Year End Top 10 Predictions?

[Matt4319]

radiorules said:

Ever since last years 2002 year end chart everyone was talking about how the two week breaks are always counted, now all of a sudden it is being questioned whether or not they count. Give Me A Break! I even remember some debates that if the two week break didn't count then "Complicated" could have gotten #1 on the year end chart instead of "How You Remind Me".

It would have been "In the End" instead of "Complicated", I think.

[JCMF3]

radiorules said:

JCMF3, what i posted was not non sense. You seem to be so biased against my posts simply because they are by me, and i have had enough of that.

Part of that is true, but it is because you spew things that I just cannot stand. If you posted things in a clearer, non-biased manner, you wouldn't be attacked as much. Trust me, my life does not revolve around attack radiorules' posts.

Ever since last years 2002 year end chart everyone was talking about how the two week breaks are always counted, now all of a sudden it is being questioned whether or not they count. Give Me A Break! I even remember some debates that if the two week break didn't count then "Complicated" could have gotten #1 on the year end chart instead of "How You Remind Me".

I don't recall this debate before, but if others do, then I will concede that it happened. It is strange that no one else seems to recall this, however. It would have saved us a lot of posts.

And i don't even understand why you wouldn't want those weeks counted, that's simply not fair at all! Songs don't just freeze when they enter that two week break, they are still played, they still grow (or fall) and they are still heard by millions of people! Not to count them would be silly! I don't know about R & R but Mediabase will count those 2 weeks, and R & R gets their info from mediabase.

It's not that I wish they were not counted. Here's my reasoning: R&R officially freezes their chart for two weeks in December. During these two weeks, there are no chart updates made by R&R. That means that songs that gain spins and achieve new peaks do not get that counted. Also, the #1 song does not earn more weeks at #1 during these two weeks. Also, the "weeks on" does not change for these two weeks. In effect, songs on the chart at the end of December earn an extra two weeks "for free". That to me is unfair, and the logical thing to do (in my mind) is that we just completely wash those weeks from the chart year. That way, we do not bias the chart in that way.

So my logic is that if we don't keep these statistics on songs for those two weeks, why should we keep spin totals and count them toward a year-end total? I must be in the minority here though because not many other people agree with this line of thought.

We can debate whether the chart should or should not be frozen for two weeks, but that is another topic entirely. We know that the chart is frozen for two weeks. To me, that would mean we completely ignore those spins.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I think it would be unfair to not count those weeks. The purpose of a yearend chart is to count every week or the year (although a yearend chart also respresents the end of the year and the year in whole so Dec-Nov is still a weird thing for me to grasp but anyway...). I also think that R&R should either make charts for those two weeks, count the weeks between those two charts (count them as frozen weeks and include that time in with recurrent rules and whatnot) or change the heading of the column from "Weeks On" to "Charts On" and make that explicitly clear.

[Keith3000]

I also agree that charts should be produced for those two weeks and should definitely be considered when compiling the year-end chart. Can anyone tell me why those charts are not produced during those two weeks? I can understand not having those charts on the countdown shows so that the year-end chart can be aired, but in the magazine, both charts can be featured.

In fact, I feel that the year-end chart should be featured in the year's final issue of R&R, and should include all weeks from January till December, including that week's chart, so that the chart year matches the calendar year. I still don't quite understand why this isn't done; it seems to make much more sense to me.

[radiorules]

Matt4319 said:

It would have been "In the End" instead of "Complicated", I think.

Whoops! That's what it was. I remember people talking about how "In The End" Would've been #1 but the 2 week break favored "How You Remind Me".

[ChartKid]

I E-mailed R&R on 2 occasions about which weeks get counted in December and nobody responded.

Whatever, I just want WIG to be #1 for the year over Black Eyed Peas. I'm still not convinced though.

