2024 Billboard Hot 100 Year End Predictions (Year 12)

[Groovy]

2025 thread here here

[lukulele]

Does anyone know when the YE is dropping

[chartwatcher04]

Oct 22, 2024 15:14:04 GMT -5 lukulele said:

Does anyone know when the YE is dropping

Since the YE tracking ended around this time last year, I imagine somewhere close to Thanksgiving. So, likely a couple weeks from now.

[Groovy]

I can’t wait to do the mid 2020s polls when the 2024 YE comes out.

[jebsib]

Any idea who the Hot 100 Artist of 2024 will be?

[southerninternal999]

Nov 9, 2024 19:55:39 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Any idea who the Hot 100 Artist of 2024 will be?

If I had to make a guess, it would most likely be Sabrina, but I also wouldn't rule out Taylor

[onerandomguy]

Probably Taylor Swift again. Her album game is unmatched. Even if her singles aren’t quite as strong, I think she has a good chance.

This will make her the first artist to ever be artist of the year for four times.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Hoping that the Year-End charts come out by next week.

[Cerebro]

Nov 16, 2024 21:48:28 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Hoping that the Year-End charts come out by next week.

That's what I'm thinking. Last year, Billboard released their year-end charts a few days after the Billboard Music Awards. The 2024 BMAs are tonight (11/17).

[gs]

BBMAs didn't happen. Either the date was fake or it's cancelled. The year-end chart might finish at a "normal" date this year, extending it to be 55+ weeks

[southerninternal999]

Nov 18, 2024 8:28:44 GMT -5 gs said:

BBMAs didn't happen. Either the date was fake or it's cancelled. The year-end chart might finish at a "normal" date this year, extending it to be 55+ weeks

I'm willing to bet that it was cancelled this year. If there was one, they would have announced a date months ago. Not to mention that I haven't seen much information about it outside of a supposed Shaboozey performance. For all we know, it'll be happening next year.

[mikerivera]

Alright, here's my check in with 5 weeks left. The fact that Billboard hasn't posted the year end yet (or announced the BBMA's yet) means they might push back the official year end cutoff date. That will not affect this chart of course, which is now entering crunch time. This is the final week before Christmas songs start flooding the chart again, and we've already seen many contenders fall (and a few late challengers rise). Here are the numbers

