Billboard Hot 100: 08/19/2023

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

[jayhawk1117]

One more week y’all 😭😭. This was a hard fought battle but OTR is safe and for that fact alone, I will take this W.

Taylor you know what you gotta do now. The iron is getting pretty warm

[neel]

Aug 9, 2023 7:25:17 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

One more week y’all 😭😭. This was a hard fought battle but OTR is safe and for that fact alone, I will take this W.

Taylor you know what you gotta do now. The iron is getting pretty warm

Funny without the interrupts, “Last Night” would’ve been a 23 week No. 1.

[Darkest Hour]

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

SNOOZE!

[Future Captain]

do we have any idea if Drake is actually releasing this Friday?

[musiclife]

Aug 9, 2023 8:25:16 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

do we have any idea if Drake is actually releasing this Friday?

No, but Olivia Rodrigo is releasing a new song and music video.

[musiclife]

Double Post

[firefox]

Aug 8, 2023 18:35:24 GMT -5 neel said:

Something to add on while we’re in the middle of chart saturation that is the last two years. It’s crazy that it’s this bad.

I think this is the bad effect of Tik Tok virals for some new and upcoming artists. They make viral hits, go up the charts then completely fades.

[velaxti]

I think the reason they can't break new artists now is because people have too much choice. You can watch whatever you want now, before with analogue TV you had a limited number of channels and if you got a pop star on there people would be forced to watch and get to know them.

Same with radio. People would be forced to listen to songs, and it's quite a well-known fact that you often need people to hear a song multiple times before it gets stuck in their head. It's harder to do that now.

Same with media now. People have too much choice. When it was limited then Britney Spears or Michael Jackson could be the top story every day and people would be forced to know them. Now there are plenty of "alternative" media which completely ignore celebrities.

The new Spotify autoplay payola thing is an obvious (and clever) attempt by labels to try and force everybody to hear songs, but it's not enough, it needs to be longer than 1 week for each song for it to work.

The reason TikTok is so good at making hits is because if a song is a trend then people are forced to hear it dozens of times until they start to like the songs and seek them out themselves.

[Az Paynter]

Except the trend seems to be that TikTok doesn't break artists, it creates one-hit wonders. What TikTok hit by a new artist was followed up with another hit?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 08 » / « 09 »

1(=) Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down 102.91(-0.30)
2(=) Luke Combs - Fast Car 97.36(+0.14)
3(=) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 79.71(-1.65)
4(=) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 75.48(+0.65)
5(=) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 74.29(-0.48)
6(=) SZA - Snooze 70.69(-0.24)
7(=) Taylor Swift - Karma 67.53(-0.76)
8(=) Jelly Roll - Need A Favor 59.44(+0.10)
9(=) Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin' 56.41(-0.20)
10(+1) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire 55.88(+1.10)

39(+4) Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice - Barbie World (with Aqua) [From Barbie The Album] 23.20(+1.39)

76(+6) Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red 14.58(+1.42)

-(-) Usher, 21 Savage & Summer Walker - Good Good 8.94(+1.01)

[imbuemyblue]

Taylor passing Morgan any day now, we love to see it. I dunno about climbing any higher than #3 on radio, though, we the fairly limited amount of room she has to grow.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Aside from the overwhelming amount of media right now, feel like we're still forgetting it's still the first half of the decade. The first half of any decade (hit wise) will look differently than second half because carryovers from the previous decade are still hitmakers. Hence why people like Billie Eilish, Dua Lipa, Travis Scott, Harry Styles, he Weeknd, Drake, and Taylor Swift are still mostly the big names - alongside acts from the previous decade who are now achieving their biggest breakthroughs like Doja Cat, BTS, Bad Bunny, and Morgan Wallen. It's hard to critique culture as it's happening and as we're still settling into new movements.

We don't even know if TikTok will be as strong as it is right now in 3-5 years. Will it still be the way people go viral or will it be another OHW maker the same way MTV, ringtones, Vine, and YouTube for a while, were?

