gikem
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Post by gikem on Jan 31, 2021 9:54:00 GMT -5
How are Year-End prospects looking for "Diamonds" and "HOLIDAY"? I know the former has been nearly entirely carried by radio, and it's currently on its way out. Meanwhile, the latter is no longer on radio estimates, but it has been pretty stable in the 40s region on Spotify. Both songs deserved better, but I still hope at least one of them manages to stick around long enough. Diamonds is on its 18th week with fading radio and is expected to dip below the top 50 soon (EDIT: not this week, apparently), so I sadly donβt expect it to make the YE. At first I thought Holiday was in a similar boat, but with 10 weeks to go and a relatively consistent run thus far, it could sneak on if it stays consistent for the remainder of its run.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jan 31, 2021 13:02:32 GMT -5
What chance does Starting Over have to make the YE? It deserves to be make it.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jan 31, 2021 16:34:17 GMT -5
Starting Over - needs 7 more weeks. Should be possible if it can just run like Chasin You but it's unlikely Diamonds - needs at least 7 probably 8 more weeks. It's at 47 so I think there's no hope of that Holiday - needs about 75,000 more points. It's got at most 10 more weeks left and already it's below 7,500/week. It will miss
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jan 31, 2021 16:38:42 GMT -5
Starting Over - needs 7 more weeks. Should be possible if it can just run like Chasin You but it's unlikely SO's "peak week" on country radio isn't until mid-March, and given how highly it's charting several weeks away from that peak, I think it'll make it.
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Feb 1, 2021 6:55:23 GMT -5
Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 11 (January 30, 2021)
Locked Mood All I Want For Christmas Is You Laugh Now Cry Later I Hope Go Crazy Blinding Lights **LOCKED THIS WEEK**
Very Likely For The Night
Likely Dynamite
Possible More Than My Hometown Before You Go ROCKSTAR
Unlikely WHATS POPPIN
Very Unlikely Savage Love WAP
OUT: None.
DISCUSSION: Handsome Squidward's smash hit "Blinding Lights", the number one song of last year, has secured its spot as a repeat, which is extremely impressive considering it first began charting way back in December 2019. Just goes to show you how massive of a hit it truly is. In other news, Savage Love has been downgraded to very unlikely being that it's now well on its way out (good).
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Feb 1, 2021 7:03:09 GMT -5
discord.gg/talkofthecharts u know what to do
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Feb 2, 2021 7:38:43 GMT -5
Uhhh why is Savage Love staying on the charts at 51?
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liam1396
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Post by liam1396 on Feb 2, 2021 11:52:55 GMT -5
Is the 34+35 remix still being counted. I know Billboard stopped crediting the remix but is that because the original is the more popular version or because they forgot to credit the remix
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liam1396
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Post by liam1396 on Feb 2, 2021 11:56:27 GMT -5
Uhhh why is Savage Love staying on the charts at 51? it is basically a filler slot. Its on its way out but it has just enough sales,streaming and airplay to fill in the gaps. don't worry it'll be gone next week
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Feb 2, 2021 11:56:40 GMT -5
Is the 34+35 remix still being counted. I know Billboard stopped crediting the remix but is that because the original is the more popular version or because they forgot to credit the remix It was credited for that one week only, both Doja & Megan will have it count on their chart histories but for now on it'll just be credited to Ariana because the original is the more popular version.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Feb 2, 2021 13:05:58 GMT -5
Kings & Queens might get caught in between years, I can see it going recurrent in a few weeks.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Feb 2, 2021 13:19:02 GMT -5
^Actually. It looks like it might have already be close to the borderline and probably only needs one more week to secure its place. It depends a lot on what cutoff is used.
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 2, 2021 13:22:06 GMT -5
Kings & Queens might get caught in between years, I can see it going recurrent in a few weeks. I think that even if it goes recurrent in a few weeks that it will already have clinched a YE slot by then.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Feb 2, 2021 14:21:01 GMT -5
It's only February and already movement on the year-end is slowing to a crawl. I'm sure any track that already has 1700 points will make the year-end top 100, but the turnover is so glacial I wouldn't be surprised if the cutoff were 1500 or lower. Here's my year-end chart estimates inclusive of the chart week dated Feb 6, 2021.
Driver's License ( or perhaps "driver's license". Gotta confirm the case) continues to leap and bound. Blinding Lights shows Methuselah-like endurance. I think it's going to hold or grow in the next 3 weeks, which makes overtaking The Twist for #1 on the all-time chart much less of a longshot. Tate McRae is finally in the top 30. Is she the first Canadian female since Allesia Cara to get that far?
