mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 22, 2021 15:33:18 GMT -5
And just as I think the charts are about to strengthen, Up goes and takes the top spot with only 24k points. Just three years ago, that would have only put it at about #7. There was not a #1 that weak across the entire 2010s, even before the streaming era started. Even compared to last year, this is pathetically weak. Sales are lower than ever. Radio is lower than ever. Streaming is lower than it’s been since 2016, when the other two metrics were dominant (and even then, plenty of songs were still out-streaming the top 10 today). People really just do not give a damn about music right now.
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Post by nathanalbright on Mar 22, 2021 23:25:25 GMT -5
One wonders what it would take to reverse such matters, and how long points will stay that low, all of which threatens historically low YE points totals, obviously.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Mar 23, 2021 13:20:55 GMT -5
I'm hoping whatever the issue is clears up soon, I really don't want to see another year end driven by mainly radio.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 24, 2021 9:28:51 GMT -5
So I was reminded to ask this after the artist in question won another Grammy tonight: What are the odds that Damage makes the YE? It’s pretty stable right now and I think it’ll chart for the rest of its 20 weeks, but I’m afraid it’ll get dropped from radio too early and not rack up the points it needs to make whatever the cutoff will end up being. Besides, I want H.E.R. to have a better YE hit than Slide, which I realized when going through the 2020 YE is pretty mediocre and a far cry from her best work. Update: Looks like this is beginning to really collapse on radio. If it continues at its current rate, it will probably exit before hitting 20 weeks and miss the YE. RIP to a great song that deserved better :(
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Mar 24, 2021 11:48:22 GMT -5
So I was reminded to ask this after the artist in question won another Grammy tonight: What are the odds that Damage makes the YE? It’s pretty stable right now and I think it’ll chart for the rest of its 20 weeks, but I’m afraid it’ll get dropped from radio too early and not rack up the points it needs to make whatever the cutoff will end up being. Besides, I want H.E.R. to have a better YE hit than Slide, which I realized when going through the 2020 YE is pretty mediocre and a far cry from her best work. Update: Looks like this is beginning to really collapse on radio. If it continues at its current rate, it will probably exit before hitting 20 weeks and miss the YE. RIP to a great song that deserved better :'( :'( :'(
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 25, 2021 9:57:02 GMT -5
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Post by reputainbow on Mar 25, 2021 10:35:13 GMT -5
{MARCH 2021}
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n13l5
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I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
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Post by n13l5 on Mar 30, 2021 14:26:06 GMT -5
So what happened, did everyone lost interest in the charts in here? Why has it been quiet of almost an entire week?
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jab625246
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Post by jab625246 on Mar 30, 2021 14:30:35 GMT -5
^ I know. For some reason this thread hasn't been as active or up to date as the 2020 Year-End predictions.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 30, 2021 15:49:43 GMT -5
That’s because popular music itself has been totally irrelevant this year. At a point, you just get tired of following something that doesn’t even matter. Am I supposed to feel something about Justin Bieber getting an album bomb this week? Even going into next week when Montero will chart, the fact is the discussion around that song is way more interesting than the song itself. Which is why even though it’ll have a massive debut, I don’t expect it to stick around unless he starts remixing it to hell and back (like he did with OTR)
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 30, 2021 15:53:25 GMT -5
At least with 2020, the music was really good, and with the world collapsing around us, following the charts was a great distraction.
