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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2021 20:10:22 GMT -5
^Actually, Heartless was released two days before Blinding Lights and was the song that was first promoted to radio. Early on, it would have seemed that Heartless would do better, but I guess, early on, Blinding Lights was just taking the scenic Hot 100 route. It's funny cuz everyone thought Heartless was gonna tear up Rhythmic radio and die on Pop while Blinding Lights would be his big pop hit, but Heartless still managed to get to #5 on Pop anyways That's what having one of the best beats in pop music history will do for you.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 4, 2021 18:44:01 GMT -5
Rather unusually, I seem to be the first to include the May 8, 2021 chart in my Year-end predictions. Kewl.
You'll notice I goofed on the rankings below. Drivers License should be ranked #4, not #5. I'll try to repost the corrected version.
ETA: Corrected version now applied.
I had expected Drivers License to catch up to and pass Mood to become the year's #1 song. Not any more. Olivia is only cutting the lead by 50 points a week, and that number is likely to drop when DL falls out of the top ten. Unless Mood falls off the chart completely, Drivers License won't have the momentum to pass. Mood could last another 14 weeks on the chart before hitting the 52/25 barrier and being de-charted. They may well have locked up the #1 song of the year.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on May 4, 2021 22:59:47 GMT -5
Billboard Year-End Predictions (Week 25/52) Locked🔒: Streets, Beat Box Locked Next Week: The Good Ones, Peaches, What’s Your Country Song, Astronaut In The Ocean Dropouts: Starting Over, Cry Baby, Monsters, Momma’s House
1 “Mood” 24KGoldn ft. Iann Dior 57,440 2 “Driver’s License” Olivia Rodrigo 49,150 3 “Blinding Lights” The Weeknd 47,640 4 “Positions” Ariana Grande 45,350 5 “Levitating” Dua Lipa ft. Dababy 44,550 6 “Go Crazy” Chris Brown ft. Young Thug 43,730 7 “34+35” Ariana Grande 42,090 8 “Therefore I Am” Billie Eilish 36,440 9 “What You Know About Love” Pop Smoke 35,560 10 “Dakiti” Bad Bunny ft. Jhay Cortez 35,280 11 “For The Night” Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & Dababy 35,180 12 “Save Your Tears” The Weeknd 33,820 13 “Holy” Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper 30,340 14 “You Broke Me First” Tate McRae 27,920 15 “I Hope” Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth 27,670 16 “Up” Cardi B 27,550 17 “Dynamite” BTS 27,470 18 “Laugh Now Cry Later” Drake ft. Lil Durk 26,500 19 “My Ex’s Best Friend” Machine Gun Kelly ft. Blackbear 26,000 20 “Whoopty” CJ 25,200 21 “Lemonade” Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV 24,710 22 “On Me” Lil Baby 24,560 23 “Body” Megan Thee Stallion 24,140 24 “Starting Over” Chris Stapleton 23,740 25 “Bang!” AJR 23,690 26 “Willow” Taylor Swift 23,580 27 “Better Together” Luke Combs 23,460 28 “Good Days” SZA 22,890 29 “Leave The Door Open” Bruno Mars, Anderson Paak & Slik Sonic 21,780 30 “Lonely” Justin Bieber & benny blanco 21,680 31 “You’re Mines Still” Yung Bleu ft. Drake 21,410 32 “Back In Blood” Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk 21,240 33 “Forever After All” Luke Combs 20,550 34 “Without You” The Kid Laroi 20,460 35 “Best