fengyu
Charting
Joined: August 2020
Posts: 290
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Post by fengyu on Oct 11, 2023 9:16:06 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thu, Oct 12)
Sorry for being late this week. Wanted to get a couple questions out since there’s a new Bad Bunny album out on Friday!
Q1: Bad Bunny vs Drake
B
Q2: Top 10
2
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Oct 11, 2023 15:02:43 GMT -5
Q1: Bad Bunny vs Drake
How will Bad Bunny’s new album compare to Drake’s on the BB200? (10/28 chart)
B - Bad Bunny’s 1st week units will be BETWEEN 50-100% of Drake’s 1st week units
Q2: Top 10
How many spots in the Hot 100 Top 10 will songs from Bad Bunny’s new album occupy? (10/28 chart)
4
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rainie
8x Platinum Member
the future disappears into memory
Joined: February 2016
Posts: 8,785
Pronouns: they / them
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Post by rainie on Oct 11, 2023 17:14:03 GMT -5
1. a
2. 3
edit: misread the choices, was trying to choose the "bad bunny will score less then 50% of drake's album sales" not the "bad bunny will sell more then drake" option !
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ephelia
Charting
Joined: February 2022
Posts: 313
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Post by ephelia on Oct 12, 2023 22:03:53 GMT -5
Q1: Bad Bunny vs Drake
C - Bad Bunny’s 1st week units will be LESS THAN 50% than Drake’s 1st week units
Q2: Top 10
2
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642 
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by enwhy on Oct 17, 2023 12:03:56 GMT -5
First, a long-awaited scoreboard update. Jun 15: How many weeks will “Last Night” ultimately achieve at #1?The second of three times I asked this question. The average guess was 14 weeks, which was still a bit under the final total of 16 weeks. A total of 3 of 21, or 14% got this one exactly right. Congrats to annoymous1 mms82 rainie for guessing correctly. Each wins 70 points!Jun 29: How many weeks will “Vampire” spend at #1 on the Hot 100?Safe to say this one is done? Asked the week before we even heard the song, this gives a sense of how over the top our expectations were for Olivia: the AVERAGE guess was that Vampire would run SIX WEEKS at #1!! Ultimately, it managed 2 weeks, 1 for its debut and 1 on the album release week. A total of 1 of 18, or 6% got this one exactly right. Congrats to fengyu for guessing correctly and winning 180 points!Jul 13: How many weeks will “Last Night” ultimately spend at #1?And for the final time, this was asked again in July with 4 options. The winner was B: 16-18 weeks, which was also by far the most common guess. A total of 12 of 18, or 67% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la atg Baby Yoda Hot100Fan fengyu 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 jasper0102 jhitwild joshtheking kindofbiased renfield75 rnb for guessing correctly. Each wins 15 points!Aug 10: How many units will Drake’s next album open with?
All Predictions: 300K - 400K (x6) - 500K (x9) - 600K (x5)This was from back in August, the first of many supposed release dates for Drake’s album. As you can see, the overall expectation was that Drake would open in the 400-600k range, with him ultimately finishing on the lower end at 402k units. A total of 6 of 21, or 29% got this one right. Congrats to After Minutes annoymous1 Fears in the Fire jasper0102 joshtheking neel for guessing correctly. Each wins 35 points!Aug 24: Where will Miley’s “Used To Be Young” debut?
All Predictions: D: #11-20 (x6) - E: #20+ (x12)Just when you count her out, Miley comes back with a surprise hit! UTBY debuted at #8 and looks likely to spend the rest of the year hanging around in the Top 40. More importantly, no one predicted her to debut in the Top 10!Aug 24: Where will Selena’s “Single Soon” debut?
All Predictions: B: #2-5 - C: #6-10 - D: #11-20 (x7) - E: #20+ (x9)Selena’s debut was more in-line with expectations, as her song opened at #18. While it's gotten some attention on Top 40 radio, it seems likely to fall off the charts in the next several weeks. A total of 7 of 18, or 39% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la greggpo joshtheking neogale rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 26 points!Aug 24: Will a song off Zach Bryan’s new album reach the Top 40 this year?Lmao. Well, he sure made this one easy. His collab with Kacey Musgraves debuted not just in the Top 40, but at #1! Most of you figured he would have some success - A total of 16 of 18, or 89% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la atg Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy Fears in the Fire greggpo jasper0102 joshtheking khan kindofbiased mms82 neogale renfield75 rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 11 points!Aug 31: Where will Nicki’s lead single “Last Time I Saw You” debut?
