Billboard Hot 100: 10/07/2023

[thegreatdivine]

dremolus - solarpunk oh yeah, I definitely wouldn't count her out as a hitmaker, plus as you mentioned, she's got the TikTok audience in the palm of her hand and she's only ever the right song away from getting a smash hit thanks to them.

I think we can safely say that Planet Her was carried very heavily by its several smash hits (all 5 singles off the album peaked in the Hot 100 top 20 with 3 of them reaching the top 10 and she managed to space them out well enough that almost a year after the album's release, she was still pushing singles).

I simply don't see that happening with Scarlet and I don't see it matching the Billboard 200 debut of Planet Her either.

I think she'll ride out this era for some months and then return back to her girly, pop-esque songs on the next record because that's the arena where she truly operates like she's untouchable.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

FIRST DAY US STREAMS

Zach Bryan - Boys of Faith EP: 7,285,968
Doja Cat - Scarlet: 8,452,192

Without PTTR, Scarlet only does 6,085,574. Doja's biggest debut (Agora Hills) also debuted lower than Zach's lowest debut.

[awkwardowl]

Sept 22, 2023 19:40:13 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Any particular reason Zach dropped an EP when he just dropped an album not even a month ago?

Two weeks ago he was arrested for "obstruction of investigation". He was quickly released but perhaps his team decided to shift attention from this incident. Maybe it's just some good songs that didn't make the album

[jayhawk1117]

Oof this is strikingly mid for Doja. Agora May not hit top ten

[fridayteenage]

Oh.
I wonder if dua will similarly be carried by a single or two that take awhile to catch on. At least doja's last album opened over 100k. It's interesting how hits can create big loyal fanbases for some (billie, olivia) but not others.

[wavey.]

It's only Saturday I-

Like chilll lol.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Sept 23, 2023 7:47:43 GMT -5 awkwardowl said:

Sept 22, 2023 19:40:13 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Any particular reason Zach dropped an EP when he just dropped an album not even a month ago?

Two weeks ago he was arrested for "obstruction of investigation". He was quickly released but perhaps his team decided to shift attention from this incident. Maybe it's just some good songs that didn't make the album

The arrest has nothing to do with this release because there's nothing to shift the public's attention away from anything. If you'd have actually looked up the story, you'd have known that all the amounted for the arrest was the fact his driver had been pulled over by a few cops and he came out of the car to confront them on why they were holding up them up for so long. That's it, that's all to be considered "obstructing justice". He didn't even serve a few hours in jail, he was immediately sent on bond. There's no drama, just cops being dicks.

The idea that these are leftovers is far more likely.

[kierz7]

Oh. “Scarlet” high-key bombed.

The numbers could grow throughout the week but even that’s a rare feat so perhaps not.

It can’t be because of the music itself because “PTTR” is a global smash-hit. I still think this result is most likely due to the visuals/her image & attitude turning a lot of stans/fans off.

If this moves lower first week numbers than “Planet Her”, well…

[Raccoon]

Yeah numbers are pretty bad and 9M of them being PTTR doesn’t help it

[wavey.]

Planet Her did 109k, her highest sales to date. So 80-100k still won't be a disappointment. We Although, it'll probably will look like it to some lol. Plus, she's going on tour, it'll work out in her favor. PH was massive, and she deserves to try a different lane, regardless of the results.

[lazer]

Sarah’s Place gives me 70s country vibes.

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 23, 2023 9:11:41 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Planet Her did 109k, her highest sales to date. So 80-100k still won't be a disappointment. We Although, it'll probably will look like it to some lol. Plus, she's going on tour, it'll work out in her favor. PH was massive, and she deserves to try a different lane, regardless of the results.

There's nothing to suggest she'll debut anywhere close to 80-100k with Scarlet. I think Olivia Rodrigo will return to #1 in her third week with about 70-90k units.

The thing with the streaming era, especially when it comes to major mainstream releases, is that you can easily infer how a song/album will perform, at least in its first week, from the first day. Scarlet flopped hard on Apple Music and that's where it was expected to perform the best since it's a rap album. It also flopped on Spotify and even if you wanna believe some songs will magically take off courtesy of TikTok, that will take some time. The TikTok virality effect didn't start to rub off on PTTR until after almost 2 weeks and the downside to that is that it's unpredictable/doesn't always work. Songs like Attention, Demons and Balut being released as promo singles and doing nothing, proved that.

