gs
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Post by gs on Mar 14, 2021 3:00:03 GMT -5
Here's what the year-end predictions chart would look like if Billboard started tracking on January 1st: #1. Drivers License, 311430 #2. Mood, 207758 #3. Blinding Lights, 203643 #4. 34+35, 188041 #5. Go Crazy, 178559 #6. Positions, 168216 #7. Levitating, 165207 #8. Save Your Tears, 151963 #9. Holy, 139225 #10. Therefore I Am, 132553 #11. For The Night, 131881 #12. What You Know Bout Love, 129895 #13. Good Days, 127643 #14. I Hope, 126202 #15. Whoopty, 125116 #16. Bang!, 125009 #17. Dakiti, 120521 #18. Lonely, 120248 #19. Better Together, 119226 #20. Body, 112284 #21. Laugh Now Cry Later, 111555 #22. Anyone, 111223 #23. Lemonade, 110411 #24. You Broke Me First, 104435 #25. Willow, 102162 #26. Up, 99630 #27. My Ex's Best Friend, 98145 #28. On Me, 97679 #29. You're Mines Still, 96878 #30. Back In Blood, 95525 #31. Good Time, 92479 #32. Starting Over, 89732 #33. Streets, 89456 #34. Throat Baby, 87496 #35. Dynamite, 84121 #36. Wasted On You, 83628 #37. Cry Baby, 83034 #38. Best Friend, 79523 #39. Without You, 78811 #40. Before You Go, 76857 #41. Put Your Records On, 74904 #42. Hole In The Bottle, 73350 #43. Damage, 73169 #44. Just The Way, 73159 #45. Sand In My Boots, 70800 #46. Down To One, 70359 #47. Beers And Sunshine, 69933 #48. Somebody's Problem, 68176 #49. What's Your Country Song, 67245 #50. Kings & Queens, 66932 #51. Afterglow, 66274 #52. The Good Ones, 63364 #53. Calling My Phone, 61723 #54. Long Live, 60481 #55. Golden, 60449 #56. Monsters, 59927 #57. More Than My Hometown, 58268 #58. Rockstar, 58164 #59. Forever After All, 57267 #60. 7 Summers, 57174 #61. Beat Box, 56499 #62. Tyler Herro, 56088 #63. Buss It, 54828 #64. Still Trappin', 50672 #65. Monster, 48074 #66. Goosebumps, 47052 #67. Happy Does, 46791 #68. Whats Poppin, 45975 #69. Cover Me Up, 45709 #70. Moonwalking In Calabasas, 44526 #71. Diamonds, 42640 #72. Bichota, 41903 #73. Big, Big Plans, 41882 #74. Back To The Streets, 41837 #75. Momma's House, 41397 #76. Lady, 41287 #77. Hell Of A View, 40776 #78. Heat Waves, 39690 #79. So Done, 37472 #80. One Too Many, 37164 #81. Savage Love, 36500 #82. Time Today, 36207 #83. Bad Boy, 35549 #84. Still Goin Down, 35415 #85. Somebody Like That, 35221 #86. Holiday, 33847 #87. Prisoner, 33342 #88. I Should Probably Go To Bed, 32209 #89. Masterpiece, 31738 #90. 865, 31364 #91. Warning, 31153 #92. No More Parties, 31036 #93. Mr. Right Now, 30066 #94. Finesse Out The Gang Way, 29865 #95. Champagne Night, 29640 #96. You Got It, 28671 #97. Pick Up Your Feelings, 27928 #98. My Head & My Heart, 27782 #99. WAP, 27014 #100. Almost Maybes, 26353 With breakdown for the top 25:
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Mar 14, 2021 4:35:51 GMT -5
Week 17 - 13/03/2020A rather quiet week this time around, mostly just feels like a continuation of last week. Probably the most I've ever had to put "None" under these categories. Current Tally (all songs over 125.000 points, 185.000 points to be considered locked):Added this week:Luke Combs - Forever After All Drop-Outs this week:None Songs Locked this week:CJ - Whoopty Songs Crossing the Cut-off this week:None Currently lowest Locked song:Ava Max - Kings & Queens Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:1 week:None 2 weeks:Tate McRae - You Broke Me First Taylor Swift - Willow The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 3 weeks:Chris Stapleton - Starting Over Machine Gun Kelly x blackbear - My Ex's Best Friend 4 weeks:Niko Moon - Good Time BRS Kash - Throat Baby (Go Baby) Lil Baby - On Me SZA - Good Days Cardi B - Up 5 weeks:None Crossing cutoff in 5 weeks:Yung Bleu ft. Drake - You're Mines Still Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk - Back In Blood Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:None Forecast (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 14, 2021 21:28:22 GMT -5
So I was reminded to ask this after the artist in question won another Grammy tonight: What are the odds that Damage makes the YE? Itโs pretty stable right now and I think itโll chart for the rest of its 20 weeks, but Iโm afraid itโll get dropped from radio too early and not rack up the points it needs to make whatever the cutoff will end up being.
