Billboard Hot 100: 05/11/2024

[velaxti]

Apr 28, 2024 0:23:55 GMT -5 Choco said:

Can we also ban "Spotify autoplay payola" comments? They're boring and 99% of the time completely false. I can't escape Expresso on Twitter, TikTok and even Instagram. People genuinely enjoy it... so it's doing well.

How can we not talk about it? It's probably THE biggest thing to increase streams right now (going viral on TikTok can get a higher boost in streams, but labels can't really control that). It got Hozier, and now Sabrina, hundreds of thousands of extra streams each day. It absolutely has to be talked about in the chart discussion thread. It seems that maybe it has a bigger effect than even the biggest Spotify playlists.

Too Sweet is now "only" predicted to be #7 on the Hot 100 and "only" has 2.4 million streams a day once the autoplay deal finished. Sabrina will see a drop of a few hundreds thousand streams when her deal finishes too (they seem to last 1-2 weeks?). And whatever song gets it next will see a big boost for 1-2 weeks. So we have to talk about it.

Apr 28, 2024 11:12:32 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Apr 28, 2024 9:34:18 GMT -5 sedrickwilhelm said:

No. Now you are just suppressing the truth.

it’s giving we never went to the moon conspiracies. Playlisting and Auto play does play A PART but it’s clear that it can’t and hasn’t solo carried a song to hit status. People have too also like the song believe it or not

Nobody is saying that. Too Sweet is still doing really well now that the autoplay deal has finished. People are just saying it gives a big boost to songs. If you don't know about the autoplay deal you'd think those songs were going to be 10+ week #1s the way they gained on streaming initially, that's why it's good to be aware of it as chart watchers. Nobody is saying that Espresso would be like #77 on the Hot 100 if it weren't for autoplay, we know it can't make THAT big of a difference!

[fridayteenage]

Apr 28, 2024 8:26:52 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

so cowboy carter's biggest impact on the charts will be shaboozey blowing up?

looks like it's already outpeaked on US Spotify:
tipsy 2,417,781
texas hold em 2,391,687

that was unexpected.

[jenglisbe]

"Khia" as a term has been around for a minute, so why tf are people tripping? Do you not remember the meme from when a girl cried over meeting Khia?

[sedrickwilhelm]

Apr 28, 2024 11:12:32 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Apr 28, 2024 9:34:18 GMT -5 sedrickwilhelm said:

No. Now you are just suppressing the truth.

it’s giving we never went to the moon conspiracies. Playlisting and Auto play does play A PART but it’s clear that it can’t and hasn’t solo carried a song to hit status. People have too also like the song believe it or not

Saying that autoplay can be used in a powerful way through payment to gain a ton of streams is the same as saying we faked the moon landing? People take the word "conspiracy" way too far.

[sedrickwilhelm]

Apr 28, 2024 9:46:32 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Like That is #1 on AM, Million Dollar Baby #3

Like That is back at #1? I think there is sincerely no doubt that song became a true honest to goodness hit beyond just getting attention for being a diss. Further evidence being "Push Ups."

[korbel16]

why is espresso THAT catchy? I see many.. many weeks atop

[fridayteenage]

I didn't hear khia as a slang until this spring.

[wavey.]

Apr 28, 2024 12:11:35 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

"Khia" as a term has been around for a minute, so why tf are people tripping? Do you not remember the meme from when a girl cried over meeting Khia?

This one is a different meaning.

[Choco]

Is it autoplay or is the algorithm suggesting you songs that are doing well? ♡

If the algorithm wants you to stay tuned it might as well play you whatever is near the top of the charts bc odds are a majority of the audience will like it.

[Elusive Chanteuse]

If it’s “auto play payola” then explain why Espresso is also rising on Apple Music…the math isn’t mathing. The naysayers need to start accepting that it is going viral and people are simply excited about the song.

[suburbandreams]

Apr 28, 2024 17:52:41 GMT -5 Choco said:

Is it autoplay or is the algorithm suggesting you songs that are doing well? ♡

If the algorithm wants you to stay tuned it might as well play you whatever is near the top of the charts bc odds are a majority of the audience will like it.

Autoplay is Spotify's literal name for the songs they play after an album/playlist ended.

Back in January 2023, it got noticed that around the 8th day for some new releases, they would be a sudden spike in spotify streams which wasn't replicated in apple music . that spike would wear after a few weeks. and then chart watchers tested that there would only be a few songs that would be autoplayed and those would be the songs with suspicious boosts. if it was just the algorthmin, it would likely favor the modern pop classics like  blinding lights instead of these new songs.

However, this pattern wasn't seen for all new releases but mostly from acts that were getting heavily promoted by their labels.

