Year End Top 10 Predictions?

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

BEP is already #3 and within 5000 spins I am sure that BEP will have 8-10000 spins by the end of November. I hate BEP's "Where is the love" but judging by the trend it should be #1 of 2003 by the middle of december for sure.

[Matt4319]

Adonis said:

BEP is already #3 and within 5000 spins I am sure that BEP will have 8-10000 spins by the end of November. I hate BEP's "Where is the love" but judging by the trend it should be #1 of 2003 by the middle of december for sure.

The thing is, the 2003 year for R&R ends on November 28.

[Evergreen]

I just have to throw this in here. No matter what the top ten singles are going to be this year, Lady Christina is a lock to be the most played artist on pop radio this year! In both the calender year and the R&R year.

[Keith3000]

I could have sworn that was radiorules...but it wasn't!! Dorr185, did he put you up to this?

[EvanJ]

Dorr is a Christina fan also. Because of when you (Keith) came to R and R, you haven't read as many of his posts as I have.

[Evergreen]

Though I am a Christina fan (I like to think I'm her biggest) I'm not in the same league as radiorules or Listen to Me.

I just think it's a big feat that Christina is likely to have 3 songs finish in the top 20, and no other artist will even have to songs there.

[Crushcrushchris]

Year-end:
1. 3 Doors Down-When I'm Gone
2. Black Eyed Peas-Where is the Love? (Something tells me this will be close)
3. Evanescence-Bring Me to Life
4. 50 Cent-In Da Club
5. Justin-Rock Your Body
6. Matchbox Twenty-Unwell
7. R. Kelly-Ignition
8. Kelly Clarkson-Miss Independent
9. Avril-I'm With You
10. Beyonce-Crazy In Love

R & R Year End
1. 3 Doors Down-When I'm Gone
2. Evanescence-Bring Me to Life(this one's gonna be close too)
3. Black Eyed Peas-Where is the Love?
4. 50 Cent-In Da Club
5. Justin-Rock Your Body
6. R. Kelly-Ignition
7. Matchbox Twenty-Unwell
8. Kelly Clarkson-Miss Independent
9. Avril-I'm With You
10. Jennifer Lopez-All I Have

[af18c]

Cfw828 said:

Year-end:

2. Black Eyed Peas-Where is the Love? (Something tells me this will be close)

R & R Year End
2. Evanescence-Bring Me to Life(this one's gonna be close too)

you do know they're the same chart, R&R just stops in late Nov. right?

[FreakyFlyBry]

af18c said:

you do know they're the same chart, R&R just stops in late Nov. right?

For the first one, I assume he means the Mediabase year-end top 10.

[thisbeautifulmess]

Dorr185 said:

I just think it's a big feat that Christina is likely to have 3 songs finish in the top 20, and no other artist will even have to songs there.

Counting "where is the love", Justin Timberlake will have three.

[ChartKid]

Well the latest update is in and WITL is about 1700 spins behind WIG. If 11/28 is the last chart, next Sunday's update should be the final one since that's when the last update for the 11/28 chart is. BEP should end up roughly 2000 spins ahead of 3DD. Then the December spins come in. Depending how many spins count for 3DD, it should be close.

[radiorules]

I'm sorry but "Where Is The Love" is an uncredited role for Justin Timberlake, it should not count toward his spin totals on the year. Maybe it will come down to Christina and Justin as the most played artists, let's look at their singles

Justin:
Rock Your Body: 159, 323
Cry Me A River: 99, 152 (+8128)=107280
Senorita: 68, 241

Total: 334, 844
Advantages: Like I Love You (Recurrent airplay), The rest of Senorita's chart run, and I'm Loving It

Christina:
Beautiful: 120, 820 (+18, 568) =139, 388
Fighter: 105, 127
Can't Hold Us Down: 97,662

Total: 342, 127
Advantages: Dirrty (Recurrent Airplay) , the rest of CHUD's chart run, and The Voice Within.

The Winner: It's obviously going to be Christina, she already has more spins than Justin and the advantages haven't been added in yet, and plus Christina's advantages are a lot better than Justin's advantages.