[Mega248]

EHL18: Ron?
siriusradiopr: Hey
EHL18: for the year end charts, is the airplay from the two unpublished R&R weeks counted?
siriusradiopr: It didn't used to be, but I'm not sure if it changed when we went to pure Mediabase.
siriusradiopr: we never counted it before because we didn't gather that information for those two weeks. Not to mention airplay patters are totally skewed over the holidays.
EHL18: oh ok
siriusradiopr: One thing for sure, the record industry didn't care what we did with those two weeks, even for their No. 1 songs.

[Matt4319]

That sounds more like a no.

Which chart weeks didn't have a published chart in R&R?

[thisbeautifulmess]

Here's my take:

1) Two chart-less weeks: why wouldn't airplay for these two weeks be counted? Just because they have a "holiday break" and don't issue an "official" chart doesn't mean songs weren't being played!

2) Whether 12/6 counts: why are we even back to this issue? I thought this had been resolved! As I know I posted in another thread, just look back through the chartpack and find a year with similar dates, and see how they treated it that year! I don't have those year-end charts in front of me, so I can't repost what I posted the first time. Someone else will have to post that. But do you know what's even easier- simply look at the 2002 year-end chart! SO SOMEONE WITH THE 2002 YEAR-END CHART PLEASE LOOK AT IT AND POST THE FINAL WEEK THAT WAS INCLUDED ON THAT CHART!!!

[thisbeautifulmess]

Note that my last post was before the previous two posts had come through on the system

[JCMF3]

Thanks for getting that response. So, looks like this whole example of HYRM and In The End was moot because those two weeks did not count for Nickelback whatsoever as Ron stated. i am very happy that someone finally got some legitimate answers instead of us just sitting here, speculating and spewing some nonsense facts...

I also don't understand why everyone is debating counting or not counting the charts in this thread. This is an interesting topic of debate, but it really is out of place here. I mean, the purpose of this topic is to find out IF they are counted, not whether or not they SHOULD be counted.

Now we will see what happens this year with this chart as Ron eluded to. My guess is that since R&R had the two week break this chart year, they will follow the same rules as before. It only makes sense to stick with the same rules. But who knows...

[ChartKid]

Darn, so WITL has a really good shot at beating 3DD then, right? This sucks. I can't believe how this song came out of nowhere to get this. It seems they have a much better shot than WIG now.

[Hervard]

At least Casey Kasem does count those weeks when he mentions how long a song has been on the charts (usually when talking about the oldest song on the chart).

[Matt4319]

Matt4319 said:

That sounds more like a no.

Which chart weeks didn't have a published chart in R&R?

12/27/02 and 01/03/03, right?

It's also worth mentioning that we should be checking the year-to-date page every day to see when the totals update. It seems that the "November" totals right now account for one week of airplay, since they are pretty close to what the current weekly totals are.

[Matt4319]

Refiguring now, assuming that R&R's policy didn't change when they went to Mediabase and that the two chartless weeks don't count:

When I'm Gone:
166861 (Jan-current)
+__800 (est. 12/6/02 total)
+__915 (12/13/02 total)
+_1056 (12/20/02 total)
+__600 (12/29-12/31 estimation -- this airplay is accounted for on the 1/10/03 chart but isn't accounted for on the Mediabase YTD totals)
170232

Bring Me to Life:
164766 (Jan-current)
+____0 (Any December spins that account in the totals)
164766

Where Is the Love:
162161 (Jan-current)
+____0 (Any December spins that account in the totals)
162161

I'm With You:
146601 (Jan-current)
+_2600 (est. 12/6/02 total)
+_3670 (12/13/02 total)
+_4654 (12/20/02 total)
+_2785 (12/29-12/31 estimation -- this airplay is accounted for on the 1/10/03 chart but isn't accounted for on the Mediabase YTD totals)
160310

[radiorules]

Mega248 said:

EHL18: Ron?
siriusradiopr: Hey
EHL18: for the year end charts, is the airplay from the two unpublished R&R weeks counted?
siriusradiopr: It didn't used to be, but I'm not sure if it changed when we went to pure Mediabase.
siriusradiopr: we never counted it before because we didn't gather that information for those two weeks. Not to mention airplay patters are totally skewed over the holidays.
EHL18: oh ok
siriusradiopr: One thing for sure, the record industry didn't care what we did with those two weeks, even for their No. 1 songs.

