Billboard Hot 100: 06/15/2024

[avamaxstan]

Rihanna debuted #2 with an absolutely dreary godawful soundtrack ballad. If she drops a song even halfway decent it’s debuting #1 with huge numbers. But it’s a moot point since she's essentially retired from music.

Gaga is not debuting #1 without an assist from a huge current artist. And Katy should probably just be aiming to crack the top 50 :)

In all likelihood, the next #1 debut is either going to an out of nowhere viral smash, a diss track, or a vault track from Reputation TV.

[clsvltn]

It will all just depend on timing, promotion, and song quality. But I do think Rihanna, Katy, or Gaga could all have a chance. Yes, some of them have much more likelihood than others but we've seen crazy songs you'd never expect hit #1.

Heck, we might even get a Rihanna appearance on Eminem's new album that could be a #1 right there

[Deleted]

Jun 3, 2024 16:37:44 GMT -5 morgan96 said:

Morgan Wallen is now officially the artist with the most weeks at #1 of Billboard Hot 100 in current DECADE (19 weeks).
He is surpassing Taylor Swift & Roddy Rich.

Amazing it took four and a half years for someone to pass what Roddy Ricch did in 2020. He was the Taio Cruz/Wilson Phillips of the 2020s.

[Deleted]

Jun 3, 2024 15:26:39 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Rihanna could definitely debut at #1 if she actually releases a real comeback single that's attached to a real album and not just soundtrack filler, meanwhile I don't think Katy Perry or Gaga is a threat honestly, they are both well past their commercial days unless they somehow have a single that randomly has a lot of momentum like Flowers was for Miley.

R9's lead single is basically guaranteed to debut at #1, barring exceptional circumstances (an Old Town Road level viral smash for example).

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I mean, Gaga had a #1 debut with each of her last two eras. Rihanna hasn’t had an era in a decade. I wouldn’t count either out but I also don’t think I’d expect either are guaranteed.

[avamaxstan]

Jun 3, 2024 18:24:06 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I mean, Gaga had a #1 debut with each of her last two eras. Rihanna hasn’t had an era in a decade. I wouldn’t count either out but I also don’t think I’d expect either are guaranteed.

Rain on Me’s debut was largely carried on Ariana’s back. And Gaga still had some hype from Star is Born. I’m not sure what other #1 debut you’re referring to.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 06/02/24

1(=) Tommy Richman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY 3,146,485 (-283,095)
2(=) Post Malone, Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help 2,922,368 (-444,327)
3(=) Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us 2,886,519 (-462,171)
4(+2) Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER 2,359,315 (-202,546)
5(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 2,292,761 (-270,723)
6(-2) Eminem - Houdini 2,248,960 (-378,946) (-14%)
7(+1) Zach Bryan - Pink Skies 1,901,290 (-233,845)
8(-1) Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 1,854,504 (-707,136) (-28$)
9(=) Billie Eilish - LUNCH 1,761,210 (-194,499)
10(=) Hozier - Too Sweet 1,443,377 (-179,299)

Billie Eilish - HIT ME HARD AND SOFT [10/10]
12(-1) CHIHIRO 1,262,818 (-117,229)
23(+2) WILDFLOWER 873,365 (-53,959)
39(+6) L'AMOUR DE MA VIE 665,613 (-51,748)
41(+5) BLUE 656,032 (-47,770)
55(=) THE GREATEST 590,277 (-58,868)
63(+4) THE DINER 554,277 (-46,748)
68(+2) SKINNY 547,195 (-49,403)
106(+5) BITTERSUITE 452,202 (-38,125)
Total Sixteenth Day Streams: 9,722,304 (-8.13%)

Taylor Swift - THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT: THE ANTHOLOGY [13/31]
16(=) Fortnight 1,104,810 (-150,003)
20(-3) I Can Do It With A Broken Heart 929,567 (-139,607)
38(+2) Down Bad 668,212 (-90,276)
58(-1) Who's Afraid of Little Old Me? 570,933 (-74,243)
59(=) Guilty as Sin? 567,743 (-68,905)
76(-1) So Long, London 511,459 (-67,311)
79(-6) But Daddy I Love Him 506,552 (-76,674)
88(-3) My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys 488,757 (-59,769)
119(-5) Florida!!!! 431,955 (-53,918)
129(=) The Smallest Man Who Ever Lived 415,915 (-42,587)
134(=) The Tortured Poets Department 402,098 (-52,343)
178(+4) loml 353,912 (-36,095)
181(-10) So High School 353,257 (-45,702)
Total Forty-fifth Day Streams: 7,305,170 (-11.59%)

Other:
11(+1) Central Cee, Lil Baby - BAND4BAND 1,327,486 (-47,458) *NEW PEAK*
13(+1) Chapell Roan - Good Luck, Babe! 1,241,921 (-67,269)
14(-1) Future, Metro Boomin, Kendrick Lamar - Like That 1,179,567 (-148,752)
15(=) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 1,123,074 (-142,830)
18(+2) Artemas - i like the way you kiss me 937,170 (-95,392)
19(-1) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 932,282 (-133,180)
21(+1) Gunna - one of wun 883,276 (-93,842)
22(-1) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 878,745 (-127,006)
24(=) FloyyMenor, Cris Mj - Gata Only 842,386 (-89,647)
25(-2) Kendrick Lamar - euphoria 838,995 (-118,646)
26(+2) Myles Smith - Stargazing 818,257 (-99,053)
27(-1) Dasha - Austin 814,883 (-106,948)
29(=) Ariana Grande - we can't be friends (wait for your love) 790,394 (-109,360)
30(-3) Morgan Wallen, ERNEST - Cowgirls 779,053 (-142,025)
31(+2) Djo - End of Beginning 752,664 (-70,537)
33(-2) Future, Metro Boomin, Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - Type Shit 745,816 (-88,680)
35(-3) Benson Boone - Slow It Down 730,613 (-99,006)
36(=) SZA - Saturn 718,690 (-67,043)
40(+1) Michael Marcagi - Scared to Start 657,026 (-98,235)
42(+7) Zach Bryan - Heading South 645,336 (-39,023)
43(=) Luke Combs - Ain't No Love in Oklahoma 643,611 (-103,532)
47(+1) Chappell Roan - Red Wine Supernova 615,522 (-74,868)
48(-1) GloRilla - Yeah Glo! 614,752 (-80,642)
51(-13) Sexyy Red - Get It Sexy 606,483 (-159,262)
52(-2) Luis R Conriquez, Neton Vega - Si No Quieres No 601,828 (-81,506)
53(+10) Chappel Roan - HOT TO GO! 598,836 (-19,973) *NEW PEAK*
54(+4) Travis Scott, Playboi Carti - FE!N 590,951 (-49,835)
57(-4) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 578,891 (-77,190)
60(-4) Bryson Tiller - Whatever She Wants 560,097 (-86,539)
64(=) BigXthaPlug - Mmhmm 552,789 (-58,724)
65(+6) Zach Bryan - Sun to Me 552,209 (-43,761)
74(-14) Marshmello, Kane Brown - Miles On It 521,768 (-110,263)
75(+6) Ritchy Mitch & The Coal Miners - Evergreen 517,682 (-45,778)
78(+5) Rich Amiri - ONE CALL 507,182 (-49,427)
81(-5) Koe Wetzel - Sweet Dreams 505,173 (-73,064)
83(-1) Mark Ambor - Belong Together 501,698 (-60,621)
84(-10) GloRilla, Megan Thee Stallion - Wanna Be 496,970 (-84,961) (-15%)
90(+19) Tucker Wetmore - Wind Up Missin' You 485,558 (-10,179)
91(-3) Dominic Fike - Babydoll 480,242 (-50,018)
95(-9) A$AP Rocky - Sundress 479,856 (-68,278)
100(+12) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 466,933 (-23,266)

102(-9) Cris Mj - SI NO ES CONTIGO 457,700 (-66,343) (-13%)
108(-5) $uicideboy$ - The Thin Grey Line 447,236 (-53,417) (-11%)
109(+15) Tinashe - Nasty 446,907 (-23,862) *NEW PEAK*
118(-3) Kendrick Lamar, Jay Rock - Money Trees 432,990 (-52,686)
120(+10) d4vd - Feel It 430,424 (-28,075)
122(-5) Shoreline Mafia, OHGEESY, Fenix Flexin - HEAT STICK 426,193 (-55,576)
136(-13) Drake - Family Matters 397,927 (-74,232)
137(+4) Don Toliver - Bandit 397,032 (-46,319)
139(+7) BigXthaPlug - Back On My BS 395,923 (-37,407)
145(+4) Lay Bankz - Tell Ur Girlfriend 392,422 (-36,953)
148(+20) TV Girl - Not Allowed 388,068 (-15,620)
151(-12) Bryan Martin - We Ride 379,183 (-65,939)
156(+11) EBK Jaaybo - Boogieman 370,450 (-33,922)
160(+1) Kendrick Lamar - meet the grahams 365,501 (-44,039)
167(RE) Josh Meloy - Porch Light 359,799
172(-17) Gunna - on one tonight 357,120 (-66,952)
173(-36) Sexyy Red, Drake - U My Everything 355,870 (-92,537) (-21%)
177(+21) The Red Clay Strays - Wondering Why 354,810 (-24,759)
180(-18) Bailey Zimmerman - Where It Ends 353,547 (-55,449)
182(+11) Bakar, Summer Walker - Hell N Back Remix 352,300 (-30,475)
190(+6) Olivia Rodrigo - obsessed 348,983 (-30,905)
192(+2) Don Toliver, Charlie Wilson, Cash Cobain - Attitude 346,407 (-35,962)
193(RE) A$AP Rocky, Imogen Heap, Clams Casino - I Smoked Away My Brain 345,808
198(-19) Zach Bryan - Nine Ball 343,722 (-48,204)

Biggest Gains (50K+): Like Crazy

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Jun 3, 2024 18:32:27 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Jun 3, 2024 18:24:06 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I mean, Gaga had a #1 debut with each of her last two eras. Rihanna hasn’t had an era in a decade. I wouldn’t count either out but I also don’t think I’d expect either are guaranteed.

Rain on Me’s debut was largely carried on Ariana’s back. And Gaga still had some hype from Star is Born. I’m not sure what other #1 debut you’re referring to.

Okay and? She still had them. The point is, the situation matters. Whether it's hype from a movie, hype from a superbowl performance, or something else entirely. We can all talk about so-and-so being a guaranteed #1 debut until it doesn't happen, but then we're making up excuses (see: Rihanna). If a song is well-received, has hype, and can be carried for the entirety of its first week, then you have your #1 debut.

[85la]

Jun 3, 2024 18:32:27 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Jun 3, 2024 18:24:06 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

I mean, Gaga had a #1 debut with each of her last two eras. Rihanna hasn’t had an era in a decade. I wouldn’t count either out but I also don’t think I’d expect either are guaranteed.

Rain on Me’s debut was largely carried on Ariana’s back. And Gaga still had some hype from Star is Born. I’m not sure what other #1 debut you’re referring to.

Yeah I think he's mistakenly thinking Shallow debuted at #1.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Jun 3, 2024 22:25:43 GMT -5 85la said:

Jun 3, 2024 18:32:27 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Rain on Me’s debut was largely carried on Ariana’s back. And Gaga still had some hype from Star is Born. I’m not sure what other #1 debut you’re referring to.

Yeah I think he's mistakenly thinking Shallow debuted at #1.

Oh right, Shallow didn’t debut there. It got there after the Oscar performance. My bad.

[After Minutes]

Jun 3, 2024 18:04:14 GMT -5 @yoshi00 said:

Jun 3, 2024 16:37:44 GMT -5 morgan96 said:

Morgan Wallen is now officially the artist with the most weeks at #1 of Billboard Hot 100 in current DECADE (19 weeks).
He is surpassing Taylor Swift & Roddy Rich.

Amazing it took four and a half years for someone to pass what Roddy Ricch did in 2020. He was the Taio Cruz/Wilson Phillips of the 2020s.

You're making the very bold assumption that Roddy's The Navy Album won't be the biggest release of the decade

[suburbandreams]

Gaga is similar to Miley they are well respected but don't have big enough fanbases to hit #1 automatically and don't have a rep as consistent hit makers.

If Gaga has a hit that people love, she can get the #1 elsewise it will be a cute top 10 debut.

Regardless, another Gaga tour will smash.

[wavey.]

Jun 4, 2024 4:15:21 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

Gaga is similar to Miley they are well respected but don't have big enough fanbases to hit #1 automatically and don't have a rep as consistent hit makers.

"Flowers"?

[avamaxstan]

Jun 4, 2024 8:29:59 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Jun 4, 2024 4:15:21 GMT -5 suburbandreams said:

Gaga is similar to Miley they are well respected but don't have big enough fanbases to hit #1 automatically and don't have a rep as consistent hit makers.

"Flowers"?

That was the definition of a gp-fueled smash. The song is an undeniable classic and the world ate it up, giving her first big hit in a decade. On the other hand, artists with strong rabid fanbases will debut huge with any song even if it’s bad and not supported by the gp.

[jenglisbe]

"A Bar Song" has really plateaued on Spotify, even as its radio increases. Sadly I don't think it will be able to get past its #4 peak unless something gives it a real boost.

[Enigma.]

Gaga can go either way - low top ten/top 20 debut or #1 - it depends on the song. She/her label has the habit to save best songs for 2nd/3rd singles. I am hardcore little monster but don't expect her to go #1. If she doesn't, it's just not meant to happen.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

is this a joke or something? If not, it's so bad it actually makes me cry.

[avamaxstan]

Jun 4, 2024 8:51:36 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Gaga can go either way - low top ten/top 20 debut or #1 - it depends on the song. She/her label has the habit to save best songs for 2nd/3rd singles. I am hardcore little monster but don't expect her to go #1. If she doesn't, it's just not meant to happen.

If the pregnancy rumors are true, then sadly I don't think we'll be getting a pop era anytime soon.

[stormlover74]

Jun 4, 2024 8:48:54 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

"A Bar Song" has really plateaued on Spotify, even as its radio increases. Sadly I don't think it will be able to get past its #4 peak unless something gives it a real boost.

Yeah not sure what caused the massive drop yesterday

[Enigma.]

Jun 4, 2024 10:30:12 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Jun 4, 2024 8:51:36 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Gaga can go either way - low top ten/top 20 debut or #1 - it depends on the song. She/her label has the habit to save best songs for 2nd/3rd singles. I am hardcore little monster but don't expect her to go #1. If she doesn't, it's just not meant to happen.

If the pregnancy rumors are true, then sadly I don't think we'll be getting a pop era anytime soon.

She is not pregnant lol

But if she was, it wouldn't matter at all. Didn't you see the LG7 and "Gaga returns" teasers?

[Choco]

Kinda hate the trend of taking unflattering pictures from a side of pop lady and arguing that she seems pregnant. Just saw some pics of Taylor trying to argue she's pregnant as well. It's so dumb.

Plus a pregnancy means no music only if the singer is actually not willing to commit to an era. Cardi did it with Invasion of Privacy by rushing multiple video shoots. (Then she never again gave us even half that effort or commitment to a project, but that's an entire different thing).

[iHype.]

Her mainstream hit making days might officially be over. This isn’t single material, and especially not when your last comeback single flopped and that followed an entire album that flopped.

[andrebra]

Jun 4, 2024 11:12:58 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Her mainstream hit making days might officially be over. This isn’t single material, and especially not when your last comeback single flopped and that followed an entire album that flopped.

She’s made it clear in multiple posts now that this is not a single.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

We finally got a Rihanna announcement!

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2024 » / « 06 » / « 04 »

1(=) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 82.42(+0.28)
2(=) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 72.82(-0.09)
3(=) SZA - Saturn 69.65(+0.49)
4(=) Hozier - Too Sweet 69.01(+1.13)
5(=) Post Malone - I Had Some Help (feat. Morgan Wallen) 66.10(+1.41)
6(=) Ariana Grande - we can't be friends (wait for your love) 54.37(-0.38)
7(=) Taylor Swift - Fortnight (feat. Post Malone) 50.40(+0.51)
8(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Feather 48.37(-0.45)
9(=) Bailey Zimmerman - Where It Ends 47.51(-0.78)
10(=) Jelly Roll - Halfway To Hell 46.57(+1.24)

16(+2) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 38.88(+1.35)

24(+3) Tommy Richman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY 32.72(+1.69)

28(=) Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us 31.64(+0.89)

29(=) SZA - Snooze 31.22(+0.91)

30(=) Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 29.91(+0.76)

36(+1) Cardi B - Enough (Miami) 27.97(+1.04)

64(+1) Luke Combs - Ain't No Love In Oklahoma 17.66(+0.71)

[KeepDeanWeird]

Jun 4, 2024 8:48:54 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

"A Bar Song" has really plateaued on Spotify, even as its radio increases. Sadly I don't think it will be able to get past its #4 peak unless something gives it a real boost.

Yeah, it's ironic because Country radio is all over it in a big way. It's up to 24 on Billboard Country Airplay in just 5 weeks. I know there's was speculation that Country wouldn't touch this.

Hopefully the combo Pop/Country/HAC will give it enough longevity to get to #2 at some point this summer.

[iHype.]

Jun 4, 2024 11:28:32 GMT -5 andrebra said:

Jun 4, 2024 11:12:58 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Her mainstream hit making days might officially be over. This isn’t single material, and especially not when your last comeback single flopped and that followed an entire album that flopped.

She’s made it clear in multiple posts now that this is not a single.

I see, however most people who check out a song weren’t reading social media posts prior. They just see her first new song in 1-2 years on Spotify and click.

Also I didn’t know about her recent health struggles so I hope she gets better!

[owenlovesmusic]

Houdini looks to be headed for #1 on the Hot 100. Will definitely surprise a lot of people.

[clsvltn]

Are we getting any more updates/predictions?

[Ratatouille]

Jun 4, 2024 12:47:46 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

Houdini looks to be headed for #1 on the Hot 100. Will definitely surprise a lot of people.

Impossible no radio