1. Lose Control - Teddy Swims 930,800
2. A Bar Song (Tipsy) - Shaboozey 922,700
3. Beautiful Things - Benson Boone 845,500
4. I Had Some Help - Post Malone ft. Morgan Wallen 834,500
5. Not Like Us - Kendrick Lamar 741,800
6. Espresso - Sabrina Carpenter 737,200
7. Too Sweet - Hozier 685,500
8. Million Dollar Baby - Tommy Richman 681,000
9. Lovin On Me* - Jack Harlow 545,900
10. BIRDS OF A FEATHER - Billie Eilish 534,300
11. Like That - Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar 502,900
12. Good Luck, Babe! - Chappell Roan 494,900
13. Please Please Please - Sabrina Carpenter 494,100
14. I Remember Everything* - Zach Bryan ft. Kacey Musgraves 469,000
15. Stick Season - Noah Kahan 452,000
16. Saturn - SZA 426,000
17. Austin - Dasha 361,800
18. Greedy* - Tate McRae 361,000
19. Fortnight - Taylor Swift ft. Post Malone 351,400
20. Cowgirls - Morgan Wallen ft. ERNEST 341,700
21. Pink Skies - Zach Bryan 340,500
22. We Can’t Be Friends - Ariana Grande 319,400
23. Feather - Sabrina Carpenter 316,900
24. Agora Hills* - Doja Cat 316,600
25. Cruel Summer* - Taylor Swift 314,000
26. Miles On It - Marshmello & Kane Brown 312,800
27. I Can Do it With a Broken Heart - Taylor Swift 297,500
28. Texas Hold ‘Em - Beyonce 285,500
29. Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma - Luke Combs 285,300
30. Die With a Smile - Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga 280,900
31. Lies Lies Lies - Morgan Wallen 253,700
32. Hot to Go! - Chappell Roan 251,500
33. Houdini - Eminem 243,600
34. Carnival - Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign ft. Rich the Kid & Playboi Carti 242,800
35. Wanna Be - GloRilla & Megan Thee Stallion 236,100
36. Taste - Sabrina Carpenter 234,500
37. Snooze* - SZA 227,900
38. Slow it Down - Benson Boone 227,700
39. Redrum - 21 Savage 225,900
40. I Am Not Okay - Jelly Roll 223,800
41. Water* - Tyla 222,600
42. Fast Car* - Luke Combs 216,200
43. Stargazing - Myles Smith 212,000
44. Yeah Glo! - GloRilla 210,200
45. End of Beginning - Djo 203,100
46. LUNCH - Billie Eilish 199,800
47. WILDFLOWER - Billie Eilish 195,800
48. Type Shit - Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott & Playboi Carti 195,700
49. Gata Only - FloyyMenor & Cris Mj 195,400
50. Paint the Town Red* - Doja Cat 193,400
51. Never Lose Me - Flo Milli 192,700
52. Wild Ones - Jessie Murph ft. Jelly Roll 192,400
53. High Road - Koe Wetzel ft. Jessie Murph 189,900
54. Get it Sexyy - Sexyy Red 189,500
55. Made For Me - Muni Long 188,000
56. Pour Me a Drink - Post Malone ft. Blake Shelton 187,100
57. Whatever She Wants - Bryson Tiller 183,000
58. Wind Up Missin You - Tucker Wetmore 178,800
59. TGIF - GloRilla 175,000
60. I Like the Way You Kiss Me - Artemas 174,700
61. The Door - Teddy Swims 171,600
62. Euphoria - Kendrick Lamar 168,500
63. Kehlani - Jordan Adetunji 166,300
64. Last Night* - Morgan Wallen 165,700
65. Pink Pony Club - Chappell Roan 164,400
66. 28 - Zach Bryan 161,400
67. You Look Like You Love Me - Ella Langley ft. Riley Green 160,300
68. Thinkin Bout Me* - Morgan Wallen 158,700
69. Is It Over Now? - Taylor Swift 157,900
70. Houdini - Dua Lipa 157,700
71. La Diabla - Xavi 156,900
72. Who - Jimin 156,800
73. Act II: Date @ 8 - 4batz ft. Drake 155,100
74. Si Antes Te Hubiera Conocido - KAROL G 152,700
75. Where it Ends - Bailey Zimmerman 149,900
76. Yes, And? - Ariana Grande 147,300
77. Bulletproof - Nate Smith 143,200
78. I Think I’m in Love With You - Chris Stapleton 141,700
79. FE!N - Travis Scott ft. Playboi Carti 141,600
80. Whiskey Whiskey - Moneybagg Yo ft. Morgan Wallen 140,300
81. Down Bad - Taylor Swift 140,300
82. Where the Wild Things Are - Luke Combs 139,400
83. Everybody - Nicki Minaj ft. Lil Uzi Vert 139,200
84. CHIHIRO - Billie Eilish 139,000
85. One of Wun - Gunna 135,700
86. Bed Chem - Sabrina Carpenter 133,000
87. Dirt Cheap - Cody Johnson 129,400
88. Mamushi - Megan Thee Stallion ft. Yuki Chiba 127,800
89. FTCU - Nicki Minaj 127,700
90. Red Wine Supernova - Chappell Roan 127,200
- - - - - - - - - - - - - projected cutoff - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - -
91. Scared to Start - Michael Macargi 126,800
92. Band4Band - Central Cee ft. Lil Baby 124,700
93. The Boy is Mine - Ariana Grande 123,200
94. 360 - Charli xcx 122,600
95. Get in With Me - BossMan Dlow 120,000
96. Pretty Little Poison - Warren Zeiders 119,400
97. Man Made a Bar - Morgan Wallen ft. Eric Church 118,900
98. Guy For That - Post Malone ft. Luke Combs 116,600
99. What Was I Made For?* - Billie Eilish 116,200
100. 23 - Chayce Beckham 112,800

