Billboard Hot 100: 02/11/2023

[Gary]

Morgan Wallen prior opening for Dangerous was 265,000 units and 74,000 sales

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 01 » / « 31 »

1(=) David Guetta & Bebe Rexha - I'm Good (Blue) 92.74(+0.25)
2(=) Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 90.68(-1.25) -
3(=) The Weeknd - Die For You 89.75(+0.89)
4(=) Sam Smith & Kim Petras - Unholy 83.91(-0.05)
5(=) Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin' 79.25(+1.92)
6(+1) Beyoncé - CUFF IT 62.17(+0.07)
7(-1) Harry Styles - As It Was 62.13(-0.23)
8(=) Meghan Trainor - Made You Look 57.17(+0.19) +
9(+1) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 51.39(+2.17)
10(-1) Chris Brown - Under the Influence 50.85(+0.66)

11(+1) SZA - Kill Bill 47.87(+1.66)

48(+7) Coi Leray - Players 25.11(+1.16)

72(+6) RAYE & 070 Shake - Escapism. 17.37(+0.81)

77(+3) Lady Gaga - Bloody Mary 16.42(+0.73)

[ddlz]

Jan 31, 2023 10:36:51 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

I think he manages a 400k+ debut week with the album. 

He'll do those numbers if the album is completely unlistenable. Otherwise, he's doing around 700k.

[iHype.]

After the likes of Post Malone, Lil Baby, Kendrick Lamar, Billie Eilish, etc newest albums underperformed to some extent coming off monstrous albums that smashed on streaming I’m not automatically expecting this Morgan album to break records or be a smash “just because his last album was huge”.

Perhaps he has reached his ceiling already, and this one will perform similarly. He has yet to get a mainstream crossover hit either so it’s not like he’s going into this reaching an entirely new audience.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Country music fans are more loyal to established artists, particular ones who represent defiance in some way. I’d even say his lack of a major crossover hit adds to the appeal. I don’t see a new Morgan Wallen album not meeting reasonable expectations with ease.

[iHype.]

Jan 31, 2023 11:37:02 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Country music fans are more loyal to established artists, particular ones who represent defiance in some way. I’d even say his lack of a major crossover hit adds to the appeal. I don’t see a new Morgan Wallen album not meeting reasonable expectations with ease.

Keyword being “reasonable expectations”.

I’ve been seeing people expecting 1 million first week or another album that spends years straight in the top 10 lmao.

Likely the album will be decently successful, but as said, I’m not having the expectation it should break every record in sight because he had another album that did it.

It’s similar to Adele, you have unprecedented success once and it becomes a curse almost as people hold you to that expectation as if it should be generally met each time lol.

[mms82]

But also for the flip, coming off of Red Taylor's Version people had similar way too high expectations for Midnights, but 1.5 million first week wasn't even remotely in the conversation as a possibility. For every Adele underperforming after amazing success, you have a Taylor overperforming.

Who knows, the songs on the album have been amazing and incredibly well received so far — if this has vinyl first week it could be easily 500k+, maybe even 750k+. Morgan Wallen is country music right now, for better and worse

[Gary]

The prior Morgan Wallen album did not break any records other than longevity - I would not expect Taylor  Swift type numbers opening week


It started at 265K units then after 3 months drifted down to thee 40-50K range where it has been ever since.  

[iHype.]

Jan 31, 2023 12:10:45 GMT -5 mms82 said:

But also for the flip, coming off of Red Taylor's Version people had similar way too high expectations for Midnights, but 1.5 million first week wasn't even remotely in the conversation as a possibility. For every Adele underperforming after amazing success, you have a Taylor overperforming.

Who knows, the songs on the album have been amazing and incredibly well received so far — if this has vinyl first week it could be easily 500k+, maybe even 750k+. Morgan Wallen is country music right now, for better and worse

I don’t even think Dangerous has moved 50k Vinyls total after 2 years, so what are you basing it on that he will sell massive amounts if they’re available? Dangerous charted a total of 4 weeks on the Vinyl chart and has had Vinyls since release.

Streaming has been like 95% of his total units. He’s not a physical seller like Taylor, Adele, Harry, etc.

His Country demo has completely moved into streaming and he performs similarly to Drake, Post, Bad Bunny, etc as far as streaming & pure sales ratios.

I can see him clearing 300K or even 400K, but his streaming is not going to be doing Scorpion level numbers out the gate and he’s not going to be selling massive loads of physical product first week. He never pulled insane weekly figures/peaks, instead he has many casual listeners and he has pulled stable numbers for very long periods.

