Billboard Hot 100: 05/18/2024

[ontopofthis]

May 6, 2024 5:02:56 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Would not be surprised if when Broken Heart becomes a single, it has more longevity.

Anyway, the beef is hot


Also I want to shoutout a friend of mine who helped track how Kendrick moved up artists charts in different countries

Drake appeared to be morose in that new song, and he absolutely relented. The fact that he cannot brag about numbers is probably what is anguishing him the greatest

[ontopofthis]

I have been paying so much attention to Kendrick and Drake, I have not even seen how terribly Dua Lipa is performing. She does not even have a song in the top 100

[jayhawk1117]

Any argument against the Kendrick and Drake songs NOT being on the Hot 100 this week when it’s FAR AND AWAY the biggest thing going on rn…. Is a straight invalid argument. Theres simply no argument for it.

“Longevity”, “Memorability”, “Prestige” - All bs in terms of A WEEKLY CHART. THE CHART MEASURES THE PERFORMANCE OF SEVEN DAYS. THE 5/25 FALL OFF HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE 5/18 PERFORMANCE.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Top 10 songs released in 2024 that didn't debut in the top 10 (so far):

-Beautiful Things (it was close tho, #15)

Euphoria (would've been a #1 debut if released on Friday) and A Bar Song (Tipsy) are on their way to join. It's insane that even artists like Sabrina, Hozier and Tommy Richman managed to debut in the top 10.

[clsvltn]

Taylor should've dropped the Fortnight extended Posty mix. Now with Morgan//Post coming Friday it might be pushed out a bit or not coming and she could just move to a 2nd song single in a few weeks

[Groovy]

It would be really interesting if Post Malone got another number 1 within a few weeks of each other.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

May 6, 2024 8:31:23 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Any argument against the Kendrick and Drake songs NOT being on the Hot 100 this week when it’s FAR AND AWAY the biggest thing going on rn…. Is a straight invalid argument. Theres simply no argument for it.

“Longevity”, “Memorability”, “Prestige” - All bs in terms of A WEEKLY CHART. THE CHART MEASURES THE PERFORMANCE OF SEVEN DAYS. THE 5/25 FALL OFF HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE 5/18 PERFORMANCE.

This. This rap beef is inarguably the biggest thing going on ATM across vall genres. Everyone is running to see their responses and are following them release by release. It's arguably one of the biggest moments in Hip/Hop in decades and absolutely should be reflected in the charts!

[stormlover74]

May 6, 2024 10:32:12 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

May 6, 2024 8:31:23 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Any argument against the Kendrick and Drake songs NOT being on the Hot 100 this week when it’s FAR AND AWAY the biggest thing going on rn…. Is a straight invalid argument. Theres simply no argument for it.

“Longevity”, “Memorability”, “Prestige” - All bs in terms of A WEEKLY CHART. THE CHART MEASURES THE PERFORMANCE OF SEVEN DAYS. THE 5/25 FALL OFF HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE 5/18 PERFORMANCE.

This. This rap beef is inarguably the biggest thing going on ATM across vall genres. Everyone is running to see their responses and are following them release by release. It's arguably one of the biggest moments in Hip/Hop in decades and absolutely should be reflected in the charts!

I agree. Look at Jason Aldean last year. Got a #1 because his video was banned on cmt then it faded away quickly. This should all blow over in a couple weeks

[👑 Eloquent ™]

^ That is given "Not Like Us" or another track doesn't take off on radio, which is entirely possible.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2024 » / « 05 » / « 06 »

1(=) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 81.19(+0.38)
2(=) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 71.52(+0.08)
3(=) Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me 57.61(-0.24)
4(=) Doja Cat - Agora Hills 56.74(-0.45)
5(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 56.48(+0.75) +
6(=) SZA - Saturn 55.26(+0.52)
7(=) Ariana Grande - we can't be friends (wait for your love) 49.71(+0.33)
8(=) Luke Combs - Fast Car 46.80(+0.20)
9(=) Tate McRae - greedy 45.56(-0.54)
10(=) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 44.82(-0.55)

13(=) Jordan Davis - Tucson Too Late 42.65(+0.81)

