2023 Predictors Cup - This week: 4X POINTS FINAL WEEK

[imbuemyblue]

1. C
2. D
3. Doja

[rainie]

1. a
2. d
3. nicki

cant believe i missed last week 😭

[ephelia]

Q1: Nicki Minaj
d) #11 - 20

Q2: Doja Cat
b) #2 - 5

Q3: Next #1
Zach Bryan

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Q1: c
Q2: d
Q3: Doja Cat

[neel]

Q1: A
Q2: D
Q3: Nicki

[fengyu]

Q1: Nicki Minaj
Where will Nicki’s lead single “Last Time I Saw You” debut? (9/16 chart)
b

Q2: Doja Cat
Where will Doja’s new single “Demons” debut? (9/16 chart)
c

Q3: Next #1
Zach

[enwhy]

This week's questions (Deadline Thu, Sep 7)
Promise there’s a score update coming soon!

Q1: Bongos
Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion just announced their new collab single “Bongos”, which is coming this Friday. It appears likely that there will be a music video for this song, which is certain to draw comparisons to their last collab. “WAP”, released during the first summer of the pandemic, lit up social media and is debatably the culturally biggest song of the 2020s so far. WAP racked up the chart achievements, posting 26 million YouTube views in its first day, collecting 93 million streams in its first week, and ultimately running at #1 for 4 total weeks. Will this new single live up to the legacy?

Where will “Bongos” debut on the Hot 100? (9/23 chart)
a) #1
b) #2 - 5
c) #6 - 10
d) #11 - 20
e) Outside the Top 20


Olivia Rodeigo’s sophomore album “GUTS” comes out this Friday. She has a lot to live up with coming off one of the most successful debut albums in history. The next few questions are around how “GUTS” will perform.

Q2: Olivia Top Single Streams
For reference, here are how Olivia’s singles so far have performed:
Driver’s License - 76.1M
Deja Vu - 20.3M
Good 4 U - 43.2M
Vampire - 35.5M
Bad Idea Right? - 19.7M
How many streams will the top-streamed song on GUTS collect next week? (9/23 chart)*
a) 40M+
b) 35 - 40M
c) 30 - 35M
d) 25 - 30M
e) 0 - 25M
*Note: If it ends up being on the line, tie goes to the higher pick (30.0M exactly = C wins)

Q3: Olivia Top 20
How many of the 12 songs on GUTS will land in the Hot 100 Top 20? (9/23 chart)
a) All 12
b) 9 - 11
c) 6 - 8
d) 3 - 5
e) 0 - 2

Q4: Olivia Billboard 200
“GUTS” has already pre-sold a reported 90k pure units (ahead of SOUR’s 72k) a week in advance of its release. For reference, “SOUR” debuted with 295k album-equivalent units. This years biggest debuts include Taylor’s “Speak Now (TV)” (716k), Morgan’s “One Thing…” (501k), and Travis’s “Utopia” (496k).
How many units will GUTS open with on the Billboard 200? (9/23 chart)
a) 717k+ (Biggest album debut this year)
b) 500k - 716k
c) 400k - 500k
d) 300k - 400k
e) Fewer than 300k

SPOILER: Click to show

{Tag List}Please let me know if you'd like to be removed from or added to the tag list!
renfield75
rainie
jasper0102
joshtheking
mms82
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
1^∞
ephelia
kindofbiased
fengyu
85la
enwhy
rnb
khan
jayhawk1117
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Rose "Payola" Nylund
atg
annoymous1
💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓
tekkenguy
neel
Fears in the Fire
†ealsünset
neogale
imbuemyblue
🅳🅸🆂🅲🅾
aznsinger
jhitwild
greggpo

[neel]

Posting this early so I won't forget again or post last minute as usual

Q1: B - I don't think this will wrap up the same amount of attention that "WAP" got in 2020, and a lot of it has to do with how both Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion have commercially declined in success in the years after "WAP". Still I think this will debut within the Top 5.