All Predictions: A: #1 (x3) - B: #2-5 (x5) - C: #6-10 (x5) - D: #11-20 (x2)Nicki’s new single really underperformed everyone’s expectations which is interesting. Coming in at #23, her fanbase apparently decided not to go all out with sales like usual for this one. The Barbz work in mysterious ways. Another one where no one guessed correctly!Aug 31: Where will Doja’s new single “Demons” debut?
All Predictions: B: #2-5 - C: #6-10 - D: #11-20 (x9) - E: #20+ (x4)Such a weird era for Doja. “Demons” debuted at #46, making PTTR look like even more of an outlier for her. Most of us thought she would wind up debuting in the top 20, so this was a mild underperformance. A total of 4 of 15, or 27% got this one right. Congrats to jasper0102 joshtheking mms82 renfield75 for guessing correctly. Each wins 38 points!Aug 31: Which artist will have the #1 song on the September 16th chart?
All Predictions: Doja (x9) - Luke Combs - Nicki (x3) - Taylor - Zach BryanPTTR ended up running away with what initially looked like a close race this week, as the streams and radio continued to rise. A total of 9 of 15, or 60% got this one right. Congrats to 85la Baby Yoda Hot100Fan imbuemyblue jasper0102 joshtheking kindofbiased neogale renfield75 Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 17 points!Sep 07: Where will “Bongos” debut on the Hot 100?
All Predictions: A: #1 (x3) - B: #2-5 (x10) - C: #6-10 (x4) - D: #11-20 (x2) - E: #20+“Bongos” was doomed from the start, as no one could avoid comparing it to WAP - One of the biggest hits of the 2020s. Still, they could’ve given it a chorus. The song debuted at #14. A total of 2 of 20, or 10% got this one right. Congrats to enwhy Fears in the Fire for guessing correctly. Each wins 100 points!Sep 07: How many streams will the top-streamed song on GUTS collect next week?
All Predictions: A: 40M+ (x2) - B: 35-40M (x4) - C: 30-35M (x10) - D: 25-30M (x3) - E: 0-25MSometimes I fall into the trap of injecting bias into the questions…that may have been the case here, as the answer ranges I provided definitely may have led some of you to expect a 30-40M stream debut as typical, when that would be a really crazy debut performance in 2023 - pretty much the Drake/Taylor tier of streaming debuts. In reality, there was no clear follow-up single on the album, so people gravitated towards the existing hit, “Vampire”, which only earned 22.8M streams in its opening week - barely more than “deja vu” from the SOUR era! A total of 1 of 20, or 5% got this one right. Congrats to fengyu for guessing correctly and winning 200 points!Sep 07: How many of the 12 songs on GUTS will land in the Hot 100 Top 20?
All Predictions: A: 12 - B: 9-11 (x5) - C: 6-8 (x8) - D: 3-5 (x5) - E: 0-2GUTS wasn’t a commercial flop though, despite the lack of a blockbuster follow-up to “Vampire.” 7 of the 12 songs on the album landed in the Top 20, with the rest close behind This was exactly on par with our collective expectations going into the album. A total of 8 of 20, or 40% got this one right. Congrats to 85la atg Fears in the Fire fengyu jasper0102 neogale rainie rnb for guessing correctly. Each wins 25 points!Sep 07: How many units will GUTS open with on the Billboard 200?
All Predictions: C: 400-500k (x5) - D: 300-400k (x14) - E: 0-300kThis was maybe a little on the low end, but clearly not a big underperformance. GUTS opened with 302k units, just a touch above SOUR. A total of 14 of 20, or 70% got this one right. Congrats to 85la atg Baby Yoda Hot100Fan Fears in the Fire fengyu jhitwild kindofbiased mms82 neel neogale rainie rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund †ealsünset for guessing correctly. Each wins 14 points! (Note: ephelia barely missed out on a big 200-point jackpot by just a few thousand sales!) Ok so we’re not totally up-to-date, but that’s all for now. Here’s another update on the Pick 3 artist game, through the 10/14 chart. Top Gainers - Olivia Rodrigo (19 selections) comes through for the many participants who selected her back in January. She has gained +216 points thanks to the GUTS album bomb, and now stands at #5 overall with 377 points.
- Rod Wave (rnb , 85la , kindofbiased , renfield75 ) was not too common of a pick, and it took until the 4th round for him to be picked at all. Still, his album did pretty well and landed a number of songs up and down the charts. He’s earned +146 points since our last update, shooting himself up to #12 overall with 167 points.
- Zach Bryan (khan , gikem ) keeps on rising, as he cements himself as one of the biggest names in music for 2023! His new EP earns him another +119, putting him at #3 overall on the year with 435 points.
- Doja Cat (14 selections) put out her long-awaited album “Scarlet”. The album only landed a few songs on the chart, but the big point winner for Doja is PTTR, which continues to rack up weeks at #1. Doja gains +107 points, which raises her total to 168 points.
