2024 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 12)

[rockgolf]

So this is apparantly the last week of Billboard Calendar 2004 (Oct 19). Therefore this is my

Unofficial Billboard Top 100 of 2024

Congratulations to Jimin & Ella Langley for just squeaking in there.

And special bonus congratulations to the late, great Harry Houdini for having two consecutive songs named after him in the top 50. This would be one of the greatest chart coincidences of all time if this prediction is accurate.

[SPRΞΞ]

#1 should be I Had Some Help. Wasn't it Top 2 like all year?

2 Houdini songs back to back, lol.

[chartwatcher04]

Oct 15, 2024 14:16:36 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

#1 should be I Had Some Help. Wasn't it Top 2 like all year?

2 Houdini songs back to back, lol.

"I Had Some Help" charted in like the late spring I think, and songs that chart that late usually don't have a chance to be #1. Lose Control was in the top 10 for almost the whole year, so it was able to rack up a lot of points to be #1. A Bar Song was the main chart leader of the year, but since it charted late it will only be #2 (just like As It Was back in 2022).

[neogale]

Here's my silly "prediction" for the Global 200 Year-End list for 2024. I think it's silly, because it's obviously very flawed: I'm using an inverse-point system built around what I believe is the average amount of points each position amounts to following TOTC's predictions, as well as focusing my efforts exclusively on the top 100 positions (despite being a 200-positions chart).

Anyways, I want to be surprised if the official list happens to coincide in any way with this prediction, so here it goes:

Tracking period: 10/28/2023 - 10/19/2024.

#	Title	Artist(s)	WOC	Points
01	Beautiful Things	Benson Boone	38	10.076
02	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	52	9.466
03	Greedy	Tate McRae	52	9.281
04	Lose Control	Teddy Swims	49	9.257
05	Espresso	Sabrina Carpenter	26	8.027
06	Stick Season	Noah Kahan	51	6.809
07	A Bar Song (Tipsy)	Shaboozey	26	6.466
08	Birds Of A Feather	Billie Eilish	21	6.445
09	I Remember Everything	Zach Bryan Feat. Kacey Musgraves	52	6.170
10	Lovin On Me	Jack Harlow	32	6.170
11	Seven	Jung Kook Feat. Latto	52	6.145
12	Gata Only	FloyyMenor X Cris Mj	34	6.097
13	Too Sweet	Hozier	29	6.078
14	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	52	5.760
15	One Of The Girls	The Weeknd, JENNIE & Lily Rose Deep	48	5.570
16	Not Like Us	Kendrick Lamar	23	5.420
17	I Had Some Help	Post Malone Feat. Morgan Wallen	22	5.206
18	Million Dollar Baby	Tommy Richman	24	5.174
19	Save Your Tears	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	52	5.146
20	Water	Tyla	40	5.085
21	Please Please Please	Sabrina Carpenter	18	5.064
22	We Can't Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)	Ariana Grande	31	5.013
23	Die For You	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	52	4.900
24	I Like The Way You Kiss Me	Artemas	29	4.889
25	End Of Beginning	Djo	34	4.743
26	Luna	Feid & ATL Jacob	43	4.653
27	Paint The Town Red	Doja Cat	30	4.556
28	Good Luck, Babe!	Chappell Roan	26	4.548
29	As It Was	Harry Styles	48	4.515
30	Another Love	Tom Odell	51	4.419
31	Snooze	SZA	43	4.235
32	Fortnight	Taylor Swift Feat. Post Malone	25	4.103
33	The Night We Met	Lord Huron	47	4.054
34	Blinding Lights	The Weeknd	50	3.985
35	Texas Hold 'Em	Beyoncé	22	3.944
36	Something In The Orange	Zach Bryan	49	3.920
37	La Diabla	Xavi	22	3.899
38	Someone You Loved	Lewis Capaldi	49	3.841
39	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	46	3.786
40	My Love Mine All Mine	Mitski	29	3.782
41	Austin	Dasha	31	3.769
42	Houdini	Dua Lipa	31	3.743
43	FE!N	Travis Scott Feat. Playboi Carti	39	3.611
44	Like That	Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar	25	3.594
45	Standing Next To You	Jung Kook	24	3.587
46	Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido	Karol G	16	3.459
47	Sweater Weather	The Neighbourhood	39	3.454
48	Perro Negro	Bad Bunny & Feid	27	3.245
49	Sunflower	Post Malone & Swae Lee	43	3.226
50	Bling-Bang-Bang-Born	Creepy Nuts	24	3.217
51	Qlona	Karol G & Peso Pluma	29	3.105
52	Die With A Smile	Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars	8	3.100
53	Strangers	Kenya Grace	24	3.039
54	Kill Bill	SZA	38	2.997
55	Stargazing	Myles Smith	22	2.996
56	Houdini	Eminem	19	2.954
57	Carnival	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign	15	2.953
58	Magnetic	ILLIT	22	2.924
59	Calm Down	Rema & Selena Gomez	31	2.922
60	Redrum	21 Savage	20	2.911
61	Who	Jimin	12	2.854
62	Vampire	Olivia Rodrigo	27	2.816
63	Yes, And?	Ariana Grande	14	2.814
64	What Was I Made For?	Billie Eilish	30	2.791
65	Slow It Down	Benson Boone	29	2.778
66	Prada	casso, RAYE & D-Block Europe	30	2.769
67	Lunch	Billie Eilish	20	2.735
68	I Can Do It With A Broken Heart	Taylor Swift	24	2.725
69	Saturn	SZA	24	2.706
70	I'm Good (Blue)	David Guetta & Bebe Rexha	37	2.688
71	I Wanna Be Yours	Arctic Monkeys	35	2.663
72	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	9	2.614
73	Chihiro	Billie Eilish	21	2.570
74	Belong Together	Mark Ambor	25	2.498
75	Según Quién	Maluma & Carín León	26	2.489
76	Pink Skies	Zach Bryan	20	2.450
77	Monaco	Bad Bunny	17	2.444
78	Si No Estás	Inigo Quintero	17	2.432
79	Anti-Hero	Taylor Swift	26	2.413
80	Daylight	David Kushner	26	2.406
81	Is It Over Now?	Taylor Swift	19	2.397
82	Unwritten	Natasha Bedingfield	26	2.381
83	Wildflower	Billie Eilish	21	2.368
84	Agora Hills	Doja Cat	23	2.340
85	Starboy	The Weeknd	29	2.282
86	I Don't Wanna Wait	David Guetta & OneRepublic	24	2.251
87	Feather	Sabrina Carpenter	28	2.196
88	Training Season	Dua Lipa	20	2.173
89	Last Christmas	Wham!	9	2.167
90	Viva La Vida	Coldplay	27	2.150
91	Dance The Night	Dua Lipa	22	2.140
92	Taste	Sabrina Carpenter	7	2.135
93	I Ain't Worried	OneRepublic	29	2.129
94	La Víctima	Xavi	17	2.118
95	3D	Jung Kook & Jack Harlow	17	2.096
96	Lover	Taylor Swift	25	2.093
97	Si No Quieres No	Luis R Conriquez x Neton Vega	24	2.057
98	Harley Quinn	Fuerza Regida & Marshmello	20	2.042
99	Perfect Night	LE SSERAFIM	20	2.013
100	Perfect	Ed Sheeran	25	1.917

