Billboard Hot 100: 10/21/2023

[velaxti]

Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious what people are talking about when they say the general public. In this context we're not part of the general public because we're following the charts, paying close attention to what songs are released each week, etc. It's a useful term as an easy way to generalise a large group of people. The guy who listens to the metal band in the gym is useless information when discussing the Hot 100 or a mainstream artist's streaming performance. The tens of millions of people who discover songs through playlists, nightclubs, social media, TV, radio, etc, are what drives a lot of what goes on in the charts. Everybody is different, but there are patterns, trends, similarities between people and it's OK to notice them and talk about them, even if there are exceptions.

[Deleted]

I typically consider anyone who isn't me to be general public

[fridayteenage]

day 3s US:
rich flex 2.53
major distribution ~2.00
pussy and millions 1.86
on bs 1.75
circo loco 1.56
spin 1.54
privileged 1.52
backoutside 1.39


jimmy cooks 1.87
sticky 1.07
fallin back 1.05


first person 1.99
idgaf 1.87
virginia 1.48
slime 1.27
calling for 1.12
gently 1.11

songs at 1.5 million: 7 vs. 1 vs. 2

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 10 » / « 09 »

1(=) SZA - Snooze 87.01(+0.28)
2(=) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 85.34(-0.14)
3(=) Luke Combs - Fast Car 84.30(-0.91)
4(=) Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down 70.92(-0.14)
5(=) Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red 70.64(+0.40)
6(=) Dua Lipa - Dance The Night 61.58(-0.45)
7(=) Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice - Barbie World (with Aqua) [From Barbie The Album] 61.17(-0.22)
8(=) Jelly Roll - Need A Favor 55.45(-0.74)
9(=) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 55.40(+0.04)
10(=) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire 50.79(-0.23)

13(+1) USHER, Summer Walker & 21 Savage - Good Good 45.59(+0.94) +

50(+5) Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? [From The Motion Picture "Barbie"] 20.86(+0.95) +

90(+5) Tate McRae - greedy 12.36(+1.01)

-(-) J Balvin, Usher, Dj Khaled - Dientes 9.46(+1.01) +

-(-) KAROL G & Peso Pluma - QLONA 4.21(+1.07) +

[Darkest Hour]

Bad Bunny will release a 22-song album this Friday.

[mms82]

Drake’s definitely overexposed in comparison to his peaks (which still puts him higher than any artist alive, save Taylor I guess)

But after his last “flop” era (I use extraordinarily light because Drake’s flops are bigger than almost any artist alive), he took a year almost entirely off after Signs and came back with God’s Plan and started his biggest eta yet. I hope he does something similar, takes time off and comes back with a great and huge era.

We expect a lot from Drake - as he says in Look Alive “I've been gone since like July, n****s actin' like I died”. It he goes for a year the appetite for Drake will be huge

[wavey.]

Benito!!!

[Music Fan]

Oct 9, 2023 11:13:33 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 10 » / « 09 »

-(-) KAROL G & Peso Pluma - QLONA 4.21(+1.07) +

Is this heavy edited -- or is there a clean version out there somewhere?  

[Choco]

I could see Bad Bunny outperforming Drake.

[fridayteenage]

I assume he will globally. Locally, idk. In the long run, likely.

[Music Fan]

Oct 9, 2023 12:59:44 GMT -5 Choco said:

I could see Bad Bunny outperforming Drake.

The album has more songs than Drake's... so only because of that I'd think it's possible. But we've seen Bad Bunny's recent outputs have performed well but not amazing (for Bad Bunny standards). If I recall, Un Verano opened to about 300k... so I'm not sure he can add 100k more, when his popularity has gone down a bit, to match Drake.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oct 9, 2023 9:07:32 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious what people are talking about when they say the general public. In this context we're not part of the general public because we're following the charts, paying close attention to what songs are released each week, etc. It's a useful term as an easy way to generalise a large group of people.

