Lost In Musical Reverie
2x Platinum Member
"Everything seems nice, but if you look twice, you can see it's all lies"
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 2,297
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Oct 27, 2021 12:04:20 GMT -5
What I'd give to switch "Goosebumps" and "Drinkin' Beer, Talkin' God. Amen" with "Todo De Ti" and "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)"... Reminds me of 2019 when the likes of "Talk You Out Of It" and "Eyes On You" made it over "Never Really Over" and "GIRL". That was tough to stomach 😄 Anyway, these are still only predictions, and from my experience following these, I know there is always one or two unexpected placements (going back to 2019, just remember "Robbery" and "boyfriend" both making it to the dismay of many, or the infamous "Believer" + "Mi Gente" case of 2018). Guess we'll have to wait and see.
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Post by Foxable on Oct 27, 2021 13:50:30 GMT -5
Here's a few songs i believe will get caught between years at this point: Pepas, Cold As You, You Should Probably Leave, AOK, Girls Want Girls, Memory I Don't Mess With, and Wild Side Any others you guys think?
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Oct 27, 2021 13:59:14 GMT -5
What I'd give to switch "Goosebumps" and "Drinkin' Beer, Talkin' God. Amen" with "Todo De Ti" and "Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home)"... Reminds me of 2019 when the likes of "Talk You Out Of It" and "Eyes On You" made it over "Never Really Over" and "GIRL". That was tough to stomach 😄 Anyway, these are still only predictions, and from my experience following these, I know there is always one or two unexpected placements (going back to 2019, just remember "Robbery" and "boyfriend" both making it to the dismay of many, or the infamous "Believer" + "Mi Gente" case of 2018). Guess we'll have to wait and see. What would help is if the 11/20 charting week counted in the 2021 YE. That would remove Goosebumps and Drinkin Beer for sure.
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joshtheking
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Joined: April 2020
Posts: 1,437
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Post by joshtheking on Oct 27, 2021 14:08:18 GMT -5
Here's a few songs i believe will get caught between years at this point: Pepas, Cold As You, You Should Probably Leave, AOK, Girls Want Girls, Memory I Don't Mess With, and Wild Side Any others you guys think? Those seem like safe bets. My Universe maybe but too early to tell how the radio will treat it
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gikem
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Joined: October 2020
Posts: 3,813
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Post by gikem on Oct 27, 2021 15:15:27 GMT -5
Here's a few songs i believe will get caught between years at this point: Pepas, Cold As You, You Should Probably Leave, AOK, Girls Want Girls, Memory I Don't Mess With, and Wild Side Any others you guys think? I’d also add Buy Dirt.
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mikerivera
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Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,668
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Post by mikerivera on Oct 27, 2021 16:06:50 GMT -5
I just had a realization about year to compare to this year. So, I mentioned that you can’t compare this year to any year except 2020, but it’s still significantly weaker. You know which year had a very, very similar points spread? 2012. I got these numbers while calculating the reformatted year end list for that year, but here were the results I got for the top 10 (and bear in mind, this was the year that on demand streaming was added to the formula, but excluded YouTube)
1. Somebody That I Used to Know 1,056,710 2. Call Me Maybe 964,820 3. We Are Young 910,480 4. Payphone 729,150 5. Lights 636,630 6. Glad You Came 626,620 7. Stronger 620,060 8. We Found Love 619,600 9. Starships 597,070 10. What Makes You Beautiful 561,730
Compare that to Austin’s predictions this year. 1. Levitating 1,067,840 2. Save Your Tears 847,670 3. Blinding Lights 726,500 4. Mood 723,400 5. Good 4 You 680,740 6. Leave the Door Open 675,890 7. Kiss Me More 664,420 8. Driver’s License 659,790 9. Peaches 610,910 10. Montero 608,900
I know we still have 2 more weeks and the formulas were radically different, but the resemblance in point spreads is uncanny. And 2012 is a unique year in that no other year has had a comparable point spread, due to its formula only lasting one year.
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Lost In Musical Reverie
2x Platinum Member
"Everything seems nice, but if you look twice, you can see it's all lies"
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 2,297
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Oct 27, 2021 16:31:52 GMT -5
We can only hope "You Should Probably Leave" manages to pull a "Starting Over", though if I recall correctly, the latter benefitted from the album release and better timing. In the meantime, outside those mentioned by Foxable , it seems that "Family Ties", "Hurricane", "WHOLE LOTTA MONEY", and "Volvi" are also likely to get caught between years. Really sad for the first two... 😔 Also, "Ghost" and "THAT'S WHAT I WANT" seem unstable and vulnerable to the Christmas freeze, but both are likely to benefit from a boost at the Grammys. Finally, I currently have positive prospects for "Love Nwantiti" and "Meet Me At Our Spot", since the two still have plenty of room to grow, but we never know. I'm not going to bother predicting the prospects for the country songs, given their radio runs are always so frustrating. Hoping "My Boy" by Elvie Shane can stabilize a bit, but that's pure wishful thinking on my part.