Friend” Saweetie ft. Doja Cat 19,640 36 “Calling My Phone” Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK 19,140 37 “Kings & Queens” Ava Max 18,880 38 “Anyone” Justin Bieber 18,830 39 “All I Want For Christmas Is You” Mariah Carey 18,470 40 “Cry Baby” Megan Thee Stallion ft. Dababy 18,260 41 “Streets” Doja Cat 18,150 42 “Good Time” Niko Moon 17,640 43 “Beat Box” Spotemgottem ft. Pooh Sheisty or Dababy 17,550 ===LOCKED CUTOFF (17,000 POINTS)=== 44 “The Good Ones” Gabby Barrett 16,820 45 “Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree” Brenda Lee 16,620 46 “Peaches” Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon 16,440 47 “Put Your Records On” Ritt Momney 16,300 48 “What’s Your Country Song” Thomas Rhett 16,290 49 “Throat Baby (Go Baby)” BRS Kash 16,250 50 “Astronaut In The Ocean” Masked Wolf 15,310 51 “Just The Way” Parmalee ft. Blanco Brown 15,270 52 “Damage” H.E.R 15,170 53 “ROCKSTAR” Dababy ft. Roddy Ricch 15,030 54 “What’s Next” Drake 15,020 ===PROJECTED CUTOFF (15,000 POINTS)=== 55 “Before You Go” Lewis Capaldi 14,220 56 “More Than My Hometown” Morgan Wallen 13,860 57 “Down To One” Luke Bryan 13,780 58 “Montero (Call Me By Your Name) Lil Nas X 13,760 59 “Jingle Bell Rock” Bobby Helms 13,430 60 “Wasted On You” Morgan Wallen 13,320 61 “Long Live” Florida Georgia Line 12,930 62 “WAP” Cardi B ft. Megan Thee Stallion 12,920 63 “WHAT’S POPPIN” Jack Harlow ft. Dababy, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne 12,750 64 “Monster” Shawn Mendes ft. Justin Bieber 12,290 65 “Savage Love” Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo 12,240 66 “Heartbreak Anniversary” Giveon 12,210 67 “Wants And Needs” Drake ft. Lil Baby 12,080 68 “Goosebumps” Travis Scott & HVME 12,040 69 “No More Parties” Coi Leray ft. Lil Durk 11,960 70 “Diamonds” Sam Smith 11,860 71 “Tyler Herro” Jack Harlow 11,810 72 “Hole In The Bottle” Kelsea Ballerini 11,780 73 “Heat Waves” Glass Animals 11,650 74 “Big, Big Plans” Chris Lane 11,500 75 “It’s The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year” Andy Williams 11,250 76 “Time Today” Moneybagg Yo 11,150 77 “Golden” Harry Styles 11,150 78 “Lady” Brett Young 11,100 79 “Monsters” All Time Low ft. Demi Lovato & Blackbear 11,090 80 “7 Summers” Morgan Wallen 10,900 81 “Hell Of A View” Eric Church 10,840 82 “HOLIDAY” Lil Nas X 10,730 83 “Hawai” Maluma ft. The Weeknd 10,700 84 “Beers And Sunshine” Darius Rucker 10,420 85 “We’re Good” Dua Lipa 10,330 86 “A Holly Jolly Christmas” Burl Ives 10,220 87 “Somebody’s Problem” Morgan Wallen 10,050 88 “Feliz Navidad” Jose Feliciano 9,980 89 “Beautiful Mistakes” Maroon 5 ft. Megan Thee Stallion 9,510 90 “Somebody Like That” Tenille Arts 9,510 91 “Rapstar” Polo G 9,500 92 “La Noche De Anoche” Bad Bunny and Rosalia 9,490 93 “My Head & My Heart” Ava Max 9,490 94 “Love You Like I Used To” Russell Dickerson 9,490 95 “Momma’s House” Dustin Lynch 9,480 96 “I Should Probably Go To Bed” Dan + Shay 9,470 97 “Telepatia” Kali Uchis 9,430 98 “The Christmas Song” Nat King Cole 9,390 99 “Mr. Right Now” 21 Savage & Metro Boomin ft. Drake 9,260 100 “Track Star” Mooski 9,020