Artist Year-To-Date Leaderboard (75+ pts):1) 888 (+46) - Morgan Wallen (Selected by rainie, renfield75)2) 538 (+35) - Taylor Swift (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, big2000, gikem, kindofbiased, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, 1^∞, 85la, enwhy, fengyu, jayhawk1117, renfield75, imhappy259, jasper0102, joshtheking, mms82, rainie)3) 435 (+119) - Zach Bryan (Selected by khan, gikem)4) 416 (+27) - Travis Scott (Selected by enwhy, ephelia, imhappy259, rainie)5) 377 (+216) - Olivia Rodrigo (Selected by 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, 85la, atg, Au$tin, enwhy, ephelia, fengyu, imhappy259, jayhawk1117, khan, mms82, rainie, renfield75, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, jasper0102, joshtheking, kindofbiased, rnb, big2000)6) 268 (+104) - Drake (Selected by joshtheking, mms82, 1^∞, Au$tin, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, ephelia, rnb)7) 240 (+25) - Ice Spice (Selected by jasper0102, rnb, jayhawk1117)8) 238 (+30) - Luke Combs (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, jasper0102, mms82, renfield75, ephelia)9) 234 (+27) - Peso Pluma (Selected by 1^∞)10) 195 (+12) - Bad Bunny (Selected by khan, jasper0102)11) 168 (+107) - Doja Cat (Selected by 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, enwhy, ephelia, imhappy259, kindofbiased, rnb, 1^∞, 85la, jayhawk1117, joshtheking, renfield75, atg, fengyu, Rose Wintur)12) 167 (+146) - Rod Wave (Selected by rnb, 85la, kindofbiased, renfield75)13) 161 (+0) - Lil Uzi Vert (Selected by 1^∞, joshtheking)14) 146 (+9) - Latto (Selected by Rose Wintur)15) 129 (+26) - Nicki Minaj (Selected by 1^∞, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, fengyu, imhappy259, jasper0102, 85la, annoymous1, kindofbiased, mms82, renfield75, Rose Wintur, 🖤𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓, joshtheking, khan)16) 129 (+10) - Grupo Frontera (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan)17) 129 (+94) - SZA (Selected by Rose Wintur)18) 122 (+15) - J. Cole (Selected by gikem, atg)19) 118 (+44) - 21 Savage (Selected by 85la, joshtheking, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, atg, imhappy259, kindofbiased, rnb)20) 105 (+12) - The Weeknd (Selected by khan)21) 99 (+5) - Young Thug (Selected by 1^∞)22) 97 (+10) - Miley Cyrus (Selected by 1^∞, jasper0102, rnb, big2000, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, fengyu, khan, kindofbiased)23) 94 (+22) - Dua Lipa (Selected by atg, Au$tin, imhappy259, 85la)24) 91 (+5) - Future (Selected by annoymous1, joshtheking, khan, rainie, jasper0102, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, rnb)25) 89 (+6) - Post Malone (Selected by 85la, enwhy, kindofbiased, renfield75, fengyu, imhappy259, joshtheking, rainie, rnb, annoymous1, JukeboxJacob, mms82, Rose Wintur)Click here to see full selections & scoresAnd here’s the scoreboard update! Lots of movement today as renfield75 takes the top spot back and joshtheking rises into the Top 3. fengyu also rises 5 spots into the Top 5! It’s still anyone’s game as we move into the final couple of months (and double points should certainly help!) Scoreboard |
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enwhy
Gold Member
Joined: January 2021
Posts: 642
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by enwhy on Oct 17, 2023 12:05:51 GMT -5
This week's questions (Deadline Thu, Oct 19)Q1: Kali UchisKali Uchis is releasing her new single “TE MATA” this Friday. Since her US breakthrough with “Telepatia” (#25) in 2020, she’s had some limited Hot 100 success - “I Wish You Roses” (#81) and “Moonlight” (#80) both chartered earlier this year. Will her new single see success? Will Kali Uchis’s “TE MATA” debut on the Hot 100? (11/4 chart)Q2: HalloweenLast year, “Thriller” re-entered at #26 on the Hot 100 alongside “Monster Mash” (#47) & “Ghostbusters” (#49). This year, Halloween falls on a Tuesday (vs Monday last year), which should give Halloween songs a bigger window to make an impact. a) How will MJ’s “Thriller” place on the Halloween chart? (11/11 chart)
A - Top 5
B - #6-10
C - #11-20
D - #21-40
E - Outside the Top 40b) How many Halloween songs will re-enter this year? (11/11 chart)
A - 5+ Songs
B - 4 Songs
C - 3 Songs
D - 2 Songs
E - 0-1 SongQ3: Dua LipaDua Lipa’s been teasing something lately by changing around her album art and teasing some hints on social media. No one knows when it's coming, but multiple outlets have confirmed a 2023 release date for her next lead single. She’s always been someone with lower debuts and longer chart runs, but could that change with all of her recent success? Where will Dua Lipa’s next single debut on the Hot 100? (By 12/30 chart)
A - #1
B - #2-5
C - #6-10
D - #11-20
E - Outside the Top 20