[reputainbow]

SPOILER: Click to show

{Week 52}1 Lose Control (Teddy Swims) 10908
2 Lovin on Me (Jack Harlow) 9109
3 A Bar Song (Tipsy) (Shaboozey) 8858
4 Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) 8657
5 I Remember Everything (Zach Bryan/Kacey Musgraves) 8333
6 I Had Some Help (Post Malone/Morgan Wallen) 7538
7 Cruel Summer (Taylor Swift) 7420
8 Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) 7121
9 Greedy (Tate McRae) 6843
10 Stick Season (Noah Kahan) 6540
11 Too Sweet (Hozier) 6386
12 Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) 6345
13 Million Dollar Baby (Tommy Richman) 6101
14 Snooze (SZA) 5632
15 Like That (Future/Metro Boomin/Kendrick Lamar) 5406
16 Paint the Town Red (Doja Cat) 5257
17 Agora Hills (Doja Cat) 5236
18 Saturn (SZA) 4936
19 Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) 4814.8
20 Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) 4698
21 Please Please Please (Sabrina Carpenter) 4535
22 Fast Car (Luke Combs) 4447
23 Water (Tyla) 4203
24 Feather (Sabrina Carpenter) 4104.4
25 We Can't Be Friends (Wait for Your Love) (Ariana Grande) 3974
26 Austin (Dasha) 3894.6
27 Texas Hold 'Em (Beyonce) 3887.6
28 Last Night (Morgan Wallen) 3844
29 Is It Over Now? (Taylor Swift) 3645
30 Thinkin' Bout Me (Morgan Wallen) 3610
31 Fortnight (Taylor Swift/Post Malone) 3525.2
32 Cowgirls (Morgan Wallen/ERNEST) 3472
33 Wild Ones (Jessie Murph/Jelly Roll) 3268.8
34 Carnival (Kanye West/Ty Dolla $ign/Rich the Kid/Playboi Carti) 3265.6
35 Pink Skies (Zach Bryan) 3240
36 Miles on It (Marshmello/Kane Brown) 3234
37 I Can Do It With a Broken Heart (Taylor Swift) 3146.4
38 Ain't No Love In Oklahoma (Luke Combs) 3030
39 Wanna Be (GloRilla/Megan Thee Stallion) 2896
40 Slow It Down (Benson Boone) 2893.6
41 Redrum (21 Savage) 2822.4
42 Houdini (Eminem) 2704.2
43 Rich Baby Daddy (Drake/Sexyy Red/SZA) 2673.4
44 Houdini (Dua Lipa) 2665.6
45 What Was I Made For? (Billie Eilish) 2616.6
46 Yeah Glo! (GloRilla) 2568.8
47 Hot to Go! (Chappell Roan) 2455.6
48 Vampire (Olivia Rodrigo) 2448
49 Never Lose Me (Flo Milli) 2438
50 End of Beginning (Djo) 2432.4
51 Gata Only (FloyyMenor/Cris Mj) 2426.8
52 Type Shit (Future/Metro Boomin/Travis Scott/Playboi Carti) 2403.4
53 Pretty Little Poison (Warren Zeiders) 2354.8
54 Lunch (Billie Eilish) 2342
55 Made for Me (Muni Long) 2320
56 Lies Lies Lies (Morgan Wallen) 2287
57 Need a Favor (Jelly Roll) 2277
58 Get It Sexyy (Sexyy Red) 2272.6
59 First Person Shooter (Drake/J. Cole) 2242.4
60 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 2234
61 Save Me (Jelly Roll/Lainey Wilson) 2221
62 Flowers (Miley Cyrus) 2216
63 Die With a Smile (Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars) 2200
64 Whatever She Wants (Bryson Tiller) 2169.2
65 Truck Bed (HARDY) 2139.8
66 Where the Wild Things Are (Luke Combs) 2136.2
67 Stargazing (Myles Smith) 2118.4
68 I Am Not Okay (Jelly Roll) 2108
69 La Diabla (Xavi) 2107.2
70 I Like the Way You Kiss Me (Artemas) 2096.8
71 Pour Me a Drink (Post Malone/Blake Shelton) 2082
72 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 2079
73 IDGAF (Drake/Yeat) 2050.8
74 Monaco (Bad Bunny) 2049.2
75 Everybody (Nicki Minaj/Lil Uzi Vert) 2046.2
76 White Horse (Chris Stapleton) 2007
77 High Road (Koe Wetzel/Jessie Murph) 2005.4
78 Yes, And? (Ariana Grande) 1991.2
79 Burn It Down (Parker McCollum) 1976.8
80 Wind Up Missin' You (Tucker Wetmore) 1969
81 Wildflower (Billie Eilish) 1962.4
82 Fukumean (Gunna) 1958
83 Lil Boo Thang (Paul Russell) 1957
84 Good Good (Usher/Summer Walker/21 Savage) 1954.2
85 Act II: Date @ 8 (4Batz/Drake) 1950.4
86 On My Mama (Victoria Monet) 1885
87 World on Fire (Nate Smith) 1877.4
88 Where It Ends (Bailey Zimmerman) 1874.2
89 Exes (Tate McRae) 1864
90 Dance the Night (Dua Lipa) 1857
91 FE!N (Travis Scott/Playboi Carti) 1850.6
92 Euphoria (Kendrick Lamar) 1846.8
93 FTCU (Nicki Minaj) 1846.4
94 The Painter (Cody Johnson) 1844.6
95 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 1817
96 Bulletproof (Nate Smith) 1805.2
97 One of Wun (Gunna) 1785.4
98 Pink Pony Club (Chappell Roan) 1784.4
99 Kehlani (Jordan Adetunji) 1782.4
100 28 (Zach Bryan) 1753

