Billboard Hot 100: 11/12/2022

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

[NeRD]

Interested to see how this will help Lift Me Up, if any.

[Az Paynter]

Nov 2, 2022 12:16:14 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Nov 2, 2022 11:14:27 GMT -5 85la said:

Right, we were wondering specifically about the Mainstream Top 40/Pop Airplay chart though, which I wasn't able to find. I think some songs topped 100 million AI there.

Ed Sheeran’s “Shape Of You” holds the record for the song with the most listener impressions on Pop radio - 132M AI as per Mediabase. It also holds the spins record on Pop too.

Actually it doesn't anymore. That record now belongs to 24kGoldn f/ Iann Dior - "Mood"; I don't remember the exact spin count but it broke 20k spins which 'Shape Of You' never did.

The spin record COULD potentially be broken again, but the audience record almost certainly never will.

[iHype.]

^ Wakanda Forever tracklist.


Lack of superstars this time (the first Soundtrack had Kendrick, Weeknd, SZA, Travis, Khalid, and Future) -- just Rihanna, and a Future feature.

More rising international acts instead - this Soundtrack probably won't do nearly as well first week or have strong Hot 100 charting. 

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 2, 2022 13:15:50 GMT -5 enwhy said:

There's more uncertainty than usual this week because no one knows how Billboard will handle the radio switch from Nielsen/Luminate to Mediabase. Arguably the simplest method would be to just plug in the new numbers without changing the formula. This would give all songs with substantial airplay a boost.

Here's how it would impact Winston's prediction if you swap in Mediabase numbers:


All songs without significant radio would fall - namely, Taylor's album tracks and Shirt would all drop several spots. Vegas (22->12) and Sunroof (19->9) would see the biggest boosts, which makes sense seeing as they're the most radio-driven tracks right now.

Such an increase would increase the points gained this week towards the 2022 Year-End Hot 100 and might shift the positions up a position or two in the best cases scenario. In the case of Unholy, it seems that the change would probably make it quite likely it would be the last song to manage to make it.

[kierz7]

Nov 2, 2022 13:44:21 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Nov 2, 2022 12:16:14 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Ed Sheeran’s “Shape Of You” holds the record for the song with the most listener impressions on Pop radio - 132M AI as per Mediabase. It also holds the spins record on Pop too.

Actually it doesn't anymore. That record now belongs to 24kGoldn f/ Iann Dior - "Mood"; I don't remember the exact spin count but it broke 20k spins which 'Shape Of You' never did.

The spin record COULD potentially be broken again, but the audience record almost certainly never will.

“Mood”?

Oh wow. 💀

I wouldn’t have expected that song, of all songs, to break the spins record. I recall “SOY” peaking at or around 19700 spins and that song broke “Bad Blood’s” record.

Also, yes, unless radio is recalibrated again completely, and new panels are added across multiple formats, I don’t believe audience impressions will even peak at 150M+ on overall radio.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

[dremolus - solarpunk]

The other Rihanna song must've been snapped away.

Definitely not gonna be as big as the first soundtrack. Only big names are Rihanna, Stormzy, Tems, Future and Burna Boy.

I wasn't really excited to listen given I thought the first soundtrack was good but could've been better and Lift Me Up killed all of my hype. Looking at the acts though, will probably be passable but forgettable. PinkPantheress and Tobe Nwigwe on a Marvel project sounds cool though, even if it's on a song with CKay. I at least do appreciate them bringing in more African acts this time around, they only had 1 or 2 for the first album.

[mikerivera]

Nov 2, 2022 13:28:50 GMT -5 ethansdelicate said:

Nov 1, 2022 18:27:13 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Yes, it could have been #1 if it was popular.

It's wild to me it could be #2 as it doesn't feel that popular at all. Its streaming eroded quickly, and while radio may be a different audience, it also feels like this crazy start at radio is just off initial hype/promo. I'm interested to see how it holds up at radio next week.

yeah, out of the top 15 on both AM and Spotify is crazy... even on iTunes, the only place it had a lead, it's now been overtaken by Taylor too. The fact that it has similar radio adds to Easy On Me is just ridiculous... at least the general public was streaming EOM. 

What’s crazier to me is that it’s getting added faster than Anti Hero. Even though Anti Hero is a week older, has had much more lasting impact on streaming, is the lead single from the biggest album of the year by the current biggest artist in the world. Like I get this is Rihanna’s first new song since 2017, but it’s not even part of an actual Rihanna album

[iHype.]

Between Lift Me Up being a bizzare comeback single and the second song coming Friday not being apart of the Soundtrack despite the media specifically saying it was… well we are already back to Rihanna’s messy planned eras after two weeks.

[kierz7]

Nov 2, 2022 14:47:29 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Between Lift Me Up being a bizzare comeback single and the second song coming Friday not being apart of the Soundtrack despite the media specifically saying it was… well we are already back to Rihanna’s messy planned eras after two weeks.

💀

She truly is back.

I can’t wait to live the #R9 era we did “Talk That Talk, Unapologetic & ANTI”.