[velaxti]

Aug 9, 2023 9:52:49 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Except the trend seems to be that TikTok doesn't break artists, it creates one-hit wonders. What TikTok hit by a new artist was followed up with another hit?

That's true, and not many. I think Doja Cat is the only one, and it took her like 7 TikTok hits to become famous as an artist.

But I think the difference is that with TikTok the focus isn't on the artist. Before with MTV you would see the music video so you'd get to know the artist. Or they'd perform on TV and get interviewed so people would get to know the artist. Or on radio the DJ almost always announces the artist and it's common that they will give info about the artist (e.g. a recent news story). And they often arrange for the artists to get iterviewed on the radio so the listeners can get to know them. I'm fact on the radio they normally say "Next up is Katy Perry" rather than "Next up is I Kissed a Girl".

Spotify is launching a new feature that attempts to mimic radio stations with an AI DJ that picks news stories from the Internet about artists to talk about between songs so that might help a bit in the future. The Spotify AI DJ also has "Editors Choice" songs which is basically label payola so that might help too if it becomes a popular feature with the users.

My point still stands anyway. People need repeated exposure to a song and/or artist for it to break through, and it's hard to do that now when people have so much freedom and choice.

[Ryan]

[Gary]

Morgan Wallen’s ‘Last Night’ Could Make Hot 100 History – What Songs May Stand in His Way?
In this week's The Contenders, we switch over to the Hot 100, and look at Wallen's quest for 19 weeks at No. 1 and all-time Billboard chart glory.

www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/morgan-wallen-last-night-hot-100-history-luke-combs-taylor-swift-1235388460/
By Andrew Unterberger

08/9/2023


The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Aug. 19), Morgan Wallen is four weeks from making Billboard Hot 100 history – but may not get there, if Luke Combs, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo or other rising hitmakers have anything to say about it.


Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen’s first Hot 100 No. 1 – and a rare country No. 1 with no co-lead artists or obvious pop crossover attempt (though it has still become a top five hit at pop and adult radio) – has slowly but surely elbowed its way into the Billboard record books. With its 15th week at No. 1 (on the Hot 100 dated Aug. 12), “Last Night” ties Harry Styles’ “As It Was” (2022) for both the longest-leading No. 1 of the 2020s, and the longest in the Hot 100’s now-65-year history from an unaccompanied artist.

Next in its sights: 16 weeks and a tie for the second-longest run atop the Hot 100, alongside Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” (1995-96) and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” (2017). After that, only one song stands between it and all-time Hot 100 No. 1 supremacy: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which held on top for a record-breaking 19 weeks in 2019.

Unlike “Old Town Road,” which Lil Nas X worked tirelessly to push to No. 1 and keep there – with a succession of music videos, remixes, high-profile live performances and social media memes – Wallen has leaned almost all the way back for “Last Night,” doing remarkably little public promotion outside of the One Night at a Time World Tour that he’s been on since March. Rather, its reign has been more reminiscent of Styles’ 2022 run at No. 1, where the song’s performance simply held across all categories (streams, sales and radio airplay) both strong enough and long enough to essentially serve as the default Hot 100-topper anytime there wasn’t a major new release.

But how long and how strong is it still holding after 15 weeks at No. 1 (and 27 weeks total on the chart)? There are finally real signs of slippage, as the song falls on each of the Streaming Songs (from No. 1 to No. 3), Digital Song Sales (6-7) and Radio Songs (2-4) charts this week. The door is creaking open, but another song will still have to charge through – and as of this week, “Last Night” remains the only hit in the top 10 of all three charts.

Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): The most immediate threat to “Last Night” would have to be the song that’s landed exactly one spot below it on the Hot 100 every week since July 1. Luke Combs‘ “Fast Car” is actually leading “Last Night” on both Digital Song Sales (steady at No. 4 this week) and Radio Songs (climbing 3-2), though it still trails it significantly on Streaming Songs (No. 11, buried under an avalanche of Travis Scott debuts).