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n13l5
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I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
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Post by n13l5 on Mar 30, 2021 15:54:31 GMT -5
That’s because popular music itself has been totally irrelevant this year. At a point, you just get tired of following something that doesn’t even matter. Am I supposed to feel something about Justin Bieber getting an album bomb this week? Even going into next week when Montero will chart, the fact is the discussion around that song is way more interesting than the song itself. Which is why even though it’ll have a massive debut, I don’t expect it to stick around unless he starts remixing it to hell and back (like he did with OTR) ''remixing it to hell and back''
I see what you did there
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 30, 2021 15:58:53 GMT -5
So what happened, did everyone lost interest in the charts in here? Why has it been quiet of almost an entire week? I'd chalk it up to there not being as much interest in the YE as there was last year, especially since there are now less users making and/or publicly posting weekly predictions. It's also probably an extension of how much less interesting the charts are this year compared to the past couple years, as mikerivera said.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Mar 30, 2021 16:16:29 GMT -5
I still feel like Blinding Lights is gonna be Top 3 again this year
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Mar 30, 2021 16:21:10 GMT -5
I don't mind it, makes the actual points posts easier to find. If you go back to the 2014 preds the entire year was condensed down to 13 pages. Not like discussions can't be fun but it is nice to not always have to sift through 3 pages of mostly a lot of song opinions
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Mar 30, 2021 18:44:37 GMT -5
Well, I guess I'll start off some discussion with some of my year end guesses! I don't use a formula, I'm not an expert, these are just completely random guesses with some guide from TOTC's predictions. Some of these are fresh songs which I'm trying to guess how their chart run will go down, so don't expect this list to be accurate at all. Any songs not included are ones I don't think will make year end or I'm just not sure on. Feel free to correct me on anything. #1-10: Drivers License, Mood, Blinding Lights, Up, Leave The Door Open, Peaches, Save Your Tears, 34+35 #11-20: Go Crazy, Levitating, Positions, What You Know Bout Love #21-30: Therefore I Am, Holy, Heartbreak Anniversary, For The Night, Astronaut In The Ocean, Dakiti #31-40: Forever After All, Calling My Phone, What's Next, I Hope, Dynamite, Street Runner, Laugh Now Cry Later, You Broke Me First #41-50: Lemonade, Bang!, Whoopty, Starting Over, Better Together, Good Days, You're Mines Still #51-60: Body, Without You, Lonely, On Me, Back In Blood, My Ex's Best Friend, Streets #61-70: The Good Ones, Willow, Hold On, Best Friend, Anyone, Beat Box #71-80: Kings & Queens, Beautiful Mistakes, Wants And Needs, Put Your Records On, Good Time, My Head & My Heart #81-90: Cry Baby, No More Parties, Heat Waves #91-100: What's Your Country, Throat Baby, Hell Of A View
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Mar 30, 2021 19:03:18 GMT -5
At least with 2020, the music was really good, and with the world collapsing around us, following the charts was a great distraction. I agree. I think this year and probably the next few will be a transitional period for society at large which may impact the public's interest in music. Barring some major debuts, I expect 2021 and possibly 2022 as being bland years for the charts. It is also possible that this disinterest persists if pop music is becoming less concentrated.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 30, 2021 20:06:18 GMT -5
Well, I guess I'll start off some discussion with some of my year end guesses! I don't use a formula, I'm not an expert, these are just completely random guesses with some guide from TOTC's predictions. Some of these are fresh songs which I'm trying to guess how their chart run will go down, so don't expect this list to be accurate at all. Any songs not included are ones I don't think will make year end or I'm just not sure on. Feel free to correct me on anything. #1-10: Drivers License, Mood, Blinding Lights, Up, Leave The Door Open, Peaches, Save Your Tears, 34+35 #11-20: Go Crazy, Levitating, Positions, What You Know Bout Love #21-30: Therefore I Am, Holy, Heartbreak Anniversary, For The Night, Astronaut In The Ocean, Dakiti #31-40: Forever After All, Calling My Phone, What's Next, I Hope, Dynamite, Street Runner, Laugh Now Cry Later, You Broke Me First #41-50: Lemonade, Bang!, Whoopty, Starting Over, Better Together, Good Days, You're Mines Still #51-60: Body, Without You, Lonely, On Me, Back