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Feb 2, 2021 14:37:57 GMT -5
Welp, never mind.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Feb 2, 2021 14:39:53 GMT -5
2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 12/52) (2/6/2021) Lockedπ: I Hope, Go Crazy, Blinding Lights Locked Next Week: Levitating, Lemonade, For The Night Possible Locks: Dakiti, 34+35 Dropouts: WAP, Love You Like I Used To, I Should Probably Go To Bed Notes: Levitating makes the Top 10. 1 βMoodβ 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 33,960 2 βPositionsβ Ariana Grande 26,110 3 βHolyβ Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 22,760 4 βBlinding Lightsβ The Weeknd 21,640 5 βGo Crazyβ Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 21,460 6 βLaugh Now Cry Laterβ Drake ft. Lil Durk 21,230 7 βI Hopeβ Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 21,180 ===LOCKED CUTOFF (20,000 POINTS)=== 8 βLevitatingβ Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 19,630 9 βLemonadeβ Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 19,270 10 βFor The Nightβ Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 19,150 11 βDakitiβ Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 18,880 12 β34+35β Ariana Grande 18,600 13 βAll I Want For Christmas Is Youβ Mariah Carey 18,470 14 βDynamiteβ BTS 18,270 15 βTherefore I Amβ Billie Eilish 17,870 16 βBang!β AJR 17,730 17 βKings & Queensβ Ava Max 17,070 18 βRockinβ Around The Christmas Treeβ Brenda Lee 16,620 19 βDriverβs Licenseβ Olivia Rodrigo 16,570 20 βLonelyβ Justin Bieber & benny blanco 15,460 21 βBodyβ Megan Thee Stallion 15,280 22 βWhat You Know About Loveβ Pop Smoke 14,560 23 βBetter Togetherβ Luke Combs 13,920 24 βJingle Bell Rockβ Bobby Helms 13,430 25 βROCKSTARβ Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 13,280 26 βWAPβ Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 12,920 27 βMore Than My Hometownβ Morgan Wallen 12,870 28 βWhooptyβ CJ 12,630 29 βSavage Loveβ Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 12,240 30 βWHATβS POPPINβ Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 11,880 31 βItβs The Most Wonderful Time Of The Yearβ Andy Williams 11,250 32 βDiamondsβ Sam Smith 11,140 33 βStarting Overβ Chris Stapleton 11,130 34 βBefore You Goβ Lewis Capaldi 11,030 35 βYou Broke Me Firstβ Tate McRae 10,940 36 βWillowβ Taylor Swift 10,930 37 βHawaiβ Maluma ft. The Weeknd 10,700 38 βMonsterβ Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 10,390 39 βA Holly Jolly Christmasβ Burl Ives 10,220 40 βHOLIDAYβ Lil Nas X 10,190 41 βMy Exβs Best Friendβ Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 10,150 42 βBig, Big Plansβ Chris Lane 10,030 43 βFeliz Navidadβ Jose Feliciano 9,980 44 βForever After Allβ Luke Combs 9,960 45 β7 Summersβ Morgan Wallen 9,820 46 βLet It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590 47 βLove You Like I Used Toβ Russell Dickerson 9,490 48 βI Should Probably Go To Bedβ Dan + Shay 9,470 49 βThe Christmas Songβ Nat King Cole 9,390 50 βGood Timeβ Niko Moon 8,930 51 βMr. Right Nowβ 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 8,800 52 βThroat Baby (Go Baby)β BRS Kash 8,750 53 βLast Christmasβ Wham! 8,690 54 βOn Meβ Lil Baby 8,550 55 βTyler Herroβ Jack Harlow 8,250 56 βHole In The Bottleβ Kelsea Ballerini 7,940 57 βChampagne Nightβ Lady A 7,800 58 βUnderneath The Treeβ Kelly Clarkson 7,480 59 βPrisonerβ Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 7,220 60 βHappy Anywhereβ Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,160 61 βGood Daysβ SZA 7,110 62 βB.Sβ JhenΓ© Aiko ft. H.E.R 7,010 63 βHit Differentβ SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 6,780 64 βGoldenβ Harry Styles 6,760 65 βWatermelon Sugarβ Harry Styles 6,590 66 βSomebodyβs Problemβ Morgan Wallen 6,420 67 βCry Babyβ Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 6,400 68 βWithout Youβ The Kid Laroi 6,370 69 βAfterglowβ Ed Sheeran 6,130 70 βAinβt Always The Cowboyβ Jon Pardi 6,090 71 βPut Your Records Onβ Ritt Momney 6,030 72 βBack To The Streetsβ Saweetie ft. Jhene Aiko 5,710 73 βAnyoneβ Justin Bieber 5,700 74 βSo Doneβ The Kid Laroi 5,700 75 βLife Goes Onβ BTS 5,690 76 βSave Your Tearsβ The Weeknd 5,660 77 βMidnight Skyβ Miley Cyrus 5,600 78 βBe Like Thatβ Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400 79 βBichotaβ Karol G 5,100 80 βPretty Heartβ Parker McCollum 5,090 81 βTook Her To The Oβ King Von 5,080 82 βYouβre Mines Stillβ Yung Bleu ft. Drake 5,050 83 βHappy Doesβ Kenny Chesney 5,000 84 βily (i love you baby)β Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930 85 βWonderβ Shawn Mendes 4,900 86 βSaid Sumβ Moneybagg Yo 4,860 87 βBeers And Sunshineβ Darius Rucker 4,430 88 βTake You Dancingβ Jason Derulo 4,220 89 βWasted On Youβ Morgan Wallen 4,090 90 βDamageβ H.E.R 4,090 91 βpovβ Ariana Grande 3,950 92 βStill Goin Downβ Morgan Wallen 3,890 93 βWhatβs Your Country Songβ Thomas Rhett 3,840 94 βStill Trappinβ Lil Durk ft. King Von 3,490 95 βDown To Oneβ Luke Bryan 3,110 96 βSand In My Bootsβ Morgan Wallen 3,080 97 βJust The Wayβ Parmalee ft. Blanco Brown 3,020 98 βBack In Bloodβ Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk 2,930 99 βThe Good Onesβ Gabby Barrett 2,880 100 βBest Friendβ Saweetie ft. Doja Cat 2,820
