Billboard Hot 100: 11/12/2022

[colson]

She'll get that 15th #1 regardless of whether it's next week or the next single. It's inevitable.

[ghostin]

The pure sales figure from Billboard for Lift Me Up make absolutely no sense. Did Ron Perry join the Roc Nation/Disney team? 

[nighttime]

Nov 2, 2022 19:34:06 GMT -5 ghostin said:

The pure sales figure from Billboard for Lift Me Up make absolutely no sense. Did Ron Perry join the Roc Nation/Disney team? 

Well it was only #2 on iTunes for a day(ish) behind a BTS member song that was 69 cents. By the next day Lift Me Up had risen to #1, and only moved to #2 today.

So clearly both the BTS song and LMU were selling big numbers the first day, which is what those sales numbers project, and then LMU remained high for longer. BTS has an active fanbase, so it's not surprising to me that it'd have a massive launch in its first few hours.

[iHype.]

Rihanna is like the artist with the most #1's that doesn't have any head-scratching ones imo. All of them were notable hits of their year and are relatively well remembered from their year, so on the flip side I love that and it'd be annoying seeing this song next to them.

Hell, I don't even think she had any top 5s that were truly flukes until this one.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Ten songs from Midnights out of the top 18 currently is quite a surprise for me. An even greater surprise is seeing Bejeweled at #2 there. Had it been any of the songs besides Anti-Hero that debuted above it in the Hot 100 last week, it wouldn't be as much of a surprise to me.

[kierz7]

💀

[firefox]

The 8th day rolling effect for LMU will be interesting.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

The Billboard article that mentions Life Me Up's numbers for its three first days:

Trending Up: Rihanna and Meghan Trainor Make Two Very Different Pop Comebacks

11/2/2022

By Jason Lipshutz, Andrew Unterberger 

Just one week after Taylor Swift’s Midnights was released to historic impact, we got an even longer-anticipated return from a global pop icon: Rihanna, who released her first new single in six years with the Def Jam-released Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ballad “Lift Me Up.” The song debuted with nearly eight million official on-demand U.S. streams and 16,000 in sales on Oct. 28, and racked up another 6.9 million streams and 11,000 sales over the next two days, all according to Luminate. Those numbers should portend a major Billboard Hot 100 debut for the single, though how deep it can strike into the Swift stronghold atop the chart currently remains to be seen. (A strong radio showing should also help: “Lift Me Up” registered 26.3 million in radio audience on pop, adult, rhythmic and R&B/hip-hop stations combined in its first three days (Oct. 28-30), 10 million better than even Swift’s Hot 100-topping “Anti-Hero” over the same period the prior week.)

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[kierz7]

Nov 2, 2022 20:18:23 GMT -5 firefox said:

The 8th day rolling effect for LMU will be interesting.

Why is that?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

^^ it should be noted that this prediction came out before that Billboard article.

[jenglisbe]

Nov 2, 2022 20:14:31 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Nov 2, 2022 20:01:34 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Rihanna is like the artist with the most #1's that doesn't have any head-scratching ones imo. All of them were notable hits of their year and are relatively well remembered from their year, so on the flip side I love that and it'd be annoying seeing this song next to them.

Hell, I don't even think she had any top 5s that were truly flukes until this one.

Mariah Carey’s 15th #1, “Thank God I Found You”, was a ballad that nobody genuinely remembers today, not even her fans,

This isn't true at all. I agree it isn't well-remembered generally, but her fans certainly remember it lol. (I think it's a beautiful melody.)

Sony was accused of pulling various shady tactics the week it jumped to #1.

Lol ok. It rose in sales 9% that week to 118,000 total, but more so it had the second largest airplay gain of any song on the Hot 100 that week. "I Knew I Loved You" was falling in sales and airplay at that point, and the week prior to "TGIFY" moving to #1, Billboard even noted the big sales drop for "IKILY" boded well for "TGIFY." The next week "IKILY" took the #1 position back because it gained in radio impressions again; it actually hit its highest total impressions to that point that week (109 million), even though it had been declining for a few weeks prior. "TGIFY" actually moved to #1 on the R&B chart that week, though.