None of his pre-release songs have just debuted with gigantic numbers in streaming immediately out the gate and debuted #1 on Hot 100. They all pull nice enough streams to debut top 10/20 and keep steady, just as Dangerous pre-release songs, which should tell you his album bomb on streaming will be moreso a bunch of songs doing steady rather than each pulling colossal record daily streams like Scorpion/Midnights/CLB.

[Music Fan]

I think Morgan will clear 400,000 but not get close to 500,000 -- so 400,000 to 425,000.

1) It's a 36 song album.
2) His fanbase has only grown since Dangerous was released. For example, in Los Angeles he's playing the same venue as the likes of Taylor and the Weekend (albeit not as many shows). But it's venues not many artists can fill.
3) Country music streaming has also rose since Dangerous was released.
4) He has a lot of fans outside the "country" genre, especially after Wasted on You and Heartless did decent on pop. We've seen his new song releases (even non-singles) do extremely well on Spotify and AM.

[nathanalbright]

Yeah, I think even reasonable expectations are going to be somewhat large numbers and likely also a good deal of longevity. Mans can be releasing singles for years off of this, if his other albums are anything to go by.

[Envoirment]

I'm glad the UK singles chart has a 3-track rule and the album chart streaming formula cuts off at 12 tracks counting towards SPS.

Hopefully Morgan doesn't disrupt the chart too much!

[Gary]

Mrgan Wallen's album is far from the only occurrence of this type. This would be no different than Drake, Taylor Swift or someone else charting 25 songs at a time.

[kcdawg13]

Imagine Morgan bombing 36 tracks into the Top 50. Shit would be wild.

[Groovy]

This might be just a little taste of what we can expect come March. 

[mms82]

One Thing At A Time deserves — it's an amazing song and the 3-pack release robbed it of a likely top 10 debut. Hopefully the album announcement can shoot it Top 10 this week

[Groovy]

Jan 31, 2023 16:35:49 GMT -5 mms82 said:

One Thing At A Time deserves — it's an amazing song and the 3-pack release robbed it of a likely top 10 debut. Hopefully the album announcement can shoot it Top 10 this week

The album not the song

[Fanstar1]

Jan 31, 2023 17:15:56 GMT -5 Fanstar1 said:

Jan 31, 2023 16:01:40 GMT -5 Groovy said:

This might be just a little taste of what we can expect come March. 

thats the album btw not the song

One Thing at a Time the song right now is #11 on Apple Music, which is still up massively from where it previously was (~50) fwiw.

[enwhy]

The top 2 songs on US TikTok were by Miley and Shakira/Bizarrap, for the 2nd consecutive week! "Sure Thing" by Miguel, which was an R&B track released in 2010, has surged to #3 (also posting big gains on Spotify lately). And Baby Tate's 2016 track "Hey, Mickey!" rises up to #4 - too funny that we're now reaching for 7-year old songs to keep the sample trend going!

https://www.instagram.com/p/CoC5dl7Owu1

Global TikTok Numbers - Jan 31, 2023
Highlights

• Shakira's song remains much bigger then flowers globally
• SZA can't stop getting hits - her SNL parody song "Big Boy" is #7 globally
• "Bloody Mary" continues to do strong numbers months after going viral, sitting at #14 right now

[Future Captain]

On Morgan, he'll probably do 450k-ish. But like, since that would be spread over 36 songs, it'll probably "only" have 2/3 songs in the top 20. Think Taylor's Red TV rather than Midnights or the Drake releases.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 01/30/23

1(=) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 2,555,278 (+122,108) 
2(=) SZA - Kill Bill 2,177,352 (+196,626)
3(=) Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, 21 Savage - Creepin' 1,154,713 (+123,849)
4(+1) Metro Boomin, Future, Chris Brown - Superhero (Heroes & Villains) 1,009,918 (+113,773) (+13%)
5(-1) Drake, 21 Savage - Rich Flex 960,757 (+36,903)
6(=) Lil Uzi Vert - Just Wanna Rock 943,676 (+47,895)
7(+4) The Weeknd - Die For You 889,339 (+119,059) (+16%)
8(+2) Miguel - Sure Thing 873,380 (+99,162) (+13%)
9(-1) JVKE - golden hour 848,915 (+63,378)
10(-3) Bizarrap, Shakira - Shakira: Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53 841,774 (+20,109)

