Billboard Hot 100: 10/23/2021

[Groovy]

Oct 10, 2021 13:22:54 GMT -5 jaffery said:

Oct 10, 2021 12:15:26 GMT -5 ddlz said:

63(+35) Justin Bieber - Ghost 319,207 (+15,030)

It’s coming, Only 27th on tth. Hopefully it rises tomorrow again

It got a big gain on Spotify and it's 7 on iTunes so we might have the next Bieber hit. 

[85la]

Oct 9, 2021 14:17:56 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

Adele previewed about 50 seconds of her song today on Instagram live and I’m gonna need a bigger Kleenex box !!! I feel we all need a really good cry sometime .. Olivia is the ballad princess and Adele is ballad queen . 2021 has been good .

Hmm, it seems the audio she posted of her own song wasn't too good, and unfortunately I can't say I am initially impressed with what I heard, but I will reserve judgement until I hear the recording in full and get a sense for the whole song.

[rainygirl]

Oct 10, 2021 13:54:19 GMT -5 85la said:

Oct 9, 2021 14:17:56 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

Adele previewed about 50 seconds of her song today on Instagram live and I’m gonna need a bigger Kleenex box !!! I feel we all need a really good cry sometime .. Olivia is the ballad princess and Adele is ballad queen . 2021 has been good .

Hmm, it seems the audio she posted of her own song wasn't too good, and unfortunately I can't say I am initially impressed with what I heard, but I will reserve judgement until I hear the recording in full and get a sense for the whole song.

fair enough . It’s also possible you won’t like it at all and that’s ok too

[dann]

it's over, as Adele must dominate the next few weeks.

[85la]

Oct 10, 2021 5:59:47 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

6 weeks later and Drake the stable princess still has CLB at #1 on the US AM albums chart with 11 tracks in the top 20 of the US AM songs chart.

I'm wondering what about AM causes it to skew heavily Drake? Whether Apple users just randomly happen to like Drake more, or if he has special marketing deals with them and they push him more, such as prominent placements in the app or extensive playlisting (admittedly I don't know any of this or if AM even has playlisting because I don't use it). I know he's had deals with them in the past, such as the exclusive release of the Hotline Bling video.

Not attacking Drake, just trying to find a neutral explanation for this.

[imbondz]

Is there an official release date for the new Adele?

[degen]

Oct 10, 2021 2:29:19 GMT -5 atg said:

Oct 9, 2021 16:53:12 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

boyz already down to #4 on itunes. another L for onika.

I said what i said before, but i realized that she couldn’t even get staying power reuniting with Drake and Lil Wayne on Staying Green that released earlier this year, and that was a promoted single. I think she’s been done making hits ironically ever since Trollz came out.

All she needs to do is collaborate with Lil Nas X and it would be an automatic #1. She still has that trick in the bag. Let’s be real Nicki can collaborate with whoever she wants. The fact that she assisted an unknown girl shows that she’s not chasing hits at this moment.

[rainygirl]

Oct 10, 2021 16:18:40 GMT -5 degen said:

Oct 10, 2021 2:29:19 GMT -5 atg said:

I said what i said before, but i realized that she couldn’t even get staying power reuniting with Drake and Lil Wayne on Staying Green that released earlier this year, and that was a promoted single. I think she’s been done making hits ironically ever since Trollz came out.

All she needs to do is collaborate with Lil Nas X and it would be an automatic #1. She still has that trick in the bag. Let’s be real Nicki can collaborate with whoever she wants. The fact that she assisted an unknown girl shows that she’s not chasing hits at this moment.

you think LNX is a bigger trick up her bag than Drake and Wayne combined ? Interesting

[Au$tin]

Oct 10, 2021 16:02:03 GMT -5 85la said:

Oct 10, 2021 5:59:47 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

6 weeks later and Drake the stable princess still has CLB at #1 on the US AM albums chart with 11 tracks in the top 20 of the US AM songs chart.

