Billboard Hot 100: 09/23/2023

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

why is #49 on AM in less than 24h already a flop? There are Zach's 15 and Olivia's 12 tracks ahead of it, so it's not bad. And can we at least wait for Spotify's numbers tomorrow.

[Xander]

Sept 8, 2023 19:42:14 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I think a lot of people were expecting a sequel to WAP, and Bongos just isn't that. It's a sequel in terms of the artists involved but it's just another song, it isn't a cultural reset like WAP was.

Bongos honestly reminds me a lot of Travis Scott's K-Pop, another huge collaboration everyone was expecting more from but came out mediocre.

I think the major problem with bongos is the genre of the song. If they had rapped over a sick trap beat, it would’ve been doing way better. Megan and Cardi’s audience aren’t Latin listeners and this is where Cardi messed up.

[korbel16]

it’s so bad it’s hard to give it a second listen lol

[kcdawg13]

Sept 8, 2023 19:44:26 GMT -5 Xander said:

Sept 8, 2023 19:42:14 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I think a lot of people were expecting a sequel to WAP, and Bongos just isn't that. It's a sequel in terms of the artists involved but it's just another song, it isn't a cultural reset like WAP was.

Bongos honestly reminds me a lot of Travis Scott's K-Pop, another huge collaboration everyone was expecting more from but came out mediocre.

I think the major problem with bongos is the genre of the song. If they had rapped over a sick trap beat, it would’ve been doing way better. Megan and Cardi’s audience aren’t Latin listeners and this is where Cardi messed up.

Yeah Cardi talked about how her label wanted to get a latino singer to feature on the song but she heard Megan on the beat, but I really don't get what she was hearing. I like Megan but this beat needs someone else on it.

[dodgerslakers94]

Sept 8, 2023 19:51:11 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Sept 8, 2023 19:44:26 GMT -5 Xander said:

I think the major problem with bongos is the genre of the song. If they had rapped over a sick trap beat, it would’ve been doing way better. Megan and Cardi’s audience aren’t Latin listeners and this is where Cardi messed up.

Yeah Cardi talked about how her label wanted to get a latino singer to feature on the song but she heard Megan on the beat, but I really don't get what she was hearing. I like Megan but this beat needs someone else on it.

I can see Black Eyed Peas hopping on the song.

[Choco]

Sept 8, 2023 19:43:28 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

why is #49 on AM in less than 24h already a flop? There are Zach's 15 and Olivia's 12 tracks ahead of it, so it's not bad. And can we at least wait for Spotify's numbers tomorrow.

I mean WAP had a monstrous debut. This is looking like it will do what? 20% of that?

[musiclife]

I think people are getting sick of Cardi.

[jasper0102]

Sept 8, 2023 19:42:14 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Bongos honestly reminds me a lot of Travis Scott's K-Pop, another huge collaboration everyone was expecting more from but came out mediocre.

Tbch that comparison makes too much sense (even if Bongos is definitely better).

[musiclife]

My first impression of Bongos is that it's awful. I was very surprised after I heard it that it was only 2:55.. it felt like it was like 7 minutes long.

[neel]

It looking pretty clear that Cardi B and Megan Thee Staillion’s commercial appeal peaked in 2020-21 and whatever success they going forward would probably be “their last”..

Just crazy considering how Cardi B was the IT girl of female rap in 2017-2019.

[fridayteenage]

Well it's certainly a...choice to have a #1 hit opening single, then wait over 3 years to release the album.

[Xander]

I wonder what her contractual obligations are with Atlantic, because I think it’s really weird how their execs haven’t forced her or even leaked her album atp.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Sept 8, 2023 20:35:08 GMT -5 Choco said:

Sept 8, 2023 19:43:28 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

why is #49 on AM in less than 24h already a flop? There are Zach's 15 and Olivia's 12 tracks ahead of it, so it's not bad. And can we at least wait for Spotify's numbers tomorrow.

