gs
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Post by gs on Apr 5, 2021 12:39:06 GMT -5
Thanks! Can you give us weekly updates about the January/December chart window? I can add that to TOTC website as a button (https://talkofthecharts.org/hot-100/year-end) Check back in ~1 day and you'll be able to filter since Jan 1st
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Apr 5, 2021 18:38:35 GMT -5
Montero is coming in a lot weaker than I thought it would. 32k points. For a song that dominated the discussion as much as it did. And no radio support. Yeah this puppy’s gonna sink. Honestly, considering it didn’t drop by that many points, I wouldn’t be surprised if Peaches retakes the top spot next week.
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n13l5
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I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
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Post by n13l5 on Apr 6, 2021 7:12:38 GMT -5
Slowely the charts are getting interesting again IMO, with the Lil Nas X thing even if its for a moment and I wonder how good Giveon and Rod Wave will do the coming weeks, im intrigued
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liam1396
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Post by liam1396 on Apr 6, 2021 13:55:36 GMT -5
I am legitimately surprised that 24k Goldn's album only debuted at #22 and that none of the songs charted. Not even that big of a fan but i thought he had more buzz than that, especially after Mood became such a big hit
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Apr 6, 2021 18:31:22 GMT -5
Looking ahead: The 8/14 chart has the potential to be something special. That would be the record-tying 87th week for Blinding Lights, as well as Mood's 52nd week on the chart.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Apr 6, 2021 19:05:13 GMT -5
Looking ahead: The 8/14 chart has the potential to be something special. That would be the record-tying 87th week for Blinding Lights, as well as Mood's 52nd week on the chart. And let’s up the ante. Looking at where Blinding Lights is right now, if it averages 15k points for the rest of its chart run, then that 87th week will be exactly how long it’ll take to pass Uptown Funk on the streaming era chart.
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Post by nathanalbright on Apr 6, 2021 20:32:43 GMT -5
Ooh, that's exciting.
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Apr 6, 2021 21:06:12 GMT -5
The charts are weak enough right now that Blinding Lights will likely stay above #25 for a long time, at least to break Radioactive's record.
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Lost In Musical Reverie
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"Everything seems nice, but if you look twice, you can see it's all lies"
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Apr 7, 2021 5:38:39 GMT -5
The charts are weak enough right now that Blinding Lights will likely stay above #25 for a long time, at least to break Radioactive's record. The only way I can see "Blinding Lights" leaving earlier than expected would be through a massive album bomb - like Rihanna/Drake/Kendrick levels of huge. I'm not too sure on it beating "Radioactive" 's record, though. It should surpass "I'm Yours" (76 weeks) with ease, but it will be very vulnerable afterwards, in my opinion.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 7, 2021 6:28:00 GMT -5
The charts are weak enough right now that Blinding Lights will likely stay above #25 for a long time, at least to break Radioactive's record. The only way I can see "Blinding Lights" leaving earlier than expected would be through a massive album bomb - like Rihanna/Drake/Kendrick levels of huge. I'm not too sure on it beating "Radioactive" 's record, though. It should surpass "I'm Yours" (76 weeks) with ease, but it will be very vulnerable afterwards, in my opinion. I think it has a good chance of also passing Sail (79 weeks). Beyond that is pretty iffy.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Apr 7, 2021 11:29:38 GMT -5
Just a reminder that BL lost a week this year from the Santa bomb. It really should be at 70 weeks rn
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Post by jedenpolska on Apr 7, 2021 12:04:19 GMT -5
Any predictions for where Deja Vu or Dancing with the Devil will debut at?
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Apr 7, 2021 13:13:04 GMT -5
Just a reminder that BL lost a week this year from the Santa bomb. It really should be at 70 weeks rn Just wait for that one week to be the difference of it beating Radioactive's record
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Apr 7, 2021 13:14:00 GMT -5
Any predictions for where Deja Vu or Dancing with the Devil will debut at? Deja Vu top 10, Dancing With The Devil probably bottom 20 or not chart at all
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 7, 2021 23:21:57 GMT -5
While I'm here, one feature that I'd like to see on the new TOTC website would be a Year-End calculator of some sort. I'd love to know how many weeks a song needs with its current points and/or trajectory to make the Year-End, how many points a song is expected to accumulate by the end of its run if it's under the recurrency threshold, what position a song is expected to finish in based on their projected cutoffs, etc. It would save me a lot of work in forecasting what will make it and what won't. If anyone on the TOTC team sees this, I'd love to see my idea come to fruition in some way.
