HITS 8/30: Sabrina Carpenter 362k, Travis Scott 361k

[Mayman]

[Choco]

Bigger than Post is kinda shocking. This might even beat Olivia's biggest debut which is just crazy.

[musiclife]

I legit just said HOLY SH IT out loud in Target when I was buying her vinyl. That's incredible. I was honestly expecting like 150 tops.

[joshtheking]

theycallmedualian these numbers are interesting aren't they?

[Mayman]

Jun 19, 2024 9:51:41 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

bookmarked you for sure. 99% of the time a big single never translates into album numbers. especially when its due to gimmicks like TTH or autoplay. sabrina is not getting anywhere past 80k SEAs, probably less than 80k total 

Jun 18, 2024 20:33:53 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

How are people still confusing good singles numbers will translate into big album numbers? Miley virus’s “Flowers” is like the 2nd biggest hit of the decade and her album had a total of 65K SEAs. I can bet Sabrina will do around this number too, and she ain’t gonna sell 50k physicals like Miley could. She’s guaranteed to do less than 6 digits.

Jun 18, 2024 19:56:19 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

sabrina will do less than 80k 

Always so confident and always so wrong.

[areyoureadytojump]

HOLY SH.IT!

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=342397&title=A-VERY-SWEET-START-FOR-SABRINA

Saturday, August 24, 2024

A VERY SWEET START FOR SABRINA

Sabrina Carpenter's Short n' Sweet (Island) blasts off with a sure shot to earn her first #1 on next week's HITS Top 50. The 12-track release is on target to open with at least 280-310k. Could it be bigger? First-week U.S. audio streams are expected to land in the 200m range.

"Please Please Please" and new singled "Taste" hold #1 and #2, respectively, at both Apple Music and Spotify U.S. after the album's opening day.

Projections for Travis Scott, Lainey Wilson and others will be available on Monday.

[jdanton2]

great numbers . i saw some prediction somewhere that Post might get a second week at #1. now it looks like Sabrina will have a higher debut than he did.

[ItsAStormOutside]

Who’s the clown who said this wouldn’t do more than 80k? lol Happy for Sabrina! Loved the album!

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

It will interesting to see how Sabrina's numbers will be divide between pure sales and streaming. I can see her album have selling over 100k pure.

[SPRΞΞ]

Aug 24, 2024 13:10:19 GMT -5 Choco said:

This might even beat Olivia's biggest debut which is just crazy.

Espresso is bigger than careers, I fear.

[andrebra]

I love when people have to eat their words.

[wavey.]

🤯🤯 mfs were WAY off. Salute!

[Enigma.]

at 80k as PPP and Espresso alone + some pure sales would guarantee that.

[fridayteenage]

Aug 24, 2024 13:17:47 GMT -5 Mayman said:

Jun 19, 2024 9:51:41 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

bookmarked you for sure. 99% of the time a big single never translates into album numbers. especially when its due to gimmicks like TTH or autoplay. sabrina is not getting anywhere past 80k SEAs, probably less than 80k total 

Jun 18, 2024 20:33:53 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

How are people still confusing good singles numbers will translate into big album numbers? Miley virus’s “Flowers” is like the 2nd biggest hit of the decade and her album had a total of 65K SEAs. I can bet Sabrina will do around this number too, and she ain’t gonna sell 50k physicals like Miley could. She’s guaranteed to do less than 6 digits.

Jun 18, 2024 19:56:19 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

sabrina will do less than 80k 

Always so confident and always so wrong.

Thanks, I was going to look at least one of these posts up. Those predictions were unhinged. As I said in response to one, Gracie Abrams got 89k and only just got a top 40 (#36) with taylor's help.

I've been expecting 200k+.

[Push The Button]

Not yall PLOPPING those receipts on the table. I love this place.

[Caviar]

Who tf said she would barely clear 100k?

[Ling-Ling]

Those numbers are fantastic, I was thinking 150-200.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Yaaaaass! My girl is winning big as she should!!! We LOVE to see it. This blonde girl never made me doubt!

[thegreatdivine]

Yeah, this is definitely doing over 300k.

[Juan Carlos]

I just want to let you know that some of you might have missed this from a week ago, so don't expect a reply from a certain poster in this thread until HITS reveals the final figures for this week, lol!

