Pop Chart 11/21/03

[ted11804]

Time for the new week, as the final update for 11/14/03 occured last night.

Some comments on today's chart update (11/10/03).......

3 Doors Down had around +250 a few days ago, and they are losing their bullet very quickly again (+21 right now.) However, they are only about 150 spins away from Beyonce who is falling.

Looks like Trapt will be backwards bulleted this week to either #6 or #7. Outkast and Baby Bash will both pass, and Santana will most likely fall below them. Fountains of Wayne is safely holding steady at #3.

No Doubt is picking back up again into the +600s :)

Nelly Furtado is really fading away >:( :'(. With only a +22 bullet, she may be done..... :'(.....Could Enrique Iglesias follow her tracks in a few weeks? He is not doing well either.

On the other hand, after a 3 month wait, Dido is finally picking up! +240! Highest I've ever seen her.

Josh Kelley (+2) and Missy Elliott (-35) are done. What's happening to Nelly? How come he lost his bullet? Why is Sean Paul/Sasha slowing down?? I really want this to make it!

[ExActLy99]

It is a little early to start a new topic, but why all of the sudden has Simple Plan just blew up, bullet approaching +700! A lot of competition this week between 15-18, Matchbox Twenty also now nearing +300 again! I don't think Liz Phair will pass them. Britney's gains are back up and she could make Top 10 by the end of the week with the way Nelly is falling. "Get Low" looks to be about done. Outkast will make #4 this week and #3 next week! 9/10 of the songs in the 20's are bulleted and are within 1000 spins of eachother, Michelle Branch will hopefully make Top 20, only if Christina Aguilera doesn't get there first.

[singingsparrow]

Looks like 3 Doors Down are indeed in their prime week and will lose their bullet this week possibly, but with Beyonce falling a bit faster, 3 Doors Down may have a few more weeks at #1.

Simple Plan have a very strong bullet currently with "Perfect", but again, I believe we may be expecting a fast fall for this single. Of course "Addicted" had a suprisingly slow fall and even re-gaiined its bullet after falling from the Top 20 but their album is pretty much through in sales and there is not much backbone to it.

Meanwhile, matchbox twenty may have been backward-bulleted by Simple Plan this week, and are facing pressure from behind also from Nickelback, Ludacris, Christina Aguilera and Chingy, but they have gained nearly 200 spins since the last four days and their bullet is strong for "Bright Lights". Now their only great challenge is to hope the singles above them start losing spins faster so they can make yet another Top-10 hit.

Looks like Ludacris is on his way by far to getting his biggest career hit yet with "Stand Up". A Top-10 is possible, yet he may have to worry about his single already hitting #1 and losing spins on sister markets.

Britney Spears has actually gained some spins over the weekend, and is heel-to-heel with Stacie Orrico. Now it seems likely she will actually make the Top 10, but don't expect for her to go much further. The most likeliest prediction: Expect her bullet to vanish in the next two weeks and mega-losses in spins.

Finally, yay for Dido and Fuel. These two possible dark-horse candidates have healthy bullets. Of course, the former should be much higher on the chart right now, with her album having strong sales both domesticaslly and worldwide and "White Flag" also running strong on Hot AC.

I'd say it's officially over for Black Eyed Peas "Shut Up" and Liz Phair's "Why Can't I?" is getting old, not to mention she is losing significant spins at Hot AC.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[singingsparrow]

ExActLy99 said:

It is a little early to start a new topic, but why all of the sudden has Simple Plan just blew up, bullet approaching +700! A lot of competition this week between 15-18, Matchbox Twenty also now nearing +300 again! I don't think Liz Phair will pass them. Britney's gains are back up and she could make Top 10 by the end of the week with the way Nelly is falling. "Get Low" looks to be about done. Outkast will make #4 this week and #3 next week! 9/10 of the songs in the 20's are bulleted and are within 1000 spins of eachother, Michelle Branch will hopefully make Top 20, only if Christina Aguilera doesn't get there first.

I too have no idea why "Perfect" is gaining rapidly. Their album is pretty much through in sales, and I imagine this hefty gain is only going to hurt them more, as they are bound to experience Good Charlottesque losses ranging from -800 to -1200.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[FreakyFlyBry]

Why is Nelly Furtado flopping? :'( She deserves much better, top 20 at least!

[JCMF3]

FreakyFlyBry said:

Why is Nelly Furtado flopping? :'( She deserves much better, top 20 at least!

