Billboard Hot 100: 08/21/2021

[85la]

Aug 9, 2021 15:59:25 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Aug 9, 2021 14:17:50 GMT -5 85la said:

Yes, but as was said earlier, this is not the case with all artists, every artist's success and fan interaction is different, and for the Weeknd IN GENERAL, overexposure and charting multiple songs highly at once does not seem to work for him.

Yes, every song isn't going to smash out the gate, and this will be a problem for him, since they seemed set to launch a massive new era with this. We have 3 solid days of data now, and with only a mildly solid opening day, it has decreased even more with each day, so this will be an uphill battle for him. It's not completely lost for him though. Despite releasing too soon, I think the best thing for him to do is just wait a bit with this, it just might take a while for it to catch on and for BL and SYT to die down more, and wait at least until November to release the album. I actually wouldn't scrape the song or try to pull a "Moonlight - Dangerous Woman" because that would look really bad, and it actually is a really good song and getting a lot of positive press/critic reaction that would be hard to top and recreate.

Blinding Lights is #36 on Spotify & #80 on Apple Music.
Save Your Tears is #26 on Spotify & #66 on Apple Music.

How exactly is he charting too many songs highly at once as an excuse for the weak streaming start?… He doesn’t even have 2 songs top 20 on Spotify.

Basically every single hit maker of today from Bieber/Olivia/Post/Cardi/Drake/Ariana/etc can have multiple big hits at once. I really don’t understand how you somehow think Weeknd is some special case with a group of fans that refuse to listen to multiple songs by him (especially when it’s already been pointed out he literally has had multiple hits at once before)…

Take My Breath sounds too similar to his last hits is honestly what is probably making it not stand out on first listen. Blinding Lights, In Your Eyes, and Save Your Tears were all consecutive 80s synth pop sounding singles. He followed it up with a lead single that is yet again the same thing. At some point is gets skippable.

You're completely leaving out the whole picture by only providing the Spotify and AM data for BL and SYT (and not mentioning You Right at all). I know you know that that does not include all metrics, and that when you do consider all metrics on the Hot 100, he has 3 songs in the top 20, which is pretty big, and his plate is still relatively full at the moment.

Hey, I mean, I have nothing against him charting huge multiple hits at once and TMB becoming a hit, that would be great if it did, I really like the song, but I'm just speaking from the numbers that have been coming in, and so far this week, they aren't looking too good for TMB. And yes, I do understand that he has placed multiple songs on the Hot 100 at once before, not denying that, but it has been nowhere near the level of Drake or Post, or even Ariana or Justin Bieber, who have all pushed multiple new singles at radio at relatively the same time and that have reached the top 10. But honestly even if all these other people were in the Weeknd's place, I wouldn't advise them to release either. Anyone can suffer the effects of overexposure and ill-timing.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[nathanalbright]

I'm not going to say I told you so, but...

[Caviar]

Is the extended out yet and labeled a flop?

[nathanalbright]

It comes out in about eleven minutes or so I'm guessing?

[phieaglesfan712]

Mark my words: SYT is going to be sacrificed on radio to make Take My Breath a hit.

[Caviar]

Its out.

[nathanalbright]

I figured it would come out at Midnight EDT.

[mylo]

Aug 9, 2021 23:05:25 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Mark my words: SYT is going to be sacrificed on radio to make Take My Breath a hit.

Good it is the superior song.
Also, the extended is 10 times better than the original and will (hopefully) be the version on the album

[kcdawg13]

The extended version sounds like the album opener

[Caviar]

It’s better than the original but the instrumental still isn’t utilized enough. But it works for the general public I suppose. I hope there’s an after dark extended version.

[thegreatdivine]

The Weeknd has now released:
- Take My Breath (single version)
- Take My Breath (instrumental)
- Take My Breath (extended version)

He also discounted the single, released a music video/lyric video and had a radio deal upon release.

It's very clear him and his team are pushing for the single to smash right out the gate.

