year where they peak.

[inverse]

Bittersweet fact Midnight Sky with its last week here officially had more points in its chart run than Walk Em Down now, coulda actually made the year end list if it was timed properly

[joshtheking]

Jan 21, 2021 16:41:36 GMT -5 inverse said:

Bittersweet fact Midnight Sky with its last week here officially had more points in its chart run than Walk Em Down now, coulda actually made the year end list if it was timed properly

So as I expected, it got caught between years. Sad.

[lifeofaguardian]

Week 10 - Date 23-01-2020

A little late this week because I'm busy being obsessed over the Sims 2, here are this week's predictions! I'm going to make things a bit less wordy since I now have an actual picture for the current tally.

Current Tally (all songs over 125.000 points, 185.000 points to be considered locked):



Songs Locked this week:
Justin Bieber ft. Chance the Rapper - Holy

Songs Crossing the Cut-off this week:
Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later
Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth - I Hope
Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy
the Weeknd - Blinding Lights

Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:
1 week:
Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later
Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth - I Hope
Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy
the Weeknd - Blinding Lights

2 weeks:
Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don toliver & NAV - Lemonade
Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez - Dakiti
Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby - For the Night
Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby - Levitating
Olivia Rodrigo - Drivers License

3 weeks:
BTS - Dynamite
Billie Eilish - therefore I Am
Ava Max - Kings & Queens
AJR - Bang!
Ariana Grande - 34+35

4 weeks:
Justin Bieber & benny blanco - Lonely

5 weeks:
Megan thee Stallion - Body

Crossing cutoff in 5 weeks:
Pop Smoke - What You Know Bout Love
Luke Combs - Better together
Morgan Wallen - More Than My Hometown

Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:
None this week

Forecast (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):

[inverse]

It's weird that TOTC seems to be assuming a cutoff of 160,000. Last year it was 174,000 and in 2019 (which had a song that literally peaked at #49 and lasted 20 weeks) it was still 169,000. I think for now it's too early to assume the cutoff will be that low

[nathanalbright]

Jan 22, 2021 17:24:51 GMT -5 inverse said:

It's weird that TOTC seems to be assuming a cutoff of 160,000. Last year it was 174,000 and in 2019 (which had a song that literally peaked at #49 and lasted 20 weeks) it was still 169,000. I think for now it's too early to assume the cutoff will be that low

I think the assumption is being made because the points for everything except #1 are so low and it is apparently assumed that they will remain low throughout the rest of this year.  If this changes, I suspect that the assumed cutoff will increase accordingly, with a benefit to those songs that peak later in the year in the reverse of the way that 2020's chart points benefitted songs that peaked early in the year or held on from 2019.

[gikem]

Jan 23, 2021 2:45:47 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Jan 22, 2021 17:24:51 GMT -5 inverse said:

It's weird that TOTC seems to be assuming a cutoff of 160,000. Last year it was 174,000 and in 2019 (which had a song that literally peaked at #49 and lasted 20 weeks) it was still 169,000. I think for now it's too early to assume the cutoff will be that low

I think the assumption is being made because the points for everything except #1 are so low and it is apparently assumed that they will remain low throughout the rest of this year.  If this changes, I suspect that the assumed cutoff will increase accordingly, with a benefit to those songs that peak later in the year in the reverse of the way that 2020's chart points benefitted songs that peaked early in the year or held on from 2019.

And if the cutoff does strengthen later in the year, this would not be a great sign for songs that have already dropped out near the current cutoff (RATCT) or songs still charting that are expected to drop out around that area (Kings & Queens, Dynamite, etc.).

[sirskimask]

Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 10 (January 23, 2021)

Locked
Mood
All I Want For Christmas Is You
Laugh Now Cry Later **LOCKED THIS WEEK**
I Hope **LOCKED THIS WEEK**
Go Crazy **LOCKED THIS WEEK**

Very Likely
Blinding Lights
For The Night

Likely
Dynamite

Possible
More Than My Hometown
Before You Go
ROCKSTAR

Unlikely
WHATS POPPIN
Savage Love

Very Unlikely
WAP

OUT: Watermelon Sugar (will not repeat)

DISCUSSION:
Much more active than last week, with three songs locking their spot as repeats for the 2021 YE list, these being "Laugh Now Cry Later", "I Hope", and "Go Crazy". "Watermelon Sugar" is off the charts for a second (and presumably final) time and will most certainly not repeat; don't believe anyone expected it in the first place though. Also, due to an unfortunate injury causing Certified Not-Dropping-This-Month Boy to delay his album, songs such as "More Than My Hometown", "Before You Go", and "ROCKSTAR" look to have a greater chance of repeating since there won't be a sudden spawn of 22 tracks entering the top 50 to kick them out.

[nathanalbright]

It's curious to see if the likelihood remains constant throughout the year, or if the release of Mid-Tier Lover Boy and other albums later in the year increases the predicted YE levels above 160k points. Still, having ten or so YE repeats would be pretty interesting to see.

[gikem]

Jan 25, 2021 3:57:58 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

It's curious to see if the likelihood remains constant throughout the year, or if the release of Mid-Tier Lover Boy and other albums later in the year increases the predicted YE levels above 160k points. Still, having ten or so YE repeats would be pretty interesting to see.

As of now, I think we will have between 8 and 10 YE repeats this year. We already know 7 that are all but guaranteed to make it. Dynamite is on the edge and dropping out soon, but right now I think it’ll scrape on. MTMH and ROCKSTAR are the two wild cards; their chances will really depend on how soon they drop out. If they survive the month of February and the first half of March, they will likely be good for the YE.

As for the other 2020 hits still charting, they’ll either be below the top 50 soon or reaching the 52-week threshold soon. I don’t anticipate any of them netting the points needed to make it.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I think ROCKSTAR will repeat. It'll linger around the Top 40 for a bit, similar to Truth Hurts or Senorita