suzcruz7
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Post by suzcruz7 on Apr 1, 2021 0:04:35 GMT -5
With the recent posts regarding which may be the YE #1, but the possibility of someone getting their second YE #1 may happen with either Bieber with "Peaches" and Weeknd with "Blinding Lights", although I think the latter can be really possible if it continues to stick around. He's not gonna close to the radio support that Bieber will but imagine if it was Lil Nas X that got another year end number one lol.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Apr 1, 2021 3:26:11 GMT -5
With the recent posts regarding which may be the YE #1, but the possibility of someone getting their second YE #1 may happen with either Bieber with "Peaches" and Weeknd with "Blinding Lights", although I think the latter can be really possible if it continues to stick around. He's not gonna close to the radio support that Bieber will but imagine if it was Lil Nas X that got another year end number one lol. Hey, Lil Nas X can be possible too! "Old Town Road" if I remember didn't had much radio support, but the streaming was insanely high.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Apr 1, 2021 3:29:38 GMT -5
I wanna see how well Nas X holds up after the first week, it'll probably stick around for a few more weeks with the hype but there's a chance it'll fizzle out like WAP after the controversy is gone. Hopefully radio will get on board since it's relatively radio friendly.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Apr 1, 2021 6:39:10 GMT -5
Blinding Lights hasn't been at the #1 position of its 2021 chart run though, so if it somehow manages to be the year end #1 it would be the first to do so without a #1 peak in the chart period since Hanging By A Moment in 2001.
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dovahduck
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Post by dovahduck on Apr 1, 2021 7:22:25 GMT -5
All of that assumes that Blinding Lights ever goes back super recurrent. If Blinding Lights continues to chart until the end of November, it probably won't matter what any other song does because it will repeat as Year End #1. I heard there’s a Gunna remix of Blinding Lights coming your way soon. Better keep your hopes up that we might see some insane streaming that will bring it back to #1 for 10 more weeks and then linger around the top 10 till 2040 because Gunna fixes everything. Gunna is life. Also don’t go looking for the source because everything that’s said on this thread is definitely 2000% true so yes. Look out for the "Save Your Tears" remix with DaBaby as well 👀
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Apr 1, 2021 9:59:04 GMT -5
If blinding lights is #1 2 years in a row i will hurlll
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Apr 1, 2021 10:17:03 GMT -5
My preds for year-end
Mood #2 or #3 drivers license #3-#5 Blinding Lights #5-#10 positions, Up, Levitating #12-#17
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Post by Henry Suárez on Apr 1, 2021 14:52:14 GMT -5
Blinding Lights will pull a How Do I Live/Candle in the Wind 1997.
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Post by nathanalbright on Apr 1, 2021 15:45:28 GMT -5
That's not so hard when one spends more than seventy weeks on the chart.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2021 16:07:16 GMT -5
My preds for year-end Mood #2 or #3 drivers license #3-#5 Blinding Lights #5-#10 positions, Up, Levitating #12-#17 Where do you think Leave The Door Open, Circles Save Your Tears and Forever After All will end up?
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Lost In Musical Reverie
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Apr 2, 2021 4:33:23 GMT -5
Blinding Lights will pull a How Do I Live/Candle in the Wind 1997. I think it's already guaranteed to finish at the Year-End top 10, so yeah, absolutely. A fitting honour, too ❤
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Apr 2, 2021 11:13:43 GMT -5
My preds for year-end Mood #2 or #3 drivers license #3-#5 Blinding Lights #5-#10 positions, Up, Levitating #12-#17 Where do you think Leave The Door Open, Circles Save Your Tears and Forever After All will end up? it's still early to tell for LTDO, but I think it'll be in the top 25 AT LEAST. I don't think Save Your Tears will be in the top 10, top 15 is more likely. It might be the Dance Monkey of this year (#4 peak, 10-15 weeks top 10, 30+ weeks on chart). Forever After All - probably in the 90s.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 2, 2021 11:16:50 GMT -5
I think FAA is going to be much higher than the 90s on the YE. It's already very close to passing the projected cutoff and could even pass Better Together depending on when it reaches the top of country radio.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 2, 2021 13:05:39 GMT -5
^Depending on when that happens and how quickly it drops in radio after that, I can see it reaching 30 weeks in the Hot 100. It might get a boost the week of the ACMs, especially if the song is performed during the show.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Apr 2, 2021 14:12:31 GMT -5
I think yall are still underestimating FAA. It's not even top 20 on country airplay and it's on its 22nd week on Hot 100. I think it could reach 40 weeks.
