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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2021 15:13:49 GMT -5
I know I'm a bit late to the party, but I predict that Driver's License will be the Year-End #1.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jan 17, 2021 18:37:00 GMT -5
Here we go with some more songs that I think will make the year-end list this year driver's license- It's already projected to have two weeks at 1, it's a streaming monster, the sales are good and the radio is already on board. Good Days- Another streaming powerhouse and it could get to 1 but I don't know how far it'll go without a radio run. Anyone- Can we please stop with the Bieber hits, I will admit this is his better one so far but still. Afterglow- This song underperformed on streaming for Ed's standards but it's still rising on radio. I forgot about Better Together which has a good radio run as well as I Should Probably Go To Bed. ISPGTB is hitting its peak this week and will be rotated out very soon. I don’t think it’ll make it.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Jan 17, 2021 22:12:53 GMT -5
Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month I know I'm a bit late to the party, but I predict that Driver's License will be the Year-End #1.
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Jan 18, 2021 1:43:10 GMT -5
Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 9 (January 16, 2021)
Locked Mood All I Want For Christmas Is You
Very Likely Blinding Lights Go Crazy Laugh Now Cry Later I Hope For The Night
Likely Dynamite
Possible Before You Go ROCKSTAR More Than My Hometown Savage Love
Unlikely WHATS POPPIN WAP
Very Unlikely Watermelon Sugar
OUT: None.
DISCUSSION: Not much to really say this week, no dropouts or significant changes, the only main thing being that "Before You Go" has been bumped up from Unlikely to Possible due to gains on the Hot 100. It does only have another 7 weeks to go before hitting super recurrency though, so its odds will depend mainly on whether or not it can stay around the top 25 or not. In other news, "Laugh Now Cry Later" and "I Hope" are on the verge of locking and will probably secure their spots as repeats next week, if not the week after. Speaking of which, where's the album at Mr. Lover Boy? Only two weeks left of the month in which you said it was due to drop, better hurry up and get on it.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 18, 2021 1:43:21 GMT -5
Battle of the opposing hot takes, I see.
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Post by After Minutes on Jan 18, 2021 11:28:21 GMT -5
It is way to early to guess if Driver's license will have any amount of longevity, since it may very well either still be at #1 come march, or out of the top 20 completely at that point. I'll be cautious and while I do think that it should have decent longevity in the top 10, I'm content with saying that it'll end up in the year-end top 20 for now. That may change in the future, but there is absolutely nothing indicating that either extreme scenario will happen - I think that it'll stay on top for 3-4 weeks in total, and then spend something like 10 more weeks in the top ten, which should give it, in my opinion, a position in the 6-15 area, but, as I said, that may all very well change.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jan 18, 2021 13:06:35 GMT -5
It is way to early to guess if Driver's license will have any amount of longevity, since it may very well either still be at #1 come march, or out of the top 20 completely at that point. I'll be cautious and while I do think that it should have decent longevity in the top 10, I'm content with saying that it'll end up in the year-end top 20 for now. That may change in the future, but there is absolutely nothing indicating that either extreme scenario will happen - I think that it'll stay on top for 3-4 weeks in total, and then spend something like 10 more weeks in the top ten, which should give it, in my opinion, a position in the 6-15 area, but, as I said, that may all very well change. yes there's no way of knowing where it'll end up but there's nothing wrong with making early predictions. I think it'll be #1 but it's not like I'm saying that for definite or anything
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jan 18, 2021 21:42:03 GMT -5
Theres simply no way Drivers Lisense actually makes the year end list y'all are crazy if it does I'll change my status to lil pump i love it for a month I know I'm a bit late to the party, but I predict that Driver's License will be the Year-End #1. @gabingston would you be willing to bet on it being #1 though
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2021 22:24:50 GMT -5
@gabingston would you be willing to bet on it being #1 though I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jan 18, 2021 22:50:50 GMT -5
@gabingston would you be willing to bet on it being #1 though I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1. Only thing on the horizon that I think will challenge for that title will be Drake's next single, whenever it drops.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jan 19, 2021 3:40:25 GMT -5
@gabingston would you be willing to bet on it being #1 though I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1. No not actual money that's lame but willing to bet the prospect of being forced to have a Sam Hunt Body Like A Backroad pfp for a month?