Besides, I want H.E.R. to have a better YE hit than Slide, which I realized when going through the 2020 YE is pretty mediocre and a far cry from her best work.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 14, 2021 21:37:00 GMT -5
^My bet is that radio would be the determining factor. If it can beat the 20 week Hot 100 recurrent rule, it would have a chance to make it. If it does, chance are it would almost surely place better than Slide's #99 place last year.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 15, 2021 13:56:08 GMT -5
Hereโs to to hoping this week marks the beginning of the charts finally strengthening again. 4 debuts in the top 10 is a good start, and there should be a Grammyโs boost next week (hopefully Cardigan comes back)
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liam1396
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Post by liam1396 on Mar 15, 2021 20:38:27 GMT -5
So I was reminded to ask this after the artist in question won another Grammy tonight: What are the odds that Damage makes the YE? Itโs pretty stable right now and I think itโll chart for the rest of its 20 weeks, but Iโm afraid itโll get dropped from radio too early and not rack up the points it needs to make whatever the cutoff will end up being. Besides, I want H.E.R. to have a better YE hit than Slide, which I realized when going through the 2020 YE is pretty mediocre and a far cry from her best work. hopefully Damage can at the very least make the top 40, unlike Slide. I hope radio doesn't drop it and that the streaming holds up
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 16, 2021 9:28:37 GMT -5
Most of the songs that dropped out this week after having clinched 2021 YE spots were not surprising, with the exception of Bang. I was expecting that one to stick around for a little longer, but because of its premature exit, it might not make the top half of the YE, even with a low cutoff.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 16, 2021 18:20:44 GMT -5
Can I just say I enjoy the variety of ways people are tracking the top 100 of the year and still coming to a general consensus?
Anyhow, here's my list for the chart week ending March 20, 2021.
Blinding Lights is closing up on retaking the #2 spot of the year. I'd repeat that, but really you could just read that again. It won't end up there, but top ten of the year is not out of the realm of possibility.
Driver's License hit a speed bump with the top 4 this week all being new entries. It appears to be in a 3-way race with Up and Keep The Door Open for #1 next week which should bump it up another one or two spots on what seems its inevitable rise to #1.
I Hope has fallen off the Hot 100 but may still be a few weeks before it gets displaced from the year-end top ten.