I mean WAP had a monstrous debut. This is looking like it will do what? 20% of that?

yeah, but it doesn't have to be a big hit like WAP, not even close to it, since we all know how huge that song/video/moment was for them. I'm just allergic to statements that something is a flop or over after 10h, 2 days or one week...give some time and room to grow, don't jump to conclusions right away. I mean look what Doja did with her 'flop' single.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Apple Music:

2.all-american bitch
3.vampire
4.bad idea right
8.making the bed
9.get him back
10.lacy
11.ballad of a homeschooled girl
12.logical
14.the grudge
19.love is embarrassing
21.pretty isn't pretty
24.teenage dream

GUTS reached #1 on the album chart.

not 100% sure, but I think SOUR had 6 songs in the top 10 (without drivers license in the top 10, g4u was #1) and the lowest-charting song at #17 (hope ur ok).
and just for comparison, Spotify numbers:

1.good 4 u 4,97M
2.brutal 2,84M
3.deja vu 2,79M
4.traitor 2,70M
5.enough for you 2,36M
6.1 step forward, 3 steps back 2,29M
7.happier 2,27M
8.drivers license 2,11M
9.jealousy, jealous 1,99M
11.favorite crime 1,88M
12.hope ur ok 1,8M

[lazer]

Yeah, it seems that Olivia gets the W for this week.

[bonicap]

Sept 8, 2023 22:07:22 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Apple Music:

2.all-american bitch
3.vampire
4.bad idea right
8.making the bed
9.get him back
10.lacy
11.ballad of a homeschooled girl
12.logical
14.the grudge
19.love is embarrassing
21.pretty isn't pretty
24.teenage dream

GUTS reached #1 on the album chart.

not 100% sure, but I think SOUR had 6 songs in the top 10 (without drivers license in the top 10, g4u was #1) and the lowest-charting song at #17 (hope ur ok).
and just for comparison, Spotify numbers:

1.good 4 u 4,97M
2.brutal 2,84M
3.deja vu 2,79M
4.traitor 2,70M
5.enough for you 2,36M
6.1 step forward, 3 steps back 2,29M
7.happier 2,27M
8.drivers license 2,11M
9.jealousy, jealous 1,99M
11.favorite crime 1,88M
12.hope ur ok 1,8M

Yeah, very similar performance for Guts and Sour so far. Also Sour competed against J Cole's 2nd week and Guts against Zach Bryan's 3rd week. I think Guts will do a bit better than Sour on Spotify considering she is quite strong there. It will be almost impossible to match Sour's longevity, though.

[atg]

Are we still having expectations for these big names in 2023 when we have seen time and time again all of them literally underperform? Even Olivia isn't doing as well as she did with Sour in the first 24 hours but in the 2023 standards of pop music she's actually doing extremely well right now.


Once again being a big name doesn't guarantee automatic chart success anymore. For Cardi and Megan they fall straight into this category. Unless you're a giant like Drake or Taylor, its going to be hard these days to get a big name hit automatically unless you have some huge hype or promotion behind the track right out the gate. Also if the song’s quality is good enough.

[larrydmusic]

Sept 8, 2023 22:35:27 GMT -5 atg said:

Are we still having expectations for these big names in 2023 when we have seen time and time again all of them literally underperform? Even Olivia isn't doing as well as she did with Sour in the first 24 hours

On Apple Music Guts is doing as well as Sour and the Spotify numbers aren't out yet. 

Do you have a crystal ball?!

[thegreatdivine]

Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ Doja is a different case. The only Doja Cat songs that end up becoming hits are the ones that end up gaining traction on TikTok.

Attention didn't take off on TikTok. Without the TikTok virality momentum, it never reached the top 30 of US Apple Music and promptly fell off that particular chart entirely. Same thing is happening to Demons. It never took off on TikTok, never even reached the top 90 on US Apple Music and its been falling ever since.

PTTR also peaked on streaming in its first week. I remember seeing it steadily behind Search & Rescue on US Apple Music inside the top 30 for almost 4 days till it started going viral on TikTok and that's when it magically started gaining massive streams daily.

With mainstream acts who are as known as Doja Cat/Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion, its quite easy to tell whether or not a song will be a flop after its streaming performance in less than a day because mainstream rap music is usually frontloaded. Even Gunna's fukumean didn't become a hit until it went viral on TikTok and then gained some streams as a result. Take that away and it, along with PTTR are flops as well.

[neel]

Tik Tok probably only thing that is keeping rap songs to have long stability in such a chart year like 2023. Without it, country music probably could've just swept everything this year.

[kimberly]

Sept 8, 2023 23:01:49 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ Doja is a different case. The only Doja Cat songs that end up becoming hits are the ones that end up gaining traction on TikTok.

Attention didn't take off on TikTok. Without the TikTok virality momentum, it never reached the top 30 of US Apple Music and promptly fell off that particular chart entirely. Same thing is happening to Demons. It never took off on TikTok, never even reached the top 90 on US Apple Music and its been falling ever since.