I'm wondering what about AM causes it to skew heavily Drake? Whether Apple users just randomly happen to like Drake more, or if he has special marketing deals with them and they push him more, such as prominent placements in the app or extensive playlisting (admittedly I don't know any of this or if AM even has playlisting because I don't use it). I know he's had deals with them in the past, such as the exclusive release of the Hotline Bling video.

Not attacking Drake, just trying to find a neutral explanation for this.

Drake's music used to be exclusively on Apple Music. As did a lot of other hip-hop/rap acts. That's why that service sways to heavily that way in general. That used to be the only place for fans of that genre to have a large catalog of music. That isn't the case anymore, but because that's the way it used to be, that's still where the fans reside because there isn't really an incentive to switch to a different service.

[degen]

Oct 10, 2021 16:24:48 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:18:40 GMT -5 degen said:

All she needs to do is collaborate with Lil Nas X and it would be an automatic #1. She still has that trick in the bag. Let’s be real Nicki can collaborate with whoever she wants. The fact that she assisted an unknown girl shows that she’s not chasing hits at this moment.

you think LNX is a bigger trick up her bag than Drake and Wayne combined ? Interesting

I mean she’s already done so many collaborations with those two. It’s uneventful at this point. So yes, LNX would absolutely be an event single.

[Au$tin]

Oct 10, 2021 16:24:48 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:18:40 GMT -5 degen said:

All she needs to do is collaborate with Lil Nas X and it would be an automatic #1. She still has that trick in the bag. Let’s be real Nicki can collaborate with whoever she wants. The fact that she assisted an unknown girl shows that she’s not chasing hits at this moment.

you think LNX is a bigger trick up her bag than Drake and Wayne combined ? Interesting

Yes. Nicki has collabed with Drake and Wayne so much before that collaborating with them isn't an event. Lil Nas X, on the other hand, is a Barb. He stans her. And his fans know that and have been itching for a collab between the two for years. Her fans have been too, though not quite to the same extent.

A collab between the two would undoubtedly be an event. Large enough to pull off going #1? Who knows, who cares. Large enough to at least get the song great numbers out of the gate? Absolutely.

[rainygirl]

Oct 10, 2021 16:28:59 GMT -5 degen said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:24:48 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

you think LNX is a bigger trick up her bag than Drake and Wayne combined ? Interesting

I mean she already has done so many collabos with those two. It’s uneventful at this point.

LNX basically begged her for a collab but she snubbed him because she was pouty about something he said about not being a Barb a million years ago . The loss is hers, not his at this juncture . As for her collaborating with ‘anyone’ , I will bet Mariah , Miley , Taylor , Cardi , Remty, Lil Kim, Iggy, etc would beg to differ lol

[degen]

Oct 10, 2021 16:32:14 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:24:48 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

you think LNX is a bigger trick up her bag than Drake and Wayne combined ? Interesting

Yes. Nicki has collabed with Drake and Wayne so much before that collaborating with them isn't an event. Lil Nas X, on the other hand, is a Barb. He stans her. And his fans know that and have been itching for a collab between the two for years. Her fans have been too, though not quite to the same extent.

A collab between the two would undoubtedly be an event. Large enough to pull off going #1? Who knows, who cares. Large enough to at least get the song great numbers out of the gate? Absolutely.

I agree. And she already turned down a feature for his album. But I’m pretty certain she just wants to use this trick on her terms. I can see her doing something with him for her next era.

[rainygirl]

Oct 10, 2021 16:32:14 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:24:48 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

you think LNX is a bigger trick up her bag than Drake and Wayne combined ? Interesting

Yes. Nicki has collabed with Drake and Wayne so much before that collaborating with them isn't an event. Lil Nas X, on the other hand, is a Barb. He stans her. And his fans know that and have been itching for a collab between the two for years. Her fans have been too, though not quite to the same extent.

A collab between the two would undoubtedly be an event. Large enough to pull off going #1? Who knows, who cares. Large enough to at least get the song great numbers out of the gate? Absolutely.

well then she better call him quick and take advantage of that

[degen]

Oct 10, 2021 16:36:30 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:28:59 GMT -5 degen said:

I mean she already has done so many collabos with those two. It’s uneventful at this point.