The big question for “Fast Car” is if it can gain enough on “Last Night” on radio – the only metric where either song is still growing – to make up for its streaming shortfall. While it’s already had a five-week run at No. 1 on Country Airplay, finally replaced on top this week by Jelly Roll’s “Need a Favor,” it still has room to grow on top 40 radio, with the song inching up 13-12 on the Pop Airplay listing this week; it also hits No. 1 on Adult Pop Airplay, while pushing 8-7 on Adult Contemporary. If it continues to grow steadily there, while staying level on streaming, it may close the gap enough with “Last Night” in the next couple of weeks.

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Swift already came close to unseating Wallen earlier this summer, when her Midnights single “Karma” shot to No. 2 (largely thanks to a boost from a new Ice Spice-featuring remix), but could not quite depose “Last Night.” Now she should have another shot – not with a new song, but an older one: “Cruel Summer,” a former deep cut from her 2019 album Lover, which has ridden a wave of fan fervor and seasonal momentum (as well as official label promotion) to become a hit, and reaches a new peak of No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week.

The story with “Cruel Summer” is similar to that of “Fast Car”: “Last Night” has a sizable edge on streaming (“Summer” ranks just No. 19 on Streaming Songs this week), but is starting to fade on radio while “Summer” surges. And “Summer” is really starting to swelter on the airwaves: It became Swift’s record-setting 12th No. 1 on Pop Airplay last week, and breaks the top five on Radio Songs this week in just its seventh frame on the chart. If its velocity keeps up, it may pass both Combs’ and Wallen’s hits in due time, and could be in the hunt for No. 1 shortly after.

An interesting wrinkle in this three-way race: None of these songs have proper music videos or remixes yet on streaming services. This is essentially par for the course for Wallen (who has not historically leaned on remixes or made a music video since last summer’s “You Proof”), and outside of a recently released live clip, Combs has taken a mostly hands-off approach to promoting his “Fast Car” cover, which he did not originally intend to be a single. Swift has extensive recent history of both official videos and remixes, though – albeit only for Midnights singles, so there’s no precedent for her to pull those levers for an older song. If she does so, though, it could give “Summer” the extra heat it needs to get over the top.

IN THE MIX

Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): Morgan Wallen may have the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100 this week, but otherwise the chart belongs to Travis Scott: All 19 tracks from his July album Utopia debut this week, led by the Drake-featuring “Meltdown” (No. 3) and the Playboi Carti-featuring “FE!N,” while “K-POP,” with Bad Bunny and The Weeknd, is already a rising radio hit. Those tracks will likely lose some ground in streaming next week, but if one of them (or any of the other 17) begins to catch some viral heat, Scott certainly has the streaming juice to become a factor: He’s topped the Hot 100 four times already, including with previous album Astroworld’s breakout single “Sicko Mode.”

Gunna, “fukumean” (YSL/300): While 2023 has been short on breakout hip-hop hits, “fukumean” has been a notable exception since its July release, as part of Gunna’s A Gift & A Curse album. The TikTok-boosted smash has gotten as high as No. 4 on the Hot 100 – it slips to No. 7 this week – but it continues to perform exceptionally on streaming, and is starting to find its footing on radio, surging 28-20 on R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay. If top 40 – which has never been particularly kind to Gunna – decides to give the song (and its radio-unfriendly hook, at least in unedited form) a real chance, he could force his way into the top three before long.

Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” and “Bad Idea Right” (Geffen): Rodrigo’s lead single from her much-anticipated upcoming sophomore album Guts, “Vampire” actually did already debut at No. 1, but slid in subsequent weeks as first-week streams and (especially) sales declined. The song is still hanging around the lower reaches of the top 10, though– with airplay rapidly picking up (13-11 on Radio Songs this week) – and it may soon be joined in the top tier by new single “Bad Idea Right,” which is due this Friday, and very likely to extend her streak of top 10 Hot 100 debuts.