Dirrty Recurrent Vs. Like I Love You Recurrent: Justin

The rest of CHUD's chart run vs. the rest of Senorita's chart run: Christina

The Voice Within Vs. I'm Loving It: Christina

and these spins are without the two week break, since we don't know if they count. If they do count, add another 16,000 spins to Christina's spin totals.

[thisbeautifulmess]

radiorules said:

I'm sorry but "Where Is The Love" is an uncredited role for Justin Timberlake, it should not count toward his spin totals on the year.

Well, we can argue forever about this, and I'm not going to budge from my opinion that the song wouldn't have hit top 10 without Justin Timberlake.

But why I posted that is because you had posted that no other artist would even have TWO songs in the top 20.

[JCMF3]

thisbeautifulmess said:

Well, we can argue forever about this, and I'm not going to budge from my opinion that the song wouldn't have hit top 10 without Justin Timberlake.

I completely agree with you on this one. JT helped propel this song to the top of the charts. But, this is off-topic for this forum. I mean, for someone who doesn't agree with or care about year-end charts, radiorules is sure making a big deal of the most played artist of the year.

[ChartKid]

How are we all of a sudden sure about the R&R Year End Chart?

Doesn't WITL still have a shot at being #1 for R&R?

[Keith3000]

ChartKid said:

How are we all of a sudden sure about the R&R Year End Chart?

Doesn't WITL still have a shot at being #1 for R&R?

It probably will be #1 for the 2003 calendar year (ie. January to December).

However, the R&R chart year is from December to November and so "When I'm Gone" will most likely be #1.

[ChartKid]

Heh I've been following year end charts for a while, I know it's Dec-Nov but earlier in this thread we were discussing that WITL is still within range. Then again, we still don't know for SURE which December weeks count so who knows how close they are?

[Matt4319]

ChartKid said:

Heh I've been following year end charts for a while, I know it's Dec-Nov but earlier in this thread we were discussing that WITL is still within range. Then again, we still don't know for SURE which December weeks count so who knows how close they are?

Yeah, exactly. I'm less sure of what will be #1 now than when the topic was made a week ago.

[mst3k]

Alright guys, I emailed Rob Agnoletti (Charts & Music Manager at R&R) and here's what I got. Make of it what you will, although after re-reading his reply a few times I'm not certain if he understood my question the way I meant it:


-----Original Message-----
From: Aaron McCracken
Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2003 8:21 AM
To: (deleted for spam reasons)
Subject: Yearend chart question


Hello, and sorry to bother you, but...

I post on a music message board, and several
chartwatchers (including myself) are having a debate
regarding R&R's yearend charts. Namely, do the
play-totals for the two unpublished chart weeks count
toward the yearend chart? We know Mediabase monitors
during those two weeks, but since there's no
"official" weekly chart using those weeks' data, we
didn't know whether it would be included toward the
December-November totals used by R&R's yearend chart.

Again, sorry to bug you (I know you guys are busy
there), but any info would be appreciated. :)

Thanks,
Aaron McCracken
Clearwater, FL

***

Aaron,

No, those two weeks of the year don't count towards the year end
totals.
This year's (2003) will end on the week of Nov. 24. That is the last
chart
week of the year 2003. Dec. 1st starts the next year (2004).

Hope that answers your question.
~Rob

[mst3k]

Okay... based on this response, looks like BEP have a serious shot at #1 for the year.

-----Original Message-----
From: Aaron McCracken
Sent: Monday, November 17, 2003 1:21 PM
To: (no spam!!)
Subject: RE: Yearend chart question


Hi Rob,

Thanks for your quick reply... just to clarify, I was
referring to whether the last two (unpublished)
calendar weeks of 2002 would count toward the 2003
yearend chart? Sorry again for all the questions...
it's just been a rather heated topic on the boards.

Thanks,
Aaron

***

From: "Rob Agnoletti"
To: "Aaron McCracken"
Subject: RE: Yearend chart question
Date: Mon, 17 Nov 2003 13:33:15 -0800

Yes, last three weeks of the 2002 do count towards the yearend of 2003.
That
is the first three weeks actually of the new chart year. That would be
week
of Nov. 30, Dec. 7 2002 and Dec. 14th 2002 (last year), which would be
the
last one for the calender year 2002, counting towards 2003. Hope that
makes
sense. Sorry.

