Year End Top 10 Predictions?

[Keith3000]

The main thing is that "When I'm Gone" really didn't get many spins last December on pop radio. I guess we're pretty certain now that "Where Is The Love" will be #1 for the 2003 calendar year and "When I'm Gone" #2. It seems to me that if WIG does top the R&R year end chart, it would be more because of the abscence of BEP's December 2003 spins, rather than the extra 3DD spins which are considered from last year.

However, it seems that even without considering next months spins, BEP may still go ahead of 3DD. The thing is, even if the first 3 weeks of last December are considered, it may hardly make a difference to 3DD if "Where Is The Love" gain over 7000 spins between now and the end of the month.

If anything, the final two weeks of last year would give 3DD an advantage, but even this would probably be mediocre. Matt, you had posted in the other thread that the December spins for WIG were 4,424, considering 3 weeks in that month (I assume the first 3 weeks). That would put their current total to 172,229---currently 6117 spins ahead of "Where Is The Love". WITL is now getting a little more than 3,000 spins per week, though the airplay figures are dropping with each day.

Damn, I didn't realize it before, but this race will be close.

[JCMF3]

Keith3000 said:

If anything, the final two weeks of last year would give 3DD an advantage, but even this would probably be mediocre. Matt, you had posted in the other thread that the December spins for WIG were 4,424, considering 3 weeks in that month (I assume the first 3 weeks). That would put their current total to 172,229---currently 6117 spins ahead of "Where Is The Love". WITL is now getting a little more than 3,000 spins per week, though the airplay figures are dropping with each day.

That total seems like a lot only because according to the chart archives, WIG did not make a top 40 debut until 1/10/03. Unless the 41-50 range was really strong during that period, 4424 spins is a lot for 3 weeks. I'm not sayin g that Matt is wrong, but it is quite a bit of spins...

[Matt4319]

Here are the spins for "When I'm Gone" during the weeks that are counted:

12/06/03: 800 (estimated)
12/13/03: 915
12/20/03: 1056

These are the "break" weeks that are not counted:

12/27/03: 1210
01/03/03: 1243

As I said before, the week of January 3, 2003 covers airplay from December 22-28, 2002.

Now I'm not sure if Mediabase's totals for each month (I'll use the month of March 2003) cover:

(a) Airplay from March 1-31, 2003 or
(b) Airplay from the charts of March 7, 14, 21, and 28, 2003

If it's (a), there are an extra 3 days not counted, during which time "WIG" got about 600 spins. If it's (b), we'd need to take off the first week of January's spins from "WIG"'s total on Mediabase, since it counts the chart of January 3.

I have no idea on how to contact Mediabase, but it might be a good idea to figure out how to do so, for us to ask them where the year-to-date monthly totals come from.

[ChartKid]

Well if all year end stats come to a close this Sunday night, the final update for the 11/28 chart, WIG should easily come out on top. However, I'm confused about that response in that E-Mail. Mst, can you E-Mail when the final chart for 2003 is? r at least give me his E-Mail address? I E-Mailed R&R on more than 1 occasion but got no response. 11/28 should be the last chart, and therefore the final update comes 11/23.

[Keith3000]

ChartKid said:

Well if all year end stats come to a close this Sunday night, the final update for the 11/28 chart, WIG should easily come out on top.

I didn't realize this coming Sunday's final update would be the year's final chart; I was under the impression there'd be one more week. Yes, if it is, then "When I'm Gone" is much more likely to reach #1, but it's still not certain. For the calendar year, WITL will probably gain another 3000 or so spins this week, putting BEP ahead of 3DD. For the chart year, it will still be very close; it will really depend on whether 3DD's December airplay will be sufficient to overtake BEP. In the end, the difference may be as small as 500 spins.

[ChartKid]

I don't care about the calendar year. I only want Dec-Nov because that is the show i will be hearing on the radio, and the official R&R Year End Chart. 3DD has about 2700 spins from December. If next week's chart is the last, 3DD should get it. If not well...I'd rather not think about it.