Too Sweet literally just benefited for this classical autoplay. Getting a boost in its second week that wasn't seen on Apple Music and then the boost wearing off

It doesn't make a flop a hit but does give an nice big boost to well performing songs.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 04/27/24

Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department [16/16]
1(=) Fortnight 3,335,458 (-739,942) (-18%)
3(=) I Can Do It With A Broken Heart 2,592,643 (-356,771) (-12%)
5(-1) Down Bad 2,233,013 (-540,116) (-19%)
7(=) So Long, London 1,737,970 (-432,558) (-20%)
9(-1) Who's Afraid of Little Old Me? 1,703,223 (-401,067) (-19%)
10(-1) My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys 1,682,331 (-340,196) (-17%)
11(=) Florida!!!! 1,636,972 (-365,904) (-18%)
12(-2) But Daddy I Love Him 1,634,893 (-383,765) (-19%)
14(-2) Guilty as Sin? 1,599,862 (-354,236)
15(-2) The Tortured Poets Department 1,562,948 (-367,344)
18(-2) The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived 1,269,487 (-338,928)
21(-3) The Alchemy 1,193,611 (-309,963)
22(-3) Fresh Out the Slammer 1,190,331 (-287,090)
23(-3) loml 1,153,365 (-291,116)
27(-5) I Can Fix Him (No Really I Can) 1,064,231 (-269,952)
39(-11) Clara Bow 964,626 (-258,621)
Total Ninth Day Streams: 26,554,964 (-18.52%)

Taylor Swift - THE ANTHOLOGY [15/15]
32(-8) imgonnagetyouback 1,036,341 (-267,165) (-20%)
35(-9) So High School 1,029,242 (-254,594) (-20%)
38(-11) The Black Dog 990,065 (-270,873) (-21%)
42(-3) The Prophecy 851,593 (-235,294)
46(-4) thanK you aIMee 814,317 (-208,234)
49(-6) The Albatross 793,724 (-227,733)
50(-6) How Did It End? 786,129 (-218,360)
53(-8) I Hate It Here 753,592 (-223,483)
56(-10) Chloe or Sam or Sophia or Marcus 726,344 (-210,768)
57(-9) I Look In People's Windows 715,483 (-192,409)
65(-13) The Bolter 667,057 (-192,960)
67(-13) Peter 664,999 (-182,697)
74(-16) Cassandra 615,804 (-180,220)
93(-22) The Manuscript 518,193 (-162,393)
104(-26) Robin 487,403 (-151,038)
Total Ninth Day Streams: 11,450,286 (-21.73%)

Overall Ninth Day Streams: 38,005,250 (-19.52%)

---

TOP 10 WITHOUT TTPD
2(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 3,020,603 (-235,818)
4(+1) Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 2,411,182 (-6,599) *NEW PEAK*
6(=) Hozier - Too Sweet 2,207,012 (-159,635)
8(+6) Future, Metro Boomin, Kendrick Lamar - Like That 1,716,655 (-158,223)
13(+2) Artemas - i like the way you kiss me 1,622,078 (-128,336)
16(+1) Drake - Push Ups 1,394,947 (-202,354) (-13%)
17(+4) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 1,272,474 (-86,616)
19(+6) Chapell Roan - Good Luck, Babe! 1,210,536 (-89,592)
20(+3) SZA - Saturn 1,193,972 (-116,301)
24(+6) Kanye West, Ty Dolla $ign - CARNIVAL 1,103,504 (-59,813)

