Billboard Hot 100: 12/18/2021

[radio2009]

Dec 6, 2021 15:49:13 GMT -5 ontopofthis said:

Dec 6, 2021 13:52:21 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Cold Heart will get a 2nd wind in late winter/early spring like Levitating did. CH is destined to be the YE #2 for 2022.

The streaming for that song is way too low for that to happen. It will be lucky to hit the top ten 

It's airplay and sales are still stable, so it's still in the running. The streaming numbers are already running ahead of last week.

[JukeboxJacob]

Songs that'll be going strong after the winter freeze (my predictions):

-Easy On Me: still gradually rising in popularity, this is gonna have more longevity than Hello did
-Oh My God: will re-peak around the lower top 10 for a while
-Heat Waves: it just keeps rising somehow so maybe it'll keep going
-Smokin OTW: will peak in the top 3 (not quite a #1)
-Cold Heart: I'm putting bets on this going #1 in a couple months and having another impressive Dua Lipa chart run
-abcdefu: crazy momentum rn but it'll stabilize and peak in top 5
-Have Mercy: potentially a big hit
-Bad Man: either gonna fade into oblivion or blow up
-Big Energy: potentially a big hit
-Woman: with the MV release this could get a strong second wind, maybe even top 10 by spring?
-For Tonight: maybe top 10
-Enemy: maybe top 10
-Wandered To LA: this just sounds like a lasting top 5 hit (not quite a #1 tho)

EDIT: Better Days still has a chance to be top 10 I think

[joshtheking]

I predict Oh My God will be the 34+35 to Easy On Me's Positions, sort of

[gikem]

Dec 6, 2021 17:22:27 GMT -5 JukeboxJacob said:

Better Days feels like it's stagnating so it might not make it to the top 10

Yeah, at this point, this song’s top 10 prospects suffered from bad timing. I can still see it going top 20 on radio inertia after Christmas, but I don’t think it’ll be as massive as I had initially thought.

[Taylor.]

Dec 6, 2021 17:40:46 GMT -5 joshtheking said:

I predict Oh My God will be the 34+35 to Easy On Me's Positions, sort of

I would kind of be here for a OMG remix with Meg to capitalize on the WUTB meme.

[joshtheking]

Also regarding Better Days- calling it now, I think it'll be more longevity leaning rather than say #1. My guess is peak in the lower top 10 and end up in the top 15 for year end. Think Congratulations by Post Malone

[kindofbiased]

The way it was gaining back in October or early November I thought Better Days might've been a #1 contender after Adele fell off but now I agree I think it'll have more of a longevity run rather than a high peak run

[gikem]

Not that it matters a whole ton, but ABCDEFU is now #1 on US iTunes for the first time.

[ontopofthis]

The real question is whether Billboard will implement a new formula for the new year because the current one is not it

[atg]

There’s 2 types of longevity that’s been recently going on, the BL run and the Heat Waves run. Its too early to decide which song would fall into either of these categories for 2022 as they both are record breaking longevity runs, but i guess Stay obviously falling into the BL category and Beggin possibly being the next HW are my predictions.

[Deleted]

Dec 6, 2021 21:52:28 GMT -5 atg said:

There’s 2 types of longevity that’s been recently going on, the BL run and the Heat Waves run. Its too early to decide which song would fall into either of these categories for 2022 as they both are record breaking longevity runs, but i guess Stay obviously falling into the BL category and Beggin possibly being the next HW are my predictions.

How? The song already peaked on radio, and has since lost nearly a quarter of its audience and fallen three spots on the Kworb charts. Do you think it'll experience some sort of streaming and/or sales boost?

[phieaglesfan712]

If any song is going to have a Heat Waves type run, it’s Cold Heart. Dua has already done it once with Levitating.

I don’t think you could put Stay in the same category as BL. Stay was massive right out the gate like Shape of You, and it’s very rare that songs like that have super longevity. Even songs like Closer and Circles debuted close to the bottom of the Top 10 and climbed their way to the top on their way to super longevity.