Have a strong shot
I Love You, I'm Sorry - Grace Abrams 110,300
Timeless - The Weeknd & Playboi Carti 102,600
Sailor Song - Gigi Perez 97,500
Love Somebody - Morgan Wallen 75,200

Will miss/came out too late
La Patrulla - Peso Pluma 90,000
Apple - Charli xcx 87,400
Good Graces - Sabrina Carpenter 84,300
Lonely Road - mgk & Jelly Roll 80,200
Juno - Sabrina Carpenter 78,200
Dancing in the Flames - The Weeknd 69,500
It's Ok I'm Ok - Tate McRae 69,400
Close to You - Gracie Abrams 63,500
Whatchu Kno Bout Me - GloRilla & Sexyy Redd 47,000
Tu Boda - Oscar Maydon & Fuerza Regida 43,800
St. Chroma - Tyler, The Creator ft. Daniel Caesar 42,500

Current standings for Christmas songs
Last Christmas - Wham! 43,900
Rockin Around the Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee 42,500
All I Want for Christmas is You - Mariah Carey 41,500
Jingle Bell Rock - Bobby Helms 37,000
A Holly Jolly Christmas - Burl Ives 31,500
It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year - Andy Williams 25,300

Last call
Help Me - Real Boston Richey 96,900
APT. - ROSE & Bruno Mars 59,700
That's So True - Gracie Abrams 50,400
Sticky - Tyler, The Creator ft. GloRilla, Sexyy Redd & Lil Wayne 42,300

[Cerebro]

Happened across this article on Billboard:
www.billboard.com/photos/billboard-no-1s-party-red-carpet-photos-1235834340/

From the article...

The second annual Billboard No. 1s Party kicked off the upcoming 2024 Billboard Music Awards on Tuesday night (Nov. 19)...

...and...

Information about the 2024 Billboard Music Awards will be announced in the coming weeks.

So, since the BMAs haven't happened yet, this would strongly imply, to me, that the tracking period for Billboard's 2024 chart year has changed. Again. We'll see what happens.

[rowletpulse]

So say that Billboard changed its tracking period to 55 or 56 weeks, which songs would make it and which songs from the 52 week predictions would miss?

Chihiro is unfortunately gone, and so is Down Bad and maybe The Painter. Not sure about FE!N, but if it misses, that sucks, because that song felt very important this year even though I find it decent at best.

I see Pink Pony Club (YES!!!), 28, and Kehlani making it now, but what other songs have a chance to make it???

Can A Bar Song sneak the #1 spot? To me, its 50/50, but lets see.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Nov 21, 2024 11:46:44 GMT -5 rowletpulse said:

So say that Billboard changed its tracking period to 55 or 56 weeks, which songs would make it and which songs from the 52 week predictions would miss?

Chihiro is unfortunately gone, and so is Down Bad and maybe The Painter. Not sure about FE!N, but if it misses, that sucks, because that song felt very important this year even though I find it decent at best.

I see Pink Pony Club (YES!!!), 28, and Kehlani making it now, but what other songs have a chance to make it???

Can A Bar Song sneak the #1 spot? To me, its 50/50, but lets see.

Definitely a good chance it would be 55, adding the three weeks that missed out on last year's Year-End tracking period.

[southerninternal999]

Nov 21, 2024 19:28:32 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Nov 21, 2024 11:46:44 GMT -5 rowletpulse said:

So say that Billboard changed its tracking period to 55 or 56 weeks, which songs would make it and which songs from the 52 week predictions would miss?