Others:
11(-2) Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 819,912 (+45,354)
12(=) The Kid LAROI - Love Again 809,568 (+51,297)
13(=) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 802,321 (+49,349)
15(+1) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 729,027 (+85,786)
16(+2) SZA - Low 720,442 (+98,278) (+16%)
17(+2) d4vd - Here With Me 706,097 (+84,102)
18(+6) Zach Bryan, Maggie Rogers - Dawns 695,438 (+134,259) (+24%)
19(-2) Harry Styles - As It Was 692,793 (+54,549)
20(-5) Sam Smith, Kim Petras - Unholy 687,156 (+20,192)
21(=) SZA - Snooze 679,879 (+94,034) (+16%)
22(+1) J. Cole - No Role Modelz 643,893 (+82,015)
23(-1) RAYE, 070 Shake - Escapism. 628,495 (+57,897)
24(-4) Fuerza Regida, Grupo Frontera - Bebe Dame 624,037 (+32,787)
25(+2) Tory Lanez - The Color Violet 618,967 (+104,168) (+20%)
26(+2) SZA - Nobody Gets Me 587,273 (+80,236) (+16%)
27(+3) Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and A Hard Place 571,615 (+81,079) (+16%)
28(+3) NewJeans - OMG 569,674 (+88,232) (+18%)
29(+5) Baby Tate - Hey, Mickey! 567,276 (+89,921) (+19%)
30(-4) Taylor Swift - Lavender Haze 560,518 (+34,999)
31(-6) David Guetta, Bebe Rexha - I'm Good (Blue) 552,678 (+13,180)
32(+3) Kali Uchis - I Wish you Roses 549,361 (+83,253) (+18%)
33(-4) The Neighbourhood - Sweater Weather 547,117 (+47,827)
34(+4) NewJeans - Ditto 542,491 (+87,894) (+19%)
35(+4) Hotel Ugly - Shut up My Moms Calling 537,809 (+87,373)
36(=) SZA - Shirt 537,347 (+71,275)
38(+3) Mac DeMarco - Heart to Heart 515,592 (+91,610) (+22%)
39(+1) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 501,121 (+63,338)
42(+5) Sam Smith, Calvin Harris, Jessie Reyez - I'm Not Here to Make Friends 467,986 (+61,171)
43(+2) ThxSoMch - SPIT IN MY FACE! 464,001 (+51,284)
44(+2) Sabrina Carpenter - Nonsense 463,146 (+50,907)
45(+6) Arctic Monkeys - 505 461,661 (+62,608)
46(+6) SZA - Blind 451,571 (+56,657)
47(-5) Rema, Selena Gomez - Calm Down 448,499 (+32,323)
50(+14) The Weeknd, Lana Del Rey - Stargirl Interlude 437,164 (+75,851) (+21%)
51(+9) Beach House - Space Song 434,122 (+57,558)
52(+1) Stephen Sanchez, Em Beihold - Until I Found You [Duet] 432,663 (+45,367)
53(-3) Carin Leon, Grupo Frontera - Que Vuelvas 426,769 (+21,787)
55(+14) Omar Apollo - Evergreen 423,903-349,866 (+74,037) (+21%)
56(+3) Yeat - Out thë way 417,114 (+40,105)
60(+3) Lil Baby - Freestyle 410,146 (+44,556)
61(+5) Metro Boomin, Future, Don Toliver - Too Many Nights 407,228 (+55,076)
63(+7) Arctic Monkeys - I Wanna Be Yours 405,468 (+55,743)
64(-7) Arcángel, Bad Bunny - La Jumpa 404,388 (+22,331)
66(-10) Meghan Trainor - Made You Look 400,071 (+15,506)
67(-12) Beyoncé - CUFF IT 395,285 (+8,336)
73(-8) Manuel Turizo - La Bachata 388,511 (+32,045)
75(+9) Metro Boomin, 21 Savage - Glock in My Lap 387,098 (+67,371)
77(-5) Coi Leray - Players 381,528 (+33,298)
79(+14) Cigarettes After Sex - Apocalypse 378,298 (+69,946)
80(-22) Lil Yachty - the BLACK seminole. 376,449 (-588)
82(=) Metro Boomin, Travis Scott, 21 Savage - Niagara Falls (Foot or 2) 369,329 (+46,592)
85(-5) TOMORROW X TOMORROW - Sugar Rush Ride 368,089 (+44,490)
86(-7) Trippie Redd, Juice WRLD - KNIGHT CRAWLER 367,467 (+43,858)
87(-9) Oscar Maydon, Junior H - Fin de Semana 365,503 (+41,296)
89(+12) The Weeknd, Gesaffelstein - I Was Never There 351,048 (+51,542)
91(-4) Natanael Cano, Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros - AMG 350,587 (+35,688)
92(-9) Taylor Swift - Midnight Rain 350,002 (+29,650)
93(+15) Billie Eilish - TV 348,553 (+60,063) (+21%)
97(+14) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 341,490 (+58,296) (+21%)
98(+61) Lizzy McAlpine - ceilings 334,758 (+80,544) (+32%)
99(-10) Chris Brown - Under the Influence 333,050 (+22,046)
100(-5) PinkPantheress - Boy's a liar 330,425 (+24,438)

