Billboard Hot 100: 09/23/2023

[HamedM1 💔]

Generally happy to see GUTS is matching SPUR in terns of first day impressions, truly a stellar sophomore effort.

[Enigma.]

Childers' hit album Purgatory is already 6 years old and he hasn't had bigger success since.

[larrydmusic]

Tyler Childers is an incredible artist, his music is pure poetry. Zach Bryan is very average in comparison and it's no surprise to see the charts and general public reward average music instead of real art.

[85la]

Sept 9, 2023 3:39:08 GMT -5 firefox said:

Just heard BONGOS, and it's no joke that it seems like you're listening to a 5 minute song 🤣

I noticed that too, I guess it's the monotony that does that.

Even without the new GUTS tracks, it would only be #10 and with less than a million streams, so this isn't even generating curiosity listens, and the fact that most people aren't liking it (though I don't think it's as bad as people are saying), to my great surprise, the chances of this even becoming a modest success are in question.

Very solid first day numbers for Olivia though! I fear it might be a bit front-loaded, so we'll see how the numbers hold in the next few days, and while it would be cool to see Vampire return to #1 (10 weeks after debuting there!) and Bad Idea Right? re-peaking at #3, I wouldn't be surprised if those predictions don't hold up.

[korbel16]

Sept 9, 2023 0:40:57 GMT -5 bonicap said:

Sept 8, 2023 23:46:21 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

olivia will likely debut with similar streaming numbers to harry’s house. she always does good on streaming. hell, she could even match her previous.. unlikely tho, cuz good 4 u was POPPIN at the time

Harry's House debuted with 98M streams and Sour debuted with 63M, this makes no sense.

first week streams not daily streams. HH had 250M first week, thank you

[sheardbeard]

With “Vampire” predicted to return to #1 this week, would it be close breaking any sort of record for number of weeks between falling from #1 and returning back to #1 during the same chart run? It’ll be 10 weeks in between. (I know “The Twist” and “AIWFCIY” have longer gaps, but they both returned on separate chart runs.)

[kimberly]

Sept 9, 2023 14:08:58 GMT -5 sheardbeard said:

With “Vampire” predicted to return to #1 this week, would it be close breaking any sort of record for number of weeks between falling from #1 and returning back to #1 during the same chart run? It’ll be 10 weeks in between.

I think it will tie a record, yeah. The one I remember is "Wrecking Ball" also returning to #1 after "Royals" 9 week run at the top.

[85la]

Sept 9, 2023 1:09:36 GMT -5 s9983 said:

I'll never forget when 90% of pulse users were bashing wap and saying the video completely carried it. Just give it time and we'll see how it performs before we start with the think pieces. It's also very possibly underperforming on the first day because of all the attention on Olivia's album.

So I got curious and looked back at the thread the week WAP was released, and that wasn't exactly the case. Some immediate reactions were a little tepid, and yes, most seemed to say the video carried it more, but the song itself soon seemed to be a grower for most people, especially after the huge numbers were immediately coming in, which is just not happening for BONGOS, so the prospects for the latter don't bode well. For comparison, WAP reached #1 on US Apple Music on its first day, 2.3 million US Spotify first day (and grew in streams the rest of the week, peaking at 2.7 million by the end of the week), to finish the week with a whopping 93 million streams overall (most of them being from YouTube), as well as #1 in sales with 125,000 and 11.6 million in airplay.

Here's the thread that week in case anyone's curious: pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/197844/billboard-hot-100-08-2020

I also don't think Olivia drawing attention away would be much of a factor. There's been songs that have debuted big before alongside album bombs, and especially because these are different genres and have somewhat different audiences.

