kimberly
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Post by kimberly on May 4, 2022 3:23:23 GMT -5
I guess we'll see how it shakes out but Bad Bunny certainly feels like the bigger artist to me. Maybe it's a California thing. Bad Bunny played a 20,000-seat arena last month while Jack Harlow played a 3,000-seat theater earlier this year. It was before "First Class" came out, but I don't think his fanbase has grown enough to bridge that gap with one mediocre song that relies heavily on the sample and millennial/gen z nostalgia.
Bad Bunny will also deliver 23 brand new songs, while Jack Harlow's album has 15 songs—2 of which are out already. That itself might be enough to secure the No. 1 for Bad Bunny, even if they average the same exact number of streaming units per each track.
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Post by thegreatdivine on May 4, 2022 3:31:53 GMT -5
Bad Bunny may do something like 200k, which would give him the #1 on most weeks, but I think Jack should pull at least 250-275k. It's not that Bad Bunny isn't big, it's that Jack is bigger 250-275k seems unrealistic for Jack. He's gotten bigger but not that bigger. I don't even see Post Malone's next album debuting with 250-275k units.
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Post by thegreatdivine on May 4, 2022 3:36:23 GMT -5
I wonder if you guys will have anything to say if this album turns out to have 20+ tracks, seeing as everyone here apparently hates long albums.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on May 4, 2022 5:26:22 GMT -5
Bad Bunny may do something like 200k, which would give him the #1 on most weeks, but I think Jack should pull at least 250-275k. It's not that Bad Bunny isn't big, it's that Jack is bigger What are you talking about lmao Bad Bunny has the biggest fanbase, he's the bigger act. One massive hit song will have given Jack more exposure but his fanbase is not as big as San Benito
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Post by chingaling on May 4, 2022 7:36:21 GMT -5
Bad Bunny may do something like 200k, which would give him the #1 on most weeks, but I think Jack should pull at least 250-275k. It's not that Bad Bunny isn't big, it's that Jack is bigger Bad Bunny is the most listened to artist in Spotify in the WORLD!!! A lot of his strenght comes from Latin America and Spain, of course... but USA contributes with handsome numbers too, he already topped BB200 without singing a word in English. Don't count him out. For me, he is the main contender for number one.
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Post by chingaling on May 4, 2022 7:37:46 GMT -5
I mean what artists even have completely separate songs with the same title? Various. Gaga - Fashion (2009, 2013) Jay-Z - Anything (1999, 2006) Kylie Mingoue - Love At First Sight (1988, 2001) Madonna - Forbidden Love (1995, 2005) A classic example is George Michael with "Freedom". Both songs were hits.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on May 4, 2022 7:59:25 GMT -5
She would have challenged for a Top 10 on the Hot 100 if she had released on Friday. Interesting spotify numbers.
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on May 4, 2022 8:06:51 GMT -5
Random question…anyone know why And So It Goes by Billy Joel is at #25 at iTunes (with no discount)? Great song but released in the 80’s. Someone sing it in a singing competition?
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mms82
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Post by mms82 on May 4, 2022 8:32:55 GMT -5
Random question…anyone know why And So It Goes by Billy Joel is at #25 at iTunes (with no discount)? Great song but released in the 80’s. Someone sing it in a singing competition? One person in Oregon and one in North Carolina coincidentally remembered the song at the same time and both decided to buy it, and these two whole sales sent it skyrocketing up the charts all the way to #25
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firefox
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Post by firefox on May 4, 2022 8:35:57 GMT -5
We have a new Bad Bunny and Post Malone albums coming out but we still don't have a Bad Bunny x Post Malone collab yet?? Life is unfair.
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loveless
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Post by loveless on May 4, 2022 10:07:04 GMT -5
Speaking of album debuts:
Fine Line opened at 478k, before Billboard removed merch/concert bundles.
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Post by ontopofthis on May 4, 2022 10:22:26 GMT -5
Are people really expecting Jack Harlow to open higher than Bad Bunny? It seems reasonable, he has a current smash #1 hit and two previous big hits, and Bad Bunny, while performing very well for a Latin artist, hasn't really had major crossover success yet. What were the opening numbers of his previous albums? One song that is viral on tik tok pushing the guy to an opening over 4x his other one? We just have to see on Saturday because yeah, no
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Post by ontopofthis on May 4, 2022 10:24:50 GMT -5
Do not trust those Hits "projections." For starters, they are just guesses because they are not based upon any data. Post Malone is not doing 275,000 either. That right there is all you need to see that they are nonsense
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joshtheking
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Post by joshtheking on May 4, 2022 10:27:25 GMT -5
I'm confused how they can project an album's debut numbers before its even released???