There's also this. 

[nathanalbright]

No alternate cover version though.

[thegreatdivine]

^ don't speak too soon.

Also, just checked US Apple Music and Take My Breath is down to #10.

[nathanalbright]

Fair enough, perhaps I should say there is no alternate cover version yet.

[kcdawg13]

I swear they better get that #1 if they are pushing this hard

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/08/09

1(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating 91.55(-0.78)

2(=) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More (feat. SZA) 88.74(+0.24) +
3(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 87.68(+0.24) +

4(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 78.32(+0.68)
5(=) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 77.16(-0.37)
6(=) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 72.99(-0.10)
7(=) Justin Bieber - Peaches (feat. Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON) 60.75(-0.60)
8(=) The Weeknd & Ariana Grande - Save Your Tears (Remix) 57.68(-0.29)
9(=) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - Leave The Door Open 52.66(-0.45)
10(=) GIVĒON - Heartbreak Anniversary 49.12(-0.45)

21(+2) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 39.74(+1.15)

47(+5) Megan Thee Stallion - Thot Sh*t 23.96(+0.85)

60(+11) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak & Silk Sonic - Skate 20.26(+2.21)

71(+22) The Weeknd - Take My Breath 18.26(+3.20)

73(+6) Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - INDUSTRY BABY 18.16(+1.70)

95(+3) Jason Aldean & Carrie Underwood - If I Didn't Love You 14.51(+0.71)

-(-) Bazzi - I Like That 5.73(+0.73)

-(-) Kayla Nicole - Bundles f/Taylor Girlz 2.96(+0.92) +

[edward]

The "instrumental version" always look like a desperate move for me, but I guess in 2021 it's already a normal, common move. Hopefully artists and labels won't learn from BTS and start to release the alternate cover versions, that would be really embarrassing.

[Enigma.]

Aug 9, 2021 19:22:11 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Yeah, GP (general public, ^not you GP) really know (or care) that both SYT and BL are in the top 20 of the Hot 100 chart...an average listener probably left Blinding in 2020, and SYT like 2-3 weeks after the remix with Ari.

I honestly don't buy that s**t about the overexposure, especially if controlled by the radio. It's 2021, most people don't really care about the radio, and they listen to whatever they want.

also, like I said 2 days ago, it's still early to tell or know something, but I guess it's just in human nature to label everything immediately.

Dunno about that, BL was still a party favourite last Friday.

There are also at least a million people who listen to Shape of You daily.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 08/08/21

1(=) The Kid LAROI - STAY 1,848,906 (-176,101)
2(=) Lil Nas X - INDUSTRY BABY 1,583,227 (-167,072)
3(=) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever 1,234,807 (-147,808)
4(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 1,189,485 (-117,635)
5(+1) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More 986,748 (-103,962)
6(+1) Doja Cat - Need to Know 963,393 (-70,476)
7(-2) The Weeknd - Take My Breath 951,167 (-299,342)
8(+1) Doja Cat - Ain't Shit 764,462 (-62,498)
9(-1) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 756,283 (-109,058)
10(=) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 752,730 (-69,732)