Other:
25(+12) Zach Bryan, Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything 1,087,329 (-35,399)
26(+9) Lay Bankz - Tell Ur Girlfriend 1,075,953 (-49,395)
28(+3) Tommy Richman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY 1,056,701 (-105,245) *NEW PEAK*
29(=) FloyyMenor, Cris Mj - Gata Only 1,050,182 (-121,088)
30(+3) Ariana Grande - we can't be friends (wait for your love) 1,045,975 (-89,166)
31(+1) Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - Type Shit 1,042,879 (-111,545)
33(+5) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 1,034,906 (-58,191)
34(+6) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 1,032,107 (-48,979)
36(-2) Djo - End of Beginning 1,023,121 (-109,326)
37(+4) Bryson Tiller - Whatever She Wants 1,001,361 (-62,932)
40(+7) Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - FE!N 875,495 (-44,311)
41(+10) Sexyy Red - Get It Sexy 852,767 (-14,929)
43(+12) GloRilla, Megan Thee Stallion - Wanna Be 840,064 (+3,719)
44(+5) Tate McRae - greedy 831,602 (-43,630)
45(+8) Tommy Richman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY (VHS) 823,724 (-25,478) *NEW PEAK*
47(+3) 21 Savage - redrum 814,284 (-58,486)
48(+8) Dasha - Austin 797,349 (-14,536)
52(+8) Michael Marcagi - Scared to Start 774,464 (+5,702)
55(+9) Luke Combs - Where the Wild Things Are 735,690 (+2,932)
58(-22) Myke Towers, Bad Bunny - ADIVINO 709,261 (-414,503) (-37%)
59(-2) Benson Boone - Slow It Down 709,168 (-87,860)
60(+12) Beyoncé - TEXAS HOLD EM 702,511 (+26,343)
61(+14) GloRilla - Yeah Glo! 699,134 (+35,331)
62(-1) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 685,374 (-70,051)
63(+5) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 683,586 (-16,777)
64(+3) Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me 680,409 (-26,433)
66(+3) BigXthaPlug - Mmhmm 666,927 (-17,327)
68(-5) Rich Amiri - ONE CALL 659,776 (-74,641)
69(-3) d4vd - Feel It 655,962 (-64,184)
72(+1) Mark Ambor - Belong Together 623,958 (-49,570)
76(+1) Tucker Wetmore - Wind Up Missin' You 590,590 (-55,743)
77(+2) Chappell Roan - Red Wine Supernova 584,256 (-43,528)
79(+5) Fuerza Regida - TÚ NAME 562,977 (-38,032)
81(+8) Jessie Murph, Jelly Roll - Wild Ones 556,900 (-16,975)
82(-2) Ritchy Mitch & The Coal Miners - Evergreen 556,166 (-62,016)
83(+5) Zach Bryan - Heading South 547,240 (-38,951)
84(+3) Flo Milli - Never Lose Me 546,908 (-42,249)
85(=) Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott - Cinderella 545,501 (-53,971)
86(+5) Xavi - La Diabla 543,284 (-17,341)
87(+3) A$AP Rocky - Sundress 535,530 (-28,607)
88(-6) The Weeknd, JENNIE, Lily-Rose Depp - One of the Girls 533,971 (-69,944)
92(+3) Artemas - if u think i'm pretty 522,658 (-27,857)
95(+13) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 514,867 (+10,707)
97(=) Xavi - Corazón de Piedra 505,366 (-27,038)
99(-6) Benson Boone - Cry 494,134 (-62,208)
100(-4) Don Toliver - Bandit 492,310 (-44,529)

102(-2) Olivia Rodrigo - obsessed 491,657 (-34,702)
106(-2) ILLIT - Magnetic 478,588 (-36,005)
107(=) Yeat - If We Being Rëal 476,878 (-29,015)
108(-6) BigXthaPlug - Back On My BS 474,838 (-45,909)
109(-11) Good Neighbors - Home 468,229 (-64,101)
111(-6) Dominic Fike - Babydoll 464,673 (-48,104)
118(-17) Rvssian, Rauw Alejandro, Ayra Starr - Santa 454,085 (-69,573) (+23%)
120(-11) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 450,644 (-492,29)
121(-7) Chappel Roan - HOT TO GO! 448,216 (-31,083)
125(-4) Bakar, Summer Walker - Hell N Back Remix 437,216 (-28,645)
134(-1) Yeat - Breathe 410,623 (-38,873)
135(-16) $uicideboy$ - Are You Going to See the Rose in the Vase, or the Dust on the Table 408,022 (-60,062) (-13%)
137(DEBUT) Daya - Hide Away 402,511
141(-14) TV Girl - Not Allowed 395,501 (-58,472)
144(+2) Natanael Cano, Oscar Maydon - Madonna 393,152 (-31,147)
148(+11) Peso Pluma, Tito Double P, Joel De La P - LA PEOPLE II 388,213 (-16,699)
150(+34) Luis R Conriquez, Neton Vega - Si No Quieres No 385,627 (+5,413) *NEW PEAK*
152(+13) Dua Lipa - Illusion 384,210 (-16,753)
154(-18) Ariana Grande - the boy is mine 381,772 (-57,436)
156(+15) The Red Clay Strays - Wondering Why 380,811 (-12,929)
161(-16) Future, Metro Boomin, The Weeknd - We Still Don't Trust You 376,210 (-49,517)
163(-43) $uicideboy$ - Us Vs. Them 375,421 (-90,748)
164(+15) Bryan Martin - We Ride 373,842 (-11,339)
180(+19) 4batz, Drake - act ii: date @ 8 Remix 360,916 (-9,868)
186(DEBUT) BossMan Dlow - Talk My Shit 355,788
188(+12) Jungle - Back On 74 354,190 (-15,149)
191(+1) Bailey Zimmerman - Where It Ends 351,184 (-23,119)
198(RE) Josh Meloy - Porch Light 347,666

Total Streams for Million Dollar Baby: 1,880,425 (would be #7 with combined streams)

US TOP 30! WITHOUT TTPD
#1. Espresso
#2. A Bar Song (Tipsy)
#3. Too Sweet
(#4. MILLION DOLLAR BABY)
#4. Like That
#5. i like the way you kiss me
#6. Push Ups
#7. Beautiful Things
#8. Good Luck, Babe!
#9. Saturn
#10. CARNIVAL