In Blood, My Ex's Best Friend, Streets #61-70: The Good Ones, Willow, Hold On, Best Friend, Anyone, Beat Box #71-80: Kings & Queens, Beautiful Mistakes, Put Your Records On, Good Time, My Head & My Heart #81-90: Cry Baby, No More Parties, Heat Waves #91-100: What's Your Country Song, Hell Of A View I would remove MH&MH and add Wants and Needs, Telepatia, Throat Baby, ROCKSTAR, and maybe Just the Way. (I assume you intentionally excluded AIWFCIY and RATCT, but those are also all but confirmed to make the 2021 YE.) I'm also keeping an eye on Glad You Exist and One Too Many, both of which are on sleeper country radio runs and could ascend to the top 40 in due time. Additionally, I get the feeling a remix of Track Star would put it over the top for the YE.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 31, 2021 0:03:57 GMT -5
Hey, y'all, I'm back. (Betcha didn't even miss me!) As I posted earlier on the All-Time chart thread, tanooki gifted me her format of chart data, and I found it to be so much more flexible than mine that I have basically switched over. It took a while to come up with a way to match my existing calendar year-to-date calculations, but I've got it now. So here, for the chart week ending April 3, 2021, is my estimation of where the Top 100 of the year currently place:
It's too late to get into details now, but I'll try to find time later this week.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Mar 31, 2021 3:07:36 GMT -5
2021 Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 20/52) (04/03/2021) Locked🔒: On Me, Good Time, Good Days Locked Next Week: Up Dropouts: Throat Baby (Go Baby), Still Trappin’
Sorry for not being here lately. But I’m back and better than ever with a new chart look! Chart Layout: Blue: Songs that are locked in the Year-End. Green: Songs that will be locked in one week. Yellow: Songs that have passed the projected cutoff. Orange: Songs that are close to passing the projected cutoff. Red: The rest of the songs below the cutoff. Dropouts: Songs that are italicized are songs that are not charting. 1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 49,930 2 “Driver’s License” Olivia Rodrigo 39,370 3 “Positions” Ariana Grande 39,200 4 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 38,910 5 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 36,730 6 “34+35” Ariana Grande 35,110 7 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 33,850 8 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 30,340 9 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 29,840 10 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 29,790 11 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 29,300 12 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 27,670 13 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 27,500 14 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 26,500 15 “Dynamite” BTS 26,24016 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 24,710 17 “Bang!” AJR 23,690 18 “Better Together” Luke Combs 23,460 19 “Whoopty” CJ 23,100 20 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 22,990 21 “Save Your Tears” The Weeknd 21,850 22 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 21,680 23 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 21,230 24 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 19,620 25 “Willow” Taylor Swift 19,590 26 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 19,360 27 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 18,880 28 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 18,470 29 “On Me” Lil Baby 18,050 30 “Good Time” Niko Moon 17,640 31 “Good Days” SZA 17,610
===LOCKED CUTOFF (17,500 POINTS)=== 32 “Up” Cardi B 17,44033 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 16,620 34 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 16,250 ===PROJECTED CUTOFF (15,500 POINTS)===35 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 15,370 36 “You’re Mines Still” Yung Bleu ft. Drake 15,31037 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 15,03038 “Anyone” Justin Bieber 14,78039 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 14,380 40 “Without You” The Kid Laroi 14,310 41 “Back In Blood” Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk 14,270 42 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 14,230 43 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 14,220 44 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 13,860 45 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 13,430 46 “Streets” Doja Cat 13,190 47 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 12,920 48 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 12,750 49 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 12,290 50 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 12,240 51 “Best Friend” Saweetie ft. Doja Cat 12,060 52 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 11,860 53 