[Keith3000]

Let's just hope that 3DD pull it off. Many might disagree, but I think "When I'm Gone" is a lot more deserving of the year's #1 song, (though, of course, it will depend on chart data, not who deserves it more.)

[ChartKid]

Well on the latest YTD Update, WITL is #1 by 605 spins. Tonight is the final update for the 11/28 chart, which is the last of 2003, right? Is there still time for BEP to get #1, or is it just about over? If I remember, they had about 2000 spins to make up.

[Keith3000]

If this is the last chart for the 2003 R&R year, then it seems as if 3 Doors Down have maintained the #1 song of the year. Their total since January is 168,726 spins and if you add the December spins (I'm assuming the figure of 4,424 that Matt had posted is correct), their total comes to 173,150 beating Black Eyed Peas by 3,819 spins.

Judging by the spin losses of "Where Is The Love", chances are that even if we include next week's spin totals, "When I'm Gone" will still be #1, as BEP won't even get 3,000 spins this next week.

[ChartKid]

Well actually, it isn't 4424, it's only over 2700. However, that shouldn't make a big difference. If there is one more week left, 3DD still should be able to hold on. It would still be close, but I think 11/28 is the last week anyway.

[Matt4319]

So the YTD chart updated this morning?

How can the chart as it is now reflect spins from the week of 11/28 when that week hasn't even concluded yet?

[ChartKid]

Anyone care to guess what #100 will be?

[FreakyFlyBry]

ChartKid said:

Anyone care to guess what #100 will be?

*takes random guess*

Something that peaked in the middle of the chart, and didn't last long enough to go recurrent, but not a flash in the pan... I'll say it'll be Smilez and Southstar "Tell Me".

[Matt4319]

Matt4319 said:

So the YTD chart updated this morning?

How can the chart as it is now reflect spins from the week of 11/28 when that week hasn't even concluded yet?

Yeah, my question still stands.

[ChartKid]

Well can someone please find out if 11/28 IS actually the last chart for 2003? I kept E-Mailing R&R and got nothing back. So can whoever that was that actually DID get a response try E-Mailing that guy again to find out if 11/28 is the last week? Thanks..

[mst3k]

Nah, I like surprises. ;)

[Keith3000]

Even if it was the last week of the chart year, why was the year-to-date chart updated before that week's final update on Sunday night? Isn't the year-to-date chart updated only after the final weekly update? In any case, was the chart updated again after Sunday night's final update (not that it would make a difference to the chart)?

In any case, whether we're done with the 2003 chart year or not, the year-to-date chart will go on updating till the end of December because it goes by the calender year, not the R&R chart year.

[EvanJ]

What are the dates that the American Top 40 and Rick Dees year-end countdowns will be broadcasted? The chart released 41 days from now and dated 43 says from now will be the first chart including 2004 airplay only, but if there are local and/or national year-end countdowns on for a whole week like Z100 does, it would take a week after that for the current spins to be up to normal.
What day will the year-end charts be released?

[Cerebro]

EvanJ said:

What are the dates that the American Top 40 and Rick Dees year-end countdowns will be broadcasted?

Given past trends, I'd say the weekends of 12/27 and 1/3.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Usually it's exactly 50 weeks in between the last yearend chart (unless the year has 53 weekends in it). So I think it kinda depends on when last year's chart was. I'll be taping it off fo sho!

[ChartKid]

mst3k1 said:

Nah, I like surprises. ;)

Ok then how about giving me his E-Mail Address so I can write him then I'll keep the answer to myself?

And Keith, we all know that the Mediabase YTD will keep updating. Plus, Matt already asked that question about why they update it Sunday morning instead of Sunday night, which nobody knows the answer to. It's not like it would make much of a difference if it were updated Sunday night. One day wouldn't make much of a difference.

