Billboard Hot 100: 04/02/2022

[SPRΞΞ]

Mar 19, 2022 13:02:11 GMT -5 Fears in the Fire said:

Mar 19, 2022 12:41:40 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Stay predicted to be #2 on the Hot 100 this week.

source? I saw that for 3/26 but haven’t seen anything for this week yet

i guess i meant that week. It's confusing what week is next week, lol.

[Gary]

Yep bound to happen - the problem with multiple "next week" threads open at the same time

[kindofbiased]

I'm guessing they're talking about the 3/26 week, we really don't have enough information for the 4/2 chart yet (though I'm gonna make a bold prediction that Heat Waves stays #1)

edit: lol i didn't read the last page before posting this oops 

[phieaglesfan712]

If Stay goes 2-2 on the 3/26 & 4/2 charts, it will enter the Top 20 of the all-time list, passing Circles in 24 weeks less weeks. In addition, Stay would have sole possession of the record of most weeks in the Top 2 and Top 3.

[jayhawk1117]

Is there a world…. Where stay repeaks? I’m very much over the song BUT Ain’t much else exciting about the charts rn so it’d be something lol

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 03 » / « 19 »

1(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 89.97(+0.28)
2(=) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 81.30(-0.37)
3(=) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 80.52(+0.09)
4(=) Justin Bieber - Ghost 78.53(+0.48)
5(=) GAYLE - abcdefu (feat. Royal & the Serpent) 76.98(-0.41)
6(=) Doja Cat - Woman 69.43(+1.66)
7(=) Adele - Easy On Me 63.78(-0.92)
8(=) Latto - Big Energy 63.07(+0.53)
9(+1) Imagine Dragons - Enemy From League Of Legends 58.15(+1.27)
10(-1) Doja Cat - Need To Know 57.18(+0.05)

33(+5) Muni Long - Hrs and Hrs 30.14(+0.94)

42(=) Cole Swindell & Lainey Wilson - Never Say Never 26.94(+0.85)

63(+2) Camila Cabello - Bam Bam (feat. Ed Sheeran) 19.96(+0.75)

66(-11) Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa - Sweetest Pie 18.92(-3.74)

-(-) Jnr Choi - To The Moon 11.97(+0.80)

-(-) Carrie Underwood - Ghost Story 6.76(-)

[Choco]

Mar 18, 2022 10:50:26 GMT -5 Zoibator said:

Charli XCX’s new album is FIRE 🔥🔥🔥
I really don’t understand how she’s so underrated tbh

She had a way more uncommercial hyperpop sound up until this album which didn't sell at all. I think a handful of travks she just dropped would have been hits if someone else was singing them, sadly. She's fun, they just can't seem to market her correctly.

[enwhy]

So with Spotify looking more stagnant than ever, I took a look at the 3 longevity queens, Stay, Heat Waves, and Industry Baby. Here's what their weekly Spotify streams & ranking looked like during the third week of each month from July through now:

Stay
Streams: 13M - 14M - 11M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 5M - 5M - 5M
Ranking: 1 - 1 - 3 - 3 - 9 - 11 - 8 - 6 - 5

Heat Waves
Streams: 6M - 5M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 6M - 6M - 7M - 7M
Ranking: 11 - 13 - 6 - 5 - 6 - 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

Industry Baby
Streams: 12M - 14M - 9M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 5M - 4M
Ranking: 2 - 1 - 2 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 7

I feel like these songs were on pretty normal mega-hit trajectories up until the end of last year, just peaked at different times. But since Christmas songs fell off...wow they really are not slowing down much at all. Heat Waves is the craziest, it's consistently managed 6-8M streams per week for more than half a year now. WTF is going on?

[gikem]

Mar 19, 2022 17:59:18 GMT -5 enwhy said:

So with Spotify looking more stagnant than ever, I took a look at the 3 longevity queens, Stay, Heat Waves, and Industry Baby. Here's what their weekly Spotify streams & ranking looked like during the third week of each month from July through now:

Stay
Streams: 13M - 14M - 11M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 5M - 5M - 5M
Ranking: 1 - 1 - 3 - 3 - 9 - 11 - 8 - 6 - 5

Heat Waves
Streams: 6M - 5M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 6M - 6M - 7M - 7M
Ranking: 11 - 13 - 6 - 5 - 6 - 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

Industry Baby
Streams: 12M - 14M - 9M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 5M - 4M
Ranking: 2 - 1 - 2 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 7

I feel like these songs were on pretty normal mega-hit trajectories up until the end of last year, just peaked at different times. But since Christmas songs fell off...wow they really are not slowing down much at all. Heat Waves is the craziest, it's consistently managed 6-8M streams per week for more than half a year now. WTF is going on?

