M5
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Post by M5 on Feb 15, 2021 14:05:09 GMT -5
What's happening with Friday rn
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n13l5
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Post by n13l5 on Feb 16, 2021 6:24:45 GMT -5
What's happening with Friday rn She made a hyperpop remix
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2021 13:58:34 GMT -5
What's happening with Friday rn She made a hyperpop remix It's basically the original song on acid. Then again, Hyperpop in general is Pop music on acid.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 16, 2021 20:39:41 GMT -5
Not impossible for Rockstar to make it. It's #25 at the week 13 quarter way through mark which means that it could be already locked, as weird as it is to think of a 140,000 point cutoff. (For reference at this time last year Bandit was #25. It would go on to pick up two more low weeks and finish at 63.) If the cutoff is 140k and Rockstar picks up another week to hit 150k it could be totally safe
The only variable that could throw it off is if covid ends this year (fingers crossed) and the charts adjust back to their 2019 strength then songs at the end of the year could get points faster and make it over early hits with comparatively low chart runs.
It would also mean Rockin Around The Christmas Tree would be pretty safe lol & Jingle Bell Rock would be the new Christmas song to bridesmaid the YE
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Feb 16, 2021 21:22:02 GMT -5
Not impossible for Rockstar to make it. It's #25 at the week 13 quarter way through mark which means that it could be already locked, as weird as it is to think of a 140,000 point cutoff. (For reference at this time last year Bandit was #25. It would go on to pick up two more low weeks and finish at 63.) If the cutoff is 140k and Rockstar picks up another week to hit 150k it could be totally safe The only variable that could throw it off is if covid ends this year (fingers crossed) and the charts adjust back to their 2019 strength then songs at the end of the year could get points faster and make it over early hits with comparatively low chart runs. It would also mean Rockin Around The Christmas Tree would be pretty safe lol & Jingle Bell Rock would be the new Christmas song to bridesmaid the YE It's very possible for ROCKSTAR to sneak in, but I'd argue the main reason the cutoff seems that low right now is because there weren't a lot of big releases or viral songs quickly catching fire during the first quarter of the tracking year like we had last year. I can see that changing as we approach the summer months; April/May tends to be quite busy on the charts in terms of releases.
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𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤
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Post by 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 on Feb 16, 2021 21:34:05 GMT -5
Is there a possability that Friday charts again coming week? its doing pretty good on yt I don't think so and I hope it doesn't how DARE you
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2021 22:57:07 GMT -5
I don't think so and I hope it doesn't how DARE you
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Feb 17, 2021 10:05:58 GMT -5
Diamonds deserved so much better... Does anyone know if it would have made the 2020 year end if its full chart run counted?
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Feb 17, 2021 12:06:53 GMT -5
I was today years old when I found out that Before You Go is still charting.
Edit: It'll go recurrent soon just didn't know it was still charting.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Feb 17, 2021 16:08:08 GMT -5
I was today years old when I found out that Before You Go is still charting. Edit: It'll go recurrent soon just didn't know it was still charting. And it somehow gained 2 spots this week
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Feb 17, 2021 16:38:58 GMT -5
I was today years old when I found out that Before You Go is still charting. Edit: It'll go recurrent soon just didn't know it was still charting. And it somehow gained 2 spots this week Plot twist: It gains 7 spots in the next 2 weeks and ruins my prediction of it not repeating
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 17, 2021 16:45:44 GMT -5
Diamonds deserved so much better... Does anyone know if it would have made the 2020 year end if its full chart run counted? It would have barely missed 2020 but probably made 2021
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Feb 17, 2021 22:57:33 GMT -5
Big changes in my personal life, so a bit late with my year-end prognostications for the chart week ending Feb. 20, 2021:
Three more songs (including ROCKSTAR) have got over 1600 points in my calculations, which should lock them into a year-end Hot 100 spot. There's so little movement near the top, I could see the cut-off reduced to 1500 points.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Feb 18, 2021 16:51:15 GMT -5
Billboard 2021 Year-End Predictions: (Week 14/52) (02/20/2021) Locked🔒: Driver’s License, Therefore I Am, Bang!, Dynamite Locked Next Week: None Dropouts: More Than My Hometown, 7 Summers, What’s Poppin, Diamonds, Holiday, Mr. Right Now