LNX basically begged her for a collab but she snubbed him because she was pouty about something he said about not being a Barb a million years ago . The loss is hers, not his at this juncture . As for her collaborating with ‘anyone’ , I will bet Mariah , Miley , Taylor , Cardi , Remty, Lil Kim, Iggy, etc would beg to differ lol

Actually she responded to him on Twitter and said all was good between them. You sound like you really hate Nicki tho. The dedication is admirable.

Oh and It’s not like any of those females you mentioned besides Cardi can score her a hit single tho. Or maybe she can call up Mariah around Christmas? I’m not sure.

[rainygirl]

Oct 10, 2021 16:40:21 GMT -5 degen said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:36:30 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

LNX basically begged her for a collab but she snubbed him because she was pouty about something he said about not being a Barb a million years ago . The loss is hers, not his at this juncture . As for her collaborating with ‘anyone’ , I will bet Mariah , Miley , Taylor , Cardi , Remty, Lil Kim, Iggy, etc would beg to differ lol

Actually she responded to him on Twitter and said all was good between them. You sound like you really hate Nicki tho. The dedication is admirable.

Yes I have strong feelings about anybody who is an anti-vaxxer and sexual assault apologist. Call me crazy lol … Thank you for noticing my dedication, I believe in giving it my all . You seem to love her and I salute you for that I guess

[phieaglesfan712]

Oct 10, 2021 16:18:40 GMT -5 degen said:

Oct 10, 2021 2:29:19 GMT -5 atg said:

I said what i said before, but i realized that she couldn’t even get staying power reuniting with Drake and Lil Wayne on Staying Green that released earlier this year, and that was a promoted single. I think she’s been done making hits ironically ever since Trollz came out.

All she needs to do is collaborate with Lil Nas X and it would be an automatic #1. She still has that trick in the bag. Let’s be real Nicki can collaborate with whoever she wants. The fact that she assisted an unknown girl shows that she’s not chasing hits at this moment.

If only Nicki would have done an IB remix with LNX this week…

[nathanalbright]

If wishes were horses....

[iamsorare]

Oct 10, 2021 16:15:47 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Is there an official release date for the new Adele?

of course,where have you been? October 15- single, November 19- album

[Au$tin]

Oct 10, 2021 16:39:25 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:32:14 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Yes. Nicki has collabed with Drake and Wayne so much before that collaborating with them isn't an event. Lil Nas X, on the other hand, is a Barb. He stans her. And his fans know that and have been itching for a collab between the two for years. Her fans have been too, though not quite to the same extent.

A collab between the two would undoubtedly be an event. Large enough to pull off going #1? Who knows, who cares. Large enough to at least get the song great numbers out of the gate? Absolutely.

well then she better call him quick and take advantage of that

Nah. Nicki isn't in any career danger. She's far from her peak, yes, but she's not filing for bankruptcy either. She sucks as a person, but we've been knew for years about that and that hasn't hurt her yet (her only #1 is with a pedo), don't think it would suddenly start to now. She's got a cult of followers that will be there for her for years to come. Her last release was literally a mixtape of old material and it did surprisingly well for what it was. And it won't be long before she transitions into legacy act status and charts won't matter anymore.

Now, if we were discussing someone like Keri Hilson or Alessia Cara 👀

[rainygirl]

Oct 10, 2021 17:26:03 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:39:25 GMT -5 rainygirl said:

well then she better call him quick and take advantage of that

Nah. Nicki isn't in any career danger. She's far from her peak, yes, but she's not filing for bankruptcy either. She sucks as a person, but we've been knew for years about that and that hasn't hurt her yet (her only #1 is with a pedo), don't think it would suddenly start to now. She's got a cult of followers that will be there for her for years to come. Her last release was literally a mixtape of old material and it did surprisingly well for what it was. And it won't be long before she transitions into legacy act status and charts won't matter anymore.