I'm glad she made the album she felt she needed to make but I bet her team and her label convinces her to quickly return to her Hot Pink/Planet Her sound/style with a new album before she completely loses that audience because they're the entire reason why she can book an arena tour and will have hits to perform on said tour in the first place.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Sept 23, 2023 10:03:08 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Sept 23, 2023 9:11:41 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Planet Her did 109k, her highest sales to date. So 80-100k still won't be a disappointment. We Although, it'll probably will look like it to some lol. Plus, she's going on tour, it'll work out in her favor. PH was massive, and she deserves to try a different lane, regardless of the results.

There's nothing to suggest she'll debut anywhere close to 80-100k with Scarlet.

And you would be correct

[musiclife]

Idk why she isn't releasing physicals.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Ling-Ling]

Sept 23, 2023 10:15:04 GMT -5 musiclife said:

Idk why she isn't releasing physicals.

She had a CD release, no vinyls yet. She's definitely an artist of the streaming era though, not sure she would even shift many vinyl.

I said it earlier, I don't think she'll have a long run with this. The music and her image are more challenging this go round. I thought "PTTR" was big enough to turn the tide around, but it clearly isn't. I expected less than PH, but not this much less, I figured 90-100.

But as stated, she's never been a big opener, not albums or singles, so this could definitely be turned around depending on if any songs latch on. At the end of the day, the music is what truly counts. I'm just so happy she gave us an excellent album (career best IMO), a lot of these artists kept afloat by massive fanbases can't even serve that.

[jayhawk1117]

Sept 23, 2023 8:26:16 GMT -5 wavey. said:

It's only Saturday I-

Like chilll lol.

is Agora gonna jump in streams day 2 or something lol. I’m not doomposting Lol; the streams are indeed mid,, she’s getting GAPPED by Zach outside of PTTR.

[85la]

Sept 23, 2023 10:10:13 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Sept 23, 2023 10:03:08 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

There's nothing to suggest she'll debut anywhere close to 80-100k with Scarlet.

And you would be correct

She has CDs and digital album sales though, so that should up the total a bit, though not sure how much. Not saying it's not surprising though that she's opening lower than expected. It seems PTTR really turned things around, but I guess her recent antics still stuck with people and that's what's really hurting her. I wouldn't count this era out completely yet though, with the way none of her previous albums and many of her hits don't start off huge, I think there's a very high chance at least one other song (and possibly more) take off in a major way further down the road. As said, she's just one viral TikTok trend away.

[ddlz]

Sept 23, 2023 5:12:35 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

dremolus - solarpunk oh yeah, I definitely wouldn't count her out as a hitmaker, plus as you mentioned, she's got the TikTok audience in the palm of her hand and she's only ever the right song away from getting a smash hit thanks to them.

I think we can safely say that Planet Her was carried very heavily by its several smash hits (all 5 singles off the album peaked in the Hot 100 top 20 with 3 of them reaching the top 10 and she managed to space them out well enough that almost a year after the album's release, she was still pushing singles).

I simply don't see that happening with Scarlet and I don't see it matching the Billboard 200 debut of Planet Her either.

I think she'll ride out this era for some months and then return back to her girly, pop-esque songs on the next record because that's the arena where she truly operates like she's untouchable.

She has just learned that making faceless pop hits doesn't translate to having a solid core fanbase that actually cares for you. Why would she go back and pander to the most fickle crowd of fans and watch her career disappear overnight when they're done with her? 

Despite the weak first week numbers, this new album will do more good for her career in the long term than another collection of Dr Luke hits would.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Sept 23, 2023 12:04:23 GMT -5 85la said:

Sept 23, 2023 10:10:13 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

And you would be correct

She has CDs and digital album sales though, so that should up the total a bit, though not sure how much. Not saying it's not surprising though that she's opening lower than expected. It seems PTTR really turned things around, but I guess her recent antics still stuck with people and that's what's really hurting her. I wouldn't count this era out completely yet though, with the way none of her previous albums and many of her hits don't start off huge, I think there's a very high chance at least one other song (and possibly more) take off in a major way further down the road. As said, she's just one viral TikTok trend away.

The first weeks pure sales for Planet Her only comprised of 10,000 sales against 96,000 on-demand streams. Even if sales stayed the same for this era, that would still not be enough to get to 100K.

I also don't understand this obsession of saying whatever Twitter antics she did affected her sales. Most people aren't online or Twitter and no one cares if she dissed her fans or whatever she did (Truthfully I never cared and would like for it to stay that way). If whatever she did didn't even make national news or didn't warrant a PR apology, then it's nothing and it feels more of a case of moralizing economics than something that probably had other reasons for underperforming.