Their is your answer, they never used to, but they aren't sure if it counts after they got their info from mediabase, and last year they did get their info from mediabase. That was more like a yes rather than a no. I am saying that MEDIABASE counts the two week break, don't know/don't care about R & R.

[Matt4319]

radiorules said:

Their is your answer, they never used to, but they aren't sure if it counts after they got their info from mediabase, and last year they did get their info from mediabase. That was more like a yes rather than a no. I am saying that MEDIABASE counts the two week break, don't know/don't care about R & R.

Um... you SHOULD care about R&R, since they are the ones that put out the year-end chart, not Mediabase.

[radiorules]

BUT Mediabase updated their charts everyday durring the 2 week break, they never stopped like how R & R did. So therefore, my theory is, if Mediabase does have a record of the spins that occured durring that 2 week break, then they will add it into the year end chart, which is a source for R & R (who looks like they don't care if the two week break gets counted or not).

[Mega248]

radiorules said:

BUT Mediabase updated their charts everyday durring the 2 week break, they never stopped like how R & R did. So therefore, my theory is, if Mediabase does have a record of the spins that occured durring that 2 week break, then they will add it into the year end chart, which is a source for R & R (who looks like they don't care if the two week break gets counted or not).

If Mediabase simply ships the data off to "the clueless R&R" and nothing more, then explain why last week Mediabase went by R&R's incorrect WOC data for Chingy and Lumidee and sent them off to recurrent early. Those two songs being prematurely removed all but proves that Mediabase goes by R&R's data and not their own.

[radiorules]

Okay, maybe this will help you guys. Currently mediabase has the Year End To Date Chart up, Here are the spins for "Beautiful" and "I'm With You" (the two songs we will be using as the examples) in the month of January according to Mediabase

Beautiful-37901
I'm With You-34936

Now, since many of you claim that Mediabase/R & R will not count the two week break, that would mean that the first official chart week that Mediabase began counting spins for in January was on 1/10/03

Beautiful's January Spins:
01/10 7952
01/17 8937
01/24 9118
01/31 9016

Total: 35,023! Currenty Mediabase has listed 37,901 for "Beautiful" in the month of January, where did these 2,878 extra spins come from? It must be from the two week break, when half of the second week (January 1st, 2nd, and 3rd) went into January, and durring those 3 days "Beautiful" got 2,878 spins.

There's is proof #1, now lets do proof #2.

I'm With You's January Spins:
01/10 6113
01/17 7602
01/24 8519
01/31 8904

Total: 31138! Mediabase currently has 34,936 spins listed in the month of January for "I'm With You", where did these 3,798 extra spins come from? It must've been from the 2 week break, which went into January 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and appearantly, durring those 3 days "I'm With You" got 3,798 spins.

You don't have to take the above theories seriously, but this is the best i could offer you with. If those extra spins did not come from the 2 week break, someone needs to explain to me from where they came from.

[JCMF3]

radiorules, the charts for the two-week break are 12/27 anbd 1/3. But that means that the spins from two weeks before will not count. For example, the chart that would be dated 12/27 counts radio airplay from 12/15 - 12/21, and the 1/3 chart would count airplay from 12/22 - 12/28. There is a 3 day window between Dec and January there, and the missing numbers that are listed on Mediabase may be from those three days.

And just because Mediabase counts those spins does not mean that R&R will... we are not sure because for last year's year-end chart R&R was not "pure Mediabase" and now that are (as per Ron's post). I don't understand how you interpret that Ron is saying that the two-week break did count last year. Last year, he was working there and his reply indicates that while he was working there, the two weeks did not count. But this year, R&R has fully turned to Mediabase, and so yes there may be differences.

[thisbeautifulmess]

The thing that doesn't make sense in that above January analysis is how would IWY have more spins than beautiful during that time period?