Except it's not useful. Who is this large group of people? Is it everyone else who doesn't follow charts? Or everyone who doesn't isn't a superfan of a particular artist? Is it specifically people of a certain age group, for example, everyone age 14-35?

Generally, when I see "general public" mentioned on here, I struggle to define exactly who that includes. In this thread, people have claimed that the general public has been eating up Drake's music for over a decade and I can honestly say I don't think I've ever met or known anyone who has ever claimed to know or like Drake's music outside of his bigger hits. So to read someone who Drake had the GP in a chokehold at any point in time is wild to me, because I'm like, did he? But I also say that as someone from eastern Canada, where most of my friends are in their late 20s to early 40s. I realize my perception of "general public" is likely going to differ, but it's clear to me that "GP" is still more specific than just saying "a large group of people" and leaving it at that. Maybe it's different in cities in the US, or in Toronto. Either way, GP is a term that doesn't really apply anymore. Where Taylor Swift, Drake, The Weeknd, Bad Bunny, Doja Cat, are the biggest names in music now, they still have a targeted demographic when it comes to their music.

I realize this isn't related specifically to this chart but it's a question I've had time and time again that's come up that I wanted to bring up to see if anyone had a real answer. If there's enough interest in this as a topic, I could ask it in a separate thread I guess.

[Deleted]

It's very obvious when an artists is dropped by the GP (Post Malone and Katy)

I don't think 100m streams first day and Top 23 on Apple Music fits that category.

[Choco]

Oct 9, 2023 13:07:00 GMT -5 Music Fan said:

Oct 9, 2023 12:59:44 GMT -5 Choco said:

I could see Bad Bunny outperforming Drake.

The album has more songs than Drake's... so only because of that I'd think it's possible. But we've seen Bad Bunny's recent outputs have performed well but not amazing (for Bad Bunny standards). If I recall, Un Verano opened to about 300k... so I'm not sure he can add 100k more, when his popularity has gone down a bit, to match Drake.

The last few Bad Bunny songs were crap tho. If the album is as good as Un Verano Sin Ti... it's a big if, but I don't think 400k is out of reach.

[eagle27]

Lmao the GP dropped Drake?? Currently with a bunch of people who all said they listened. Most said they didn’t like it but the magnitude of people tuned in for new Drake albums is like no other.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Although this Hot 100 prediction is about a day old, it makes sense given the US Spotify losses in FATD's second day:

[lazer]

The "GP" did show up to listen to FOTD, but honestly the album was frontloaded af.

[fridayteenage]

Not that Youtube is usu a big factor in the US these days, but 10/7-10/8:

1 +1
Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red
1,461,943 -151,215

2 +2
SZA - Snooze
1,365,391 -107,076

6 -5
Drake - First Person Shooter (feat. J. Cole)
1,197,496 -647,527

(other drakes are under the t20)

[kcdawg13]

I think it's apparent that Drake peaked commercially in 2018, he'll never be bigger than he was that year.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 10/07/23

Drake - For All the Dogs [23/23]
1(=) First Person Shooter 1,985,900 (-957,248) (-33%)
2(=) IDGAF 1,869,943 (-788,848) (-30%)
3(=) Virginia Beach 1,477,535 (-743,897) (-33%)
4(+1) Slime You Out 1,269,537 (-570,395) (-31%)
6(-2) Calling for You 1,120,292 (-767,343) (-41%)
8(=) Gently 1,111,300 (-612,598) (-36%)
9(-3) Daylight 1,088,261 (-710,286) (-39%)
10(+2) Rich Baby Daddy 1,037,318 (-444,410) (-30%) *NEW PEAK*
11(-4) Fear of Heights 1,037,308 (-710,234) (-41%)
14(-1) 8am in Charlotte 958,889 (-522,368) (-35%)
15(-6) 7969 Santa 950,886 (-627,841) (-40%)
18(-8) Amen 898,270 (-621,555) (-41%)
20(-6) What Would Pluto Do 866,853 (-489,387)
21(-6) Bahamas Paradise 819,979 (-508,931)
22(-6) Tried Our Best 814,633 (-50,9305)
24(-4) Another Late Night 765,814 (-429,064)
25(-7) All the Parties 749,023 (-471,181)
26(-7) Members Only 731,684 (-466,307)
29(-8) Drew A Picasso 708,654 (-467,136)
31(-6) Away From Home 653,936 (-392,856)
43(-14) Polar Opposites 541,770 (-392,856)
45(-18) BBL Love - Interlude 537,909 (-366,321)
54(-26) Screw the World - Interlude 493,122 (-390,666)
Total Third Day Streams: 22,488,816 (-37%)