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,088
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Post by inverse on Oct 27, 2021 17:50:21 GMT -5
Random question did anyone remember that Diamonds by Sam Smith was like an actual hit this year? I just updated my personal records of the top 100 biggest songs to peak in 2021 by points of the full chart run (shoutout to rockgolf for the idea) & Diamonds is above Just The Way and Yonaguni as of now even though the song feels like such a distant memory to a forgotten time. I remember being sad that it fell off too early to make the YE This is one reason I try not to care about the year end too much anymore. I still find it very interesting to follow but tbh life gets better if you don't let it be the sole determinant of what counts as a real hit, like Diamonds had just as much relevance in this timeline being the 200th biggest song of 2020 and the 140th biggest song of 2021 as it would have had if it had been the 89th biggest song of 2021
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rockgolf
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Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
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Post by rockgolf on Oct 27, 2021 18:39:24 GMT -5
For the chart week of October 30, 2021, here's how I thing the top 100 currently stands: This is the first week songs with over 1,600 points fail to make the top 100. I guess the final cutoff will now be in the 1,625-1,650 range.
And here's how I think the actual year-end, which finalizes in two weeks will end up: Est. Year end | Song | Artist | YE Est Pts | 1 | Levitating | Dua Lipa | 11622 | 2 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd & Ariana Grande | 9186 | 3 | Mood | 24kGoldn ft. iann dior | 8484 | 4 | Blinding Lights | The Weeknd | 8427 | 5 | Leave The Door Open | Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) | 7312 | 6 | Good 4 U | Olivia Rodrigo | 7201 | 7 | Drivers License | Olivia Rodrigo | 6936 | 8 | Kiss Me More | Doja Cat ft. SZA | 6885 | 9 | Montero (Call Me By Your Name) | Lil Nas X | 6682 | 10 | Peaches | Justin Bieber ft. Daniel Caesar & Giveon | 6228 | 11 | Butter | BTS | 5978 | 12 | Stay | The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber | 5714 | 13 | Positions | Ariana Grande | 5621 | 14 | Deja Vu | Olivia Rodrigo | 5392 | 15 | Heat Waves | Glass Animals | 5051 | 16 | Without You | The Kid LAROI | 5022 | 17 | 34+35 | Ariana Grande | 4985 | 18 | Forever After All | Luke Combs | 4948 | 19 | Go Crazy | Chris Brown & Young Thug | 4925 | 20 | What You Know Bout Love | Pop Smoke | 4842 | 21 | Astronaut In The Ocean | Masked Wolf | 4774 | 22 | Bad Habits | Ed Sheeran | 4704 | 23 | My Ex's Best Friend | Machine Gun Kelly X blackbear | 4599 | 24 | Up | Cardi B | 4419 | 25 | Therefore I Am | Billie Eilish | 4247 | 26 | Best Friend | Saweetie ft. Doja Cat | 4199 | 27 | Dakiti | Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez | 4182 | 28 | Heartbreak Anniversary | Giveon | 4131 | 29 | Fancy Like | Walker Hayes | 3964 | 30 | Industry Baby | Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow | 3935 | 31 | For The Night | Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby & DaBaby | 3909 | 31 | Rapstar | Polo G | 3909 | 33 | Calling My Phone | Lil Tjay ft. 6LACK | 3565 | 34 | Holy | Justin Bieber ft. Chance The Rapper | 3523 | 35 | Beautiful Mistakes | Maroon 5 ft. Megan Thee Stallion | 3495 | 36 | You Broke Me First. | Tate McRae | 3329 | 37 | On Me | Lil Baby | 3299 | 38 | I Hope | Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth | 3240 | 39 | Traitor | Olivia Rodrigo | 3200 | 40 | Wockesha | Moneybagg Yo | 3165 | 41 | Back In Blood | Pooh Shiesty ft. Lil Durk | 3137 | 42 | You Right | Doja Cat & The Weeknd | 3121 | 43 | Dynamite | BTS | 3010 | 44 | Laugh Now Cry Later | Drake ft. Lil Durk | 3007 | 45 | Beat Box | SpotemGottem ft. Pooh Shiesty Or DaBaby | 2982 | 46 | Good Days | SZA | 2913 | 47 | Need To Know | Doja Cat | 2897 | 48 | Wants And Needs | Drake ft. Lil Baby | 2831 | 49 | Telepatia | Kali Uchis | 2794 | 50 | Whoopty | CJ | 2749 | 51 | Lemonade | Internet Money & Gunna ft. Don Toliver & NAV | 2709 | 52 | Bang! | AJR | 2667 | 53 | You're Mines Still | Yung Bleu ft. Drake | 2649 | 54 | Every Chance I Get | DJ Khaled ft. Lil Baby & Lil Durk | 2625 | 55 | Leave Before You Love Me | Marshmello X Jonas Brothers | 2616 | 56 | Better Together | Luke Combs | 2614 | 57 | Willow | Taylor Swift | 2609 | 58 | Starting Over | Chris Stapleton | 2605 | 59 | Body | Megan Thee Stallion | 2551 | 60 | Beggin' | Maneskin | 2467 | 61 | The Good Ones | Gabby Barrett | 2404 | 62 | Chasing After You | Ryan Hurd With Maren Morris | 2389 | 63 | Way 2 Sexy | Drake ft. Future & Young Thug | 2364 | 64 | Lonely | Justin Bieber & benny blanco | 2350 | 65 | Late At Night | Roddy Ricch | 2340 | 66 | Streets | Doja Cat | 2325 | 67 | Glad You Exist | Dan + Shay | 2278 | 68 | Thot s**t | Megan Thee Stallion | 2261 | 69 | Famous Friends | Chris Young + Kane Brown | 2240 | 70 | Lil Bit | Nelly & Florida Georgia Line | 2221 | 71 | Anyone | Justin Bieber | 2103 | 72 | What's Next | Drake | 2080 | 73 | Essence | Wizkid ft. Justin Bieber & Tems | 2077 | 74 | Kings & Queens | Ava Max | 2004 | 75 | Time Today | Moneybagg Yo | 1997 | 76 | Track Star | Mooski | 1978 | 77 | What's Your Country Song | Thomas Rhett | 1956 | 78 | Take My Breath | The Weeknd | 1937 | 79 | If I Didn't Love You | Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood | 1932 | 80 | Happier Than Ever | Billie Eilish | 1926 | 81 | No More Parties | Coi Leray ft. Lil Durk | 1918 | 82 | All I Want For Christmas Is You | Mariah Carey | 1916 | 83 | Cry Baby | Megan Thee Stallion ft. DaBaby | 1904 | 84 | Yonaguni | Bad Bunny | 1831 | 85 | Good Time | Niko Moon | 1815 | 86 | Knife Talk | Drake ft. 21 Savage & Project Pat | 1806 | 87 | pov | Ariana Grande | 1793 | 88 | Just The Way | Parmalee x Blanco Brown | 1779 | 89 | Arcade | Duncan Laurence | 1772 | 90 | Pepas | Farruko | 1772 | 91 | Throat Baby (Go Baby) | BRS Kash | 1708 | 91 | We're Good | Dua Lipa | 1708 | 93 | Hell Of A View | Eric Church | 1703 | 94 | Things A Man Oughta Know | Lainey Wilson | 1697 | 95 | Todo de Ti | Rauw Alejandro | 1676 | 96 | One Too Many | Keith Urban Duet With P!nk | 1667 | 97 | A-O-K | Tai Verdes | 1658 | 98 | Put Your Records On | Ritt Momney | 1654 | 99 | Single Saturday Night | Cole Swindell | 1648 | 100 | Goosebumps | Travis Scott & HVME | 1635 | 101 | Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. | Chase Rice ft. Florida Georgia Line | 1632 | 102 | Rockstar | DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch | 1627 | 103 | Damage | H.E.R. | 1620 | 104 | Before You Go | Lewis Capaldi | 1611 | 105 | Settling Down | Miranda Lambert | 1585 | 106 | Girls Want Girls | Drake ft. Lil Baby | 1584 | 107 | Gone | Dierks Bentley | 1583 | 108 | Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree | Brenda Lee | 1571 | 109 | More Than My Hometown | Morgan Wallen | 1550 | 109 | Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90's | Sam Hunt | 1550 |
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Post by reputainbow on Oct 28, 2021 2:46:07 GMT -5
{Week 50}KEY: 1100+: Locked | 1000+: Very Likely/Near Locked | 900+: Likely | 800+: Possibly | 700+: In Consideration
1 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 6436 2 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd/Ariana Grande) 5045 3 Mood (24Kgoldn/Iann Dior) 4830 4 Blinding Lights (The Weeknd) 4667 5 Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 4191 6 Drivers License (Olivia Rodrigo) 4018 7 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 3832 8 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 3796 9 Peaches (Justin Bieber/Giveon/Daniel Caesar) 3618 10 Butter (BTS) 3526 11 Montero (Call Me By Your Name) (Lil Nas X) 3456 12 Positions (Ariana Grande) 3133 13 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 3100 14 Deja Vu (Olivia Rodrigo) 2763 15 Go Crazy (Chris Brown/Young Thug) 2762 16 34+35 (Ariana Grande) 2743 17 Without You (Kid Laroi) 2607 18 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 2568 19 Forever After All (Luke Combs) 2513 20 What You Know Bout Love (Pop Smoke) 2511 21 Up (Cardi B) 2508 22 Astronaut In the Ocean (Masked Wolf) 2496 23 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 2462 24 My Ex's Best Friend (Machine Gun Kelly/Blackbear) 2449 25 Dakiti (Bad Bunny/Jhay Cortez) 2216 26 Best Friend (Saweetie/Doja Cat) 2209 27 Therefore I Am (Billie Eilish) 2190 28 RAPSTAR (Polo G) 2183 29 Heartbreak Anniversary (Giveon) 2126 30 For the Night (Pop Smoke) 2012 31 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 2011 32 Holy (Justin Bieber/Chance the Rapper) 1987 33 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 1942 34 Calling My Phone (Lil Tjay/6LACK) 1890 35 Beautiful Mistakes (Maroon 5/Megan Thee Stallion) 1830 36 On Me (Lil Baby) 1759 37 You Broke Me First (Tate McRae) 1744 38 I Hope (Gabby Barrett/Charlie Puth) 1726 39 Laugh Now Cry Later (Drake/Lil Durk) 1690 40 Dynamite (BTS) 1637 41 Back In Blood (Pooh Shiesty/Lil Durk) 1612 42 Wockesha (Moneybagg Yo) 1567 43 Traitor (Olivia Rodrigo) 1561 44 Beat Box (Spotemgottem) 1547 45 Wants and Needs (Drake/Lil Baby) 1503 46 Telepatía (Kali Uchis) 1499 47 Good Days (SZA) 1499 48 Lemonade (Internet Money/Gunna/Toliver) 1445 49 Willow (Taylor Swift) 1424 50 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 1411 51 Every Chance I Get (DJ Khaled/Lil Baby/Lil Durk) 1405 52 Bang! (AJR) 1404 53 Starting Over (Chris Stapleton) 1395 54 Whoopty (CJ) 1388 55 You're Mines Still (Yung Bleu/Drake) 1384 56 Leave Before You Love Me (Marshmello/Jonas Brothers) 1376 57 Better Together (Luke Combs) 1344 58 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 1318 59 Body (Megan Thee Stallion) 1301 60 Late at Night (Roddy Ricch) 1250 61 The Good Ones (Gabby Barrett) 1249 62 Lonely (Justin Bieber/Benny Blanco) 1235 63 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 1210 64 Streets (Doja Cat) 1205 65 Thot s**t (Megan Thee Stallion) 1166 66 Famous Friends (Chris Young/Kane Brown) 1160 67 What's Next (Drake) 1135 68 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 1129 69 Beggin' (Maneskin) 1125 70 Glad You Exist (Dan + Shay) 1123 71 Anyone (Justin Bieber) 1123 72 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 1110 73 Lil Bit (Nelly/Florida Georgia Line) 1106 74 Chasing After You (Ryan Hurd/Maren Morris) 1073 75 Time Today (Moneybagg Yo) 1067 76 Kings & Queens (Ava Max) 1044 77 Track Star (Mooski) 1038 78 Cry Baby (Megan Thee Stallion/DaBaby) 1014 79 What's Your Country Song (Thomas Rhett) 1011 80 No More Parties (Coi Leray) 998 81 Good Time (Niko Moon) 945 82 POV (Ariana Grande) 938 83 Take My Breath (The Weeknd) 920 84 Yonaguni (Bad Bunny) 910 85 Just the Way (Parmalee/Blanco Brown) 909 86 We're Good (Dua Lipa) 908 87 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 907 88 Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish) 884 89 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 882 90 Rockstar (DaBaby/Roddy Ricch) 872 91 Arcade (Duncan Laurence) 862 92 Before You Go (Lewis Capaldi) 861 93 Throat Baby (Brs Kash) 853 94 Things a Man Oughta Know (Lainey Wilson) 847 95 Todo de Ti (Rauw Alejandro) 846 96 Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (Chase Rice/Florida Georgia Line) 842 97 Hell of a View (Eric Church) 828 98 Put Your Records On (Ritt Momney) 824 99 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 820 100 Single Saturday Night (Cole Swindell) 818
101 Goosebumps (Travis Scott/HVME) 815 102 Damage (H.E.R.) 805 103 More Than My Hometown (Morgan Wallen) 805 104 Pepas (Farruko) 803 105 Settling Down (Miranda Lambert) 785 106 Breaking Up Was Easy In the 90's (Sam Hunt) 770 107 Whole Lotta Money (BiA/Nicki Minaj) 763 108 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 746 109 Gone (Dierks Bentley) 743 110 Tombstone (Rod Wave) 738 111 Down to One (Luke Bryan) 737 112 What's Poppin (Jack Harlow) 734 113 A-O-K (Tai Verdes) 726 114 My Life (J. Cole/21 Savage/Morray) 723 115 One Too Many (Keith Urban/Pink) 717 116 Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat) (Jawsh 685/Jason Derulo) 712 117 Made for You (Jake Owen) 711 118 Waves (Luke Bryan) 708 119 WAP (Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion) 706