[billcs]

Keith3000 said:

For the year-to-date chart so far (Jan '03 to present):

www.mmr247.com/mmrweb/AllAccess/YTDCharts.asp?format=h1R

The year-end chart used by R&R, AT40, and Rick Dees considers spins from Dec '02 till the end of Nov '03 I think. Anyone have spin totals for last December?

I guess 3DD are sure to have the #1 song of the year, but the runner-up could be either Avril Lavigne or Evanescence, with the next song being either 50 Cent or Black Eyed Peas. Chart postions for songs like "Beautiful", "I'm With You", and "Lose Yourself" will definitely be higher if December spins are taken into consideration; songs like "Where Is The Love", "Crazy In Love", and "Shake Ya Tailfeather" will score lower if December spins are counted. (In both cases, though, the latter song mentioned would not be in the Top 10.) And JCMF3 is right---chances are either "All I Have" or "Beautiful" will make Top 10, but not both.

A pretty sad looking year end chart if you ask me. J-Lo at #10 (!!).

[ChartKid]

Ok well I E-Mailed that dude and he confirmed that the 11/28 Chart was infact the last one that counts for 2003.

[Dan G.]

Too bad. That means 3 Doors Down has number one of the year. One more week & Black Eyed Peas probably would've grabbed it.

[Matt4319]

DanG82 said:

Too bad. That means 3 Doors Down has number one of the year. One more week & Black Eyed Peas probably would've grabbed it.

No, that's GOOD.

[Matt4319]

Early update on the 2004 year-end chart:

TW Artist Title Spins
1 OUTKAST Hey Ya 8794
2 3 DOORS DOWN Here Without You 8131
3 BABY BASH Suga Suga 7116
4 BEYONCE Baby Boy f/Sean Paul 6800
5 TRAPT Headstrong 5593
6 STACIE ORRICO (There's Gotta Be)Mo... 5188
7 SANTANA Why Don't You & I 5091
8 NO DOUBT It's My Life 5072
9 SIMPLE PLAN Perfect 4853
10 FOUNTAINS OF WAYNE Stacy's Mom 4669
11 NICKELBACK Someday 4634
12 MAROON 5 Harder To Breathe 4339
13 LIL JON/EASTSIDEBOYS Get Low 4262
14 LIZ PHAIR Why Can't I 4116
15 NELLY/P. DIDDY/MURPHY LEE Shake Ya Tailfeather 3875
16 CHRISTINA AGUILERA The Voice Within 3804
17 MATCHBOX TWENTY Bright Lights 3793
18 CLAY AIKEN Invisible 3671
19 CHINGY Holidae In (f/Ludacr... 3638
20 LUDACRIS Stand Up 3595
21 BRITNEY SPEARS Me Against The Music 3490
22 MICHELLE BRANCH Breathe 3428
23 STAIND So Far Away 2909
24 OUTKAST The Way You Move 2362
25 FEFE DOBSON Take Me Away 2351
26 JESSICA SIMPSON With You 2208
27 ENRIQUE IGLESIAS Addicted 1941
28 KELIS Milkshake 1890
29 DIDO White Flag 1885
30 FUEL Falls On Me 1791
31 BUBBA SPARXXX Deliverance 1717
32 NELLY FURTADO Powerless (Say What ... 1519
33 EAMON F**k It (I Don't Wan... 1452
34 LINKIN PARK Numb 1231
35 HILARY DUFF So Yesterday 1215
36 PINK God Is A DJ 1193
37 50 CENT P.I.M.P. 1161
38 MYA My Love Is Like...Wo 1126
39 SHERYL CROW First Cut Is The Dee... 1060
40 BEYONCE Me, Myself, And I 1033
41 KELLY CLARKSON Trouble With Love Is 1021
42 KELLY CLARKSON Low 1020
43 JAY-Z Change Clothes 986
44 JOHN MAYER Bigger Than My Body 969
45 GOOD CHARLOTTE Hold On 941
46 WILLA FORD A Toast To Men (f/Ma... 844
47 KILEY DEAN Who Will I Run To? 832
48 YOUNGBLOODZ Damn! (f/Lil Jon) 825
49 BLACK EYED PEAS Shut Up 819
50 DASHBOARD CONFESSIONAL Hands Down 818

Sorry, I couldn't resist. ;)

[af18c]

Wow, already?? HAHA...

