Year End Top 10 Predictions?

[ChartKid]

Well since there's only about 3 weeks left in the 2003 Chart Year it should be pretty easy to at least have an idea what the year end chart will look like. If anyone wants to share their predictions for the top 10 of 2003, do it in here. I'll make mine shortly.

[JCMF3]

For The R&R Year:
1. 3 Doors Down - When I'm Gone
2. Black Eyed Peas f/ Justin Timberlake - Where Is The Love?
3. Evanescence f/ Paul McCoy - Bring Me To Life
4. 50 Cent - In Da Club
5. Avril Lavigne - I'm With You
6. Justin Timberlake - Rock Your Body
7. R. Kelly - Ignitio (remix)
8. matchbox twenty - Unwell
9. Kelly Clarkson - Miss Independent
10. Jennifer Lopez f/ LL Cool J - All I Have

The one I am most unsure about is #10. It could be Christina's "Beautiful" depending on the DEC spins.

Calendar Year Top 10:
1. Black Eyed Peas f/ Justin Timberlake - Where Is The Love?
2. 3 Doors Down - When I'm Gone
3. Evanescence f/ Paul McCoy - Bring Me To Life
4. 50 Cent - In Da Club
5. Justin Timberlake - Rock Your Body
6. R. Kelly - Ignition (remix)
7. matchbox twenty - Unwell
8. Kelly Clarkson - Miss Independent
9. Avril Lavigne - I'm With You
10. Jennifer Lopez f/ LL Cool J - All I Have

Here, #2 and #3 might be switched.

[Keith3000]

For the year-to-date chart so far (Jan '03 to present):

www.mmr247.com/mmrweb/AllAccess/YTDCharts.asp?format=h1R

The year-end chart used by R&R, AT40, and Rick Dees considers spins from Dec '02 till the end of Nov '03 I think. Anyone have spin totals for last December?

I guess 3DD are sure to have the #1 song of the year, but the runner-up could be either Avril Lavigne or Evanescence, with the next song being either 50 Cent or Black Eyed Peas. Chart postions for songs like "Beautiful", "I'm With You", and "Lose Yourself" will definitely be higher if December spins are taken into consideration; songs like "Where Is The Love", "Crazy In Love", and "Shake Ya Tailfeather" will score lower if December spins are counted. (In both cases, though, the latter song mentioned would not be in the Top 10.) And JCMF3 is right---chances are either "All I Have" or "Beautiful" will make Top 10, but not both.

[singingsparrow]

Just for kicks, we should also predict the Billboard Year-End chart (Billboard Hot 100).

I think they determine their positions there by a number of things:

1) How long a single graced the Top 10 (#1 10 Points, #2 9 Points, #3 8 Points each week, and so on...)

2) Number of weeks it charted the Top 50

3) Single commerical sales

With this in mind, "When I'm Gone" will most likely be #1 on the Billboard Year-End chart also, but matchbox twenty's "Unwell" will also rank very high for the years end, taken that it spent over three months in the Top 10 and still is in the Top 20 now.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

[af18c]

Year End:

1. 3 Doors Down - When I'm Gone
2. Black Eyed Peas - Where Is The Love
3. Evanesence - Bring Me To Life
4. 50 Cent - In Da Club
5. Justin Timberlake - Rock Your Body
6. Matchbox Twenty - Unwell
7. R. Kelly - Ignition
8. Kelly Clarkson - Miss Independent
9. Avril Lavigne - I'm With You
10. Beyonce - Crazy In Love

[af18c]

I think the chance of "Beautiful" getting into the year-end top 10 is slim. its currently at #13 with 120489 with +354 in November...at the end of October, it was +1921. So say it recieves +1900...it will be at 122389 by the end of November...BUT Beyonce "Crazy In Love" is currently at #11 with +2297. I think "Beautiful" may get to #12. But probally not higher, if you look at the year-to-date chart on mediabase.