#11. I Remember Everything
#12. Tell Ur Girlfriend *NEW PEAK*
#13. MILLION DOLLAR BABY
#14. Gata Only
#15. we can't be friends (wait for your love)
#16. Type Shit
#17. Lose Control
#18. Stick Season
#19. End of Beginning
#20. Whatever She Wants

#21. FE!N
#22. Get It Sexyy
#23. Wanna Be
#24. greedy
#25. MILLION DOLLAR BABY (VHS) *NEW PEAK*
#26. redrum
#27. Austin
#28. Last Night
#29. Scared to Start
#30. Something in the Orange
#31. Where the Wild Things Are *NEW PEAK*

[stormlover74]

Apr 28, 2024 20:11:49 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

Apr 28, 2024 17:52:41 GMT -5 Choco said:

Is it autoplay or is the algorithm suggesting you songs that are doing well? ♡

If the algorithm wants you to stay tuned it might as well play you whatever is near the top of the charts bc odds are a majority of the audience will like it.

Autoplay is Spotify's literal name for the songs they play after an album/playlist ended.

Back in January 2023, it got noticed that around the 8th day for some new releases, they would be a sudden spike in spotify streams which wasn't replicated in apple music . that spike would wear after a few weeks. and then chart watchers tested that there would only be a few songs that would be autoplayed and those would be the songs with suspicious boosts. if it was just the algorthmin, it would likely favor the modern pop classics like  blinding lights instead of these new songs.

However, this pattern wasn't seen for all new releases but mostly from acts that were getting heavily promoted by their labels.

Too Sweet literally just benefited for this classical autoplay. Getting a boost in its second week that wasn't seen on Apple Music and then the boost wearing off

It doesn't make a flop a hit but does give an nice big boost to well performing songs.

Too sweet is sort of perplexing. It's a decent song but just doesn't feel like #1 material. So the fact it benefited makes sense. We'll see where it ultimately lands in airplay and if the song sticks around.

Espresso on the other hand just feels like a big hit to me

[sayhey]

Apr 27, 2024 19:18:11 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

Apr 27, 2024 16:33:39 GMT -5 sayhey said:

Can't stop laughing at all this khia lingo, is this actually used as a term on twitter or something to refer to up-and-coming and/or obscure artists? lol

Also, by autoplay do you mean placement on prominent Spotify playlists? Or the song popping up first when one chooses to listen to music on shuffle? Or does it refer to a song being placed first when one creates a song radio on Spotify? 

First part - yup, Khia means anything or anyone that makes you go “who?” Or “what?”

As for autoplay, it’s when the song you chose finishes up and then the very next song starts playing without your permission or input. You can try playing songs on Spotify by typing its name, (cus you can’t play from an album) skip to the last second and watch what comes up next. It 99% guaranteed it’s either the armeta song or the sabrinkhia song

Right, I have noticed that periodically certain songs tend to frequently play after I finish a song or an album. It was obvious that those songs were heavily promoted by the major labels but didn't know this was referred to as auto-play, thanks for the info!

suburbandreams interesting, so is there not a similar promotional practice employed by labels on Apple Music? Asking because I've never used that streaming service, only Spotify.

lurker2 yeah, songs that I play a lot tend to show up more in shuffle mode but you're right that certain songs will pop up whether you listen to them or not.

sedrickwilhelm agreed, and these passive listeners actually greatly contribute to a song's longevity and recognizability, as they do reflect the "general public" much more accurately than hardcore fanbases.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2024 » / « 04 » / « 29 »

1(=) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 80.27(+0.16)
2(=) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 71.41(+0.53) +
3(=) Doja Cat - Agora Hills 63.70(-0.84)
4(=) Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me 61.29(-0.79) -
5(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 52.46(+0.29) +
6(=) Tate McRae - greedy 49.83(-0.04)
7(+1) SZA - Saturn 47.64(+1.24)
8(-1) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 47.09(+0.49) -
9(=) Luke Combs - Fast Car 46.02(-0.27)
10(=) Sam Hunt - Outskirts 45.26(-0.28)

11(=) Ariana Grande - we can't be friends (wait for your love) 44.81(+0.81)
21(=) Bailey Zimmerman - Where It Ends 36.84(+0.70)
27(=) Taylor Swift - Fortnight (feat. Post Malone) 31.91(+0.78)
30(=) Lainey Wilson - Wildflowers and Wild Horses (Single Version) 30.75(+1.42)
33(+1) Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar - Like That 27.48(+1.11) +
35(+2) Hozier - Too Sweet 24.82(+1.61)
75(+3) Cody Johnson - Dirt Cheap 14.75(+0.82)
85(+5) Dua Lipa - Illusion 12.71(+0.90) +
92(+11) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 11.54(+1.22)

[enwhy]

Spotify's autoplay payola is an interesting subject. Obviously they've ramped it up over the past couple of years, and we saw a couple examples (especially early last year) of certain songs seeing unpredictable momentum.