121 Cold Beer Calling My Name (Jameson Rodgers/Luke Combs) 696 123 Girls Want Girls (Drake/Lil Baby) 687 124 Wild Side (Normani/Cardi B) 655 133 Fair Trade (Drake/Travis Scott) 610 134 I Was On a Boat That Day (Old Dominion) 604 139 Hurricane (Kanye West) 575 140 Love Again (Dua Lipa) 565 144 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 557 145 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 556 155 2055 (Sleepy Hollow) 517 157 My Universe (Coldplay/BTS) 510 159 Memory I Don't Mess With (Lee Brice) 502 161 Family Ties (Baby Keem/Kendrick Lamar) 494 162 Memory (Kane Brown/blackbear) 490 170 My Boy (Elvie Shane) 469 177 Volvi (Aventura/Bad Bunny) 449 179 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 433 180 Champagne Poetry (Drake) 431 182 Sharing Locations (Meek Mill/Lil Baby/Lil Durk) 424 185 Gyalis (Capella Grey) 410 189 That's What I Want (Lil Nas X) 400 192 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 388 194 Cold as You (Luke Combs) 370 198 Woman (Doja Cat) 352 199 No Friends In the Industry (Drake) 349
{Formula #2}1 Levitating (Dua Lipa) 11774 2 Save Your Tears (The Weeknd/Ariana Grande) 9265 3 Blinding Lights (The Weeknd) 8611 4 Mood (24Kgoldn/Iann Dior) 8451 5 Leave the Door Open (Silk Sonic/Bruno Mars/Anderson .Paak) 7554 6 Kiss Me More (Doja Cat/SZA) 7031 7 Good 4 U (Olivia Rodrigo) 6895 8 Drivers License (Olivia Rodrigo) 6883 9 Peaches (Justin Bieber/Giveon/Daniel Caesar) 6574 10 Montero (Call Me By Your Name) (Lil Nas X) 6313 11 Butter (BTS) 5878.6 12 Positions (Ariana Grande) 5703 13 Stay (Kid Laroi/Justin Bieber) 5270 14 Go Crazy (Chris Brown/Young Thug) 5108 15 Deja Vu (Olivia Rodrigo) 5071 16 34+35 (Ariana Grande) 4973 17 Without You (Kid Laroi) 4746.8 18 Forever After All (Luke Combs) 4729.6 19 Bad Habits (Ed Sheeran) 4714 20 Astronaut In the Ocean (Masked Wolf) 4602 21 What You Know Bout Love (Pop Smoke) 4545.6 22 Heat Waves (Glass Animals) 4538.2 23 Up (Cardi B) 4511 24 My Ex's Best Friend (Machine Gun Kelly/Blackbear) 4354.4 25 Therefore I Am (Billie Eilish) 4062.8 26 Dakiti (Bad Bunny/Jhay Cortez) 3938 27 RAPSTAR (Polo G) 3937 28 Best Friend (Saweetie/Doja Cat) 3889 29 Heartbreak Anniversary (Giveon) 3803.6 30 For the Night (Pop Smoke) 3691 31 Holy (Justin Bieber/Chance the Rapper) 3640 32 Industry Baby (Lil Nas X/Jack Harlow) 3621 33 Fancy Like (Walker Hayes) 3572.2 34 Calling My Phone (Lil Tjay/6LACK) 3475 35 Beautiful Mistakes (Maroon 5/Megan Thee Stallion) 3237.8 36 I Hope (Gabby Barrett/Charlie Puth) 3156 37 You Broke Me First (Tate McRae) 3133.6 38 On Me (Lil Baby) 3079.6 39 Laugh Now Cry Later (Drake/Lil Durk) 3058 40 Back In Blood (Pooh Shiesty/Lil Durk) 2959.2 41 Dynamite (BTS) 2911 42 Beat Box (Spotemgottem) 2836.8 43 Traitor (Olivia Rodrigo) 2733 44 Wockesha (Moneybagg Yo) 2722.4 45 Good Days (SZA) 2684.8 46 Wants and Needs (Drake/Lil Baby) 2622 47 Whoopty (CJ) 2606.8 48 Lemonade (Internet Money/Gunna/Toliver) 2599 49 Telepatía (Kali Uchis) 2593.6 50 You Right (Doja Cat/The Weeknd) 2584 51 Bang! (AJR) 2506 52 Willow (Taylor Swift) 2482.4 53 You're Mines Still (Yung Bleu/Drake) 2476.8 54 Every Chance I Get (DJ Khaled/Lil Baby/Lil Durk) 2463.8 55 Leave Before You Love Me (Marshmello/Jonas Brothers) 2463.8 56 Glad You Exist (Dan + Shay) 2461.6 57 Starting Over (Chris Stapleton) 2448 58 Body (Megan Thee Stallion) 2445.8 59 Need to Know (Doja Cat) 2420.6 60 Better Together (Luke Combs) 2400 61 The Good Ones (Gabby Barrett) 2333.4 62 Lonely (Justin Bieber/Benny Blanco) 2237.8 63 Chasing After You (Ryan Hurd/Maren Morris) 2220.8 64 Streets (Doja Cat) 2212.2 65 Lil Bit (Nelly/Florida Georgia Line) 2204 66 Famous Friends (Chris Young/Kane Brown) 2198 67 Late at Night (Roddy Ricch) 2190.2 68 What's Next (Drake) 2185 69 Thot s**t (Megan Thee Stallion) 2166.6 70 Way 2 Sexy (Drake/Future/Young Thug) 2158 71 Essence (Wizkid/Tems/Justin Bieber) 2128.8 72 One Too Many (Keith Urban/Pink) 2049.6 73 Anyone (Justin Bieber) 2036.6 74 Beggin' (Maneskin) 2004.6 75 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 