[jenglisbe]

Nov 2, 2022 20:19:50 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

The Billboard article that mentions Life Me Up's numbers for its three first days:

Trending Up: Rihanna and Meghan Trainor Make Two Very Different Pop Comebacks

11/2/2022

By Jason Lipshutz, Andrew Unterberger 

Just one week after Taylor Swift’s Midnights was released to historic impact, we got an even longer-anticipated return from a global pop icon: Rihanna, who released her first new single in six years with the Def Jam-released Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ballad “Lift Me Up.” The song debuted with nearly eight million official on-demand U.S. streams and 16,000 in sales on Oct. 28, and racked up another 6.9 million streams and 11,000 sales over the next two days, all according to Luminate. Those numbers should portend a major Billboard Hot 100 debut for the single, though how deep it can strike into the Swift stronghold atop the chart currently remains to be seen. (A strong radio showing should also help: “Lift Me Up” registered 26.3 million in radio audience on pop, adult, rhythmic and R&B/hip-hop stations combined in its first three days (Oct. 28-30), 10 million better than even Swift’s Hot 100-topping “Anti-Hero” over the same period the prior week.)

Are these numbers better than expected, or no? Those streams totals would seem to put "LMU" near 25 million for the week, which is I thought what people were predicting. Those sales could result in 40k for the week depending how much the web site sales add. Where does that register? Radio is harder to tell since this just gives an aggregate total and not how it did on day 1 and then days 2-3, but maybe 50-55 million for the week since day 1 was presumably the best day with the radio deal?

[kierz7]

Nov 2, 2022 20:29:30 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 2, 2022 20:14:31 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Mariah Carey’s 15th #1, “Thank God I Found You”, was a ballad that nobody genuinely remembers today, not even her fans,

This isn't true at all. I agree it isn't well-remembered generally, but her fans certainly remember it lol. (I think it's a beautiful melody.)

Sony was accused of pulling various shady tactics the week it jumped to #1.

Lol ok. It rose in sales 9% that week to 118,000 total, but more so it had the second largest airplay gain of any song on the Hot 100 that week. "I Knew I Loved You" was falling in sales and airplay at that point, and the week prior to "TGIFY" moving to #1, Billboard even noted the big sales drop for "IKILY" boded well for "TGIFY." The next week "IKILY" took the #1 position back because it gained in radio impressions again; it actually hit its highest total impressions to that point that week (109 million), even though it had been declining for a few weeks prior. "TGIFY" actually moved to #1 on the R&B chart that week, though.

What I’m saying is that Mariah Carey was an artist whose number ones were ‘notable’ and ‘popular’ during their chart runs during and ascent to number one.

However, that all started to changed during the “Honey-My All-Heartbreaker-Thank God I Found You-Loverboy” period, with only “Heartbreaker” being seen as a ‘genuine’ number one hit.

I was on the forums then and everyone and their mother was accusing Sony/Tommy Mattola of payola and implementing shady tactics to get Carey to #1.

- Then there was the mass discount saga with “My All” being sold for 39c in some a record stores and radio not truly responding well to her singles at all, especially Pop radio.

- Then there was the drama with some record stores giving you a free physical copy of “Thank God I Found You” if you purchased one CD and it counting as two sales.

- Then of course there’s the infamous “Loverboy” vs. “Bootylicous”.

A lot of it was exaggerated but they were fun times.💀😭

[jenglisbe]

Nov 2, 2022 20:39:57 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

I was on the forums then and everyone and their mother was accusing Sony/Tommy Mattola of payola

and radio not truly responding well to her singles at all, especially Pop radio.

So, her songs had payola yet weren't getting played? Make it make sense.