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Mar 16, 2021 18:23:03 GMT -5
Will body even make the year end? It fell off p quickly
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 16, 2021 18:35:11 GMT -5
Will body even make the year end? It fell off p quickly Yep, it will. It's been locked in for a few weeks now.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 16, 2021 19:54:40 GMT -5
Will body even make the year end? It fell off p quickly Yeah, I think it's already locked.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Mar 17, 2021 5:02:25 GMT -5
Billboard 2021 Year-End Predictions (Week 18/52) Locked๐: You Broke Me First Locked Next Week: Save Your Tears, Willow, My Exโs Best Friend, Starting Over Dropouts: I Hope, Bang!, Lemonade, Lonely, Laugh Now Cry Later, Hole In The Bottle
1 โMoodโ 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 46,390 2 โPositionsโ Ariana Grande 36,360 3 โBlinding Lightsโ The Weeknd 35,590 4 โDriverโs Licenseโ Olivia Rodrigo 34,540 5 โGo Crazyโ Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 33,350 6 โ34+35โ Ariana Grande 31,610 7 โHolyโ Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 30,340 8 โLevitatingโ Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 30,120 9 โI Hopeโ Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 27,670 10 โFor The Nightโ Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 27,330 11 โDakitiโ Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 26,710 12 โTherefore I Amโ Billie Eilish 26,830 13 โLaugh Now Cry Laterโ Drake ft. Lil Durk 26,500 14 โLemonadeโ Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 24,710 15 โWhat You Know About Loveโ Pop Smoke 24,030 16 โDynamiteโ BTS 23,790 17 โBang!โ AJR 23,690 18 โLonelyโ Justin Bieber & benny blanco 21,680 19 โBodyโ Megan Thee Stallion 21,630 20 โBetter Togetherโ Luke Combs 21,450 21 โWhooptyโ CJ 20,950 22 โKings & Queensโ Ava Max 18,880 23 โYou Broke Me Firstโ Tate McRae 18,500 24 โAll I Want For Christmas Is Youโ Mariah Carey 18,470 ===LOCKED CUTOFF (18,000 POINTS=== 25 โSave Your Tearsโ The Weeknd 17,870 26 โWillowโ Taylor Swift 17,580 27 โMy Exโs Best Friendโ Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 17,200 28 โStarting Overโ Chris Stapleton 17,160 29 โRockinโ Around The Christmas Treeโ Brenda Lee 16,620 30 โGood Timeโ Niko Moon 15,620 31 โOn Meโ Lil Baby 15,410 32 โThroat Baby (Go Baby)โ BRS Kash 15,340 33 โGood Daysโ SZA 15,230 34 โROCKSTARโ Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 15,030 35 โBefore You Goโ Lewis Capaldi 14,220 36 โMore Than My Hometownโ Morgan Wallen 13,860 37 โForever After Allโ Luke Combs 13,790 38 โJingle Bell Rockโ Bobby Helms 13,430 39 โWAPโ Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 12,920 40 โWHATโS POPPINโ Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 12,750 41 โYouโre Mines Stillโ Yung Bleu ft. Drake 12,480 42 โUpโ Cardi B 12,380 43 โCry Babyโ Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 12,340 44 โMonsterโ Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 12,290 45 โAnyoneโ Justin Bieber 12,240 46 โSavage Loveโ Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 12,240 47 โWithout Youโ The Kid Laroi 12,120 48 โPut Your Records Onโ Ritt Momney 11,950 49 โDiamondsโ Sam Smith 11,860 50 โTyler Herroโ Jack Harlow 11,810 51 โHole In The Bottleโ Kelsea Ballerini 11,780 52 โBig, Big Plansโ Chris Lane 11,500 53 โItโs The Most Wonderful Time Of The Yearโ Andy Williams 11,250 54 โBack In Bloodโ Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk 11,210 55 โGoldenโ Harry Styles 11,150 56 โ7 Summersโ Morgan Wallen 10,900 57 โHOLIDAYโ Lil Nas X 10,730 58 โHawaiโ Maluma ft. The Weeknd 10,700 59 โStreetsโ Doja Cat 10,400 60 โA Holly Jolly Christmasโ Burl Ives 10,220 61 โSomebodyโs Problemโ Morgan Wallen 10,050 62 โFeliz Navidadโ Jose Feliciano 9,980 63 โLet It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590 64 โDamageโ H.E.R 9,540 65 โLove You Like I Used Toโ Russell Dickerson 9,490 66 โI Should Probably Go To Bedโ Dan + Shay 9,470 67 โBeers And Sunshineโ Darius Rucker 9,440 68 โThe Christmas Songโ Nat King Cole 9,390 69 โBest Friendโ Saweetie ft. Doja Cat 9,370 70 โWasted On Youโ Morgan Wallen 9,280 71 โMr. Right Nowโ 