15(+4) Taylor Swift - Fortnight (feat. Post Malone) 40.62(+1.30)

26(+2) Hozier - Too Sweet 32.21(+1.08)

47(+2) Bossman Dlow - Get In With Me 20.81(+0.81)

62(+1) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 17.71(+1.04)

63(+1) Dua Lipa - Illusion 17.44(+0.88)

-(-) Kendrick Lamar - euphoria 3.90(+1.41) +

-(-) Thalia - Te Va Doler f/Grp Firme/DEORRO 2.66(+1.57) +

[sedrickwilhelm]

May 6, 2024 10:35:31 GMT -5 stormlover74 said:

May 6, 2024 10:32:12 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

This. This rap beef is inarguably the biggest thing going on ATM across vall genres. Everyone is running to see their responses and are following them release by release. It's arguably one of the biggest moments in Hip/Hop in decades and absolutely should be reflected in the charts!

I agree. Look at Jason Aldean last year. Got a #1 because his video was banned on cmt then it faded away quickly. This should all blow over in a couple weeks

Did you really just compare one of the biggest, most legendary rap battle beefs of all time to a lynching anthem that got pushed up to #1 through a dedicated racist effort and then fell off hard as shit?

“Like That” by itself already well exceeded that anyhow, and these will too.

[lazer]

Radio is looking sadder and sadder. Time to pull the plug!

[sedrickwilhelm]

May 6, 2024 10:36:56 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

^ That is given "Not Like Us" or another track doesn't take off on radio, which is entirely possible.

As much as I’d love to see “Not Like Us” hit radio… I question if it is legally possible 😅

May 6, 2024 11:24:03 GMT -5 lazer said:

Radio is looking sadder and sadder. Time to pull the plug!

Yeah.. They are always so far behind and out of touch.

[jred]

May 6, 2024 10:32:12 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

May 6, 2024 8:31:23 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Any argument against the Kendrick and Drake songs NOT being on the Hot 100 this week when it’s FAR AND AWAY the biggest thing going on rn…. Is a straight invalid argument. Theres simply no argument for it.

“Longevity”, “Memorability”, “Prestige” - All bs in terms of A WEEKLY CHART. THE CHART MEASURES THE PERFORMANCE OF SEVEN DAYS. THE 5/25 FALL OFF HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE 5/18 PERFORMANCE.

This. This rap beef is inarguably the biggest thing going on ATM across vall genres. Everyone is running to see their responses and are following them release by release. It's arguably one of the biggest moments in Hip/Hop in decades and absolutely should be reflected in the charts!

It’s not like weekly charts have ever been indicative of what will stick around for a long time, anyway. The Beatles’ most-streamed song of all-time is “Here Comes the Sun”, which never even charted on the Hot 100, even though they had 72 songs that did.

[stormlover74]

May 6, 2024 11:22:51 GMT -5 sedrickwilhelm said:

May 6, 2024 10:35:31 GMT -5 stormlover74 said:

I agree. Look at Jason Aldean last year. Got a #1 because his video was banned on cmt then it faded away quickly. This should all blow over in a couple weeks

Did you really just compare one of the biggest, most legendary rap battle beefs of all time to a lynching anthem that got pushed up to #1 through a dedicated racist effort and then fell off hard as shit?

“Like That” by itself already well exceeded that anyhow, and these will too.

Yes in terms of billboard being representative of what was going on during a given week. Good bad and ugly

[avamaxstan]

It seems that most of us predicted Fortnight's lack of longevity. This will likely be Taylor's most front-loaded era ever (not including the TVs). I expect ICDIWABH to be announced soon as single #2 and if she gives it a Cruel Summer-esque moment in the concerts it could take off. But with the European tour starting, I think that will likely be it for this era until Reputation TV is announced.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Like the Billboard charts, I think chartwatchers sometimes forget radio's purpose: get the highest ratings + best audience demographics to sell advertising. They will choose whatever format/content achieves that goal, even if it requires switching formats.

Radio stations want content that will reduces switching stations. For stations that play music - that means songs that are far more basic by familiar artists.

If playing rap beefs is part of that formula for success, radio would be on it. But, logically, unless those tracks can stand alone ('Bad Blood' for example) playing one between a bunch of other songs doesn't work because there's no context for most listeners.

The reality is that certain music may only work best for certain channels: video, streaming, social media or radio.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

May 6, 2024 12:45:26 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Like the Billboard charts, I think chartwatchers sometimes forget radio's purpose: get the highest ratings + best audience demographics to sell advertising. They will choose whatever format/content achieves that goal, even if it requires switching formats.

Radio stations want content that will reduces switching stations. For stations that play music - that means songs that are far more basic by familiar artists.

If playing rap beefs is part of that formula for success, radio would be on it. But, logically, unless those tracks can stand alone ('Bad Blood' for example) playing one between a bunch of other songs doesn't work because there's no context for most listeners.

The reality is that certain music may only work best for certain channels: video, streaming, social media or radio.

I actually agree in how some music does work best for certain formats and there are some songs that benefit from radio. For all the Dua Lipa fans, she would absolutely not be charting if it wasn't for radio.

That said, I do think this still requires a heavy rotation of songs. Pop radio is especially slow. I've been following the genre charts and rock, country, and even hip-hop rotate regularly. Pop's been slow for weeks now and we're just now getting new blood in with Fortnight and Espresso. That's before getting into AC. Again, not saying they should be removed, just that it would be nice if rotation was more consistent.

[stormlover74]

May 6, 2024 13:09:08 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

May 6, 2024 12:45:26 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Like the Billboard charts, I think chartwatchers sometimes forget radio's purpose: get the highest ratings + best audience demographics to sell advertising. They will choose whatever format/content achieves that goal, even if it requires switching formats.

Radio stations want content that will reduces switching stations. For stations that play music - that means songs that are far more basic by familiar artists.

If playing rap beefs is part of that formula for success, radio would be on it. But, logically, unless those tracks can stand alone ('Bad Blood' for example) playing one between a bunch of other songs doesn't work because there's no context for most listeners.

The reality is that certain music may only work best for certain channels: video, streaming, social media or radio.

I actually agree in how some music does work best for certain formats and there are some songs that benefit from radio. For all the Dua Lipa fans, she would absolutely not be charting if it wasn't for radio.

That said, I do think this still requires a heavy rotation of songs. Pop radio is especially slow. I've been following the genre charts and rock, country, and even hip-hop rotate regularly. Pop's been slow for weeks now and we're just now getting new blood in with Fortnight and Espresso. That's before getting into AC. Again, not saying they should be removed, just that it would be nice if rotation was more consistent.

And even with espresso doing well they are slow to drop feather which is fine as I like both but it could be an either/or situation with some stations

[Az Paynter]

Much of radio's problem is on radio's end, not Billboard's end. I'm not sure any of the major formats (ie. the ones that have - or can have - the biggest impact on Billboard) gets it right.

Pop: Takes so long to let a lot of songs even get started that they either run out of steam before they get to reach the peak they deserve, or hit their peak at a time when they should be well on their way out. This tends to be because once songs get huge, radio point blank refuses to move on from those songs. It is uncommon for songs to have a reasonable trajectory (ie. not hindered from climbing, and then well on its way out by the time it becomes eligible for recurrency).

Hot AC: Seems to be taking on Pop's habit of waffling and taking too long with songs, and AC's glacial reaction to change. Also is kind of unfair to format-specific hits that are pushed to HAC but not Pop; HAC always seems to give priority to the songs that are also big on Pop.

AC: Was already glacial but seems to have gotten even worse. As a format it is so recurrent-heavy and so slow to change, this is the major reason for year-old+ singles to still hold considerable airplay levels.

Country: Songs shouldn't take upwards of a year just to get anywhere. They are waaaaaaay too slow to move songs up, and equally too fast in dumping songs. I can see why they dump songs so strongly once they've peaked, but a more balanced chart run in either direction would probably allow for more hits and greater turnover. Also, the yucking on tomatoes.