Others:
11(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 751,559 (-68,895)
12(+1) Dua Lipa - Levitating 724,531 (-84,246)
13(+2) Sleepy Hallow - 2055 697,117 (-37,170)
14(=) Måneskin - Beggin' 684,589 (-77,349)
15(+1) Olivia Rodrigo - traitor 673,597 (-45,702)
16(+1) Polo G - RAPSTAR 665,134 (-48,982)
17(-5) Aventura, Bad Bunny - Volví 655,802 (-163,659)
18(=) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 630,439 (-45,616)
19(=) Justin Bieber - Peaches 534,950 (-61,818)
21(=) Megan Thee Stallion - Thot Shit 516,333 (-63,405)
22(+1) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 500,800 (-61,292)
23(-3) Jack Harlow, Pooh Shiesty - SUVs (Black on Black) 494,591 (-94,294)
24(+1) Post Malone - Motley Crew 474,478 (-58,003)
25(+1) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic - Leave the Door Open 469,468 (-50,803)
26(-2) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears Remix 468,668 (-71,497)
28(+4) Olivia Rodrigo - favorite crime 437,055 (-20,856)
29(-1) Bad Bunny - Yonaguni 427,776 (-60,140)
30(+4) Surf Curse - Freaks 426,354 (-13,024)
31(-2) Rauw Alejandro - Todo De Ti 424,835 (-57,852)
32(-2) The Kid LAROI - NOT SOBER 420,454 (-44,835)
33(-6) Lil Tecca - REPEAT IT 420,359 (-84,376)
37(-1) Doja Cat, The Weeknd - You Right 396,544 (-32,004)
38(+2) Olivia Rodrigo - happier 390,168 (-24,065)
40(+1) Olivia Rodrigo - brutal 386,770 (-24,658)
41(+3) Doja Cat - Woman 384,319 (-15,795)
42(=) Farruko - Pepas 384,248 (-26,633)
44(-6) Smiley - Over the Top 366,171 (-53,666)
45(-6) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic - Skate 365,172 (-52,189)
46(-3) DJ Khaled - EVERY CHANCE I GET 363,684 (-40,094)
47(+3) Giveon - Heartbreak Anniversary 358,315 (-22,819)
48(=) DaBaby - Ball If I Want To 357,999 (-31,649)
49(=) Måneskin - I WANNA BE YOUR SLAVE 356,474 (-29,328)
52(-7) Billie Eilish - NDA 352,323 (-44,509)
53(-1) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 346,108 (-23,627)
54(-3) BTS - Butter 342,485 (-32,062)
55(+4) PinkPantheress - Pain 342,202 (-4,453)
60(+2) Tai Verdes - A-O-K 315,179 (-24,245)
61(-4) Nessa Barrett - i hope ur miserable until ur dead 314,932 (-42,971)
62(+2) Tyler The Creator, YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Ty Dolla $ign - WUSYANAME 314,578 (-18,713)
63(-3) Kali Uchis - telepatía 312,449 (-29,062)
69(-6) Nelly, Florida Georgia Line - Lil Bit 299,110 (-29,062)
71(+2) DaBaby - Red Light Green Light 297,483 (-22,732)
73(-7) Marshmello - Leave Before You Love Me 295,673 (-34,473)
74(-20) blackbear - @ my worst 295,052 (-72,626)
79(+4) The Kid LAROI - WITHOUT YOU 279,106 (-20,741)
80(-3) BTS - Permission to Dance 273,804 (-31,471)
82(-4) Camila Cabello - Don't Go Yet 270,403 (-33,593)
87(-7) Billie Eilish - Lost Cause 261,424 (-39,516)
89(-7) Nio Garcia, J Balvin, Bad Bunny - AM Remix 259,963 (-40,270)
90(-9) Billie Eilish - Oxytocin 259,361 (-40,874)
91(+31) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 258,867 (+8,713)
93(=) Bo Burnham - Bezos I 257,105 (-20,490)
95(-10) KSI, Lil Wayne - Lose 255,679 (-34,994)
97(-11) Billie Eilish - Billie Bossa Nova 254,532 (-33,588)