[Az Paynter]

That milk was already sour before it was delivered; 19 weeks just isn't happening. Radio is dropping 'Last Night' fast enough to kill any chance of it topping the chart beyond this week. He's not even guaranteed week 16 when there's still time for *anything* to happen sales-wise for 'Cruel Summer' (the safest bet for an upset). All it takes is one day of a sales boom and he's out. For Taylor it doesn't even have to be excessive when radio keeps dragging them closer and closer together.

[fernando4]

With "Snooze" potentially reaching the top 10 this week, it would make it the 5th out of six singles from SOS to reach the top 10 (all except "Shirt" which peaked at No. 11). It would also be her eighth overall top 10. This era has been good for SZA!!!

*"Kill Bill" - No. 1 (2023)
*"Kiss Me More" - No. 3 (2021)
*"All the Stars" - No. 7 (2018)
*"I Hate U" - No. 7 (2021)
*"What Lovers Do" - No. 9 (2017)
*"Good Days" - No. 9 (2021)
*"Nobody Gets Me" - No. 10 (2022)
*"Snooze" - TBD (2023)

[jdanton2]

Aug 9, 2023 9:52:49 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Except the trend seems to be that TikTok doesn't break artists, it creates one-hit wonders. What TikTok hit by a new artist was followed up with another hit?

Lil Nas X was probably the first artist that had success because of TikTok and Old Town Road was followed by several other hits.

[Az Paynter]

That's one artist though. Who else has been able to leverage a viral hit into a career jump-off point?

[lazer]

Aug 9, 2023 9:42:19 GMT -5 velaxti said:

I think the reason they can't break new artists now is because people have too much choice. You can watch whatever you want now, before with analogue TV you had a limited number of channels and if you got a pop star on there people would be forced to watch and get to know them.

Same with radio. People would be forced to listen to songs, and it's quite a well-known fact that you often need people to hear a song multiple times before it gets stuck in their head. It's harder to do that now.

Same with media now. People have too much choice. When it was limited then Britney Spears or Michael Jackson could be the top story every day and people would be forced to know them. Now there are plenty of "alternative" media which completely ignore celebrities.

The new Spotify autoplay payola thing is an obvious (and clever) attempt by labels to try and force everybody to hear songs, but it's not enough, it needs to be longer than 1 week for each song for it to work.

The reason TikTok is so good at making hits is because if a song is a trend then people are forced to hear it dozens of times until they start to like the songs and seek them out themselves.

Billboard actually released an article about this issue. Labels are struggling to find new major popstars right now.


www.billboard.com/pro/record-labels-adjust-expectations-pop-stars/

[Darkest Hour]

Aug 8, 2023 20:40:16 GMT -5 Darkest Hour said:

The chart date of this thread is when Zach Bryan will drop the album.

countrychord.com/zach-bryan-to-release-new-album-on-august-19-according-to-wesley-schultz-of-the-lumineers/

Not Wesley Schultz giving out fake news💀

It actually will be released on August 25th.

http://instagram.com/p/CvvNLRfvwA7

[SPRΞΞ]

in terms of breaking a new artist, what percentage of total revenue does the label get vs. the artist? I'm assuming it's way worse than 50/50. More like 80/20? So maybe it's not even worth it to have a label anymore. You can get big by yourself and just live off ad revenue.

but going back to the Hot 100, yes all it would take is for CS to do a sales promotion or something and that would be it. Seems like a shoe-in for next week regardless.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[korbel16]

Well. It’s time.

[kimberly]

1989. October 27.

[fengyu]

Aug 10, 2023 1:10:06 GMT -5 kimberly said:

1989. October 27.

she saw the opportunity to release it 9 years later to the date and she did not miss

[dremolus - solarpunk]

[After Minutes]

A billion streams worldwide is certain