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 38,440 2 “Positions” Ariana Grande 29,750 3 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 26,830 4 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 25,790 5 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 25,290 6 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 23,900 7 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 23,520 8 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 23,470 9 “Driver’s License” Olivia Rodrigo 23,270 10 “34+35” Ariana Grande 22,690 11 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 22,050 12 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 21,570 13 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 21,490 14 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 20,740 15 “Bang!” AJR 20,440 16 “Dynamite” BTS 20,100 ===LOCKED CUTOFF (20,000 POINTS)=== 17 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 18,880 18 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 18,470 19 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 18,340 20 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 17,960 21 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 17,570 22 “Better Together” Luke Combs 16,710 23 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 16,620 24 “Whoopty” CJ 15,680 25 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 15,030 26 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 13,860 27 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 13,430 28 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 13,370 29 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 13,170 30 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 13,160 31 “Willow” Taylor Swift 13,150 32 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 12,920 33 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 12,750 34 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 12,510 35 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 12,240 36 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 11,860 37 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 11,380 38 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 11,250 39 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 11,180 40 “Good Time” Niko Moon 11,060 41 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 11,040 42 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 10,910 43 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 10,900 44 “On Me” Lil Baby 10,740 45 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 10,730 46 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 10,700 47 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 10,220 48 “Good Days” SZA 10,060 49 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 9,980 50 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 9,880 51 “Save Your Tears” The Weeknd 9,650 52 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590 53 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 9,520 54 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 9,490 55 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 9,470 56 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 9,390 57 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 9,260 58 “Last Christmas” Wham! 8,690 59 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 8,440 60 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 8,210 61 “Golden” Harry Styles 8,170 62 “Without You” The Kid Laroi 8,130 63 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 8,080 64 “Anyone” Justin Bieber 7,870 65 “Champagne Night” Lady A 7,800 66 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 7,780 67 “Afterglow” Ed Sheeran 7,750 68 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 7,480 69 “You’re Mines Still” Yung Bleu ft. Drake 7,350 70 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,160 71 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 7,010 72 “Back To The Streets” Saweetie ft. Jhene Aiko 6,850 73 “So Done” The Kid Laroi 6,790 74 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 6,780 75 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 6,590 76 “Happy Does” Kenny Chesney 6,450 77 “Wasted On You” Morgan Wallen 6,230 78 “Bichota” Karol G 6,200 79 “Beers And Sunshine” Darius Rucker 6,110 80 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 6,090 81 “Damage” H.E.R 5,800 82 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,690 83 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 5,600 84 “Streets” Doja Cat 5,440 85 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400 86 “What’s Your Country Song” Thomas Rhett 5,370 87 “Back In Blood” Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk 5,300 88 “Sand In My Boots” Morgan Wallen 5,160 89 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 5,090 90 “Took Her To The O” King Von 5,080 91 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930 92 “Still Goin Down” Morgan Wallen 4,900 93 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 4,900 94 “Just The Way” Parmalee ft. Blanco Brown 4,800 95 “Best Friend” Saweetie ft. Doja Cat 4,730 96 “Down To One” Luke Bryan 4,730 97 “Still Trappin” Lil Durk ft. King Von 4,610 98 “Monsters” All Time Low ft. Demi Lovato & Blackbear 4,360 99 “The Good Ones” Gabby Barrett 4,310 100 “Long Live” Florida Georgia Line 3,770 Others: 101 “Moonwalking In Calabasas” DDG 3,570 102 “Cover Me Up” Morgan Wallen 3,220 103 “865” Morgan Wallen 3,210 104 “Warning” Morgan Wallen 3,190 105 “Bad Boy” Juice WRLD ft. Young Thug 3,130 106 “Up” Cardi B 3,090 107 “Buss It” Erica Banks 3,070 108 “Beat Box” Spotemgottem 2,810 109 “Drankin N Smokin” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 2,650 110 “Girl Like Me” Black Eyed Peas ft. Shakira 2,580 111 “Goosebumps” Travis Scott & HVME 2,540 112 “Lady” Brett Young 2,540 113 “Momma’s House” Dustin Lynch 2,530 114 “Hell Of A View” Eric Church 2,460 115 “Champagne Problems” Taylor Swift 2,350 116 “Heather” Conan Gray 2,220 117 “La Noche De Anoche” Bad Bunny and Rosalia 2,210 118 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170 119 “Dangerous” Morgan Wallen 2,080 120 “Heat Waves” Glass Animals 2,000 121 “Tequila Shots” Kid Cudi 1,990 122 “Errbody” Lil Baby 1,890 123 “U 2 Luv” Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 1,880
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Post by After Minutes on Feb 18, 2021 19:36:12 GMT -5
What are the chances that BL repeats in the top 10/top 5?