[85la]

Nov 2, 2022 14:37:27 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 2, 2022 13:28:50 GMT -5 ethansdelicate said:

yeah, out of the top 15 on both AM and Spotify is crazy... even on iTunes, the only place it had a lead, it's now been overtaken by Taylor too. The fact that it has similar radio adds to Easy On Me is just ridiculous... at least the general public was streaming EOM. 

What’s crazier to me is that it’s getting added faster than Anti Hero. Even though Anti Hero is a week older, has had much more lasting impact on streaming, is the lead single from the biggest album of the year by the current biggest artist in the world. Like I get this is Rihanna’s first new song since 2017, but it’s not even part of an actual Rihanna album

It just dawned on me that we don't actually know this yet. Who knows, maybe they were planning on this also potentially being the lead for her next album, based on how it performs. This is done all the time of course, not just for soundtrack singles, but all singles, record labels decide whether they will be part of albums based on how they perform, retroactively labeling them the "leads" if they smash, and one-off singles if they fail.

[jenglisbe]

Nov 2, 2022 14:47:29 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Between Lift Me Up being a bizzare comeback single and the second song coming Friday not being apart of the Soundtrack despite the media specifically saying it was… well we are already back to Rihanna’s messy planned eras after two weeks.

Had media actually seen/heard the soundtrack, or were people making assumptions because the song is in the movie?

My first thought was Rihanna didn’t deliver/finish the song in time to make the physical soundtrack, but presumably they needed it finished for the movie before the soundtrack so that probably isn’t the reason. Maybe they are holding it back to then promote it on its own once “LMU” is done. It would be super easy to add the song onto the soundtrack on streaming services in the future, so keeping it off for now means it won’t burn out by the time it’s release as a single.

[Music Fan]

Nov 2, 2022 15:18:57 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 2, 2022 14:47:29 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Between Lift Me Up being a bizzare comeback single and the second song coming Friday not being apart of the Soundtrack despite the media specifically saying it was… well we are already back to Rihanna’s messy planned eras after two weeks.

Had media actually seen/heard the soundtrack, or were people making assumptions because the song is in the movie?

My first thought was Rihanna didn’t deliver/finish the song in time to make the physical soundtrack, but presumably they needed it finished for the movie before the soundtrack so that probably isn’t the reason. Maybe they are holding it back to then promote it on its own once “LMU” is done. It would be super easy to add the song onto the soundtrack on streaming services in the future, so keeping it off for now means it won’t burn out by the time it’s release as a single.

Isn't the second song being released this Friday, though?

[enwhy]

Thriller wound up with about the same streaming total as last year over the Halloween week. Since the chart week lined up better this year, it's likely chart in the 20-30 range with around 15M streams.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

[iHype.]

Nov 2, 2022 15:18:57 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 2, 2022 14:47:29 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Between Lift Me Up being a bizzare comeback single and the second song coming Friday not being apart of the Soundtrack despite the media specifically saying it was… well we are already back to Rihanna’s messy planned eras after two weeks.

Had media actually seen/heard the soundtrack, or were people making assumptions because the song is in the movie?

My first thought was Rihanna didn’t deliver/finish the song in time to make the physical soundtrack, but presumably they needed it finished for the movie before the soundtrack so that probably isn’t the reason. Maybe they are holding it back to then promote it on its own once “LMU” is done. It would be super easy to add the song onto the soundtrack on streaming services in the future, so keeping it off for now means it won’t burn out by the time it’s release as a single.

A NY Times journalist was the one who said they heard it during the end credits themselves during an early screening.

They seem as credible as a journalist can be considering they directly talk to Hollywood’s elite and have first hand access to upcoming movies.

There could be a Deluxe version of the Soundtrack maybe.

[kierz7]

Nov 2, 2022 15:18:57 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 2, 2022 14:47:29 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Between Lift Me Up being a bizzare comeback single and the second song coming Friday not being apart of the Soundtrack despite the media specifically saying it was… well we are already back to Rihanna’s messy planned eras after two weeks.

Had media actually seen/heard the soundtrack, or were people making assumptions because the song is in the movie?

My first thought was Rihanna didn’t deliver/finish the song in time to make the physical soundtrack, but presumably they needed it finished for the movie before the soundtrack so that probably isn’t the reason. Maybe they are holding it back to then promote it on its own once “LMU” is done. It would be super easy to add the song onto the soundtrack on streaming services in the future, so keeping it off for now means it won’t burn out by the time it’s release as a single.

Yes.

New York Times (Writer). He’s been writing about Rihanna and ‘BP’ all week.

[jenglisbe]

iHype. and kierz7 I think you misread my post/question. I know it’s in the movie, I asked if anyone had actually heard the soundtrack. Those tweets you posted say it was in the movie, not that it was on the soundtrack. It’s not uncommon for songs to be in a movie but not on the soundtrack.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 2, 2022 14:37:27 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 2, 2022 13:28:50 GMT -5 ethansdelicate said:

yeah, out of the top 15 on both AM and Spotify is crazy... even on iTunes, the only place it had a lead, it's now been overtaken by Taylor too. The fact that it has similar radio adds to Easy On Me is just ridiculous... at least the general public was streaming EOM. 