[shayonce]

AM US
Songs
11. Doja Cat - PTD
131. Doja Cat - Agora Hills

Albums
1. Rod Wave
2. Zach Bryan EP
3. Olivia Rodrigo
4. Doja Cat - Scarlet

btw, Doja's Planet Her did 132 million on-demand streams with 9.5k Sales in first week.
(*5K limited CD exclusively on her webstore)

[kimberly]

the Apple Music performance is surprising me, is there a chance it is because she has a 15-song version and a 17-song version of the album? Apple tends to not combine streams, right?

with no features and her new alt sound, I'm not surprised it won't open higher than Planet Her.

[Envoirment]

Sept 23, 2023 13:32:43 GMT -5 kimberly said:

the Apple Music performance is surprising me, is there a chance it is because she has a 15-song version and a 17-song version of the album?? Apple tends to not combine streams, right

with no features and her new alt sound, I'm not surprised it won't open higher than Planet Her.

Apple usually does, but IIRC there have been instances in the past where a song has two versions which chart separately but then get combined (like a single and album version, both being identical). Maybe the two album versions haven't been combined yet and will get combined/start appearing at some point in the next few days?

[kimberly]

Sept 23, 2023 13:38:19 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Sept 23, 2023 13:32:43 GMT -5 kimberly said:

the Apple Music performance is surprising me, is there a chance it is because she has a 15-song version and a 17-song version of the album?? Apple tends to not combine streams, right

with no features and her new alt sound, I'm not surprised it won't open higher than Planet Her.

Apple usually does, but IIRC there have been instances in the past where a song has two versions which chart separately but then get combined (like a single and album version, both being identical). Maybe the two album versions haven't been combined yet and will get combined/start appearing at some point in the next few days?

I'm hoping that's the case because none of the album cuts or previous releases from Doja showing up in the Top 200 is... odd. even Paint the Town Red should have had a bigger increase, I feel.

[korbel16]

Sept 23, 2023 10:03:08 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Sept 23, 2023 9:11:41 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Planet Her did 109k, her highest sales to date. So 80-100k still won't be a disappointment. We Although, it'll probably will look like it to some lol. Plus, she's going on tour, it'll work out in her favor. PH was massive, and she deserves to try a different lane, regardless of the results.

There's nothing to suggest she'll debut anywhere close to 80-100k with Scarlet. I think Olivia Rodrigo will return to #1 in her third week with about 70-90k units.

The thing with the streaming era, especially when it comes to major mainstream releases, is that you can easily infer how a song/album will perform, at least in its first week, from the first day. Scarlet flopped hard on Apple Music and that's where it was expected to perform the best since it's a rap album. It also flopped on Spotify and even if you wanna believe some songs will magically take off courtesy of TikTok, that will take some time. The TikTok virality effect didn't start to rub off on PTTR until after almost 2 weeks and the downside to that is that it's unpredictable/doesn't always work. Songs like Attention, Demons and Balut being released as promo singles and doing nothing, proved that.

I'm glad she made the album she felt she needed to make but I bet her team and her label convinces her to quickly return to her Hot Pink/Planet Her sound/style with a new album before she completely loses that audience because they're the entire reason why she can book an arena tour and will have hits to perform on said tour in the first place.

and PTTR being the only hit plus it sounding the most like her old sound.. ya it’s very telling what the general public likes from her, unfortunately

[Choco]

If the market favored steady risers instead of huge debuts and subsequent dropouts sure, but opening numbers are almost always a big tell.

And this is Doja's fourth album, her third if you don't count Amala which most people never heard. She's not an unknown, like she was when Hot Pink opened in the 90s on the BB200 before eventually hitting top 10.

I really like Agora and I think radio can carry it to a healthy run (hell, PTTR didn't exactly debut huge either), but I still think she moves on to another project next year.

[lazer]

I do think trashing on fans kinda backfired for Doja. Also, many songs from Scarlet do not have the same appeal as her previous catalog. PTTR is successful because it was more in line with Hot Pink/Planet Her.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 09/22/23

1(=) Doja Cat - Paint the Town Red 2,366,618 (+562,638) (+31%)
2(DEBUT) Zach Bryan, Noah Kahan - Sarah's Place 2,048,226
3(-1) Zach Bryan, Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything 1,756,662 (+234,534)
4(DEBUT) Zach Bryan, Bon Iver - Boys of Faith 1,537,677
5(-2) Drake, SZA - Slime You Out 1,520,827 (+19,495)
6(DEBUT) Zach Bryan - Deep Satin 1,366,019
7(-1) Gunna - fukumean 1,328,891 (+88,508)
8(-4) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire 1,269,989 (-26,763)
9(-4) Olivia Rodrigo - bad idea right? 1,268,050 (+6,484)
10(DEBUT) Zach Bryan - Nine Ball 1,253,435