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Feb 18, 2021 21:19:50 GMT -5
What are the chances that BL repeats in the top 10/top 5? Well in my opinion, it’s still pretty early to tell. So far it’s definitely gonna be in the top 50 range. It’ll probably be in the top 25 range within the next couple weeks at this rate.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 18, 2021 23:03:27 GMT -5
BL comin' for that #1. It's gotta make up 125,000 points on Mood which will take awhile but that song is getting dropped on radio and its longevity after it falls out of the top 10 feels sus, could be gone by July or August and its gonna make up like 40000 points on Positions which should be easy.
And then we just need to avoid a Drake or Post Malone smash and boom Blinding Lights SOTY 2021
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Feb 19, 2021 13:01:55 GMT -5
BL comin' for that #1. It's gotta make up 125,000 points on Mood which will take awhile but that song is getting dropped on radio and its longevity after it falls out of the top 10 feels sus, could be gone by July or August and its gonna make up like 40000 points on Positions which should be easy. And then we just need to avoid a Drake or Post Malone smash and boom Blinding Lights SOTY 2021 Drivers License tho.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Feb 19, 2021 14:26:15 GMT -5
I can see drivers license topping the year end the same way Blinding Lights did, with good streaming but extremely stable radio.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 19, 2021 14:53:35 GMT -5
BL comin' for that #1. It's gotta make up 125,000 points on Mood which will take awhile but that song is getting dropped on radio and its longevity after it falls out of the top 10 feels sus, could be gone by July or August and its gonna make up like 40000 points on Positions which should be easy. And then we just need to avoid a Drake or Post Malone smash and boom Blinding Lights SOTY 2021 Drivers License tho. How's it going to be #1 if it doesn't even make the year end list?? Real talk I don't see it it's already below 30,000 & it keeps falling by like more then 10%. So far it's kind of ran like WAP it's just that with no BTS smash to compete its been at #1 every week so far but like with WAP I think it'll wind up with like 600k
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Feb 19, 2021 16:07:09 GMT -5
How's it going to be #1 if it doesn't even make the year end list?? Real talk I don't see it it's already below 30,000 & it keeps falling by like more then 10%. So far it's kind of ran like WAP it's just that with no BTS smash to compete its been at #1 every week so far but like with WAP I think it'll wind up with like 600k That's fair, but the difference for me is that WAP didn't have radio for long and faded out quickly. I think once the streaming runs out for Drivers License it'll still have the radio to keep it alive
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peachorino
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Post by peachorino on Feb 19, 2021 16:07:24 GMT -5
I can see drivers license topping the year end the same way Blinding Lights did, with good streaming but extremely stable radio. This also has been my running prediction for a few weeks now. With how weak the chart is right now, and with most of the current competition finally starting to run out of gas due to their age, I think there's a good ~60% chance Driver's License will end the year on top. There's still room to grow on radio, especially on AC, and we all know how much the AC format loves to play melodramatic piano ballads into the ground.
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Post by nathanalbright on Feb 19, 2021 18:03:45 GMT -5
With Driver's License it will be a #Sadgirlspring and #Sadgirlsummer, likely, on the AC charts.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Feb 19, 2021 20:19:54 GMT -5
Is TOTC taking a break from predictions?
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Feb 19, 2021 21:09:27 GMT -5
Is TOTC taking a break from predictions? They did post these regarding their predictions:
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peachorino
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Post by peachorino on Feb 20, 2021 5:29:41 GMT -5
So far, here are my current, probably extremely inaccurate estimations on each (eligible) song's chances at being #1 on the year-end list. I'll probably update this frequently as the year moves forward.
Driver's License <60%
With mostly stable streaming and the potential for ridiculous radio strength and stability, I'm currently giving Driver's License a greater-than-60% chance of being #1. I'm not ready to go above 60% yet though, as there's a couple hurdles in Olivia's way; First off, a massive chart titan like Drake or Post Malone could release something between now and May and get enough points to just edge her out of the top spot. Second, this prediction relies very heavily on radio being extremely stable until at least the end of Summer. It's very likely that will be the case, but weirder things have happened regarding radio dropping popular songs prematurely. If that does happen, DL's chances at being #1 will go down the drain.
