2023 Predictors Cup - This week: 4X POINTS FINAL WEEK

[enwhy]

1. Morgan Wallen - I don't think SZA can get another big single this era off of SOS. The streaming era has really changed things...if your album makes a big splash, then your target audience will be burned out on most of your songs. Hence why the more drawn out eras of late (Doja, Dua) have started with so-so numbers. You need people to discover your songs over time to have several hit singles spread out over months. Anyway, "Kill Bill" is locked in the Top 20 through June IMO, and maybe 3-4 weeks for something else ("Sepcial" with Lizzo, or a 2nd single with strong radio). Morgan Wallen probably also has "Last Night" locked in for a few months, as well as a number of other songs from the week or two after his album drop. Final prediction is Wallen wins 27-20.

2, Ice Spice - Hot take: I don't think Miley's album will do anything. I'm biased because I'm unimpressed by "Flowers", but I really think she caught a huge lucky break going viral here. I don't think there's some huge appetite for more Miley music among the GP, and I think her album will fall as flat as Jack Harlow's did last year. In a month's time, we'll all be wondering why we convinced ourselves that she would smash so hard. (Disclaimer: I love Miley and she is way more talented than Jack Harlow!) Then there's Ice Spice - Boy's a Liar thing is huge, and potentially paradigm-shifting for pop music. I don't think Ice Spice has anything else right now that's likely to touch the top 20 ("In Ha Mood" is still a ways off) but I predict "Flowers" to fall off first. Final prediction is Ice Spice wins 17-14.

3. Chloe - I'm making 2 big bets here. 1 - Cardi doesn't release until later in the year, which is plausible. 2 - Chloe has a huge breakout moment with her album, which is a little more of a stretch. She has the talent, and R&B is still on the rise right now, but she needs some good music and maybe a little help from TikTok or something to get to the next level. Even still, we're probably only talking about a minor hit with some heavy radio assistance. Final prediction is Chloe wins 4-0.

[85la]

Feb 18, 2023 15:30:54 GMT -5 atg said:

1. Sza. I think another single could help with this if Kill Bill dies down but i think it’ll be one of the 5 biggest songs of the year so it might actually stay until then.

2. Miley. I know Ice Spice is on the come up and is really hot right now, but the hype for Miley is there again and really strong.

3. Cardi. The thing about this question is that we don’t know if she will drop anything within this time frame, but she’s more likely to chart in the top 20 if that’s the case compared to Chloe who has never had a hit reach that height before.

Exactly

[85la]

1. Morgan
2. Miley
3. Cardi

[ephelia]

Q1: SZA vs Morgan Wallen
Morgan Wallen

Q2: Miley Cyrus vs Ice Spice
Miley Cyrus

Q3: Chlöe vs Cardi B
Chlöe

[jayhawk1117]

1. Sza vs Morgan - He’ll probably get 10 weeks from the album. Bomb alone. And let just one of the songs linger and it won’t be close

2. Ice vs Miley - Miley easily. Flowers will be on radio forever and it’s streaming is immense. I’m thinking 30 weeks minimum

3. Chloe vs Cardi - Does Chloe even have a top 40? Even when Cardi releases something mediocre like Hot shit, it still made it to the top 20. This is Cardi by multiple miles

[annoymous1]

1. Morgan Wallen
2. Miley Cyrus
3. Cardi B

[mms82]

1. Morgan Wallen
2. Ice Spice
3. Cardi B

[enwhy]

Let’s start this week with a scoreboard update!

Feb 09: a) Will Rihanna release new music by next week?
Rihanna did not release anything new after the superbowl. And while she said in an interview that she hoped to release some new music this year, she seemed to indicate that her next album was a long way off. A total of 21 of 23, or 91% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la annoymous1 atg Au$tin Baby Yoda Hot100Fan born enwhy ephelia 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 @imhappy259 jayhawk1117 joshtheking khan kindofbiased M5AGTS mms82 rainie renfield75 rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 11 points!


Feb 09: Will Ice Spice chart in the top 40 of the Hot 100 this year?
Immediately she did! The week following this question, “Boys A Liar, Pt. 2” hit the top 20. The week after, it rocketed into the Top 5! A total of 23 of 23, or 100% got this one right. Everyone gets 10 points!

Next up, let’s do an update on the "Pick 3" artist selection game:

• Morgan Wallen has increased his total to 55 points so far, with his song “Last Night” going Top 10. The next time I update this, he may double this several times over.
• Rihanna has earned 25 points thanks to the post-Superbowl surge. While “Life Me Up” is ineligible, she earns points for “Umbrella” (Top 40), along with “Diamonds” & “We Found Love” (Top 100).
• SZA has earned 5 points after hopping on a remix of Lizzo’s “Special”. As a reminder, any song off her album which charted the week of 2/18 is ineligible to earn points.
• Lil Baby has earned 5 points with “Forever”.