101(+48) Daniel Caesar - Do You Love Me 329,935 (+69,271) (+27%)
102(+10) Morgan Wallen - One Thing At A Time 329,886 (+49,038)
103(+3) Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know 328,408 (+34,963)
107(+15) Peso Pluma, Natanael Cano - PRC 322,414 (+49,161)
108(-12) Ñengo Flow, Bad Bunny - Gato de Noche 321,674 (+16,672)
112(-7) Tiësto, Tate McRae - 10:35 318,845 (+24,746)
114(-20) Grupo Frontera - No Se Va 314,844 (+6,812)
116(+27) Luke Combs - Growin' Up and Gettin' Old 314,414 (+51,147)
120(-2) Tom Odell - Another Love 310,365 (+36,177)
121(+24) Beach Weather - Sex, Drugs, Etc. 310,298 (+47,396)
122(+8) Luke Combs - Going, Going, Gone 308,544 (+39,995)
128(+16) Mac DeMarco - Chamber of Reflection 304,842 (+41,822)
130(+40) Brent Faiyaz - Clouded 303,146 (+55,323)
131(+37) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 302,937 (+54,010)
132(+33) PARTYNEXTDOOR - Break from Toronto 302,857 (+52,557)
133(+6) Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You 302,379 (+37,619)
138(=) Zach Bryan - Heading South 297,669 (+32,332)
144(+30) Joji - Die For You 294,354 (+47,331)
145(+33) Future - Solo 294,331 (+48,493)
148(+16) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 293,692 (+41,131)
149(+18) Baby Keem - HONEST 292,987 (+42,837)
150(+41) Miguel - Girl With The Tattoo Enter.lewd 291,504 (+51,233)
155(-32) Freddie Dredd - Limbo 288,020 (+15,077)
156(+32) Mac DeMarco - For the first time 287,134 (+45,912)
167(+13) Yandel, Feid - Yandel 150 277,487 (+32,080)
170(+9) Lil Yachty - drive ME crazy! 276,524 (+30,706)
172(re-entry) Childish Gambino - Les 273,989
173(-20) Ice Spice - In Ha Mood 273,863 (+15,430)
174(+26) Zach Bryan - Burn, Burn, Burn 273,761 (+38,803)
176(+5) TOMORROW X TOMORROW - Tinnitus (Wanna be a rock) 273,006 (+28,986)
179(re-entry) Cults - Gilded Lily 272,511
180(-53) Lil Yachty - the ride- 272,462 (+2,345)
181(+8) TWICE - MOONLIGHT SUNRISE 272,461 (+31,427)
182(re-entry) HARDY, Morgan Wallen - red 272,440
184(re-entry) A Boogie Wit da Hoodie - Secrets 271,944
185(+7) Cordae, Anderson .Paak - Two Tens 271,742 (+32,712)
186(-46) Lil Yachty - pRETTy 271,652 (+6,948)
196(-3) Mr.Kitty - After Dark 267,477 (+28,608) 
200(re-entry) Megan Moroney - Tennessee Orange 265,533

Total Streams for Until I Found You: 735,042 (Would be #15 with combined streams)