Mood >40%
Although it has lasted alot longer than anyone here initially envisioned, and is still mostly stable on streams, its resilient radio floor is finally starting to give out, pushing its year-end #1 chances down to less-than 40% in my estimations. It still has a fairly impressive points lead over the competition and its descent will probably be pretty slow, which is why it's still #2.
34 + 35 <30%
I know the remix hasn't really done much, but whatever boost it does get will help its chances, even if slightly. It's still doing pretty damn well on streaming and is currently #1 on Pop radio, and with radio's love of Ariana, combined with how they're holding on to songs longer than ever, this one might have a shot. I give it a greater-than 30% chance.
Up >20%
I understand that it's still too early predict nearly anything regarding this song's chart performance, but I'll include it in my estimations just for fun. Although this doesn't have the pure strength that WAP did on arrival, it could outpace it with a stronger radio showing and better longevity on streaming. A potential all-star remix also isn't out of the question, which could significantly increase its chances. I give it a less-than 20% chance.
Go Crazy >20%
I don't think anyone in the world expected this song to get such a massive second-wind on radio, and on that token alone I give it a less-than 20% chance of being #1. Although I'm sure it'll enjoy great radio longevity for the next month at least, radio is basically all it has, and with the remix being a complete non-event, its set to come back down to Earth sooner than later.
Positions >18%
This song has been enjoying an unusual amount of longevity on radio, at least compared to Ariana's other songs. With that said, this song no longer has any real streaming or sales support, and it's highly unlikely that it's going to pull a Circles type radio run, so I give it a less-than 18% chance.
Blinding Lights >15%
Here we are, the legend. This song, against all odds, seems to be completely unstoppable, and is perilously close to completing a full year in the top 10. With streams still being ridiculously stable and radio still on-board after what feels like forever, you'd think I would be giving this song a strong chance at being #1 again, right? Well, except for the fact that it's over 60 weeks old now and is always going to be one album-bomb or bad radio update away from being kicked off the chart forever. I give it a less-than 15% chance.
Holy >3%
I know it seems pointless including this here now because of its catastrophic collapse on radio, but it still has garnered a large amount of points in its run, and for all we know could get a surprise late-term remix, or even stabilize on radio and hover in the top 40 for months. Though of all that is extremely unlikely, which is why I give it a less-than 3% chance.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Feb 20, 2021 8:21:17 GMT -5
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Feb 22, 2021 6:45:04 GMT -5
Potential Repeats from the 2020 Year-End List - Week 14 (February 20, 2021)
Locked Mood All I Want For Christmas Is You Laugh Now Cry Later I Hope Go Crazy Blinding Lights For The Night Dynamite
Unlikely ROCKSTAR
Very Unlikely Before You Go
OUT: More Than My Hometown **will not repeat** WHATS POPPIN **will not repeat**
DISCUSSION: What's poppin, brand new whip just hopped out! This week marks the exit of the breakout hit song from everyone's favorite rapper on IG. I gotta say I'm suprised it lasted as long as it did, never in a million years did I think it would chart for almost a full year back when I first heard it last February, glad it did though since it's a bop (fuck Tory Lanez tho). Unfortunately it'll fall a bit short of repeating though. On the other hand, fortunately "More Than My Hometown" will also share the same fate, which isn't to say that the song itself is bad or anything, but rather the person behind it, as we all know what happened earlier this month with said individual. Safe to say that I'm definitely not upset this song (or any of his other songs for that matter, it seems like) will be making their way onto the 2021 YE list. In other news, "Before You Go" and "ROCKSTAR" both look to be making their exits within the next couple of weeks, though the odds aren't looking too great at the moment for either song to repeat. "ROCKSTAR" may have a slight chance, but even its chances will heavily depend on how high/low the cutoff ends up being (assuming it exits this following week and doesn't magically linger around longer than expected, that is).
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Feb 23, 2021 11:00:19 GMT -5
Kings & Queens went recurrent this week, do you guys still think it'll make the YE?
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Feb 23, 2021 11:18:40 GMT -5
Kings & Queens went recurrent this week, do you guys still think it'll make the YE? I think so. Based on TOTC's projected cutoff, it looks to be finishing around the mid-to-upper 80s range, but that could change depending on how the charts evolve over the course of the year.
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