Anyway...
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Lost In Musical Reverie
2x Platinum Member
"Everything seems nice, but if you look twice, you can see it's all lies"
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Apr 8, 2021 0:38:04 GMT -5
Still hoping "Damage" can pull a "Slide" and last long enough to pass the cut-off. H.E.R. really deserves another Year-End hit to her name.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Apr 8, 2021 7:07:45 GMT -5
Still hoping "Damage" can pull a "Slide" and last long enough to pass the cut-off. H.E.R. really deserves another Year-End hit to her name. It's looking pretty unlikely sadly :(
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Apr 8, 2021 9:04:06 GMT -5
Still hoping "Damage" can pull a "Slide" and last long enough to pass the cut-off. H.E.R. really deserves another Year-End hit to her name. It's looking pretty unlikely sadly What sucks is that if it remains consistent for its last 4 weeks (which is entirely possible), Damage would have a decent shot to scrape on if you removed the two Christmas songs that have locked already. I'm going to be livid if those are what ultimately prevents it from making the YE...
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 8, 2021 9:36:26 GMT -5
^Unfortunately, even so, it would fall short, assuming TOTC's cutoff is correct. It would need 5 of those weeks to be close to the borderline.
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on Apr 8, 2021 11:18:03 GMT -5
Which year had the highest cutoff in points?
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Apr 8, 2021 13:00:48 GMT -5
Which year had the highest cutoff in points? 2017. The cutoff was about 185k points. 2018 also had a high cutoff at 183k
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Apr 8, 2021 14:21:50 GMT -5
I’d guess 2015 because that was the year when all the metrics were very close to their peaks. Go back to 2013 or 2014, sales and radio were bigger, but streaming was not as mainstream. Move forward to 2016 or 2017, streaming was much more mainstream, but sales really collapsed.
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Apr 8, 2021 19:23:01 GMT -5
Thankfully blinding lights is in freefall so rodrigo can have her deserved and earned #1. Drivers license and MONTERO are the only songs this year so far that had any real buzz.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Apr 8, 2021 19:48:52 GMT -5
I’d guess 2015 because that was the year when all the metrics were very close to their peaks. Go back to 2013 or 2014, sales and radio were bigger, but streaming was not as mainstream. Move forward to 2016 or 2017, streaming was much more mainstream, but sales really collapsed. Streaming was not even close to its peak in 2015. The average #1 song had less than 20m weekly streams. The cutoff for that year was 159k (although that was incredibly strong for the time, and the top of the chart was a lot stronger than what you see today). Sales may have started declining in 2016, but they didn’t collapse until 2019. Streaming took over in a big way in 2017, and sales were just strong enough for that year and 2018 to get higher cutoffs than usual.
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Post by Limited Edition on Apr 9, 2021 6:46:00 GMT -5
Thankfully blinding lights is in freefall so rodrigo can have her deserved and earned #1. Drivers license and MONTERO are the only songs this year so far that had any real buzz. Drivers license is pretty much in freefall too and the gap is still huge to Mood. And some other song can become the year end #1 too (Montero? Peaches? A song that hasn't even been released yet?)
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Apr 9, 2021 7:24:50 GMT -5
Can we take the time to appreciate how great this current YE top 3, it won’t but still I didn’t think we would get a top 3 as good as 2020 but this one’s even better, all of these songs 5/5 for me.
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jaffery
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Post by jaffery on Apr 9, 2021 14:22:50 GMT -5
Thankfully blinding lights is in freefall so rodrigo can have her deserved and earned #1. Drivers license and MONTERO are the only songs this year so far that had any real buzz. Peaches will be bigger than both those songs a year from now
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on Apr 9, 2021 14:39:55 GMT -5
Could Leave The Door Open still be a contender for year end #1?
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Apr 9, 2021 14:43:50 GMT -5
Could Leave The Door Open still be a contender for year end #1? Absolutely. It’ll probably need to get at least a few weeks at #1, but if it can pull off a Blinding Lights-style run (not many weeks at the top, but sticks around in the top 5 for seemingly forever), it can definitely pull it off
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mylo
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Post by mylo on Apr 9, 2021 14:46:24 GMT -5
I kinda see it as this year's dark horse
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