Anyway, a lot of #1s in the late 1990s and early 2000s benefitted from being available commercially (including Mariah), that's for sure.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 2, 2022 20:26:01 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Nov 2, 2022 20:18:23 GMT -5 firefox said:

The 8th day rolling effect for LMU will be interesting.

Why is that?

I would be the biggest drop seen in just over a year. For sake of comparison, Easy on Me debuted with 26.93 radio audience on Mediabase and ended up with 78.25 for the tracking week. It had a -14.27 eighth day audience change. While it debuted with 27.77, I expect LMU to end up a bit above 65 for the tracking week which would amount to around a -12 eighth day audience change for it, assuming a similar drop to Easy on Me.

[kierz7]

Nov 2, 2022 20:44:53 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 2, 2022 20:39:57 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

I was on the forums then and everyone and their mother was accusing Sony/Tommy Mattola of payola

and radio not truly responding well to her singles at all, especially Pop radio.

So, her songs had payola yet weren't getting played? Make it make sense.

Indeed.

Make it make sense to the chart-watchers of 1997, 1998 and 1999 and the Madonna, Janet Jackson and Whitney Houston stans that existed then.

[jenglisbe]

Nov 2, 2022 20:48:21 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Nov 2, 2022 20:44:53 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

So, her songs had payola yet weren't getting played? Make it make sense.

Indeed.

Make it make sense to the chart-watchers of 1997, 1998 and 1999 and the Madonna, Janet Jackson and Whitney Houston stans that existed then.

For the record, "deep discounting" of singles was common practice then, so I don't know why people single any specific artist out for it. In the January 24, 1998 issue, the Hot 100 Spotlight column notes that "How Do I Live," "Together Again," and "Truly Madly Deeply" were all discounted to 49 cents. The next week "TA" moved to #1, and Hot 100 Singles Spotlight again noted it was deep discounted.

[iHype.]

What helped those late 90s Mariah's singles was the discounts in addition to also having countless different versions. It's similar to the Taylor singles and the website buying.

"Thank God" had a CD single, Cassette single, Vinyl single, Vinyl maxi-single, and CD maxi-single in addition to a deep discount. This was in a time where most singles weren't released physically and if they were it was in very limited quantities with very limited versions.

+ it had a remix that sounded like a completely new song sent to radio & given a music video, which would help because the remix wasn't available on the album so it only could be purchased via buying the single even for fans who already owned the album.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Not to mention the ability to suppress or reduce the availability of hits from other artists on the same label.

[jenglisbe]

Nov 2, 2022 21:05:29 GMT -5 iHype. said:

What helped those late 90s Mariah's singles was the discounts in addition to also having countless different versions. It's similar to the Taylor singles and the website buying.

"Thank God" had a CD single, Cassette single, Vinyl single, Vinyl maxi-single, and CD maxi-single in addition to a deep discount. This was in a time where most singles weren't released physically and if they were it was in very limited quantities with very limited versions.

+ it had a remix that sounded like a completely new song sent to radio & given a music video, which would help because the remix wasn't available on the album so it only could be purchased via buying the single even for fans who already owned the album.

All of that is for sure true, but also not uncommon. A lot of singles had various 'versions' in terms of maxi-singles and the like. In addition to its deep discount that I already noted, "How Do I Live" also had a dance remix commissioned that was sent to radio and then released on a separate commercial single. I don't see people mention those things when speaking of its longevity, though.

There were definitely a lot of tactics going on in the 1990s, but it was done by a lot of companies for a lot of artists.

[jenglisbe]

Nov 2, 2022 21:11:39 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Not to mention the ability to suppress or reduce the availability of hits from other artists on the same label.

Mariah was also a "victim" of this, too, considering "Can't Let Go," "I'll Be There," "Fantasy," "One Sweet Day," "Heartbreaker," and "TGIFY" were all limited or deleted commercial singles. She would actually have more weeks at #1 (and maybe an extra #1 in "CLG") if not for this.

[kierz7]

Nov 2, 2022 20:55:36 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Nov 2, 2022 20:48:21 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Indeed.