Here are the artist-by-artist point totals to-date:
55 - Morgan Wallen (Selected by rainie, renfield75)
25 - Rihanna (Selected by ephelia, jayhawk1117)
5 - Zach Bryan (Selected by khan, gikem)
5 - Lil Baby (Selected by khan, mms82)
5 - SZA (Selected by Rose Wintur)


Click here to see full selections & scores
renfield75 & rainie hold the top 2, thanks in large part to points from Morgan Wallen. ephelia & jayhawk1117 round out the Top 4, both earning a good sum of points thanks to Rihanna charting 3 songs.

Scoreboard
1 (=) renfield75 126
2 (=) rainie 116
3 (=) ephelia 96
3 (=) jayhawk1117 96
5 (▼2) mms82 76
6 (▼3) 1^∞ 71
6 (▼3) 85la 71
6 (▼3) atg 71
6 (▼3) enwhy 71
6 (▼3) imhappy259 71
6 (▼3) kindofbiased 71
6 (▼3) rnb 71
6 (▲10) khan 71
14 (▲4) Rose Wintur 66
15 (▼12) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 61
15 (▼12) joshtheking 61

[enwhy]

This week's questions (Deadline Thurs, March 2)
The big story of next week will be Morgan Wallen’s mega-album “One Thing At A Time”. It will include 36 songs and is sure to shake up the charts.

Q1: Yee Haw #1
Morgan Wallen’s career has been very successful to date. In terms of commercial performance, he’s fast tracking to become one of the most successful country acts in the 21st century. But one achievement that has eluded him so far is the #1 hit. With Wallen arguably at his peak popularity right now, can he earn a #1 hit?

Will Morgan Wallen chart a song at #1 next week? (3/18 chart)


Q2: 36 songs
There’s no doubt that we’re in the era of the album bomb. In 2018, Drake’s “Scorpion” shocked the music world with a record 25 song album-bomb. In the past couple of years, album bombs have become more and more common: Kanye’s “Donda” charted 23. Drake’s “Certified Lover Boy” charted 21. Gunna’s “DS4Ever” charted 16 songs. Future’s “I Never Liked You” charted 16. Bad Bunny’s “Un Verano Sin Ti” charted 22. Kendrick Lamar’s “Mr. Morale” charted 18. Beyonce’s “Renaissance” charted 16. Taylor’s “Midnights” charted 20. Finally, SZA’s “SOS” charted 21.

At this point, it seems like the only limit for big artists is how many songs they want to put out. And Morgan Wallen seems determined to release everything he ever records. With a 36 song album due out next week, can he break Drake’s record?

Will Morgan Wallen earn the biggest Hot 100 album-bomb of all time, by charting 26+ songs? (3/18 chart)*
*For this question, any song which is on the album counts, even if it’s already been released


Q3: Superstar Pride
Independent rapper Superstar Pride does not have a Wikipedia page. Which makes writing this question a bit harder, but also says everything that needs to be said. He was completely unknown up until a week ago. However, thanks to some luck, his latest song “Painting Pictures” has gone absolutely viral. It’s now Top 10 on Spotify and Apple Music this week, and reportedly several major labels are in a bidding war to sign him.

While his song has only just debuted at #99, it looks set to gain quite a bit over the next couple weeks. Will he climb into the Top 10? Will he be a One-Hit Wonder or become an A-list rapper? It’s too early to say much, but baseless predictions are half the fun!

a) Will “Painting Pictures” earn a Top 10 Hot 100 peak? (Thru 12/30 chart)
b) Will Superstar Pride chart any other song on the Hot 100 this year? (Thru 12/30 chart)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Tag List}Please let me know if you'd like to be removed from or added to the tag list!
1^∞
85la
annoymous1
atg
Au$tin
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
big2000
born
cowboy13
enwhy
ephelia
fengyu
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
gikem
@imhappy259
jasper0102
jayhawk1117
joshtheking
JukeboxJacob
khan
kindofbiased
M5AGTS
mms82
rainie
renfield75
rnb
Rose "Payola" Nylund

[rnb]

1. yes
2. yes
3a.no
3b. for some reason i feel like they might lol

[1^∞]

1) No
Wishful thinking but I think Flowers/DFY will have too big of a gap for it to be #1
2) No
Also wishful thinking but this I'm a bit more confident
3a) No
16-40 range maybe but doesn't seem like it'll be top 10 just off vibes
3b) Yes
I could see it as a feature yea

Also I'm curious if pick 3 artists is gonna be a monthly thing, I understand if it's not cause it's a lot of work and will probably be too many points but it's fun and exciting

[M5AGTS]

1. Yes
2. Yes
3a Yes
3b Yes

[kindofbiased]

1. Yes
2. Yes
3a. No, I feel like this'll be one of those songs that shoots up the hot 100 really fast but falls just as fast
3b. Yes probably as a feature

[rainie]

1. total tossup since we don't know the specific numbers for flowers or any other songs anymore (right ?) but. i'll say yes
2. yes and i feel more confident abt this one
3. a: nah
b: i'll echo everyone else and say that he'll have at least something scrape the bottom of the hot 100, probs as a feature

[1^∞]

Feb 25, 2023 15:09:36 GMT -5 M5AGTS said:

1. Yes
2. Yes
3a Yes
3b Yes

bro's got a positive mindset 💀💀💀

[atg]

1. Now i’m a bit skeptical of this considering Flowers, boy’s a liar and Die For You are all very strong challengers but i’m going to just say Yes.