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Soundcl🕤ck
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Post by Soundcl🕤ck on Apr 2, 2021 14:55:41 GMT -5
Sorry, I wasn't familiar with the FAA situation. I thought it would go recurrent next week or something, since it's #61 and has more than 20 weeks.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Apr 2, 2021 15:28:08 GMT -5
Blinding Lights hasn't been at the #1 position of its 2021 chart run though, so if it somehow manages to be the year end #1 it would be the first to do so without a #1 peak in the chart period since Hanging By A Moment in 2001. I believe it would be the first ever song to be #1 on the year-end without having peaked in the top two in that year. This is, of course, assuming it does not somehow return to #2 or #1 at some point this year. As powerful as it has been on the charts, I find it hard to imagine it staying in the top 25 for another 8 months. It won't just stick around forever (even if it might feel that way at times, lol). If the 52-week recurrent rule weren't in place, then it'd have a good chance. And, on the topic of the chart run of "Blinding Lights", it's interesting to note that it surprisingly hasn't been in the top 2 since July. It has since spent 7 weeks at #3, with 6 of them being this year.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Apr 2, 2021 17:44:13 GMT -5
If Blinding Lights stays 1000 points ahead of Mood forever then it'll eventually pass it. Honestly how insane would it be if it made back-to-back year end #1's in the 52 week era all the while doing it with a peak of #3 the second time
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Apr 2, 2021 18:08:01 GMT -5
Honestly how insane would it be if it made back-to-back year end #1's in the 52 week era all the while doing it with a peak of #3 the second time Very. I actually almost want it to happen.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Apr 2, 2021 23:16:40 GMT -5
Blinding Lights hasn't been at the #1 position of its 2021 chart run though, so if it somehow manages to be the year end #1 it would be the first to do so without a #1 peak in the chart period since Hanging By A Moment in 2001. I believe it would be the first ever song to be #1 on the year-end without having peaked in the top two in that year. This is, of course, assuming it does not somehow return to #2 or #1 at some point this year. As powerful as it has been on the charts, I find it hard to imagine it staying in the top 25 for another 8 months. It won't just stick around forever (even if it might feel that way at times, lol). If the 52-week recurrent rule weren't in place, then it'd have a good chance. And, on the topic of the chart run of "Blinding Lights", it's interesting to note that it surprisingly hasn't been in the top 2 since July. It has since spent 7 weeks at #3, with 6 of them being this year. This one comes with an asterisk, but Look Away (1989 Year End #1) was #8 in the first week of 1989 and left the Top 10 after that. Of course, that was after Look Away spent a week at #2, 2 weeks at #1, and 2 weeks at #3 in December 1988.