Olivia Rodrigo - GUTS [12/12]
14(-7) get him back! 1,063,504 (-49,443)
18(-8) all-american bitch 916,131 (-49,652)
28(-12) the grudge 747,262 (-58,114)
41(-16) lacy 650,940 (-43,888)
45(-19) making the bed 636,699 (-56,576)
47(-14) love is embarrassing 632,267 (-32,316)
50(-18) ballad of a homeschooled girl 626,057 (-42,210)
53(-18) logical 608,972 (-44,357)
79(-29) pretty isn't pretty 494,735 (-38,464)
133(-54) teenage dream 413,231 (-37,599)
Total Fifteenth Day Streams: 9,327,837 (-5%)

Other:
11(-3) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 1,184,171 (+98,876)
12(-3) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 1,151,437 (+66,842)
13(DEBUT) Zach Bryan - Paint, Sweet, Pain 1,080,611
15(-4) Travis Scott - I KNOW ? 989,511 (+45,271)
16(DEBUT) Doja Cat - Agora Hills 973,170
17(-4) Tate McRae - greedy 919,063 (+85,494) (+10%)
19(-5) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 866,684 (+56,633)
20(+97) Lil Tecca - 500lbs 863,148 (+462,786) (+116%) *new peak*
21(-4) Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros, Junior H - LADY GAGA 831,862 (+27,100)
22(-10) Earth, Wind, & Fire - September 807,307 (-64,257)
23(=) Oliver Anthony Music - Rich Men North of Richmond 803,267 (+92,715) (+13%)
24(-9) SZA - Snooze 800,685 (-5,319)
25(-7) KAROL G, Peso Pluma - QLONA 793,116 (+30,903)
26(+8) Bailey Zimmerman - Religiously 787,400 (+129,014) (+20%)
27(-8) Zach Bryan, The War and Treaty - Hey Driver 753,779 (+7,690)
29(-7) Luke Combs - Fast Car 743,088 (+20,486)
32(-5) Travis Scott, Drake - MELTDOWN 712,330 (+30,204)
33(+4) Kenya Grace - Strangers 707,673 (+73,118) (+12%) *new peak*
34(-10) Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? 700,589 (-1,485)
35(DEBUT) Lil Tecca - Dead or Alive 696,802
38(-9) Dua Lipa - Dance the Night 683,291 (+7,850)
39(re-entry) Lil Tecca, Kodak Black - HVN ON EARTH 676,349
42(DEBUT) Doja Cat - Wet Vagina 649,777
43(re-entry) Doja Cat - Demons 644,530
44(-8) Nicki Minaj, Ice Spice - Barbie World 639,872 (-271)
46(-18) Jung Kook, Latto - Seven 634,657 (-43,878)
48(+93) blink-182 - ONE MORE TIME 628,089 (+257,614) (+70%) *new peak*
49(-8) Brent Faiyaz - Clouded 627,511 (+18,828)
51(-5) Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine 625,312 (+72,495) (+13%)
52(-9) Travis Scott, SZA, Future - TELEKINESIS 615,258 (+31,569)
54(DEBUT) Doja Cat - Gun 606,570
58(-18) Zach Bryan - Tourniquet 594,843 (-17,046)
60(-3) Zach Bryan - Heading South 572,408 (+68,707) (+14%)
61(-9) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 562,384 (+51,552) (+10%)
62(+23) Shakira, Fuerza Regida - El Jefe 555,740 (+112,911) (+25%) *new peak*
64(DEBUT) Doja Cat - Fuck the Girls (FTG) 540,948
65(DEBUT) Doja Cat - Ouchies 540,758
66(-18) Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - FE!N 532,048 (-9,751)
68(-17) Zach Bryan, The Lumineers - Spotless 522,467 (-2,897)
69(-4) Myke Towers - LALA 515,179 (+34,147)
70(-9) Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me 515,173 (+23,077)
71(-17) David Kushner - Daylight 514,953 (+6,034)
73(+9) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 506,531 (+60,143) (+13%)
74(DEBUT) Lil Tecca, Ken Caron - Fell in Love 506,092
82(-4) Noah Kahan, Post Malone - Dial Drunk Remix 490,697 (+39,669)
85(-23) Taylor Swift - Style 483,380 (-3,137)
86(DEBUT) Doja Cat - 97 483,330
89(DEBUT) Lil Tecca - Yves 477,171
92(-15) Fuerza Regida - SABOR FRESA 466,632 (+15,242)
93(DEBUT) Doja Cat - Go Off 465,591
97(-30) Zach Bryan - East Side of Sorrow 453,111 (-23,912)
98(-24) Taylor Swift - august 452,323 (-3,120)
99(+1) Calle 24, Chino Pacas, Fuerza Regida - Que Onda 451,577 (+29,614)
100(+45) Zach Bryan - Fear and Friday's 450,116 (+83,646) (+23%)