Could Spotify playlisting be (partially) to blame? I know they have a habit of playing certain songs first when you put a major playlist on shuffle, and these three songs might be major benefactors of that. Plus, compare this to the more on-demand driven Apple Music as of now (excluding all the Lil Durk songs clogging the top): Heat Waves is #14, Stay is #23, and Industry Baby is #51. All still pretty big in the grand scheme, but not massive compared to Spotify. And yes, I know comparing Spotify to AM is very apples-to-oranges, but I don't think it's a bad correlation to make.

[rosalina4812]

Mar 19, 2022 17:41:43 GMT -5 Choco said:

Mar 18, 2022 10:50:26 GMT -5 Zoibator said:

Charli XCX’s new album is FIRE 🔥🔥🔥
I really don’t understand how she’s so underrated tbh

She had a way more uncommercial hyperpop sound up until this album which didn't sell at all. I think a handful of travks she just dropped would have been hits if someone else was singing them, sadly. She's fun, they just can't seem to market her correctly.

That was the music she wanted to do. But her label is forcing one last hurrah for her before she enviably leaves.

[kcdawg13]

I like Stay fine enough but I don't think I've voluntarily streamed it since October, so I was shocked to see it's still Top 10 on Spotify. Just a massive hit all around. Wouldn't be shocked if it eventually becomes the biggest streaming hit of all time honestly. 

[SPRΞΞ]

Mar 19, 2022 19:12:10 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I like Stay fine enough but I don't think I've voluntarily streamed it since October, so I was shocked to see it's still Top 10 on Spotify. Just a massive hit all around. Wouldn't be shocked if it eventually becomes the biggest streaming hit of all time honestly. 

at this point I think it's Justin's biggest hit. "Sorry" didn't last THIS long did it? They are close, but i think "Stay" has surpassed it recently.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

So I saw Turning Red (wont spoil anything, Go see it, its really really good) and honestly:

The one 4*TOWN song was sonically better than most of the songs from Encanto

[phieaglesfan712]

Mar 20, 2022 0:35:08 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Mar 19, 2022 19:12:10 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I like Stay fine enough but I don't think I've voluntarily streamed it since October, so I was shocked to see it's still Top 10 on Spotify. Just a massive hit all around. Wouldn't be shocked if it eventually becomes the biggest streaming hit of all time honestly. 

at this point I think it's Justin's biggest hit. "Sorry" didn't last THIS long did it? They are close, but i think "Stay" has surpassed it recently.

No, Sorry's longevity was about the same as Love Yourself. There really isn't much to separate those songs, but the debate for those songs is for which one is Justin's 2nd biggest song. Stay clearly surpassed both of those songs weeks ago.

[Groovy]

I love how everytime people bring up Justin Bieber’s biggest songs they always forget to mention Despacito and I Don’t Care.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 03 » / « 20 »

1(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 89.86(-0.11)
2(=) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 80.90(-0.40)
3(=) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 80.64(+0.12)
4(=) Justin Bieber - Ghost 78.62(+0.09)
5(=) GAYLE - abcdefu 76.05(-0.93)
6(=) Doja Cat - Woman 70.34(+0.90)
7(+1) Latto - Big Energy 63.75(+0.67)
8(-1) Adele - Easy On Me 62.84(-0.94)
9(=) Imagine Dragons - Enemy From League Of Legends 59.30(+1.15)
10(+1) Post Malone & The Weeknd - One Right Now 57.11(+0.25)

24(+1) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 35.88(+1.05) +

56(+7) Camila Cabello - Bam Bam (feat. Ed Sheeran) 20.97(+1.01) +

59(+7) Megan Thee Stallion & Dua Lipa - Sweetest Pie 20.70(+1.78)

96(+4) Becky G. & KAROL G - MAMIII 13.42(+0.72)

-(-) Jnr Choi - To The Moon 12.68(+0.71)

-(-) Jhay Cortez - Sensual Bebe 2.60(+1.26) +

[Fears in the Fire]

Mar 20, 2022 10:37:52 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So I saw Turning Red (wont spoil anything, Go see it, its really really good) and honestly:

The one 4*TOWN song was sonically better than most of the songs from Encanto

Which one?