[singingrulebritannia]

Dec 6, 2021 21:52:28 GMT -5 atg said:

Beggin possibly being the next HW

"Beggin'" doesn't have any chance of following the "Heat Waves" pattern as far as I can tell. First off, after "Heat Waves" hit its first streaming peak just outside the top 10 in May, it never fell lower than about the high 30s between that and the rebound. Whereas "Beggin" was close to falling out of the top 50 even before Christmas songs after its streaming peak. Too much lost traction to gain back, there. Second, when "Heat Waves" hit its first radio peak in June, it had only gotten to the top 20 on Pop/Hot AC before falling out, so it didn't burn as much on radio listeners and some markets remained untapped. Meanwhile, "Beggin" just recently completed a pretty natural top 5 run on both those formats and is plummeting at Pop. So the song was already at near the highest possible point of saturation and it would probably confuse audiences if it reversed course and surged back to the top.

[fridayteenage]

Dec 6, 2021 21:18:18 GMT -5 ontopofthis said:

The real question is whether Billboard will implement a new formula for the new year because the current one is not it

one that doesn't keep morgan wallen running so long, i support that.



Top US Youtube Songs:
4 +4
Cocomelon Nursery Rhymes - Kids Songs
20 NEW
Cocomelon Nursery Rhymes - Yes Yes Bedtime

Quite a streaming king. Per wiki, tied with Ed Sheeran for most songs in the 30 biggest Youtube videos.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

So this is going viral in the UK, is climbing up the alt/rock charts, can we also make it go viral so it becomes a Top 40 on the Hot 100?

[Enigma.]

Dec 6, 2021 17:22:27 GMT -5 JukeboxJacob said:

Songs that'll be going strong after the winter freeze (my predictions):

-Easy On Me: still gradually rising in popularity, this is gonna have more longevity than Hello did
-Oh My God: will re-peak around the lower top 10 for a while
-Heat Waves: it just keeps rising somehow so maybe it'll keep going
-Smokin OTW: will peak in the top 3 (not quite a #1)
-Cold Heart: I'm putting bets on this going #1 in a couple months and having another impressive Dua Lipa chart run
-abcdefu: crazy momentum rn but it'll stabilize and peak in top 5
-Have Mercy: potentially a big hit
-Bad Man: either gonna fade into oblivion or blow up
-Big Energy: potentially a big hit
-Woman: with the MV release this could get a strong second wind, maybe even top 10 by spring?
-For Tonight: maybe top 10
-Enemy: maybe top 10
-Wandered To LA: this just sounds like a lasting top 5 hit (not quite a #1 tho)

EDIT: Better Days still has a chance to be top 10 I think

Woman would need pretty strong second wind indeed as it hasn't reached top 60 yet lol The ship has sailed - it reached #13 in the UK and is way down there as well.

Same with Have Mercy (the one by Chloe I suppose?)

[otaviohmg]

Dec 7, 2021 2:10:17 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So this is going viral in the UK, is climbing up the alt/rock charts, can we also make it go viral so it becomes a Top 40 on the Hot 100?

SPOILER: Click to show

{Music Video}

I really don't know because many UK songs and artists almost or never got traction after becoming a hit in their home country. For example, Mimi Webb didn't get much attention on US radio even her two songs went Top 15.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Dec 7, 2021 4:44:19 GMT -5 otaviohmg said:

Dec 7, 2021 2:10:17 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So this is going viral in the UK, is climbing up the alt/rock charts, can we also make it go viral so it becomes a Top 40 on the Hot 100?

I really don't know because many UK songs and artists almost or never got a traction after becoming a hit in their home country. For example, Mimi Webb didn't got much attention on US radios even her two songs went Top 15.