[ChartKid]

SingingSparrow said:

Just for kicks, we should also predict the Billboard Year-End chart (Billboard Hot 100).

I think they determine their positions there by a number of things:

1) How long a single graced the Top 10 (#1 10 Points, #2 9 Points, #3 8 Points each week, and so on...)

2) Number of weeks it charted the Top 50

3) Single commerical sales

With this in mind, "When I'm Gone" will most likely be #1 on the Billboard Year-End chart also, but matchbox twenty's "Unwell" will also rank very high for the years end, taken that it spent over three months in the Top 10 and still is in the Top 20 now.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

True, but "When I'm Gone" only peaked at #4. It did however spend a while on the chart. Does anyone else here think it could actually end up #1 for BB too? I don't even know what the chart year is for BB though.

[Matt4319]

Argh, where did Black Eyed Peas come from? I thought Evanescence had #2 all wrapped up.

[ChartKid]

Howcome no one thinks they don't have what it takes to be #1 for the year? BEP I mean. They're gaining over 4000 a weak still right? They should pass 3DD in 2 weeks tops and should be able to overtake 3DD's December spins since now people are saying they only had around 1500 instead of the 4424 we originally thought. Or has 3DD pretty much clinched it by now?

[Matt4319]

It's either 4400 or 3500, depending on whether 12/13/02 is counted.

When I'm Gone - 980 spins/week
Where Is the Love - 4373 spins/week

So that's about 3400 spins per week that BEP is gaining. They have about 8000-8500 spins to make up, so they'd need 3 weeks at the current rate... but BEP is losing more than 3DD is right now. I'd put BEP's chances of pulling off the shocker at around 30-35%.

[Matt4319]

af18c said:

I think the chance of "Beautiful" getting into the year-end top 10 is slim. its currently at #13 with 120489 with +354 in November...at the end of October, it was +1921. So say it recieves +1900...it will be at 122389 by the end of November...BUT Beyonce "Crazy In Love" is currently at #11 with +2297. I think "Beautiful" may get to #12. But probally not higher, if you look at the year-to-date chart on mediabase.

You're forgetting mid-to-late-December 2002 spins, which are not shown here, but figure into R&R's 2003 chart year. "Beautiful" got a crapload of spins in that period, so it has a shot at the top 10, but will probably end up at #11.

[Keith3000]

SingingSparrow said:

Just for kicks, we should also predict the Billboard Year-End chart (Billboard Hot 100).

I think they determine their positions there by a number of things:

1) How long a single graced the Top 10 (#1 10 Points, #2 9 Points, #3 8 Points each week, and so on...)

2) Number of weeks it charted the Top 50

3) Single commerical sales

With this in mind, "When I'm Gone" will most likely be #1 on the Billboard Year-End chart also, but matchbox twenty's "Unwell" will also rank very high for the years end, taken that it spent over three months in the Top 10 and still is in the Top 20 now.

Sincerely,
Noah Eaton

I'm not exactly sure how Billboard determines the year-end chart on the Hot 100, (ie. do they use an inverse point system or..?) There's an excellent chance "When I'm Gone" will be in the Top 10 (even Top 5) as well as "Unwell" which seems to be doing even better than "If You're Gone", which was #6 on the 2001 year end chart.

Regarding the #1 song of the year, I'm thinking it might be "In Da Club", though "Ignition" may also have a shot, considering both got lots of recurrent play. "Picture" (which got a lot of sales) and "Crazy In Love" will also be high on the year end Hot 100.

As far as single sales go, the two bestselling singles of 2003, Clay Aikens' "This Is The Night" and Ruben Studdard's "Flying Without Wings", will definitely feature in the year end survey, but will be very low in the chart, due to very little airplay and a fast descent from #1.

To answer ChartKid's question, the Hot 100 year end chart considers chart data from last December, ie. the chart year runs from December to November.

[thirddegree50123]

Could someone post the spin totals including December's spins?