SPOILER: Click to show

{#101-200}101 Chihiro (Billie Eilish) 1744
102 Last Christmas (Wham!) 1735
103 The Door (Teddy Swims) 1730.4
104 Taste (Sabrina Carpenter) 1727
105 TGIF (GloRilla) 1715
106 Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido (Karol G) 1714
107 My Love Mine All Mine (Mitski) 1678
108 Whiskey Whiskey (Moneybagg Yo/Morgan Wallen) 1674.8
109 Scared to Start (Michael Marcagi) 1657.2
110 Red Wine Supernova (Chappell Roan) 1650.8
111 Dirt Cheap (Cody Johnson) 1648
112 The Boy Is Mine (Ariana Grande) 1646
113 Think I'm In Love With You (Chris Stapleton) 1627
114 Surround Sound (JID/21 Savage/Baby Tate) 1625.2
115 Band4Band (Central Cee/Lil Baby) 1611.6
116 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 1595
117 You Broke My Heart (Drake) 1589.8
118 Who (Jimin) 1576
119 Used to Be Young (Miley Cyrus) 1574.8
120 You Look Like You Love Me (Ella Langley/Riley Green) 1570.6
121 Harley Quinn (Fuerza Regida/Marshmello) 1553.6
122 Man Made a Bar (Morgan Wallen/Eric Church) 1553.2
123 Get In With Me (BossMan Dlow) 1542.6
124 360 (Charli XCX) 1512
125 Down Bad (Taylor Swift) 1511
126 23 (Chayce Beckham) 1508.4
127 Standing Next to You (Jung Kook) 1461
128 One of the Girls (The Weeknd/JENNIE/Lily Rose Depp) 1460.8
129 Belong Together (Mark Ambor) 1437.2
130 Perro Negro (Bad Bunny/Feid) 1427.6
131 Strangers (Kenya Grace) 1419.6
132 Illusion (Dua Lipa) 1417.4
133 Si No Quieres No (Luis R Conriquez/Neton Vega) 1396.8
134 Mamushi (Megan Thee Stallion/Yuki Chiba) 1378.8
135 Selfish (Justin Timberlake) 1376
136 Soak City (Do It) (310babii) 1357.2
137 Mmhmm (BigXthaPlug) 1348
138 Spin You Around (1/24) (Morgan Wallen) 1324
139 500lbs (Lil Tecca) 1298
140 Nights Like This (The Kid Laroi) 1274.6
141 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 1267
142 Guy for That (Post Malone/Luke Combs) 1230.2
143 Bandit (Don Toliver) 1223.2
144 Wildflowers And Wild Horses (Lainey Wilson) 1205.2
145 We Ride (Bryan Martin) 1200
146 Get Him Back! (Olivia Rodrigo) 1194.4
147 Wine Into Whiskey (Tucker Wetmore) 1186.4
148 La Victima (Xavi) 1185.2
149 U My Everything (Sexyy Red/Drake) 1184.2
150 Beautiful as You (Thomas Rhett) 1182.4
151 Enough (Miami) (Cardi B) 1166.6
152 Chevrolet (Dustin Lynch/Jelly Roll) 1164
153 Big Dawgs (Hanumankind/Kalmi) 1157.6
154 Who's Afraid of Little Old Me? (Taylor Swift) 1156.8
155 Casual (Chappell Roan) 1113.6
156 Nasty (Tinashe) 1112
157 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 1101
158 Virginia Beach (Drake) 1072.8
159 Devil Is a Lie (Tommy Richman) 1060
160 Obsessed (Olivia Rodrigo) 1059.6
161 Praise Jah In the Moonlight (YG Marley) 1055.6
162 Bed Chem (Sabrina Carpenter) 1048
163 Guess (Charli XCX/Billie Eilish) 1041.2
164 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 1038
165 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 1019
166 I Know ? (Travis Scott) 1018.8
167 Bellakeo (Peso Pluma/Anitta) 1017.6
168 Que Onda (Calle 24/Chino Pacas/Fuerza Regida) 1004
169 I Can Feel It (Kane Brown) 996
170 Sweet Dreams (Koe Wetzel) 984.4