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 4, 2022 10:28:12 GMT -5
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Post by ontopofthis on May 4, 2022 10:29:11 GMT -5
She would have challenged for a Top 10 on the Hot 100 if she had released on Friday. Interesting spotify numbers. The female pop industry is such a struggle industry nowadays. The 2010s heydays of the female pop star are through. Guys are just going to continuing be a the dominate force within the industry. I blame the stan culture for female pop msuic becoming so niche now
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Post by ontopofthis on May 4, 2022 10:30:02 GMT -5
I'm confused how they can project an album's debut numbers before its even released??? You can with data, but those are just guesses because they are not using any data
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Post by After Minutes on May 4, 2022 10:48:51 GMT -5
Bad Bunny's global numbers just aren't going to translate into the US lol. Jack Harlow is definitely the bigger artist of the two in the US at this point. He has scored 2 number ones in the past half a year. Yes, Bad Bunny is still very popular in the States, it's just that he is nowhere as accessible due to the language barrier. Jack Harlow picked up massively in the last year, and especially in the last few months. By the end of the year he and Lil Baby should establish themselves as unquestionably top 5 rappers in the game. Bad Bunny may still be bigger globally, but the US is a whole different ballpark
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ddlz
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Post by ddlz on May 4, 2022 10:55:02 GMT -5
Post will be lucky if he does 150k. As for Jack Harlow vs Bad Bunny, I'll just leave this here.
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on May 4, 2022 11:37:31 GMT -5
Bad Bunny is definitely accessible in the states he's absolutely massive here. I don't see how, even with a big #1 single, Jack Harlow has a chance to outdo Bad Bunny on the album charts when he's only on his second album and his album is 8 tracks shorter
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on May 4, 2022 11:47:48 GMT -5
I'm confused how they can project an album's debut numbers before its even released??? My guess is that it’s based on some sort of projections using past data. I think it’s common for budget and planning but it’s still a pretty rough estimate.
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Post by nathanalbright on May 4, 2022 11:48:30 GMT -5
Random question…anyone know why And So It Goes by Billy Joel is at #25 at iTunes (with no discount)? Great song but released in the 80’s. Someone sing it in a singing competition? One person in Oregon and one in North Carolina coincidentally remembered the song at the same time and both decided to buy it, and these two whole sales sent it skyrocketing up the charts all the way to #25 Sorry, I'm the person in Oregon who really loves this song, and it's part of my own repertoire for variety shows and the like. Anyway, Billy Joel released a career retrospective that included this song and it was probably pretty popular to those fans of his that listened to that album, as this was one of the more obscure songs from it.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on May 4, 2022 12:00:26 GMT -5
I'm confused how they can project an album's debut numbers before its even released??? My guess is that it’s based on some sort of projections using past data. I think it’s common for budget and planning but it’s still a pretty rough estimate. Attachment DeletedYes. My friend who worked at Sony would send me their internal new release schedule that had the 1st week expected sales figures. Of course this was back when there were more record stores and cds were the main seller. The attachment is from August 2013.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 4, 2022 12:03:33 GMT -5
kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 05 » / « 04 »