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 3, 2021 3:44:02 GMT -5
Week 20 - April 3rdThe Bieber album bomb week is here, surprisingly not having as big of an impact as I thought it might. Current Status (all songs over 125.000 points, 185.000 points to be considered locked):Added this week:Doja Cat - Streets Drop-Outs this week:None Songs Locked this week:Machine Gun Kelly x blackbear - My Ex's Best Friend Songs Crossing the Cut-off this week:Lil Baby - On Me SZA - Good Days Niko Moon - Good Time Cardi B - Up Currently lowest Locked song:Ava Max - Kings & Queens Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:1 week:Lil Baby - On Me SZA - Good Days Cardi B - Up 2 weeks:Niko Moon - Good Time 3 weeks:Yung Bleu ft. Drake - You're Mines Still Justin Bieber - Anyone Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk - Back In Blood 4 weeks:The Kid LAROI - Without You Ritt Momney - Put Your Records On 5 weeks:Luke Combs - Forever After All Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby - Cry Baby Doja Cat - Streets Saweetie ft. Doja Cat - Best Friend Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK - Calling My Phone Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) - Leave the Door Open Crossing cutoff in 5 weeks:Thomas Rhett - What's Your Country Song Drake - What's Next Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon - Peaches Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:#50: Justin Bieber ft. Chance the Rapper - Holy #105: BRS Kash - Throat Baby (Go Baby) Forecast (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Apr 3, 2021 10:15:18 GMT -5
Is it safe to assume that drivers license will pass positions next week?
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 3, 2021 10:21:27 GMT -5
^Yes.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Apr 3, 2021 18:27:47 GMT -5
I believe it would be the first ever song to be #1 on the year-end without having peaked in the top two in that year. This is, of course, assuming it does not somehow return to #2 or #1 at some point this year. As powerful as it has been on the charts, I find it hard to imagine it staying in the top 25 for another 8 months. It won't just stick around forever (even if it might feel that way at times, lol). If the 52-week recurrent rule weren't in place, then it'd have a good chance. And, on the topic of the chart run of "Blinding Lights", it's interesting to note that it surprisingly hasn't been in the top 2 since July. It has since spent 7 weeks at #3, with 6 of them being this year. This one comes with an asterisk, but Look Away (1989 Year End #1) was #8 in the first week of 1989 and left the Top 10 after that. Of course, that was after Look Away spent a week at #2, 2 weeks at #1, and 2 weeks at #3 in December 1988. That's still impressive that it managed to be the year-end #1 while only spending just 6 weeks in the top ten. I know that chart longevity was not commonplace before the 90s, but I would still at least expect 8 or 9 weeks in the top 5 plus 4 or 5 more weeks in the top 10 for a year-end #1.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 3, 2021 18:37:12 GMT -5
This one comes with an asterisk, but Look Away (1989 Year End #1) was #8 in the first week of 1989 and left the Top 10 after that. Of course, that was after Look Away spent a week at #2, 2 weeks at #1, and 2 weeks at #3 in December 1988. That's still impressive that it managed to be the year-end #1 while only spending just 6 weeks in the top ten. I know that chart longevity was not commonplace before the 90s, but I would still at least expect 8 or 9 weeks in the top 5 plus 4 or 5 more weeks in the top 10 for a year-end #1. Considering its chart run and the weird cutoffs that Billboard used to have for their Year-Ends (even weirder than they are today), it just doesn’t feel right to call Look Away the biggest hit of 1989. Honestly, any one of the other songs in the top 5 would have felt more appropriate to call the biggest hit of the year. In fact, I’m willing to bet that Miss You Much (#5 on the YE; spent 4 weeks at #1 in October, more than any other song that year) would have been the YE #1 if it were tracked from January to December.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Apr 3, 2021 19:10:14 GMT -5
The chances of "drivers license" overtaking "Mood" are starting to look slim, especially considering it has likely already peaked in radio airplay. I'm still prepared for something else, such as "Peaches" or possibly something we haven't even seen yet, to finish at #1, given some strong weeks and good longevity until the end of the tracking year.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Apr 3, 2021 19:53:35 GMT -5
It seems the prediction of drivers license pulling a 7 rings type run is coming true
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Apr 3, 2021 22:52:49 GMT -5
I'd be willing to bet that drivers license will fall off the Top 25 before Blinding Lights.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 4, 2021 10:56:54 GMT -5
Looking at what could qualify for the YE soon, What’s Your Country Song and Just The Way appear to be within sight, but their chances of making it will depend on how slowly either of them will fall. Between the two, I think WYCS has the better chance given it’s been in the top 50 for several weeks now and is falling at a slower rate than JTW, but it could take a steep fall at any time.