Chihiro is unfortunately gone, and so is Down Bad and maybe The Painter. Not sure about FE!N, but if it misses, that sucks, because that song felt very important this year even though I find it decent at best.

I see Pink Pony Club (YES!!!), 28, and Kehlani making it now, but what other songs have a chance to make it???

Can A Bar Song sneak the #1 spot? To me, its 50/50, but lets see.

Definitely a good chance it would be 55, adding the three weeks that missed out on last year's Year-End tracking period.

If this is the reason we haven't gotten the year end yet, then I wouldn't be against it actually. As like you said, they missed three weeks last year. But then, why would they end that year early? You know, besides the BBMAS

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

I just checked and the Chart Beat article that talked 2023 Hot 100 year-end came out on Tuesday 11/21/2023, which, if followed this year would have been the Tuesday that just passed. That said, given that Billboard has never been big on consistency, it could end up being next Tuesday assuming the year-end kept the "2024 chart year" to 52 weeks. I would think if we don't see the article being published next week, that will definitely confirm that the "2024 chart year" was something greater than 52 week, with the 55 weeks being probable, since it would mean that the corresponding article would be published early to mid December. There's also the possibility they end up making the "2024 chart year" 53 weeks since they do need to do once in a while to prevent it from including only charts that end before November of the corresponding year.

[puwrpler04]

Nov 21, 2024 11:46:44 GMT -5 rowletpulse said:

So say that Billboard changed its tracking period to 55 or 56 weeks, which songs would make it and which songs from the 52 week predictions would miss?

Chihiro is unfortunately gone, and so is Down Bad and maybe The Painter. Not sure about FE!N, but if it misses, that sucks, because that song felt very important this year even though I find it decent at best.

I see Pink Pony Club (YES!!!), 28, and Kehlani making it now, but what other songs have a chance to make it???

Can A Bar Song sneak the #1 spot? To me, its 50/50, but lets see.

The door also has a good chance of sneaking in. You look Like You Love me Is borderline

[CoJoFan]

Found this online this morning


Billboard's year-end charts are cumulative rankings of the most popular songs and albums from the United States in a given year. The tracking period for Billboard's 2024 year-end charts is October 28, 2023 to September 28, 2024

[southerninternal999]

Good GOD that’s even worse than last year! Hoping that’s not true

[mikerivera]

Nov 22, 2024 10:57:04 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

Found this online this morning


Billboard's year-end charts are cumulative rankings of the most popular songs and albums from the United States in a given year. The tracking period for Billboard's 2024 year-end charts is October 28, 2023 to September 28, 2024

Source? I know BB is stupid, but even for them, consistently shortening the year to 49 weeks seems like a stretch

[CoJoFan]

Nov 22, 2024 13:50:13 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 22, 2024 10:57:04 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

Found this online this morning


Billboard's year-end charts are cumulative rankings of the most popular songs and albums from the United States in a given year. The tracking period for Billboard's 2024 year-end charts is October 28, 2023 to September 28, 2024

Source? I know BB is stupid, but even for them, consistently shortening the year to 49 weeks seems like a stretch

Google search Billboard year end 2024 and it’s the first thing that pops up. It did anyways when I searched but now it’s not there. I copied and pasted exactly what was there too. Found this on X though.

[Lost In Musical Reverie]

Nov 22, 2024 10:05:21 GMT -5 puwrpler04 said:

Nov 21, 2024 11:46:44 GMT -5 rowletpulse said:

So say that Billboard changed its tracking period to 55 or 56 weeks, which songs would make it and which songs from the 52 week predictions would miss?

Chihiro is unfortunately gone, and so is Down Bad and maybe The Painter. Not sure about FE!N, but if it misses, that sucks, because that song felt very important this year even though I find it decent at best.

I see Pink Pony Club (YES!!!), 28, and Kehlani making it now, but what other songs have a chance to make it???

Can A Bar Song sneak the #1 spot? To me, its 50/50, but lets see.