Top 10 Without 'For All The Dogs'
5(+6) Doja Cat - Paint the Town Red 1,249,350 (-245,156)
7(+10) Zach Bryan, Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything 1,113,311 (-148,745)
12(+10) Gunna - fukumean 1,020,198 (-122,278)
13(+10) Tate McRae - greedy 974,632 (-132,259)
16(+8) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 919,400 (-150,733)
17(+13) Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine 908,078  (+32,572)
19(+7) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 881,630 (-132,920)
23(+8) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire 782,412 (-87,451)
27(+6) Travis Scott - I KNOW ? 729,643 (-418,73)
28(+4) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 727,340 (-66,570)

Other:
30(+4) Olivia Rodrigo - bad idea right? 673,852 (-93,394)
32(+4) Kenya Grace - Strangers 624,579 (-85,852)
34(+5) SZA - Snooze 618,309 (-58,152)
35(=) Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros, Junior H - LADY GAGA 618,200 (-114,895)
36(+7) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 612,732 (-11,541)
37(=) KAROL G, Peso Pluma - QLONA 595,197 (-102,639)
38(+2) Doja Cat - Agora Hills 594,465 (-76,784)
39(+2) Travis Scott, Drake - MELTDOWN 581,487 (-78,052)
41(+10) Lil Tecca - 500lbs 544,840 (-14,146)
42(+2) Olivia Rodrigo - get him back! 544,476 (-59,634)
48(-2) Jung Kook, Jack Harlow - 3D 518,252 (-64,237) (-11%)
49(+10) Frank Ocean - Pink + White 513,358 (-15,498)
51(-4) Luke Combs - Fast Car 507,483 (-68,733)
52(+4) Billie Eilish - What Was I Made For? 500,116 (-41,576)
56(-3) Zach Bryan, The War and Treaty - Hey Driver 490,851 (-57,850)
57(-7) Dua Lipa - Dance the Night 480,126 (-86,583)
58(=) Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me 474,184 (-56,982)
59(+1) Jung Kook, Latto - Seven 471,895 (-39,552)
60(-5) Oliver Anthony Music - Rich Men North of Richmond 469,223 (-77,006)
61(+9) Brent Faiyaz - Clouded 464,776 (-4,424)
63(-2) Travis Scott, SZA, Future - TELEKINESIS 456,133 (-52,184)
65(+3) Zach Bryan, Noah Kahan - Sarah's Place 446,087 (-32,724)
68(-4) Nicki Minaj, Ice Spice - Barbie World 441,037 (-61,743)
71(+2) Zach Bryan - Heading South 432,273 (-28,334)
72(-1) Olivia Rodrigo - all-american bitch 424,738 (-43,127)
74(+14) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 420,762 (-4,054)
75(-10) Bad Bunny - UN PREVIEW 420,568 (-78,980)
76(-13) Myke Towers - LALA 418,455 (-85,885)
77(-5) Bailey Zimmerman - Religiously 417,881 (-45,188)
79(+5) Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - FE!N 409,413 (-26,586)
80(-3) Taylor Swift - Style 405,480 (-44,123)
83(+2) Zach Bryan - Tourniquet 393,471 (-39,612)
84(-6) Calle 24, Chino Pacas, Fuerza Regida - Que Onda 392,460 (-54,299)
86(-19) Noah Kahan, Kacey Musgraves - She Calls Me Back 385,734 (-100,600) (-21%)
88(+6) David Kushner - Daylight 384,473 (-31,574)
89(-7) Taylor Swift - Blank Space 384,191 (-54,923)
91(-1) Noah Kahan, Post Malone - Dial Drunk Remix 378,873 (-40,958)
93(+10) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 377,561 (-21,440)
96(+8) Taylor Swift - cardigan 376,895 (-20,754)
97(-2) Tyla - Water 375,730 (-33,841)
98(-5) Ice Spice - Deli 374,774 (-41,546)
100(+13) PARTYNEXTDOOR - Break from Toronto 372,217 (-5,794)