Wanted to see if we could glean anything from plotting out the stream totals.

First in Jan 2023 there were a few songs which were called out for clearly getting some help. Nonsense was the most obvious, going from <6M to 21M in a couple of weeks, then back down again to 10-12M.
Snooze by SZA and OMG by NewJeans also seemed to come up everywhere in conversations about the autoplay. Unlike Nonsense, both these songs continued a steady growth after the initial boost, and I'm not 100% convinced that autoplay was a major factor in either's success.


Now into 2024 songs. I plotted most of the songs to debut in the Top 20 Globally this year.

Nothing here is anywhere near as obvious as Nonsense. I'm seeing much more of the Snooze/OMG type runs, where you see strong growth for 2-3 weeks followed by a natural peak and descent. What sticks out to me is how many songs seem to grow into their second week now - this could absolutely be algorithm-driven. We've grown accustomed to runs like FRI(END)S, Like That, and Training Season (shown as dotted lines above) where the 1st week is the peak.

If you're looking for ammo for the payola argument, I think the most likely to have had some help are the ones with the steepest climbs in the 2nd and 3rd weeks...Texas Hold Em, Too Sweet, i like the way you kiss me, and Espresso. Anecdotally, those last two have shown up in my algorithm A LOT lately.

[theycallmedualian]

to the people saying "Espresso's rise is not due to autoplay", well riddle me this - how can it be #2 on US spotify, only 100k streams away from #1 while only being #24 on US AM at the same time?
and DONT START NOW with that "pop is weaker on AM compared to rap" claptrap, cus the discrepancy is way too big for that:

1. Fortnight is also pop, and a much longer, slower one at that; which obviously makes it less appealing to the predominately rap listeners of AM than espresso would be.

2. espresso is also behind another 12 TTPD album tracks, such as a 4:30 ballet "lmol", 10 days since that track was released. so how can espresso do THAT much worse on AM?

everything is pointing towards espresso getting an expresso boost on spotify and spotify only. it is just average everywhere else. its freakin #35 on amazon music ffs.

LOML is #26 on US spotify at 980k streams. this is probably where espresso would be without autoplay.




-


velaxti

Too Sweet is now "only" predicted to be #7 on the Hot 100 and "only" has 2.4 million streams a day once the autoplay deal finished. Sabrina will see a drop of a few hundreds thousand streams when her deal finishes too (they seem to last 1-2 weeks?). And whatever song gets it next will see a big boost for 1-2 weeks. So we have to talk about it.

I wish what you said was true that autoplay deals would only last a week or 2, but that isnot true proven by benton boom's Beautiful Khia. it was going up for a whole month straight, from 3M all the way to 8M. looks to me like autoplay can be kept on as long as you are paying. 

taylor should just pay a new Khia and their 1:59 min soundbite autoplay every week so as to deny the hack from the current Khia. 

[Choco]

Everytime I read Khia I feel like the argument gets dumber.

[jayhawk1117]

Is the crux of the argument…. It’s doing better on Spotify? Theres just NO WAY WE’RE BEING FR ATP.

The pop song is doing better on the service where pop songs have ALWAYS done better…. And isn’t doing as well on the platform that outside of major pop girls like Taylor and Ari, isn’t great for pop songs historically.

I just can’t fathom this line of thought. Quite literally just look at ANY pop song not by Taylor or Ari… I can promise you the discrepancy is equally bad. Another thing… if we just don’t count Taylor because her week 2 streams and sales are higher than almost everyone’s week 1s… Espresso is at 12 on AM which is pretty good an AM placement for pop songs and not this huge discrepancy yall are pretending it is

[suburbandreams]

Apr 29, 2024 20:38:09 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Is the crux of the argument…. It’s doing better on Spotify? Theres just NO WAY WE’RE BEING FR ATP.

The pop song is doing better on the service where pop songs have ALWAYS done better…. And isn’t doing as well on the platform that outside of major pop girls like Taylor and Ari, isn’t great for pop songs historically.

I just can’t fathom this line of thought. Quite literally just look at ANY pop song not by Taylor or Ari… I can promise you the discrepancy is equally bad. Another thing… if we just don’t count Taylor because her week 2 streams and sales are higher than almost everyone’s week 1s… Espresso is at 12 on AM which is pretty good an AM placement for pop songs and not this huge discrepancy yall are pretending it is

The heart of is its sudden week two jump without seeing a similar jump relative to placement on apple music.  And by experimentation, we can see that  its the algorithm's heavily favored song to play after a playlist or album ends regardless of the user's music preferences.t

That's something that's accepted on other chartwatchers as a sign of paid Spotify autoplay.