[gs]

WAP's first day was like

Spotify 2.2M
Apple 3.5M
YouTube (filtered) 16M

Bongos

Spotify 0.98M
Apple 0.6M
YouTube (filtered) <1.5M

To say it's a shell of what WAP was would be overestimating its impact even

[shadowthehedgehogfan]

Sept 9, 2023 11:54:28 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Sept 9, 2023 11:14:01 GMT -5 Darkest Hour said:

I actually have Lainey Wilson in mind, based on the industry push, social media engagement and solid solo and guest singles performances so far.

I thought Kelsea Ballerini was going to be the next big country megastar when she first arrived on the scene back in 2015-16.

im really upset Kelsea never really got her due. She's so good, but she just doesnt get the push somebody like Lainey has been getting

[Deleted]

I legit just noticed that Doja had released this EP with five versions of Paint The Red. I'm soooo shocked at the lack of dissertations about it.

[After Minutes]

Sept 9, 2023 15:42:16 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

I legit just noticed that Doja had released this EP with five versions of Paint The Red. I'm soooo shocked at the lack of dissertations about it.

on mute it's AOTY

[kimberly]

Sept 9, 2023 15:42:16 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

I legit just noticed that Doja had released this EP with five versions of Paint The Red. I'm soooo shocked at the lack of dissertations about it.

it's pretty standard to release a clean version, nearly every explicit song has one.

slowed and sped-up versions are also very common these days, TikTok effect.

so I guess you can complain about the instrumental version if you want?

[thegreatdivine]

Besides WAP simply being a much better song than Bongos, there are also several other factors that contributed to its success. The song, along with its accompanying music video, got a lot of publicity outside of traditional, "urban" sites and publications. Nationwide news stations were running stories of how controversial the video was and a lot of conservatives had complaints about it. All that "negative publicity" added to its exposure.

Many people forget but as of 2020, Cardi B was still riding the high of the success of her debut album. She released Money/Press in 2019, both of which were hard-hitting rap songs and were, according to her, meant to be singles for an extended version of her debut album that was set to be released later that year. That apparently ended up getting scrapped but I believe Please Me (also released in 2019) would have made the cut of that supposed extended album. That was the first wrong move she made.

WAP, seemed like the start of a new album era for her. She was very much leaning into that energy and so many fans (as well as casual listeners) rushed to show support because they believed that'd be the lead single off her sophomore album. After the song dropped, Cardi disappears and doesn't return until 2021 with Up, another song that sees success but also ends up being another fake pump as it ended up failing to materialize into an album. That was the second wrong move she made.

I believe that marked a shift for most people, who concluded she was an unserious artist and had no plans to release a follow-up album. Meanwhile, she still believed she could keep things going by popping up every year and dropping a hit single and then disappearing again. She tried the same thing again in 2022 with Hot Sh*t (which ended up getting a negative reception and flopping) and every single/feature since then has burned out quicker and quicker, including those which were received well.

I don't want to overreact but she is very much the architect of her own undoing. Even if Bongos was received better, I don't think it'd have performed that much better than it currently is because the GP seems to have mostly moved on from Cardi B. There's a legion of younger, newer female artists to be excited about and to support. It also doesn't help that Cardi B doesn't seem any closer to being ready to release her sophomore album even in 2023. 2024 will make it 6 years since she released her debut album. I think future singles by her will perform similarly and if she's waiting for a smash hit to serve as a prompt to release a follow-up album, I believe we'll never get another Cardi B album.

[shadowthehedgehogfan]

the new song from Helluva boss got an official upload surprisingly. it's gotten 340k in 8 hours which was prett surprising

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Sept 9, 2023 7:21:20 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

This really puts things into perspective.

Flashback to when some people said GUTS was going to be a sophomore slump.