Q2: C - With both "Vampire" and its follow up so far being commercial downtrends compared to the first 3 singles of "SOUR". I think "GUTS" will have its "Good 4 U" hit.

Q3: A - Obviously

Q4: D - She's slightly going to overperform "SOUR" debut week sales.

[jasper0102]

1. C
2. A
3. C
4. C

[Fears in the Fire]

1. D
2. C
3. C
4. D

[mms82]

1. B
2. C
3. D
4. D

[jhitwild]

Q1. B (idk why my mind didn't register Olivia dropping the same day especially with the other questions lol) 
I feel like it has a chance to debut at #1 to match WAP’s peak (especially if the visuals are anything alike), but it'd be a one and done in this case. obviously idk what it sounds like but I feel it might be more radio friendly in contrast to WAP which can help longevity

Q2. C

Q3. B. 8 at bare minimum imo

Q4. D. Just outdoing SOUR’s first week seems like a reasonable place to aim

[fengyu]

Q1: Bongos

Where will “Bongos” debut on the Hot 100? (9/23 chart)
c) #6 - 10


Q2: Olivia Top Single Streams
e) 0 - 25M

Q3: Olivia Top 20
c) 6 - 8

Q4: Olivia Billboard 200
d) 300k - 400k

[kindofbiased]

1. B
2. C
3. C
4. D

[rnb]

1. a
2. c
3. c
4. d

[1^∞]

1. A, I think this'll definitely debut in the top 5, but a #1 isn't necessarily guaranteed, considering WAP got so many points to the music video and discussion of it, if it's considered worse or too similar to WAP it might not make it, but hopefully it's good enough to go #1
2. D
3. D
4. C

[85la]

1. B. As previously mentioned, both artists have clearly declined in the 3 years since WAP, but the names alone and the history of what that was should at least be good enough for a #2-5 debut.

2. D. I'm lowballing this a bit due to the fact that Vampire and Bad Idea Right have clearly not lived up to the biggest hits from SOUR.

3. C

4. D. I'm expecting probably just a slightly higher debut than SOUR (though unfortunately I wouldn't be surprised if it debuts lower). The higher pre-orders will probably be front-loaded, and the album also only having 12 tracks won't help a whole lot.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Q1: Bongos
Where will “Bongos” debut on the Hot 100? (9/23 chart)
b) #2 - 5


Q2: Olivia Top Single Streams
How many streams will the top-streamed song on GUTS collect next week? (9/23 chart)*
c) 30 - 35M

Q3: Olivia Top 20
How many of the 12 songs on GUTS will land in the Hot 100 Top 20? (9/23 chart)
d) 3 - 5

Q4: Olivia Billboard 200
How many units will GUTS open with on the Billboard 200? (9/23 chart)
d) 300k - 400k

[enwhy]

Tagging anyone who hasn't submitted...submissions for this week are due at Midnight EST sharp! Just under 12 hrs from this post.

SPOILER: Click to show

Please let me know if you'd like to be removed from or added to the tag list!
renfield75
rainie
joshtheking
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
ephelia
khan
jayhawk1117
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
atg
annoymous1
💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓
tekkenguy
†ealsünset
neogale
imbuemyblue
🅳🅸🆂🅲🅾
aznsinger
greggpo

My guesses for the week:
1. D) #11 - 20: Idk I'm just thinking that WAP took advantage of a really unique viral moment and the success of a follow-up is not guaranteed. Cardi has lost most of the hype she had back in 2018-2020 and Megan even more so. I'm hopeful for a big hit, but preparing for a lower debut (Especially with Olivia to compete with).
2. B) 35 - 40M: My gut (haha) feeling is that everyone is lowballing this. Vampire and Bad Idea Right? both sounded fresh and great while still having lots of what people liked about her first project. I think at least 1 or 2 songs off of GUTS will have some sort of viral TikTok success.
3. B) 9 - 11: I wanted to say all 12, but I'm sure she'll have some a couple of deep cuts that lag in streams. Overall though, I'm expecting a huge album bomb.
4. C) 400 - 500k: While I'm predicting a strong performance overall, she will probably suffer a little bit from the shorter length of this album. The top 3 albums I listed had around 20 to 30 songs, which shows the power of releasing everything you have in the streaming era. FWIW, I think GUTS will benefit from the shorter length.