It doesn't mean that the song isn't a real hit but just got a big boost whose effects should wear off in a few weeks.

And autoplay is used for a reason. It gives a song more exposure, encouraging more people to add it to their playlists and keep on playing it even after the autoplay promotional period is over.

[eagle27]

Album tracks always do better on Apple regardless of genre. Spotify is more focused on music discovery, meaning hits spread quicker there. Apple is more of a digital personal music library and is simply much smaller in 2024 so Espresso is doing fine on that platform. Even if autoplay is carrying it more than we think, its performance in the next 10-20 weeks will reveal its true popularity. 

[wavey.]

Apr 29, 2024 18:16:14 GMT -5 Choco said:

Everytime I read Khia I feel like the argument gets dumber.

It's a whole Stan X think piece about why they can't take why Taylor really is doing this shit.

[haven]

I think there are some autoplay shenanigans involved, but they're being overestimated by some in this thread. With TTPD as the biggest album debut of the year, sabrina being in taylor's related artists section and the two generally having a lot of overlap, it makes sense that Espresso would autoplay. The songs very accessible pop, its a smash hit in itself, and main reason its staying stable over 3m is because people genuinely like it and are coming back to it a lot.

[sedrickwilhelm]

Apr 29, 2024 22:37:56 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Apr 29, 2024 18:16:14 GMT -5 Choco said:

Everytime I read Khia I feel like the argument gets dumber.

It's a whole Stan X think piece about why they can't take why Taylor really is doing this shit.

Not one person has insinuated that it is Taylor Swift benefiting so vastly from the autoplay. There is nothing surprising about a Taylor Swift song doing well. The discussion was always about the more questionable, out of nowhere type of situations such as "Too Sweet" and "Espresso"

[fridayteenage]

espresso is not out of nowhere

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 04/28/24

Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department [16/16]
1(=) Fortnight 2,914,037 (-421,421) (-12%)
4(-1) I Can Do It With A Broken Heart 2,214,432 (-378,211) (-15%)
6(-1) Down Bad 1,877,222 (-355,791) (-16%)
8(-1) So Long, London 1,500,347 (-237,623) (-14%)
10(-1) Who's Afraid of Little Old Me? 1,441,809 (-261,414) (-15%)
11(-1) My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys 1,435,781 (-246,550) (-15%)
12(-1) Florida!!!! 1,400,383 (-236,589)
13(-1) But Daddy I Love Him 1,386,341 (-248,552)
14(=) Guilty as Sin? 1,375,499 (-224,363)
15(=) The Tortured Poets Department 1,331,812 (-231,136)
19(-1) The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived 1,097,095 (-172,392)
23(-2) The Alchemy 1,027,031 (-166,580)
24(-2) Fresh Out the Slammer 1,017,044 (-173,287)
26(-3) loml 998,193 (-155,172)
35(-8) I Can Fix Him (No Really I Can) 907,153 (-157,078)
39(=) Clara Bow 827,838 (-136,788)
Total Tenth Day Streams: 22,752,017 (-14.32%)

Taylor Swift - THE ANTHOLOGY [15/15]
33(+2) So High School 917,395 (-111,847) (-11%)
36(-4) imgonnagetyouback 892,908 (-143,433) (-14%)
38(=) The Black Dog 858,522 (-131,543) (-13%)
42(=) The Prophecy 752,004 (-99,589)
51(-5) thanK you aIMee 695,487 (-118,830)
52(-2) How Did It End? 690,192 (-95,937)
53(-4) The Albatross 687,717 (-106,007)
55(-2) I Hate It Here 661,682 (-91,910)
57(-1) Chloe or Sam or Sophia or Marcus 631,282 (-95,062)
66(-9) I Look In People's Windows 607,571 (-107,912)
71(-6) The Bolter 588,568 (-78,489)
73(-6) Peter 584,037 (-80,962)
78(-4) Cassandra 538,028 (-77,776)
101(-8) The Manuscript 455,431 (-62,762)
114(-10) Robin 427,953 (-59,450)
Total Tenth Day Streams: 9,988,777 (-12.76%)

Overall Tenth Day Streams: 32,740,794 (-13.85%)

---

TOP 10 WITHOUT TTPD
2(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 2,772,841 (-247,762)
3(+1) Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 2,232,906 (-178,276) *NEW PEAK*
5(+1) Hozier - Too Sweet 1,942,275 (-264,737)
7(+1) Future, Metro Boomin, Kendrick Lamar - Like That 1,503,725 (-212,930)
8(+5) Artemas - i like the way you kiss me 1,453,883 (-168,195)
16(=) Drake - Push Ups 1,203,604 (-191,343) (-14%)
17(=) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 1,156,122 (-116,352)
18(+1) Chapell Roan - Good Luck, Babe! 1,137,957 (-72,579)
20(=) SZA - Saturn 1,057,281 (-136,691)
21(+4) Zach Bryan, Kacey Musgraves - I Remember Everything 1,054,351 (-32,978)