[Darkest Hour]

US Spotify - Saturday
1 (+1) Olivia Rodrigo - bad idea right? (2,164,769 streams)
2 (+2) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire (1,992,632 streams)
3 (=) Olivia Rodrigo - get him back! (1,928,740 streams)
4 (-3) Olivia Rodrigo - all-american bitch (1,914,620 streams)
6 (+3) Olivia Rodrigo - the grudge (1,598,410 streams)
7 (=) Olivia Rodrigo - making the bed (1,571,752 streams)
9 (-1) Olivia Rodrigo - logical (1,537,575 streams)
10 (-5) Olivia Rodrigo - ballad of a homeschooled girl (1,534,696 streams)
11 (-5) Olivia Rodrigo - lacy (1,471,257 streams)
12 (-1) Olivia Rodrigo - love is embarrassing (1,411,403 streams)
14 (-1) Olivia Rodrigo - pretty isn’t pretty (1,243,808 streams)
17 (-3) Olivia Rodrigo - teenage dream (1,136,961 streams)

Total Streams: 19,506,623 (-30.64%)

26 (-6) Cardi B - Bongos (feat. Megan Thee Stallion) (748,209 streams)
148 (-112) Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nuñez, Junior H - BIPOLAR (337,816 streams) *had a glitch where this was unplayable for some period yesterday
NA. Tyler Childers - Rustin' In The Rain
NA. V - Slow Dancing
NA. Chris Stapleton - Think I'm In Love With You

43 (+1) Laufey - From The Start (545,850 streams)
94 (-39) Tyler Childers - In Your Love (401,563 streams)
NA. V - Love Me Again

[xtynaaguilera99]

How much did SOUR make in its second day on US Spotify?
Worldwide, GUTS did 43.7 million streams, while SOUR had 51 million streams. Again, considering the fact that there’s no monster hit à la “good 4 u” to promote the record, these streams are very strong.

[Deleted]

Sept 9, 2023 17:58:54 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Sept 9, 2023 15:42:16 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

I legit just noticed that Doja had released this EP with five versions of Paint The Red. I'm soooo shocked at the lack of dissertations about it.

it's pretty standard to release a clean version, nearly every explicit song has one.

slowed and sped-up versions are also very common these days, TikTok effect.

so I guess you can complain about the instrumental version if you want?

I'm not complaining. Remixes next! 

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

[larrydmusic]

Another monster album for Olivia!
Projected chart position for Guts tracks on the Hot 100:
#1 Vampire
#6 Bad idea right
#10 Get him back
#12 All American bitch
#14 The grudge
#16 Making the bed
#17 Logical
#18 Ballad of a homeschooled girl
#20 Lacy
#23 Love is embarrassing
#25 Pretty isn't pretty
#30 Teenage dream

Sour tracks on the Hot 100 when the album was released
#2 Good 4 u
#3 Deja vu
#9 Traitor
#11 Drivers license
#12 Brutal
#14 Enough for you
#15 Happier
#18 Favorite crime
#19 1 step forward, 3 steps back
#24 Jealousy jealousy
#29 Hope ur ok

[fridayteenage]

US day 2s:
good 4 u 4.5 mil
deja vu 2.5 mil
brutal 2.2 mil
traitor 2.2 mil
enough for you 1.9 mil
drivers license 1.8 mil


bad idea right 2.2 mil
vampire 2.0 mil
get him back 1.9 mil
all american 1.9 mil
grudge 1.6 mil
making the bed 1.6 mil

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 09/09/23

Olivia Rodrigo - GUTS [12/12]
1(+1) bad idea right? 2,164,769 (-682,804) (-24%)
2(+2) vampire 1,992,632 (-520,715) (-21%)
3(=) get him back! 1,928,740 (-706,755) (-27%)
4(-3) all-american bitch 1,914,620 (-1,037,818) (-35%)
6(+3) the grudge 1,598,410 (-598,591) (-27%) *new peak*
7(=) making the bed 1,571,752 (-786,785) (-33%)
9(-1) logical 1,537,575 (-768,798) (-33%)
10(-5) ballad of a homeschooled girl 1,534,696 (-831,488) (-35%)
11(-5) lacy 1,471,257 (-889,258) (-38%)
12(-1) love is embarrassing 1,411,403 (-643,834)
14(-1) pretty isn't pretty 1,243,808 (-593,357)
17(-3) teenage dream 1,136,961 (-558,244)
Total Second Day Streams: 19,506,623 (-31%)