[joshtheking]

1. B
2. C
3. B
4. C

[†ealsünset]

Q1: C
Q2: B
Q3: D
Q4: D

[atg]

1. B
2. C
3. C
4. D

[annoymous1]

1.C
2.C
3.B
4.C

[neogale]

Q1: A
Q2: B
Q3: C
Q4: D

[rainie]

1. b
2. d
3. c
4. d

[ephelia]

Q1: Bongos
e) Outside the Top 20

Q2: Olivia Top Single Streams
a) 40M+

Q3: Olivia Top 20
e) 0 - 2

Q4: Olivia Billboard 200
e) Fewer than 300k

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

1. B
2. B
3. B
4. D

[enwhy]

First, a long-awaited scoreboard update.

Apr 27: What position will "Jaded" peak at?
Back in April, “Jaded” was announced as Miley’s 3rd single off Endless Summer Vacation. A full 4 months later, Jaded is finally falling off the charts, after coming so close (#64) to its original peak of #56. A total of 8 of 19, or 42% correctly guessed exactly #56 (aka that it would not re-peak). Congrats to 85la atg fengyu jasper0102 joshtheking mms82 rainie renfield75 for guessing correctly. Each wins 50 points!

May 04: Will any songs from Ed Sheeran’s “-” chart for 20+ weeks?
After charting for 20 weeks exactly, “Eyes Closed” went recurrent. Radio ended up giving this one the legs to go all 20 weeks. A total of 14 of 21, or 67% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la annoymous1 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 @imhappy259 jasper0102 khan kindofbiased mms82 neel rainie Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 15 points!

May 25: Will “Last Night” or “Anti-Hero” ultimately spend more weeks in the Top 10?
“Last Night” has outlasted “Anti-Hero”, running 30 weeks and counting in the top 10 vs Taylor’s 28. No one can stop Morgan Wallen. A total of 22 of 23, or 96% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la annoymous1 atg Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy fengyu 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 @imhappy259 jasper0102 joshtheking khan kindofbiased mms82 Music Fan neel rainie renfield75 rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund †ealsünset tekkenguy for guessing correctly. Each wins 10 points!

May 25: Will “Fast Car” or “Cupid” ultimately spend more weeks in the Top 10?
Sometimes the question is just bad. This is one of those times. The current score is 16 to 0 weeks. As much as I love “Cupid”, it’s no match for Combs’ “Fast Car” cover on the Hot 100. A total of 22 of 23, or 96% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la annoymous1 atg Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy fengyu 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 @imhappy259 jasper0102 joshtheking khan kindofbiased mms82 Music Fan neel rainie renfield75 rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund †ealsünset tekkenguy for guessing correctly. Each wins 10 points!

Aug 03: a) Where will “Paint The Town Red” debut?
Average guess: D: #11-20, Actual: #15
Doja’s single debuted at #15, which was dead on with your expectations. Of course, as we all now, TikTok has since launched it up to becoming her first solo #1. A total of 8 of 24, or 33% got this one right. Congrats to 85la greggpo khan kindofbiased mms82 neogale rainie Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 24 points!

Aug 03: Will Olivia’s next single* debut at #1?
“Bad Idea Right?” debuted at #10, not at #1. It may earn a new peak this week though! A total of 14 of 20, or 70% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la annoymous1 Fears in the Fire fengyu greggpo imbuemyblue khan kindofbiased neogale rainie renfield75 rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 14 points!