What’s crazier to me is that it’s getting added faster than Anti Hero. Even though Anti Hero is a week older, has had much more lasting impact on streaming, is the lead single from the biggest album of the year by the current biggest artist in the world. Like I get this is Rihanna’s first new song since 2017, but it’s not even part of an actual Rihanna album

Regarding this, the first week adds don't tend to be indicative of how a song will perform at radio in the long run once the the "financial incentive" runs out. Lift Me Up's daily gains on its second week will probably be slightly higher than those that of Anti-Hero, but it might not be able to return to the weekly audience at the end of the first week if Billboard indeed uses the Mediabase audience for for both weeks. It will interesting to see what kind of drop it will get on Friday's Mediabse radio audience.

[iHype.]

Nov 2, 2022 15:38:56 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

iHype. and kierz7 I think you misread my post/question. I know it’s in the movie, I asked if anyone had actually heard the soundtrack. Those tweets you posted say it was in the movie, not that it was on the soundtrack. It’s not uncommon for songs to be in a movie but not on the soundtrack.

Usually older hits are used in a movie but not in a soundtrack, I’ve never heard of a brand new song being premiered in a movie but not in a Soundtrack.

But until the song/movie drops we can speculate anything

[jenglisbe]

Nov 2, 2022 15:43:40 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Nov 2, 2022 15:38:56 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

iHype. and kierz7 I think you misread my post/question. I know it’s in the movie, I asked if anyone had actually heard the soundtrack. Those tweets you posted say it was in the movie, not that it was on the soundtrack. It’s not uncommon for songs to be in a movie but not on the soundtrack.

Usually older hits are used in a movie but not in a soundtrack, I’ve never heard of a brand new song being premiered in a movie but not in a Soundtrack.

But until the song/movie drops we can speculate anything

Yeah it is usually older songs that get left off, but Mariah’s “Almost Home” wasn’t on the Oz the Great and Powerful soundtrack.

Again, I was just addressing you saying people had said it was on the soundtrack. It seems more like they were just saying it was in the movie. I still think it could be because they are holding the song until it’s promoted. In the streaming age it’s super easy to just add a song to an album; being left off initially doesn’t mean it can’t be quickly added at any point. But yeah, it’s speculation.

[thegreatdivine]

One time for this classic bop.

[fridayteenage]

Hope the radio ratio is adjusted so it has the same exact impact as last week

[NeRD]

Nov 2, 2022 15:31:25 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

I wonder how this will impact the predictions.

[nighttime]

Even if "Lift Me Up" was the biggest smash of the year, I don't think another song that just happens to be on the soundtrack would be expected to do anything?

[85la]

Nov 2, 2022 15:31:25 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Questioning the credibility of that account, as those sales seem a bit high, and I'm not seeing where Billboard is reporting that.

Also, in regards to the second song's use in the film, I guess it's also possible that they're pulling the song not just from the soundtrack but from the film itself as well? That reporter saw an early cut of the film I'm assuming, and they could technically remove it from the ending credits last minute before the official release, as last minute edits are sometimes made to films.

[KeepDeanWeird]

So Under the Influence would've been Top 10 except for Taylor last week. This chart week's predictions don't show it moving up *and* next week's chart will be swarmed by Drake. Perhaps, we can have nice things.

LMU as a radio darling is perplexing. I love RiRi, but I couldn't even get through 2 minutes. It seems destined to be a station switcher, especially seeing the massive drop in streams. At least she acknowledged we want a banger.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Nov 2, 2022 18:33:04 GMT -5 85la said:

Nov 2, 2022 15:31:25 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Questioning the credibility of that account, as those sales seem a bit high, and I'm not seeing where Billboard is reporting that.

Trending Up: Rihanna and Meghan Trainor Make Two Very Different Pop Comebacks

"Just one week after Taylor Swift’s Midnights was released to historic impact, we got an even longer-anticipated return from a global pop icon: Rihanna, who released her first new single in six years with the Def Jam-released Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ballad “Lift Me Up.” The song debuted with nearly eight million official on-demand U.S. streams and 16,000 in sales on Oct. 28, and racked up another 6.9 million streams and 11,000 sales over the next two days, all according to Luminate.

Those numbers should portend a major Billboard Hot 100 debut for the single, though how deep it can strike into the Swift stronghold atop the chart currently remains to be seen. (A strong radio showing should also help: “Lift Me Up” registered 26.3 million in radio audience on pop, adult, rhythmic and R&B/hip-hop stations combined in its first three days (Oct. 28-30), 10 million better than even Swift’s Hot 100-topping “Anti-Hero” over the same period the prior week.)"

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

c'mon Rih, get that 2020s #1 and join the 00s/10s/20s #1s club. Really don't like this situation, since I love Anti-Hero and want it to be a 4-week #1 at least, but I also want that 15th #1 for Rih.