171 So Long, London (Taylor Swift) 973.8
172 Guilty as Sin? (Taylor Swift) 962.6
173 Mamaw's House (Thomas Rhett/Morgan Wallen) 960.8
174 Now That We Don't Talk (Taylor Swift) 958.6
175 Underneath the Tree (Kelly Clarkson) 942
176 But Daddy I Love Him (Taylor Swift) 937
177 My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys (Taylor Swift) 936.2
178 Help Me (Real Boston Richey) 933.6
179 Segun Quien (Maluma/Carin Leon) 921.6
180 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 921
181 Murder on the Dancefloor (Sophie Ellis-Bextor) 917.6
182 Santa Tell Me (Ariana Grande) 916
183 La Patrulla (Peso Pluma/Neton Vega) 901.8
184 Prove It (21 Savage/Summer Walker) 898.6
185 Apple (Charli XCX) 892.8
186 Great Gatsby (Rod Wave) 889.2
187 Qlona (Karol G/Peso Pluma) 887.4
188 Lonely Road (mgk/Jelly Roll) 885.6
189 Tu Name (Fuerza Regida) 881.6
190 Kill Bill (SZA) 876
191 ​Née-Nah (21 Savage/Travis Scott/Metro Boomin) 872.6
192 Halfway to Hell (Jelly Roll) 868
193 Cinderella (Future/Metro Boomin/Travis Scott) 866.6
194 Hey Driver (Zach Bryan/The War and Treaty) 864.4
195 Hiss (Megan Thee Stallion) 855.6
196 Igual Que Un Ángel (Kali Uchis/Peso Pluma) 853.2
197 Back Then Right Now (Tyler Hubbard) 846
198 Can't Catch Me Now (Olivia Rodrigo) 844.8
199 Tucson Too Late (Jordan Davis) 844
200 The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift) 840.4

[plankton5165]

Oct 15, 2024 9:53:58 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Oct 15, 2024 9:03:10 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Aside from "Lose Control" that is the expected Year-End #1 for this year, are there any instance of a Billboard Hot 100 Year-End #1 topped the weekly chart for only a single week? Daniel Powter's "Bad Day" and Justin Bieber's "Love Yourself" came to mind, but both didn't do so (the former having 5 weeks and the latter having 2)

The one that comes to mind for me is Hold On by Wilson Philips, #1 for the 1990 Hot 100 YE.

There's also Stranger on the Shore by Mr. Acker Bilk, which was the #1 of 1962. Some 62 years ago.

The 1960s is certainly not my favorite decade of music, and therefore not my strongpoint, yet I know this.

[GW]

interesting to see predictions looks quite different from those I see on big accounts on twitter, like talk of the charts. I wonder what the difference is?

[chartwatcher04]

Oct 15, 2024 20:53:02 GMT -5 GW said:

interesting to see predictions looks quite different from those I see on big accounts on twitter, like talk of the charts. I wonder what the difference is?

The difference is that people like Rockgolf use an inverse point system where they add a certain number of points depending on how a song places on the Hot 100. TalkoftheCharts and PositivityMaster48 (before he decided to quit this year) use a different metric that awards songs points depending on how well it does in terms of streaming, radio, and sales. Not just chart position. I don't know the exact metrics behind it, but their predictions tend to be WAY more accurate to Billboard's Year-End chart.