Aug 03: Will SZA’s “Snooze” peak in the Top 10 on the Hot 100?
No one likes to see a song stuck at #11. Fortunately, “Snooze” managed a peak inside the Top 10. A total of 11 of 20, or 55% got this one right. Congrats to 85la annoymous1 enwhy fengyu greggpo jasper0102 joshtheking khan rainie renfield75 rnb for guessing correctly. Each wins 18 points!

Aug 10: How many streams will “bad idea right?” open with?
Average guess: D: 25-30M, Actual: 19.7M
Slight underperformance of expectations. Olivia’s second single was more of a promo track and did not perform as well as any of her past singles. A total of 6 of 20, or 30% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ ephelia Fears in the Fire joshtheking mms82 rainie for guessing correctly. Each wins 33 points!

Aug 10: a) Where will the top-charting V song debut on the Hot 100?
Speaking of underperforming expectations, V’s “Love Me Again” debuted at only #96 while only selling 15k, per @lippredicts. A total of 1 of 20, or 5% got this one right (guessed below Top 40). Congrats to ephelia for guessing correctly. Each wins 200 points!
Aug 10: b) How many digital sales will the top selling V song open with?
A total of 3 of 20, or 15% got this one right (guessed below 50k). Congrats to ephelia greggpo neogale for guessing correctly. Each wins 67 points!



Jun 08: Predict the Top 5 ARTISTS on Billboard’s 2023 Song of the Summer Chart, in order*
The top 5 is in! The final list (with % of predictors who guessed correctly for each): Morgan (95%) - Luke Combs (60%) - Rema & Selena (15%) - Miley (35%) - Lil Durk (80%). Top incorrect guesses were Olivia (100%!) and Taylor (45%). They finished at #12 and #6 & 7 on the chart respectively. Here’s the full list:
240 | †ealsünset
180 | fengyu
140 | ephelia
130 | tekkenguy
130 | neel
90 | joshtheking
90 | jasper0102
90 | Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
90 | 85la
80 | renfield75
80 | rainie
80 | mms82
80 | enwhy
80 | rnb
80 | Rose Wintur
80 | atg
80 | annoymous1
70 | kindofbiased
70 | Music Fan
20 | 1^∞


And that’s all we have for now. Here’s another update on the Pick 3 artist game!

Top Gainers

• Zach Bryan (khan , gikem ) was not a popular pick for this year, but it paid off for those who bet on him. His hugely-successful album debuted at #1, and the album bomb earned him +293 in our game to bring him all the way up to #4 overall with 316 points.
• Olivia Rodrigo (19 selections) on the other hand, was a popular pick. She has gained +61 points as her first 2 singles have continued to chart high. Her pre-album bomb total is now an impressive 161 points, good for #10 overall.
• Karol G (Rose "Payola" Nylund ) looks to be having a breakout year. The success of her album gives her +54, which takes her total to 60 points.

