Billboard Hot 100: 10/02/2021

[iHype.]

So, this is interesting -- streaming for current music has actually PEAKED and is decreasing year to date.



It's odd that Billboard has not even talked about this and it's basically a hidden secret. This puts more perspective into why streaming numbers for hits are low. All that information about "more subscribers" and Spotify/Apple/etc gaining users does not mean much if people are actually streaming current music less. 

[imbondz]

Vinyl is outselling digital again. 😁

[nathanalbright]

I mostly stream catalog stuff, and I assume others do the same.

[iHype.]

Sept 17, 2021 21:55:52 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

I mostly stream catalog stuff, and I assume others do the same.

It makes sense, because well... there's so much more music in existence from 2019 and before then there is from 2020-2021. Now that streaming made it ALL equally accessible and whatnot it was bound for catalog to become the main consumption driver.

Which is also why I don't really get why older people and fans of veteran artists complain about streaming. It has made catalog music bigger than ever and more accessible than ever. Mariah is going #1 every year, Queen/Fleetwood Mac/MJ are staples in the album chart every week like its 1982, and most old music is moving more units than they have in years. 

Now hit albums/songs from the past are just going to accumulate millions and millions of units far after their peak/release. "Bohemian Rhapsody" went from being certified 5x Platinum in 2017 to being certified 10x Platinum in 2021. A hit song from 40+ years prior magically moving another 5 million copies would've been pretty unimaginable 10 or 20 years ago. 

[nathanalbright]

I am a bit of an oldhead myself, and I don't complain about streaming, except when Spotify crashes my computer when I'm halfway through an album by the Bee Gees or Peter Cetera or someone else like that.

[fridayteenage]

1989's power.

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 17, 2021 14:32:50 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Sept 17, 2021 7:39:30 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

8+ hours since the release of Montero and Lil Nas X currently has 9 songs in the top 200 of the US Apple Music Song Chart, while the album is #3 on the US Apple Music Album Chart behind Certified Lover Boy & Donda.

Current Positions:
#13. Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow)
#66. Montero (Call Me By Your Name)
#78. Scoop (feat. Doja Cat)
#82. Dead Right Now
#84. That's What I Want
#89. Dolla Sign Slime
#142. One of Me (feat. Elton John)
#181. The Art of Realization
#194. Lost in the Citadel

Massive gains should happen in the next 6-12 hours.

Current Positions (6 hours later):
#13 (=). Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow)
#31 (+53). That's What I Want

#38 (+28). Montero (Call Me By Your Name)
#42 (+36). Scoop (feat. Doja Cat)
#45 (+37). Dead Right Now 
#46 (+43). Dolla Sign Slime (feat. Megan Thee Stallion)
#60 (+82). One of Me (feat. Elton John)
#72 (+109). The Art of Realization

#80. Tales of Dominica
#75 (+119). Lost in the Citadel

#91. Sun Goes Down

#107. Am I Dreaming (feat. Miley Cyrus)
#110. Don't Want It 
#115. Void

#146. Life After Salem


The album is also now #2 on US Apple Music. 

Current Positions (8 hours later/24 hours since the start of the tracking week):
#7 (+6). Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow)

#14 (+17). That's What I Want
#19 (+22). Scoop (feat. Doja Cat)
#20 (+26). Dolla Sign Slime (feat. Megan Thee Stallion)
#22 (+23). Dead Right Now

#31 (+7). Montero (Call Me By Your Name)
#33 (+27). One of Me (feat. Elton John)
#39 (+36). Lost in the Citadel

#42 (+38). Tales of Dominica
#44 (+28). The Art of Realization

#54 (+37). Sun Goes Down

#55 (+55). Don't Want It
#59 (+48). Am I Dreaming (feat. Miley Cyrus)
#62 (+53). Void

#68 (+78). Life After Salem

The album remains at #2 on US Apple Music. 

[nickd]

Sept 17, 2021 21:32:37 GMT -5 iHype. said:

So, this is interesting -- streaming for current music has actually PEAKED and is decreasing year to date.



It's odd that Billboard has not even talked about this and it's basically a hidden secret. This puts more perspective into why streaming numbers for hits are low. All that information about "more subscribers" and Spotify/Apple/etc gaining users does not mean much if people are actually streaming current music less. 

Is that for the US or worldwide? I assume US? Most paid streaming growth has been in emerging markets in the last couple years right?

[Enigma.]

Sept 17, 2021 18:14:04 GMT -5 atg said:

Sept 17, 2021 12:14:07 GMT -5 s9983 said:

So far the montero album seems to rly have an underwhelming start on apple music. WIll assume it'll be much bigger on spotify, but i'm not so sure it'll be enough to top drake, who still occupies the entire top 10 of AM, and 19 out of the top 22 songs. His pure sales will have to be pretty big to outpace the streaming lead CLB has.

It’s still Drake vs Kanye season out here but its not Nas X’s fault because he did announce it before Donda was surprise dropped. It is kinda sad that him and Halsey had their albums planned in advance to smash only for Hip Hop’s 2 biggest superstars to drop and also have a beef to fuel both albums.