I do agree with radiorules' overall logic regarding those two missing weeks. If R&R doesn't count them, then they are a bunch of idiots. Then again, their 3 recent recurrent screwups proves that they are.

And I don't know why you guys are taking Ron's response as "fact". It seems obvious to me that he has no idea what's being included now that mediabase is involved. How can you use his response to conclude that the 2001 holiday weeks weren't included in the 2002 year-end chart, or that the 2002 holiday weeks won't be included in 2003's?

[mst3k]

radiorules said:

That was more like a yes rather than a no.

Actually, it was more like an "I don't know" than either a yes or a no. The truth is, we still don't have confirmation either way.

Edit: Well, thisbeautifulmess said it before I did.

[ChartKid]

So with this information we have now, does anyone think the Black Eyed Peas have the best shot at being #1 for the year?

[EvanJ]

ChartKid said:

So with this information we have now, does anyone think the Black Eyed Peas have the best shot at being #1 for the year?

Given the gap in spins for the year and spins this week, I predict "Where Is The Love?" will be Number 1 if the break doesn't count. It can't afford to be -500 to -1,000 though.
When was the last time (if ever) a rap song was Number 1 for the year?

[ChartKid]

Ugh I really hope that BEP shit doesn't end up #1 over 3DD. This would ruin my whole Christmas. :(

[Cerebro]

EvanJ said:

When was the last time (if ever) a rap song was Number 1 for the year?

Never. Though, if BEP succeeds, it'll be the first time in 6 years that a non-rock act lands the top spot. The rock trend would continue if 3DD or Evanescence take it.

(I love having lists like this handy )

RADIO & RECORDS YEAR-END NUMBER ONES:

1975 - Love Will Keep Us Together - The Captain and Tennille
1976 - If You Leave Me Now - Chicago
1977 - You Light Up My Life - Debby Boone
1978 - Night Fever - Bee Gees
1979 - Do Ya Think I'm Sexy? - Rod Stewart
1980 - Call Me - Blondie
1981 - Bette Davis Eyes - Kim Carnes
1982 - Open Arms - Journey
1983 - Every Breath You Take - The Police
1984 - Jump - Van Halen
1985 - Crazy For You - Madonna
1986 - Stuck With You - Huey Lewis and the News
1987 - I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Who Loves Me) - Whitney Houston
1988 - Get Outta My Dreams, Get Into My Car - Billy Ocean
1989 - Miss You Much - Janet Jackson
1990 - Vision Of Love - Mariah Carey
1991 - (Everything I Do) I Do It For You - Bryan Adams
1992 - End Of The Road - Boyz II Men
1993 - Dreamlover - Mariah Carey
1994 - The Sign - Ace Of Base*
1995 - I Know - Dionne Farris
1996 - Missing - Everything But The Girl
1997 - You Were Meant For Me - Jewel
1998 - Iris - Goo Goo Dolls
1999 - Every Morning - Sugar Ray
2000 - Everything You Want - Vertical Horizon
2001 - Hanging By A Moment - Lifehouse
2002 - How You Remind Me - Nickelback

*For this year, R&R only published a year-end chart combining Pop and Rhythmic data, thus the magazine officially lists "I'll Make Love II You - Boyz II Men" as the top song of 1994

[af18c]

I hope BEP can grab it...im so sick of 3DD.

[JCMF3]

If BEP makes it, will it be one of the few songs that is (might) still on the last chart of the chart year? I know Iris was still on the chart in December 1998...

[Keith3000]

JCMF3 said:

If BEP makes it, will it be one of the few songs that is (might) still on the last chart of the chart year? I know Iris was still on the chart in December 1998...

You're right, it would be. It's pretty unlikely the song will go recurrent before the chart year is done.

Just my opinion, but I hope 3DD end up making #1 for the year. Besides the fact that I like "When I'm Gone" more than "Where Is The Love", I kind of want this trend of a rock year-end #1 to continue. Hopefully. Evanescene will be #2. If December spins are considered, even without the final two weeks, I really don't see BEP topping the year-end chart.