102(-4) Rod Wave - Boyz Don't Cry 447,482 (+23,308)
104(-18) Ice Spice - Deli 443,942 (+2,199)
106(-36) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 442,563 (-24,623)
107(-18) Taylor Swift - Blank Space 442,038 (+7,114)
108(DEBUT) Lil Tecca - Gist 439,931
109(-18) Rema, Selena Gomez - Calm Down 438,951 (+6,518)
110(-9) Peso Pluma, Grupo Frontera - TULUM 438,157 (+16,208)
112(-4) KAROL G - MI EX TENÍA RAZÓN 435,004 (+23,624)
113(+30) Tyler Childers - Feathered Indians 434,923 (+68,200) (+19%)
114(-31) Laufey - From the Start 434,620 (-8,846)
117(DEBUT) Brent Faiyaz - WY@ 430,241
121(-33) PARTYNEXTDOOR - Break from Toronto 425,429 (-9,854)
122(-29) Taylor Swift - cardigan 425,219 (-6,221)
125(-23) Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nuñez - LAGUNAS 424,476 (+4,365)
126(+20) Tyler Childers - All Your'n 420,877 (+57,382) (+16%)
129(-48) Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion - Bongos 419,337 (-27,926)
131(DEBUT) Lil Tecca - TEC 414,292
141(-42) Steve Lacy - Infrunami 405,662 (-16,792)
142(DEBUT) Doja Cat - Can't Wait 405,365
143(DEBUT) Doja Cat - Shutcho 403,340
147(-22) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 395,260 (+3,835)
150(-17) Young Nudy, 21 Savage - Peaches & Eggplants 392,837 (+11,334)
151(-28) The Weeknd, Playboi Carti, Madonna - Popular 392,597(+555)
152(-22) juju<3 - Wasted Summers 392,254 (+9,135)
153(-13) Zach Bryakn - Oklahoma Smokeshow 390,380 (+18,599)
156(-29) Rod Wave, 21 Savage - Turks & Caicos 388,279 (-1,154)
159(DEBUT) Lil Tecca - Salty 386,398
163(-19) Charlie XCX - Speed Drive 382,167 (+15,468)
168(-40) Miley Cyrus - Used to Be Young 373,542 (-14,889)
170(re-entry) Doja Cat - Attention 372,195
171(-23) That Mexican OT, Paul Wall, DRODi - Johnny Dang 371,445 (+10,436)
174(-11) Carin Leon - Primera Cita 368,639 (+19,430)
175(-11) Zach Bryan - Revival 368,213 (+21,371)
176(-8) Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nuñez, Junior H - BIPOLAR 365,689 (+25,324)
179(DEBUT) Morgan Wallen - Spin You Around 361,839
181(re-entry) HARDY - TRUCK BED 358,500
186(-49) Selena Gomez - Single Soon 354,540-377,214 (-22,674)
187(DEBUT) Lil Tecca - Real Discussions 352,595
189(-5) Grupo Frontera, Grupo Firme - EL AMOR DE SU VIDA 351,417 (+25,624)
190(+5) Sexyy Redd - SkeeYee 350,988 (+27,740)
194(-5) Peso Pluma - RUBICON 347,528 (+22,805)
197(DEBUT) Lil Tecca - Want It Bad 345,902
198(DEBUT) Malum, Carin Leon - Según Quién 345,731

Total First Day Streams for Doja Cat - Scarlet [12/17]: 8,452,192
Total First Day Streams for Zach Bryan - Boys of Faith EP [5/5]: 7,285,968
Total First Day Streams for Scarlet WITHOUT 'Paint the Town Red': 6,085,574
Total First Day Streams for Lil Tecca - TEC [10/16]: 5,158,680

Biggest Gains (50K+): All Your'n, Feathered Indians, Fear and Friday's, Sun to Me, El Jefe, Stick Season, Heading South, My Love Mine, All Mine, ONE MORE TIME, Strangers, Religiously, Rich Men North of Richmond, 500lbs, Something in the Orange, greedy, Cruel Summer, Last Night, fukumean, I Remember Everything, Paint the Town Red

[shayonce]

AM US
Songs
9.(+2) Doja Cat - PTD
85.(+46) Doja Cat - Agora Hills
140. Doja Cat - Agora Hills

Albums
1. Rod Wave
2. Zach Bryan EP
3. Olivia Rodrigo
4. Doja Cat - Scarlet