Now, if we were discussing someone like Keri Hilson or Alessia Cara 👀

I wholeheartedly co-sign part of what you said .. “sucks as a person”, and “cult of followers” .. it’s actually my prediction that as time goes by , most of her fans will deny they ever liked her .. but hey it’s just my opinion

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 10, 2021 16:27:44 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:02:03 GMT -5 85la said:

I'm wondering what about AM causes it to skew heavily Drake? Whether Apple users just randomly happen to like Drake more, or if he has special marketing deals with them and they push him more, such as prominent placements in the app or extensive playlisting (admittedly I don't know any of this or if AM even has playlisting because I don't use it). I know he's had deals with them in the past, such as the exclusive release of the Hotline Bling video.

Not attacking Drake, just trying to find a neutral explanation for this.

Drake's music used to be exclusively on Apple Music. As did a lot of other hip-hop/rap acts. That's why that service sways to heavily that way in general. That used to be the only place for fans of that genre to have a large catalog of music. That isn't the case anymore, but because that's the way it used to be, that's still where the fans reside because there isn't really an incentive to switch to a different service.

Actually, this isn't true. Drake's music was never exclusively on Apple Music and neither was the music of any other hip-hop/rap acts. Views could only be streamed exclusively on Apple Music in it's first two weeks of availability but by it's third week, it became available on every other streaming service. That's the only album Drake had a deal like that for. Every other project he's released since then has been available to stream on every streaming service upon arrival. He did have a deal with Apple Music that included him having a radio show and he gave the platform exclusive premieres of his songs/videos like Majid Jordan's single — My Love, which featured him to What a Time to Be Alive/More Life being premiered on his Apple Music radio show an hour before being available to stream on every streaming service and the Hotline Bling video was exclusive to Apple Music for it's first week. 

To answer your question, 85la , Drake aligned with Apple Music since it's inception and basically became the face of it's marketing campaign. He may or may not have something to do with it but Hip-Hop fans have also always gravitated towards using Apple Music a lot more than other streaming services. It's been like that since summer 2015 when it launched and it's still like that today so most rappers perform exponentially better on Apple Music than on Spotify (which favors more melodic-leaning songs like pop songs). Another thing I'd say helped Drake become the streaming force he is today in general (not just on Apple Music) is that he was one of the first major artists to go all in on streaming beginning from 2015. That year, he released 2 mixtapes and a bunch of songs, he released an album in 2016 and another mixtape in 2017. Those first 3 years were pivotal for any artist looking to capture/establish a streaming audience and I'd say more than any other major artist, Drake leaned the most into that by flooding the marketplace with music during that period and giving his fanbase reasons to keep streaming his music. 

[rainygirl]

Oct 10, 2021 17:41:35 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Oct 10, 2021 16:27:44 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Drake's music used to be exclusively on Apple Music. As did a lot of other hip-hop/rap acts. That's why that service sways to heavily that way in general. That used to be the only place for fans of that genre to have a large catalog of music. That isn't the case anymore, but because that's the way it used to be, that's still where the fans reside because there isn't really an incentive to switch to a different service.

Actually, this isn't true. Drake's music was never exclusively on Apple Music and neither was the music of any other hip-hop/rap acts. Views could only be streamed exclusively on Apple Music in it's first two weeks of availability but by it's third week, it became available on every other streaming service. That's the only album Drake had a deal like that for. Every other project he's released since then has been available to stream on every streaming service upon arrival. He did have a deal with Apple Music that included him having a radio show and he gave the platform exclusive premieres of his songs/videos like Majid Jordan's single — My Love, which featured him to What a Time to Be Alive/More Life being premiered on his Apple Music radio show an hour before being available to stream on every streaming service and the Hotline Bling video was exclusive to Apple Music for it's first week. 

To answer your question, 85la , Drake aligned with Apple Music since it's inception and basically became the face of it's marketing campaign. He may or may not have something to do with it but Hip-Hop fans have also always gravitated towards using Apple Music a lot more than other streaming services. It's been like that since summer 2015 when it launched and it's still like that today so most rappers perform exponentially better on Apple Music than on Spotify (which favors more melodic-leaning songs like pop songs). Another thing I'd say helped Drake become the streaming force he is today in general (not just on Apple Music) is that he was one of the first major artists to go all in on streaming beginning from 2015. That year, he released 2 mixtapes and a bunch of songs, he released an album in 2016 and another mixtape in 2017. Those first 3 years were pivotal for any artist looking to capture/establish a streaming audience and I'd say more than any other major artist, Drake leaned the most into that by flooding the marketplace with music during that period and giving his fanbase reasons to keep streaming his music. 

thank you for this most informative post ..