[mst3k]

Matt4319 said:

Early update on the 2004 year-end chart:

TW Artist Title Spins
1 OUTKAST Hey Ya 8794
2 3 DOORS DOWN Here Without You 8131
3 BABY BASH Suga Suga 7116
4 BEYONCE Baby Boy f/Sean Paul 6800
5 TRAPT Headstrong 5593
6 STACIE ORRICO (There's Gotta Be)Mo... 5188
7 SANTANA Why Don't You & I 5091
8 NO DOUBT It's My Life 5072
9 SIMPLE PLAN Perfect 4853
10 FOUNTAINS OF WAYNE Stacy's Mom 4669
11 NICKELBACK Someday 4634
12 MAROON 5 Harder To Breathe 4339
13 LIL JON/EASTSIDEBOYS Get Low 4262
14 LIZ PHAIR Why Can't I 4116
15 NELLY/P. DIDDY/MURPHY LEE Shake Ya Tailfeather 3875
16 CHRISTINA AGUILERA The Voice Within 3804
17 MATCHBOX TWENTY Bright Lights 3793
18 CLAY AIKEN Invisible 3671
19 CHINGY Holidae In (f/Ludacr... 3638
20 LUDACRIS Stand Up 3595
21 BRITNEY SPEARS Me Against The Music 3490
22 MICHELLE BRANCH Breathe 3428
23 STAIND So Far Away 2909
24 OUTKAST The Way You Move 2362
25 FEFE DOBSON Take Me Away 2351
26 JESSICA SIMPSON With You 2208
27 ENRIQUE IGLESIAS Addicted 1941
28 KELIS Milkshake 1890
29 DIDO White Flag 1885
30 FUEL Falls On Me 1791
31 BUBBA SPARXXX Deliverance 1717
32 NELLY FURTADO Powerless (Say What ... 1519
33 EAMON F**k It (I Don't Wan... 1452
34 LINKIN PARK Numb 1231
35 HILARY DUFF So Yesterday 1215
36 PINK God Is A DJ 1193
37 50 CENT P.I.M.P. 1161
38 MYA My Love Is Like...Wo 1126
39 SHERYL CROW First Cut Is The Dee... 1060
40 BEYONCE Me, Myself, And I 1033
41 KELLY CLARKSON Trouble With Love Is 1021
42 KELLY CLARKSON Low 1020
43 JAY-Z Change Clothes 986
44 JOHN MAYER Bigger Than My Body 969
45 GOOD CHARLOTTE Hold On 941
46 WILLA FORD A Toast To Men (f/Ma... 844
47 KILEY DEAN Who Will I Run To? 832
48 YOUNGBLOODZ Damn! (f/Lil Jon) 825
49 BLACK EYED PEAS Shut Up 819
50 DASHBOARD CONFESSIONAL Hands Down 818

Sorry, I couldn't resist. ;)

Of course you know, we'll expect you to update that every week until next December.

[ChartKid]

Here's an interesting thought: If you guys only knew the chart positions of each song throughout the year, which song would you have predicted to be #1 for the year? In other words, didn't know any of their spin totals at all and the only info would be weeks on the chart, peak positions etc, sort of like just listening to AT40 w/o looking up any information?

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

ChartKid said:

Here's an interesting thought: If you guys only knew the chart positions of each song throughout the year, which song would you have predicted to be #1 for the year? In other words, didn't know any of their spin totals at all and the only info would be weeks on the chart, peak positions etc, sort of like just listening to AT40 w/o looking up any information?

I miss those days. I haven't really followed the chart enough to really know. I'd probably still pin #1 on Evanescence though. Assuming I'd be able to follow trends of past AT40 yearend shows.