1(=) Imagine Dragons - Enemy From League Of Legends 88.37(-0.42) 2(=) Latto - Big Energy 85.10(-0.41) 3(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 79.30(-0.49) 4(+1) Harry Styles - As It Was 76.95(+1.53) 5(-1) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 75.26(-0.16) 6(=) Lil Nas X - Thats What I Want 72.03(-0.59) 7(=) Doja Cat - Woman 66.09(-0.38) 8(=) Justin Bieber - Ghost 65.93(-0.31) 9(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 59.49(+0.12) 10(=) Post Malone & The Weeknd - One Right Now 50.65(-1.70)
11(+3) Jack Harlow - First Class 45.28(+1.96)
18(+2) Dove Cameron - Boyfriend 39.78(+1.08)
52(+1) Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You 24.38(+0.71)
55(+1) Parmalee - Take My Name 22.56(+0.71) 67(+3) The Kid LAROI - Thousand Miles 18.58(+1.05)
-(-) Sam Smith - Love Me More 11.75(+1.52) ++ -(-) Future - WAIT FOR U (feat. Drake & Tems) 7.64(+2.26) +
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mms82
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Post by mms82 on May 4, 2022 12:16:39 GMT -5
My guess is that it’s based on some sort of projections using past data. I think it’s common for budget and planning but it’s still a pretty rough estimate. <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> Yes. My friend who worked at Sony would send me their internal new release schedule that had the 1st week expected sales figures. Of course this was back when there were more record stores and cds were the main seller. The attachment is from August 2013. I know it's because of the Amazon 99¢ sale, but Gaga's "previous week 1" selling 1,108k is wild given Drake was unable to top 1M with Scorpion and Swift was unable to top 1M with Folklore, I doubt we'll see a 1,000K+ week one SPS ever unless there is a readjustment in streaming SPS numbers
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on May 4, 2022 12:16:49 GMT -5
US Spotify - 05/03/22
1(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 1,813,527 (-33,991) 2(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 1,596,693 (+19,234) 3(=) Future, Tems, Drake - WAIT FOR U 1,179,517 (-35,815) 4(=) Future - PUFFIN ON ZOOTIES 1,148,280 (+24,520) 5(+2) Lizzo - About Damn Time 891,662 (+109,913) 6(-1) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 849,188 (+5,542) 7(-1) Future, Drake - IM ON ONE 805,522 (-31,127) 8(=) Future - 712PM 625,149 (-65,712) 9(+1) Lil Nas X - INDUSTRY BABY 595,221 (+5,973) 10(+2) The Kid LAROI - STAY 575,539 (+8,489)
Future - I NEVER LIKED YOU 19(-10) I'M DAT N**** 507,407 (-113,560) 23(-10) KEEP IT BURNIN 480,646 (-65,596) 27(-6) LOVE YOU BETTER 464,391 (-34,487) 35(-12) MASSAGING ME 435,339 (-52,308) 50(-15) GOLD STACKS 383,714 (-59,779) 53(-20) FOR A NUT 368,623 (-81,252) 60(-11) CHICKENS 356,017 (-49,975) 86(-29) HOLY GHOST 314,950 (-49,298) 101(-36) WE JUS WANNA GET HIGH 294,071 (-46,932) 102(DEBUT) LIKE ME 293,871 107(-30) VOODOO 286,777 (-41,803) 188(-75) BACK TO BASICS 238,791 (-39,680) Total Streams: 8,183,065 (-8%)
Others: 11(=) J. Cole - No Role Modelz 575,408 (-556) 12(+2) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 550,563 (+5,620) 13(+2) Doja Cat - Woman 535,487 (+2,273) 14(+2) WILLOW - Wait a Minute! 521,352 (-5,242) 15(+9) KAROL G - PROVENZA 520,674 (+37,805) 16(+2) Imagine Dragons - Enemy 515,502 (+4,344) 17(=) Justin Bieber - Ghost 514,993 (-7,310) 18(+4) Justin Bieber, Don Toliver - Honest 509,020 (+11,264) 20(=) The Kid Laroi - Thousand Miles 489,603 (-11,024) 21(-2) Arctic Monkeys - 505 489,281 (-21,048) 24(+3) Kodak Black - Super Gremlin 480,426 (+10,164) 26(+6) Becky G, KAROL G - MAMIII 466,970 (+13,266) 28(-3) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 463,138 (-13,494) 30(-1) The Walters - I Love You So 452,821 (-13,228) 31(+3) Camila Cabello - Bam Bam 452,668 (+4,153) 32(+4) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 448,087 (+4,704) 33(+7) Jack Harlow - Nail Tech 441,617 (+14,604) 34(-4) Morgan Wallen - Don't Think Jesus 437,782 (-27,813) 36(+3) Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You 430,939 (+2,060) 38(=) Tyler the Creator - See You Again 424,655 (-9,023) 40(+2) Dove Cameron - Boyfriend 418,536 (+1,380) 42(+5) Elley Duhé - MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT 415,912 (+6,407) 46(+6) Lauren Spencer-Smith - Flowers 400,318 (+4,466) 48(+2) Yeat - Monëy so big 394,448 (-7,555) 