Top 10 Without GUTS
5(+5) Doja Cat - Paint the Town Red 1,893,425 (-203,507)
8(+4) Zach Bryan, Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything 1,551,513 (-308,580)
13(+2) Gunna - fukumean 1,282,163 (-105,211)
15(+1) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 1,240,108 (-48,104)
16(+1) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 1,173,259 (-32,833)
18(+1) Travis Scott - I KNOW ? 916,388 (-106,004)
19(-1) Zach Bryan, The War and Treaty - Hey Driver 896,105 (-164,413)
20(+1) Oliver Anthony Music - Rich Men North of Richmond 872,246 (-100,406)
21(+1) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 825,493 (-81,268)
22(+4) Dua Lipa - Dance the Night 791,744 (-13,388)

Zach Bryan - Zach Bryan [12/16]
32(-7) Tourniquet 668,875 (-147,002)
37(-9) Spotless 639,898 (-127,466)
40(-6) East Side of Sorrow 600,939 (-126,183)
59(-11) Fear and Friday's 472,282 (-113,072)
93(-31) Ticking 403,424 (-97,469)
100(-33) Overtime 391,039 (-96,598)
105(-31) Summertime's Close 382,767 (-96,361)
128(-34) Holy Roller 356,691 (-86,467)
136(-40) Smaller Act 349,463 (-86,467)
160(-44) El Dorado 330,441 (-78,300)
Total Fifteenth Day Streams: 7,043,437 (-24%)

Other:
23(=) Travis Scott, Drake - MELTDOWN 790,354 (-107,392)
24(=) KAROL G, Peso Pluma - QLONA 775,945 (-55,926)
25(+6) Nicki Minaj, Ice Spice - Barbie World 769,490 (+5,462)
26(-6) Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion - Bongos 748,209 (-231,359) (-24%)
27(+3) Luke Combs - Fast Car 721,542 (-43,629)
29(=) Jung Kook, Latto - Seven 689,953 (-75,222)
30(-3) Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? 685,039 (-84,093)
33(+2) SZA - Snooze 663,414 (-53,080)
34(-2) Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - FE!N 663,000 (-100,771)
36(+7) Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros, Junior H - LADY GAGA 645,078 (-3,273)
38(=) Tyler the Creator, Kali Uchis - See You Again 626,791 (-51,125)
39(=) Bailey Zimmerman - Religiously 603,384 (-74,531)
42(-1) Travis Scott, SZA, Future - TELEKINESIS 556,245 (-100,174)
43(+1) Laufey - From the Start 545,850 (-71,001) (-12%)
45(+1) Zach Bryan - Heading South 533,541 (-63,425)
47(-2) Miley Cyrus - Used to Be Young 527,414 (-76,975) (-13%)
48(+3) Myke Towers - LALA 515,265 (-38,817)
52(+4) Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me 489,898 (-29,664)
56(+23) Ice Spice - Deli 473,715 (+268)
58(+8) Fuerza Regida - SABOR FRESA 473,028 (-15,375)
61(-2) Taylor Swift - Style 467,327 (-44,992)
63(-5) NewJeans - Super Shy 461,374 (-51,981)
64(+31) Taylor Swift - Blank Space 461,113 (+19,822)
65(-5) Taylor Swift - august 455,528 (-50,819)
68(-5) David Kushner - Daylight 450,008 (-43,133)
70(+22) Calle 24, Chino Pacas, Fuerza Regida - Que Onda 443,328 (-3,388) *new peak*
73(+28) Peso Pluma, Grupo Frontera - TULUM 434,990 (-2,943)
75(+7) KAROL G - MI EX TENÍA RAZÓN 433,306 (-34,292)
76(=) Selena Gomez - Single Soon 432,692 (-42,488)
77(+8) Lil Durk, J. Cole - All My Life 430,288 (-25,038)
81(-13) Zach Bryan, Maggie Rogers - Dawns 421,517 (-65,163)
83(-18) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 418,907 (-71,984)
84(+18) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 418,517 (-19,238)
85(+25) Fuerza Regida - TQM 417,891 (-10,545)
87(-7) Noah Kahan, Post Malone - Dial Drunk Remix 410,594 (-62,744)
88(+1) Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nuñez - LAGUNAS 410,501 (-39,035)
94(-39) Tyler Childers - In Your Love 401,563 (-119,563) (-23%)
96(-15) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 399,991 (-70,988)
98(+26) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 394,462 (-7,595)
99(-2) Zach Bryakn - Oklahoma Smokeshow 391,691 (-48,588)