The door also has a good chance of sneaking in. You look Like You Love me Is borderline

As much as I really enjoy "Down Bad" and "CHIHIRO", I definitely wouldn't mind seeing them ultimately missing so "Pink Pony Club" and "The Door" could make it instead. Even better if "you look like you love me" manages to sneak in as well. 💕

Just the prospect of Billboard realizing they messed up and attempting to restore their tracking year would already be a victory. What they did last year was beyond baffling.

[southerninternal999]

Nov 22, 2024 14:07:34 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

Nov 22, 2024 13:50:13 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Source? I know BB is stupid, but even for them, consistently shortening the year to 49 weeks seems like a stretch

Google search Billboard year end 2024 and it’s the first thing that pops up. It did anyways when I searched but now it’s not there. I copied and pasted exactly what was there too. Found this on X though.

Yeah, I don't trust that source. I've never even heard of it until today. But I did see a claim from there that starting next year, the year ends will run from October to September. IDK man, I'm so done with this bullshit. They're completely ruining year end projections for me.

[CoJoFan]

Nov 22, 2024 15:16:25 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

Nov 22, 2024 14:07:34 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

Google search Billboard year end 2024 and it’s the first thing that pops up. It did anyways when I searched but now it’s not there. I copied and pasted exactly what was there too. Found this on X though.

Yeah, I don't trust that source. I've never even heard of it until today. But I did see a claim from there that starting next year, the year ends will run from October to September. IDK man, I'm so done with this bullshit. They're completely ruining year end projections for me.

We could possibly find out tonight. If you follow the country music thread the November 30 Country Airplay chart will release about any time and they should be posting the year end top 100 for that chart in the update newsletter anytime.

[southerninternal999]

Nov 22, 2024 15:39:44 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

Nov 22, 2024 15:16:25 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

Yeah, I don't trust that source. I've never even heard of it until today. But I did see a claim from there that starting next year, the year ends will run from October to September. IDK man, I'm so done with this bullshit. They're completely ruining year end projections for me.

We could possibly find out tonight. If you follow the country music thread the November 30 Country Airplay chart will release about any time and they should be posting the year end top 100 for that chart in the update newsletter anytime.

1. I'm sure we'll find out in the coming days, I'm just hoping that it's not another dumb short year.

2. I do not follow country music. It's never really been my cup of tea. I'm more of a pop/hip-hop kinda guy.

[jdanton2]

Nov 22, 2024 15:16:25 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

Nov 22, 2024 14:07:34 GMT -5 CoJoFan said:

Google search Billboard year end 2024 and it’s the first thing that pops up. It did anyways when I searched but now it’s not there. I copied and pasted exactly what was there too. Found this on X though.

Yeah, I don't trust that source. I've never even heard of it until today. But I did see a claim from there that starting next year, the year ends will run from October to September. IDK man, I'm so done with this bullshit. They're completely ruining year end projections for me.

i thought it was confirmed before it ended in October.maybe that was just speculation.

[southerninternal999]

Nov 22, 2024 18:19:26 GMT -5 jdanton2 said:

Nov 22, 2024 15:16:25 GMT -5 southerninternal999 said:

Yeah, I don't trust that source. I've never even heard of it until today. But I did see a claim from there that starting next year, the year ends will run from October to September. IDK man, I'm so done with this bullshit. They're completely ruining year end projections for me.

i thought it was confirmed before it ended in October.maybe that was just speculation.

Honestly, I don't know at this point. It's all been a blur

[Abbaschand]

Expect to see the tracking period soon

[Abbaschand]

"The eligibility dates for this year’s awards are aligned with Billboard’s Year-End Charts tracking period, which measures music consumption from the charts dated Oct. 28, 2023 through Oct. 19, 2024."

www.billboard.com/music/awards/2024-billboard-music-awards-finalists-full-list-1235837820/

NO CHANGES, STILL 52 WEEKS