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 11,810 54 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 11,780 55 “What’s Your Country Song” Thomas Rhett 11,520 56 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 11,50057 “Damage” H.E.R 11,400 58 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 11,250 59 “Golden” Harry Styles 11,150 60 “Just The Way” Parmalee ft. Blanco Brown 11,060 61 “Calling My Phone” Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK 11,030 62 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 10,900 63 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 10,730 64 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 10,700 65 “Wasted On You” Morgan Wallen 10,540 66 “Down To One” Luke Bryan 10,450 67 “Beers And Sunshine” Darius Rucker 10,420 68 “The Good Ones” Gabby Barrett 10,320 69 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 10,220 70 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 10,050 71 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 9,980 72 “Beat Box” Spotemgottem ft. Pooh Sheisty or Dababy 9,780 73 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 9,590 74 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 9,490 75 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 9,470 76 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 9,39077 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 9,260 78 “Long Live” Florida Georgia Line 9,090 79 “Monsters” All Time Low ft. Demi Lovato & Blackbear 8,890 80 “Afterglow” Ed Sheeran 8,820 81 “Sand In My Boots” Morgan Wallen 8,810 82 “Last Christmas” Wham! 8,690 83 “What’s Next” Drake 8,220 84 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 8,210 85 “Champagne Night” Lady A 7,800 86 “Buss It” Erica Banks 7,670 87 “Leave The Door Open” Silk Sonic, Bruno Mars & Anderson Paak 7,630 88 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 7,480 89 “Goosebumps” Travis Scott & HVME 7,350 90 “So Done” The Kid Laroi 7,310 91 “Lady” Brett Young 7,280 92 “Back To The Streets” Saweetie ft. Jhene Aiko 7,280 93 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,160 94 “Bichota” Karol G 7,070 95 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 7,010 96 “Still Trappin” Lil Durk ft. King Von 6,970 97 “Happy Does” Kenny Chesney 6,940 98 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 6,780 99 “Wants And Needs” Drake ft. Lil Baby 6,740 100 “No More Parties” Coi Leray 6,690 101 “Heat Waves” Glass Animals 6,620 102 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 6,590 103 “Momma’s House” Dustin Lynch 6,500 104 “Time Today” Moneybagg Yo 6,410 105 “Hell Of A View” Eric Church 6,250 106 “La Noche De Anoche” Bad Bunny and Rosalia 6,250 107 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 6,090 108 “Girl Like Me” Black Eyed Peas ft. Shakira 6,080 109 “Astronaut In The Ocean” Masked Wolf 5,990 110 “My Head & My Heart” Ava Max 5,950 111 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,690 112 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 5,600 113 “Moonwalking In Calabasas” DDG 5,510 114 “Somebody Like That” Tenille Arts 5,500 115 “Drankin N Smokin” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 5,450 116 “Heartbreak Anniversary” Giveon 5,420117 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,400 118 “We’re Good” Dua Lipa 5,250119 “Pretty Heart” Parker McCollum 5,090 120 “Took Her To The O” King Von 5,080 121 “Cover Me Up” Morgan Wallen 5,050 122 “Telepatia” Kali Uchis 4,930 123 “ily (i love you baby)” Surf Mesa ft. Emilee 4,930 124 “Still Goin Down” Morgan Wallen 4,900 125 “Wonder” Shawn Mendes 4,900 126 “Lemon Pepper Freestyle” Drake ft. Rick Ross 4,820 127 “Bad Boy” Juice WRLD ft. Young Thug 3,560 128 “865” Morgan Wallen 3,210 129 “Warning” Morgan Wallen 3,190 130 “Peaches” Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon 2,880 131 “Champagne Problems” Taylor Swift 2,350 132 “Heather” Conan Gray 2,220 133 “FRANCHISE” Travis Scott ft. Young Thug & M.I.A 2,170 134 “Dangerous” Morgan Wallen 2,080 135 “Tequila Shots” Kid Cudi 1,990 136 “Errbody” Lil Baby 1,890 137 “U 2 Luv” Ne-Yo ft. Jeremih 1,880 138 “Love Story (Taylor’s Version)” Taylor Swift 1,610
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Mar 31, 2021 7:13:45 GMT -5