[ChartKid]

How does that last reply show that BEP will be #1 for the year? Isn't he saying those weeks DO count for the 2003 Year End Chart? Or am I just confusing myself? He said Nov 30, Dec 7, and Dec 14 all count for 2003. Right?

[ChartKid]

Oh crap you must be inferring that the December 21st and 28th charts DON'T count. Shit! :(

[mst3k]

ChartKid said:

Oh crap you must be inferring that the December 21st and 28th charts DON'T count. s**t! :(

Yep... so if that's true, it could hurt 3 Doors Down just enough to let BEP slide past them.

[ChartKid]

Well on the last YTD update BEP was 1700 spins behind,
now they're about 2700 spins ahead on the current chart losing more than 200 spins compared to yesterday so i figure they'll be ABOUT 1000 spins ahead by the last YTD update. So does 3DD have around 1000 combined spins for the 11/30, 12/7, and 12/14 charts? Ugh I wish I didn't take this so seriously, I'm starting to get sick over it being so nervous.

[Mega248]

ChartKid said:

Well on the last YTD update BEP was 1700 spins behind,
now they're about 2700 spins ahead on the current chart losing more than 200 spins compared to yesterday so i figure they'll be ABOUT 1000 spins ahead by the last YTD update. So does 3DD have around 1000 combined spins for the 11/30, 12/7, and 12/14 charts? Ugh I wish I didn't take this so seriously, I'm starting to get sick over it being so nervous.

If you're asking what I think you are, yes, 3DD will easily have over 1000 spins combined for those three weeks. They're still getting over 900 spins per week.

[JCMF3]

EDIT:
Looks like things are not 100% concrete!

Here's how I understand it:

1) The last chart for the 2003 chart year is 11/29/03 ("end on the week of Nov. 24th").

2) The two frozen weeks WILL NOT COUNT toward total spins. That would be the 12/27/02 and 1/3/03 charts (based on the dates given in the e-mail).

3) The 2004 chart year will begin with the 12/5/03 chart.

[Matt4319]

Okay, my interpretations of this:

Rob said:

Aaron,

No, those two weeks of the year don't count towards the year end totals. This year's (2003) will end on the week of Nov. 24. That is the last chart week of the year 2003. Dec. 1st starts the next year (2004).

It seems like he's saying that November 24 (a Monday) is the beginning of the last week, i.e. the week that ends on November 30 (Sunday), which translates to the chart date of December 5, 2003. The day after November 30 is December 1 (a Monday again), which will start the 2004 year.

Rob said:

Yes, last three weeks of the 2002 do count towards the yearend of 2003. That is the first three weeks actually of the new chart year. That would be week of Nov. 30, Dec. 7 2002 and Dec. 14th 2002 (last year), which would be the last one for the calender year 2002, counting towards 2003. Hope that
makes sense. Sorry.

The last three weeks of 2002 (i.e., not including the two chartless weeks) are December 6, December 13, and December 20. The dates he's referring to in the reply above are the Saturdays before the Friday R&R chart dates I just repeated. We know that the 2003 chart year started on either December 6 or December 13, so I don't think he's referring to November 29 as the first week of the 2003 chart year.

So it seems like the following weeks are counted...

December 6, 2002
December 13, 2002
December 20, 2002
December 27, 2002
January 3, 2003
January 10, 2003
...
November 28, 2003
December 5, 2003

I could be way wrong though.

[ChartKid]

I always thought that the last week of November was the final Chart for that year. So shouldn't the 11/23 Sunday Night update be the final one? I asked Ron about that and he said yes, as long as 11/28 was the last chart. It should be the last chart. Now that that guy said the week of 11/24, I'm all screwed up now.

[Dan G.]

Black Eyed Peas are less than 1,700 spins behind, not counting last December, but even so, they may be able to make up the gap in the next two weeks. I still think they're going to grab number one.

--DanG

[jond7699]

Oh I pray that 3DD can come out on top this year. I don't mind BEP's "Where Is The Love" but there is no way that song should be #1 for 2003