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Jan 19, 2021 4:10:11 GMT -5
I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1. No not actual money that's lame but willing to bet the prospect of being forced to have a Sam Hunt Body Like A Backroad pfp for a month? I'm ready to see you have a Lil PUMP I Love it pop for a month
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Jan 19, 2021 10:17:28 GMT -5
This actually might be higher considering there was a recalibration favoring streams
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2021 12:32:32 GMT -5
I probably wouldn't bet actual money, but considering that it's early in the chart year, the song's massive streaming and rapid growth on radio, I think it's the most likely candidate for Year-End #1. No not actual money that's lame but willing to bet the prospect of being forced to have a Sam Hunt Body Like A Backroad pfp for a month? Joke's on you, I don't mind that song. As for the bet, I'll think about it. EDIT: Whatever, I'll do the bet. If I lose, my profile picture will become a picture of Sam Hunt for a month.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 19, 2021 21:13:46 GMT -5
No not actual money that's lame but willing to bet the prospect of being forced to have a Sam Hunt Body Like A Backroad pfp for a month? I'm ready to see you have a Lil PUMP I Love it pop for a month It looks like it would take only 3 or 4 weeks on the chart for DL to clinch a YE spot, so that Lil Pump avatar looks pretty likely at this point.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Jan 20, 2021 8:10:53 GMT -5
It's crazy that with Monster flopping on radio, Shawn really won't have any hits on this album
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Jan 20, 2021 10:38:12 GMT -5
2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 10/52) (01/23/2021) Locked This Week: Positions Locked Next Week: Holy, Laugh Now Cry Later Notes: Driver’s License debuts at #55 on the YE list due to the strong amount of points it got this week. 1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 28,670 2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 22,130 ===LOCKED CUTOFF (20,000 POINTS)=== 3 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 19,110 4 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 18,540 5 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 18,470 6 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 18,230 7 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 17,560 8 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 17,310 9 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 16,620 10 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 16,590 11 “Dynamite” BTS 16,450 12 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 16,100 13 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 16,020 14 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 15,590 15 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 14,880 16 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 14,860 17 “Bang!” AJR 14,470 18 “34+35” Ariana Grande 13,870 19 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 13,430 20 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 12,510 21 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 12,430 22 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 12,050 23 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 11,860 24 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 11,330 25 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 11,250 26 “Better Together” Luke Combs 10,990 27 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 10,700 28 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 10,530 29 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 10,510 30 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 10,220 31 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 10,010 32 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 9,980 33 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 9,780 34 “Whoopty” CJ 9,770 35 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590 36 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 9,400 37 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 9,390 38 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 9,110 39 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 8,880 40 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 8,830 41 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 8,820 42 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 8,760 43 “Last Christmas” Wham! 8,690 44 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 8,680 45 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 8,650 46 “Willow” Taylor Swift 8,600 47 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 8,470 48 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 8,040 49 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 7,610 50 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 7,480 51 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 7,320 52 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,160 53 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 7,010 54 “Good Time” Niko Moon 6,980 55 “Driver’s License” Olivia Roderigo 6,960 56 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 