OTHERS: 101 “Afterglow” Ed Sheeran 8,820 102 “Last Christmas” Wham! 8,690 103 “Buss It” Erica Banks 8,630 104 “Sand In My Boots” Morgan Wallen 8,620 105 “Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Dean Martin 8,510 106 “Prisoner” Miley Cyrus ft. Dua Lipa 8,210 107 “One Too Many” Keith Urban ft. Pink 8,110 108 “Masterpiece” Dababy 7,900 109 “Champagne Night” Lady A 7,670 110 “Hold On” Justin Bieber 7,660 111 “Underneath The Tree” Kelly Clarkson 7,430 112 “Street Runner” Rod Wave 7,300 113 “Pick Up Your Feelings” Jazmine Sullivan 7,270 114 “Almost Maybes” Jordan Davis 7,250 115 “So Done” The Kid Laroi 7,180 116 “Back To The Streets” Saweetie ft. Jhene Aiko 7,090 117 “Happy Anywhere” Blake Shelton & Gwen Stefani 7,040 118 “Sleigh Ride” The Ronettes 6,980 119 “Bichota” Karol G 6,960 120 “Deja Vu” Olivia Rodrigo 6,900 121 “Made For You” Jake Owen 6,890 122 “B.S” Jhené Aiko ft. H.E.R 6,880 123 “Drankin N Smokin” Future & Lil Uzi Vert 6,850 124 “Still Trappin” Lil Durk ft. King Von 6,800 125 “Happy Does” Kenny Chesney 6,790 126 “Watermelon Sugar” Harry Styles 6,750 127 “Hit Different” SZA ft. Ty Dolla Sign 6,660 128 “Tombstone” Rod Wave 6,610 129 “Glad You Exist” Dan + Shay 6,500 130 “Quicksand” Morray 6,490 131 “Girl Like Me” Black Eyed Peas ft. Shakira 6,410 132 “It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas” Perry Como 6,380 133 “Run Rudolph Run” Chuck Berry 6,300 134 “Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season” Andy Williams 6,250 135 “Kiss Me More” Doja Cat ft. SZA 6,240 136 “Lemon Pepper Freestyle” Drake ft. Rick Ross 6,180 137 “Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer” Gene Autry 6,090 138 “You Got It” Vedo 6,010 139 “Ain’t Always The Cowboy” Jon Pardi 5,930 140 “Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)” Darlene Love 5,880 141 “White Christmas” Bing Crosby 5,870 142 “Life Goes On” BTS 5,860 143 “The Business” Tiesto 5,670 144 “It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas” Michael Buble 5,610 145 “Midnight Sky” Miley Cyrus 5,520 146 “Cover Me Up” Morgan Wallen 5,520 147 “(There’s No Place Like) Home For The Holidays” Perry Como 5,510 148 “Moonwalking In Calabasas” DDG 5,450 149 “Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90s” Sam Hunt 5,390 150 “Be Like That” Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee & Khalid 5,350 CLIMBING SONGS ON THE CHART: 151 “POV” Ariana Grande 5,160
158 “Headshot” Lil Tjay ft. Polo G & Flvio Foreign 4,700 159 “Nobody” Dylan Scott 4,650 160 “Richer” Rod Wave ft. Polo G 4,560
162 “Settling Down” Miranda Lambert 4,190 163 “Hellcats & Trackhawks” Lil Durk 4,070
169 “Gone” Dierks Bentley 3,540
179 “Lil Bit” Nelly ft. Florida Georgia Line 3,120
184 “Famous Friends” Chris Young ft. Kane Brown 2,820
187 “Solid” Young Thug & Gunna ft. Drake 2,790
191 “Ski” Young Thug ft. Gunna 2,470
193 “Hard For The Next” Moneybagg Yo ft. Future 2,390
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 4, 2021 23:09:07 GMT -5
Damage barely missing the YE on its 20th week while Just The Way looks primed to make the cut by its 20th week just makes me sad. The former deserved so much better; the latter can go die in a fire.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on May 4, 2021 23:16:18 GMT -5
Damage barely missing the YE on its 20th week while Just The Way looks primed to make the cut by its 20th week just makes me sad. The former deserved so much better; the latter can go die in a fire. Well.. Damage is in the projected cutoff so it just may barely make it. Who knows.. it may be the Slide of 2021.