A reason UK acts don't crossover easily might be a combination of label promo + regionality for reasons Zara Larsson, Little Mix, Anne-Marie, Years & Years, Mabel, RAYE, Rag N Bone Man, Dermot Kennedy (I can see Maisie Peters falling in this category as well, if she gets other hits besides Psycho), as well as the slew of X Factor/Britain's Got Talent winners like Calum Scott and James Arthur (I'm glad they didn't have much crossover tbh), the mediocre EDM (also glad as well) and club hits they have, and the blowing UK Hip-Hop scene that includes rappers like Dave, Stormzy, and R&B acts like Jorja Smith, Mahalia, and Burna Boy. Even Christmas staples like Fairytale of New York; it's never charted in the US

But even their biggest superstars, some of their biggest hit songs didn't crossover. Ed Sheeran from example had Galway Girl, Lego House, Drunk, Bloodstream, Happier, South of the Border, Take Me Back to London, all were Top 10 hits in the UK and in other countries and yet none of these cracked the Top 40 or even Top 50 on the Hot 100. Dua Lipa and Sam Smith also have a handful of Top 10 UK Hits that weren't big stateside.

[Enigma.]

I guess it's because it takes a completely separate effort to push songs into airplay. Viral hits happen no matter what but any extra requires committed management and a suitable sound.

Dance isn't doing well in the US Pop radio in general right now. Dua Lipa seems like an anomaly.

[Joe1240]

All Too Well Taylor’s Version 10 Minute Version at #21 this week. Only 2 weeks in the top 10. This should go back up after the Holidays and have an “Willow” type run.

[otaviohmg]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb seems to have gotten a bad radio update resulting in songs basically staying the same as yesterday. That has happened before. If it gets fixed, I´ll post the update later.

[phieaglesfan712]

Dec 7, 2021 5:36:29 GMT -5 Joe1240 said:

All Too Well Taylor’s Version 10 Minute Version at #21 this week. Only 2 weeks in the top 10. This should go back up after the Holidays and have an “Willow” type run.

I think ATW could have a FAA type run if Taylor’s team makes a full push on radio after the holidays.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Drake asked his Grammys nominations to be withdrawn. That further undermines the credibility of those awards.

[rainygirl]

Dec 7, 2021 2:10:17 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So this is going viral in the UK, is climbing up the alt/rock charts, can we also make it go viral so it becomes a Top 40 on the Hot 100?

Good lord !!! I love love love this! Thanks Drem

[jenglisbe]

Dec 7, 2021 10:01:00 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Drake asked his Grammys nominations to be withdrawn. That further undermines the credibility of those awards.

People have been complaining about the "credibility" of the Grammys since at least the early 1990s, perhaps even earlier. Yet here they still are getting major media coverage, discussion on these boards, and appearances from big music names (not to mention labels doing FYCs and such).

[rainygirl]

Dec 7, 2021 10:01:00 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Drake asked his Grammys nominations to be withdrawn. That further undermines the credibility of those awards.

goes hand in hand with the rumblings about the credibility of billboard charts , especially hot 100

[kingvavis]

Dec 7, 2021 10:41:13 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 7, 2021 10:01:00 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Drake asked his Grammys nominations to be withdrawn. That further undermines the credibility of those awards.

People have been complaining about the "credibility" of the Grammys since at least the early 1990s, perhaps even earlier. Yet here they still are getting major media coverage, discussion on these boards, and appearances from big music names (not to mention labels doing FYCs and such).

Sure people may have been complaining back then but the loss of credibility can happen gradually over decades.

[mcsteamy]

Dec 7, 2021 10:53:10 GMT -5 kingvavis said:

Dec 7, 2021 10:41:13 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

People have been complaining about the "credibility" of the Grammys since at least the early 1990s, perhaps even earlier. Yet here they still are getting major media coverage, discussion on these boards, and appearances from big music names (not to mention labels doing FYCs and such).

Sure people may have been complaining back then but the loss of credibility can happen gradually over decades.

The blinding lights effect

[phieaglesfan712]

Dec 7, 2021 10:41:13 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 7, 2021 10:01:00 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Drake asked his Grammys nominations to be withdrawn. That further undermines the credibility of those awards.

People have been complaining about the "credibility" of the Grammys since at least the early 1990s, perhaps even earlier. Yet here they still are getting major media coverage, discussion on these boards, and appearances from big music names (not to mention labels doing FYCs and such).

The early 1990s coincided with the Milli Vanilli debacle. I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the event that started the questioning of the credibility of the Grammys.