For the R&R year:

1. Black Eyed Peas, "Where Is The Love?"
2. 3 Doors Down, "When I'm Gone"
3. Evanescence, "Bring Me To Life"
4. Avril Lavigne, "I'm With You"
5. 50 Cent, "In Da Club"
6. Justin Timberlake, "Rock Your Body"
7. R. Kelly, "Ignition (Remix)"
8. Matchbox Twenty, "Unwell"
9. Kelly Clarkson, "Miss Independent"
10.Christina Aguilera, "Beautiful"

For the Calendar year

1. Black Eyed Peas, "Where Is The Love?"
2. Evanescence, "Bring Me To Life"
3. 3 Doors Down, "When I'm Gone"
4. 50 Cent, "In Da Club"
5. Justin Timberlake, "Rock Your Body"
6. R. Kelly, "Ignition (Remix)"
7. Matchbox Twenty, "Unwell"
8. Kelly Clarkson, "Miss Independent"
9. Avril Lavigne, "I'm With You"
10.Jennifer Lopez, "All I Have"

As far as Billboard's Year-End Top 10, the only thing I know is that "When I'm Gone" and "Unwell" will be there as well as "Crazy In Love" and "In Da Club" but I have no clue how any of them will place.

[FreakyFlyBry]

1. 3 Doors Down - When I'm Gone
2. Evanescence - Bring Me To Life
3. Black Eyed Peas f/Justin Timberlake - Where Is The Love?
4. 50 Cent - In Da Club
5. Avril Lavigne - I'm With You
6. Justin Timberlake - Rock Your Body
7. Matchbox Twenty - Unwell
8. R. Kelly - Ignition
9. Christina Aguilera - Beautiful
10. Kelly Clarkson - Miss Independent

[tico]

Matt posted the December spins in my Evanescence/3DD topic (which can now be found on page five). "When I'm Gone" had 4424 spins, "I'm With You" had 19,623 spins, "All I Have" had 7497 and "Beautiful" had 29,340 spins. The first three aforementioned are the only top ten songs that had December spins. With December totals, WIG is currently outlasting Evanescence by over 6500 spins. Evanescence, at this point, would also be bested by IWY, whose Dec-current spin total is 166,224. Here's what the top ten looks like with December totals:

When I'm Gone=171285
I'm With You=166224
Bring Me To Life=164766
Where Is the Love=162161
In Da Club=161811
Rock Your Body=157667
Ignition=155172
Unwell=150656
Beautiful=149829
Miss Independent=146851

For the month of November so far, "Bring Me To Life" (1808) and "Where Is the Love" (4407) are, by far, outplaying "When I'm Gone" (983) and "I'm With You" (600). With BEP's furious run, this thing is going to go down to the wire.

[Cerebro]

Keith3000 said:

The year-end chart used by R&R, AT40, and Rick Dees...

Just as a side note, Rick, actually, hasn't used R&R for the past couple of years. Instead, he used a similar Mediabase-generated chart (from a different cut-off date, I'm guessing) that kept recurrents on.

i.e. songs like "Hanging By A Moment", "Drops Of Jupiter", and "Be Like That" all made the 2002 year-end chart due to receiving enough spins. But since they were recurrents for the entire chart year, they were ineligible for inclusion on R&R's chart.

If the trend continues, he'll probably use that chart again this year (or he could surprise us all and actually use R&R's).

[af18c]

i hate Rick Dees

[mst3k]

Billboard hasn't used the inverse point system for their yearend Hot 100 since the big overhaul at the start of the 1992 chart year. Since then, they've just used each song's total sales and airplay points for the year (for the weeks the song is in the top 100).