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 4, 2021 23:48:11 GMT -5
Damage barely missing the YE on its 20th week while Just The Way looks primed to make the cut by its 20th week just makes me sad. The former deserved so much better; the latter can go die in a fire. Well.. Damage is in the projected cutoff so it just may barely make it. Who knows.. it may be the Slide of 2021. I’ve been using a variable cutoff that changes a bit every week based on what percentage of the tracking year we’re at (so for example, this week is #25 of 52, or ~48 songs). That’s how I came up with the conclusion that Just The Way will likely make it while Damage will likely miss. I could potentially see Damage sneaking on, but only if we get a dearth of new hits over the course of the rest of the year. It has much less of a chance to make it than Slide did last year. Meanwhile, JTW is likely to at least pass RATCT according to TOTC’s and your predictions by its 20th week, maybe even more if its current gains on Hot AC allow it to stay for longer.
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balan75
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Post by balan75 on May 5, 2021 9:38:37 GMT -5
Well.. Damage is in the projected cutoff so it just may barely make it. Who knows.. it may be the Slide of 2021. I’ve been using a variable cutoff that changes a bit every week based on what percentage of the tracking year we’re at (so for example, this week is #25 of 52, or ~48 songs). That’s how I came up with the conclusion that Just The Way will likely make it while Damage will likely miss. I could potentially see Damage sneaking on, but only if we get a dearth of new hits over the course of the rest of the year. It has much less of a chance to make it than Slide did last year. Meanwhile, JTW is likely to at least pass RATCT according to TOTC’s and your predictions by its 20th week, maybe even more if its current gains on Hot AC allow it to stay for longer. Keeping my fingers crossed that Damage makes it to the year end too. Damage samples Herb Albert's horns from Making Love in the Rain which I love. At the same time, I am glad to see Megan Thee Stallion make it to the year end with "Body" and possibly "Cry Baby". I also think that Megan Thee Stallion will have a 3rd year entry with Beautiful Mistakes together with Maroon 5. So far, looking at the above chart, many artists will have multiple entries such as Justin (4), Drake (*4), Megan (2/*3), Doja Cat (*3), DaBaby (*4), Lil Baby (2) Olivia (2), the Weeknd (2) and lastly Pop Smoke (2).
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 5, 2021 10:37:39 GMT -5
I’ve been using a variable cutoff that changes a bit every week based on what percentage of the tracking year we’re at (so for example, this week is #25 of 52, or ~48 songs). That’s how I came up with the conclusion that Just The Way will likely make it while Damage will likely miss. I could potentially see Damage sneaking on, but only if we get a dearth of new hits over the course of the rest of the year. It has much less of a chance to make it than Slide did last year. Meanwhile, JTW is likely to at least pass RATCT according to TOTC’s and your predictions by its 20th week, maybe even more if its current gains on Hot AC allow it to stay for longer. Keeping my fingers crossed that Damage makes it to the year end too. Damage samples Herb Albert's horns from Making Love in the Rain which I love. At the same time, I am glad to see Megan Thee Stallion make it to the year end with "Body" and possibly "Cry Baby". I also think that Megan Thee Stallion will have a 3rd year entry with Beautiful Mistakes together with Maroon 5. So far, looking at the above chart, many artists will have multiple entries such as Justin (4), Drake (*4), Megan (2/*3), Doja Cat (*3), DaBaby (*4), Lil Baby (2) Olivia (2), the Weeknd (2) and lastly Pop Smoke (2). As well as Lil Durk (2), SZA (2), Gabby Barrett (2), Giveon (2), Ariana Grande (2/3) and Luke Combs (2)
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 5, 2021 10:46:16 GMT -5
Justin might get a 5th song on the YE if Hold On takes off on radio soon. I think they're waiting until after Peaches has run its course.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 5, 2021 10:56:27 GMT -5
And can't forget about potentially BTS and Billie Eilish
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 5, 2021 11:58:29 GMT -5
Justin might get a 5th song on the YE if Hold On takes off on radio soon. I think they're waiting until after Peaches has run its course. Nah, I think Hold On will be off the charts by then. I think Justin is done with the pre-album singles. After Peaches, Justin will either promote a 6th single or be done with the era.