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gs
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Post by gs on Feb 2, 2021 19:48:23 GMT -5
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π‘πππππ€
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Post by π‘πππππ€ on Feb 2, 2021 20:53:35 GMT -5
Looks like Rodrigo will be locked this week or next, woot woot
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 2, 2021 22:17:37 GMT -5
It does appear that by next Monday we will be seeing some Lil' Pump, yes.
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Post by waluigionascooter on Feb 3, 2021 0:10:08 GMT -5
Kings & Queens might get caught in between years, I can see it going recurrent in a few weeks. People said the same thing about Breathin' 2 years ago, and it ended up at #72. (2019 had a shockingly low cutoff but still)
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 3, 2021 2:04:11 GMT -5
An interesting question is if the covid pandemic goes away midway through the chart year whether or not the charts will strengthen back to the pre-panndemic days. If that happens the end of the year could be a lot stronger as opposed to last year where small early songs like Slide & Juicy made the year end list above comparatively higher charting songs.
If the charts are this weak throughout then RATCT might actually make the year end top 100 lol.
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 3, 2021 2:38:47 GMT -5
That, I think, is the question behind all of our chart estimates this year, seeing as how we are already close to a quarter through the chart year.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Feb 3, 2021 9:08:55 GMT -5
Well, looks like my prediction that Morgan Wallen would have at least 3 songs on the 2021 YE wonβt be coming true after all.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Feb 3, 2021 12:33:55 GMT -5
Lol, told u I would pin it
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Post by jedenpolska on Feb 3, 2021 13:06:08 GMT -5
Well, looks like my prediction that Morgan Wallen would have at least 3 songs on the 2021 YE wonβt be coming true after all. Why do you say that? It looks like More Than My Hometown and 7 Summers both have decent chances to make the YE and there's plenty of time in the year for another song off Dangerous to be released as a single and make it
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Feb 3, 2021 13:17:28 GMT -5
Well, looks like my prediction that Morgan Wallen would have at least 3 songs on the 2021 YE wonβt be coming true after all. Why do you say that? It looks like More Than My Hometown and 7 Summers both have decent chances to make the YE and there's plenty of time in the year for another song off Dangerous to be released as a single and make it MTMH and 7 Summers are his current radio-driven singles for which support got yanked today and both have been charting for over 20 weeks. If they dip below #50 before February is over, theyβre toast. No comment from me on whether heβll release another single from Dangerous.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2021 14:25:02 GMT -5
Well, looks like my prediction that Morgan Wallen would have at least 3 songs on the 2021 YE wonβt be coming true after all. Why do you say that? It looks like More Than My Hometown and 7 Summers both have decent chances to make the YE and there's plenty of time in the year for another song off Dangerous to be released as a single and make it It's for.. conduct-related reasons.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 3, 2021 14:54:51 GMT -5
7 Summers is still gaining & MTMH isn't falling all that fast
EDIT: Nevermind, the radio losses will be reflected on tomorrow's Kworb update
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smallbubble
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Post by smallbubble on Feb 3, 2021 21:40:30 GMT -5
Well, that means 7 summers would probably got caught between years as a consequence of that.
BTW, here are the rest of songs that I think would end up as songs caught between 2020~2021 chart year (based on @spicemapping 's list):
I should probably go to bed Happy Anywhere One beer Hawai Midnight sky (Really sad about this one, dunno why radio dropped this whilst it had the best callout...)
Whilst those songs might still get caught between years: My ex's best friend Starting over Better Together
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Post by kingscouser on Feb 3, 2021 22:05:52 GMT -5
Well, looks like my prediction that Morgan Wallen would have at least 3 songs on the 2021 YE wonβt be coming true after all. Yeah, I wonder how much his songs are gonna bleed due to being pulled from Radio and Spotify playlists.
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