Billboard Hot 100: 12/26/2020

[kacpi]

Dec 11, 2020 9:26:35 GMT -5 Groovy said:

So what are the odds that willow will have some longevity.

I see it going the "cardigan" route - debuting at #1 (or top 5, at least), staying on the chart for 10-12 weeks and then falling off the chart. It feels like Taylor's more focused on promoting the album than her singles but she surely has some tricks up her sleeve to get willow to the top.

[amid]

Poor Kid Cudi

First, Adventures of Moon Man and Slim Shady released on the same week as biggest album bomb of the year and thus got blocked from top 15

And now MOTM III will get blocked from what might have been a #1 on the BB200

[Abbaschand]

Dec 11, 2020 9:58:25 GMT -5 amid said:

Poor Kid Cudi

First, Adventures of Moon Man and Slim Shady released on the same week as biggest album bomb of the year and thus got blocked from top 15

And now MOTM III will get blocked from what might have been a #1 on the BB200

At least he had THE SCOTTS.

[wavey.]

Cudi has always been consistent either way(sans the few side projects he did). It should open decent enough. His fanbase is dedicated.

[fridayteenage]

Dec 11, 2020 9:16:39 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

Dec 11, 2020 7:46:01 GMT -5 shayonce said:

Taylor's webstore - "ships in 3-4 weeks"

Target - Release Date: Dec 18, 2020

It says that on her international stores but not the US store. It just says "not expected to arrive by December 25th," which could mean "ships on December 17, the last day of tracking."

They're probably prioritizing US orders to get those first week sales.

I'm in California.

It says ships in 3-4 weeks. Checked my emails; Folklore took 27 days, so.

[Groovy]

Along with I Hope being pulled from pop radio, I heard Dynamite and Be Like That also got pulled.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Dec 11, 2020 8:50:54 GMT -5 Harx said:

So... besides Dynamite, do BTS have any actual legit hits in the US at this point?

I think "Boy With Luv" could be considered a minor hit, but otherwise, "Dynamite" is definitely their biggest and most omnipresent song among demographics beyond just pop/kpop enthusiasts, and the language was definitely a contributing factor.

[tommy1860]

Dec 11, 2020 9:26:35 GMT -5 Groovy said:

So what are the odds that willow will have some longevity.

I could see it going the Cardigan route and not sticking around that long, but I think it actually has a better chance of sticking around than Cardigan. It has more of a traditional song structure than Cardigan, so I could see radio liking it better, but I’m definitely not sure one way or another.

[phieaglesfan712]

AIWFCIY is probably too strong for willow to debut at #1. Maybe willow snatches RATCT's wig.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 11, 2020 10:23:24 GMT -5 tommy1860 said:

Dec 11, 2020 9:26:35 GMT -5 Groovy said:

So what are the odds that willow will have some longevity.

I could see it going the Cardigan route and not sticking around that long, but I think it actually has a better chance of sticking around than Cardigan. It has more of a traditional song structure than Cardigan, so I could see radio liking it better, but I’m definitely not sure one way or another.

I'd say "cardigan" has more of a traditional structure? Neither is overly odd, though, in terms of structure.

[tommy1860]

Dec 11, 2020 10:31:38 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 11, 2020 10:23:24 GMT -5 tommy1860 said:

I could see it going the Cardigan route and not sticking around that long, but I think it actually has a better chance of sticking around than Cardigan. It has more of a traditional song structure than Cardigan, so I could see radio liking it better, but I’m definitely not sure one way or another.

I'd say "cardigan" has more of a traditional structure? Neither is overly odd, though, in terms of structure.

Maybe I’m phrasing it wrong, but I always thought Cardigan didn’t really have the most distinctive chorus, I could never tell what part it was supposed to be (could just be me though). I feel Willow’s chorus does stand out more, which radio likes. Plus it will fit better in December than Cardigan did in August.

[lazer]

Willow does sound catchier than Cardigan. It sticks in the head more.

[Henry Suárez]

This is the week AIWFCIY goes #1? hopefully will spend at least 2 weeks at #1!

[jenglisbe]

Dec 11, 2020 13:24:39 GMT -5 Henry Suárez said:

This is the week AIWFCIY? hopefully will spend at least 2 weeks at #1!

Apparently the race is super tight with "Mood." I'm not sure what happened. Then the next chart it has to contend with the new Taylor Swift single.

[Choco]

I'd be fine with AIWFCIY getting blocked this year tbh. It can always go back to #1in a year anyways.

[kingvavis]

Has the change to UGC streams have a big impact on XMAS songs?

[kalmanta]

Dec 11, 2020 13:34:18 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Has the change to UGC streams have a big impact on XMAS songs?

Wait, what changed exactly?

[owenlovesmusic]

the charts are such a joke right now

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

Dec 11, 2020 13:34:18 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Has the change to UGC streams have a big impact on XMAS songs?

What change?

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

I think kingavis is referring to the change made early this year where streams coming from TikTok compilation videos and stuff wouldn't be counted anymore.
It had quite a significant impact on "Old Town Road", "bad guy", and "Ran$om" in particular.

[strongerq]

Dec 11, 2020 13:58:21 GMT -5 Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815... said:

Dec 11, 2020 13:34:18 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Has the change to UGC streams have a big impact on XMAS songs?

What change?

Well in January Billboard stopped counting non-song UGC & logged out views.

In September they stopped counting UGC altogether:

Note: Effective with this week's charts (dated Sept. 19), YouTube song UGC (user-generated content) will no longer factor into Billboard surveys.
The removal of song UGC will align all streaming content among Billboard's songs and albums charts, and the newly-launched Billboard Global 200 and Billboard Global Excl. U.S. songs charts, to include only official audio and video streams. The change follows the removal of non-song UGC video content from the Hot 100 and other songs charts in January and will result in minimal changes in rank, especially in the top half of the Hot 100.

Link: article

[gikem]

^Honestly, this might explain why chart points have been so weak in general the past few months, alongside the impacts of the worsening pandemic and Christmas music.

[reputainbow]

i'm not expecting "willow" to go #1 tbh. as i learned with "cardigan", i mainly care about longevity... so it's not a huge priority.

[After Minutes]

While Evermore will obviously have the bigger peak, I think that Cudi will secure more stability and probably a hit with Show Out

[m450n]

Ya'll were the same people who said cardigan wouldn't go #1 till like Wednesday.

[lurker2]

Dec 11, 2020 15:14:03 GMT -5 m450n said:

Ya'll were the same people who said cardigan wouldn't go #1 till like Wednesday.

That only happened because Swifties saw those posts on Twitter and mass-bought.

[Choco]

Dec 11, 2020 9:26:35 GMT -5 Groovy said:

So what are the odds that willow will have some longevity.

I think low. She will probably do slightly less numbers overall this time around, and radio is probably not gonna get "willow" much higher than "cardigan".

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Dec 11, 2020 14:26:22 GMT -5 gikem said:

^Honestly, this might explain why chart points have been so weak in general the past few months, alongside the impacts of the worsening pandemic and Christmas music.

Even if UGC still counted probably the song that would have benefited most from it would have been Life is Good. It was still #2 in US Top Songs last week, in its 47th week, but both it and the #1 had less the 10 million weekly views which is quite low.

[phieaglesfan712]

lol at BTS - Dynamite (Holiday Remix)

I guess this means it's going to make 20 weeks before it goes recurrent.

[kierz7]

Dec 11, 2020 16:52:03 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

lol at BTS - Dynamite (Holiday Remix)

I guess this means it's going to make 20 weeks before it goes recurrent.

💀