101(+5) Taylor Swift - cardigan 389,239 (-45,792)
102(+19) Rema, Selena Gomez - Calm Down 388,513-404,034 (-15,521)
106(-36) Nicki Minaj - Last Time I Saw You 381,651 (-104,057) (-21%)
107(+1) Brent Faiyaz - Clouded 381,289 (-53,274)
110(-1) Charlie XCX - Speed Drive 377,323 (-56,653)
112(+33) Bizarrap, Peso Pluma - Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 55 370,139 (-11,466)
114(-3) Travis Scott - MY EYES 365,792 (-56,755)
115(+7) The Weeknd, Playboi Carti, Madonna - Popular 364,596 (-38,774)
117(+18) That Mexican OT, Paul Wall, DRODi - Johnny Dang 387,717 (+12,330)
119(+64) Sexyy Red - SkeeYee 362,366 (+22,168) *new peak*
122(-9) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 358,940 (-53,944)
125(+3) Zach Bryan - Revival 357,443 (-36,735)
126(-9) Young Nudy, 21 Savage - Peaches & Eggplants 357,375 (-49,029)
127(+7) Tyler Childers - Feathered Indians 356,974 (-31,102)
132(+37) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 352,651 (-1,369)
135(+9) Tyler Childers - All Your'n 349,656 (-32,177)
139(+25) Odetari, 9lives - I LOVE YOU HOE 347,671 (-8,726)
143(+18) HARDY - TRUCK BED 345,061 (-13,849)
145(+1) Steve Lacy - Infrunami 340,013 (-38,457)
148(-112) Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nuñez, Junior H - BIPOLAR 337,816 (-359,444) (-52%)
149(+14) Dave, Central Cee - Sprinter 337,570 (-19,559)
150(-13) Travis Scott, Rob49, 21 Savage - TOPIA TWINS 337,566 (-49,515)
157(+9) Carin Leon - Primera Cita 332,227 (-23,519)
158(+26) Peso Pluma - RUBICON 331,731 (-8,059)
159(-54) Doja Cat - Demons 331,372 (-104,094) (-24%)
166(-8) Feid, Young Miko - Classy 101 326,674 (-32,888)
170(+7) juju<3 - Wasted Summers 319,940 (-26,031)
173(+12) Taylor Swift - Lover 318,587 (-18,968)
174(+14) Peso Pluma - BYE 316,621 (-17,645)
175(-20) Zach Bryan - Burn, Burn, Burn 316,620 (-47,668)
177(+5) Kenya Grace - Strangers 315,176 (-26,219)
180(-2) Peso Pluma, Junior H - LUNA 314,685 (-30,841)
181(-31) Taylor Swift - I Can See You 312,539 (-59,177)
185(-12) Travis Scott, Bad Bunny, The Weeknd - K-POP 311,484 (-38,000)
190(=) KAROL G - AMARGURA 306,965 (-25,672)
197(re-entry) KAROL G - S91 303,722

[shadowthehedgehogfan]

good that Bad idea right is expected to get a better peak. Ten seems way too low

[s9983]

Sept 9, 2023 14:59:14 GMT -5 85la said:

Sept 9, 2023 1:09:36 GMT -5 s9983 said:

I'll never forget when 90% of pulse users were bashing wap and saying the video completely carried it. Just give it time and we'll see how it performs before we start with the think pieces. It's also very possibly underperforming on the first day because of all the attention on Olivia's album.