[atg]

Drake is pretty much the king of the streaming era and leads the Apple Music domination. Newer acts like Lil Baby, Lil Durk and Youngboy would take inspiration from this and form a consistent fanbase around the platform by releasing multiple projects throughout a single year so they would never have to worry about falling off or albums not doing well because there will always be an audience streaming their music regardless. If there’s a good strategy that guarantees longevity in the mainstream, this is definitely one of the best ways to do it.

[iHype.]

Nicki just makes stupid decisions musically (and outside of music but let’s not). That’s why she has basically been more miss than hit with music for like the last 6 years.

I’m not sure why she still even feels the need to do collaborations with just anybody for the sake of doing it at this point into her career. Jesy Nelson and Meghan Trainor? Really? Once you reach a superstar rapper level and have proven yourself you don’t cheapen your brand with continued D-list rent a features like that. You will never catch Kanye or Drake doing a feature for Nick Jonas in 2021. She’s acting like a two hit wonder that needs to pay off debts.

Aside from the features, she also chooses terrible singles choices for her own music. Megatron was a weak standalone single altogether and Seeing Green is nice but not really radio material. She doesn’t know how to choose a hit.

She has also released only 1 new full length project in the last 7 years. Obviously any mainstream artist let alone mainstream rapper should be releasing more full length projects. She just makes it easy for herself to fail.

[CocaNola]

Who Want Smoke?! is #3 on AM, behind 2 Drake songs.

Also, Está Dañada is #32, and Wfm is #45.

[degen]

Oct 10, 2021 22:41:57 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Nicki just makes stupid decisions musically (and outside of music but let’s not). That’s why she has basically been more miss than hit with music for like the last 6 years.

I’m not sure why she still even feels the need to do collaborations with just anybody for the sake of doing it at this point into her career. Jesy Nelson and Meghan Trainor? Really? Once you reach a superstar rapper level and have proven yourself you don’t cheapen your brand with continued D-list rent a features like that. You will never catch Kanye or Drake doing a feature for Nick Jonas in 2021. She’s acting like a two hit wonder that needs to pay off debts.

Aside from the features, she also chooses terrible singles choices for her own music. Megatron was a weak standalone single altogether and Seeing Green is nice but not really radio material. She doesn’t know how to choose a hit.

She has also released only 1 new full length project in the last 7 years. Obviously any mainstream artist let alone mainstream rapper should be releasing more full length projects. She just makes it easy for herself to fail.

Her features were pretty savy up until around 2018. Even when people were writing her off she still scored hits on “MotorSport” and “Rake It Up.” Her “Queen” era was a little mishandled but she released the right singles. Maybe “Good Form” could’ve been the lead, because that was a really good song that suffered from later single syndrome. We can go ahead and forget about “Say So” and “Trollz” but the fact is it has only been a few years since she was last on a hit song without the gimmicks. There have been a few times shes been written off and still found a way to land a hit. So I’m not writing her off yet.

[enwhy]

One of the craziest changes in the charts this past few years has been how common it is now for top 10 songs to debut in the top 10. It used to be that most songs debuted lower and rose up but now it's totally flipped - natural top 10 rises are the exception. I graphed out the last 3 "natural" top 10 chart point trajectories (there have literally been 3 since April!) versus 3 songs that have been getting a lot of hype as potential future top 10's:

HUGE CREDIT to @cedriccharts, whose prediction data I used for the graph!

Some interesting things to look at:

Astronaut in the Ocean - Astronaut had a really quick and steady rise from February through May. The song's top week funnily enough was only its fifth-best week, but the 5/22 chart was just weak enough to get Masked Wolf's first Hot 100 entry to its #6 peak.