Other:
22(+6) Tommy Richman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY 1,032,441 (-24,260) *NEW PEAK*
25(+9) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 1,009,449 (-22,658)
27(-3) Kanye West, Ty Dolla $ign - CARNIVAL 985,045 (-118,459)
28(-2) Lay Bankz - Tell Ur Girlfriend 977,528 (-98,425)
29(+4) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 961,914 (-72,992)
30(=) Ariana Grande - we can't be friends (wait for your love) 950,133 (-95,842)
31(-2) FloyyMenor, Cris Mj - Gata Only 943,901 (-95,842)
32(-1) Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - Type Shit 924,105 (-118,774)
34(+2) Djo - End of Beginning 916,263 (-118,774)
37(=) Bryson Tiller - Whatever She Wants 892,026 (-109,335)
40(=) Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - FE!N 797,293 (-78,202)
41(+3) Tate McRae - greedy 768,542 (-63,060)
44(-3) Sexyy Red - Get It Sexy 749,701 (-103,066)
46(+1) 21 Savage - redrum 725,587 (-88,697)
47(+1) Dasha - Austin 707,158 (-90,191)
48(-5) GloRilla, Megan Thee Stallion - Wanna Be 706,350 (-133,714)
49(+3) Michael Marcagi - Scared to Start 701,914 (-72,550)
50(-5) Tommy Richman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY (VHS) 700,829 (-122,895) (-15%)
54(+1) Luke Combs - Where the Wild Things Are 681,639 (-54,051)
56(+7) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 632,983 (-50,603)
58(+1) Benson Boone - Slow It Down 627,639 (-81,529)
59(+11) Beyoncé - TEXAS HOLD EM 620,207 (-82,304)
60(+8) Rich Amiri - ONE CALL 619,993 (-39,783)
61(+8) d4vd - Feel It 614,733 (-41,229)
62(+2) Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me 612,831 (-67,578)
63(+3) BigXthaPlug - Mmhmm 610,270 (-56,657)
67(-5) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 604,680 (-80,694)
68(-7) GloRilla - Yeah Glo! 594,661 (-104,473)
69(-11) Myke Towers, Bad Bunny - ADIVINO 592,278 (-116,983) (-16%)
75(-3) Mark Ambor - Belong Together 575,470 (-48,488)
76(+6) Ritchy Mitch & The Coal Miners - Evergreen 566,658 (+10,492)
77(+6) Zach Bryan - Heading South 555,677 (+8,437)
79(-2) Chappell Roan - Red Wine Supernova 531,943 (-52,313)
82(+6) The Weeknd, JENNIE, Lily-Rose Depp - One of the Girls 519,509 (-14,462)
84(-3) Jessie Murph, Jelly Roll - Wild Ones 509,369 (-47,531)
85(+2) A$AP Rocky - Sundress 506,108 (-29,422)
86(-10) Tucker Wetmore - Wind Up Missin' You 503,736 (-86,854)
87(-3) Flo Milli - Never Lose Me 502,949 (-43,959)
90(+5) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 492,714 (-22,153)
91(+1) Artemas - if u think i'm pretty 483,316 (-39,342)
95(-16) Fuerza Regida - TÚ NAME 472,761 (-90,216)
96(-10) Xavi - La Diabla 471,791 (-71,493)
97(-12) Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott - Cinderella 468,996 (-76,505)
99(+8) Yeat - If We Being Rëal 457,360 (-19,518) *NEW PEAK*
100(+11) Dominic Fike - Babydoll 455,617 (-9,056)

102(+18) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 454,799 (+4,155)
105(-3) Olivia Rodrigo - obsessed 447,634 (-44,023)
107(-1) ILLIT - Magnetic 447,507 (-31,081)
110(-11) Benson Boone - Cry 441,521 (-52,613)
111(-11) Don Toliver - Bandit 434,394 (-57,916)
116(-7) Good Neighbors - Home 425,093 (-43,136)
117(-20) Xavi - Corazón de Piedra 422,489 (-82,877)
121(=) Chappel Roan - HOT TO GO! 411,731 (-36,485)
124(-16) BigXthaPlug - Back On My BS 409,999 (-64,839)
129(-11) Rvssian, Rauw Alejandro, Ayra Starr - Santa 396,187 (-57,898) (-13%)
131(-6) Bakar, Summer Walker - Hell N Back Remix 393,950 (-43,266)
132(+9) TV Girl - Not Allowed 393,212 (-2,289)
136(-2) Yeat - Breathe 384,514 (-26,109)
139(-2) Daya - Hide Away 384,150 (-18,361)
143(+21) Bryan Martin - We Ride 374,218 (+376)
156(=) The Red Clay Strays - Wondering Why 355,163 (-25,648)
160(-8) Dua Lipa - Illusion 348,845 (-35,365)
170(-16) Ariana Grande - the boy is mine 343,908 (-37,864)
172(-28) Natanael Cano, Oscar Maydon - Madonna 342,823 (-50,329)
177(-16) Future, Metro Boomin, The Weeknd - We Still Don't Trust You 340,132 (-36,078)
185(-50) $uicideboy$ - Are You Going to See the Rose in the Vase, or the Dust on the Table 338,215 (-69,807) (-17%)
194(-3) Bailey Zimmerman - Where It Ends 329,634 (-21,550)
195(-15) 4batz, Drake - act ii: date @ 8 Remix 329,413 (-31,503)
197(-9) Jungle - Back On 74 328,461 (-25,729)
199(-1) Josh Meloy - Porch Light 326,464 (-21,202)