[gs]

Inverse points are ok for a cursory glance at the top songs, but unless you're diligently calculating real points, only TOTC's is actually accurate considering they do extremely close recalibrations of each chart to match what Billboard uses for their year-ends, within tiny margins of error. And given this Spring was extremely strong this year, inverse points are super off unless you at least use strength multipliers per ~week based on their posts. That's why Spring-peaking songs are too low on inverse point-calculated lists.

[gs]

Hot 100 top 10 prediction

#1 Lose Control (9,200)
#2 A Bar Song (Tipsy) (8,000)
#3 Beautiful Things (7,700)
#4 I Had Some Help (7,400)
#5 Lovin On Me (6,800)
#6 Not Like Us (6,700)
#7 Espresso (6,400)
#8 Million Dollar Baby (6,300)
#9 I Remember Everything (6,200)
#10 Too Sweet (6,100)

Global 200 top 10 prediction

#1 Beautiful Things (10,000)
#2 Lose Control (9,100)
#3 Espresso (8,600)
#4 Cruel Summer (8,500)
#5 Greedy (7,700)
#6 A Bar Song (Tipsy) (6,900)
#7 Birds Of A Feather (6,500)
#8 Too Sweet (6,500)
#9 Gata Only (6,400)
#10 Stick Season (6,300)

[Groovy]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Definitely excited that if is true that Taste and Chihiro ended up being the last two songs to lock up their spots in the YE. Also, it will be interesting to see how many songs get caught between YEs.

[jdanton2]

it looks like all the predictions have Lose Control at #1. if the chart was a January-December list A Bar Song might have had a chance.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Definitely so. By calculations, ABS managed about seven-eighths of Lose Control's YE Hot 100. The former did that in half-a-year, while Lose Control charted the whole year.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

This top 20 is actually good? Like I said before, not a fan of the top 5, but it's not tragic I guess.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^9 songs by women, 11 by men. Sabrina and SZA appear twice. Only 3 collabs. Among the top 20, I only don't care for Lovin on Me, Million Dollar Baby and Like That. Not bad at all ...

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Oct 16, 2024 15:20:41 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

^Definitely excited that if is true that Taste and Chihiro ended up being the last two songs to lock up their spots in the YE. Also, it will be interesting to see how many songs get caught between YEs.

Same! Particularly rooting for "CHIHIRO" to sneak in and not suffer the same fate as SZA's "Low" (predicted by TOTC at #100 last year but ultimately missed it).

As for the songs expected to get caught between years, I've been compiling a list. Unfortunately, it happens to involve a few of my personal favourite 2024 hits. This might be the most painful selection since 2019.

- "Pink Pony Club" by Chappell Roan ( )
- "The Door" by Teddy Swims (it's at least expected to make the UK Year-End, but man, how I wish it had been Swims' breakthrough over "Lose Control" )
- "you look like you love me" by Ella Langley ft. Riley Green (radio has finally gotten onboard, but it might be too late, not to mention it already has 16 weeks charting  )
- "Who" by Jimin ( )
- "Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido" by KAROL G ( )
- "KEHLANI" by Jordan Adetunji (also expected to make the UK Year-End, peaking at #8 there)
- "TGIF" by GloRilla
- "28" by Zach Bryan
- "Mamushi" by Megan Thee Stallion ft. Yuki Chiba
- "360" by Charli XCX ( )
- "WHISKEY WHISKEY" by Moneybagg Yo ft. Morgan Wallen
- "Guess" by Charli XCX ft. Billie Eilish (also expected to make the UK Year-End, at least, peaking at #1 there)
- "Lonely Road" by mgk & Jelly Roll

Some other songs that will have their chart runs split but are unlikely to accumulate enough points include "Red Wine Supernova" by Chappell Roan, "Think I'm In Love With You" by Chris Stapleton, "NIGHTS LIKE THIS" by The Kid LAROI, and "Guy For That" by Post Malone ft. Luke Combs

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

I see three holiday songs in the 2024 TOTC predicted YE Hot 100 that are within 1 position of their 2023 one: AIWFCIY. RATCT and JBR.

[chartwatcher04]

Oct 16, 2024 20:43:39 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

I see three holiday songs in the 2024 TOTC predicted YE Hot 100 that are within 1 position of their 2023 one: AIWFCIY. RATCT and JBR.

Man, it would be really lame if one of those ended up being the first YE hit to place in the same exact position twice.

[neogale]

I didn't intend to do this, but curiosity and boredom got the best of me, so...here's a second prediction for the Global 200 Year-End List. However, instead of exclusively using an inverse-point system like in my previous prediction, I compiled the real points that TalkOfTheCharts have been posted all year regarding this chart. However, there were many gaps in their predictions, so I tried my best to fill them by getting the data from Billboard's weekly articles, as well as in some instances, using an inverse-point system. I also did some modifications in order to fit their predictions into the actual results published by Billboard. I know this effort is not perfect (and in fact, it's incomplete as once again I ignored the bottom half of the chart for it), but it's the closest thing that I can currently compile.

Finally, in order to protect TOTC's efforts regarding their subscription-exclusive work, I'm only going to give rough numbers regarding the actual points each song amounts to. So...here it is:

Tracking period: 10/28/2023 - 10/19/2024.