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on May 5, 2021 18:37:55 GMT -5
So I was considering the idea of how packed this summer might be for new album releases. I think this would make more sense in this thread since songs from these album will definitely reach the year end. We can predict the year end top ten with it too. Anyway, this could be a fun summer for music releases. This is just hypothetical with the exact dates, but actual, album-tease/suggestive based, predictions with the months. I had an original list with Billie listed for July 16th but it turns out she is releasing on July 30th so I'll move her to then, move Travis too, though this is supposed to be hypothetical when it comes to the specific dates anyway, so it's best not to take the specific dates to heart. (Let's just say Drake for May, since DJ Khaled drops his own album tonight. We already know Olivia Rodrigo is dropping her album on May 21. Bebe Rexha on May 7. BTS on June 16.) June 4: Khalid June 11: Cardi B June 18: Doja Cat June 25: Bruno Mars July 2: Roddy Ricch / Lil Nas X July 9: Posthumous Juice WRLD (finished Outsiders) July 16: Travis Scott July 23: Post Malone July 30: Billie Eilish* August 6: Lorde August 13: Kendrick Lamar As for the Hot 100 year end, a song from a couple of these albums could end up in the year end top 10 due to the cutoff for the year end top 10 being potentially lower this year, allowing summer hits that wouldn't have made it to the year end top 10 in 2017-2020 to do so in 2021 so long as they can still get above 600,000 points. Of course, singles from these albums released before the album have the best chance for the year end top 10, especially if the album ends up dropping in later July or August or later. Let’s now add Maroon 5 to June 11th.
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atg
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Post by atg on May 5, 2021 21:05:10 GMT -5
Imagine how messed up the charts would actually be if Bruno/Anderson, Drake and Kendrick all dropped on the same day. I don’t think any song in the 70-100 range would ever see the light of day again 😂…
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 6, 2021 7:21:41 GMT -5
From the looks of things, Levitating has a good chance of becoming the YE #1 at this rate - TOTC says that if it keeps up its current points rate for the next 12 weeks, it will surpass Mood.
Anyway...
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on May 6, 2021 7:36:50 GMT -5
Levitating definitely won’t be the biggest song of the year without hitting the #1 spot. I get that it’s on a second wind since radio has nothing else to play, but it’ll need a higher peak than #5. Don’t get me wrong, it would be awesome if that happened, I just doubt it
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jthentic
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Post by jthentic on May 6, 2021 7:42:07 GMT -5
Imagine how messed up the charts would actually be if Bruno/Anderson, Drake and Kendrick all dropped on the same day. I don’t think any song in the 70-100 range would ever see the light of day again 😂… lmaoooo, several bodybags
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Post by kingscouser on May 6, 2021 11:38:39 GMT -5
Honestly I never even considered levitating for year end number one. But seeing this second wind has me thinking. Its even rising on streaming and downloads.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 6, 2021 12:18:44 GMT -5
I don't think we're getting rid of Levitating any time soon. I expect it to have great longevity. It's kinda weird that it has a chance at year end #1 tho? I'm not complaining since I love it so much but it doesn't feel like the BIGGEST hit of the year
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 6, 2021 12:28:41 GMT -5
I don't think we're getting rid of Levitating any time soon. I expect it to have great longevity. It's kinda weird that it has a chance at year end #1 tho? I'm not complaining since I love it so much but it doesn't feel like the BIGGEST hit of the year Breathe and Hanging By A Moment didn't feel at all like the biggest hits of their respective years, not even going to #1 on the weekly charts, and yet they topped their respective Year-Ends anyway because of great longevity. Smooth and Fallin' deserved those titles more, though. What I'm more excited about if Levitating actually pulls this off is finally having a woman top a Year-End for the first time since Kimbra in 2012, and the first as a lead artist since Adele in 2011. Even if Olivia's hit felt bigger at its peak, that would be a well-deserved honor for Dua.