So I got curious and looked back at the thread the week WAP was released, and that wasn't exactly the case. Some immediate reactions were a little tepid, and yes, most seemed to say the video carried it more, but the song itself soon seemed to be a grower for most people, especially after the huge numbers were immediately coming in, which is just not happening for BONGOS, so the prospects for the latter don't bode well. For comparison, WAP reached #1 on US Apple Music on its first day, 2.3 million US Spotify first day (and grew in streams the rest of the week, peaking at 2.7 million by the end of the week), to finish the week with a whopping 93 million streams overall (most of them being from YouTube), as well as #1 in sales with 125,000 and 11.6 million in airplay.

Here's the thread that week in case anyone's curious: pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/197844/billboard-hot-100-08-2020

I also don't think Olivia drawing attention away would be much of a factor. There's been songs that have debuted big before alongside album bombs, and especially because these are different genres and have somewhat different audiences.

But the main point is that people tend to have a tendency to dictate a song's quality based on its commercial performance. It's evident from the pulse board at the time where everyone said the song wasn't great and was carried by the video UNTIL the numbers came out. Then people started to get it. Bongos obviously had nearly impossible shoes to fill with wap, it's fully expected it wasn't going to do numbers even near it.

But it's actually been rising on apple music and simultaneously, seems like it's growing on a lot of people on twitter. I fully expect it to start doing well soon after a subpar opening, especially with the girls performing it Tuesday

[andrebra]

9 top 20 hits would be a huge success for her!

[Choco]

I have not given it many spins yet but BIR? Is the highgliht on GUTS for me so I'm happy it's getting a higher peak.

Is it still too soon to deem BONGOS a miss? Down to #26 on Spotify today.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Maybe. It seems likely that it would need to be picked up by radio or get an album release boost or at stabilize. Otherwise, it probably become one of those relative high debuting songs that managed to chart for 20 weeks in the Hot 100.

[After Minutes]

Passionfruit is still holding on very strongly despite summer ending. It's outstreaming every older Drake song with 2,5 million weekly streams, including One Dance, and it's sitting comfortably in the top 200 on spotify each week over the summer. It never got the chart position it deserves, because in retrospect it genuinely feels like a top 5 most beloved Drake song. I wonder if in the right circumstances it could be another one of those older songs becoming big hits like Cruel Summer or Sure Thing

[85la]

Sept 10, 2023 16:40:41 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

Passionfruit is still holding on very strongly despite summer ending. It's outstreaming every older Drake song with 2,5 million weekly streams, including One Dance, and it's sitting comfortably in the top 200 on spotify each week over the summer. It never got the chart position it deserves, because in retrospect it genuinely feels like a top 5 most beloved Drake song. I wonder if in the right circumstances it could be another one of those older songs becoming big hits like Cruel Summer or Sure Thing

Probably not, because the old songs becoming hits trend seems to be only for songs that saw only minor to no initial chart success. Passionfruit already peaked in the top 10 of the Hot 100 with a fairly decent run. Yes, Sure Thing also had a decent initial run (though nowhere nearly as big as Passionfruit's, peaking at only #36), and that itself was almost exclusively from R&B/Rhythmic airplay, while its resurgence was almost exclusively due to pop. Passionfruit already peaked at #1 on Rhythmic, #19 on R&B/Hip-Hop, and #15 on Pop airplay, so that seems too familiar for any format to play it again as if it were a mostly new, unknown song, which seems to be the case for most other older songs getting resurgences (I certainly remember hearing it a lot on pop when it first came out in 2017).