Aug 17, 2024 5:36:31 GMT -5 Juan Carlos said:

I just want to give an update that I've seen the latest forecast and it's going to be two calm weeks. I recommend to use the report button instead of engaging with others whether you see a questionable post or not.

[NeRD]

Great numbers. This is really her breakout era.

[fridayteenage]

18k debut for her previous album. so currently estimated about 16x growth.

Tried to find Gracie numbers in comparison, but while I know 89k was this year's debut, can't find good riddance's debut #s just that it charted at #52.

[clsvltn]

wow, I didn't think she would beat Post Malone! I think with all this buzz it will keep growing with the future singles, videos, etc. I am now thinking this is putting really in talks for AOTY nominee at the grammys. The question is, who is she now going to bump out ?

FWIW - Billboard current AOTY predictions are - Beyonce, Sabrina, Billie, Ariana, Chappell, Chris Stapleton, Taylor Swift and Tyla

[Choco]

Predicting Tyla is downright laughable imho.

Those predictions barely even acknowledge that there's always two or three nominees that come out of nowhere, sometimes from albums that only the Academy hear (Jon Batiste anyone??). At this point I think Ariana is out of the running too.

[Darkest Hour]

Aug 24, 2024 20:29:05 GMT -5 Choco said:

Predicting Tyla is downright laughable imho.

Those predictions barely even acknowledge that there's always two or three nominees that come out of nowhere, sometimes from albums that only the Academy hear (Jon Batiste anyone??). At this point I think Ariana is out of the running too.

Tyla's prediction is more like trying to get a world music representation in Grammys. She has some success with singles to back up and already won a Grammy Award from her first nomination.

Sabrina Carpenter potentially doing better than Olivia in first week debut is crazy. Wonder whether her team will push to 300k+ mark.

[sedrickwilhelm]

That's shockingly highly. I mean from what I've seen here "Espresso" and "Please, Please, Please" being so huge and consistently showing up on the Hot 100 top 10 month after month would indicate success like this typically, but still, she may have been around for a while but it is shocking how big the explosion of popularity is that it would translate to numbers like this. I mean, this is predicted to sell more than EMINEM's album. And that should not be an insult to Eminem, it should be a compliment to Sabrina Carpenter, because now-a-days these numbers are just amazing. If I had to guess why she managed to outdo Post Malone even though his one song is seemingly bigger than either of hers, the fact of the matter is she got a double whammy and he did not - not to say his other singles did horrible but they don't even approach the success of Sabrina's double smashes. So I guess that is the reason here. But I'm most definitely giving a total outside take, as I have not heard a single song from either Post's new album or this Sabrina album. Though I am curious to hear other opinion's on what caused her to out-do Post's album. But amazing numbers, she's clearly in the big leagues officially.

Edit: Also, how did Shaboozey's album perform so low when he had such a smash for it? This factor does make it a bit more confusing for me.

[fridayteenage]

shaboozey's numbers imply he's thought of as the bar song guy and that's it.
based on kworb, 75% of his daily numbers are just that song.

almost the same proportion as NSync atm, with bye bye bye currently 1 spot ahead of bar song on Spotify.

[85la]

Amazing numbers for Sabrina and I'm really happy for her! I must say though, it is kind of shocking, especially how she suddenly seemed to explode despite many years already in the industry, and of course none of her previous albums peaked even remotely as highly (none even in the top 20 in fact).

And of course, there definitely are countless examples to show that big singles don't always translate to big album openings. Some of the many examples, including artists who were well established and deep into their careers, include Rihanna, Flo Rida, Katy Perry, Doja, Miley's Endless Summer Vacation, or even Mariah until about Rainbow or EOM. Because of this, it's not completely unreasonable to have predicted she would have opened with just above or even failed to reach 100k.

Of course, there always are artists who have consistently high album openings and overall sales, with or without comparatively strong singles performance, but strong album sellers are usually established at the beginning or very early into careers, so Sabrina's sudden explosion (if it holds in the weeks and months to come), is a rare, rare exception.

[wavey.]

Shaboozey has been stable nonetheless in the Top 20/30. I wonder if he has another single ready.

[avamaxstan]

People initially thought she was crazy for releasing another single right when Espresso was still blowing up. Not only was it her first #1 and a simultaneous global smash, it previewed a very different sound that built interest in her artistic identity and the album. Sabrina played it perfectly to not get pigeonholed as the Espresso girl, and she’s being rewarded with a monster album debut and coronation as a main pop girl.