I completely agree. This is just another bad decision by pop MDs! >:(

[BigD]

I like Nelly Furtado, but I just don't think that "Powerless" is super pop-friendly. I'd like to see the song do better anyway. It's the type of song that could struggle for awhile but eventually make the top 20, a la Liz Phair.

I'd like Simple Plan to slow down. That song is so played out already, at least in my mind.

I hope Dido's bullet keeps getting bigger!

[Mega248]

Luckily for Nelly Furtado, there is no competition around her and she should easily move 35-31 next week, even if she loses her bullet.

I guess if Simple Pain HAS to have a top 10, this would be the one I'd choose.

[irice22]

I hope Furtado can pick back up! Hopefully she'll have a run like Liz Phair. Although, I think more promotion could have went into this song.

[kingLUKE22]

What exactly is the deal with the resurgence in gains for Britney and Madonna? I thought everyone was pretty sure it was peaking at #13, and rightly so with a rapid gain decrease. Radio is weird.

[allow that]

kingLUKE22 said:

What exactly is the deal with the resurgence in gains for Britney and Madonna? I thought everyone was pretty sure it was peaking at #13, and rightly slow with a rapid gain decrease. Radio is weird.

My guess is that since radio went crazy when it first came out, the hype wore off fast and it looked like it was in real danger already. Now that the initial hype has been gone for a while, the song is stabilizing and will probably grow at a more slow but steady pace for at least another couple weeks.

[radiorules]

You guys, the only reason the song gained so much yesterday was because of spins from AT40 and Ricky Dees it didn't really have a resurgence, today it only moved up 10 spins.

[FreakyFlyBry]

radiorules said:

You guys, the only reason the song gained so much yesterday was because of spins from AT40 and Ricky Dees it didn't really have a resurgence, today it only moved up 10 spins.

Both Casey and Rick played "Me Against The Music" the week before too, so your theory is invalid.

[Eyeball]

"So Far Away" seems to be getting a weird chart run...40-34-28-31-30-31-30(?)-23(?) and it looks like it'll be #27 next week...

[JCMF3]

radiorules said:

You guys, the only reason the song gained so much yesterday was because of spins from AT40 and Ricky Dees it didn't really have a resurgence, today it only moved up 10 spins.

Ah, yet another one to go down in the books...

The resurgence started on FRIDAY of last week. Since then, her gains have been going up from the previous week. So, no Rick and Casey are not THE reason this is happening... You're just pissed that this song might peak higher than you thought with your "sexed up" theory... Give it a rest please...

[EvanJ]

Pink has fallen off the chart. Missy Elliott lost her bullet and based on the current trends she will fall off the chart also. Two rap songs that had bullets in the 51-60 range may not chart. Young Gunz has a backwards bullet. Nelly lost his bullet and has consecutive did not charts with solo songs. Before "Shake Ya Tailfeather," Nelly was the most popular of the three artists on CHR-Pop, but P. Diddy had two hits in 2002 and gets gold airplay from "I'll Be Missing You" and "Mo' Money Mo' Problems." Nelly doesn't have any songs in the gold Top 100. "Ride Wit' Me" hasn't been moved to gold, and I don't know about "Country Grammar." Considering the incomprehensible decision to make "She Hates Me" gold, Nelly could have songs moved to gold any day now. Even "Hot In Herre" and "Dilemma" charted before "She Hates Me."

[TheJakes]

The correct, non-radiorules, theory as to the uneven trjectory of MAtM these last few weeks is that it is being dayparted.

Some pop stations design different playlists for their "at-work" hours and different playlists for their PM drive, evenings, overnights and weekends. I think that is why you see MAtM increase in spins on the weekends and see the gains decrease during the weekdays.

Some PD's clearly do not seem to think MAtM fits their research for "at-work" listening.

[HER MINAJesty]

Sorry Im confused, Nelly's "Iz U" did not chart?

I saw it on the chart just today... ???

And you said this is the second consecutive Nelly solo song to not chart, what was the last one, "Pimp Juice"?

and what does a song going 'gold' mean?

[radiorules]

My theory isn't that off! MATM did pick up a tiny bit of steam on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday when it gained around 30 spins a day, then suddenly on Monday it gained 70 spins a day (which could possibly be from Rick Dees and AT40) and now it's back down to 10 spins.