#	Title	Artist(s)	WoC	Points
01	Beautiful Things	Benson Boone	38	10.000
02	Lose Control	Teddy Swims	49	9.000
03	Espresso	Sabrina Carpenter	26	8.600
04	Cruel Summer	Taylor Swift	52	8.300
05	Greedy	Tate McRae	52	7.800
06	A Bar Song (Tipsy)	Shaboozey	26	6.900
07	Birds Of A Feather	Billie Eilish	21	6.600
08	Too Sweet	Hozier	29	6.600
09	Gata Only	FloyyMenor X Cris Mj	34	6.500
10	Stick Season	Noah Kahan	51	6.100
11	Not Like Us	Kendrick Lamar	23	5.900
12	I Remember Everything	Zach Bryan Feat. Kacey Musgraves	52	5.800
13	Seven	Jung Kook Feat. Latto	52	5.700
14	Million Dollar Baby	Tommy Richman	24	5.700
15	I Had Some Help	Post Malone Feat. Morgan Wallen	22	5.700
16	Flowers	Miley Cyrus	52	5.500
17	Please Please Please	Sabrina Carpenter	18	5.400
18	I Like The Way You Kiss Me	Artemas	29	5.200
19	We Can't Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)	Ariana Grande	31	5.200
20	One Of The Girls	The Weeknd, JENNIE & Lily Rose Deep	48	5.100
21	Save Your Tears	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	52	5.000
22	Lovin On Me	Jack Harlow	32	4.900
23	Die For You	The Weeknd & Ariana Grande	52	4.800
24	Fortnight	Taylor Swift Feat. Post Malone	25	4.700
25	Water	Tyla	40	4.700
26	End Of Beginning	Djo	34	4.700
27	Good Luck, Babe!	Chappell Roan	26	4.500
28	As It Was	Harry Styles	48	4.500
29	Luna	Feid & ATL Jacob	43	4.400
30	Another Love	Tom Odell	51	4.400
31	Snooze	SZA	43	4.200
32	Paint The Town Red	Doja Cat	30	4.000
33	Blinding Lights	The Weeknd	50	4.000
34	The Night We Met	Lord Huron	47	3.900
35	Something In The Orange	Zach Bryan	49	3.900
36	Someone You Loved	Lewis Capaldi	49	3.800
37	Last Night	Morgan Wallen	46	3.800
38	Like That	Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar	25	3.800
39	Austin	Dasha	31	3.800
40	Texas Hold 'Em	Beyoncé	22	3.700
41	FE!N	Travis Scott Feat. Playboi Carti	39	3.500
42	Houdini	Dua Lipa	31	3.500
43	My Love Mine All Mine	Mitski	29	3.500
44	Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido	Karol G	16	3.400
45	Sweater Weather	The Neighbourhood	39	3.300
46	Standing Next To You	Jung Kook	24	3.200
47	Sunflower	Post Malone & Swae Lee	43	3.200
48	Houdini	Eminem	19	3.200
49	Die With A Smile	Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars	8	3.200
50	La Diabla	Xavi	22	3.200
51	Magnetic	ILLIT	22	3.100
52	Perro Negro	Bad Bunny & Feid	27	3.100
53	Kill Bill	SZA	38	3.100
54	Qlona	Karol G & Peso Pluma	29	3.000
55	I Can Do It With A Broken Heart	Taylor Swift	24	3.000
56	Lunch	Billie Eilish	20	3.000
57	Stargazing	Myles Smith	22	2.900
58	Bling-Bang-Bang-Born	Creepy Nuts	24	2.900
59	Calm Down	Rema & Selena Gomez	31	2.900
60	All I Want For Christmas Is You	Mariah Carey	9	2.900
61	Strangers	Kenya Grace	24	2.800
62	What Was I Made For?	Billie Eilish	30	2.800
63	Vampire	Olivia Rodrigo	27	2.800
64	Prada	casso, RAYE & D-Block Europe	30	2.800
65	Slow It Down	Benson Boone	29	2.700
66	Chihiro	Billie Eilish	21	2.700
67	I'm Good (Blue)	David Guetta & Bebe Rexha	37	2.700
68	I Wanna Be Yours	Arctic Monkeys	35	2.700
69	Who	Jimin	12	2.600
70	Saturn	SZA	24	2.600
71	Carnival	¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign	15	2.500
72	Last Christmas	Wham!	9	2.500
73	Belong Together	Mark Ambor	25	2.500
74	Redrum	21 Savage	20	2.500
75	Según Quién	Maluma & Carín León	26	2.500
76	Pink Skies	Zach Bryan	20	2.400
77	Anti-Hero	Taylor Swift	26	2.400
78	Daylight	David Kushner	26	2.400
79	Yes, And?	Ariana Grande	14	2.400
80	Unwritten	Natasha Bedingfield	26	2.300
81	Wildflower	Billie Eilish	21	2.300
82	Starboy	The Weeknd	29	2.300
83	Monaco	Bad Bunny	17	2.300
84	Si No Estás	Inigo Quintero	17	2.300
85	Agora Hills	Doja Cat	23	2.300
86	I Don't Wanna Wait	David Guetta & OneRepublic	24	2.200
87	Is It Over Now?	Taylor Swift	19	2.200
88	Feather	Sabrina Carpenter	28	2.200
89	Taste	Sabrina Carpenter	7	2.100
90	Lover	Taylor Swift	25	2.100
91	Dance The Night	Dua Lipa	22	2.100
92	I Ain't Worried	OneRepublic	29	2.100
93	Training Season	Dua Lipa	20	2.100
94	Viva La Vida	Coldplay	27	2.100
95	3D	Jung Kook & Jack Harlow	17	2.000
96	Si No Quieres No	Luis R Conriquez x Neton Vega	24	2.000
97	Harley Quinn	Fuerza Regida & Marshmello	20	2.000
98	Perfect Night	LE SSERAFIM	20	1.900
99	Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree	Brenda Lee	7	1.900
100	Perfect	Ed Sheeran	25	1.900