101(+2) Roddy Ricch - Late At Night 251,084 (-19,116)
102(-12) BIA - WHOLE LOTTA MONEY Remix 250,578 (-30,585)
115(+4) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 238,918 (-18,595)
116(+21) Yot Club - YKWIM? 238,677 (-2,410)
117(+21) Ariana Grande - 7 rings 237,437 (-3,106)
122(-2) Lil Baby, Lil Durk - Hats Off 232,618 (-20,842)
131(-13) J Balvin, Maria Becerra - Qué Más Pues? 224,332 (-35,432)
132(-6) Dan + Shay - Glad You Exist 223,455 (-24,431)
133(-6) Sheff G - On Go 221,376 (-26,289)
136(-11) Elle King, Miranda Lambert - Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home) 220,913 (-27,085)
138(+22) Beach House - Space Song 219,148 (-2,463)
139(-6) Jason Aldean, Carrie Underwood - If I Didn't Love You 218,164 (-25,618)
147(-31) Ingrid Andress - Wishful Drinking 213,725 (-47,008)
159(+7) Bo Burnham - Welcome to the Internet 206,919 (-12,894)
168(-12) Dua Lipa - Love Again 204,038 (-20,887)
174(-3) Normani - Wild Side 200,928 (-17,483)
190(re-entry) Duncan Laurence - Arcade 191,824
191(-29) Mora, Bad Bunny, Sech - Volando Remix 191,800 (-29,129)
192(-42) YNW Melly - Best Friends 4L 191,598 (-39,635)
187(-7) Kane Brown, blackbear - Memory 193,226 (-20,026)
197(-95) Nas - Rare 189,900 (-80,623)

Total Streams for Save Your Tears: 707,586

[pokepikalem]

Aug 10, 2021 0:39:52 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I swear they better get that #1 if they are pushing this hard

There's no way this could debut at #1 right? STAY is leading in all metrics except maybe sales, and we're half way through the week. The Weeknd has no ARMY for a Thursday Rush Hour finish.

[BlueSwan]

Aug 9, 2021 18:17:02 GMT -5 goldentakes said:

Yeah fr, people gotta stop overreacting to this stuff. While I'm disappointed with how Take My Breath is performing so far (bc it's a legitimately great song), I think it's far too soon to call it a flop. My guess is that it'll stabilize down the line and probably end up having a Heartless type run, Although I do agree that Abel should have waited until 2022 to start his album roll out.

Yeah, I agree with basically all of this. By releasing TMB now with the same overall sound as AH, it feels like an extension of the AH era rather than the beginning of a new era. Like a one-off single, a soundtrack single, or a deluxe-album single type thing.

And yes, The Weeknd singles often have LEGS and only peak after a long time - see The Hills, Blinding Lights, Save Your Tears.

But I don't wanna make confident predictions here. After all, I predicted that "In Your Eyes" would be a HUGE smash and frankly still don't understand how it wasn't. Still my favourite AH song by far.

[After Minutes]

If TMB does underperform solidly (let's say it peaks outside the top 5 and charts less than 10 weeks in the top 10) the team might actually treat it as a stand-alone single. Abel has done that already, with King of The Fall being the lead into BBTM and Enemy serving as the lead into Kiss Land, with neither being actually included on the album's that they were supposed to hype. Their sound was transitional, it took elements from the era they preceded and followed.

It would be weird with how Abel is promoting it as the lead to a new era, but I could see it working if he titles the album anything else than "The Dawn" or "The Dawn is Coming". Then, as I've theorised, TMB would wipe off the attention from BL and SYT, and the proper rollout for the next era would begin sometime in February, I guess.

[iamsorare]

Apple music : #10 take my breath (-3)

[GP]

Aug 9, 2021 23:05:25 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Mark my words: SYT is going to be sacrificed on radio to make Take My Breath a hit.

what "sacrifice"? it's already going down for weeks on radio.

Lemme guess, you think the label will PULL Save Your Tears like they have that power and use it that often 

[violentdreams]

Aug 10, 2021 3:53:30 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

If TMB does underperform solidly (let's say it peaks outside the top 5 and charts less than 10 weeks in the top 10) the team might actually treat it as a stand-alone single. Abel has done that already, with King of The Fall being the lead into BBTM and Enemy serving as the lead into Kiss Land, with neither being actually included on the album's that they were supposed to hype. Their sound was transitional, it took elements from the era they preceded and followed.