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 9,260 72 โWhatโs Your Country Songโ Thomas Rhett 9,170 73 โJust The Wayโ Parmalee ft. Blanco Brown 8,990 74 โAfterglowโ Ed Sheeran 8,820 75 โLast Christmasโ Wham! 8,690 76 โDown To Oneโ Luke Bryan 8,670 77 โPrisonerโ Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 8,210 78 โThe Good Onesโ Gabby Barrett 8,040 79 โCalling My Phoneโ Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK 7,970 80 โSand In My Bootsโ Morgan Wallen 7,810 81 โChampagne Nightโ Lady A 7,800 82 โUnderneath The Treeโ Kelly Clarkson 7,480 83 โMonstersโ All Time Low ft. Demi Lovato & Blackbear 7,460 84 โSo Doneโ The Kid Laroi 7,310 85 โBack To The Streetsโ Saweetie ft. Jhene Aiko 7,280 86 โLong Liveโ Florida Georgia Line 7,210 87 โHappy Anywhereโ Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,160 88 โBeat Boxโ Spotemgottem 7,070 89 โBichotaโ Karol G 7,070 90 โB.Sโ Jhenรฉ Aiko ft. H.E.R 7,010 91 โHappy Doesโ Kenny Chesney 6,940 92 โHit Differentโ SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 6,780 93 โWatermelon Sugarโ Harry Styles 6,590 94 โStill Trappinโ Lil Durk ft. King Von 6,540 95 โBuss Itโ Erica Banks 6,290 96 โAinโt Always The Cowboyโ Jon Pardi 6,090 97 โLife Goes Onโ BTS 5,690 98 โGoosebumpsโ Travis Scott & HVME 5,640 99 โMidnight Skyโ Miley Cyrus 5,600 100 โMoonwalking In Calabasasโ DDG 5,510 OTHERS:
101 โLadyโ Brett Young 5,440 102 โBe Like Thatโ Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400 103 โPretty Heartโ Parker McCollum 5,090 104 โTook Her To The Oโ King Von 5,080 105 โCover Me Upโ Morgan Wallen 5,050 106 โMommaโs Houseโ Dustin Lynch 4,970 107 โLa Noche De Anocheโ Bad Bunny and Rosalia 4,960 108 โGirl Like Meโ Black Eyed Peas ft. Shakira 4,960 109 โily (i love you baby)โ Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930 110 โStill Goin Downโ Morgan Wallen 4,900 111 โWonderโ Shawn Mendes 4,900 112 โHeat Wavesโ Glass Animals 4,880 113 โHell Of A Viewโ Eric Church 4,820 114 โTime Todayโ Moneybagg Yo 4,550 115 โDrankin N Smokinโ Future & Lil Uzi Vert 4,540 116 โWhatโs Nextโ Drake 4,330 117 โNo More Partiesโ Coi Leray 4,240 118 โSomebody Like Thatโ Tenille Arts 4,180 119 โMy Head & My Heartโ Ava Max 3,950 120 โBad Boyโ Juice WRLD ft. Young Thug 3,560 121 โWants And Needsโ Drake ft. Lil Baby 3,540 122 โAstronaut In The Oceanโ Masked Wolf 3,310 123 โ865โ Morgan Wallen 3,210 124 โWarningโ Morgan Wallen 3,190 125 โTelepatiaโ Kali Uchis 2,880 126 โLemon Pepper Freestyleโ Drake ft. Rick Ross 2,730 127 โLeave The Door Openโ Silk Sonic, Bruno Mars & Anderson Paak 2,660 128 โChampagne Problemsโ Taylor Swift 2,350 129 โHeatherโ Conan Gray 2,220 130 โFRANCHISEโ Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170 131 โDangerousโ Morgan Wallen 2,080 132 โTequila Shotsโ Kid Cudi 1,990 133 โErrbodyโ Lil Baby 1,890 134 โU 2 Luvโ Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 1,880 135 โLove Story (Taylorโs Version)โ Taylor Swift 1,610
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Lost In Musical Reverie
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"Everything seems nice, but if you look twice, you can see it's all lies"
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Mar 17, 2021 6:54:06 GMT -5
Rooting for "Monsters" and "Damage" to make it eventually, though prospects aren't looking too good for now.
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jthentic
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Post by jthentic on Mar 17, 2021 7:13:58 GMT -5
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Mar 17, 2021 9:30:53 GMT -5
I'm so glad Starting Over is getting the radio run after all. It should 100% make year end now
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Mar 17, 2021 10:20:09 GMT -5
I feel like I already know this answer but I'm gonna ask anyways, can 7 Summers make the year end?
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Mar 17, 2021 11:31:20 GMT -5
I feel like I already know this answer but I'm gonna ask anyways, can 7 Summers make the year end? Nope. Don't think it has any chance at all even with a really low cutoff
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Mar 18, 2021 5:56:16 GMT -5
Is someone doing Global 200 year end predictions?