2. Yes

3a. No. This is probably unpredictable as to where it could end up peaking, my mind tells me it’ll just land around the 20-30 range and then start to fall off.

3b. Yes. Most likely whatever it is, it’ll just be a one week wonder scraping to just barely make it on the chart.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

1. No
2. Yea
3a. No
B. Yes

[JukeboxJacob]

1. Yes, probably Last Night, before Boy's A Liar starts its reign the week after

2. Yes, all 36 songs 😭

3a. No. Just gave it my first listen. Basic trap rap. And most of its rise is due to his hair (which I don't even think looks that odd anyway). Its 5 minutes of fame will be short lived
3b. Yes. Like everyone else is saying, he'll get features

[jasper0102]

1. Yes, still think the streaming boost is gonna be enough for him to pull it off.
2. Yes, and i'm more sure about this than him getting a #1.
3. No, this will be close though.
4. Yes.

[enwhy]

Feb 25, 2023 14:38:33 GMT -5 1^∞ said:

Also I'm curious if pick 3 artists is gonna be a monthly thing, I understand if it's not cause it's a lot of work and will probably be too many points but it's fun and exciting

For sure we'll do more with it! I wanted to do a whole separate thread for it this year, but decided to try a scaled down version to start. I think it's turning out really well so far.

One idea I'm thinking of for the next round is a theme for which artists can be selected. Maybe only artists who haven't charted for 1+ year, or artists who are from outside the US. We'll see!

[85la]

1. No. It's definitely possible if streams and/or sales are high enough, but I'm going with no because as it is now leading up to release week, none of the metrics are matching up for any one song. Thought You Should Know is #1 on Country Airplay, but its streams and sales are much lower, and Last Night is highest in streams and sales but is just starting to pick up airplay.

2. Yes. For comparison, Dangerous: The Double Album charted 19 songs upon its release week, so this should be pretty easy.

3a. No. Not impressed with the song at all and see nothing special about it, but aside from that, it also seems to be stalling somewhat on Spotify and Apple the last couple days, but like you say it's hard to predict because he's still largely unknown and we're in the very early stages of this song's trajectory.

3b. Yes. Despite my above answer, he still seems like a viable up-and-comer who will have some chart presence (maybe he'll hit the top 10 with another song?).

[khan]

1. Yes - I don't see this as so certain of a conclusion as everyone else seems to think. Last Night doesn't have radio behind it yet because of country radio's strict rules, and the sales boost won't be so big when it's already been out for weeks. Buuuut it's already so close, I don't think the boost needs to be that big. Hell, there's a second possibility that another song from the album debuts at #1.

2. Yes - Easy moneyyyyy. Even if he doesn't chart everything from the album, he still handily takes Drake's record.

3a. No - I don't see radio picking this up and giving it that extra boost from its streaming peak that it needs. Also it's just too early to predict things like that when Painting Pictures's virality is a week old.
3b. No - Also it's just too early to predict things like that when Painting Pictures's virality is a week old.

[annoymous1]

1. No
2. Yes
3a. No
3b. Yes

[fengyu]

1. No
2. Yes
3a. No
3b. No

[mms82]

1. Yes
2. Yes
3a. No
3b. Yes

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Completely forgot to submit last week ...

#1 Yes (I hope I'm wrong and somehow Kill Bill prevents Last Night from being #1)
#2 Yes
#3 a) No
b) No

[Music Fan]

1. Yes
2. Yes
3a. No
3b. Yes

[joshtheking]

Feb 28, 2023 15:31:11 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Completely forgot to submit last week ...

Same whoops, rip my streak
1. Yes sadly
2. Yes sadly
3a. No
3b. Yes

[renfield75]

1.Really conflicted on this one but I'll say yes..."Last Night" is not far off from the songs around it on streaming (which are mostly decreasing anyway) and the album release could give it the boost it needs
2.Yes
3a.No
3b.Yes

[mms82]

Feb 26, 2023 11:44:30 GMT -5 enwhy said:

Feb 25, 2023 14:38:33 GMT -5 1^∞ said:

One idea I'm thinking of for the next round is a theme for which artists can be selected. Maybe only artists who haven't charted for 1+ year, or artists who are from outside the US. We'll see!

love these ideas!