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Do any of y'all have any clue or guess on when the Year-End charts comes out?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Based on when it came out last year, it would come out on November 19, 2024.

[mikerivera]

I'm gonna post the TOTC predictions formatted for Pulse in a little bit, but first I want to provide an update on the J-D list with 10 weeks left.

1. Lose Control - Teddy Swims 842,200
2. A Bar Song (Tipsy) - Shaboozey 804,700
3. Beautiful Things - Benson Boone 765,200
4. I Had Some Help - Post Malone ft. Morgan Wallen 743,500
5. Not Like Us - Kendrick Lamar 674,000
6. Espresso - Sabrina Carpenter 641,000
7. Million Dollar Baby - Tommy Richman 627,500
8. Too Sweet - Hozier 613,600
9. Lovin On Me* - Jack Harlow 545,900
10. Like That - Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar 489,800
11. I Remember Everything* - Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves 469,000
12. Stick Season - Noah Kahan 452,000
13. BIRDS OF A FEATHER - Billie Eilish 429,400
14. Please Please Please - Sabrina Carpenter 424,100
15. Good Luck, Babe! - Chappell Roan 418,100
16. Saturn - SZA 411,200
17. Greedy* - Tate McRae 361,000
18. Fortnight - Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone 351,400
19. We Can’t Be Friends - Ariana Grande 319,400
20. Austin - Dasha 318,200
21. Feather - Sabrina Carpenter 316,900
22. Agora Hills* - Doja Cat 316,600
23. Cruel Summer* - Taylor Swift 314,000
24. Pink Skies - Zach Bryan 295,300
25. Cowgirls - Morgan Wallen ft. ERNEST 295,200
26. Texas Hold ‘Em - Beyonce 285,500
27. Miles On It - Marshmello & Kane Brown 261,700
28. I Can Do it With a Broken Heart - Taylor Swift 258,800
29. Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma - Luke Combs 248,800
30. Carnival - Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign ft. Rich the Kid & Playboi Carti 242,800
31. Houdini - Eminem 238,800
32. Wanna Be - GloRilla & Megan Thee Stallion 236,100
33. Snooze* - SZA 227,900
34. Slow it Down - Benson Boone 227,700
35. Redrum - 21 Savage 225,900
36. Water* - Tyla 222,600
37. Fast Car* - Luke Combs 216,200
38. Yeah Glo! - GloRilla 210,200
39. End of Beginning - Djo 203,100
40. LUNCH - Billie Eilish 199,800
41. Type Shit - Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott & Playboi Carti 195,700
42. Lies Lies Lies - Morgan Wallen 195,500
43. Gata Only - FloyyMenor & Cris Mj 195,400
44. Hot to Go! - Chappell Roan 193,600
45. Paint the Town Red* - Doja Cat 193,400
46. Never Lose Me - Flo Milli 192,700
47. Wild Ones - Jessie Murph ft. Jelly Roll 192,400
48. Get it Sexyy - Sexyy Red 189,500
49. Made For Me - Muni Long 188,000
50. Whatever She Wants - Bryson Tiller 183,000
51. Die With a Smile - Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga 176,600
52. I Like the Way You Kiss Me - Artemas 174,700
53. Euphoria - Kendrick Lamar 168,500
54. Last Night* - Morgan Wallen 165,700
55. Stargazing - Myles Smith 162,400
56. I Am Not Okay - Jelly Roll 161,100
57. Thinkin Bout Me* - Morgan Wallen 158,700
58. Is It Over Now? - Taylor Swift 157,900
59. Houdini - Dua Lipa 157,700
60. La Diabla - Xavi 156,900
61. Act II: Date @ 8 - 4batz ft. Drake 155,100
62. Pour Me a Drink - Post Malone ft. Blake Shelton 159,300
63. High Road - Koe Wetzel ft. Jessie Murph 153,000
64. Taste - Sabrina Carpenter 150,100
65. Where it Ends - Bailey Zimmerman 149,900
66. WILDFLOWER - Billie Eilish 149,100
67. Yes, And? - Ariana Grande 147,300
68. Wind Up Missin You - Tucker Wetmore 144,700
69. Bulletproof - Nate Smith 143,200
70. FE!N - Travis Scott ft. Playboi Carti 141,600
71. Down Bad - Taylor Swift 140,300
72. Where the Wild Things Are - Luke Combs 139,400
73. Everybody - Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert 139,200
74. CHIHIRO - Billie Eilish 139,000
75. One of Wun - Gunna 135,700
76. 28 - Zach Bryan 135,500
77. Pink Pony Club - Chappell Roan 129,800
78. Kehlani - Jordan Adetunji 129,600
79. Dirt Cheap - Cody Johnson 129,400
80. TGIF - GloRilla 128,500
81. Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido - KAROL G 127,800
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - projected cutoff - - - - - - - - - - - -  -
82. FTCU - Nicki Minaj 127,700
83. The Door - Teddy Swims 127,400
84. Scared to Start - Michael Macargi 126,800
85. Whiskey Whiskey - Moneybagg Yo ft. Morgan Wallen 126,200
86. Band4Band - Central Cee ft. Lil Baby 124,700
87. The Boy is Mine - Ariana Grande 123,200
88. Red Wine Supernova - Chappell Roan 122,600
89. Get in With Me - BossMan Dlow 120,000
90. Pretty Little Poison - Warren Zeiders 119,400
91. Man Made a Bar - Morgan Wallen ft. Eric Church 118,900