1951 76 Track Star (Mooski) 1910.6 77 Arcade (Duncan Laurence) 1909.2 78 What's Your Country Song (Thomas Rhett) 1908.2 79 Time Today (Moneybagg Yo) 1888.4 80 No More Parties (Coi Leray) 1878 81 Yonaguni (Bad Bunny) 1875 82 Kings & Queens (Ava Max) 1866 83 Good Time (Niko Moon) 1860 84 Cry Baby (Megan Thee Stallion/DaBaby) 1850.2 85 Just the Way (Parmalee/Blanco Brown) 1765.2 86 Hell of a View (Eric Church) 1758.6 87 POV (Ariana Grande) 1755.8 88 Tombstone (Rod Wave) 1754 89 Single Saturday Night (Cole Swindell) 1728 90 Throat Baby (Brs Kash) 1725.2 91 Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen. (Chase Rice/Florida Georgia Line) 1721.2 92 Things a Man Oughta Know (Lainey Wilson) 1714.6 93 Put Your Records On (Ritt Momney) 1713.8 94 Todo de Ti (Rauw Alejandro) 1697 95 Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home) (Elle King/Miranda Lambert) 1695.2 96 We're Good (Dua Lipa) 1658.4 97 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 1657 98 Goosebumps (Travis Scott/HVME) 1650.2 99 Take My Breath (The Weeknd) 1639 100 Gone (Dierks Bentley) 1634.4 108 Happier Than Ever (Billie Eilish) 1566 109 If I Didn't Love You (Jason Aldean/Carrie Underwood) 1562.6 111 Knife Talk (Drake/21 Savage/Project Pat) 1511 117 Pepas (Farruko) 1433.8 118 Cold Beer Calling My Name (Jameson Rodgers/Luke Combs) 1421.2 119 Whole Lotta Money (BiA/Nicki Minaj) 1421 121 A-O-K (Tai Verdes) 1417.2 128 I Was On a Boat That Day (Old Dominion) 1286.8 130 Wild Side (Normani/Cardi B) 1268 135 Girls Want Girls (Drake/Lil Baby) 1248 136 My Boy (Elvie Shane) 1241.2 145 Sand In My Boots (Morgan Wallen) 1178.4 151 Love Again (Dua Lipa) 1147.2 154 Memory (Kane Brown/blackbear) 1132 157 Fair Trade (Drake/Travis Scott) 1107 158 You Should Probably Leave (Chris Stapleton) 1105 159 2055 (Sleepy Hollow) 1102.4 161 Memory I Don't Mess With (Lee Brice) 1077 166 Shivers (Ed Sheeran) 1044 169 Hurricane (Kanye West) 1018.6 172 Volvi (Aventura/Bad Bunny) 985.8 185 Gyalis (Capella Grey) 930.4 187 Buy Dirt (Jordan Davis/Luke Bryan) 906.2 189 My Universe (Coldplay/BTS) 894 192 Woman (Doja Cat) 872 193 Family Ties (Baby Keem/Kendrick Lamar) 863.4 196 Champagne Poetry (Drake) 852.2 198 Cold as You (Luke Combs) 844 199 You Time (Scotty McCreery) 842.8
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smallbubble
New Member
Joined: September 2019
Posts: 70
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Post by smallbubble on Oct 28, 2021 3:36:26 GMT -5
Looks like Adele's new single might even miss this year end (or at most be in the bottom 20) after all with underwhelming streaming longevity in US... It won't be very high on 2022 year end either as huge radio debut usually leads to poor radio longevity. Guess most people listen to this a few times on the initial release to try to convince themselves to love it, In the end they just ditch it from their playlist cuz the song was not that good (for Adele's standard) after all
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
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Posts: 10,767
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 28, 2021 4:57:02 GMT -5
Assume that the 2022 chart year starts by the November 20, 2021 chart, and that same chart week is the Ed Sheeran "=" album week, then "Bad Habits" would be a surefire re-entry, and while "Shivers" won't sneak in 2021 YE, it would be possible by 2022
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gikem
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Posts: 3,813
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Post by gikem on Oct 28, 2021 5:24:01 GMT -5
Assume that the 2022 chart year starts by the November 20, 2021 chart, and that same chart week is the Ed Sheeran "=" album week, then "Bad Habits" would be a surefire re-entry, and while "Shivers" won't sneak in 2021 YE, it would be possible by 2022 I thought the album was coming out this Friday, which means it impacts the 11/13 chart, the presumed last week of the 2021 tracking year? Or did I miss something and he delayed it by a week due to his recent COVID diagnosis?