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kingvavis
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Post by kingvavis on May 6, 2021 12:50:26 GMT -5
I don't think we're getting rid of Levitating any time soon. I expect it to have great longevity. It's kinda weird that it has a chance at year end #1 tho? I'm not complaining since I love it so much but it doesn't feel like the BIGGEST hit of the year It doesn't feel like the biggest hit of the year, but it still feels bigger than Mood in respect to their popularity in 2021.
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 6, 2021 13:55:41 GMT -5
The biggest song of the year to me (drivers license) hasn't been doing to well these past few weeks.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 6, 2021 14:11:19 GMT -5
I don't think we're getting rid of Levitating any time soon. I expect it to have great longevity. It's kinda weird that it has a chance at year end #1 tho? I'm not complaining since I love it so much but it doesn't feel like the BIGGEST hit of the year A lot can happen, though. Just a while back, it felt like Go Crazy wasn’t going anywhere anytime soon, and it’s about to fall off the charts without beating the 25/52 rule. But even if it does hold on to some of its momentum, it is still possible for SYT and/or LTDO to pass it at some point.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on May 6, 2021 14:14:11 GMT -5
I mean, if you base it on the actual start of 2021, Drivers License is the biggest hit of the year. By a considerable margin. Mood isn’t even 2nd, and Levitating is only 10k from passing it
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 6, 2021 14:16:24 GMT -5
Also, if Levitating goes #1 on its 36th week it'll break the record for longest climb to #1. On its 34th week it would be longest climb without re-entering
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on May 6, 2021 17:25:52 GMT -5
I don't think we're getting rid of Levitating any time soon. I expect it to have great longevity. It's kinda weird that it has a chance at year end #1 tho? I'm not complaining since I love it so much but it doesn't feel like the BIGGEST hit of the year Breathe and Hanging By A Moment didn't feel at all like the biggest hits of their respective years, not even going to #1 on the weekly charts, and yet they topped their respective Year-Ends anyway because of great longevity. Smooth and Fallin' deserved those titles more, though. Much of Smooth's run, though, happened in 1999. To me, Maria Maria is the first hit that comes to mind when I think of the year 2000. For 2001, I would have said Lady Marmalade or All For You felt like the biggest hit. Even 2002's Year End #1 didn't feel like the biggest hit of that year. Foolish, Hot In Herre, and Dilemma all felt bigger than How You Remind Me. Not to mention, much of HYRM's run happened in 2001.
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atg
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Post by atg on May 6, 2021 17:41:00 GMT -5
For me, I felt like the biggest song so far this year is Save Your Tears. I know the music video discussion and the Superbowl has passed, but they both still played into huge factors that contributed to the amounts of success the song is having, as well as of course, the remix with Ariana as well.
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mylo
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Post by mylo on May 7, 2021 1:46:15 GMT -5
The biggest song of the year to me (drivers license) hasn't been doing to well these past few weeks. That doesn't look set to change unfortunately as TOTC has it falling 7 positions next week.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 7, 2021 3:02:25 GMT -5
I really hope Good Days can make the top 50 on the final year end list
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gikem
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Post by gikem on May 7, 2021 7:48:15 GMT -5
I really hope Good Days can make the top 50 on the final year end list I think Good Days will finish right on the edge of the projected top 50 cutoff, just behind Whoopty. I expect J. Cole’s album bomb to knock it out, as 5/22 is its 20th week.
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 7, 2021 10:41:39 GMT -5
Okay top 10 predictions, a shot in the dark. im aware that songs not released yet can also make it here, but im just gonna go off of what we already have
1. Levitating 2. Save Your Tears 3. Drivers License 4. Peaches 5. Mood 6. Leave The Door Open 7. Kiss Me More 8. Blinding Lights 9. Rapstar 10. Up
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