It would be weird with how Abel is promoting it as the lead to a new era, but I could see it working if he titles the album anything else than "The Dawn" or "The Dawn is Coming". Then, as I've theorised, TMB would wipe off the attention from BL and SYT, and the proper rollout for the next era would begin sometime in February, I guess.

That wasn't the case for either of those songs, Enemy was intended for the Trilogy re-release but got released as a standalone instead (I'm assuming it got beat out by 28, Valerie, or Till Dawn), and King of the Fall was just a promotional single for the tour it was named after. Neither of them were presented as anything other than treats for the fans. Take My Breath has the industry machine behind it and Max Martin's name on it, it is the definitive lead and it will be treated as such no matter how shaky its chart run is, just as Heartless was. They'll probably move onto the next single fast if it doesn't catch on, but I don't see them decanonizing it from the album era or anything like that.

[Limited Edition]

Aug 10, 2021 1:21:00 GMT -5 edward said:

The "instrumental version" always look like a desperate move for me, but I guess in 2021 it's already a normal, common move. Hopefully artists and labels won't learn from BTS and start to release the alternate cover versions, that would be really embarrassing.

I think artists should always release instrumental versions, it should be the norm. You can hear things you wouldn't notice with the vocals. I hate it when some songs don't have official instrumentals

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Ditto artists having instrumental of singles available (it helps with video editing and mashup making lol) but also having extended versions. Sometimes radio edits are fine but sometimes a longer studio version makes a song better

[After Minutes]

Aug 10, 2021 5:10:39 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Aug 10, 2021 3:53:30 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

If TMB does underperform solidly (let's say it peaks outside the top 5 and charts less than 10 weeks in the top 10) the team might actually treat it as a stand-alone single. Abel has done that already, with King of The Fall being the lead into BBTM and Enemy serving as the lead into Kiss Land, with neither being actually included on the album's that they were supposed to hype. Their sound was transitional, it took elements from the era they preceded and followed.

It would be weird with how Abel is promoting it as the lead to a new era, but I could see it working if he titles the album anything else than "The Dawn" or "The Dawn is Coming". Then, as I've theorised, TMB would wipe off the attention from BL and SYT, and the proper rollout for the next era would begin sometime in February, I guess.

That wasn't the case for either of those songs, Enemy was intended for the Trilogy re-release but got released as a standalone instead (I'm assuming it got beat out by 28, Valerie, or Till Dawn), and King of the Fall was just a promotional single for the tour it was named after. Neither of them were presented as anything other than treats for the fans. Take My Breath has the industry machine behind it and Max Martin's name on it, it is the definitive lead and it will be treated as such no matter how shaky its chart run is, just as Heartless was. They'll probably move onto the next single fast if it doesn't catch on, but I don't see them decanonizing it from the album era or anything like that.

I'm not saying that either of them was the lead single for the album - they were stand-alone singles released between albums that bridged the sound of Trilogy and Kiss Land and Kiss Land/Trilogy and BBTM respectively, that weren't included for various reasons. TMB is clearly intended to be the lead single for the new album so I doubt that what I wrote will happen, though there is a precedent for these in-between era releases, and so far AH-The Dawn are the only eras without something connecting them. Trilogy and Kiss Land had Enemy, Kiss Land and BBTM had King of the Fall, BBTM and Starboy had Low Life, Starboy and AH had MDM. Though, if I had to guess, Abel treated Off The Table, You Right and Better Believe as the transition between both eras.

Also, in regards to Enemy - I've read that originally it was supposed to be included on the third disc, then Till Dawn came and Enemy got knocked off last-minute because it was going to replace D.D., nonetheless I am still waiting for it to be released

[thabb]

I'm a bit late to the conversation, but I don't think the concept of "overexposure" means "ew this is a Weeknd song? TURN THAT SH*T OFF!". To me it means something more like ambivalence and tepid responses to the announcement of a new promo cycle or new release from an artist. Something like, "oh, new Weeknd? okay…" instead of outright interest.