6,930 57 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 6,830 58 “Champagne Night” Lady A 6,630 59 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 6,590 60 “On Me” Lil Baby 6,370 61 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 6,090 62 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 6,060 63 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 6,050 64 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 5,690 65 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,690 66 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 5,600 67 “Golden” Harry Styles 5,510 68 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400 69 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 5,090 70 “Took Her To The O” King Von 5,080 71 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930 72 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 4,900 73 “Said Sum” Moneybagg Yo 4,860 74 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 4,780 75 “Without You” The Kid Laroi 4,690 76 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 4,480 77 “Afterglow” Ed Sheeran 4,200 78 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 4,060 79 “Bichota” Karol G 4,000 80 “pov” Ariana Grande 3,950 81 “Good Days” SZA 3,840 82 “Happy Does” Kenny Chesney 3,450 83 “One Of Them Girls” Lee Brice 3,370 84 “One Beer” Hardy ft. Lauren Alaina & Devin Dawson 3,330 85 “Anyone” Justin Bieber 3,290 86 “Don’t Stop” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Young Thug 3,290 87 “Take You Dancing” Jason Derulo 3,030 88 “Beers And Sunshine” Darius Rucker 2,950 89 “Martin & Gina” Polo G 2,940 90 “You’re Mines Still” Yung Bleu ft. Drake 2,850 91 “Save Your Tears” The Weeknd 2,790 92 “Come & Go” Juice WRLD ft. Marshmello 2,770 93 “Still Goin Down” Morgan Wallen 2,610 94 “Champagne Problems” Taylor Swift 2,350 95 “Still Trappin” Lil Durk ft. King Von 2,270 96 “Heather” Conan Gray 2,220 97 “La Noche De Anoche” Bad Bunny and Rosalia 2,210 98 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170 99 “Got What I Got” Jason Aldean 2,060 100 “Tequila Shots” Kid Cudi 1,990
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jan 20, 2021 10:49:57 GMT -5
It's crazy that with Monster flopping on radio, Shawn really won't have any hits on this album Why is it always when popular artists start getting good they stop getting hits as well? Sigh
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jan 21, 2021 11:08:44 GMT -5
2021 Hot 100 Year-End Predictions: Week 10 (credit: TOTC) •"Go Crazy", "Blinding Lights", "Lemonade", and "Dynamite" pass the projected #100 cutoff. •"Holy" becomes the 3rd biggest hit of 2021, and "Laugh Now Cry Later" the 4th. •"Positions" is the 2nd song to cross 2,000 points.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jan 21, 2021 15:31:13 GMT -5
Delayed posting because I spent too much time watching the Inauguration. Some things are more important than the Hot 100. No, really! Anyhow for the chart dated Jan 23, 2021 here's where I've got songs listed for the year-end top 100. (Based strictly on weekly chart position, not points, so Driver's License isn't as high as it should be. It'll catch up.)
I know people are already projecting Driver's License will be the #1 song of the year. I expect it to battle Mood for that honor, but Mood has a 9 week head start and both songs are likely to be on the chart for most of the year. It certainly is an early candidate to be the #1 song on my "complete" list, where songs are only listed in the year where they peak.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jan 21, 2021 16:41:36 GMT -5
Bittersweet fact Midnight Sky with its last week here officially had more points in its chart run than Walk Em Down now, coulda actually made the year end list if it was timed properly
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Jan 22, 2021 3:59:17 GMT -5
Bittersweet fact Midnight Sky with its last week here officially had more points in its chart run than Walk Em Down now, coulda actually made the year end list if it was timed properly So as I expected, it got caught between years. Sad.
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Jan 22, 2021 4:01:49 GMT -5
Week 10 - Date 23-01-2020A little late this week because I'm busy being obsessed over the Sims 2, here are this week's predictions! I'm going to make things a bit less wordy since I now have an actual picture for the current tally. Current Tally (all songs over 125.000 points, 185.000 points to be considered locked):Songs Locked this week:Justin Bieber ft. Chance the Rapper - Holy Songs Crossing the Cut-off this week:Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth - I Hope Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy the Weeknd - Blinding Lights Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:1 week:Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth - I Hope Chris Brown & Young Thug - Go Crazy the Weeknd - Blinding Lights 2 weeks:Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don toliver & NAV - Lemonade Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez - Dakiti Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby - For the Night Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby - Levitating Olivia Rodrigo - Drivers License 3 weeks:BTS - Dynamite Billie Eilish - therefore I Am Ava Max - Kings & Queens AJR - Bang! Ariana Grande - 34+35 4 weeks:Justin Bieber & benny blanco - Lonely 5 weeks:Megan thee Stallion - Body Crossing cutoff in 5 weeks:Pop Smoke - What You Know Bout Love Luke Combs - Better together Morgan Wallen - More Than My Hometown Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:None this week Forecast (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jan 22, 2021 17:24:51 GMT -5