Others
92. I Think I'm in Love With You - Chris Stapleton 118,700
93. You Look Like You Love Me - Ella Langley ft. Riley Green 118,300
94. Who - Jimin 117,800
98. 360 - Charli xcx 110,800
Belong Together - Mark Amber 104,200
Mamushi - 102,100
Guy For That - Post Malone ft. Luke Combs 92,600
Nights Like This - The Kid LAROI 91,100
Bed Chem - Sabrina Carpenter 86,600
Beautiful as You - Thomas Rhett 84,200
Big Dawgs - Hanumankind & Kalmi 83,200
Chevrolet - Dustin Lynch ft. Jelly Roll 82,800
Guess - Charli xcx ft. Billie Eilish 78,600
Casual - Chappell Roan 78,300
Help Me - Real Boston Richey 65,000
Apple - Charli xcx 63,700
La Patrulla - Peso Pluma & Neton Vega 63,100
Lonely Road - mgk & Jelly Roll 61,700
Good Graces - Sabrina Carpenter 60,800

Watch list:
I Love You, I'm Sorry - Gracie Abrams 56,600
Juno - Sabrina Carpenter 49,800
Sailor Song - Gigi Perez 49,100
Dancing in the Flames - The Weeknd 37,600
Timeless - The Weeknd & Playboi Carti 37,500
It's Ok I'm Ok - Tate McRae 36,900
Diet Pepsi - Addison Rae 22,500

[mikerivera]

Songs I expect to make the J-D list that will likely miss the official YE
-Pink Pony Club
-28
-The Door
-TGIF
-Kehlani
-Who
-Si Antes te Hubiera Conocida
-Whiskey Whiskey
-You Look Like You Love Me
-Bed Chem

The following will be on the outskirts but will have a chance
-Timeless
-Juno
-Good Graces
-I Love You, I'm Sorry
-Mamushi
-Belong Together
-Big Dawgs
-Sailor Song

I'm expecting these to miss, albeit some by close margins
-Red Wine Supernova
-Lonely Road
-360
-I Think I'm in Love With You
-Dancing in the Flames
-It's Ok I'm Ok

[puwrpler04]

Anyone have the link to the 2025 billboard year end prediction thread?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^It hasn't been created.

[plankton5165]

I was prepared to be wowed by songs making the year-end despite really low peaks, and what happens? They reach new peaks.

[plankton5165]

Also, I put songs in four categories based on their likeliness of showing up in the Billboard Year-End.

Songs that were just about certain, likely, tossup, or not very likely.

Chihiro wasn't in either of them.

I think at the time I made the predictions, Chihiro had already tumbled so low from its #12 peak after such a short amount of time. I didn't anticipate that it would get to 20.

Even if Hiss did, I wouldn't consider hit a high-quality #1 hit. A high-quality #1 hit would have to end up in the Billboard decade-end.

[feldspar905]

CARNIVAL being this high on the year end list predictions is still kinda odd to me even when i know how big it was.It only spent 19 weeks on the hot 100 ,meaning that by July it was already out of the charts,compared to the rest of the top 40 that's not a lot.It's like one of those songs that comes out at the end of the year but manages to sneak in but in reverse.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Oct 17, 2024 19:12:47 GMT -5 plankton5165 said:

Also, I put songs in four categories based on their likeliness of showing up in the Billboard Year-End.

Songs that were just about certain, likely, tossup, or not very likely.

Chihiro wasn't in either of them.

I think at the time I made the predictions, Chihiro had already tumbled so low from its #12 peak after such a short amount of time. I didn't anticipate that it would get to 20.

Even if Hiss did, I wouldn't consider hit a high-quality #1 hit. A high-quality #1 hit would have to end up in the Billboard decade-end.

In Chihiro's case, getting to 20 weeks charted helps a lot. It doesn't necessarily guarantee making the YE Hot 100, though.