PTTR also peaked on streaming in its first week. I remember seeing it steadily behind Search & Rescue on US Apple Music inside the top 30 for almost 4 days till it started going viral on TikTok and that's when it magically started gaining massive streams daily.

With mainstream acts who are as known as Doja Cat/Cardi B/Megan Thee Stallion, its quite easy to tell whether or not a song will be a flop after its streaming performance in less than a day because mainstream rap music is usually frontloaded. Even Gunna's fukumean didn't become a hit until it went viral on TikTok and then gained some streams as a result. Take that away and it, along with PTTR are flops as well.

right, I think what is yet to be seen is whether people invent a random dance or challenge for BONGOS that makes it go viral. or maybe it becomes a popular TikTok sound for some other reason. it's too early to write it off as a flop entirely in 24 hours, while it's still rising on Apple Music and without any Spotify numbers. it's actually deranged.

[gs]

I mean, how else are people supposed to discover music nowadays aside from TikTok? Radio and YouTube are dying for music listening, TikTok is one of the biggest promotional tools for music now. If PTTR was actually a flop, it wouldn't have taken off on TikTok, like Attention didn't. It has hooks on hooks and is catchy af, it was going to succeed once exposed to enough people to make it become a hit... Bongos on the other hand lacks a clear hook and is all over the place, except maybe the "p*ssy tight like a nun" line, lol

[eagle27]

Olivia’s Spotify numbers going to be huge. It will be very hard to do more than Sour without a Good 4 U sized hit but this isn’t the flop some of you thought. All 12 songs in the top 15 probably.

[thegreatdivine]

kimberly agreed. It could 100% go viral on TikTok in a few days and chart steadily long enough to be considered a moderate hit. When I speak of it "flopping/underperforming," though, I'm speaking strictly about its streaming performance (so far), seeing as how Apple Music historically leans a lot more into rap songs than songs from other genres. A high-profile rap song that doesn't manage an impressive first-day streaming performance on US Apple Music likely won't do any real damage on US Spotify. I expect Bongos to get pushed hard on radio so it should be able to manage a top 10 debut on the Hot 100 but outside of that, I don't know.

My main point is moreso about how its first-day streaming performance on Apple Music doesn't indicate an organic interest from the GP and how that's usually a tell sign of how well a rap song will/won't perform long-term.

[korbel16]

olivia will likely debut with similar streaming numbers to harry’s house. she always does good on streaming. hell, she could even match her previous.. unlikely tho, cuz good 4 u was POPPIN at the time

[neel]

Sept 8, 2023 23:46:21 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

olivia will likely debut with similar streaming numbers to harry’s house. she always does good on streaming. hell, she could even match her previous.. unlikely tho, cuz good 4 u was POPPIN at the time

So that means she’s debuting with 5 song inside top 10. Wonder what will be GUTS’ “Good 4 U”

[musiclife]

Sept 8, 2023 23:56:18 GMT -5 neel said:

Sept 8, 2023 23:46:21 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

olivia will likely debut with similar streaming numbers to harry’s house. she always does good on streaming. hell, she could even match her previous.. unlikely tho, cuz good 4 u was POPPIN at the time

So that means she’s debuting with 5 song inside top 10. Wonder what will be GUTS’ “Good 4 U”

Get Him Back! Or love is embarassing 100% for sure. Two of the best pop songs this year.

[bonicap]

Sept 8, 2023 23:46:21 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

olivia will likely debut with similar streaming numbers to harry’s house. she always does good on streaming. hell, she could even match her previous.. unlikely tho, cuz good 4 u was POPPIN at the time

Harry's House debuted with 98M streams and Sour debuted with 63M, this makes no sense.

[bonicap]

Sept 8, 2023 23:34:05 GMT -5 eagle27 said:

Olivia’s Spotify numbers going to be huge. It will be very hard to do more than Sour without a Good 4 U sized hit but this isn’t the flop some of you thought. All 12 songs in the top 15 probably.

If she has all songs in the Top 15 she is definitely beating Sour, because that would mean the lowest one has around 5M streams. I think a 75-80M debut is possible.

[s9983]

I'll never forget when 90% of pulse users were bashing wap and saying the video completely carried it. Just give it time and we'll see how it performs before we start with the think pieces. It's also very possibly underperforming on the first day because of all the attention on Olivia's album.