Make it make sense to the chart-watchers of 1997, 1998 and 1999 and the Madonna, Janet Jackson and Whitney Houston stans that existed then.

For the record, "deep discounting" of singles was common practice then, so I don't know why people single any specific artist out for it. In the January 24, 1998 issue, the Hot 100 Spotlight column notes that "How Do I Live," "Together Again," and "Truly Madly Deeply" were all discounted to 49 cents. The next week "TA" moved to #1, and Hot 100 Singles Spotlight again noted it was deep discounted.

I know singles were ‘deep discounted’ then and that tactic existed, however I think it was just the nature of Mariah Carey being the biggest singles/Hot 100 artist at the time that made her a target.

Again, on the forums, in 1998, I recall Madonna fans being mad that “Frozen” got blocked at #2 on the Hot 100 (by “All My Life”) yet Mariah Carey’s “My All” easily peaked atop the Hot 100 only six weeks later. Billboard had emailing lists at the time and there was HIGH WORD that “My All” was being sold for 39c and even 29c, which most assumed had never been done before, in some record stores albeit Billboard never confirmed that themselves. Personally, I remember purchasing “My All” for $1.00.

Either way, albeit “My All” was #23 on radio that week, it was #1 in sales hence it topping the Hot 100.

In “Frozen’s” case, it was top ten in both metrics but settled for #2 because “All My Life” sold almost 80K units more than Madonna and had relatively greater airplay. Also, Mariah Carey had 12 #1’s (pre-“My All”) and Madonna had 11 #1’s so there was competition amongst which female would have the most should they have tied. 🌚

[jl]

Nov 2, 2022 20:12:01 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

💀

☠️☠️

[mms82]

it really looks like there’s not a single Taylor song that’s going to stick around Top 10? That’s a shame

[thyler]

Nov 2, 2022 21:56:22 GMT -5 mms82 said:

it really looks like there’s not a single Taylor song that’s going to stick around Top 10? That’s a shame

well to be fair, we're still unsure if billboard will switch to mediabase this week. the billboard article mentioning lift me up's first 3 days performance seems to still be using nielsen's numbers (26.3m vs 34.23m). maybe they'd still use nielsen numbers this week for consistency sake and switch to mediabase next week.

[fridayteenage]

Just researched, looks like 1989 is the last female album with 4 multi-week top 10s. Surprised.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

AIWFCIY already starting its yearly seasonal assault: #26 on iTunes, #53 Spotify and #73 at Apple Music. Last year, it reentered in the 27th of November dated Hot 100 chart.

[Darkest Hour]

Nov 2, 2022 22:13:47 GMT -5 thyler said:

well to be fair, we're still unsure if billboard will switch to mediabase this week. the billboard article mentioning lift me up's first 3 days performance seems to still be using nielsen's numbers (26.3m vs 34.23m). maybe they'd still use nielsen numbers this week for consistency sake and switch to mediabase next week.

Actually not sure. It looks like there will be a mix of BDS and Mediabase number for this week's radio number, at least judging from what will happen to country charts.

Starting with the Billboard charts dated Nov.12, all rankings, including Country Airplay, that reflect radio airplay (by audience and/or plays) in the United States and Canada will be sourced by data from Mediabase, as Luminate eliminates the BDS platform.

The airplay charts that will be finalized on Monday, Nov. 7 (and dated Nov. 12) will be the first to use Mediabase data, while the multimetric Hot Country Songs chart dated Nov. 12 will incorporate BDS data for Oct. 28-31 and Mediabase data for Nov. 1-3. Thereafter, Mediabase data will fuel the chart’s airplay feed, and Luminate’s streaming and sales data will continue to power the ranking’s other measurements.

(Just a tidbit, you may remember that in the original announcement article by Billboard, it says the transition would occur in December instead of November)

[Choco]

I love Rih but that song doesn't feel like a #2 hit at all let alone a #1 contender.

Disclaimer: Yes, I know "feels like" is subjective and just my opinion.