Total Streams for Million Dollar Baby: 1,733,270 (would be #7 with combined streams)

US TOP 30! WITHOUT TTPD
#1. Espresso
#2. A Bar Song (Tipsy)
#3. Too Sweet
#4. Like That
#5. i like the way you kiss me
#6. Push Ups
#7. Beautiful Things
#8. Good Luck, Babe!
#9. Saturn
#10. I Remember Everything

#11. MILLION DOLLAR BABY *NEW PEAK*
#12. Stick Season
#13. CARNIVAL
#14. Tell Ur Girlfriend
#15. Lose Control
#16. we can't be friends (wait for your love)
#17. Gata Only
#18. Type Shit
#19. End of Beginning
#20. Whatever She Wants

#21. FE!N
#22. greedy
#23. Last Night
#24. Get It Sexyy
#25. Something in the Orange
#26. redrum
#27. Austin
#28. Wanna Be
#29. Scared to Start
#30. MILLION DOLLAR BABY (VHS)
#31. Where the Wild Things Are

[wavey.]

Apr 29, 2024 23:18:51 GMT -5 sedrickwilhelm said:

Apr 29, 2024 22:37:56 GMT -5 wavey. said:

It's a whole Stan X think piece about why they can't take why Taylor really is doing this shit.

Not one person has insinuated that it is Taylor Swift benefiting so vastly from the autoplay. There is nothing surprising about a Taylor Swift song doing well. The discussion was always about the more questionable, out of nowhere type of situations such as "Too Sweet" and "Espresso"

Taylor was a separate convo. I'm curious to understand why Hozier, an established artist, is questionable with his recent single. Did his collab with Noah Kahan not help before "Too Sweet"?

[balletgirlmom]

"Too Sweet" and "Espresso" and "Fortnight" are all equally great songs!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Espresso has dethroned Fortnight on both the Global and US Daily Spotify Charts

[whaleblubber]

Apr 29, 2024 17:42:44 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

1. Fortnight is also pop, and a much longer, slower one at that; which obviously makes it less appealing to the predominately rap listeners of AM than espresso would be.

2. espresso is also behind another 12 TTPD album tracks, such as a 4:30 ballet "lmol", 10 days since that track was released. so how can espresso do THAT much worse on AM?

everything is pointing towards espresso getting an expresso boost on spotify and spotify only. it is just average everywhere else. its freakin #35 on amazon music ffs.

LOML is #26 on US spotify at 980k streams. this is probably where espresso would be without autoplay.

velaxti

Too Sweet is now "only" predicted to be #7 on the Hot 100 and "only" has 2.4 million streams a day once the autoplay deal finished. Sabrina will see a drop of a few hundreds thousand streams when her deal finishes too (they seem to last 1-2 weeks?). And whatever song gets it next will see a big boost for 1-2 weeks. So we have to talk about it.

I wish what you said was true that autoplay deals would only last a week or 2, but that isnot true proven by benton boom's Beautiful Khia. it was going up for a whole month straight, from 3M all the way to 8M. looks to me like autoplay can be kept on as long as you are paying. 

taylor should just pay a new Khia and their 1:59 min soundbite autoplay every week so as to deny the hack from the current Khia. 

Taylor has always been the one pop girl to pull AM numbers comparable to Drake or Future, is this a serious argument?

And I don't know if you use the app but Beautiful Things was everywhere on TikTok. The 8M figure is huge but also in line with the huge numbers every Spotify hit has been pulling this year-- just before TTPD the top 5 cutoff on global Spotify was WCBF with 6.4M, while exactly a year ago it Kill Bill with 4.3M.

---

I'm just so tired of this discouse at this point. High debut = frontloaded fanbase carried inorganic hit, rising to peak = autoplay payola, artist I don't know has a hit = khia hack fraud, artist I know = sucking oxygen out of newer artists. At what point do we admit that "autoplay" is just code for "hit song I don't like"?