JCMF3, you have underpredicted every Christina Aguilera song, you don't see me going around and throwing that in your face. It seems as if you are the only one bothered by my posts, everyone moves on except for you.

[singingsparrow]

Both "Hot In Herre" and "Dilemma" should reasonably be gold right now, with "Hot In Heere" going first.

I feel there will be few gold singles for 2003, though "When I'm Gone" should ideally be moved within the next year or two, with "Unwell" and "Bring Me To Life" also likely candidates.

And the way "Where Is The Love?" and "In Da Club" are both losing incredibly slowly down the chart, they likely might make it too quite soon.

"Lose Yourself" should also make it to gold status real soon.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[HER MINAJesty]

Uhh ok thanks for answering my question

[JCMF3]

radiorules said:

JCMF3, you have underpredicted every Christina Aguilera song, you don't see me going around and throwing that in your face. It seems as if you are the only one bothered by my posts, everyone moves on except for you.

Ummm, I am not the only one bothered by the posts. It's just that I am one of the few that doesn't sit back and take your baloney sitting down. I call you on things you say, and you don't like it. Well, that's too bad. If you're going to post something and state it as a fact, then you better be prepared to defend it.

And what do my predictions of Christina's songs have to do with you misstating and/or twisting "facts"? If that is supposed to be some sort of comeback to me, you need to give it up...

[radiorules]

And what do my predictions of Christina's songs have to do with you misstating and/or twisting "facts"? If that is supposed to be some sort of comeback to me, you need to give it up...

JCMF3 said:

You're just pissed that this song might peak higher than you thought with your "sexed up" theory...

[EvanJ]

SingingSparrow said:

I feel there will be few gold singles for 2003, though "When I'm Gone" should ideally be moved within the next year or two, with "Unwell" and "Bring Me To Life" also likely candidates.

What do you think will go gold first, "Bent" or "Unwell"?
Virgo..., Nelly made charts other than CHR-Pop.

[jond7699]

It looks like Beyonce might be able to hold off 3 Doors Down. They are losing about the same amount of spins. It looks like Outkast might jump over FOW. Both of these songs suck imo I can't beleve they are both in the top 5. No wonder I don't listen to the radio anymore. Glad to see Dido still having such healthy gains. Looks like "Get Low" is about to lose it's bullet too. Yeah for Stacy making the top ten hopefully she can manage to stay there by the last update.

[Keith3000]

EvanJ said:

What do you think will go gold first, "Bent" or "Unwell"?

??? Are you talking about a different song? "Bent" went gold a long time ago.

[Cerebro]

Keith3000 said:

??? Are you talking about a different song? "Bent" went gold a long time ago.

Nope. Evan's not mistaken. He's just being sarcastic. And yes, "Bent" is, in fact, still on the recurrent list. Why? We don't know. But I do wish that Mediabase had some fixed recurrent-to-gold rule.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

virgoluvsmusic said:

Sorry Im confused, Nelly's "Iz U" did not chart?

I saw it on the chart just today... ???

And you said this is the second consecutive Nelly solo song to not chart, what was the last one, "Pimp Juice"?

and what does a song going 'gold' mean?

I'll try to answer your question.
I don't think 'Pimp Juice' charted and if it did, his last no-charter was probably 'Batter Up'.

A song going "gold" is the next time-stage to "Recurrent". A song goes from being new to current (imo, anyway) and then it goes "recurrent". R&R's labelling of recurrent is 20 weeks on the chart. From there, it goes "Gold". I don't think it's a time definition that a song goes Gold but more or less a spin-definition. If an old song drops below a certain point.

[Hervard]

They probably just pull song titles out of a hat every two or three times a year. There's no other logical explanation, especially on the A/C chart, where there are several songs on the recurrent list that are older than songs on the "gold" list. This seems to be just like AT20's recurrent rule back when they used a twisted version of the Mediabase chart. Songs like "Cruisin'" and "My Baby You" were bumped off the chart while "Taking You Home" hung around a little longer.

[singingsparrow]

EvanJ said:

What do you think will go gold first, "Bent" or "Unwell"?
Virgo..., Nelly made charts other than CHR-Pop.

I actually think "Unwell" will go gold first. Why "Bent" isn't there, I have no clue, for though it didn't chart as long as "If You're Gone", it is their sole #1 single.

If I'm not mistaking, "Unwell" has had a longer chart run this year on CHR/Pop than any other single.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton