HITS 8/30: Sabrina Carpenter 362k, Travis Scott 361k

[fridayteenage]

last 20 years, women whose eras went from sub-50k debuts to a 200k+ debut: Adele, Taylor, Norah. and depending on your perspective, also Billie.

[85la]

Aug 25, 2024 8:12:20 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

last 20 years, women whose eras went from sub-50k debuts to a 200k+ debut: Adele, Taylor, Norah. and depending on your perspective, also Billie.

But the important distinction with these artists (with the exception of Billie) is that it was their debut eras with sub-50k debuts, which themselves eventually went on to peak higher with considerable notoriety. Sabrina has been releasing projects for 10 years with nowhere near the success of now. Of course, you can say her first two substantial Hot 100 hits, Nonsense and Feather, quickly built up to this moment.

[fridayteenage]

Aug 25, 2024 9:34:12 GMT -5 85la said:

Aug 25, 2024 8:12:20 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

last 20 years, women whose eras went from sub-50k debuts to a 200k+ debut: Adele, Taylor, Norah. and depending on your perspective, also Billie.

But the important distinction with these artists (with the exception of Billie) is that it was their debut eras with sub-50k debuts, which themselves eventually went on to peak higher with considerable notoriety. Sabrina has been releasing projects for 10 years with nowhere near the success of now. Of course, you can say her first two substantial Hot 100 hits, Nonsense and Feather, quickly built up to this moment.

that's true. mostly I just wanted to highlight all of those being AOTY winners. Though I think the academy will find her album too lightweight for that, I do hope she gets some hardware next year for this spectacular rise. Feels sorta like at the Oscars when a 'journeyman actor' who's never gotten that much attention finally has a big breakthrough and wins it all.

of course, it's not apples to apples, given that she's been famous as a celebrity since her Disney days, just not taken seriously as a performer until recently. I suppose a comparison could be made to zendaya.

[Future Captain]

wow, insane numbers for sabrina. HITS is predicting about 200 million streams, so about 140-150k from SPS? which means her pure sales are most likely in the 150k+ range. I wonder if above Billie's HMHAS (339k) is possible.

[clsvltn]

Sabrina's album deserves AOTY nomination. Not sure why some would call it "light weight" and even if that were the case, not every form of music needs to make you think or have powerful lyrics. Just a solid, fun all around album to listen to is also great.

[pnobelysk]

She had the perfect combo. Two summer smashes, first album since opening for Taylor swift, and momentum from last year created with nonsense and feather

[fridayteenage]

Aug 25, 2024 10:53:42 GMT -5 clsvltn said:

Sabrina's album deserves AOTY nomination. Not sure why some would call it "light weight" and even if that were the case, not every form of music needs to make you think or have powerful lyrics. Just a solid, fun all around album to listen to is also great.

well it's the main reason katy's never won a Grammy despite having a million smash hits.

[mccloud]

Aug 24, 2024 22:59:33 GMT -5 sedrickwilhelm said:

That's shockingly highly. I mean from what I've seen here "Espresso" and "Please, Please, Please" being so huge and consistently showing up on the Hot 100 top 10 month after month would indicate success like this typically, but still, she may have been around for a while but it is shocking how big the explosion of popularity is that it would translate to numbers like this. I mean, this is predicted to sell more than EMINEM's album. And that should not be an insult to Eminem, it should be a compliment to Sabrina Carpenter, because now-a-days these numbers are just amazing. If I had to guess why she managed to outdo Post Malone even though his one song is seemingly bigger than either of hers, the fact of the matter is she got a double whammy and he did not - not to say his other singles did horrible but they don't even approach the success of Sabrina's double smashes. So I guess that is the reason here. But I'm most definitely giving a total outside take, as I have not heard a single song from either Post's new album or this Sabrina album. Though I am curious to hear other opinion's on what caused her to out-do Post's album. But amazing numbers, she's clearly in the big leagues officially.

Edit: Also, how did Shaboozey's album perform so low when he had such a smash for it? This factor does make it a bit more confusing for me.

A couple reasons Shaboozey didn't have her numbers. 1. He had no audience prior to Bar Song blowing up while Sabrina slowly built her audience for almost a decade 2. He doesn't have a specific sense of humor and huge online presence like Sabrina

[mccloud]

In comparions, Crazy that Dua Lipa could not sniff 100k in the US following an album that sold over 9 million units worldwide. Just goes to show you're only as good as your last song

[Enigma.]

Sabrina is in her "Teenage Dream" phase to some extent. Her previous album was mild success and now she has a true blockbuster era. It's very interesting to watch.

[musiclife]

Aug 25, 2024 16:07:17 GMT -5 mccloud said:

In comparions, Crazy that Dua Lipa could not sniff 100k in the US following an album that sold over 9 million units worldwide. Just goes to show you're only as good as your last song

I don't think Dua ever really gained a fanbase through her career to carry her.. I think that's why. I feel like she had her small fanbase and casual listeners. Unfortunately it wasn't enough to carry her.

[avamaxstan]

Aug 25, 2024 16:07:17 GMT -5 mccloud said:

In comparions, Crazy that Dua Lipa could not sniff 100k in the US following an album that sold over 9 million units worldwide. Just goes to show you're only as good as your last song

That’s not true for artists who build a devoted fanbase and artistic narrative. But when you don’t have that (Katy, Dua) yes you’re only as good as your last radio hit.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

I love how Katy is epitome for everything lol. The next-level success (Teenage Dream), the biggest downfall (Witness), singles artist/huge but no fanbase, the greatest pop battle (Roar vs Applause).
but yeah, I agree with the comments here, Sabrina unlike Dua, has a solid fanbase, and people seem to be more interested in her.

[jenglisbe]

Aug 26, 2024 1:22:17 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Sabrina is in her "Teenage Dream" phase to some extent. Her previous album was mild success and now she has a true blockbuster era. It's very interesting to watch.

Katy's album prior to Teenage Dream had a #1 hit, a #3 hit, and another top 10 hit. Two of those hit #1 at Top 40 radio, and the other one peaked at #2 there. How is that a 'mild' success?
Sabrina's previous album didn't have any top 10 hits on either the Hot 100 or Top 40 radio. That's a huge difference from the Katy album you are comparing it to. ("Feather" was then on the deluxe edition and was her biggest hit to date, but even that didn't have nearly the success of the three big hits from Katy's album.)

[Eqbk]

It's interesting to see that there is a comparison being made between Sabrina/Short n' Sweet and Katy/Teenage Dream. I don't think it's an apt comparison though, because (correct me if I'm wrong) Katy has never actually cracked 300k in opening week sales, while Sabrina possibly could in 2024. I believe her highest opening was actually 286k with Prism back in 2013, and that was following one of the biggest pop eras ever.

[avamaxstan]

Yes she's clearing all of Katy and Rihanna's debut weeks, but their heyday was before the SPS era. I can't imagine SNS being nearly as big as the domination of TD, but Sabrina keeps blowing away assumptions so anything's possible.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

yeah, 300k pure sales in 2013 and 300k SPS in 2024 can't be compared.

[jenglisbe]

Aug 26, 2024 9:18:22 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

yeah, 300k pure sales in 2013 and 300k SPS in 2024 can't be compared.

It can't be in some sense, but what can be compared is how big those debuts are within their era. Teenage Dream only sold 192k in its debut week, which was definitely a low total considering, no? Having said that, it then went on to go Diamond. Sabrina looks like she might have one of the bigger debuts of the year. That's impressive regardless of the actual numbers. The bigger question, though, is what kind of legs will it have?

[Eqbk]

300k album sales in the Digital Downloads era vs SPS era:

SPS era

2024

Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department: 2.6 million

Beyonce - Cowboy Carter: 407k

Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft: 339k

Total: 3 albums (so far)

But since 2024 is not over yet, here is 2023 (the latest full year with SPS)

2023

Taylor Swift - 1989 TV: 1.6 million

Taylor Swift - Speak Now TV: 716k

Morgan Wallen - One Thing at a Time: 501k

Travis Scott - Utopia: 496k

Drake - For All the Dogs: 402k

Olivia Rodrigo - Guts: 302k

Total: 6 albums

Digital Downloads Era

2013 (the year Prism gave Katy her highest opening week sales of 286k)
Justin Timberlake - The 20/20 Experience, Part 1: 968k

Eminem - Marshall Mathers LP 2: 792k

Drake - Nothing Was the Same: 658k

Beyonce - Beyonce: 617k

One Direction - Midnight Tales: 546k

Jay-Z - Magna Carter Holy Grail: 528k

Luke Bryan - Crash My Party: 528k
Justin Timberlake - The 20/20 Experience, Part 2: 350k

Daft Punk - Random Access Memories: 339k

Kanye West - Yeezus: 327k

Total: 10 albums (almost double the amount of 2023)

2010 (The year Teenage Dream debuted with 192k)

Taylor Swift - Speak Now: 1.05 million
Eminem - Recovery: 741k

Susan Boyle - I Dreamed a Dream: 661k
Sade - Soldier of Love: 502k

Kanye West - My Beautiful Twisted Fantasy: 496k

Lady Antebellum - Need You Now: 481k

Drake - Thank Me Later: 447k

Alicia Keys - The Element of Freedom: 441k
Nicki Minaj - Pink Friday: 375k

Mary J. Blige - Stronger With Each Tear: 330k
Usher - Raymond v Raymond: 329k
Susan Boyle - The Gift: 318k

Total: 12 (double the amount of 2023)

Feel free to correct me if I missed anything.

[Mayman]

Eqbk I think you mixed up Speak Now TV and 1989 TV in your 2023 list.

[mccloud]

Aug 26, 2024 9:18:22 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

yeah, 300k pure sales in 2013 and 300k SPS in 2024 can't be compared.

300k is much, much more impressive in 2024

[mccloud]

Aug 26, 2024 7:33:24 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Aug 25, 2024 16:07:17 GMT -5 mccloud said:

In comparions, Crazy that Dua Lipa could not sniff 100k in the US following an album that sold over 9 million units worldwide. Just goes to show you're only as good as your last song

That’s not true for artists who build a devoted fanbase and artistic narrative. But when you don’t have that (Katy, Dua) yes you’re only as good as your last radio hit.

Only the biggest artists in the world can do 2-300k without somewhat of a hit. Even the artists with decent sized fanbases flop without one

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Aug 26, 2024 14:49:29 GMT -5 mccloud said:

Aug 26, 2024 9:18:22 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

yeah, 300k pure sales in 2013 and 300k SPS in 2024 can't be compared.

300k is much, much more impressive in 2024

okay, your opinion, I disagree with that. Flo Rida's Wild Ones produced 4 big top 10 hits in 2011-12, and the album debuted at #14 with 31k copies, with that amount of hits in 2024, he would easily debut with like 120k SPS and reach #1 probably. Also, it would've been one of the biggest albums of 2012 if SPS existed, instead it was #186 on the YE chart.

MAYBE it's more impressive because we don't have as many stars as before, who would be able to move that amount of units, but in 2024, A HIT or two can save your debut and carry the era for a couple of months, which wasn't a guarantee before, people just buy the song on iTunes or stream on YouTube and that won't do anything for your album, and now every stream or purchase counts.

[mccloud]

Aug 26, 2024 15:37:05 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Aug 26, 2024 14:49:29 GMT -5 mccloud said:

300k is much, much more impressive in 2024

okay, your opinion, I disagree with that. Flo Rida's Wild Ones produced 4 big top 10 hits in 2011-12, and the album debuted at #14 with 31k copies, with that amount of hits in 2024, he would easily debut with like 120k SPS and reach #1 probably. Also, it would've been one of the biggest albums of 2012 if SPS existed, instead it was #186 on the YE chart.

MAYBE it's more impressive because we don't have as many stars as before, who would be able to move that amount of units, but in 2024, A HIT or two can save your debut and carry the era for a couple of months, which wasn't a guarantee before, people just buy the song on iTunes or stream on YouTube and that won't do anything for your album, and now every stream or purchase counts.

Flo Rida is the definition of a faceless singles artist that never had a fanbase. He wouldn't debut with any decent numbers unless he had two of the biggest singles in the country at the exact moment his album dropped. Kendrick Lamar did 600k in 2017 and Drake did over 1 million in 2016 compared to their latest albums doing 300k (2022) and 400k (2023). 

[mccloud]

Aug 26, 2024 11:18:49 GMT -5 Eqbk said:

300k album sales in the Digital Downloads era vs SPS era:

SPS era

2024

Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department: 2.6 million

Beyonce - Cowboy Carter: 407k

Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft: 339k

Total: 3 albums (so far)

But since 2024 is not over yet, here is 2023 (the latest full year with SPS)

2023

Taylor Swift - 1989 TV: 1.6 million

Taylor Swift - Speak Now TV: 716k

Morgan Wallen - One Thing at a Time: 501k

Travis Scott - Utopia: 496k

Drake - For All the Dogs: 402k

Olivia Rodrigo - Guts: 302k

Total: 6 albums

Digital Downloads Era

2013 (the year Prism gave Katy her highest opening week sales of 286k)
Justin Timberlake - The 20/20 Experience, Part 1: 968k

Eminem - Marshall Mathers LP 2: 792k

Drake - Nothing Was the Same: 658k

Beyonce - Beyonce: 617k

One Direction - Midnight Tales: 546k

Jay-Z - Magna Carter Holy Grail: 528k

Luke Bryan - Crash My Party: 528k
Justin Timberlake - The 20/20 Experience, Part 2: 350k

Daft Punk - Random Access Memories: 339k

Kanye West - Yeezus: 327k

Total: 10 albums (almost double the amount of 2023)

2010 (The year Teenage Dream debuted with 192k)

Taylor Swift - Speak Now: 1.05 million
Eminem - Recovery: 741k

Susan Boyle - I Dreamed a Dream: 661k
Sade - Soldier of Love: 502k

Kanye West - My Beautiful Twisted Fantasy: 496k

Lady Antebellum - Need You Now: 481k

Drake - Thank Me Later: 447k

Alicia Keys - The Element of Freedom: 441k
Nicki Minaj - Pink Friday: 375k

Mary J. Blige - Stronger With Each Tear: 330k
Usher - Raymond v Raymond: 329k
Susan Boyle - The Gift: 318k

Total: 12 (double the amount of 2023)

Feel free to correct me if I missed anything.

Exactly. Twice as many people put up those numbers 10 years ago

[iHype.]

Streaming era made things move lower units on a weekly basis, but instead they also accumulate units for a much longer period now. Hence Morgan still doing 35k+ every week 3+ years later, even something that Thriller/21 weren't capable of doing despite Morgan's album never selling 300k in any single week. 

Monster albums generally aren't selling 100K for like 5 months straight anymore, but they are having unprecedented stability with years and years in the top 40/top 100/top 200 and no end in sight.

Sabrina's first week is more 'impressive' than Katy's, but fwiw I also generally think first weeks matter less and less these days when streaming is moreso longevity oriented. Chappell, Charli, etc did a fraction of Cowboy Carter's opening and yet they are obviously going to move a much higher total. First weeks will always be interesting achievements and a gauge of immediate interest/fabase size but they are growing more opposite in regards to how albums do overall (not to mention with bundles, and now variants, first weeks become "manufactured" to save face momentarily for a lot of acts who are actually losing lots of overall popularity at times). 

[jenglisbe]

Aug 26, 2024 16:29:04 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Streaming era made things move lower units on a weekly basis, but instead they also accumulate units for a much longer period now. Hence Morgan still doing 35k+ every week 3+ years later, even something that Thriller/21 weren't capable of doing despite Morgan's album never selling 300k in any single week. 

Monster albums generally aren't selling 100K for like 5 months straight anymore, but they are having unprecedented stability with years and years in the top 40/top 100/top 200 and no end in sight.

Sabrina's first week is more 'impressive' than Katy's, but fwiw I also generally think first weeks matter less and less these days when streaming is moreso longevity oriented. Chappell, Charli, etc did a fraction of Cowboy Carter's opening and yet they are obviously going to move a much higher total. First weeks will always be interesting achievements and a gauge of immediate interest/fabase size but they are growing more opposite in regards to how albums do overall (not to mention with bundles, and now variants, first weeks become "manufactured" to save face momentarily for a lot of acts who are actually losing lots of overall popularity at times). 

All of this is accurate, but what prompted this discussion was a comparison of Katy's debut week and Sabrina's debut week. Considering Katy was coming off an album with 3 hits and had a current hit at the time her album dropped, that opening week total being less than 200k was definitely a disappointment. Sabrina's total this week, meanwhile, looks to be a very high total for the year 2024. Strictly in terms of debut weeks, Sabrina's debut is more impressive any way you look at it. That one thing is clearly separate from whether or not Sabrina's era will be stronger in the long run (and that comparison brings a lot of the factors you mention into the discussion).

[Acid Eyes]

It's funny because as I was listening to Short 'n' Sweet, I also immediately thought of Teenage Dream and 1989 to some extent. I couldn't think of another album that got 3 hits so quickly. It was obvious from the first listen that Taste would at least debut high, even if it doesn't have longevity (but who knows). And I could see them sending Good Graces, Bad Chem, and/or Juno to radio at some point just to see what happens.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Aug 26, 2024 16:59:18 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Aug 26, 2024 16:29:04 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Streaming era made things move lower units on a weekly basis, but instead they also accumulate units for a much longer period now. Hence Morgan still doing 35k+ every week 3+ years later, even something that Thriller/21 weren't capable of doing despite Morgan's album never selling 300k in any single week. 

Monster albums generally aren't selling 100K for like 5 months straight anymore, but they are having unprecedented stability with years and years in the top 40/top 100/top 200 and no end in sight.

Sabrina's first week is more 'impressive' than Katy's, but fwiw I also generally think first weeks matter less and less these days when streaming is moreso longevity oriented. Chappell, Charli, etc did a fraction of Cowboy Carter's opening and yet they are obviously going to move a much higher total. First weeks will always be interesting achievements and a gauge of immediate interest/fabase size but they are growing more opposite in regards to how albums do overall (not to mention with bundles, and now variants, first weeks become "manufactured" to save face momentarily for a lot of acts who are actually losing lots of overall popularity at times). 

All of this is accurate, but what prompted this discussion was a comparison of Katy's debut week and Sabrina's debut week. Considering Katy was coming off an album with 3 hits and had a current hit at the time her album dropped, that opening week total being less than 200k was definitely a disappointment. Sabrina's total this week, meanwhile, looks to be a very high total for the year 2024. Strictly in terms of debut weeks, Sabrina's debut is more impressive any way you look at it. That one thing is clearly separate from whether or not Sabrina's era will be stronger in the long run (and that comparison brings a lot of the factors you mention into the discussion).

not really myself these days, I was thinking of something different and completely missed the point - my point was the fact that album chart is now more kinder to singles artists, than 15 years ago. Yes, Sabrina's debut is more impressive, definitely, I just wish there's a universe where I could see the TD debut numbers in SPS era with California Gurls, Teenage Dream and Firework smashing (almost) at the same time, just like Sabrina's trio of hits.

[fridayteenage]

Aug 26, 2024 17:00:29 GMT -5 Acid Eyes said:

It's funny because as I was listening to Short 'n' Sweet, I also immediately thought of Teenage Dream and 1989 to some extent. I couldn't think of another album that got 3 hits so quickly. It was obvious from the first listen that Taste would at least debut high, even if it doesn't have longevity (but who knows). And I could see them sending Good Graces, Bad Chem, and/or Juno to radio at some point just to see what happens.

Non Taylor female albums with three top 5 hits in the sps era:
Thank u next
Sour
Though I suspect taste will have a much better run than break up with your gf