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Unsteady Weirdo
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Posts: 10,767
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 28, 2021 7:16:15 GMT -5
Assume that the 2022 chart year starts by the November 20, 2021 chart, and that same chart week is the Ed Sheeran "=" album week, then "Bad Habits" would be a surefire re-entry, and while "Shivers" won't sneak in 2021 YE, it would be possible by 2022 I thought the album was coming out this Friday, which means it impacts the 11/13 chart, the presumed last week of the 2021 tracking year? Or did I miss something and he delayed it by a week due to his recent COVID diagnosis? Okay I think I'm in the wrong here, I presumably over-estimated the tracking week possibility for the "=" album week. My apologies there, instead I would think the album effect week (11-13) would help "Bad Habits" possibly sneak in to Top 20, but "Shivers" would be borderline to miss or sneak in. Though that will definitely help their possibility to be in the 2022 YE.
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Oct 28, 2021 7:25:42 GMT -5
Let's make a prediction for the "Yearly unexpected song that makes the year end which probably shouldn't" for 2021. I am going to guess 'Before You Go' since it is the right amount of very old and very bad and will make almost everyone mad if it made it in over Happier than Ever or Take My Breath
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
Unsteady Weirdo
𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 10,767
My Charts
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Oct 28, 2021 7:28:32 GMT -5
Let's make a prediction for the "Yearly unexpected song that makes the year end which probably shouldn't" for 2021. I am going to guess 'Before You Go' since it is the right amount of very old and very bad and will make almost everyone mad if it made it in over Happier than Ever or Take My Breath Or can be "ROCKSTAR" as well Worst case scenario: Both songs pull a "Mi Gente"/"Believer" from 2018 YE and sneaks in the Bottom 10
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Lost In Musical Reverie
2x Platinum Member
"Everything seems nice, but if you look twice, you can see it's all lies"
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 2,297
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Oct 28, 2021 9:43:28 GMT -5
Let's make a prediction for the "Yearly unexpected song that makes the year end which probably shouldn't" for 2021. I am going to guess 'Before You Go' since it is the right amount of very old and very bad and will make almost everyone mad if it made it in over Happier than Ever or Take My Breath Or can be "ROCKSTAR" as well Worst case scenario: Both songs pull a "Mi Gente"/"Believer" from 2018 YE and sneaks in the Bottom 10 Don't give Billboard any ideas...
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,088
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Post by inverse on Oct 28, 2021 14:40:52 GMT -5
Let's make a prediction for the "Yearly unexpected song that makes the year end which probably shouldn't" for 2021. I am going to guess 'Before You Go' since it is the right amount of very old and very GOOD and will make almost everyone CELEBRATE if it made it in over Happier than Ever or Take My Breath Got a bad feeling it's gonna be Breaking Up Was Easy In The 90's
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Lost In Musical Reverie
2x Platinum Member
"Everything seems nice, but if you look twice, you can see it's all lies"
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 2,297
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Oct 28, 2021 15:39:02 GMT -5
I would love for it to be "Damage". Not replacing either "Take My Breath" or "Happier Than Ever", of course - but any of the unholy trifecta of "Just The Way"/"Put Your Records On"/"Throat Baby". Or maybe "Single Saturday Night".