Donda isn't really a thing any more... with 27 songs it got under 100k last week (for reference, Morgan Wallen's album did better on its 6th week). Hurricane and Moon are sticking around but otherwise, it's not an obstacle for LNX on charts in any sense.

[iamsorare]

I expected lil nas to have some songs in the top 10 of AM...but I guess he's not that strong now..also I blame the leak of the album..the album leaked in August and he waited way too long to release it...

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 18, 2021 3:56:48 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

I expected lil nas to have some songs in the top 10 of AM...but I guess he's not that strong now..also I blame the leak of the album..the album leaked in August and he waited way too long to release it...

I don't think the leak affected anything. Only a few people knew about the leak and even fewer people could get their hands on it. His label did a pretty good job blocking efforts to spread the leak so no real damage was done. Most of the songs in the leak were older songs/songs that didn't end up making the album.

[iamsorare]

Sept 18, 2021 4:01:41 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Sept 18, 2021 3:56:48 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

I expected lil nas to have some songs in the top 10 of AM...but I guess he's not that strong now..also I blame the leak of the album..the album leaked in August and he waited way too long to release it...

I don't think the leak affected anything. Only a few people knew about the leak and even fewer people could get their hands on it. His label did a pretty good job blocking efforts to spread the leak so no real damage was done. Most of the songs in the leak were older songs/songs that didn't end up making the album.

well,I saw that industry baby returned in the top 10 on AM at least.. imagine if drake's 3rd week block lil nas from reaching #1 on Billboard 200

[iamsorare]

Mediocre results on apple music but very good results on Spotify..USA Spotify

1 INDUSTRY BABY / 2.493M

2 THATS WHAT I WANT / 1.896M

6 MONTERO / 1.563M

7 SCOOP / 1.396M

9 DOLLA SIGN SLIME / 1.242M

11 DEAD RIGHT NOW / 1.183M

13 ONE OF ME / 1.041M

17 LOST IN THE CITADEL / 954k

19 TALES OF DOMINICA / 924k

21 SUN GOES DOWN / 896k

26 AM I DREAMING / 803k

27 DONT WANT IT / 791k

30 VOID / 753k

32 LIFE ARTER SALEM / 692k

[iamsorare]

[firefox]

Sept 18, 2021 5:01:53 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

How many hours of tracking is this?

[iamsorare]

[jthentic]

Sept 18, 2021 5:01:53 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

Wait didn't they say it did 2m in jst 4 hrs 🤔

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Sept 18, 2021 5:22:54 GMT -5 firefox said:

Sept 18, 2021 5:01:53 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

How many hours of tracking is this?

11h

[fridayteenage]

ib yesterday: 8.8 mil/2.5 mil
that's what i want debut: 5.2 mil/1.9 mil
ib debut: 4.5 mil/2.2 mil

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Sept 18, 2021 5:51:59 GMT -5 jthentic said:

Sept 18, 2021 5:01:53 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

Wait didn't they say it did 2m in jst 4 hrs 🤔

It was released late so some streams might've missed the tracking hours for yesterday.

[fridayteenage]

Wait, did nas not release any physicals? I don't see them on his site or amazon.

[Enigma.]

Good Spotify numbers for Industry Baby!

[strongerq]

Sept 17, 2021 21:32:37 GMT -5 iHype. said:

So, this is interesting -- streaming for current music has actually PEAKED and is decreasing year to date.

It's odd that Billboard has not even talked about this and it's basically a hidden secret. This puts more perspective into why streaming numbers for hits are low. All that information about "more subscribers" and Spotify/Apple/etc gaining users does not mean much if people are actually streaming current music less. 

Billboard posts this in their Thursday Billboard Bulletin, oldbloke posts the stats each week on UKMix (but he only posts totals, not current vs catalog).

Something interesting. oldbloke posted in week 32 current vs catalog. Current total streaming had increased by 3.2% while catalog streaming by 13.2%.

The stats from the pic match what he posted for week 36. Vinyls/CDs/streaming...

The additional stat posted by oldbloke is that total video streaming decreased by 7.8%. ofc filtered to the death 2020 vs filtered to the death 2021 up till week 36.

So total current streaming is a tiny bit above last years, but audio streaming is lower. So current video streaming is bigger now.

So ~2/3 old  & ~1/3 new for audio is standard, but not the same for video.

ofc it is no surprise that current music pulls way way more video views than old music. YouTube is like 5 times more frontloaded than any audio platform (people care about videos for like 2/3 weeks max).

Catalog streaming will keep increasing  maybe even until 3/4 vs 1/4

Which frustrates me even more since so many songs are moving units and RIAA still is in the stone age. BPI (Brit Certified now) has automatic certifications since July 2013. When will the technology arrive in the US.

BPI has a formula that gives like 5-10% more units but whatever. But will ignore it for this, don't wanna complicate things.

USA has ~5 times bigger population than the UK (328.2M vs 66.65M).

I will transform the units to US numbers because people are used to them. Simple *5 lmao

Only songs from the past century:

25 songs have crossed what would be equivalent to 9 x Platinum in the US.