[Matt4319]

dirty said:

Matt posted the December spins in my Evanescence/3DD topic (which can now be found on page five). "When I'm Gone" had 4424 spins, "I'm With You" had 19,623 spins, "All I Have" had 7497 and "Beautiful" had 29,340 spins. The first three aforementioned are the only top ten songs that had December spins. With December totals, WIG is currently outlasting Evanescence by over 6500 spins. Evanescence, at this point, would also be bested by IWY, whose Dec-current spin total is 166,224. Here's what the top ten looks like with December totals:

When I'm Gone=171285
I'm With You=166224
Bring Me To Life=164766
Where Is the Love=162161
In Da Club=161811
Rock Your Body=157667
Ignition=155172
Unwell=150656
Beautiful=149829
Miss Independent=146851

For the month of November so far, "Bring Me To Life" (1808) and "Where Is the Love" (4407) are, by far, outplaying "When I'm Gone" (983) and "I'm With You" (600). With BEP's furious run, this thing is going to go down to the wire.

The problem with that, though, is that it has come to my attention that my totals are probably off, that an extra December week is being counted (whoops! I need to change my earlier post about "4400 or 3500"... it's probably something like "4400 or 5200").

Another issue is if spins that came in the two weeks that R&R didn't publish a chart weren't counted (but I don't think Nickelback would have been #1 last year without those spins counted, so I'm going to assume that they are).

DISCLAIMER: My December estimates are just that -- estimates. The way I came up with these was taking an R&R chart date (for example, 12/13/02) and figuring out what days of airplay were counted for that chart week.

Traditionally, R&R's week runs Sunday through Saturday, with the chart reflecting that data dated the following Friday.
Therefore, the 12/13/02 chart reflects airplay from December 1-7.
12/20/02 would count airplay from December 8-14.
12/27/03 would count airplay from December 15-21.
01/03/03 would count airplay from December 22-28.

That leaves three more days in December, which I will estimate in a separate column in the table below. Of course, if the 12/6/02 chart is also counted in the 2003 chart year, then it would actually reflect a small number of November 2002 spins as well.

So here are the two scenarios: #1 is with 12/6/02 counted, #2 is with 12/6/02 not counted, and #3 includes 12/6/02 as well as the extra three days of airplay not accounted for by my method.

Title	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3
When I'm Gone	172085*	171285	172685^
I'm With You	168824**	166224	171609^^
Bring Me to Life	164766	164766	164766
Where Is the Love?	162161	162161	162161

*estimated, using 800 spins for the missing week (its trend afterward was 915/1056/1210)
**estimated, using 2600 spins for the missing week (its trend afterward was 3670/4654/5558)
^ using 600 spins for the December 29-31 estimation
^^ using 2785 spins for the December 29-31 estimation

[JCMF3]

Yes, the way that the DEC spins are counted will definitely make an impact on Christina and Avril's final positions. My take on it is that the spins reported on the 12/6, 12/13/ and 12/20 R&R chart count for the 2002-2003 chart year. In that case, Beautiful will probably not make the top 10 because, although it had a lot of spins, it was still climbing up the chart during those three weeks. Same with Avril (who has less spins for that time).

[radiorules]

The two week break will be counted, and at that time Beautiful was getting over 8000 spins a week. If you count those along with december, it's very clear that Beautiful will make the top 10, possibly even #9.

[JCMF3]

radiorules said:

The two week break will be counted, and at that time Beautiful was getting over 8000 spins a week. If you count those along with december, it's very clear that Beautiful will make the top 10, possibly even #9.

Could you please list how you know this? Because I always thought R&R based total spins only on 50 chart weeks...

[radiorules]

So far, Beautiful has 120,489 from January through November

Here are it's spins in the month of December:

12/07 5350
12/14 6193
12/21 7025
=18,568 + 120,489=139,057

Spins from the two week break:

12/28 8013
01/03 8109
=16,122 + 139,057=155,179

Now i am assuming that the spins from the week of 1/3 have already been added onto the 120,489 spins that Beautiful currently has on Mediabase, so...