Well, I guess I'll start off some discussion with some of my year end guesses! I don't use a formula, I'm not an expert, these are just completely random guesses with some guide from TOTC's predictions. Some of these are fresh songs which I'm trying to guess how their chart run will go down, so don't expect this list to be accurate at all. Any songs not included are ones I don't think will make year end or I'm just not sure on. Feel free to correct me on anything. #1-10: Drivers License, Mood, Blinding Lights, Up, Leave The Door Open, Peaches, Save Your Tears, 34+35 #11-20: Go Crazy, Levitating, Positions, What You Know Bout Love #21-30: Therefore I Am, Holy, Heartbreak Anniversary, For The Night, Astronaut In The Ocean, Dakiti #31-40: Forever After All, Calling My Phone, What's Next, I Hope, Dynamite, Street Runner, Laugh Now Cry Later, You Broke Me First #41-50: Lemonade, Bang!, Whoopty, Starting Over, Better Together, Good Days, You're Mines Still #51-60: Body, Without You, Lonely, On Me, Back In Blood, My Ex's Best Friend, Streets #61-70: The Good Ones, Willow, Hold On, Best Friend, Anyone, Beat Box #71-80: Kings & Queens, Beautiful Mistakes, Put Your Records On, Good Time, My Head & My Heart #81-90: Cry Baby, No More Parties, Heat Waves #91-100: What's Your Country Song, Hell Of A View I would remove MH&MH and add Wants and Needs, Telepatia, Throat Baby, ROCKSTAR, and maybe Just the Way. (I assume you intentionally excluded AIWFCIY and RATCT, but those are also all but confirmed to make the 2021 YE.) I'm also keeping an eye on Glad You Exist and One Too Many, both of which are on sleeper country radio runs and could ascend to the top 40 in due time. Additionally, I get the feeling a remix of Track Star would put it over the top for the YE. Yeah I have no idea what Billboard is gonna do with Christmas songs going forward. I actually meant to include Throat Baby, I somehow missed it. Maybe Wants And Needs could make it, not sure for the rest yet. It really depends on how low the cutoff is gonna be.
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Post by kingscouser on Mar 31, 2021 9:05:45 GMT -5
Bieber Vs Nas X next week on the charts. Nas X is killing it on downloads and streaming but Bieber's song has the advantage of already staring its grasp on radio.
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suzcruz7
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Post by suzcruz7 on Mar 31, 2021 20:59:16 GMT -5
I HOPE telepatia can end up making the Year-End. But it's gonna need a legit radio push/support for that.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 31, 2021 21:06:50 GMT -5
I HOPE telepatia can end up making the Year-End. But it's gonna need a legit radio push/support for that. I think it's going to be the Supalonely of 2021 - it won't peak very high, but it'll have the streaming consistency and (possibly) radio support needed to make it.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Mar 31, 2021 22:07:23 GMT -5
I wonder if "Peaches" could be the year-end #1 if it will keep up higher momentum than "driver's license". Given that the latter has pretty much peaked in airplay (and especially in streaming and sales), it's probably not exactly going to be a longevity champ. With that said, if "Peaches" manages to stay in, say, the top 30 until the end of November, it has a pretty good chance, right? On the topic of "driver's license", it seems like it might not even pass "Mood". At this rate, it would need about 10 more weeks to overtake "Mood", but it could even fall below "Mood" on the weekly chart by June. "driver's license" doesn't seem to have the momentum that most of us probably thought it would after its first 5 weeks charting.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 31, 2021 22:20:38 GMT -5
All of that assumes that Blinding Lights ever goes back super recurrent. If Blinding Lights continues to chart until the end of November, it probably won't matter what any other song does because it will repeat as Year End #1.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Mar 31, 2021 23:25:56 GMT -5
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atg
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Post by atg on Mar 31, 2021 23:36:50 GMT -5
All of that assumes that Blinding Lights ever goes back super recurrent. If Blinding Lights continues to chart until the end of November, it probably won't matter what any other song does because it will repeat as Year End #1. I heard there’s a Gunna remix of Blinding Lights coming your way soon. Better keep your hopes up that we might see some insane streaming that will bring it back to #1 for 10 more weeks and then linger around the top 10 till 2040 because Gunna fixes everything. Gunna is life. Also don’t go looking for the source because everything that’s said on this thread is definitely 2000% true so yes.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2021 23:39:05 GMT -5
Can Blinding Lights just die already? Don't get me wrong, it's a good song, but why in the name of Jiminy Cricket should it STILL be in the Top 10?
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
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My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Mar 31, 2021 23:50:38 GMT -5
With the recent posts regarding which may be the YE #1, but the possibility of someone getting their second YE #1 may happen with either Bieber with "Peaches" and Weeknd with "Blinding Lights", although I think the latter can be really possible if it continues to stick around.
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