Artist Year-To-Date Leaderboard (75+ pts):
1) 842 (+41) - Morgan Wallen (Selected by rainie, renfield75)
2) 503 (+37) - Taylor Swift (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, big2000, gikem, kindofbiased, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, 1^∞, 85la, enwhy, fengyu, jayhawk1117, renfield75, imhappy259, jasper0102, joshtheking, mms82, rainie)
3) 389 (+47) - Travis Scott (Selected by enwhy, ephelia, imhappy259, rainie)
4) 316 (+293) - Zach Bryan (Selected by khan, gikem)
5) 215 (+33) - Ice Spice (Selected by jasper0102, rnb, jayhawk1117)
6) 208 (+28) - Luke Combs (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, jasper0102, mms82, renfield75, ephelia)
7) 207 (+34) - Peso Pluma (Selected by 1^∞)
8) 183 (+13) - Bad Bunny (Selected by khan, jasper0102)
9) 164 (+21) - Drake (Selected by joshtheking, mms82, 1^∞, Au$tin, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, ephelia, rnb)
10) 161 (+61) - Olivia Rodrigo (Selected by 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, 85la, atg, Au$tin, enwhy, ephelia, fengyu, imhappy259, jayhawk1117, khan, mms82, rainie, renfield75, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, jasper0102, joshtheking, kindofbiased, rnb, big2000)
11) 161 (+5) - Lil Uzi Vert (Selected by 1^∞, joshtheking)
12) 137 (+12) - Latto (Selected by Rose Wintur)
13) 119 (+15) - Grupo Frontera (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan)
14) 107 (+13) - J. Cole (Selected by gikem, atg)
15) 103 (+18) - Nicki Minaj (Selected by 1^∞, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, fengyu, imhappy259, jasper0102, 85la, annoymous1, kindofbiased, mms82, renfield75, Rose Wintur, 🖤𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓, joshtheking, khan)
16) 94 (+5) - Young Thug (Selected by 1^∞)
17) 93 (+9) - The Weeknd (Selected by khan)
18) 87 (+39) - Miley Cyrus (Selected by 1^∞, jasper0102, rnb, big2000, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, fengyu, khan, kindofbiased)
19) 86 (+12) - Future (Selected by annoymous1, joshtheking, khan, rainie, jasper0102, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, rnb)
20) 83 (+10) - Post Malone (Selected by 85la, enwhy, kindofbiased, renfield75, fengyu, imhappy259, joshtheking, rainie, rnb, annoymous1, JukeboxJacob, mms82, Rose Wintur)


Click here to see full selections & scores
And here’s the scoreboard update! Some shuffling around in the Top 4 as rainie moves up to the #1 spot, and ephelia moves into the #3 spot!

Scoreboard

[/b]

[enwhy]

This week's questions (Deadline Thu, Sep 14)
Now that we’re getting to the final months of 2023, I want to raise the stakes a bit. All questions from here on out will be worth 2x points. That means the formula is 20/(% of correct predictions). For instance, a question with responses split 50/50 would now be worth 20/0.5 = 40 points!

Q1: I Remember Everything vs Paint The Town Red
This is between our two newest #1 hits. Zach Bryan & Kacey Musgraves “I Remember Everything” (1 wk) could benefit from the strong chart longevity of country songs, but it will need some radio support. Doja’s “Paint The Town Red” (2 wks) is the biggest song in the country right now, but we’ve seen how quickly TikTok virality can come and go.
Will “I Remember Everything” or “Paint The Town Red” spend more total weeks in the Top 20? (1/7 - 12/30 charts)

Q2: Bad Idea Right? vs Get Him Back!
Olivia’s ‘90s rock-inspired 2nd single “bad idea right?” (1 wk) has held up relatively well despite how out of place it sounds in the modern pop space. Will radio hold onto it for long enough to have another run in the Top 20? Another of her songs “Get Him Back!” is the most radio-ready song on her album, with its anthemic sing-along chorus. It’s predicted to debut just outside the Top 10, and fans are expecting it to get the single treatment next.
Will “bad idea right?” or “get him back!” spend more total weeks in the Top 20? (1/7 - 12/30 charts)

Q3: Barbie World vs Dance The Night
2 songs from the Barbie movie which have seen great success on streaming and radio. Nicki & Ice Spice’s “Barbie World” has spent 6 weeks in the Top 10, versus 5 weeks for Dua’s “Dance The Night.” Time will tell which song outlasts the other.
Will “Barbie World” or “Dance The Night” spend more total weeks in the Top 20? (1/7 - 12/30 charts)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Tag List}Please let me know if you'd like to be removed from or added to the tag list!
neogale
Fears in the Fire
greggpo
imbuemyblue
jhitwild
After Minutes
rainie
renfield75
ephelia
joshtheking
jasper0102
mms82
enwhy
1^∞
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
fengyu
85la
kindofbiased
@imhappy259
rnb
khan
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Rose "Payola" Nylund
jayhawk1117
atg
annoymous1
neel

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Q1: Paint the Town Red
Q2: bad idea right?
Q3: Both are strong at their own right but I gonna give it to Barbie World (as much as Dua Lipa is also a longevity monster)