155,179-8109=147,070

"All I Have" which currenty has 137,000 spins will have 7,000 spins added on from December, meaning it currently has 144,000 spins compared to Beautiful's 147,000 spins. It is impossible for "All I Have" to catch up to "Beautiful" in the 3 weeks left, so therefore, "Beautiful" will be at #10 on the year end chart, and "All I Have" will be #11.

[Matt4319]

JCMF3 said:

Could you please list how you know this? Because I always thought R&R based total spins only on 50 chart weeks...

Here's how...

radiorules said:

The two week break will be counted, and at that time because Beautiful was getting over 8000 spins a week.

In my 2001 year-end issue, here's what the magazine says:

"R&R's exclusive Top 100of 2001 charts are based [on] the total number of plays received by each artist, title, and label for the issues dated December 8, 2000 through November 30, 2001."

That's 52 weeks.

[JCMF3]

We have discussed this before in another thread, but the question is that R&R does not officially put out a chart for two weeks in December. Those two weeks do NOT count toward peak positions or weeks at #1 for a song, etc. It seems silly to me that the magazine, who does not publish an official chart for those two weeks, would then turn around and decide to count those spins for their year-end chart.

The truth is - we don't know 100% how those spins work, and until someone can verify this, we are left here speculating.

And radiorules, your post before is useless. You continue to just spew this nonsense without any substantiation. You have no clue if those two weeks will count or not...

[af18c]

JCMF3 said:

And radiorules, your post before is useless. You continue to just spew this nonsense without any substantiation. You have no clue if those two weeks will count or not...

See Matt...this is exactly what I was talking about...the bi+ching needs to stop!

All radiorules did was state a possiblility for the year-end chart and people flip out because God forbid someone isnt perfectly accurate with information.

[Matt4319]

JCMF3 said:

We have discussed this before in another thread, but the question is that R&R does not officially put out a chart for two weeks in December. Those two weeks do NOT count toward peak positions or weeks at #1 for a song, etc. It seems silly to me that the magazine, who does not publish an official chart for those two weeks, would then turn around and decide to count those spins for their year-end chart.

It also seems silly to me for R&R to count three weeks' spins, not count the next two weeks, and then count the rest. Maybe someone could email R&R and verify it for sure (as was suggested in the last topic about the year-end list )?

[mst3k]

af18c said:

All radiorules did was state a possiblility for the year-end chart and people flip out because God forbid someone isnt perfectly accurate with information.

Well, he did state "The two week break will be counted", when in fact nobody here has verified with R&R whether that's true or not.

I agree everybody needs to chill out, though. :) BREATHE...

[JCMF3]

af18c said:

All radiorules did was state a possiblility for the year-end chart and people flip out because God forbid someone isnt perfectly accurate with information.

No, it wasn't a "possibility". Radiorules stated something as if it were fact, and I do not like people stating facts when they don't know the answer. If it was an opinion, or radiorules was using a hypothetical, then fine. All the power to him. But when you say "will be counted", that is a fact. And I gave him a chance to answer beforehand about knowing this "fact", and he didn't.

Overall - if you're going to defend another member, at least get the facts straight instead of quoting someone else and saying they are way out of line...

And as a final thought - I agree that we need to stop arguing. Things were going very well for a week or so, but as always, when something comes up against radiorules' affinity for Christina (or discontent for Britney), he has to charm in and talk nonsense.

[radiorules]

JCMF3, what i posted was not non sense. You seem to be so biased against my posts simply because they are by me, and i have had enough of that.

Ever since last years 2002 year end chart everyone was talking about how the two week breaks are always counted, now all of a sudden it is being questioned whether or not they count. Give Me A Break! I even remember some debates that if the two week break didn't count then "Complicated" could have gotten #1 on the year end chart instead of "How You Remind Me".

And i don't even understand why you wouldn't want those weeks counted, that's simply not fair at all! Songs don't just freeze when they enter that two week break, they are still played, they still grow (or fall) and they are still heard by millions of people! Not to count them would be silly! I don't know about R & R but Mediabase will count those 2 weeks, and R & R gets their info from mediabase.