7 of those have surpassed what would be equivalent to 12 x Platinum in the US.

Out of those 'Wonderwall' & 'All I Want For Christmas Is You' are at US equivalent of 15xP. While 'Candle In The Wind 1997/Something About the Way You Look Tonight' is in the skies lol, but that is thanks to "out of this world" sales.

And i don't wanna talk about how many songs in total are above those ranges.

Up till last Friday 154 songs are above that 9 US mil equivalent treshold. Realistically it is 8.5M (8M at worst) because of difference in formulas, but yeah.

P.S. One thing i have noticed is that catalog songs/albums are doing better in the UK than in the US, based on positions of old albums/GH albums on the best selling lists each year.

Edit: Oh and maybe the difference in video streaming is simply because they totally removed UGC in Sep 2020, in Jan 2020 they removed loged out views + started filtering UGC. which had the biggest impact.

So they might be using 2020 with some little UGC, 2021 with no UGC.

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 18, 2021 4:52:43 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

Sept 18, 2021 4:01:41 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I don't think the leak affected anything. Only a few people knew about the leak and even fewer people could get their hands on it. His label did a pretty good job blocking efforts to spread the leak so no real damage was done. Most of the songs in the leak were older songs/songs that didn't end up making the album.

well,I saw that industry baby returned in the top 10 on AM at least.. imagine if drake's 3rd week block lil nas from reaching #1 on Billboard 200

Well, I can definitely see Drake blocking him from debuting at #1 on the Billboard 200. His songs are already dropping on Apple Music and his Spotify numbers aren't exactly great (especially if they keep dropping from tomorrow and for the rest of the tracking week). My guess is he does somewhere around 100-150K.

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 17, 2021 23:10:19 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Sept 17, 2021 14:32:50 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Current Positions (6 hours later):
#13 (=). Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow)
#31 (+53). That's What I Want

#38 (+28). Montero (Call Me By Your Name)
#42 (+36). Scoop (feat. Doja Cat)
#45 (+37). Dead Right Now 
#46 (+43). Dolla Sign Slime (feat. Megan Thee Stallion)
#60 (+82). One of Me (feat. Elton John)
#72 (+109). The Art of Realization

#80. Tales of Dominica
#75 (+119). Lost in the Citadel

#91. Sun Goes Down

#107. Am I Dreaming (feat. Miley Cyrus)
#110. Don't Want It 
#115. Void

#146. Life After Salem


The album is also now #2 on US Apple Music. 

Current Positions (8 hours later/24 hours since the start of the tracking week):
#7 (+6). Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow)

#14 (+17). That's What I Want
#19 (+22). Scoop (feat. Doja Cat)
#20 (+26). Dolla Sign Slime (feat. Megan Thee Stallion)
#22 (+23). Dead Right Now

#31 (+7). Montero (Call Me By Your Name)
#33 (+27). One of Me (feat. Elton John)
#39 (+36). Lost in the Citadel

#42 (+38). Tales of Dominica
#44 (+28). The Art of Realization

#54 (+37). Sun Goes Down

#55 (+55). Don't Want It
#59 (+48). Am I Dreaming (feat. Miley Cyrus)
#62 (+53). Void

#68 (+78). Life After Salem

The album remains at #2 on US Apple Music. 

Current Positions (8 hours later):
#9 (-2). Industry Baby (with Jack Harlow)

#15 (-1). That's What I Want

#22 (-3). Scoop (feat. Doja Cat)

#23 (-3). Dolla Sign Slime (feat. Megan Thee Stallion)

#30 (-8). Dead Right Now

#35 (-4). Montero (Call Me By Your Name)

#39 (-6). One of Me (feat. Elton John)

#49 (-10). Lost in the Citadel

#50 (-8). Tales of Dominica

#53 (-9). The Art of Realization

#61 (-7). Sun Goes Down

#63 (-8). Don't Want It

#65 (-6). Am I Dreaming (feat. Miley Cyrus)

#67 (-5). Void

#82 (-14). Life After Salem

The album remains at #2 on US Apple Music. 

[phieaglesfan712]

With Wildest Dreams already falling on iTunes, unless Taylor has the website sales, IB going to #1 is pretty much locked in.

[iamsorare]

Sept 18, 2021 6:57:12 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

With Wildest Dreams already falling on iTunes, unless Taylor has the website sales, IB going to #1 is pretty much locked in.

he will have two number one hits from this era at least cause I don't see him being #1 with the album on billboard 200

[nickd]

Sept 18, 2021 5:56:18 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Sept 18, 2021 5:22:54 GMT -5 firefox said:

How many hours of tracking is this?

11h

10h no? 2m unfiltered in 4 hours vs 2.7m in 10 hours filtered. A lot of Taylor's streams tend to get filtered so I'd expect this to perform better than Mr. Perfectly Fine but not a top 10 contender.

[iamsorare]

So IB #1 on hot 100,that's what I want and Montero in top 10..and probably Scoop will have a debut in top 50...thank god we won't have many debuts this time..I'm already tired with kanye and drake

[Enigma.]

You know it was just the first day of the week, right?