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Mar 19, 2021 5:02:24 GMT -5
Week 18 - 20/03/2020A week that was both rather busy and at the same time rather quiet, somehow. Current Status (all songs over 125.000 points, 185.000 points to be considered locked):Added this week:None Drop-Outs this week:None Songs Locked this week:None Songs Crossing the Cut-off this week:Tate McRae - You Broke Me First The Weeknd - Save Your Tears Taylor Swift - Willow Chris Stapleton - Starting Over Machine Gun Kelly x blackbear - My Ex's Best Friend Currently lowest Locked song:Ava Max - Kings & Queens Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:1 week:Tate McRae - You Broke Me First The Weeknd - Save Your Tears Taylor Swift - Willow Chris Stapleton - Starting Over 2 weeks:Machine Gun Kelly x blackbear - My Ex's Best Friend 3 weeks:Niko Moon - Good Time Lil Baby - On Me SZA - Good Days Cardi B - Up 4 weeks:BRS Kash - Throat Baby (Go Baby) Drake - What's Next 5 weeks:Yung Bleu ft. Drake - You're Mines Still Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk - Back In Blood Drake ft. Lil Baby - Wants and Needs Crossing cutoff in 5 weeks:Luke Combs - Forever After All Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby - Cry Baby Justin Bieber - Anyone The Kid LAROI - Without You Ritt Momney - Put Your Records On Doja Cat - Streets Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:#57: Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth - I Hope #61: Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later #64: Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV - Lemonade #66: AJR - Bang! #74: Justin Bieber & benny blanco - Lonely Forecast (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):
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liam1396
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Post by liam1396 on Mar 19, 2021 12:25:51 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Bieber might get an album bomb or is it too early to tell? I only ask because his last album could only get a few songs to chart and the last few singles he dropped kind of underperformed by his standards
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atg
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Post by atg on Mar 19, 2021 12:28:35 GMT -5
^ A โPurposeโ type album bomb is definitely not happening at all. It might be shifted more towards โChangesโ but just with less songs.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 19, 2021 19:06:32 GMT -5
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Mar 20, 2021 22:38:25 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone mentioned this, but blinding lights might be the 2nd song to be in the top 10 of two consecutive year ends after closer. Itll be the first to also be #1 for a year too!!
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 21, 2021 0:37:34 GMT -5
Not sure if anyone mentioned this, but blinding lights might be the 2nd song to be in the top 10 of two consecutive year ends after closer. Itll be the first to also be #1 for a year too!! It would be the fourth because Candle In the Wind and How Do I Live both did it in 1997 and 1998.
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Post by plankton5165 on Mar 21, 2021 12:38:59 GMT -5
Baby I Love Your Way was in the Billboard Year-end during three decades in a row.
Is there any other songs that were in the Billboard Year-end during three decades in a row?
A song could easily repeat this with a cover of any song that was in the year-end in 2009 and 2010.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 21, 2021 15:50:52 GMT -5
Looks like Throat Baby is slated to make its exit this coming week. Its prospects for the YE are pretty dicey; it has more points than ROCKSTAR, but could get knocked out of contention if more strong competition comes in.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Mar 21, 2021 19:11:28 GMT -5
question for people less lazy than me: how long will it take for Blinding Lights to overtake Positions in year-end predictions, and will that happen before, at the same time as, or after drivers License overtaking both?
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Mar 21, 2021 23:20:45 GMT -5
^Based on TOTC predictions, it would take two weeks for Blinding Lights to overtake Positions and Drivers License four weeks to overtake both assuming the gap in points remained the same as they are predicting for this week. The weekly gap between the points for Blinding LIghts and Drivers continues to narrow, so it could definitely take the latter five weeks or more. This all assumes that Blinding Lights doesn't go recurrent for good within that time frame.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 22, 2021 10:12:28 GMT -5
Really hoping Good Time makes the list. This yearโs been so mediocre; I need some easy trash to dogpile on
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 22, 2021 10:24:19 GMT -5
Really hoping Good Time makes the list. This yearโs been so mediocre; I need some easy trash to dogpile on It should finish right around where RATCT is, assuming Bieber knocks it out next week.
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