It's weird that TOTC seems to be assuming a cutoff of 160,000. Last year it was 174,000 and in 2019 (which had a song that literally peaked at #49 and lasted 20 weeks) it was still 169,000. I think for now it's too early to assume the cutoff will be that low
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 23, 2021 2:45:47 GMT -5
It's weird that TOTC seems to be assuming a cutoff of 160,000. Last year it was 174,000 and in 2019 (which had a song that literally peaked at #49 and lasted 20 weeks) it was still 169,000. I think for now it's too early to assume the cutoff will be that low I think the assumption is being made because the points for everything except #1 are so low and it is apparently assumed that they will remain low throughout the rest of this year. If this changes, I suspect that the assumed cutoff will increase accordingly, with a benefit to those songs that peak later in the year in the reverse of the way that 2020's chart points benefitted songs that peaked early in the year or held on from 2019.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jan 23, 2021 7:53:24 GMT -5
It's weird that TOTC seems to be assuming a cutoff of 160,000. Last year it was 174,000 and in 2019 (which had a song that literally peaked at #49 and lasted 20 weeks) it was still 169,000. I think for now it's too early to assume the cutoff will be that low I think the assumption is being made because the points for everything except #1 are so low and it is apparently assumed that they will remain low throughout the rest of this year. If this changes, I suspect that the assumed cutoff will increase accordingly, with a benefit to those songs that peak later in the year in the reverse of the way that 2020's chart points benefitted songs that peaked early in the year or held on from 2019. And if the cutoff does strengthen later in the year, this would not be a great sign for songs that have already dropped out near the current cutoff (RATCT) or songs still charting that are expected to drop out around that area (Kings & Queens, Dynamite, etc.).
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Jan 25, 2021 3:16:41 GMT -5
Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 10 (January 23, 2021)
Locked Mood All I Want For Christmas Is You Laugh Now Cry Later **LOCKED THIS WEEK** I Hope **LOCKED THIS WEEK** Go Crazy **LOCKED THIS WEEK**
Very Likely Blinding Lights For The Night
Likely Dynamite
Possible More Than My Hometown Before You Go ROCKSTAR
Unlikely WHATS POPPIN Savage Love
Very Unlikely WAP
OUT: Watermelon Sugar (will not repeat)
DISCUSSION: Much more active than last week, with three songs locking their spot as repeats for the 2021 YE list, these being "Laugh Now Cry Later", "I Hope", and "Go Crazy". "Watermelon Sugar" is off the charts for a second (and presumably final) time and will most certainly not repeat; don't believe anyone expected it in the first place though. Also, due to an unfortunate injury causing Certified Not-Dropping-This-Month Boy to delay his album, songs such as "More Than My Hometown", "Before You Go", and "ROCKSTAR" look to have a greater chance of repeating since there won't be a sudden spawn of 22 tracks entering the top 50 to kick them out.
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Post by nathanalbright on Jan 25, 2021 3:57:58 GMT -5
It's curious to see if the likelihood remains constant throughout the year, or if the release of Mid-Tier Lover Boy and other albums later in the year increases the predicted YE levels above 160k points. Still, having ten or so YE repeats would be pretty interesting to see.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jan 25, 2021 8:25:27 GMT -5
It's curious to see if the likelihood remains constant throughout the year, or if the release of Mid-Tier Lover Boy and other albums later in the year increases the predicted YE levels above 160k points. Still, having ten or so YE repeats would be pretty interesting to see. As of now, I think we will have between 8 and 10 YE repeats this year. We already know 7 that are all but guaranteed to make it. Dynamite is on the edge and dropping out soon, but right now I think it’ll scrape on. MTMH and ROCKSTAR are the two wild cards; their chances will really depend on how soon they drop out. If they survive the month of February and the first half of March, they will likely be good for the YE. As for the other 2020 hits still charting, they’ll either be below the top 50 soon or reaching the 52-week threshold soon. I don’t anticipate any of them netting the points needed to make it.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Jan 25, 2021 8:54:46 GMT -5
I think ROCKSTAR will repeat. It'll linger around the Top 40 for a bit, similar to Truth Hurts or Senorita
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