Biggest Gains (50K+): Girl With The Tattoo Enter.lewd, Break from Toronto, Stick Season, Clouded, Ghost in the Machine, Growin' Up and Gettin' Old, Don't, Star Shopping, Do You Love Me, ceilings, Lovers Rock, TV, Me and Your Mama, I Was Never There, Glimpse of Us, Apocalypse, Pink + White, ALL MINE, Glock in My Lap, Everlong, Wet Dreamz, Money Trees, I Wanna Be Yours, Too Many Nights, family ties, Good Days, Evergreen, Space Song, Stargirl Interlude, Blind, 505, Nonsense, SPIT IN MY FACE!, I'm Not Here to Make Friends, Dark Red, Heart to Heart, Shirt, Shut up My Moms Calling, Ditto, I Wish you Roses, Hey Mickey!, OMG, Rock and A Hard Place, Nobody Gets Me, The Color Violet, Escapism., No Role Modelz, Snooze, As It Was, Dawns, Here With Me, Low, Something in the Orange, Romantic Homicide, Love Again, golden hour, Sure Thing, Die For You [The Weeknd], Superhero (Heroes & Villains), Creepin', Kill Bill, Flowers

[Darkest Hour]

The streaming performance of new 3 Morgan Wallen songs after a day:

Last Night
#3 Spotify (1,392,613 streams)
#3 Apple Music

Everything I Love
#5 Spotify (1,074,528 streams)
#9 Apple Music

I Wrote The Book
#6 Spotify (1,067,336 streams)
#10 Apple Music

[HamedM1 💔]

Not 3 Morgan Wallen songs in the top 10 on both streaming platforms. ..let me pretend I didn't see that.

[Au$tin]

I don't get it, either. His music is virtually indistinguishable from any of the other faceless white man making country music about alcohol and back roads and trucks and all the other stereotypical country music hee-haw. Even before the racists gathered around to support him, he was still pulling in way better numbers than most of his peers and I just don't get it. How is he on the level of Luke Combs or Chris Stapleton while putting out music on the level of Chris Hart or Travis Jones?

It's like if Mimi Webb started pulling Taylor Swift numbers out of the blue.

[wavey.]

OT: him saying that slur lowkey didn't affect shit. It boosted it🫠

[atg]

Yeah… that is probably clear indication that this 36 song album might do insanely well if he can pull off doing that and on both platforms.

[HamedM1 💔]

Feb 1, 2023 11:06:16 GMT -5 wavey. said:

OT: him saying that slur lowkey didn't affect s**t. It boosted it🫠

It legitimately did boost it, it was reported he saw increases in sales and streaming directly following the controversy.

Anyways in better news, even though it likely won't do chart damage here, go stream Ellie Goulding's newest single and music video!

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 02 » / « 01 »

1(=) David Guetta & Bebe Rexha - I'm Good (Blue) 92.58(-0.16)
2(+1) The Weeknd - Die For You 90.30(+0.55)

3(-1) Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 89.58(-1.10)
4(=) Sam Smith & Kim Petras - Unholy 83.91(-0.00)
5(=) Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin' 80.83(+1.58)
6(+1) Harry Styles - As It Was 61.80(-0.33)

7(-1) Beyoncé - CUFF IT 61.72(-0.45)
8(=) Meghan Trainor - Made You Look 57.37(+0.20)
9(=) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 54.00(+2.61)
10(=) Chris Brown - Under the Influence 51.56(+0.71)

11(=) SZA - Kill Bill 49.60(+1.73)

34(+1) Lainey Wilson - Heart Like A Truck 31.37(+0.82)

70(+2) RAYE & 070 Shake - Escapism. 18.21(+0.84)

73(+4) Lady Gaga - Bloody Mary 17.39(+0.96)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Feb 1, 2023 12:11:34 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 02 » / « 01 »

1(=) David Guetta & Bebe Rexha - I'm Good (Blue) 92.58(-0.16)
2(+1) The Weeknd - Die For You 90.30(+0.55)

5 year old song and 6 year old battling out for the top spot

[jfvtc2030]

Feb 1, 2023 10:38:03 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

I don't get it, either. His music is virtually indistinguishable from any of the other faceless white man making country music about alcohol and back roads and trucks and all the other stereotypical country music hee-haw. Even before the racists gathered around to support him, he was still pulling in way better numbers than most of his peers and I just don't get it. How is he on the level of Luke Combs or Chris Stapleton while putting out music on the level of Chris Hart or Travis Jones?

It's like if Mimi Webb started pulling Taylor Swift numbers out of the blue.

Ahhh yes I get your frustration, and it's the same one I have with artists who do problematic things and STILL end up having hit songs. Though, I would be lying if I said I don't enjoy a number of Morgan Wallen songs.

Anyways, I think his indistinguishability makes him easy to think about as a 'standard' to the sound of white men making contemporary country music ... in other words, I find I his songs (on a musical level) to be very accessible.

Also, many of his hits are lyrically about love/breakups/relationships as well (on top of alcohol which we all know he loves to sing about LOL)