104(+6) Taylor Swift - august 364,962 (-18,041)
107(-5) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 356,818 (-43,798)
108(-12) Malum, Carin Leon - Según Quién 354,428 (-54,687)
114(+20) Laufey - From the Start 346,480 (-2,946)
115(-14) Fuerza Regida - SABOR FRESA 345,097 (-55,702)
120(+4) Olivia Rodrigo - the grudge 336,970 (-27,050)
124(+17) SUICIDAL-IDOL - ecstacy (slowed) 335,292 (-7,342) *NEW PEAK*
125(+22) TV Girl - Not Allowed 334,158 (+1,059)
127(-11) Peso Pluma, Jasiel Nuñez - LAGUNAS 331,353 (-46,658)
131(-31) Jessie Murphy, Jelly Roll - Wild Ones 325,671 (-75,819) (-19%)
132(-14) Peso Pluma, Grupo Frontera - TULUM 324,150 (-51,400)
134(+8) Olivia Rodrigo - lacy 323,168 (-17,550)
138(+39) Richy Mitch & The Coal Miners - Evergreen 316,428 (+1,886)
139(+25) Steve Lacy - Infrunami 316,017 (-4,296)
142(-15) Rema, Selena Gomez - Calm Down 311,632 (-17,126)
145(+8) Tyler Childers - All Your'n 308,668 (-17,126)
152(re-entry) juju<3 - Wasted Summers 303,653
159(-37) NewJeans - GODS 301,788 (-63,019) (-17%)
161(-18) Sexyy Red - SkeeYee 301,470 (-37,608)
163(+19) Tyler Childers - Feathered Indians 296,263 (-16,157)
164(-19) Zach Bryan, The Lumineers - Spotless 295,769 (-41,247)
167(+14) Zach Bryan - Revival 293,627 (-19,541)
168(+2) Zach Bryan, Bon Iver - Boys of Faith 290,529 (-26,850)
177(-10) The Weeknd, Playboi Carti, Madonna - Popular 283,060 (-35,813)
182(-57) JENNIE - You & Me 279,176-361,699 (-82,523) (-23%)
185(+9) Rod Wave - Boyz Don't Cry 278,666 (-53,984)
189(re-entry) Rod Wave, 21 Savage - Turks & Caicos 277,755
200(re-entry) Odetari, 6lives - I LOVE YOU HOE 272,263

US TOP 20 WITHOUT FOR ALL THE DOGS
#1. Paint the Town Red
#2. I Remember Everything
#3. fukumean
#4. greedy
#5. Cruel Summer
#6. My Love Mine All Mine *NEW PEAK*
#7. Last Night
#8. vampire
#9. I KNOW ?
#10. Something in the Orange

#11. bad idea right?
#12. Strangers
#13. Kill Bill
#14. Snooze
#15. LADY GAGA
#16. Stick Season *NEW PEAK*
#17. QLONA
#18. Agora Hills
#19. MELTDOWN
#20. Ella Baila Sola

[Enigma.]

IDGAF is shooting up on Spotify, #1 with 2.24M - maybe that will become the "real" hit from the album.

[musiclife]

Chance album projections might be lowered? He has absolutely collapsed through the week.