Rhythmic/Urban: Will move fast on urban-leaning songs pushing them up the charts, and will be just as fast pushing them back out the door, or at least in my limited experience with Urban that's what I've seen that format do. That lightning speed is great for reacting to strong initial streaming, but doesn't help for a decently-healthy chart run when radio is in and out before it's really needed to flesh out a song's chart presense. This also doesn't help multi-format crossover hits, which can't reach their full airplay potential when the song is already on its way out at Rhythmic/Urban before it's anywhere near its Pop/additional format peaks (and has the carry-on effect of holding back Hot 100 chart performance).
________

Overall I think radio should be boosted in the Hot 100 formula to compensate for dwindling audience impressions and listenership but the current state of radio at large makes that untenable as an option because as the overall slowest-moving component boosting it as is would only amplify the issues it presently causes.

[stormlover74]

^ Yeah I just saw Scotty mccreery plummet from 1 to 19 on mediabase. Crazy to see a #1 song lose 2/3 of its spins in one week

[jenglisbe]

May 6, 2024 13:34:57 GMT -5 stormlover74 said:

^ Yeah I just saw Scotty mccreery plummet from 1 to 19 on mediabase. Crazy to see a #1 song lose 2/3 of its spins in one week

That type of thing happens all of the time on country radio; it's very manipulated and frankly shouldn't even count at this point.

[lazer]

There is no way for pop radio stations to justify playing Teddy Swims more than Sabrina Carpenter and Taylor Swifts newest single currently. Thats the problem with pop radio nowadays, they REFUSE to let go certain songs. If they have bigger and dynamic playlists, then they would have the justification of continuing to thrive in the music world but they are very close minded. Pop radio stations see streaming taking off and not finding ways to compete against it, they just continue to stick to their old method. They play a certain song in rotation AFTER the song tanked in streams instead of playing the song while it is still hot. The audience numbers bleeding out in recent years do not lie.

[fridayteenage]

May 6, 2024 12:07:20 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

It seems that most of us predicted Fortnight's lack of longevity. This will likely be Taylor's most front-loaded era ever (not including the TVs). I expect ICDIWABH to be announced soon as single #2 and if she gives it a Cruel Summer-esque moment in the concerts it could take off. But with the European tour starting, I think that will likely be it for this era until Reputation TV is announced.

As a fan, I find it v unlikely it'll best evermore in this regard

[Choco]

I mean evermore is the lowest bar to clear. One single and no promo whatsoever. The minute she drops a second single she has already beaten evermore lol.

Honestly not sure what's gonna happen. I never connected with the album at all so I kinda stopped following numbers. Is the album really going down much already? Not talking about physicals, those are getting more and more frontloaded by the minute.

[avamaxstan]

May 6, 2024 14:24:29 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

May 6, 2024 12:07:20 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

It seems that most of us predicted Fortnight's lack of longevity. This will likely be Taylor's most front-loaded era ever (not including the TVs). I expect ICDIWABH to be announced soon as single #2 and if she gives it a Cruel Summer-esque moment in the concerts it could take off. But with the European tour starting, I think that will likely be it for this era until Reputation TV is announced.

As a fan, I find it v unlikely it'll best evermore in this regard

im not familiar with its numbers. What was evermore’s second and third week drop? What percentage of its total sales are from the debut week?

[Rhythm Nation]

It just became the fastest album to clear 2bn on Spotify, maybe we shouldn’t declare it a flop just yet? I think it’s unlikely it will drop faster than evermore or Rep did initially.

[Music Fan]

As a fan, I love it... but crazy to me that Morgan Wallen is occupying 10% of AM's Top 100, and that's including probably about 20 Taylor songs still hanging in that range from TTPD.

[clsvltn]

I wonder if Morgan/Post will be a multi #1 week smash?

I'm guessing Kendrick #1 for 5/18 and then Post/Morgan for 5/25 (at least)

maybe outside chance at ESpresso if it keeps gaining for 6/1?

[stormlover74]

May 6, 2024 17:05:09 GMT -5 clsvltn said:

I wonder if Morgan/Post will be a multi #1 week smash?

I'm guessing Kendrick #1 for 5/18 and then Post/Morgan for 5/25 (at least)

maybe outside chance at ESpresso if it keeps gaining for 6/1?

I think espresso will need a remix to get to #1. But should spend a long time in the top 10