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atg
2x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 2,995
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Post by atg on Oct 28, 2021 20:26:00 GMT -5
Let's make a prediction for the "Yearly unexpected song that makes the year end which probably shouldn't" for 2021. I am going to guess 'Before You Go' since it is the right amount of very old and very bad and will make almost everyone mad if it made it in over Happier than Ever or Take My Breath Or can be "ROCKSTAR" as well Worst case scenario: Both songs pull a "Mi Gente"/"Believer" from 2018 YE and sneaks in the Bottom 10 If both HTE and TMB makes it, it would be more impactful as both artists have been underperforming with these singles and can do much more better and it doesn’t help that some people on here think that both are flops but just barely making the YE would prove them wrong. If Capaldi and Dababy takes up their slots that’s going to be even more unforgivable than the 2017 leftovers that made it onto the 2018 YE.
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n13l5
New Member
I like to follow the billboard chart predictions on here
Joined: November 2017
Posts: 122
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Post by n13l5 on Oct 29, 2021 11:14:47 GMT -5
I remember being sad that it fell off too early to make the YE This is one reason I try not to care about the year end too much anymore. I still find it very interesting to follow but tbh life gets better if you don't let it be the sole determinant of what counts as a real hit, like Diamonds had just as much relevance in this timeline being the 200th biggest song of 2020 and the 140th biggest song of 2021 as it would have had if it had been the 89th biggest song of 2021 Yeah dont worry im able to take a step back and see that this all doesnt mean that much, its just that hit songs that dont make any year end list tend to easier get forgotten over time
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Post by nathanalbright on Oct 29, 2021 15:42:52 GMT -5
Yes, at the very least a song on such a popular list is something that at least some people will look up and perhaps stream if they have forgotten it and it strikes their curiosity. A song not on a YE list has just one fewer way to jog someone's memory of its existence.
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Post by twelvevinylrecords on Oct 29, 2021 17:09:11 GMT -5
Yes, at the very least a song on such a popular list is something that at least some people will look up and perhaps stream if they have forgotten it and it strikes their curiosity. A song not on a YE list has just one fewer way to jog someone's memory of its existence. Here's the thing: what percentage of people look at Billboard YE lists still? Maybe .01%?
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Post by nathanalbright on Oct 29, 2021 17:19:41 GMT -5
I don't know how many people do; I know I look at them relatively often sometimes to listen to them and review the year as a whole.
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gikem
3x Platinum Member
Joined: October 2020
Posts: 3,813
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Post by gikem on Oct 29, 2021 17:26:14 GMT -5
And let’s not forget all the iconic ‘90s radio hits that didn’t make a YE because they didn’t chart at all (or in the case of Iris, charted at the tail end of its run). Thank goodness for Canada’s RPM charts showing us what we missed out on, even if they were just as flawed as Billboard.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Oct 29, 2021 18:02:41 GMT -5
Being on the year end doesn’t mean you’ll be remembered. Even by chart nerds. When was the last time you thought about The Middle? Or Close to Me? Or Sweet But Psycho? Or Never Be the Same? Or Suge? Or even the remix of Roses? All of those songs were pretty big hits over the past three years (except for Close to Me, which was a mid sized hit), and most of the artists have charted this year. Conversely, songs like Juice, Lover, Physical, Sit Next to Me, Boy With Luv and Bloody Valentine are all way more remembered today than any of the songs I listed earlier.
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mms82
Platinum Member
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Joined: January 2019
Posts: 1,249
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Post by mms82 on Oct 29, 2021 18:06:58 GMT -5
Yes, at the very least a song on such a popular list is something that at least some people will look up and perhaps stream if they have forgotten it and it strikes their curiosity. A song not on a YE list has just one fewer way to jog someone's memory of its existence. Here's the thing: what percentage of people look at Billboard YE lists still? Maybe .01%? Next to nobody seeks them out, but I’m sure people Google things like top songs 2014 and the top result is usually the Wikipedia page with the billboard year end list
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Post by PositivityMaster48 on Oct 29, 2021 20:37:40 GMT -5
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Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2021 1:06:14 GMT -5
Looks like Adele's new single might even miss this year end (or at most be in the bottom 20) after all with underwhelming streaming longevity in US... It won't be very high on 2022 year end either as huge radio debut usually leads to poor radio longevity. Guess most people listen to this a few times on the initial release to try to convince themselves to love it, In the end they just ditch it from their playlist cuz the song was not that good (for Adele's standard) after all ...Could it be caught between years?
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Post by After Minutes on Oct 30, 2021 1:29:36 GMT -5
Being on the year end doesn’t mean you’ll be remembered. Even by chart nerds. When was the last time you thought about The Middle? Or Close to Me? Or Sweet But Psycho? Or Never Be the Same? Or Suge? Or even the remix of Roses? All of those songs were pretty big hits over the past three years (except for Close to Me, which was a mid sized hit), and most of the artists have charted this year. Conversely, songs like Juice, Lover, Physical, Sit Next to Me, Boy With Luv and Bloody Valentine are all way more remembered today than any of the songs I listed earlier. Are they? I get the point but except for Close To Me, Juice and Physical I'd say that the songs that got on the YE are more remembered
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