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Mar 20, 2022 11:03:46 GMT -5 Fears in the Fire said:

Mar 20, 2022 10:37:52 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

So I saw Turning Red (wont spoil anything, Go see it, its really really good) and honestly:

The one 4*TOWN song was sonically better than most of the songs from Encanto

Which one?

The main one of the movie? There was only one song they sang

[phieaglesfan712]

Mar 19, 2022 17:59:18 GMT -5 enwhy said:

So with Spotify looking more stagnant than ever, I took a look at the 3 longevity queens, Stay, Heat Waves, and Industry Baby. Here's what their weekly Spotify streams & ranking looked like during the third week of each month from July through now:

Stay
Streams: 13M - 14M - 11M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 5M - 5M - 5M
Ranking: 1 - 1 - 3 - 3 - 9 - 11 - 8 - 6 - 5

Heat Waves
Streams: 6M - 5M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 6M - 6M - 7M - 7M
Ranking: 11 - 13 - 6 - 5 - 6 - 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

Industry Baby
Streams: 12M - 14M - 9M - 8M - 7M - 6M - 5M - 4M
Ranking: 2 - 1 - 2 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 7

I feel like these songs were on pretty normal mega-hit trajectories up until the end of last year, just peaked at different times. But since Christmas songs fell off...wow they really are not slowing down much at all. Heat Waves is the craziest, it's consistently managed 6-8M streams per week for more than half a year now. WTF is going on?

The thing that separates Heat Waves and Stay from Industry Baby, at least on the Hot 100, is radio. HW and Stay are the Top 2 on radio, and coincidentally, predicted to be the Top 2 of the Hot 100. Meanwhile, radio dropped IB months ago, and it’s already below much older songs like Levitating and SYT on the Hot 100.

[jenglisbe]

"Ghost Story" remains #1 on I(rrelevant)Tunes. Maybe Carrie can at least get a #1 the Sales chart.

[Fears in the Fire]

Mar 20, 2022 11:33:04 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Mar 20, 2022 11:03:46 GMT -5 Fears in the Fire said:

Which one?

The main one of the movie? There was only one song they sang

Sorry I was looking at the soundtrack trying to figure out which I should listen to and they have three there

[jaffery]

In my opinion, love yourself is Bieber biggest hit. It is still his most streamed song but it also has insane pure sales and YouTube views, and it's doing 750k daily Spotify streams even though it came out in 2015.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Mar 20, 2022 12:57:08 GMT -5 jaffery said:

In my opinion, love yourself is Bieber biggest hit. It is still his most streamed song but it also has insane pure sales and YouTube views, and it's doing 750k daily Spotify streams even though it came out in 2015.

Love Yourself has 150M streams more than Sorry on Spotify, but Sorry has 2B views more on YT.

[king_billboard_100]

Stay can return to no. 1?

[kindofbiased]

Anything's possible but I don't see Stay returning to #1, the real competition rn is between #2 and #5, Heat Waves has a pretty healthy lead at #1 rn (at least compared to everything else charting)

[phieaglesfan712]

If Stay was anywhere near its peak now, the OTR record would have likely been broken. Stay had 14 weeks with over 300 charting points. No song has even recorded a 300-point charting week post holiday season. Furthermore, Stay didn’t drop below the point total Heat Waves has this week until its 29th or 30th week on the chart.

I’m amazed at how Stay wasn’t #1 in half the weeks it had over 300 points, losing out to 6 different songs (PTD, Butter, Way 2 Sexy, My Universe, Industry Baby, and Easy On Me). Considering how competitive the charts were just months ago, it’s pretty sad to see how dead these charts are right now.

[kindofbiased]

Goes to show how quickly the charts can turn SUPER boring. Then again it also goes to show how quickly they can get super exciting again, just a matter of time

[NeRD]

Hoping Woman can go Top 10 within the next couple weeks.

[enwhy]

Mar 20, 2022 20:15:36 GMT -5 NeRD said:

Hoping Woman can go Top 10 within the next couple weeks.

At the rate radio's giving it spins, it could very well be top 5 in a couple weeks. Plus it's been gaining on streaming too. It helps that the rest of the top 10 is pretty much all dropping now.

[dodgerslakers94]

At this point, I want Ariana Grande to drop a surprise album ffs. Shoot, I don’t mind another Taylor’s Version tbh.