WITHOUT YOU - This was the most interesting to map out. What a strange run, starting with under 100 chart points and falling 3 weeks in a row, then beginning the incredibly slow rise all the way to the top 10. Finally after months of slow growth, a very well-timed remix and music video with Miley Cyrus propelled LAROI barely into the top 10. From there, a decline almost as slow as the rise as it faded from the chart. Despite the low peak, WITHOUT YOU stuck around long enough to earn itself a projected spot in the top 20 of the 2021 YE chart.

Fancy Like - Everyone's favorite! Fancy Like also had a weird run, debuting with 80pts and then rising quickly. It's had a couple of big weeks which inexplicably launch it up like 20% each time - could be something to do with radio format weirdness? Anyway, Fancy Like has the privilege of being the highest peaking song on here, and it's still growing today. It'll be fun to see whether it can snag a #1 peak with all the big Q4 drops on the way. I'm predicting a #2 peak (~290 pts).

Beggin - This song sort of had a mini-peak in its first few weeks on the chart. It started to fall as it faltered on streaming - then radio came in and saved one of the first true rock songs we've had in the top 20 in a long time. Right now, radio continues to add spins thanks to Beggin's high callouts, and its experienced a small streaming resurgence. I'm predicting a #8 peak (~200 pts).

Cold Heart - This one had all the signs of a debut and fall off situation. Fortunately, it's a bop and the UK has good music taste. Its UK success might've been what saved it, and now Cold Heart's climbing streaming & radio. While it's a long way from the top, I have a good feeling about this one - I think if nothing else it's got a long radio run ahead. I'm predicting a #4 peak (~250 pts).

Ghost - Beiber's next single could go any direction from here. After a few weeks of growth, he's finally made it onto the chart. Now there are a couple questions: 1) How much of a boost can he get from the video, and can he sustain it? 2) How much more Bieber is the radio willing to play? I mean, he's on something like his 6th big radio song since early 2020. All in all, it's a little too early to say anything on this one, but I haven't seen enough to be convinced it's headed for the top.

[wavey.]

Oct 11, 2021 0:03:56 GMT -5 degen said:

Oct 10, 2021 22:41:57 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Nicki just makes stupid decisions musically (and outside of music but let’s not). That’s why she has basically been more miss than hit with music for like the last 6 years.

I’m not sure why she still even feels the need to do collaborations with just anybody for the sake of doing it at this point into her career. Jesy Nelson and Meghan Trainor? Really? Once you reach a superstar rapper level and have proven yourself you don’t cheapen your brand with continued D-list rent a features like that. You will never catch Kanye or Drake doing a feature for Nick Jonas in 2021. She’s acting like a two hit wonder that needs to pay off debts.

Aside from the features, she also chooses terrible singles choices for her own music. Megatron was a weak standalone single altogether and Seeing Green is nice but not really radio material. She doesn’t know how to choose a hit.

She has also released only 1 new full length project in the last 7 years. Obviously any mainstream artist let alone mainstream rapper should be releasing more full length projects. She just makes it easy for herself to fail.

Her features were pretty savy up until around 2018. Even when people were writing her off she still scored hits on “MotorSport” and “Rake It Up.” Her “Queen” era was a little mishandled but she released the right singles. Maybe “Good Form” could’ve been the lead, because that was a really good song that suffered from later single syndrome. We can go ahead and forget about “Say So” and “Trollz” but the fact is it has only been a few years since she was last on a hit song without the gimmicks. There have been a few times shes been written off and still found a way to land a hit. So I’m not writing her off yet.

We like this enthusiasm.

[kingvavis]

2019 and 2021 were both top 10 debut heavy years where the songs that were the biggest of the year were top 10 debuts. 2020 was a bit weird because you did have some big hit top 10 debuts, a lot of the biggest songs of the year debuted outside of the top 10 (The Box, Don't Start Now, Blinding Lights, Mood, Savage, Savage Love, Roses, Say So, Watermelon Sugar, I Hope, Go Crazy, etc.)