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1^∞
Charting
Joined: April 2018
Posts: 297
Pronouns: it/she
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Post by 1^∞ on Oct 17, 2023 15:30:02 GMT -5
Oof hardest fall off by far, I hope I can get back in
1. No
2a. D
2b. C
3. A
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jasper0102
2x Platinum Member
I CAN GET BY THE DAYS JUST FINE BUT THE NIGHTS
Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,846
Pronouns: he/him
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Post by jasper0102 on Oct 17, 2023 17:51:14 GMT -5
1. Yes
2a. C
2b. C
3. D
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Oct 17, 2023 21:39:18 GMT -5
Q1: Kali Uchis
Will Kali Uchis’s “TE MATA” debut on the Hot 100? (11/4 chart)
Yes
Q2: Halloween
a) How will MJ’s “Thriller” place on the Halloween chart? (11/11 chart)
C - #11-20
b) How many Halloween songs will re-enter this year? (11/11 chart)
B - 4 Songs
Q3: Dua Lipa
Where will Dua Lipa’s next single debut on the Hot 100? (By 12/30 chart)
C - #6-10
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khan
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2020
Posts: 1,106
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Post by khan on Oct 17, 2023 23:30:37 GMT -5
1. Yes - I don't know if I can say this isn't hopium, but she's already has three songs with her name on them chart this year. Her stock is rising, and the album bombs will be shoving off a bit by that point.
2a. C - Michael Jackson and charts have been in the news lately what with the Drake record. Maybe that'll give it a lil boost. Mostly I'm just going by the fact that it's been rising every year, though.
2b. C - Probably the same three as last time. Still hoping we get Spooky Scary Skeletons on the Hot 100 someday.
3. C - I am not confident in this whatsoever. None of the options available would surprise me. She has so much star power but also her songs have a history of peaking lower than they feel like they should.
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neogale
Charting
Joined: January 2023
Posts: 193
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Post by neogale on Oct 17, 2023 23:52:00 GMT -5
Q1: Yes, I think it could chart, at least for its debut week
Q2a: C. Maybe the MJ stans could make it chart higher than usual after their outrage at Drake surpassing Michael's amount of #1 hits.
Q2b: B. I can only think of those 3 songs + This Is Halloween to have a chance to chart due to Halloween.
Q3: D. I think she has more hype than ever for a new album a new sound, specially after the success of Dance The Night
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85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,919
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Post by 85la on Oct 18, 2023 13:26:48 GMT -5
Yay, I'm in the top ten! (for the first time this year I believe!)
1. Yes
2a. D
2b. C
3. D
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fengyu
Charting
Joined: August 2020
Posts: 290
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Post by fengyu on Oct 18, 2023 15:12:59 GMT -5
Q1: Kali Uchis
Kali Uchis is releasing her new single “TE MATA” this Friday. Since her US breakthrough with “Telepatia” (#25) in 2020, she’s had some limited Hot 100 success - “I Wish You Roses” (#81) and “Moonlight” (#80) both chartered earlier this year. Will her new single see success?
Will Kali Uchis’s “TE MATA” debut on the Hot 100? (11/4 chart)
No.
Q2: Halloween
Last year, “Thriller” re-entered at #26 on the Hot 100 alongside “Monster Mash” (#47) & “Ghostbusters” (#49). This year, Halloween falls on a Tuesday (vs Monday last year), which should give Halloween songs a bigger window to make an impact.
a) How will MJ’s “Thriller” place on the Halloween chart? (11/11 chart)
D
b) How many Halloween songs will re-enter this year? (11/11 chart)
E
Q3: Dua Lipa
Dua Lipa’s been teasing something lately by changing around her album art and teasing some hints on social media. No one knows when it's coming, but multiple outlets have confirmed a 2023 release date for her next lead single. She’s always been someone with lower debuts and longer chart runs, but could that change with all of her recent success?
Where will Dua Lipa’s next single debut on the Hot 100? (By 12/30 chart)
D
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renfield75
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 1,644
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Post by renfield75 on Oct 19, 2023 0:50:59 GMT -5
1. No, sadly, but I wouldn’t mind being wrong
2a.D
2b.D…won’t this be the week that 1989 TV impacts? Halloween songs will likely struggle compared to recent years
3.D
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