[kcdawg13]

Week 2 is gonna be brutal

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 9, 2023 21:47:21 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I think it's apparent that Drake peaked commercially in 2018, he'll never be bigger than he was that year.

3 #1 hit singles (2 of which were back to back #1 debuts) which spent a combined 29 weeks at #1 (4 #1 hits, if you include Sicko Mode). 
13 top 10 hits. 
#1 IFPI Global Artist. 
Most-streamed artist in the US. 
Best-selling album in the US. 
Most-streamed artist on Spotify. 
Most-streamed artist on Apple Music. 

I don't think there are 5 artists this century who have dominated an entire year like that. Drake managing to do so even once, is an accomplishment in an of itself. 

[eagle27]

In my lifetime, 2018 Drake and 2023 Taylor Swift are probably the most dominant years I’ve seen for an artist. The way that they very possibly could be the top 2 decade end artists again.

[badrobot]

Oct 10, 2023 7:30:25 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Oct 9, 2023 21:47:21 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

I think it's apparent that Drake peaked commercially in 2018, he'll never be bigger than he was that year.

3 #1 hit singles (2 of which were back to back #1 debuts) which spent a combined 29 weeks at #1 (4 #1 hits, if you include Sicko Mode). 
13 top 10 hits. 
#1 IFPI Global Artist. 
Most-streamed artist in the US. 
Best-selling album in the US. 
Most-streamed artist on Spotify. 
Most-streamed artist on Apple Music. 

I don't think there are 5 artists this century who have dominated an entire year like that. Drake managing to do so even once, is an accomplishment in an of itself. 

Usher 2004 and Black Eyed Peas 2009 would be the other similar examples I could think of. Hard to compare given each was in a different chart era. But definitely Drake was a monster in 2018.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 10 » / « 10 »

1(=) SZA - Snooze 87.36(+0.34)
2(=) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 85.70(+0.37)
3(=) Luke Combs - Fast Car 83.25(-1.06)
4(+1) Doja Cat - Paint The Town Red 71.40(+0.76)
5(-1) Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down 70.37(-0.55)
6(+1) Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice - Barbie World (with Aqua) [From Barbie The Album] 61.26(+0.10)
7(-1) Dua Lipa - Dance The Night 61.10(-0.49)
8(=) Jelly Roll - Need A Favor 55.55(+0.11)
9(=) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 55.31(-0.09)
10(=) Olivia Rodrigo - vampire 50.79(-0.00)

13(+1) Miley Cyrus - Used To Be Young 46.25(+0.73)

17(=) Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me 41.10(+0.82)

45(+3) Paul Russell - Lil Boo Thang 21.96(+0.82)

57(+3) Jelly Roll - Save Me (with Lainey Wilson) 19.62(+0.73)

[renfield75]

Oct 10, 2023 9:32:46 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Oct 10, 2023 7:30:25 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

3 #1 hit singles (2 of which were back to back #1 debuts) which spent a combined 29 weeks at #1 (4 #1 hits, if you include Sicko Mode). 
13 top 10 hits. 
#1 IFPI Global Artist. 
Most-streamed artist in the US. 
Best-selling album in the US. 
Most-streamed artist on Spotify. 
Most-streamed artist on Apple Music. 

I don't think there are 5 artists this century who have dominated an entire year like that. Drake managing to do so even once, is an accomplishment in an of itself. 

Usher 2004 and Black Eyed Peas 2009 would be the other similar examples I could think of. Hard to compare given each was in a different chart era. But definitely Drake was a monster in 2018.

Usher in '04 is the first person I thought of too. He could do absolutely no wrong that year. Could you imagine the Confessions era with streaming?!?!?

[Envoirment]

It'll be interesting to see how high Mitski can go. Up to #13 on US spotify with 1.1 million streams, highest streams so far. Hopefully Drake will continue to fall and Mitski can make the top 3 or even #1?

[Groovy]

I would like to add the Black Eyed Peas in 2009, I know it was only 2 songs that went to 1 but 26 week, a half year on top is an insane feat.