49(+4) Frank Ocean - Lost 385,584 (-2,780) 54(+8) Post Malone - One Right Now 361,877 (+8,870) 55(+5) Leah Kate - 10 Things I Hate About You 360,957 (+5,258) 57(+19) Cafuné - Tek It 360,339 (+28,394) 59(+5) Lil Baby - Right On 357,439 (+15,354) 62(-1) Em Beihold - Numb Little Bug 350,807 (-3,227) 66(-12) Benson Boone - In The Stars 338,087 (-32,706) 69(+3) Tyler the Creator - NEW MAGIC WAND 333,937 (-3,021) 72(+7) Lil Tjay - In My Head 331,765 (+3,346) 76(+9) Tiësto, Ava Max - The Motto 324,667 (+7,929) 80(+8) Ruth B. - Dandelions 320,063 (+6,232) 81(-44) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 318,958 (-122,968) 85(+5) Tate McRae - she's all i wanna be 315,564 (+2,311) 87(+7) The Rare Occasions - Notion 313,101 (+3,423) 89(+2) Beach House - Space Song 312,370 (-105) 90(+7) Lil Durk - What Happened To Virgil 311,591-303,224 (+8,367) 92(+7) Latto - Big Energy 309,388 (+10,148)
109(+8) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 283,442 (+7,621) 110(+1) Megan Thee Stallion - Plan B 283,100 (+2,467) 111(-4) The Neighbourhood - Softcore 282,791 (-5,297) 112(+7) Megan Thee Stallion, Dua Lipa - Sweetest Pie 282,785 (+8,050) 120(+48) Lil Tjay - Goin Up 275,584 (+24,980) 127(+11) Lil Baby - In a Minute 272,185 (+8,187) 136(-1) Yahritza Y Su Esencia - Soy El Unico 268,617 (+2,569) 137(-36) PSY - That That 268,531 (-28,729) 139(-9) Vundabar - Alien Blues 267,257 (-1,425) 142(-3) Young Nudy, 21 Savage - EA 266,132 (+3,212) 144(+12) Daddy Yankee, Bad Bunny - X ÚLTIMA VEZ 264,799 (+9,137) 153(+12) Pusha T, Lil Uzi Vert, Don Toliver - Scrape It Off 259,761 (+9,012) 158(-38) Lil Baby - Frozen 257,738 (-16,832) 159(-18) Morgan Wallen - Cover Me Up 256,549 (-5,670) 169(+11) Shawn Mendes - When You're Gone 249,028 (+5,166) 172(-13) ERNEST - Flower Shops 247,279 (-5,392) 175(-2) Cody Johnson - 'Til You Can't 246,828 (-1,987) 176(re-entry) Khalid - Skyline 246,268 186(-2) Nicky Youre, dazy - Sunroof 239,851 (-1,139) 187(re-entry) SleazyWorld Go - Sleazy Flow 235,308 193(-6) BoyWithUke - IDGAF 235,087 (-3,750) 194(re-entry) Rauw Alejandro, Chencho Corleone - Desesperados 234,978
Top 10 without Future: 1. As It Was 2. First Class 3. About Damn Time 4. Heat Waves 5. INDUSTRY BABY 6. STAY 7. No Role Modelz 8. good 4 u 9. Woman 10. Wait a Minute!
Biggest Gains (50K+): About Damn Time
Gaga's song didn't chart and considering how big Future's debut was, it doesn't seem like it would've even if it was released on Friday. Maybe if the song was any good, it would've charted 🤷
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on May 4, 2022 12:18:38 GMT -5
Bad Bunny's global numbers just aren't going to translate into the US lol. Jack Harlow is definitely the bigger artist of the two in the US at this point. He has scored 2 number ones in the past half a year. Yes, Bad Bunny is still very popular in the States, it's just that he is nowhere as accessible due to the language barrier. Jack Harlow picked up massively in the last year, and especially in the last few months. By the end of the year he and Lil Baby should establish themselves as unquestionably top 5 rappers in the game. Bad Bunny may still be bigger globally, but the US is a whole different ballpark Um, have u seen Bad Bunny's number for his albums?? ??
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on May 4, 2022 12:28:15 GMT -5
Apologies but to triple post but it seems like we won't get a BTS album bomb. "Anthology album" is just their way of saying "Greatest Hits". There are only 3 new original sogns.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on May 4, 2022 12:28:26 GMT -5
Bad Bunny is going to easily do better than Jack Harlow imo. Bad Bunny's 2020 album is still charting top 15. He is absolutely Morgan/Lil Baby level.
Bad Bunny, Morgan Wallen, and Lil Baby are the top 3 men to breakthrough this decade.
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tommy1860
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Post by tommy1860 on May 4, 2022 12:28:49 GMT -5
About Damn Time is really increasing on Apple Music too. It’s up to 28 right now, and that’s with 16 Future songs ahead of it. You love to see it.
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