EDIT: I just recently learned that JTW got a remix with Bryce Vine this past Friday, which signals that they may be sending the song to Pop/Hot AC soon. Just warning you all now in case that happens...
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on Apr 5, 2021 6:16:17 GMT -5
Here's what the year-end predictions chart would look like if Billboard started tracking on January 1st: #1. Drivers License, 311430 #2. Mood, 207758 #3. Blinding Lights, 203643 #4. 34+35, 188041 #5. Go Crazy, 178559 #6. Positions, 168216 #7. Levitating, 165207 #8. Save Your Tears, 151963 #9. Holy, 139225 #10. Therefore I Am, 132553 #11. For The Night, 131881 #12. What You Know Bout Love, 129895 #13. Good Days, 127643 #14. I Hope, 126202 #15. Whoopty, 125116 #16. Bang!, 125009 #17. Dakiti, 120521 #18. Lonely, 120248 #19. Better Together, 119226 #20. Body, 112284 #21. Laugh Now Cry Later, 111555 #22. Anyone, 111223 #23. Lemonade, 110411 #24. You Broke Me First, 104435 #25. Willow, 102162 #26. Up, 99630 #27. My Ex's Best Friend, 98145 #28. On Me, 97679 #29. You're Mines Still, 96878 #30. Back In Blood, 95525 #31. Good Time, 92479 #32. Starting Over, 89732 #33. Streets, 89456 #34. Throat Baby, 87496 #35. Dynamite, 84121 #36. Wasted On You, 83628 #37. Cry Baby, 83034 #38. Best Friend, 79523 #39. Without You, 78811 #40. Before You Go, 76857 #41. Put Your Records On, 74904 #42. Hole In The Bottle, 73350 #43. Damage, 73169 #44. Just The Way, 73159 #45. Sand In My Boots, 70800 #46. Down To One, 70359 #47. Beers And Sunshine, 69933 #48. Somebody's Problem, 68176 #49. What's Your Country Song, 67245 #50. Kings & Queens, 66932 #51. Afterglow, 66274 #52. The Good Ones, 63364 #53. Calling My Phone, 61723 #54. Long Live, 60481 #55. Golden, 60449 #56. Monsters, 59927 #57. More Than My Hometown, 58268 #58. Rockstar, 58164 #59. Forever After All, 57267 #60. 7 Summers, 57174 #61. Beat Box, 56499 #62. Tyler Herro, 56088 #63. Buss It, 54828 #64. Still Trappin', 50672 #65. Monster, 48074 #66. Goosebumps, 47052 #67. Happy Does, 46791 #68. Whats Poppin, 45975 #69. Cover Me Up, 45709 #70. Moonwalking In Calabasas, 44526 #71. Diamonds, 42640 #72. Bichota, 41903 #73. Big, Big Plans, 41882 #74. Back To The Streets, 41837 #75. Momma's House, 41397 #76. Lady, 41287 #77. Hell Of A View, 40776 #78. Heat Waves, 39690 #79. So Done, 37472 #80. One Too Many, 37164 #81. Savage Love, 36500 #82. Time Today, 36207 #83. Bad Boy, 35549 #84. Still Goin Down, 35415 #85. Somebody Like That, 35221 #86. Holiday, 33847 #87. Prisoner, 33342 #88. I Should Probably Go To Bed, 32209 #89. Masterpiece, 31738 #90. 865, 31364 #91. Warning, 31153 #92. No More Parties, 31036 #93. Mr. Right Now, 30066 #94. Finesse Out The Gang Way, 29865 #95. Champagne Night, 29640 #96. You Got It, 28671 #97. Pick Up Your Feelings, 27928 #98. My Head & My Heart, 27782 #99. WAP, 27014 #100. Almost Maybes, 26353 With breakdown for the top 25:
Thanks! Can you give us weekly updates about the January/December chart window?
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